Knowing our Place. North West Tasmania Regional Profile

Transcription

1 Knowing our Place North West Tasmania Regional Profile 1

2 Contents About the Regional Profile 3 Methodology 4 Some Key Factors influencing Land Use 5 Findings 6 Population Size and Characteristics Household Composition and Housing Preferences Migration Trends Income Levels and Economic Well Being Industry Trajectories and Entrepreneurial Culture Labour and Skills Profile Work Choices and Mobility Topography and Natural Systems Conclusion 15 Appendix One: Detailed Quantitative Data by Theme 16 Appendix Two: Detailed Qualitative Data by Theme 99 2

3 About the Regional Profile The North West Tasmania Regional Profile has been prepared as a background document to inform a Strategic Framework for Land Use Planning for North West Tasmania. The Regional Profile comprises data from an extensive desktop review of demographic, social and economic data about the region, structured according to 8 key theme areas: Population, Household Composition, Migration, Income and Economic Well Being, Industry, Labour and Skills, Work Choices and Mobility, and Topography and Natural Systems. For each theme area, researchers have distilled three or four key points from the data as Key Messages for land use planning. These Key Messages, along with the background data informing them, were presented for discussion in local government fora held across the region in March Additional qualitative and local insights were recorded from the fora discussions themselves. These insights provided additional depth and nuance to the Regional Profile. The North West Tasmania Regional Profile therefore gives a picture of the region as portrayed both in the statistical data, and in the voices of local people in conversation with the data and with one another. A regional profile is always necessarily a work in progress, for change is constant and more perspectives can always be included. Overall, however, this profile provides a sound overview of our region, a reality check for framing our planning conversations, and a basis for ongoing conversations into the future. 3

4 Methodology The research for the North West Tasmania Regional Profile was undertaken as follows: 1) First, we identified a list of key factors that might influence residential, commercial and industrial land-use needs in a region (See Page 5). The first eight became the eight theme areas for our Regional Profile. The ninth area became our Values Framework, and the tenth (External Drivers) informed the design of land-use planning platforms. 2) Next, we collected and analysed relevant datasets for each theme area to gain a sense of current profile and trends for the region and its 9 component LGAs. 3) Based on the analysis and interpretation of these data, we prepared the Knowing Our Place booklet. This detailed booklet contained Regional Profile information on each theme (see Appendix 1), as well as a draft Values Framework. The booklet was structured to facilitate a conversation with forum participants. Participants were invited by each Council: they were primarily elected Councillors, selected staff, and a few community delegates. 4) The Knowing Our Place booklet was distributed to all North West LGAs and their forum participants in March Nine LGA fora were held that month, averaging 12 participants per forum, 111 participants total. 5) In each forum, the key messages from the statistics were presented and discussed. Queries and responses from each group were documented as part of this process (see Appendix 2). 6) After the LGA forums, additional data requested by forum participants were collected and added to the Profile (see Appendix 1). The qualitative comments from fora participants were transcribed and organised by theme (see Appendix 2). Participants insights for each 4 theme have been summarised in this document as Key Messages from the LGA Fora.

5 Some key factors influencing future land use and infrastructure needs The following were identified by the project team early in the process as important potential influencers: 1) Population Size and Characteristics 2) Household Composition and Housing Preferences 3) Migration Trends 4) Income Levels and Economic Well Being 5) Industry Trajectories and Entrepreneurial Culture 6) Labour and Skills Profile 7) Work Choices and Mobility 8) Topography and Natural Systems 9) Values, Beliefs and Preferences 10) External Drivers Themes 1-8 provide the structure for the Regional Profile. Theme 9 (Values, Beliefs and Preferences) is addressed in the Values Framework. 5 Theme 10 (External Drivers) informs the development of strategic regional platforms.

6 Regional Profile: Findings About the Findings On the following pages, we present the findings of the Regional Profile by theme. Each page represents a theme that is potentially relevant to land use planning. Every thematic page has two columns. The left hand column, Key Messages from the Statistics, describes key findings from the desktop analysis of quantitative, statistical data. The right hand column, Key Messages from the LGA Fora, summarises the strongest messages that emerged from group discussions in the LGA fora, based on qualitative local experiences and insights. Together, these two sets of points provide a more nuanced picture of our region than either quantitative data or qualitative local knowledge alone. The Key Findings provide a quick thematic snapshot of the characteristics and trends in our region which are particularly relevant to consider in a land-use planning process. Further detail and background data are provided in the Appendices. Appendix 1 provides detailed quantitative data from the desktop analysis by theme, including some additional data requested in the LGA fora. Appendix 2 provides a detailed listing of comments and insights from the LGA fora. 6

7 1) Population Size and Characteristics Key Messages from the Statistics Our population is small yet potentially growing; Our population is dispersed but also concentrated; Our population is aging but certainly not old. Key Messages from the LGA Fora Projections of a stable population/ slight growth are realistic, but many factors can affect actual future population. Some of these factors can be influenced (e.g. by policy, local action), some not. Discussion of population size and concentrations in turn raise deeper questions about what is desirable, and what is valued. 7

8 2) Household Composition and Housing Preferences Key Messages from the Statistics Families with children are still our most common household type; But other household types are significant and growing. Average household size is falling; And current housing stock may be providing limited choice. Key Messages from the LGA Fora Housing choices reflect cultural preferences and personal choices at least as much as demographic factors. Choice is limited by available stock and densities in turn limited by private investment and public policy decisions. Availability, affordability and choice are all issues, though they play out differently in different local contexts. 8

9 3) Migration Trends Key Messages from the Statistics Our region attracts in migrants from interstate and overseas, but in small proportion (less than 10% of the population). Most in-migrants are NOT retirees; we have high net gains of workingage people. Most out-migration is of secondary/tertiary age young people (15-18). Net migration to the region is low, but positive; however, there is significant variation across the region. Key Messages from the LGA Fora Rural lifestyle and climate are key attractors for in-migrants. Other attractors include work opportunities, affordability, and facilities. Migration takes place in a larger context of high mobility: e.g. return migrants, temporary workers (including professionals), mobile workers, youth. 9

10 4) Income Levels and Economic Well Being Key Messages from the Statistics Middle-income households predominate in the region; there are very few high-income households. This pattern holds true across the region, with only very minor variation. We have a significant proportion of low-income households, including families with children. Lower housing costs help reduce, but not eliminate, housing stress. Key Messages from the LGA Fora Income levels overall are seen to be in line with the cost of living in the region (less so for King Island). Affordable housing (for rental/purchase) is needed in some areas. The link between industry and income is not always direct as people do not necessarily live (or spend) where they work. 10

11 5) Industry Trajectories and Entrepreneurial Culture Key Messages from the Statistics Our region s key industries are agriculture and manufacturing, particularly, agrifood-related manufacturing. Job losses in agriculture have been balanced by job gains in manufacturing, which has grown faster than elsewhere. Tourism is growing but largely low-quality employment; Mining is high-quality but volatile employment. Microenterprises predominate. Key Messages from the LGA Fora There are opportunities and interest in small scale, high value manufacturing, particularly in agri-food. This has implications for how we think of industrial locations and land-use requirements. Regional-scale data can disguise the local importance of particular industries (e.g. mining on the West Coast). 11

12 6) Labour and Skills Profile Key Messages from the Statistics Our formal skills profile is low, though we have strengths in trade and engineering skills. Our workers clearly have informal, on-the-job skills and know-how. However, formal and professional-level skills are rare, even in our key industries. Key Messages from the LGA Fora Qualifications and skills are present in the region but not always recognised. Well paid labouring jobs may provide a disincentive for formal training, and grow industries dependence on decision-makers elsewhere. There is a relationship between skills and mobility as people move to access learning, and skilled people move in and out of the region. 12

13 7) Work Choices and Mobility Key Messages from the Statistics Labour force participation is low, particularly for women, suggesting untapped skills in the region. People do not necessarily work (or play) in their LGA of residence; communities cross LGA boundaries. Mobility issues thus need to be considered across, as well as within, local government boundaries, and with reference to various forms of transport. Key Messages from the LGA Fora There is significant cross-lga movement in the region; LGA boundaries are not significant. Mobility appears to be a key aspect of the region s lifestyle. Only very remote areas (West Coast, King Island) do not share this trend, and here, there may still be considerable mobility among local centres. It is possible to observe a diverse range of live/ work decisions linked to mobility and/ or lifestyle choices. 13

14 8) Topography & Natural Systems Key Messages from the Statistics The varied topography of the region has influenced existing settlement and land use patterns, and it will continue to do so. Equally, the advantages (e.g. rainfall) and limitations (e.g. slope) of topography and natural systems influence land use choices. Land use choices in turn influence natural systems, including indicators such as biodiversity, soil health, water quality, etc. Key Messages from the LGA Fora Two-dimensional planning approaches ignore the importance of topography (e.g. limited flat land) to settlement and land-use choices in this region. There is a clear relationship between natural systems and regional industries such as agriculture and tourism. Understanding land capability is important for evaluating the agricultural importance of rural land parcels. 14

15 Conclusions The Regional Profile, organised by eight theme areas, provides insights into who we are, allowing us to ground our further analysis in a clear understanding of present circumstances fact rather than myth. While there are some significant intra-regional differences flagged in the Profile, there are also important region-wide patterns and trends. The combination of quantitative analysis and the qualitative insights of fora participants created a more nuanced Regional Profile than either alone. Fora participants engaged actively with the data provided in the Knowing Our Place booklets and provided valuable discussion, local knowledge, and insights. Ideally, similar opportunities should be provided to other groups throughout the region, to increase the range of local knowledge informing our Regional Profile. Frequently, discussions about who we are led into statements or debates about what we value. What is desirable: A small population or a big one? Dispersed residences or high densities? Big industries or boutique enterprises? Flexibility or absolutes? Change or continuity? Choice or obligation? These discussions very quickly entered the terrain of values, and reinforced the importance of developing a Values Framework for the Regional Planning Project. 15

16 Appendix One Detailed Quantitative Data by Theme 16

17 1) Population Size and Characteristics Key Messages from the Statistics Our population is small yet potentially growing; Our population is dispersed but also concentrated; Our population is aging but certainly not old. 17

18 Data from the Desktop Analysis North West Tasmania , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 Total Population in 1996 Total Population in

19 Remember this? (2001) ABS 2001 Medium Series Population Projection North West Tasmania Because of the volatility of net interstate migration flows, three long-term assumptions are made. For Tasmania these assumptions provide high, medium and low levels of losses due to interstate migration. (ABS 2001:12) 19

20 Compare with. (2008) DCAC 2008 Medium Series Population Projection North West Tasmania Projected Growth LGAs: Circular Head, Burnie, Devonport, Latrobe, Kentish Projected Non-Growth LGAs: West Coast, Waratah/Wynyard, Central Coast, King Island Projections are illustrations of how population would change over time if certain assumptions were to hold true for the period of projection. (DCAC 2008) 20

21 What influenced these trends? And what could change them? Population by LGA - Ten Year Trend Central Coast Devonport Latrobe Kentish Burnie Waratah- Wynyard King Island West Coast Circular Head 21

22 North West Tasmania Land Area = 22,492.6 km 2 Population Density = 4.9 people per square kilometre. A dispersed population. Yet looking closer one with highly concentrated pockets. People per sq km 22

23 NW Tasmania ranges from ASGC remoteness classifications inner regional, to outer regional, remote and very remote. What are the implications of this diversity? Population Density (Persons per sq km) West Coast Waratah/Wynyard Latrobe 14.8 King Island Kentish Devonport Circular Head Central Coast Burnie % of the North West population lives in three LGAs: Central Coast, Devonport & Burnie 23

24 Our older population is certainly growing over time (though this is not so unusual) Change in Older Population (aged 65 & over) % 40.0% North West Tasmania Australia 24.9% 20.0% 22.9% 35.0% 37.0% 35.5% 38.6% 30.0% 25.0% 27.6% 27.6% 25.3% 20.0% 21.0% 23.4% 15.0% 10.0% 13.8% 5.0% 0.0% Burnie Central Coast Circular Head Devonport Kentish King Island Latrobe Waratah/Wynyard West Coast 24

25 But most residents aren t old. Population Age Breakdown - North West Tasmania % 20.4% 11.8% % Children % Youth % Working Age % Older Population 52.0% Population Age Breakdown - Australia % 19.8% 13.6% % Children % Youth % Working Age % Older Population 53.2% 25

26 The proportion of older people varies quite a bit across the region. Older Population (65+) as a Proportion of Total Population, % North West Tasmania Australia 15.7% 14.9% 13.3% 17.2% 17.6% 15.0% 14.9% 16.1% 16.1% 16.5% 10.0% 11.9% 12.3% 11.4% 5.0% 0.0% Burnie Central Coast Circular Head Devonport Kentish King Island Latrobe Waratah/Wynyard West Coast 26

27 2) Household Composition and Housing Preferences Key Messages from the Statistics Families with children are still our most common household type; But other household types are significant and growing. Average household size is falling; And current housing stock may be providing limited choice. 27

28 Data from the Desktop Analysis Household Composition Australia, % 24.4% 44.0% Families with Children Families without Children Lone Person Households Other Households 26.4% 28

29 About 40% of households in the region are families with children. Over a quarter are lone-person households. Household Composition in North West Tasmania % 25.5% 39.4% Families with Children Families without Children Lone Person Households Other Households 29.4% 29

30 Here is a snapshot of household composition across all LGAs in the region: Household Composition in North West Tasmania by LGA, % 45.0% 40.0% 40.2% 39.7% 42.3% 38.6% 43.0% 39.7% 39.3% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 27.1% 26.5% 31.6% 24.3% 28.8% 23.5% 28.4% 27.3% 29.9% 20.4% 31.1% 30.8% 27.9% 32.2% 22.4% 30.6% 25.4% 33.9% 25.9% 30.6% Families with Children Families without Children Lone Person Households Group Households 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 2.3% 1.6% 1.5% 2.4% 1.9% 3.2% 1.7% 1.9% 2.9% 0.0% Burnie Central Coast Circular Head Devonport Kentish Total number of households in the region: 42,199 Average household size: 2.4 people (down from 2.6 in 1996). King Island Latrobe Waratah/Wynyard West Coast 30

31 Over time, both the number and proportion of families with children has been declining (in most of the region) Percentage Change in Families with Children Over Time North West Tasmania Tasmania Australia -9.0% -3.9% 6.7% 45.0% 35.0% 25.0% And in Tasmania too but NOT in Australia as a whole. 15.0% 5.0% 0.1% 3.3% -5.0% -8.9% -9.0% -8.9% -7.0% -10.2% -15.0% -25.0% Burnie Central Coast Circular Head Devonport Kentish King Island -30.8% Latrobe Waratah/Wynyard West Coast -30.3% -35.0% 31

32 Meanwhile, we are seeing more of other kinds of households: Percentage Change in Lone Person Households Over Time North West Tasmania Tasmania Australia 16.0% 15.3% 21.5% 45.0% 35.0% 29.7% 25.0% 15.0% 11.8% 16.6% 22.8% 14.8% 21.2% 17.9% 19.1% 5.0% 2.8% -5.0% -15.0% -25.0% Burnie Central Coast Circular Head Devonport Kentish King Island Latrobe Waratah/Wynyard West Coast -35.0% 32

33 Including couples with no children: Percentage Change in Families without Children Over Time North West Tasmania Tasmania Australia 16.9% 16.6% 21.6% 45.0% 35.0% 25.0% 15.0% 12.9% 23.4% 19.9% 7.8% 27.0% 13.9% 30.5% 17.4% 11.6% 5.0% -5.0% -15.0% -25.0% Burnie Central Coast Circular Head Devonport Kentish King Island Latrobe Waratah/Wynyard West Coast -35.0% 33

34 Over 60% of dwellings in NW Tas house only one or two people. Number of Persons Resident in Dwellings North West Tasmania % 5.9% 2.3% 26.3% 14.5% % Dwellings with 1 Person % Dwellings with 2 Persons % Dwellings with 3 Persons % Dwellings with 4 Persons % Dwellings with 5 Persons % Dwellings with 6 or more Persons 37.2% 34

35 Yet 3/4 of the region s housing stock consists of houses with three or more bedrooms. Dwelling Types in North West Tasmania 2006 % Houses with less than 3 bedrooms 1.7% 7.4% 2.9% 1.1% 12.5% % Houses with 3 bedrooms 18.2% % Houses with 4 bedrooms or more % Houses with number of bedrooms not stated % Flats, Units, Apartments % Semi-detached, Row, Terrace Houses 56.3% % Other Dwellings (Caravans, tents, attached to shop/office) 35

36 3) Migration Trends Key Messages from the Statistics Our region attracts in migrants from interstate and overseas, but in small proportion (less than 10% of the population). Most in-migrants are NOT retirees; we have high net gains of working-age people. Most out-migration is of secondary/tertiary age young people (15-18). Net migration to the region is low, but positive; however, there is significant variation across the region. 36

37 Our region gained about 1000 people from overseas, and over 7,500 people from interstate, between 2001 and NW Tasmania Population Moved from another SLA in Tasmania Moved in from interstate Moved in from overseas Were in same SLA 5 years ago 73,086 1,026 7,729 12,698 37

38 Yet most of our population was stable within their home LGA, or moving within Tasmania. NW Tasmania Population % 13.4% 1.1% 8.2% Moved from another SLA in Tasmania Moved in from interstate Moved in from overseas Were in same SLA 5 years ago 38

39 We attract people from a range of ages. 90% of IN-migrants to our region are under age 65. Well over half (62%) are under age 45. Inter-state and International Migrants to NW Tasmania ( ) by Age 5 to 14 14% 7% 2%1% 16% 10% 15 to to to to 54 14% 19%. 17% 55 to to to

40 OUT-migration in our region is notable among young people aged 17 or 18; or aged 15 or 16 for King Island and Circular Head. All LGAs in the region have lost young people in the age bracket - but some more than others: Net Migration of Youth (aged years) by LGA Burnie Central Coast Circular Head Devonport Kentish King Island Latrobe Waratah- Wynyard West Coast

41 Across the region, net migration (In-migrants minus out-migrants) is negative for youth (15-24), but positive for working-age people and children. Net Migration of Population in North West Tasmania Children Youth Working Age Older Population Overall, it is low (net gain of 27 people) Based on Dept of Treasury and Finance net migration calculations,

42 Most LGAs in the region had negative migration in Burnie, Devonport and Kentish turned the trend positive in , while Latrobe continued to attract in-migrants over both periods. Net Migration of Total Population by LGA and Burnie Central Coast Circular Head Devonport Kentish King Island Latrobe Waratah-Wynyard West Coast

43 Some LGAs seem to be more attractive to families and working people: Net Migration of Children (aged 0-14 years) by LGA Burnie Central Coast Circular Head Devonport Kentish King Island Latrobe Waratah- Wynyard West Coast

44 Net Migration of Working Age People (aged years) by LGA Burnie Central Coast Circular Head Devonport Kentish King Island Latrobe Waratah- Wynyard West Coast

45 Some are attractive specifically to the young, year old cohort: Net Migration of year olds by LGA Burnie Central Coast Circular Head Devonport Kentish King Island Latrobe Waratah- Wynyard West Coast

46 Others to older people: Net Migration of Older Population (aged 65+ years) by LGA Burnie Central Coast Circular Head Devonport Kentish King Island Latrobe Waratah- Wynyard West Coast

47 Also, observe the net migration of young workers and nearing retirement cohorts: Net Migration of year olds by LGA Burnie Central Coast Circular Head Devonport Kentish King Island Latrobe Waratah- Wynyard West Coast -400 Net Migration of year olds by LGA Burnie Central Coast Circular Head Devonport Kentish King Island Latrobe Waratah- Wynyard West Coast

48 4) Income Levels and Economic Well Being Key Messages from the Statistics Middle-income households predominate in the region; there are very few high-income households. This pattern holds true across the region, with only very minor variation. We have a significant proportion of low-income households, including families with children. Lower housing costs help reduce, but not eliminate, housing stress. 48

49 Data from the Desktop Analysis Median individual income 2006 ($/weekly) $369 $398 $ NW Tasmania Tasmania Australia Our median individual income is $369/ week. Australia-wide, the median is $

50 Gross Weekly Household Income Regional, State & National Comparison 35% 30% 27% 28% 27% 28% 28% 30% Over a quarter (27%) of our households have gross incomes less than $500/week. 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 7% 24% 9% 19% 23% 16% % $0-499 % $ % $ % >$2000 We have few highincome households particularly compared with the proportion Australia-wide. Most of our households are middle income. 0% North W est Tasmania Austral ia 50

51 Looking across the region, there is surprisingly little variation in this pattern. Around a quarter sometimes a bit more of all households are low-income (<$500/week). Under 10% are high income (>$2000/week). The rest are middle-income. There are fewer low-income households in King Island and Circular Head (due to cost of living?). There are fewer high-income households in Kentish. 51

52 Household Income - Proportion of Low Income and High Income Households by LGA, % 35% 30% 27.7% 27.8% 28.4% 27.2% 28.5% 28.9% 25% 20% 22.8% 20.6% 24.7% Low Income Households High Income Households 15% 10% 5% 6.6% 6.8% 7.5% 6.6% 4.6% 9.8% 7.8% 6.4% 6.4% 0% Burnie Central Coast Circular Head Devonport Kentish King Island Latrobe Waratah/Wynyard West Coast 52

53 Across the region, about 11% of families with children have incomes under $500/week. Percentage of Families With Children Whose Gross Weekly Income Is Under $ % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 9.9% 6.1% 10.5% 12.0% 9.8% 12.3% 9.1% 11.3% 13.3% 11.10% 10.4% 8.7% 0.0% Circular Head King Island Waratah Wynard Burnie Central Coast Devonport LaTrobe Kentish West Coast Northwest Tasmania Australia 53

54 SEIFA scores suggests that the region is relatively disadvantaged none of our LGAs are in the top 50% nationally. SEIFA Index of Relative Socio-Economic Advantage and Disadvantage NW Tasmania LGAs 2006 Latrobe (M) King Island (M) Central Coast (M) Burnie (C) Waratah/Wynyard (M) Devonport (C) Kentish (M) Circular Head (M) West Coast (M) About 55% of LGAs in the country are higher 922 About 75% of LGAs in the country are higher About 79% of LGAs in the country are higher About 85% of LGAs in the country are higher Yet be aware fewer very-wealthy people, and fewer formally credentialed skills, will give a lower SEIFA rank

55 Housing stress (housing costs 30% or more of a household s gross income) is an issue in some parts of the North West, but it is not as acute as in some other parts of the state. However, around 13% of households on our coastal strip experience housing stress and between 4-12% of households elsewhere in North West Tasmania. Anglicare s (2005) report on the private rental support service charts a high frequency of housing stress among their clients in North West Tasmania between 2000 and

56 It may help that our housing loan and rent payments tend, on average, to be lower than elsewhere in the state and nationally. 30% Monthly Housing Loan Repayment as a Proportion of Dwellings being Purchased in North West Tasmania with State and National Comparison, % 20% 15% 13.8% 17.1% 16.0% 14.2% North West Tasmania Tasmania Australia 10% 6.6% 7.2% 5% 0% 4.8% $1-$249 $250-$399 $400-$549 $550-$749 $750-$949 $950-$1,199 $1,200- $1,399 $1,400- $1, % 4.4% $1,600- $1, % $2,000- $2, % $3,000 and over Monthly Loan Repayment 56

57 30% Weekly Rent Paid as a Proportion of Dwellings being Rented in North West Tasmania with State and National Comparison, % 25% 23.3% 22.8% 20% 15% North West Tasmania Tasmania Australia 10% 10.1% 10.0% 5% 0% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% $0-$49 $50-$99 $100-$139 $140-$179 $180-$224 $225-$274 $275-$349 $350-$449 $450-$549 $550 and over Weekly Rent Payment 57

58 Levels of Dependence on Welfare payments - As requested in LGA Fora In March 2009, about 2739 people are recorded as job seekers in receipt of Newstart or Youth Allowance Payments from offices in North West Tasmania (DEWRR March 2009, Labour Market and Related Payments: A Monthly Profile, p.21). This represents 4% of the region s total population aged between 15 and 64, and only about 25% of total clients receiving these allowances in Tasmania. According to the same source (2009, p.2), there were 592,524 recipients of these payments in all of Australia in March 2009 or about 4.4% of the total population aged between 15 and 64. Unless people from North West Tasmania are accessing these payments from offices outside this region, these data would suggest that our region does not demonstrate high welfare dependence among job-seekers. Other non-employment-related payments such as disability and aged pensions, and parenting payments, would need to be considered separately. 4% Population aged North West Tasmania 96% Newstart or Youth Allowance recipients, March 2009 Nonrecipients 58

59 5) Industry Trajectories and Entrepreneurial Culture Key Messages from the Statistics Our region s key industries are agriculture and manufacturing, particularly, agrifood-related manufacturing. Job losses in agriculture have been balanced by job gains in manufacturing, which has grown faster than elsewhere. Tourism is growing but largely lowquality employment; Mining is highquality but volatile employment. Microenterprises predominate. 59

60 Main Employing Industries for the Region % 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 14% 12% Manufacturing Retail trade 10% Health care & social assistance Agriculture, forestry & fishing 8% 7% Education & training 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% Main Employing Industries for the Region % 11% 10% 9% 7% 6% 4% 2% 0% Manufacturing Retail trade Agriculture, forestry & fishing Health care & social assistance Education & training 60

61 Our main employing industries have not changed much over time. Manufacturing is the biggest employer, then retail trade. Retail trade has grown a bit faster. Percentage Change in Employment by Industry North West Tasmania, % 100.0% 93.7% 50.0% 43.2% 24.4% 17.5% 21.3% 21.3% 10.2% 16.8% 18.7% 14.0% 11.2% -11.4% -17.7% -21.3%-20.6% -20.6% -8.1% -12.4% 3.2% 0.0% -50.0% Manufacturing Retail trade Health care & social assistance Education & training Accommodation & food services Agriculture, forestry & fishing Construction Public administration & safety Transport, postal & warehousing Wholesale trade Other services Administrative & support services Professional, scientific & technical services Mining Financial & insurance services Rental, hiring & real estate services Electricity, gas, water & waste services Arts & recreation services Information media & telecommunications 61

62 Comparing NW Tas with elsewhere ( ) Our employment growth in manufacturing has been higher over the period than elsewhere, while our employment losses in agriculture have been similar. Retail and accommodation have grown, though not as much as elsewhere. Meanwhile, administration has skyrocketed (even compared with elsewhere) with employment nearly doubling. Professional and scientific services GREW (over 18%), - as elsewhere. Both mining a traditional sector and ICT a new economy sector FELL over the period in NW Tas. This period was followed by a mining boom but how sustainable is it? 62

63 Manufacturing Retail trade Health care & social assistance Agriculture, forestry & fishing Education & training Accommodation & food services Construction Transport, postal & warehousing Public administration & safety Wholesale trade Other services Administrative & support services Professional, scientific & technical services Mining Financial & insurance services Rental, hiring & real estate services Electricity, gas, water & waste services Information media & telecommunications Arts & recreation services Percentage Change in Employment by Industry of Employment Regional, State and National Comparison, % 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% North West Tasmania Tasmania Australia 63

64 Top employing industries for LGAs Manufacturing Health Care and Social Assistance Accommodation and Food Services Agriculture Mining This map shows the top employing industry for each LGA by gender. Manufacturing clearly predominates, though heath care/ social assistance is a significant employer for women. Food and beverage manufacturing is the largest published component of manufacturing in NW Tas about a third of manufacturing s total sales and service income (ABS 2005). 64

65 The retail sector has the largest number of firms that are significant employers (with 20 or more staff). Number of Businesses with 20 or more staff by Industry Sector NW Tasmania, 2007 PERSONAL AND OTHER SERVICES ELECTRICITY GAS AND WATER SUPPLY 0 0 COMMUNICATION SERVICES 3 CULTURAL AND RECREATIONAL SERVICES EDUCATION FINANCE AND INSURANCE MINING 9 HEALTH AND COMMUNITY SERVICES 12 WHOLESALE TRADE CONSTRUCTION PROPERTY AND BUSINESS SERVICES 27 ACCOMMODATION CAFES AND RESTAURANTS 33 MANUFACTURING 39 TRANSPORT AND STORAGE 42 AGRICULTURE FORESTRY AND FISHING RETAIL TRADE

66 However, retail and tourism are not the high earning jobs. High income earners: mining & public service jobs Mining (70%) Only 2.4% of all workers are employed here. Electricity, gas, water & waste services (51%) Less than 1% of workers here Education and training (36%) 7% of all workers employed here. Indicator: Proportion of employed people earning $1000 or more gross income per week. Public administration/safety (31%) 6% of workers here Low income earners: tourism, retail & the arts Accommodation and food services (4%) 7% of all workers employed here Retail (6%) 12% of workers employed here Arts and recreation services (7%) 66

67 Agriculture, forestry and fishing have the largest number of businesses, as well as the second largest number of significant employers in the region. Number of Businesses in NW Tasmania By Industry Sector ELECTRICITY GAS AND WATER SUPPLY 12 EDUCATION 27 MINING 54 COMMUNICATION SERVICES 66 CULTURAL AND RECREATIONAL SERVICES 102 WHOLESALE TRADE 216 PERSONAL AND OTHER SERVICES 231 HEALTH AND COMMUNITY SERVICES 315 ACCOMMODATION CAFES AND RESTAURANTS 321 FINANCE AND INSURANCE 324 MANUFACTURING TRANSPORT AND STORAGE CONSTRUCTION 1038 RETAIL TRADE 1128 PROPERTY AND BUSINESS SERVICES AGRICULTURE FORESTRY AND FISHING

68 Proportion of Businesses by Industry NW Tasmania % 4.0% 5.3% 12.7% 16.3% 13.8% 27.6% 15.5% AGRICULTURE FORESTRY AND FISHING PROPERTY AND BUSINESS SERVICES RETAIL TRADE CONSTRUCTION TRANSPORT AND STORAGE MANUFACTURING FINANCE AND INSURANCE ALL OTHER INDUSTRIES < 4% each 68

69 Overall, only 1% of all businesses in the region are major employers (hiring 50 or more employees) (N=108). Well over half (58%) of all businesses in the region do not hire labour. Number of Businesses by Employing Size in NW Tasmania Non employing

70 Microenterprises predominate. Proportion of Businesses by Employing Size NW Tasmania % 0.3% 0.9% 14.2% 2.9% 24.0% 57.6% Non employing

71 And this holds true across the entire region.. Percentage of businesses with fewer than 20 employees By LGA % 95.7% 94.4% 93.8% 95.8% 97.7% 96.6% 93.2% 97.7% 97.8% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Burnie (C) Devonport (C) Latrobe (M) Central Coast (M) King Island (M) Waratah/Wynyard (M) West Coast (M) Circular Head (M) Kentish (M) 71

72 6) Labour and Skills Profile Key Messages from the Statistics Our formal skills profile is low, though we have strengths in trade and engineering skills. Our workers clearly have informal, on-the-job skills and know-how. However, formal and professional-level skills are rare, even in our key industries. 72

73 Less than half (47%) of our region s working-age population aged holds any post-school qualification (Australia-wide, the figure is 59%). But the trend over time is more encouraging Percentage of Population over age 15 Holding a Post-School Qualification, % 35% 30% 25% 23% Percentage of Population Holding Post School Qualifications % 32% 26% 30% 36% 30% 35% 39% % 15% % % 0 North W est Tasmania Austral ia 0% North W est Tasmania Australia 73

74 And in some areas we have strengths Percentage of total population over age 15 holding trade or other certificates: well above the national average 20% 15% 19.4% 17.8% 16.7% 10% 5% 0% North West Tasmania Australia Percentage of total population over age 15 with a qualification in engineering / related technologies: over the national average 10% 8.7% 7.8% 8.5% 5% 0% North West Tasmania Australia 74

75 Our skills strengths reflect our employment profile. 20% 18% % Employed in Professional Work - Regional, State & National Comparison 20% 18% 20% 18% % Employed in Skilled Trades - Regional, State & National Comparison 16% 16% 16% 15% 14% 14% 13% 14% 12% 12% 10% 10% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% North West Tasmania Australia 0% North West Tasmania Australia 75

76 Yet, do not always match.. 13% of all employed people (16% of employed men, and 10% of employed women) in North West Tasmania are managers. Percentage of the population of the Northwest (over age 15) that hold a qualification in management: 5.1% 10% of all employed people and 18% of employed women in North West Tasmania work in the health and social services sector. Percentage of the population (over age 15) that hold a qualification in health: 3.6%...In human welfare studies: 1.9% Manufacturing is our biggest employer in North West Tasmania it employs 14% of our working population. Percentage of people employed in the manufacturing industry who hold no form of post school qualification: 54% 76

77 In key industries, over half the workforce has no formal qualification. 3,500 Qualifications of Manufacturing Workers NW Tasmania (2006) 3,362 3,000 2,500 2,169 2,000 1,500 1, Postgrad Grad Dip or Grad Cert ,926 Bachelor Degree Adv Dip & Diploma Certificate No Qualification 1,070 PERSONS 2,292 FEMALES MALES MALES FEMALES PERSONS 77

78 Qualifications of Agriculture/ Fishing/ Forestry Workers, NW Tasmania, ,500 2,000 2,310 1,500 1, Postgrad Grad Dip or Grad Cert Bachelor Degree Adv Dip & Diploma Certificate No Qualification 1,622 FEMALES MALES PERSONS MALES FEMALES PERSONS 78

79 Even while their occupations are quite diverse, suggesting the know-how is there. Occupations in the North West Manufacturing Industry, , Managers Professionals Technicians & trades workers Community & personal service workers Clerical & administrative workers 1,742 Sales workers Machinery operators & drivers Labourers 1,

80 Our highly educated workers are concentrated in particular industries. Highly Educated Workers (Possessing a Bachelor's Degree or Higher) By Industry 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, ,649 1, MALES FEMALES PERSONS 80

81 And fields of qualification in the region are highly gendered. 81

82 Manufacturing Workers by Gender, ,535 Manufacturing Workers By Age, , % % % % % % % 82

83 Public and Private Sector Data As requested in LGA Fora 85% of our employment is in the private sector. The State government dominates public sector employment Proportionally more women (18% of employed women ) than men (11% of employed men) work in the public sector. Private and Public Sector Employment in North West Tasmania, , Commonwealth Government State/Territory Government Local Government Private Sector 37,009 83

84 7) Work Choices and Mobility Key Messages from the Statistics Labour force participation is low, particularly for women, suggesting untapped skills in the region. People do not necessarily work (or play) in their LGA of residence; communities cross LGA boundaries. Mobility issues thus need to be considered across, as well as within, local government boundaries, and with reference to various forms of transport. 84

85 Just under a third of our population (over age 15) is employed full time. Employment Status of Population Aged 15 and Over North West Tasmania, % 8.2% 4.5% 16.5% 32.3% Employed Full Time Employed Part Time Unemployed Not in the labour force Other/Not stated 85

86 Compare with the profile Australia-wide. Employment Status of Population Aged 15 and Over Australia, % 33.1% 36.6% Employed Full Time Employed Part Time Unemployed Not in the labour force Other/Not stated 3.2% 16.9% Our part-time employment profile is similar to elsewhere but we have fewer people employed full time, and more people not in the labour force 86

87 Part-time employment is on the rise, in the North West as elsewhere Percentage Change in Employment Status Total Population Aged 15 and Over % 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% 20.8% 23.8% 19.7% 11.1% 3.6% -57.0% -53.2% -2.9% 0.6% 1.8% Employed Full Time Employed Part Time Unemployed Not in the labour force Tasmania -4.4% Australia North West Tasmania -30.0% -40.0% -35.0% -50.0% -60.0% 87

88 Gender matters. Less than a fifth of all women in North West Tasmania are employed full time, and nearly half are not in the labour force Employment Status of Women Aged 15 and Over North West Tasmania, 2006 Employment Status of Men Aged 15 and Over North West Tasmania, % 7.7% 4.0% 19.8% Women in the NW are more likely to be involved in sole parenting, earn less and have increasingly been participating in VET and Higher Education (Skills Tasmania 2008: 33) 23.0% Employed Full Time Employed Part Time Unemployed Not in the labour force Other/Not stated 31.1% 5.0% 8.7% 9.8% 45.4% Employed Full Time Employed Part Time Unemployed Not in the labour force Other/Not stated Meanwhile, nearly half of men are employed full time. Less than a third are not in the labour force 88

89 Across the region, King Island and Circular Head show high levels of full-time employment Profile of Employment Participation for Total Population Aged 15 and Over Employed Full Time, 2006 North West Tasmania Australia 60% 32.6% 32.3% 36.6% 50% 40% 40.4% 46.2% 30% 31.6% 30.7% 30.5% 30.7% 33.3% 31.0% 35.5% 20% 10% 0% Burnie Central Coast Circular Head Devonport Kentish King Island Latrobe Waratah/Wynyard West Coast 89

90 While Waratah/Wynyard, Devonport and Central Coast have the highest proportion not in the labour force. Profile of Employment Participation for Total Population Aged 15 and Over Not in the Labour Force, % North West Tasmania Australia 38.5% 36.9% 33.1% 40% 35% 30% 38.7% 39.8% 31.5% 40.5% 37.1% 36.7% 41.6% 35.2% 25% 20% 25.1% 15% 10% 5% 0% Burnie Central Coast Circular Head Devonport Kentish King Island Latrobe Waratah/Wynyard West Coast 90

91 Labour force participation of older workers overall is comparatively low 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Persons aged years by Employment Status - Regional, State & National Comparison % 49% 47% 46% 53% 40% % Employed % Unemployed % Not in Labour Force Though it may be increasing as the workforce ages 20% 10% 3% 3% 2% 0% North West Tasmania Australia 91

92 Highly qualified workers Of slightly over 10,000 people in the region with diploma-level qualifications or higher, - A quarter are not in the labour force. - About 47% work full time. For the age cohort, there are about 1800 highly qualified people. - 37% are not in the labour force - About 35% work full time. The six main activities of those not participating in the labour force are: Retired or voluntarily inactive; Performing home duties or childcare; Attending an educational institution; Own illness, injury or disability; Travel, holiday or leisure activity; and Looking after an ill or disabled person. Tasmania has a higher share of those who are retired and voluntarily inactive, and have a disability or handicap, but a smaller share of those with home duties or undertaking child care, and still in education. (Skills Tasmania 2008:54) 92

93 It is not uncommon for people to work outside their LGA of residence. Percentage of Central Coast working residents who work in Burnie: 20% 20% Percentage of Burnie working residents who work in Central Coast: 3% 3% Percentage of Waratah-Wynyard working residents who work in Burnie: 41% 41% Percentage of Kentish working residents who work in Devonport: 30% 30% 52% of households in the region have 2 or more motor vehicles. 93

94 Additional Mobility Data As requested in LGA Fora Burnie (usual residents) Central Coast Work in Burnie Work in Central Coast Work in Devonport Work in Kentish 76% 3% 2% less than 1% 20% 46% 18% less than 1% Work in Latrobe less than 1% Work in Waratah/ Wynyard Work in West Coast 8% less than 1% 3% 2% less than 1% Devonport 4% 6% 69% 1% 9% less than 1% Kentish 3% 4% 30% 41% 8% less than 1% less than 1% less than 1% Work elsewhere Not stated Total 6% 4% 100% 7% 4% 100% 7% 4% 100% 10% 4% 100% Latrobe 3% 4% 38% 2% 38% less than 1% less than 1% 10% 4% 100% Waratah/ Wynyard West Coast 41% 1% 1% less than 1% less than 1% 0 less than 1% less than 1% less than 1% 0 less than 1% 43% less than 1% 8% 4% 100% 86% 7% 5% 100% Commissioned data from ABS based on 2006 Census responses. Data are not included for Circular Head or King Island but can be requested separately. 94

95 About 8% of households have no motor vehicles. Only 6% of employed people in NW Tasmania use walking or buses as their main means of travel to work. However, of employed people with a disability, 19% rely on buses or walking to get to work. Research shows that people with certain characteristics undertake a lower than average number of trips because of personal limitations including age, income and health, which affect their ability to use, afford and access transport services. These characteristics are: Adults who do not have access to a car; Persons aged over 60 years; Persons on a disability pension Adults on a low income Adults not in the labour force Young people below 17 years; and Persons enrolled in an educational institution. (Cradle Coast Integrated Transport Strategy 2006:35) Less than 1% of the population bicycle to work regularly and of those who do, 89% are men. 95

96 8) Topography & Natural Systems Key Messages from the Statistics The varied topography of the region has influenced existing settlement and land use patterns, and it will continue to do so. Equally, the advantages (e.g. rainfall) and limitations (e.g. slope) of topography and natural systems influence land use choices. Land use choices in turn influence natural systems, including indicators such as biodiversity, soil health, water quality, etc. 96

97 Only about 27% of the Region is private land while a huge proportion, around 50%, is public land reserved mainly for conservation and recreation. Most of the rest is State Forest (23%), with about half of this available for production forestry. Around 14% of the Region, over half the private land, is used for agriculture, and about 4% is currently under plantation on State and private land. Other land uses include hydroelectricity production, mineral exploration and mining. Marine farming is a growing industry in some estuarine areas. (CCNRM Strategy 2005:24) Steep river valleys The Region has remarkably varied landforms, soils and rocks with abundant high-grade mineral deposits (CCNRM Strategy 2005:4) The Region has a high biodiversity with numerous ancient and endemic species. Extensive areas of relatively undisturbed and diverse vegetation provide important habitat for fauna (CCNRM Strategy 2005:6). Abundant water 97

98 The linear form of towns and cities along the North- West coast means that the Bass Highway provides the key transport link for 75% of the Region s population. (Cradle Coast Integrated Transport Strategy 2006:40) People per sq km The difficulties associated with the steep, broken topography and deep, fastflowing rivers with thickly wooded slopes combined with impenetrable tea tree flats around the coastal estuaries has produced the ribbon development eastwest along the coast and inland, north-south along the ridge lines. (NW Tasmania Regional Profile 2008:3) 98

99 Appendix Two Detailed Qualitative Data by Theme 99

100 1) Population Size and Characteristics Key Messages from the LGA Fora Projections of a stable population / slight growth are realistic, but many factors can affect actual future population. Some of these factors can be influenced (e.g. by policy, local action), some not. Discussion of population size and concentrations in turn raise deeper questions about what is desirable, and what is valued. 100

101 Data from the LGA Fora The dispersed nature of our settlements is valued, though it brings a need to accept that with low population densities, transport is not as easy (Kentish). Many factors influence outcomes and predictions. (Latrobe) What influence might the economic downturn have in future population trends? (Waratah-Wynyard) A change in economic circumstances could affect growth projections (Central Coast). Climate is an attractor for this region and will continue to be with climate change. Lifestyle is important space, feel of the place. Housing here is affordable Tasmania is the most affordable state (Latrobe). Current population trends are likely to continue unless we create change. If things do change, the official population figures may not reflect it (King Island). Our attractive lifestyle and climate create a marketing opportunity (Central Coast). 101