Tanzania. Golden Opportunities ISSUE 5. March 7, 2016

Transcription

1 Tanzania Golden Opportunities ISSUE 5 th March 7, 2016

2 INDEX Overview...2 Economic Outlook...2 Agricultural Challenges...3 Focus on Infrastructure and Construction...4 Boosting Mining Sector...5 Growing Renewable Energy...6 Investing in Tanzania...7 Tanzania s Top Projects of 2015 Preview Powered by DMS...7 Featured Project...8 Tanzania Upcoming Opportunities Q Q Tanzania Golden Opportunities 1

3 OVERVIEW Located in Eastern Africa, the United Republic of Tanzania is bordered by Kenya and Uganda to the North, Rwanda, Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo to the West and Zambia, Malawi and Mozambique to the South. The country s eastern border lies in the Indian Ocean which has a coastline of 1,424 km. After independence from Britain in 1964, Tanganyika and Zanzibar merged to form the nation of Tanzania. The country had its first democratic elections since 1970s, ending the One-Party Rule, in Billion $ GDP ( Billion) GDP Growth (%) DMS PROJECTS With a population of 51 million people, Tanzania is one of the fastest growing economies in East Africa, making it ripe ground for booming economic opportunities across various sectors. Despite Tanzania s impressive macroeconomic achievements, like growing GDP and exports, the economic growth is not sufficiently broad based, and poverty levels remain high. About 34% of Tanzanians currently live in poverty, prevailing mainly in rural than in urban areas However, the Tanzanian economy has continued to perform strongly, due to increased investment and development in the infrastructure sector and support services. Medium-term prospects, which include development of construction among other sectors, are increasingly positive, with growth projected to remain above 7% in the coming years. This will be supported by public investments in infrastructure, particularly in the transport and energy sectors Estimate ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Figure: 1 Source.World Bank GDP The United Republic of Tanzania is the second largest economy in the East African region and the twelfth largest in Africa. Tanzanian economy has continued to grow in the past few years, recording growth of 7.3% in 2013, up from 5.14% in 2012, driven by information and communications, construction, manufacturing and other services. Tanzania s nominal GDP in 2014 was $48.06 billion and an average of 7.2 % growth is estimated between the years 2014 and 2016(Figure 1). Tanzania s GDP Growth ( ) Growth in the construction, mining and transport sectors has pushed Tanzania's growth higher in the third quarter of 2015 by 6.3% year-on-year compared with 5.4% in the same quarter in Agriculture is the core of the Tanzanian economy, contributing to about 26% of the GDP and employing the majority of the workforce, however the sector suffers from inefficient infrastructure. 2

4 Inflation Inflation in Tanzania has continuously declined from over 16% in 2012 to 5.7% in 2015, due to cautious monetary policy, a favourable food situation and declining fuel prices(figure 2) Figure: Export performance remains strong, driven by gold mining and tourism. Tanzania's total exports of goods and services during July-September 2015 rose by 3.3% with gold accounting for 89%of Tanzania's mineral exports. Tanzania s Inflation Rate Source: Economic Intelligence Unit However, the import bill has increased, mainly due to imports of capital and intermediate goods, particularly oil, resulting in the current account deficit of around 11% of GDP. The foreign reserves position has remained healthy, with 4.1 months of import covered. The rising local food prices have slightly pushed the inflation rate since early 2015 to 6.4% in July Tanzania has continued to maintain a healthy fiscal position, maintaining the deficit at sustainable levels and managing an increase in expenditure in line with the broad objective of sustaining macroeconomic stability. In the medium term, the fiscal deficit is projected to be maintained at around 5-6% of GDP, while expenditures and government net lending are projected at around 25% of GDP. In 2015, The Tanzanian currency (Tanzanian Shilling) had depreciated by 20% against the US dollar. The depreciation in currency was mainly due to the relative strength of the US dollar in international markets as well as the decline in aid inflows coming into Tanzania. However, in spite of the fluctuations in exchange rates, the balance of payments remained stable with the current account deficit being around 10% of GDP. The reduced import bill due to the fall in oil prices in international markets, coupled with improved export performance in some food crops and manufacturing, has helped the current account deficit to decline from 10.3% of GDP in to 9.5% in AGRICULTURAL CHALLENGES The agricultural sector is the pillar of the Tanzanian economy, contributing close to 26 % of the GDP and employing 75% of the labour force. Agriculture also accounts for 30% of total exports; and 65% of raw materials for the Tanzanian industries. Tanzania is a net importer of rice; however, with improved yields, it could fulfil growing domestic and regional demand. Furthermore, while Tanzania is largely self-sufficient in its main staple crop, maize, it still faces shortfalls in some years due to weather variability and low yields. Despite these facts, the sector continues to face challenges that hinder its growth such as poor access to improved seeds and fertilisers; limited access to financing for adoption of modern technologies; unreliability of rainfall in some regions; low sales of the produce due to 3

5 insufficient support and under-investment by the relevant authorities. Due to limited financial resources, weak infrastructure, and poor policies, the Agricultural sector has not been able to develop to its full capacity. Hence, Tanzania needs to invest in building supporting infrastructure facilities to enable the development and increase the productivity of the Agriculture sector and shift focus to other sectors. Initiatives such as the development of the first fertilizer plant in Tanzania, the Mtwara Fertilizer Complex, is surely a step forward in strengthening Tanzania s agricultural sector. The plant, which is being developed by the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) in collaboration with Ferrostaal Industrial Projects GmbH, Haldor Topsoe A/S and Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd, will produce 1.3 million tons of fertilizer per year when it begins operation in FOCUS ON INFRASTRUCTURE AND CONSTRUCTION regressed as they passed their economic life. During the past decade, significant progress has been made, particularly in the roads subsector, but considerable investment is still required to deliver improved transport services to meet the growing needs of the economy and the region which it serves. In line with the growing focus on the Construction and Infrastructure sector, the investment in the sector is also expected to increase. According to DMS Projects, the investment in the Infrastructure sector will increase substantially in 2017 at about $33 billion, owing to the country s development plans, and would remain constant between the years 2018 and 2020 (Figure 3). Investment in infrastructure DMS PROJECTS Tanzania s national development strategy emphasises that extensive and efficient infrastructure is critical to ensure the effective functioning of the country s economy. Tanzania's construction sector is forecasted to grow about 10% in 2016 in comparison to 2015, averaging 8.8% over the next five years and 9% over the full 10-year forecasted period. The key driver will be the expansion in port and rail infrastructure which will boost Tanzania's industrial capabilities and raise its profile as a trade hub. In 2015, the Construction sector contributed to 11.7% of the country s GDP at a value of $4.85 million, which grew by 8.11% from $4.29 million in The construction sector is forecasted to continue growing slowly but steadily from 2016 to Tanzania is also the international gateway for several of its landlocked neighbouring countries like Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, DR Congo, Zambia and Malawi, which are all dependent to some extent on the country s transport network for their access to global markets.hence, the development of Tanzania s Transport sector is highly crucial. Due to limited resources for investment, a high proportion of the infrastructure and equipment Figure: Source: DMS Projects 2020 The establishment of a Special Economic Zone in the Bagamoyo District will also help to sustain an attractive business environment for foreign investors and boost development across Tanzania's Construction industry. The port will handle 20 times more cargo than Dar es Salaam port, which is currently Tanzania's largest port, and is expected to facilitate trade in the region by acting as a hub for raw materials coming in and out neighbouring landlocked countries, as well as bringing Chinese manufactured goods into the region. Additionally, the building of the Kurasini Logistics Centre, which would be the Tanzania-China logistics centre would serve as the main hub for trade between China and Tanzania, expanding business growth and 4

6 opportunities. As a part of the Central Corridor transport network upgrade and expansion, the Intermodal & Rail Development project will strengthen the countries rail agencies ability to manage the infrastructure, the traffic operations, and the network regulation. BOOSTING MINING SECTOR The Mining sector in Tanzania has improved steadily within the last 10 years, advancing Tanzania's economic status, with the value of mineral exports increasing tremendously each year.in total the Mining sector contributes 2.8% to GDP each year but this could rise considerably in future years. Tanzania aims to make the mining industry account for 10% or more of GDP by In the last decade, the country has witnessed growth in Mining sector with reputable mining companies like Barrick Gold (Acacia), Ashanti Anglo-Gold, and Resolute investing in large scale mines. As a result, many potential investors are flooding the country to open up investments in various fields.the United Kingdom is the largest foreign investor in Tanzania followed by India, China, Kenya, USA, Netherlands, South Africa, Canada, Germany and Oman. The country is endowed with abundant natural resources, a favourable climate, political stability and an excellent geographical location in the region, which makes it accessible to potential export markets in the region, the Gulf States and South Asia. The minerals found in Tanzania are grouped into the following major categories: Metallic Minerals: Gold, Iron Ore, Nickel, Copper, Cobalt and Silver Gemstones: Diamonds, Tanzanite, Ruby, Garnets, Pearl Industrial Minerals: Limestone, Soda Ash, Gypsum, Salt and Phosphates Energy Source Minerals: Coal and Uranium Construction Minerals: Aggregates, Gravel, Sand and Dimension Stones Tanzania is the 4th largest gold producer in Africa, making the country a major focus for the exploration and development of gold on the African continent. Roughly 40 tonnes of gold is produced per year, copper at 2,980 tonnes, and silver at 10 tonnes and diamond at 112,670 carats. In 2011 the value of mineral exports reached $2.1 billion, more than 95% of which came from six gold mines. Minerals contribute to about 52% of the country's exports, gold being the major contributor due to the growing focus, while other minerals also play a key role in the continued development of the Mining industry. According to DMS Projects, the investment in Tanzania s mining sector is expected to increasingly grow from 2016 to 2018, with the focus being on gold mining (Figure 4). Billion $ 1,600,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,000,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 0 Figure: 4 Investment in Mining Source: DMS Projects The Tanzania mining industry remains attractive to investors, given the next few years of significant diversification to the mining of nickel, uranium and coal. Some of the major ongoing mining projects include Songwe-Kiwira Coal Field Expansion and Liganga Iron Ore Mine. There is also availability of investment incentives and supply chain opportunities in the mining sector. Moreover, investments in coal would receive a boost as Tanzania looks to coal-fired power stations to offset energy shortages. The Mchuchuma Coal - To - Power Project is one such project which aims at converting the abundant coal reserves to effective energy. 5

7 GROWING RENEWABLE ENERGY Tanzania is bestowed with a wide variety of renewable energy resources, such as biomass, hydropower, geothermal, solar and wind. However, much of this potential has not been fully utilized, as current renewable energy only accounts for about 4.9% of generation capacity. If efficiently developed, these renewable resources would contribute significantly to Tanzania s energy supply, thus moving the country closer to achieving its economic goals and National Development Vision. Biomass is Tanzania s largest energy source and is primarily used in the domestic sector. However, much of it is produced in traditional and unsustainable ways because of weak enforcement and lack of awareness. Presently, Biomass is used for grid generation and by the Agriculture industry to generate its own electricity, about 58 Megawatts (MW) estimated. Biomass energy has a high potential in Tanzania due to the availability of the raw materials required to generate biomass, such as Sugar Bagasse, Sisal, Coffee Husk, Rice Husk, Municipal Solid Waste and Forest Residue. Several International organizations and development partners are also supporting the growth of the Biomass sector. One such example is the $31.2million biomass project financed by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). Hydropower is also one of the major renewable energy sources in Tanzania, with an installed capacity of 562 MW. However, irregular river flows resulting from droughts have decreased its reliability as a power source. To efficiently use the available resources, Tanzania plans to develop additional large-hydro capacity. Estimates of potential additional capacity go as high as 4,000 MW, but the long-term reliability of the water flows has not been clearly established yet. The Stiegler's Gorge hydroelectric power plant project by Tanzania National Electrical Supply Company (TANESCO) is expected to contribute about 2,100 MW of energy by the time it is operational in prospects have been identified by their on-surface manifestation, mainly hot springs. Geothermal sites are grouped into three main prospect zones: North Eastern (Kilimanjaro, Arusha and Mara regions), South Western (Rukwa and Mbeya regions) and the Eastern coastal belt (Rufiji Basin). Thus far, only the southwestern zone has undergone detailed surface exploration studies. This includes the Lake Ngozi Geothermal Power Plant, the first geothermal power plant in Tanzania, located in the Mbeya region, with planned capacity of 5,000 MW. Solar and Wind power also remain untapped energy sources in Tanzania that could contribute significantly to the country s energy mix, with several areas being identified as suitable to prospective development opportunities. Identifying the potential contribution of renewable energy to the country s future energy mix, the Government of Tanzania is committed to the development of low-carbon energy initiatives, by harnessing the country s renewable-energy resource base. The investment in the sector is also expected to increase between the years 2017 and 2019 (Figure 5). Million $ 350,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 50,000,000 Investment in Energy DMS PROJECTS Tanzania also has significant geothermal potential that has not yet been fully measured. Estimates based on conducting analogue studiesshow a potential exceeding 650 MW, with most prospects located in the East African Rift System. Most geothermal Figure: Source: DMS Projects

8 INVESTING IN TANZANIA The Government of Tanzania mainly has a favourable attitude toward foreign direct investment (FDI) and has had considerable success in attracting FDI. However, there still remains local apprehension towards foreign investors and free competition. After several years of growing FDI, new FDI in 2009 dropped modestly due to the Global Economic crisis to $650 million from 2008 s record $744 million. Tanzania offers well-balanced fiscal incentives to foreign investors compared to other East African Community (EAC) countries. There are no laws or regulations that limit or prohibit foreign investment, participation, or control. Firmsgenerally do not restrict foreign participation in practice, and foreign investors aremostlyprovided similar treatment as local investors. Tanzania is considered as the ideal entry point into the East African region. TANZANIA S TOP PROJECTS OF 2015 PREVIEW POWERED BY DMS PROJECT: Bagamoyo Port & Economic Zone CLIENT: TPA - Tanzania Ports Authority ESTIMATED BUDGET: $ 11 Billion SECTOR: Infrastructure STATUS: Construction PROJECT START: Q END DATE: Q PMC: Not awarded BACKGROUND: A new mega port, economic processing zone, railway network and other infrastructure will be built at Bagamoyo 75 kilometres (km) north of Dar es Salaam. The port is expected to facilitate trade in the region by acting as a hub for raw materials coming in and out neighbouring landlocked countries, as well as bringing Chinese manufactured goods into the region. PROJECT: TANESCO - Stiegler's Gorge Hydroelectric Power Plant CLIENT: TANESCO - Tanzania National Electrical Supply Company ESTIMATED BUDGET: $ 2 Billion SECTOR: Renewable STATUS: PROJECT START: Q END DATE: Q PMC: Not awarded BACKGROUND: TANESCO plans to build the Stiegler's Gorge hydroelectric power plant, which will be built along the lower valley of Rufiji River in Tanzania. The plant is expected to contribute about 2,100 MW of energy by the time it is operational in PROJECT: Songwe-Kiwira Coal Field Expansion CLIENT: State Mining Corporation (STAMICO) ESTIMATED BUDGET: $ 600 Million SECTOR: Mining STATUS: EPC ITB PROJECT START: Q END DATE: Q PMC: Not awarded BACKGROUND: STAMICO aims to expand the existing underground mine to produce coal from 150,000 tons to 300,000 tons annually and build a new opencast mine to produce 1.2 million tons of coal annually. PROJECT: Mchuchuma Coal - To - Power Project CLIENT: Tanzania China International Mineral Resources Limited (TCIMRL) ESTIMATED BUDGET: $ 1.7 Billion SECTOR: Power STATUS: EPC PROJECT START: Q END DATE: Q PMC: NDC - National Development Corporation and SHC - Sichuan Hongda Co., Ltd. BACKGROUND: TCIMRL plans to build the coal-topower project in Ludewa district of Njombe region. The project aims at developing massive coal reserves at Mchuchuma colliery that has 540 million tons of coal deposits which is enough to produce 600 megawatt for over 100 years. 7

9 FEATURED PROJECT Project Summary Project Name TCIMRL - Liganga Iron Ore Mine Name of Client NDC - National Development Corporation SHC - Sichuan Hongda Co., Ltd. DMS PROJECTS Budget ($ US) 1,500,000,000 Award Date Q Main Contractor NDC - National Development Corporation SHC - Sichuan Hongda Co., Ltd. Facility Type Status Iron Ore Engineering & Procurement Start Date Q End Date Q PMC NDC - National Development Corporation SHC - Sichuan Hongda Co., Ltd. Location Ludewa Disctrict, Tanzania Project Background The Liganga iron ore is located in Ludewa district of Njombe region, 900 kilometers southwest of Dar es Salaam. The project is one of the biggest iron ore resource identified in the country and estimated to contain reserves over 1.2 billion tons. Type of iron ore deposit found at Liganga is known as Vanado-titanium magnetite. Iron ore is a resource f or steel manufacturing industry and o ther f errous based i ndustries. T he project will b e the basis f or putting up an iron and steel metallurgical complex which in turn will create hundreds of jobs. Project Scope The project scope includes - Iron ore mine with production capacity of 1,1 million tonnes of iron, steel, vanadium pentoxide and titanium dioxide year years life span.. Project Finance Tanzania China International Mineral Resources Limited (TCIMRL) is the client of the project The joint venture consists of: - National Development Corporation (NDC) 20% - China Sichuan Hongda (SHC) 80% 8

10 Project Status. Jan 2016 ZYM stone crusher plant has been contracted for Liganga vanadium and titanium magnetite ore Dec 2015 Construction of project is now expected to start in Nov 2015 Oct 2015 Jun 2015 Jan 2015 Oct 2014 The iron discovered at Liganga mine will be exploited by Avic-Shantui Tanzania Limited, that plans to assemble and manufacture heavy duty machinery using local iron reserves. The president of Tanzania has stated that soon he will be laying the foundation stone for the construction of the project The government has granted SML 533/2014 license for extracting iron at Liganga to TCIMRL. The license will expire in October There are more than 6,000 Chinese individuals who have shown interest to invest in Liganga iron ore mining. Tanzania plans to export the first consignment of iron ore and steel in four years. Sep 2014 The construction of the project has been delayed. It is now expected to start in Feb 2014 Sep 2013 Jul 2013 Sep 2012 Sep 2011 May 2011 Apr 2011 Feb 2010 The iron ore mine at Liganga is expected to start operations next year while production of iron and steel products is slated to start in Tanzania is set to become the fourth leading iron producer in Africa when production at the Liganga iron ore project commences within five years. Liganga project has iron ore deposits that can be mined for over 100 years. Stanbic Bank Tanzania has secured syndicated financing worth $3 billion for Mchuchuma and Liganga projects. NDC and SHC have signed a deal to construct Liganga iron ore mine in southern Tanzania. The project will be operated through Tanzania China International Mineral Resources Limited (TCIMRL), which is a joint venture between NDC and SHC. NDC and Sichuan Hongda Company (SHC) are in the final stages of signing a contract to construct and operate the Mchuchuma coal mine and the Liganga iron ore mine in Ludewa District. NDC has prequalified five firms for the Liganga iron ore concessions: STX Corporation, AES Nov 2009 Corporation, Sichuan Hongda Company, Tancoal Energy, Sarda Energy & Minerals. The National Development Corporation of Tanzania (NDC) intends to prequalify firms to act as co-sponsors and shareholders with the NDC in two separate joint venture companies: Mchuchuma Concession and Liganga Concession. 10

11 Project Contractors PMC PQ Bidders Awarded - STX Corporation - AES - AES CORPORATION - SHC - Sichuan Hongda Co., Ltd. - Tancoal - Sarda Energy & Minerals - STX Corporation - AES - AES CORPORATION - SHC - Sichuan Hongda Co., Ltd. - Tancoal - Sarda Energy & Minerals - NDC - National Development Corporation - SHC - Sichuan Hongda Co., Ltd. DMS PROJECTS EPC PQ Bidders Awarded - STX Corporation - AES - AES CORPORATION - SHC - Sichuan Hongda Co., Ltd. - Tancoal - Sarda Energy & Minerals - STX Corporation - AES - AES CORPORATION - SHC - Sichuan Hongda Co., Ltd. - Tancoal - Sarda Energy & Minerals. - NDC - National Development Corporation - SHC - Sichuan Hongda Co., Ltd. Sub-Contractors PQ Bidders Awarded ZYM Mining and Construction Project Schedules 1Q Q-2009 EPC ITB 3Q-2011 Engineering & Procurement 2Q-2016 Construction 1Q-2018 Completed Project Personnel Jianjun Huang - Project Manager David Mzindakaya J =Project Coordinator Sichuan Hongda Co. TCIMRL Available only for DMS Members Available only for DMS Members 11

12 TANZANIA UPCOMING OPPORTUNITIES Q Q Project Sector Budget Award Date Status Completion Date DITL - Mtwara Coal-Fired Power Plant Power 150,000, Q Q4 ECO ENERGY - Bagamoyo Sugar & Power Plant Power 500,000, Q Q1 EPZA - Kurasini Logistics Center Construction 32,000,000, Q Q4 EPZA - Mtwara Oil Field Supply Base Infrastructure 3,000,000, Q Q4 HELM AG - Mtwara Petrochemical Complex Industrial 1,500,000, Q Q1 IEC - Ngaka Coal-Fired Power Plant Power 236,000, Q1 EPC ITB 2019-Q4 KIBO MINING - Mbeya Coal - To - Power Project Power 640,000, Q Q4 LAPF - Shopping Complex Construction 37,000, Q Q2 MEM - Lake Ngozi Geothermal Power Plant Renewable 300,000, Q Q4 MOT - Tanzania-Burundi Cargo Railway Line Infrastructure 700,000, Q Q4 MOW - Dar Es Salaam Metropolitan Development Construction 350,000, Q Q4 NDC - Kilimanjaro Machine Manufacturing Facility Expansion Industrial 600,000, Q3 RAHCO - Arusha-Musoma Railway Line Infrastructure 1,000,000, Q Q Q4 RAHCO - Isaka-Mwanza Railway Line Upgrade Infrastructure 500,000, Q1 FEED 2019-Q4 RUSUMO POWER - The Regional Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric Project Power 468,000, Q1 EPC ITB 2019-Q3 STAMICO - Kiwira Mine-2 Power Plant Power 400,000, Q1 EPC ITB 2017-Q4 STAMICO - Songwe-Kiwira Coal Field Expansion Mining 600,000, Q1 EPC ITB 2017-Q4 STAR OILS - Dar Es Salaam Port Petroleum Tank Storage Facility Oil 200,000, Q Q4 TANESCO - Kenya-Tanzania Power Transmission Line Power 455,000, Q1 EPC ITB 2017-Q4 TANESCO - Mtwara Gas-Fired Power Plant Power 900,000, Q Q1 TANESCO - Somanga - Kinyerezi Transmission Line Power 140,000, Q Q1 TANESCO - Stiegler's Gorge Hydroelectric Power Plant Power 2,000,000, Q Q1 TANROADS - Selander Bridge Expansion Infrastructure 91,000, Q Q1 TPA - Kigoma Port Upgrade Infrastructure 120,000, Q Q4 TPA - Mtwara Port Expansion Infrastructure 214,000, Q Q4 TPA - Mwambani Port and Railway Corridor (MWAPORC) Infrastructure 32,000,000, Q Q4 TPA - Mwanza South Port Upgrade Infrastructure 400,000, Q Q1 TPDC - Lindi LNG Terminal Gas 15,000,000, Q Q1 TPL - Second Tanzania-Zambia Crude Oil Pipeline Oil 1,000,000, Q Q4 TRL - Intermodal & Rail Development Infrastructure 300,000, Q Q3 UNIDO - Tanzania Biomass Plants Renewable 31,227, Q Q4 Powered by DMS Projects 12 13

13 For further details on the Markets that DMS Projects covers, please contact: DMS Global Tel: (+973) A DMS Global Special Report March 7 th, 2016 While every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, DMS Global cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this report or any of the information, opinions or conclusions set out in this report.