Humanity s Top 10 Problems for next 50 years

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1 Humanity s Top 10 Problems for next 50 years 1. ENERGY 2. WATER (= energy) 3. FOOD (= energy) 4. ENVIRONMENT (= energy) 5. POVERTY (~ energy) 6. DISEASE 7. EDUCATION 8. TERRORISM & WAR 9. DEMOCRACY 10. POPULATION* Billion People Billion People 1 We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used, when we created them (A. Einstein)

2 What is Energy? Energy (work): kwh Power (work/time): kw Energy Units (~ units of work and heat): TOE, BTU, Joule, kwh Power: work in terms of time, i.e., momentary measurement: in units of HP, BTU/h, kw Are we running out? (Energy is preserved, except for E=mc 2 ; --> nuclear energy!!) NO, it is a problem of matching Energy Types to time, place, situation 2

3 3 Types of Energy: Electrical, Chemical, Mechanical, Radiation, Heat We can change one form of energy into another Chemical ---> heat ---> mechanical ---> electrical (power station) mechanical--->heat (flint stone, friction) Chemical ---> electrical (battery, fuel cell) Electrical ---> heat (toaster) Electrical ---> heat ---> radiative (incandescent light bulb) Radiative ---> electrical (solar cell) Radiative ---> heat (solar roof heater) but the problem is that mostly we pay a price (< 100% efficiency)

4 World Energy Consumption / yr, Quadrillion = History Projections (2002) 1Btu 1 kj 0.3 Wh Total World Need for Power 2005 ~14 TW(~ boe/day) 2050 ~28 (60?) TW

5 World Power Sources by Type 5 Oil for Gas Coal TW 2 1 Bio mass Hydro Renew Nuclear 0 Fossil fuels ~ 80% of world power ENERGY: 5 J, Wsec; BTU POWER : W = J/sec

6 and... so they say we are running out of fossil fuel well... are we? are the (oil) data real? 6

7 Oil Reserves Reported by OPEC Countries Proved Crude Oil Reserves (Billion Barrels) Saudi Arabia Iran Mexico Iraq United Arab Emirates Year From S. Kurtz, NREL; Source: EIA (Energy Information Administration) 7

8 Energy Reserves and Resources Reserves ( x /( 98 year consumption) Ultimate Resources Oil* Gas Coal ~ 220 ~ * TOP 10 OIL PRODUCERS Arab Peninsula 42 % Arab world + Libya & Iran 68% Canada 16 % Venezuela 7 % Russia 5.5 %

9 Energy Reserves and Resources Reserves ( x /( 98 year consumption) Ultimate Resources Oil Gas Coal ~ 220 ~ 2000 time-independent constant : ~30-50 yrs of oil 9 but remember. the Stone Age did not end because of a shortage of stones Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani, Saudi Oil Minister

10 and... so they say we are running out of fossil fuel well... are we? we are causing global warming well,... I guess we are.. 10

11 0.5 11

12 Temperature over the last 420,000 years Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change CO 2 We are here relative Temp. 12

13 and... so they say we are running out of fossil fuel well... are we? we are causing global warming well,... I guess we are.. we are poisoning our water, air and earth and..., boy, are we!! 13

14 Sources of Energy Conservation (friction, isolation..) STORAGE FUELS,batteries Is there a problem (pollution, global warming,..)? believer: believer sustainables unbeliever trust in OTHERS 14 YES concentrate! renewables? bet on SOLAR don t! fix CO 2 NO NUCLEAR hope for FUSION 200+ yrs COAL (liquefaction/gasification) CO 2 have faith in FISSION Final arbiters: $ (short-term) and J (energy; long-term) analyses

15 Interim Conclusions Fossil fuel resources for many 100s of years!! Alternatives (renewables, nuclear) IF external factors enter e.g., * real-politik (geo-politics) * fear because of too many unpleasantries * TAX on pollution, greenhouse gas emission or breakthroughs in cost ($ and J) of alternatives short-term Technological Advances long-term Basic Science 15

16 Sources of Carbon-Free Power Sustainables: Nuclear * Fission 10 TW: new reactor /day for next yrs Not enough U Mine from seawater? Waste? time-independent: we ll solve it Breeder nuclear proliferation? (Th chain?) 16

17 Sources of Carbon-Free Power Sustainables: Nuclear * Fission 10 TW: new reactor /day for next yrs Not enough U Mine from seawater? Waste? Breeder nuclear proliferation? (Th chain?) * Fusion time-independent : ~30 yrs to prove feasibility 17

18 Sources of Carbon-Free Power Sustainables: Nuclear * Fission 10 TW: new reactor /day for next yrs Not enough U Mine from seawater? Waste? Breeder nuclear proliferation? (Th chain?) * Fusion 18 Renewables (incl. Carbon fixation) too expensive to make impact below ~$100/barrel oil?

19 Energy, A Global Challenge Meeting this challenge requires coordinated action of the world s scientific community, government & industry. QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. Finding ways for efficient, cost-effective production of clean fuels can be science s most important breakthrough but to help it happen we need the basic, fundamental science.. 19

20 now All I m saying is now is the time to develop the technology to deflect an asteroid. 20

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