Grain Trading Systems and Market Information

Transcription

1 Grain Trading Systems and Market Information FAO/University of Pretoria workshop Presented by Stephen Kiuri Njukia RATES Program March 23 rd 24 th, 2006

2 RATES is commodity focused with an emphasis on regional integration Specialty Coffee Maize Livestock* Dairy Cotton/Textiles

3 East and Southern Africa Our region is dotted with many food insecure areas Many small scale farmers produce for subsistence and/or market Maize

4 Maize is Food In many African countries, maize is associated with food security: Where there s NO Maize there is NO Food. Although maize is still the dominant staple food in this region, wheat products are catching up quickly in urban areas Wheat consumption is growing at a faster rate than maize

5 COMESA/EAC Maize Statistics Average Total Production 22,000,000 MT Average Total Consumption 16,000,000MT Average surplus = 4,000,000 MT Despite overall surplus, we can still have pockets of surplus and deficits at the same time This has resulted in the formal and informal movement of maize from surplus to deficit areas

6 Current East Africa Maize Flow Kamwenge 130 Kigali 236 Kabale 172 Lira 140 Kampala 192 Bukoba 230 Busia 160 Isebania 200 Mwanza 260 Kitale 177 Nairobi 235 Mombasa 231 Tanga 261 SumbaWanga 227 Mbeya 185 Dar es Salaam 255 Songea 190

7 Typical Maize Trade Flow

8 Food Insecurity Production Failure Reduced government investments to research, extension, inputs, poor climatic conditions, etc. Lack of Access A function of movement from surplus to deficit areas Commercial access People have income to purchase e.g. Northern Tanzania buying from Uganda Is increased where traders identify market opportunities Is reduced when government policy is unpredictable Relief access Lack of funds by the government to pay for distribution logistics Poor road and rail network Export ban from neighboring countries can limit this access

9 Constrain to Commercial Access Lack of market information Poor infrastructure Unclear Government food policy Disorganized Grain Trade

10 Prices Market information In the absence of a defined price discovery mechanism, farmers do not know the prevailing prices beyond their locale Cross border trade flow direction Lack of information on informal exports and imports leads to an inaccurate food balance sheet Crop update Lack of information on crop development in neighboring countries can lead to losses for farmers and traders taking a long position Poor policy decisions

11 Lack of Information by govt; - Crop Forecast - Regional S&D position (Blind Decisions) Govt. impose barriers to trade, e.g.; - Export/Import Ban - High Import duties - Un-harmonized Quality Standards Corruption and illegal trade; - Higher Consumer prices - Food insecurity Barriers to trade promotes; - Informal (illegal) Trade - Corruption

12 Infrastructure Failure by government to investment in inter-regional road and rail network Rural access roads to bring produce to market Research on new and developing markets Market information system (MIS) Most MIS are donor funded or operate under budget

13 Government food policy Unclear trade policy and regulatory framework Unpredictable market interference Ad hoc import/export bans Currently Zambia ban on all food exports is curtailing export of sorghum to Tanzania Lack of trust and understanding between private and public sector Traders always described as unscrupulous

14 Disorganized Trade Busia Maize Market BUSIA Uganda URA Yard No man's land KRA Yard BUSIA Kenya

15 Disorganized Trade Competing with Government programs Marketing Boards engaged in both commercial and relief food operations Limited private sector growth Traders will not take position in unpredictable environment Banks will not fund trades where there are no clear price discovery mechanism

16 RATES Program Initiative Market Information Regional Maize Trade Policy Structured Trading System

17 RATES Experience with Market Information Systems Trade Linkage Mechanism - Emphasis on ensuring trade takes place Maize, Beans and Pulses Traders Cotton and Textile Traders

18 Market Prices in selected countries

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20 Tradeafrica.biz - Volume & Value of Business Postings Inquiries to Buy Maize Quarter 1 Oct 1 Nov 30 Quarter 2 Dec 1 Mar 30 Quarter 3 Apr 1 Jun 30 Quarter 4 Jul1 Sep 30 Cumulative Total Volume in MT 154, , , , ,290 Value in USD 28,441,680 57,214,290 37,830,300 39,258, ,744,270 Average Price USD/MT Offers to Sell Maize Quarter 1 Oct 1 Nov 30 Quarter 2 Dec 1 Mar 30 Quarter 3 Apr 1 Jun 30 Quarter 4 Jul1 Sep30 Cumulative Total Volume in MT 219, , , , ,764 Value in USD 38,048,760 26,432,160 22,273,060 31,354,300 86,753,980 Average Price USD/MT

21 RATES Experience with Market Information Systems Market Information for Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda RATIN (Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network) Provides maize balance sheet position that includes both formal and informal trade Forecasts on trade opportunities Monthly bulletin in English and Kiswahili

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23 Shared Information, does it work?

24 Tradeafrica and RATIN connection Cross Border Linked Busia Trader to Farmers Choice Linked Golden Harvest to Busia Traders

25 Regional Maize Trade Policy Promoted the Maize without Borders concept that has been adopted by both COMESA and EAC We still see some backsliding when there s talk of food shortages Initiated dialogue on reduction of barriers to trade EAC maize traders guide Simplified Customs document for cross border traders for COMESA Training of cross border traders on grades and standards, customs, and phytosanitary requirements Duty reduction to zero within East Africa Community

26 Three basic requirements to Structured Trade Price Risk Management Finance Storage

27 Building Blocks for a Structured Trading System in East Africa Storage Aggregation of volume Standards and grading EAC Maize done Contract enforcement system Legal and regulatory environment Finance (role of banks) Users role defined Clearinghouse/ Commodity Exchange

28 Who Benefits from a Structured Trading System? ALL OF US! Kenya Grain industry players have started an initiative to from an East African Grain Council; Bankers, Traders, Farmers, and Millers Associations, plus Stock Exchange, Cereals Board, with support from Government and Donors programs

29 East Africa Grain Council Goals Uniform, regulated, and impartial system Acceptable code of conduct Market Transparency (Spot Market) Offers and bids are known by all participants Price Information RATIN Accurate, Timely, Public, Readily available Reduce seasonal market prices volatility functional spot commodity exchange Offers opportunity to manage your risks Increase the regions money supply Bring liquidity to the grain market (Banks)

30 Conclusion Trade flows (not food aid) normally account for the bulk of food inflows to crises areas In 2002/03, trade accounted for ¾ of food inflows needed by Zambia and Malawi (T.S. Jayne, D. Tschirley, P. Arlindo, B. Mwiinga) Therefore, we can reduce food shortages through Improved commercial movement of maize

31 Conclusion/Recommendation Maize = Food = Politics; therefore; Get regional Ministers of Agriculture, Chairpersons of Agricultural Committee in Parliament in one room to discuss and agree on way forward; Policy that leads to food shortages Governance Corruption