THE CONTEXT FOR PUBLIC TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF STATES: UNIQUE CHALLENGES AND PERSPECTIVES

Transcription

1 THE CONTEXT FOR PUBLIC TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF STATES: UNIQUE CHALLENGES AND PERSPECTIVES Andrew B Clarke, Manager Transport Planning Middle East, Mott MacDonald Stephen Luke Associate, Mott MacDonald Georg Vitt Transport Planner, Mott MacDonald Atef M. Garib, Ph.D. Traffic and Transport Expert, Abu Dhabi Municipality 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Purpose of this Paper The aim of this paper is to explore the context and highlight key public transport initiatives in the Gulf with a focus on Abu Dhabi and Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. It will identify the unique challenges and perspectives to be considered in the development of public transport in the Gulf States. The paper will identify possible features of public transport development in the Gulf, which could inform similar initiatives in Europe and elsewhere in the Middle East. The unique historical and cultural character forms a basis in which development and transport initiatives planned in the next 10 years will be presented. Case studies of how proposed schemes will address the unique challenges faced in the Gulf will be examined. Following this introduction and background to the region this paper goes on to examines the unique challenges facing the development of public transport in Section 2. In Section 3 current public transport proposals are examined in light of these challenges. Section 4 goes on to examine three case studies in more detail focusing on the problems of forecasting public transport in Dubai, developing sustainable transport for the Palm Jebel Ali in Dubai and achieving carbon neutrality for a proposed new city in Abu Dhabi. 1.2 The Gulf States This paper is concerned with the six nations on the Arabian Peninsula that are members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): United Arab Emirates Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Oman Kuwait Qatar Kingdom of Bahrain The GCC nations have a combined population of around 37 million (Source: IMF) and an area of 2.5million km 2 (Source: CIA Worldbook 2007). The total GDP of the Association for European Transport and contributors

2 GCC is 749 billion USD equivalent to a per capita GDP of 20,150 USD (2007, at current prices, Source: IMF). Turkey Syria Cyprus Lebanon Israel Jordan Iraq Kuwait Iran Afghanistan Bahrain Pakistan Egypt Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Oman Sudan Eritrea Yemen Ethiopia Djibouti Somalia Figure 1.1 The GCC States Development in the Gulf States was limited until the large scale extraction of oil started in the 1950 s. The regions economy has remained oil dominated and with the large increases in oil prices this decade economic growth has boomed US$ [billion] United Arab Emirates Saudi Arabia Qatar Oman Kuwait Bahrain Figure 1.2 GDP of the GCC States (at current prices, Source: IMF) Association for European Transport and contributors

3 GCC population has grown almost linear during the past three decades at an average growth rate of approximately 3.8% between 1980 and today Population [million] Figure 1.2 Population of the GCC States (Source: IMF) United Arab Emirates Saudi Arabia Qatar Oman Kuwait Bahrain Thanks to an ongoing strong economy the GCC population is expected to further rise over the next two decades. The Table below shows the growth outlook for the following four GCC member states: Bahrain, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Qatar (Source: Economist Intelligence Unit) Population (million) Bahrain Kuwait U.A.E Qatar GDP (US$ million at market exchange rates) Bahrain 13,342 15,493 24,150 35,755 Kuwait 95, , , ,080 U.A.E. 163, , ,638 1,619,936 Qatar 52,722 92, , ,020 Table 1.1 Growth outlook In most of the countries a steady stream of expatriates is expected to be the main source of population growth. At present, within the GCC, the UAE have the largest percentage of foreign population with expatriates accounting for an estimated 79.9% of the UAE population Association for European Transport and contributors

4 (Source: Economist Intelligence Unit). People from Asia are the dominating group inside the group of expatriates. The population mix within Dubai is critical and is a vital factor to be taken into account in transport planning. Expatriates particularly (i.e. Western, Asian, Indian and Arabic) are a very diverse group regarding travel behaviour, which has been recognized and has begun to be taken into account in recent transport planning. Oman has the lowest percentage of expatriates with approximately 25% of its population being foreign (Source: GCC website). The expatriate population ranges from low-paid labourers to extremely well paid executives which has lead to a wide income disparity within the population in many of the GCC states. 1.3 Transport in the Gulf States The rapid expansion of the economies after this was served by road based transport. Virtually no rail infrastructure was provided and bus services were limited. The very high population growth rates and increases in wealth have led to unprecedented increases in car ownership in recent years. In Dubai the population is growing at around 6% per annum whilst the number of registered cars is growing at 17% per annum and only 7% of journeys are made by public transport. Based on analysis undertaken by PTV 1 (Heidi, 2007) some of the unique travel characteristics in Dubai are outlined below and compared, for illustration, to some typical UK travel characteristics (UK travel characteristics are taken from the National Travel Statistics (Department for Transport, 2006) and other sources. Only 17 % of the population live in households which have no vehicle available, (3 % of nationals and 20 % of non-nationals) compared to typically around 30% of households in UK Metropolitan areas (32.8% in Greater Manchester (GMTU 2004)). It is notable that a high percentage of Asian expatriates often have no car available (24 %) making this group more dependant on public transport options. Some notable features of the mode split in Dubai include the high proportion of trips by taxi (mostly western expatriates) and the high proportion by company bus (mostly non-western expatriates) The PTV analysis of travel statistics also reflects some of the unique transport mode characteristics in Dubai: Bus Bus users have a value of time of around 12.5 AED/hour (c /hr). This is only about 30% - 40% of the UK value of time. 1 This was based on a critical assessment of earlier transport surveys and transport models. The PTV review identified areas of uncertainty with previous work. The findings reported nevertheless give a good illustration of the travel characteristics in Dubai Association for European Transport and contributors

5 In addition: Less than 1 % of the bus users had a car available. 71 % of the bus users earned less than 2500 AED (520 ) and 1 % earned more then 6000 AED (1250 ). 58 % of the bus trips were trips to/from work. 84 % of the bus users use the bus regularly or fairly regularly. Only 1 % of the bus users were local nationals, 8 % were western expatriates. 91 % of the bus users were non-western expatriates. About 90 % of bus users did a direct bus trip and walked to and from the bus stop. 8 % used another bus beforehand and 6 % said they used a connecting bus afterwards. 90 % of the bus users had an access and egress time of less than 10 minutes. The statistics confirm that in Dubai virtually all bus users were captive to public transport and that the demand is concentrated within low income non-western expatriates. The bus network is however well tailored to its market (with access and egress times less than 10 minutes with little need for significant interchange) Car Car drivers have: a value of time of around 28.5 AED/hour (c. 6 /hour). This compares reasonably well with UK values of time (it is about 80% of the value of time in the UK (2002 prices and values)) (Webtag 2007) Two other important aspects of travel demand relate to car ownership and household size. In Dubai: Assuming an average household size of 5.8 for locals and 3.7 for expatriates (Heidi, 2007). c.f. household size of 2.35 in Greater Manchester (GMTU), suggests good potential to serve household travel demand by public transport. From the 2003 household survey (Heidi, 2007), one can derive an average number of cars in a local national household of 2.46 and in an expatriate household of 1.4. c.f. about 1.0 per household in Greater Manchester (GMTU, 2004) although the rapid GDP growth since 2003 has resulted in a significant increase in new car registrations and it is likely that car ownership is now significantly higher than the 2003 statistics According to a recent survey (Gulftalent.com) Dubai is the most congested city in the Middle East with people spending one hour and 45 minutes commuting to and from work every day. In comparison, New York City has the longest commute in the U.S. with an average of 1 hour and 17 minutes for the journey to and from work (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Values for 2004). According to a 2003 study, the country with the longest commute in Europe are the UK with an average commute time of 45 minutes per day, closely followed by Germany and the Netherlands with 44 and 43 minutes respectively. It should be noted that the values Europe are average times for Association for European Transport and contributors

6 whole countries and individual regions and cities are likely to deviate significantly from the average. Commuters in Berlin for example commute for just over an hour per day (2001). Italy USA Spain France EU Average Netherlands Germany United Kingdom Jeddah, Saudi Arabia Khobar, Saudi Arabia Manama, Bahrain Muscat, Oman Abu Dhabi, UAE Riyadh, Saudi Arabia Amman, Jordan Kuwait, Kuwait Beirut, Lebanon Dammam, Saudi Arabia Doha, Qatar Berlin, Germany Sharjah, UAE New York City, USA Cairo, Egypt Dubai, UAE 00:00 00:14 00:28 00:43 00:57 01:12 01:26 01:40 01:55 Figure 1.3 Average commute times Association for European Transport and contributors

7 2. UNIQUE CHALLENGES This section identifies some of the unique features involved in developing public transport in the Gulf. 2.1 Climate This is a critical consideration as summer temperatures can rise to nearly 50 o C. The issues of station access/egress and interchange cannot be under estimated and is a strong factor in people choosing to drive or use door to door taxi services. 2.2 Culture As section 1 illustrated car ownership and use is embedded within the society and the perception (and reality) is that public transport (especially bus) is a low class form of travel. Whilst this is not unique to the Gulf the perceptions of public transport and preferences for private transport are particularly strong in the region. 2.3 Population The socio-economic characteristics of the population which varies significantly across the Gulf States primarily because of influence of expatriate populations (i.e. constituting about 80% of the population in the UAE and only 25% of the population in Oman) and ranges from cheap foreign labour to the rich banking sector creates unique challenges in passenger affordability and user requirements. Schemes such as metro projects also need to consider longer term population trends. 2.4 Growth The unprecedented wealth and growth is leading to massive pressure on the transportation system that was developed for roads only. Most development has occurred in last forty year and has outstripped the ability of the planning system to keep up. 2.5 The Future With very oil dominated economies the Gulf States face a very uncertain future once oil reserves are depleted. This is reflected in the current strategies of economic diversification and also a growing focus on the use of alternative and renewable energy sources on which Abu Dhabi is the leading proponent. 2.6 No Precedents There is no post opening evidence to model travel behaviour on with respect to new and improved public transport provision. Association for European Transport and contributors

8 3. RISING TO THE CHALLENGE 3.1 Introduction The rapid increase in road congestion has led to the serious consideration of PT options by all the Gulf States. Not surprisingly, given its congestion problems, Dubai is leading the field in the planning and ongoing provision of new services and this section focuses on the current proposals in Dubai and neighbouring Abu Dhabi the largest of the Emirates and the richest city in the world. 3.2 Dubai The Master Plan The Emirate of Dubai is undergoing rapid transformation from what was originally an 18 th century fishing village to a city of global standing. Recent development has spread westwards and when completed, the Emirate will be one large conurbation spreading from the Sharjah border in the east along the coast to the Abu Dhabi Border. The southern extent of the city will run some 20 kilometres inland to the desert. Dubai will consist of two primary city centres, Old Dubai to the west, and the Dubai Waterfront to the east. Dubai s recent development is characterised by themed projects, isolated tourism focused centres and private beaches. In much recent development outside of Old Dubai there is little sense of a traditional functioning city containing such elements as: mixed use precincts and neighbourhoods; walkable, pleasant and interconnected streets; attractive, inviting and useable public spaces; a range of housing and employment opportunities; integrated public transport and so on. These issues have been recognized and are being addressed through the Dubai Masterplan (which sets minimum standards for mode share by public transport of 27%) and other initiatives including the development of the Dubai Metro and major new developments such as the Palms and Dubai Waterfront which incorporate rapid transit systems as integral parts of their transport strategies. Figure 3.1 Dubai Public Transport System Association for European Transport and contributors

9 The Dubai PT system is being designed around an LRT system part of which is under construction and will be the largest driver less system of its type in the world. Being benchmarked to the systems in Hong Kong, Copenhagen, Paris and Singapore Dubai Metro aims to become the most advanced rail system in the world. Figure 3.2 Dubai Metro During initial studies, conducted in 1997, the need for a rail system to relieve growing motor traffic and support continuing urban development was identified. Groundworks began in February 2006, centred around the 52.1km long Red Line. This first Line is scheduled to open on September The second line, the Green Line, is scheduled to open in The Red Line runs from Dubai to Abu Dhabi borders and will have 29 stations. Along the famous Sheikh Zayed Road the Red Line runs on a viaduct while the 17.6km long Green Line is build mostly underground. In the city centre both lines will run underground. Two transfer stations at Al Ittihad Square and Burjuman will be common to both lines. In no location will the tracks cross the public highway, ensuring fully safe mode segregation. The Metro network is planned to be fully integrated within the overall Public Transit network operated by the Dubai Municipality complementing other modes of transport e.g. buses, taxis and abras ( small wooden ships ). Bus routes will be organised around the backbone provided by the rail systems, taxi stations and park-and-ride facilities will be included in key Metro stations. Furthermore, a common fare policy and collection system across the various PT modes is envisaged as well as the possibility of payment using a smart-card. The trains will offer a standard class, a women and children only section as well as an exclusive 1 st class section and a state-of-the-art Passenger Information System is planned. Association for European Transport and contributors

10 Already extensions to the network are underway with inclusion of the Purple and Blue lines. The 49km long Purple Line, which received approval in May 2007, will be an express track linking Dubai s new Airport (Dubai International Airport) with Jebel Ali Airport. It will have only eight stations and is expected to be operational by Once in full operation, the Dubai Metro System is projected to carry approximately 1.2 million passengers on an average day, and 355 million passengers per year. By 2020 Dubai RTA expects 318km of Metro lines to be in operation. The Road Transport Authority (RTA) in Dubai is attempting to widen the bus market with improved buses (GV picture of bendy bus) and innovations such as air conditioned bus stops. 3.3 Abu Dhabi The Master Plan Figure 3.3 Prototype Air Conditioned Bus Stop in Dubai Over the last few years, Abu Dhabi City and its environs have experienced tremendous growth in all aspects of urban life. The booming economy has led to increase in population, and a concomitant rise in ownership of cars and traffic growth. The road network in Abu Dhabi is a modern rectilinear system. Major arterial streets typically have dual 3-lanes carriageways. Abu Dhabi Municipality, during the past 20 years constructed major infrastructure projects to cope with the region s growth. Such projects upgraded the road network from a simple network to a more complex one, connecting various residential and other developments around Abu Dhabi. Also the region s growth resulted in building new towns around Abu Dhabi city. Such changes increased greatly the number of potential origins and destinations in the region. Recently, Abu Dhabi has finalized the update of the master transport plan. It has been prepared with a scope to the year The plan is a long term strategy for ensuring efficiency of Abu Dhabi s Transportation System. Its purpose first and foremost, is to help facilitate Abu Dhabi s growth, prosperity, and overall quality of Association for European Transport and contributors

11 life. The plan addresses all aspects of Abu Dhabi s future transportation needs based on adapting the total mobility management concept. The plan proposed a concept to improve public transport services. The concept consists of three elements. Enhancement of the local bus system to provide 20-minutes headways to all areas, improve bus operations, and increase information and marketing. Introduce a high-frequency transit corridor extending from East Musaffah to the CBD providing 5 minutes to 10 minutes headways, local and express services, and timed transfers to local buses, and Introduce grade separated transit circulator in the CBD providing frequencies of less than five minutes on an elevated monorail or other transit technologies with fully air conditioned stations and boarding platforms. Also, the plan recommended conducting a comprehensive and detailed public transport master plan to better define transit options that can cope up with the fast growth for the region and that can support elevating traffic congestion. Such plan will address how mass transit system of higher capacity or quality of service could replace or augment the existing bus service in specific areas, corridors, and activity centers. Supported by appropriate demand management policies, the enhanced public transportation system will attract a substantially higher ridership; provide a broader set of variable transportation alternatives to the public, and help manage congestion and mobility in light of growing traffic volume. The aim of proposed comprehensive study is to develop a comprehensive public transport master plan for Abu Dhabi. Such plan will be integrated with the public transport sub-systems proposed by the new areas (land developers) developers. Also, it should set all required standard and specifications for such sub-systems. The project will focus on defining and preparing all required policies, strategies, and actions to attract users and increase transit ridership. This will attract substantially higher rider ship and provide a broader set of viable transportation alternatives to the travelling public. Also, it will help manage congestion and mobility in light of growing traffic volumes. The need to conduct such a study has become more important and urgent in light of the major planned communities that have recently been announced. These include Saadiyat Island, Al Reem Island, Raha Beach, and mina Zayed. Such developments are not only very large, but also have made the development of an effective public transportation system (usually in the form of a light-rail transit system) apart of their transportation plans. It is therefore essential that a public transportation study for Abu Dhabi address the integration of the proposed transit systems for these developments within the city-wide public transport system. Also, it is essential that the study consider the findings of the current on going Public Transportation Studies being conducted by the Planning Department. Figure 3.3 shows some of the key transport elements of the master transport plan including rail freight, heavy rail, meto light rail, surface light rail and an extensive bus network Association for European Transport and contributors

12 Association for European Transport and contributors

13 3.4 Developments Dubai Palm Jebel Ali Palm Jebel Ali is a man-made archipelago which lies to the east of the Dubai Emirate, adjacent to the Abu Dhabi Border. It is one of a series of reclamation projects which feature prominently along the coast of Dubai and is the second installment of Nakheel s Palm trilogy. The Palm Jebel Ali comprises several islands The Trunk, The Spine and Fronds, four Crescents and The Crown assembled in the shape of a palm tree. Each island will offer its own unique character, experiences and environments. The Palm Jebel Ali is currently under construction. It is planned to be a mixed use development incorporating a range of residential homes, leisure and retail facilities with a total population around 270,000 people by 2013; 80,000 of which will live on the trunk and fronds and 190,000 on the outer ring. The diameter of the outer ring is approximately 7.5km and the circumference is approximately 17km. The width of the 'trunk' (i.e. below the spine) of the palm is approximately 750m and the length is 3.5km and the whole length is 5km. In a similar fashion to the Palm Jumeriah (which has only one fifth the projected population) the most dense residential development will be on the trunk, where retail hubs will also be located, with an as yet unidentified major leisure facility on the crown. The Palm is part of the Dubai Waterfront development which is intended to be home to upwards of 1m people: A city in its own right with a business centre in the Madinat Al Arab. 1. Al Ras 2. Corniche 3. Riviera 4. Palm Boulevard 5. Madinat Al Arab 6. Peninsula 7. Uptown 8. Downtown 9. The Boulevard 10. The Exchange 0km 5km 10km Figure 3.4 Dubai Waterfront and the Palm Jebel Ali Association for European Transport and contributors

14 Neither heavy rail or subway options are considered applicable to the Palm. Both heavy rail and subway/metro options are more appropriate to carry very high volumes of passengers over longer distances than would be necessary within the Palm Jebel Ali development. The density of development and complexity of trip making expected within the Palm Jebel Ali requires a mode which can offer a relative close spacing of stops a role that neither heavy rail nor subway is well suited to. Moreover, the capital costs of both the heavy rail and subway systems are significantly higher than the other modes considered. The transport strategy for the Palm is based on three trunk public transport corridors adopting a bus based or tramway system for the crescents and segregated LRT for the central trunk and spine. These three corridors will be part of an integrated public transport strategy including high quality pedestrian routes, cycle links local bus services and taxis. The LRT stations will be enclosed and climate controlled including a range of services and facilities. It will be extremely important to design the major transport interchanges to maximise integration between modes. We envisage a number of integrated At Grade LRT, Bus, Water Taxi and PRT interchanges with air conditioned pedestrian links, provided with travelators where distance necessitates. In the early stages of development a dedicated busway on the Trunk would be feasible, when travel demand is low and as the build out increases it is currently expected that light rapid transit options will be implemented in the central trunk corridor. Figure 3.5 Potential PT Strategy for Palm Jebel Ali Dubai Palm Jumeriah A monorail is an expensive alternative to LRT but is being developed on the Palm Jumeriah mainly to provide a high profile, futuristic and exciting solution to link the large Atlantis resort on the crown of the Palm to the mainland. Association for European Transport and contributors

15 The Palm Jumeriah monorail is currently designed to allow for a capacity of 6,000 passengers per hour per direction and will have four stations, 5.4km of track and 27 cars in its final configuration is estimated to cost USD410m equivalent to USD 76m per km. Figure 3.6 Construction of Palm Jumeirah Monorail Masdar Carbon Neutral City, Abu Dhabi As in Dubai developers are responsible for the transport systems within their developments. One state of the art development is the Masdar Initiative, launched 2006, a global cooperative platform to develop and promote technology, capabilities and industries focusing on renewable energy. The initiative includes a Clean Tech Fund worth 250 million US-Dollar, a special free zone for renewable energy, a university as well as a Clean Development Company with the aim to reduce carbon emissions. Leading universities, research institutes, private companies as well as the Abu Dhabi government participate in the initiative. The first project as result of the Masdar Initiative is a new 6 square kilometer sustainable development which attempts to become the world s first zero carbon and zero waste community. Figure 3.7 Model of Masdar City Association for European Transport and contributors

16 Masterplanned by Fosters + Partners, Masdar City (Masdar resource in Arabic) the development follows the principles of a dense walled city providing space for 50,000 residents which will live on streets modelled on traditional souks and medinas. During the first phase a large photovoltaic power plant will be constructed which later becomes the site for the city s second phase, allowing for urban growth yet avoiding low density sprawl. The new city, scheduled to open in 2009, will be connected to its surroundings by a combination of existing and new roads as well as new rail and public transport routes. Rooted in a zero carbon ambition, the city itself is car free. A dense PT network allows for a maximum distance of 200m to the nearest transport link. In addition the PT network is envisaged to be complemented by a personalised rapid transit system. Shaded walkways and narrow streets aim to create a pedestrian friendly environment despite the extreme climate with temperatures of up to 50 C. The city will be surrounded by a green belt of palms and mangroves to provide the raw material for bio-fuels. Also the surrounding land will contain wind, photovoltaic farms and research fields so that the city will be entirely self-sustaining. Figure 3.8 PRT Concept Vehicle Figure 3.9 PRT in Masdar Carbon Neutral City Association for European Transport and contributors

17 5 CONCLUSIONS Some of the unique challenges facing the Gulf states and solutions have been identified to include Climate summer temperatures necessitate an almost door to door transport system, whilst this has in the past been provided by the car public transport now needs to take up the challenge. This requires greater emphasis on very high quality transport and land use access and integration strategies adopting measures such as o Airconditioned walk links, shaded routes, travelators o Providing the full spectrum of connecting transport modes (bus, taxi, PRT, cycle, pedicabs, smartcars etc) o Adopting the principles of Transit Orientated Development, making stations destinations in their own right and providing public facilities along the main walk links between stations and the wider area to knit public transport into the heart of new developments o Land use planning, including the Abu Dhabi and Dubai masterplans and new developments such as MASDAR which are signalling a move towards reducing the demand for travel and developing a more balanced transport system Culture - The concept of sharing transport highlights particular cultural nuances and particular strategies are required to address cultural aspects. These include o The provision of very high quality public transport a public display of wealth o Media and marketing campaigns to raise the profile of public transport so it is not seen as a second class form of travel o The provision of VIP facilities and women and children facilities Population and growth - The population mix is culturally very diverse and public transport needs to recognize and target each sector of the population if it is to be successful. Population and development growth has outstripped the provision of transport infrastructure in some locations (i.e. Dubai) where transport provision has almost solely focused on highway (car based) solutions. A flexible public transport system able to develop a network quickly and responsively is needed The future (sustainability) whilst the Gulf has been dominated by an oil based economy there has a structural shift in providing a more diverse and sustainable energy strategy. In terms of implications for the transport sector this is highlighted in innovative strategies such as the MASDAR carbon neutral city. This will be one of the first such developments in the world and should be monitored closely. Overall the lack of precedents in planning for public transport in the Gulf are a particular challenge and the opening of the Dubai Metro in 2009 should, and is, expected to be closely monitored to understand how the population responds to this new form of transport.