Employment Growth Projection in Mining Operations (less oil and gas), Skills Australia Resources Sector Analysis October 2011

Transcription

1 Growth Projection in Mining Operations (less oil and gas), Skills Australia Resources Sector Analysis October 2011

2 Key Points in mining operations is projected to grow substantially to Considered by broad occupation, the largest job growth is likely to be for machinery operators and drivers, followed by technicians and trade workers. The individual occupations with the best job prospects are for stationary plant operators, mechanical engineering trades workers, engineering professionals, and natural and physical science professionals. Introduction In response to recommendation 1.3 of the National Resources Sector Taskforce (NRSET) report, the Australian Government requested that Skills Australia provide an annual report on the status of skills shortages in the resources sector. Skills Australia: 2011 interim report on resources sector skill needs was the first report prepared by Skills Australia to update the work undertaken by The National Resources Sector Taskforce (NRSET). This paper estimates potential employment growth in the mining operations sector by occupation from 2010 to 2016.In its 2011 Interim Report Skills Australia had estimated that mining operations employment would increase to (an increase of jobs) between 2010 and Data Sources The occupational composition of jobs in the mining operations sector is based on Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2006 census data. Base year employment is based on ABS labour force data. As noted in the Skills Australia 2011 Interim Report, there were an average of employees in the mining operations in The Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE), formally known as the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), published its latest projections on likely trends in output of mining commodities in May 2011 (Table 2). Skills Australia used this information to analyse expected output growth for each commodity for each year over and to estimate potential employment growth in mining operations. Modelling approach mining operation skills Skills Australia has followed the mining operations model developed by the National Resource Taskforce (NRSET) which provided annual employment projections each year from 2008 to The mining operations model used by the Taskforce was based on the approach used by the National Institute of Labour Studies (NILS). This model assumes that mining operations employment growth follows growth in output over the projected time period. For NREST, commodity projections from BREE, ACCESS and BIS Shrapnel were averaged and used to produce growth estimates. The commodity projections in this paper are based on the BREE projection model. The employment growth projections for each commodity have been added together to obtain the total employment growth in the mining operations sector. The current model assumes no change in labour productivity or the occupational composition of jobs in the mining operations sector for each year over the relatively short projection time periods. 2 Growth Projection in Mining Operations (less oil and gas),

3 Modelling outcomes mining operations skills Skills Australia suggests that employment growth in mining operations will increase by persons from 2010 to 2016, with annual average growth in employment in mining operations of 7.9 per cent over this period. Figure 1 illustrates the potential employment growth at the broad occupation level from 2010 to 2016, with the largest growth anticipated to be for machinery operators and drivers, followed by technicians and trades workers. For machinery operators and drivers, there is a strong demand for stationary plant operators and delivery drivers (Figure 2). For technicians and trades workers, strong employment growth is expected for mechanical engineering trade workers and building and engineering technicians (Figure 3). Further modelling of employment growth by detailed occupation is presented in Table 1. Table 2 lists the BREE model s projected growth in output in major mining commodities over the next six years. These data were used to underpin employment projections in this paper. Skills Australia analysis shows a strong relationship between growth in output and employment in the mining operations sector for the period (Figure 4). Figure 1: Projections of employment growth by broad occupation in mining operation employment (less oil and gas) 2010 to 2016 Managers 8055 Professionals Technicians and Trades Workers Community and Personal Service Workers 422 Clerical and Administrative Workers 7947 Sales Workers 344 Machinery Operators And Drivers Labourers 4691 Other Growth Projection in Mining Operations (less oil and gas),

4 Figure 2: Projections of employment growth in machinery operators and drivers in mining operation employment (less oil and gas) 2010 to 2016 Machinery Operators and Drivers, nfd Machine and Stationary Plant Operators, nfd Machine Operators Stationary Plant Operators Mobile Plant Operators 1383 Road and Rail Drivers, nfd Automobile, Bus and Rail Drivers Delivery Drivers Truck Drivers 2248 Storepersons Figure 3: Projections of employment growth in top five fastest growing technicians and trade workers occupations in mining operation employment (less oil and gas) 2010 to 2016 Building and Engineering Technicians 3447 Fabrication Engineering Trades Workers 1144 Mechanical Engineering Trades Workers 5477 Electricians 2292 Miscellaneous Technicians and Trades Workers Growth Projection in Mining Operations (less oil and gas),

5 Table 1: Projections of employment growth in mining operation employment (less oil and gas) , by occupation Occupation Base (2010) Growth Projected (2016) Managers 16,990 8,055 25,045 Professionals 29,272 13,877 43,149 Professionals, nfd Arts and Media Professionals, nfd Arts Professionals Media Professionals Business, Human Resource and Marketing Professionals, nfd Accountants, Auditors and Company Secretaries 1, ,251 Financial Brokers and Dealers, and Investment Advisers Human Resource and Training Professionals 2,635 1,249 3,884 Information and Organisation Professionals 1, ,581 Sales, Marketing and Public Relations Professionals Design, Engineering, Science and Transport Professionals, nfd Air and Marine Transport Professionals Architects, Designers, Planners and Surveyors 1, ,905 Engineering Professionals 9,775 4,634 14,409 Natural and Physical Science Professionals 7,882 3,737 11,619 Education Professionals, nfd School Teachers Tertiary Education Teachers Miscellaneous Education Professionals Health Professionals, nfd Health Diagnostic and Promotion Professionals 1, ,895 Health Therapy Professionals Medical Practitioners Midwifery and Nursing Professionals ICT Professionals, nfd Business and Systems Analysts, and Programmers Database and Systems Administrators, and ICT Security Specialists ICT Network and Support Professionals Legal, Social and Welfare Professionals, nfd Legal Professionals Social and Welfare Professionals Technicians and Trades Workers 45,989 21,803 67,792 Technicians and Trades Workers, nfd Engineering, ICT and Science Technicians, nfd Agricultural, Medical and Science Technicians 1, ,448 Building and Engineering Technicians 8,649 3,447 12,097 ICT and Telecommunications Technicians Growth Projection in Mining Operations (less oil and gas),

6 Occupation Base (2010) Growth Projected (2016) Automotive and Engineering Trades Workers, nfd Automotive Electricians and Mechanics 1, ,157 Fabrication Engineering Trades Workers 2,870 1,144 4,014 Mechanical Engineering Trades Workers 13,741 5,477 19,218 Panelbeaters, and Vehicle Body Builders, Trimmers and Painters Construction Trades Workers, nfd Bricklayers, and Carpenters and Joiners Floor Finishers and Painting Trades Workers Glaziers, Plasterers and Tilers Plumbers Electrotechnology and Telecommunications Trades Workers, nfd Electricians 5,751 2,292 8,043 Electronics and Telecommunications Trades Workers Food Trades Workers Skilled Animal and Horticultural Workers, nfd Animal Attendants and Trainers, and Shearers Horticultural Trades Workers Other Technicians and Trades Workers, nfd Hairdressers Printing Trades Workers Textile, Clothing and Footwear Trades Workers Wood Trades Workers Miscellaneous Technicians and Trades Workers 1, ,330 Community and Personal Service Workers ,313 Clerical and Administrative Workers 16,763 7,947 24,711 Sales Workers ,069 Machinery Operators And Drivers 65,180 30,900 96,080 Machinery Operators and Drivers, nfd 1, ,858 Machine and Stationary Plant Operators, nfd Machine Operators 1, ,493 Stationary Plant Operators 40,334 16,076 56,411 Mobile Plant Operators 3,470 1,383 4,853 Road and Rail Drivers, nfd Automobile, Bus and Rail Drivers Delivery Drivers Truck Drivers 5,639 2,248 7,887 Storepersons ,387 Labourers 9,895 4,691 14,586 Other 2, ,000 TOTAL 187,740 89, ,744 Source: ABS 2007; ABS 2011; BREE Growth Projection in Mining Operations (less oil and gas),

7 Table 2: BREE commodity production projections COAL Production Mt change Annual change (No.) Annual growth rate (%) URANIUM Production t Annual change (No.) Annual growth rate (%) IRON ORE Production Mt Annual change (No.) Annual growth rate (%) METALLURGICAL COAL Production Mt Annual change (No.) Annual growth rate (%) GOLD Production t Annual change (No.) Annual growth rate (%) PRIMARY ALUMINA Production Kt Annual change (No.) Annual growth rate (%) ALUMINIUM Production Kt Annual change (No.) Annual growth rate (%) BAUXITE Production Mt Annual change (No.) Annual growth rate (%) NICKEL Production Kt Annual change (No.) Annual growth rate (%) COPPER Production Kt Annual change (No.) Annual growth rate (%) ZINC Production Kt Annual change (No.) Annual growth rate (%) Notes: Mega tonne (Mt) is equivalent to tonnes; Kilo tonne (Kt) is equivalent to tonnes. Source: BREE Growth Projection in Mining Operations (less oil and gas),

8 Figure 4: and production in the mining operations sector 2000 to Production thousands 400 Production (Mt) RHS Mt (thousands) LHS Notes: a). Mega tonne (Mt) is equivalent to tonnes; b). Major mining commodities (coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, nickel, uranium and zinc) are included in producing total production in the mining operations sector. Source: ABARES 2011; ABARES 2009; ABARES 2007; ABARES 2005; ABARES 2003; ABARES 2001; ABS There was a strong positive correlation of 0.98 between employment and production in the mining operations sector for the period of 2000 to 2009 (Figure 4). 8 Growth Projection in Mining Operations (less oil and gas),

9 References Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2007, 2006 census table online: field of study by industry, cat no , ABS, Canberra. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2011, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, cat no , ABS, Canberra. Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) 2011, Australian Commodities, June quarter 2011, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource, Canberra. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) 2011, Australian Minerals Statistics, March quarter 2011, ABARES, Canberra. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) 2009, Australian Minerals Statistics, June quarter 2009, ABARES, Canberra. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) 2007, Australian Minerals Statistics, June quarter 2007, ABARES, Canberra. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) 2005, Australian Minerals Statistics, June quarter 2005, ABARES, Canberra. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) 2003, Australian Minerals Statistics, June quarter 2003, ABARES, Canberra. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) 2001, Australian Minerals Statistics, June quarter 2001, ABARES, Canberra. Disclaimer: The material contained in this paper has been developed by Skills Australia. The views and recommendations do not necessarily reflect the views of the Australian Government, or indicate its commitment to a particular course of action. The Australian Government and Skills Australia do not guarantee or accept any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information disclosed. The Australia Government recommends that users exercise their own skill and care with respect to their use of this paper and that users carefully evaluate the accuracy, completeness and relevance of the material on the paper for their purposes and where necessary users should obtain any appropriate professional advice relevant to their particular circumstances. The paper can be accessed at: Growth Projection in Mining Operations (less oil and gas),