Global to Local Caribbean Socioeconomic Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Scenarios

Transcription

1 Global to Local Caribbean Socioeconomic Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Scenarios GOLOCARSCE University of the West Indies Trinidad and Tobago Professor John Agard Joint Stakeholders Conference of the ACP-EU Co-operation Programmes 1

2 GoLoCarSce University of the West Indies (UWI) Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (5Cs) Caribbean Agricultural Research & Development Institute (CARDI) Location: Caribbean Sector: Climate Change Keywords: Caribbean, SIDS, downscaling, vulnerability, impacts, adaptation 2

3 Specific objectives Development of a set of locally-relevant scenarios on the socio-economic impacts of climate change on food, water, public health, coastal infrastructure and the environment of Caribbean SIDS and the implications for mitigation and adaptation policy Results achieved Main deliverables 4 integrated multi-scalar scenarios developed from global to regional to local levels Target Groups Final Beneficiaries Global: IPCC, AOSIS, UNFCC Regional: CARIBBEAN COMMUNITY (CARICOM) Local: Governments e.g. Trinidad & Tobago, Barbados, Jamaica 3

4 Caribbean Small Island Scenario Construction Global Downscaled temperature & precipitation, sea level rise Shared Socio-economic Policy Assumption Scenarios Commodity prices e.g. oil & gas, agricultural products, Investment capital Regional Small Island Developing State Scenarios National/Local Tourism economy: e.g. Barbados Industrial economy: e.g. Trinidad Agricultural/Tourism/Mineral economy: e.g. Jamaica John Agard, UWI Projected CC impacts on crops, water availability, forest, coastal protection, tourism etc.

5 RANGE OF PROJECTED ANNUAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE T & T (with respect to baseline) 5

6 End-use water demand including losses (m3) 40 GCM Ensemble Downscaled Precipitation in the 2050s Water Availability - Demand including losses by RCP and historic sustainable yield Sustainable yield in an average year Sustainable yield in a 1 in 15 year drought WEAP 21 MODEL RCP High losses RCP Low losses RCP High losses RCP Low losses RCP High losses RCP Low losses Tourism Agriculture Domestic Government Commercial Losses Sustainable yield - average Sustainable yield - drought By the 2050s under all scenarios Barbados water demand will exceed availability during drought periods if losses are not reduced from the current 40% per annum to at least 15%

7 DECLINING RAINFALL DECREASES LAND SUITABILITY FOR COCOA BY THE 2050s IN RCPs 4.5 & 8.5 Maxent Model Projections

8 PERCENTAGE (%) CHANGE SWEET POTOTA YIELD IN JAMAICA: Depiction of yield changes in warm and dry climate 29,00 Yield Changes (%) Warm & Dry Climate 24,00 19,00 14,00 9,00 4,00-1,00-6,00 SCENARIO/RCP Rainfed Irrigated Warm and dry conditions were found to be un-favourable to future production of sweet potato; Yield and Biomass increases are favoured in elevated CO 2 and under these conditions irrigation gives greater net benefit.

9 PROJECTED SEA LEVEL RISE AND COASTAL INUNDATION IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO Year` RCP 2.6 (low) RCP 4.5 (mid low) RCP 6.0 (mid high) RCP 8.5 (high) cm 38.44cm 40.79cm 43.15cm 5.41cm Difference (RCP2.6 vs 8.5) cm 90.10cm cm cm 51.09cm Potential impact of RCP 6.0 sea level rise on the Petrotrin oil refinery on the west coast of Trinidad in the 2050s Source: S. Baldeosingh et al

10 GDP per capita (Real local currency) GDP per capita (Real local currency) Economic Projection Results for 4 Scenarios GDP per capita BARBADOS Debt-to-GDP ratio BARBADOS Cool Runnings Island in the Sun The Harder they Come Pirates of the Caribbean Probable Default Cool Runnings Island in the Sun The Harder they Come Pirates of the Caribbean GDP per capita JAMAICA 1.8 Debt-to-GDP ratio JAMAICA Cool Runnings Island in the Sun The Harder they Come Pirates of the Caribbean Cool Runnings Island in the Sun The Harder they Come Pirates of the Caribbean 0 0

11 Caribbean Climate Change Scenarios How has the project contributed to strengthening capacity at partner institutions? New computer equipment Enhanced capability to downscale global climate projections to 1 km 2 island scale Enhanced capacity to do climate impact models on agriculture, water availability, public health, forest, coastal erosion New economic models developed for tourism, industrial and agriculture based island economies 11

12 Topic of presentation To what extent did the project influence national/international policies and institutions? Supported negotiations at Paris Agreement to advance SIDS argument for <1.5 O C increase by Provided information for the development of national climate change adaptation plans. 12

13 Caribbean Climate Change Scenarios What are the general lessons learned through the project, including good and replicable practices? It is essential to have an integrated project schedule to keep track of delivery dates, the critical path, and any slipped tasks. Time, cost and scope of the project must be kept connected and in balance. The project personnel with different skills across different departments in the partner instutions must work together as one. 13

14 Caribbean Climate Change Scenarios What impacts have your results had on your partnership in terms of institutional/sectoral/ behavioural/systemic change? My institution is re-examining its project management approach based on feedback from ACP on weaknesses identified. 14

15 Conclusion The project although national and regional in scope contributed to an unexpected global impact in Paris and so exceeded expectations. THANK YOU EC AND ACP! 15