Nivesh Daily Currency

Transcription

1 Nivesh Daily Currency 20 December, 2016 Currency Pivot Levels Currency Pair Close % Change OI % Change Prev OI %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR Foreign Currency Update. Currency Pair Close % Change Dollar Index EURUSD GBPUSD JPYUSD * R= Resistance. S = Support USDINR 28 December, 2016 Expiry Option Update Closing. Options LTP %Chg %Chg OI %Chg Pr OI OI CE CE CE CE PE PE PE PE Note: Previous day movement of Option, OI and IV is indicating positive move in USDINR. RBI Reference Rate ( December 19, 2016) Seema Yadav Research Analyst Tel: seema.yadav@indianivesh.in 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN India Nivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022)

2 Technical View on Major Currency Pair USDINR (November Future) Dollar/rupee ended near two-week high Monday on likely dollar demand from importers for their monthend payment commitments and overseas fund outflows from local shares. Technical, USDINR traded neutral to positive on Monday and settled at compare to previous close of From three consecutive days USDINR consolidation above the 50% Fibonacci Retracement support (67.73) which is creating probability bullishness in near term. On the down side, correction will expect to come below and pair may test again. Recommendation : LTP Buy above Target Stop loss Important Factor: NIL EURINR ( November Future) Euro traded slightly negative on Monday. Meanwhile, data released Monday showed Germany's IFO Business Climate index rose to in December from in November, more than the expectations for a smaller increase to Technical, On the EOD chart, EURINR yet trading below its short term moving average which is indicating for bearishness. But, pair would need to break below in order to test , else any rise towards likely to attract huge selling activities. Recommendation LTP Sell below Target Stop loss Daily Important Factor : German PPI m/m

3 GBP ( November Future) The British pound dipped to , it s lowest in about a month and last stood at Technical, GBPINR settled almost flat yesterday. On the EOD chart, pair yet trading below the SMA and 23.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its previous fall which is creating probability for bearishness in near term. On the upside, strong resistance is seen at and sustain trade above only will open the door for Recommendation : LTP Sell around Target Stop loss Important Factor : CBI Realized Sales JPYINR (November Future) Yen strengthened against the dollar on safe-haven appeal as investors remain concerned over rising tensions between the US and China after China seized US drone in South China Sea. Bank of Japan will conclude its two-day monetary policy for the world's third largest economy on Tuesday. A strong turn from the previous close and a long bullish candle stick formation on the EOD chart is indicating for bullish trend reversal in JPYINR. Today, a break above will open to door for levels. Failure of the break out only could creating probability for correction towards Recommendation/ View : LTP Buy above Stop loss Target Important data: Monetary Policy Statement

4 Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today German business climate rose to 111.0, from in the preceding month. Russian Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.4%, from 5.4% in the preceding month. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Possible Impact Tentative JPY BOJ Policy Rate -0.10% -0.10% Neutral Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference :30pm EUR German PPI m/m 0.10% 0.70% Negative 2:30pm EUR Current Account 24.2B 25.3B Negative 4:30pm GBP CBI Realized Sales Negative 7:30pm CNY CB Leading Index m/m % - Impact: High Low Medium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Ticker News Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com *Dos Depends on Statement. DOV Depends on Votes. Source - investing.com, Reuters & ticker news. IndiaNivesh Research Nivesh Daily Currency

5 IndiaNivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022) / Fax: (022) research@indianivesh.in Website: Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report. To unsubscribe please send a mail to mail@indianivesh.in