NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, U. of Colorado CIRES S.-W. Kim, G. Frost, S.-H. Lee, S. McKeen, M. Trainer

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1 Evaluation of NO x emission inventories in California using multi-satellite data sets, in-situ airborne measurements, and regional model simulations during the CalNex 2010 Model Simulations, Emission Inventory NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, U. of Colorado CIRES S.-W. Kim, G. Frost, S.-H. Lee, S. McKeen, M. Trainer Satellite NO 2 columns KNMI NASA K. F. Boersma L. Lamsal, E. Bucsela, E. Celarier, N. Krotkov UC Berkeley A. Russell, L. Valin, E. Browne, R. Cohen U. Bremen A. Richter, J. Burrows NOAA WP-3D NO 2 NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, U. of Colorado CIRES I. Pollack, T. Ryerson CU-AMAX-DOAS NO 2 columns U. of Colorado H. Oetjen, S. Baidar, R. Volkamer

2 SCIAMACHY measurements of large urban NO x sources in California & changes in emissions 2003 May-Sep./ UB SCIA 2010 May-Sep./ UB SCIA Tropospheric NO 2 columns (10 15 molecues cm -2 )

3 OMI measurements of large urban NO x sources in California & changes in emissions 2005 May-Sep./ UB OMI 2010 May-Sep./ UB OMI Tropospheric NO 2 columns (10 15 molecues cm -2 )

4 GOME2 measurements of large urban NO x sources in California & changes in emissions 2007 May-Sep./ UB GOME May-Sep./ UB GOME2 Tropospheric NO 2 columns (10 15 molecues cm -2 )

5 OMI tropospheric NO 2 columns 7/5/2010 (Monday, Holiday) 7/12/2010 (Monday) NASA OMI KNMI OMI UC Berkeley OMI (BEHR) NO 2 columns (10 15 molec. cm -2 )

6 CalNex 2010 (California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change) NOAA WP-3D (May-June 2010) NOAA Twin-Otter (May-July 2010) In-Situ NO 2 CU-AMAX-DOAS NO 2 columns Los Angeles

7 Background and Objective Satellite NO 2 column measurements - Very useful in studying sources, trends, and emission inventory - Uncertainties from retrieval processes CalNex data help to evaluate satellite retrievals. - Aircraft in-situ NO 2 observations - CU-AMAX-DOAS NO 2 columns WRF-Chem model is useful in - transferring the data from different platforms (various time and spatial resolution). - evaluating emission inventories. Evaluation of EPA NEI-2005 NO x emissions for CalNex Model NO 2 columns versus Satellite and CU AMAX-DOAS columns - Model NO 2 simulations versus NOAA WP-3D in-situ aircraft obs. - Comparison with 2 other emission inventories

8 Model Experiments WRF-Chem Model Domains D1: US (36 x 36 km 2 resolution) D2: Western US (12 x 12 km 2 resolution) D3: California (4 x 4 km 2 resolution) - Satellite, Aircraft observations and Model comparison WRF-Chem model version 3.1 (released in April 2009) Domains: US & Western US & CA Number of vertical levels: 60 D1 D1 36 x 36 km 2 D2 Simulation period: Apr/26-Jul/ Meteorological I.C. and B.C.: NCEP GFS Idealized Chemical I.C. and B.C. for U.S. 36km resolution domain (D1): clean maritime condition Anthropogenic emissions: EPA NEI-2005 Biogenic emissions: BEIS3.13 Chemical mechanisms: RACM (Stockwell et al., 1997) ~30 reactions updated following JPL 2006 report Cumulus parameterization for D1 only YSU Planetary Boundary Layer model Noah Land surface model

9 Satellite measurements of large urban NO x sources in California Tropospheric NO 2 columns: Summer Weekday Avg. Sacramento San Francisco Fresno Bakersfield Los Angeles Urban areas: Los Angeles San Francisco Sacramento Fresno Bakersfield Satellite data: 3 daily orbital OMI data (1:30 LT, 24 x 13 km 2 ) available for the CalNex period

10 Satellite OMI v. WRF-Chem <0.3, 254 Differences between one retrieval and the next are not small. up to 50% But, uncertainties in the emission inventory seem to be much larger than those in satellite retrievals, especially for Los Angeles area.

11 NOAA WP-3D v. WRF-Chem: Los Angeles 05/16/2010 (Sunday) r = 0.9

12 3 observations v. WRF-Chem for 3 urban areas

13 3 NO x emissions in Los Angeles: weekday Daily Average NOx Emissions (mole/km2/hr) NEI-2005 CARB ARCTAS-2008 Millstein&Harley SCIA OMI Acknowledgement CARB ARCTAS-2008: Chenxia Cai, Ajith Kaduwela Millstein&Harley-2005: Dev Millstein, Rob Harley

14 NEI-2005 NO x partition in Los Angeles Potentially large uncertainties in: 1. NonRoad Construction & Lawn Mowing 2. Area source (based on year 2002) Commercial Marine Vessels (CMVs) Kim et al., 2011, ACP 3. Point source (based on year 2002)

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16 Trends in NO x emissions in Los Angeles Weekday Weekend Surface monitors OMI Update from Russell et al., 2010, ES&T Trends in summer between OMI: -7.5 % year -1 / CARB Emission Inventory: -5% year -1 Potential causes: Control of mobile NOx emissions Recession

17 Summary and Future Plan Differences in OMI NO 2 retrievals ~50% on source box average and ~100% in individual pixel Model NO 2 is higher than obs. by a factor of 2-4. Uncertainties in NEI-2005 NO x emissions representing year 2005 Trends between 2005 and 2010 including the changes in diurnal cycles Future study Include independent model results Wait for better bottom up emission inventory? Or use inversion method? Influence of Asian emissions Understand the differences among the OMI retrievals Include daily SCIAMACHY and GOME2 data to examine the emission errors in the morning