The Losses From BSE in Canada

Transcription

1 The Losses From BSE in Canada Danny G. LeRoy Kurt Klein Tatiana Klvacek February 11, 26 Toronto, Ontario

2 Overview 1. Brief history of BSE in Canada. 2. Characterization of losses from May 2, 23 to May 2, Summary

3 BSE In Canada 1 Date 12/8/93 5/2/3 12/23/3 1/2/5 1/11/5 1/23/6 Where Red Deer, AB Wanham,, AB Yakima, WA Barrhead,, AB Innisfail,, AB North Central AB Details Purebred beef cow imported from UK Angus, born, fed and raised in Canada Holstein, born, fed and raised in Canada, shipped to the US Holstein, born, fed and raised in Canada Charolais,, born, fed and raised in Canada Holstein cross, born, fed and raised in Canada.

4 BSE In Canada 2 Percentage 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 5% 4% 3% % 4% 5% 8% 4% 17% 17% 18% 23% 31% 32% 34% 32% 33% 38% 41% Year 17% % Beef and veal exports as % of production 22: live cattle exports as % of inventory ~ 12.5%

5 BSE In Canada 3 Border closures May 2, 23 created a problematic situation: Foreign consumers were denied access to beef and cattle produced in Canada. Lines of production geared toward satisfying foreign consumers became uneconomic.

6 Losses 1 Losses of $11 million a day because of the beef bans and the resulting collapse in domestic prices Dorosh,, 23; St. Germain,, 23 Between May 23, and November 24, farm cash receipts for cattle plunged by $5 billion from what they otherwise would have been Tim O Neill, O chief economist of the Bank of Montreal, 24 Losses of $7 Billion CBEF, 26

7 Losses 2 What are the losses, really??

8 Losses 3 Consequences of border closures: Increased costs Clear loss where resources had to be withdrawn from more productive uses. Redistribution of production and consumption activities Losses are not as easily quantifiable. Effects manifested within and beyond the beef marketing chain.

9 Increased costs: Losses 4 Processors must now follow specialized procedures Segregation (age) dentition Head separation Removal of brain, nerve ganglia, eyes, tonsils etc. Carcass splitting Handling of knives Packaging and labeling Handling and disposing of SRMs. Cost estimated by AB Auditor General to be $25 to $35 per head.

10 Losses From BSE May- Dec Jan-May 25 TOTAL Extra processing costs ) Number of Head $45M 1.5M $12M 4M $75M 1.9M $24M

11 Increased costs: Losses 5 Designing, implementing and transferring BSE assistance to industry stakeholders. i.e., What additional costs were incurred? Other: Legal fees Monitoring and enforcement costs etc. Total not known, but not insignificant.

12 Taxpayer Transfers Federal Transfers March 22, 24: $68 million September 1, 24: $488 million March 29, 25: $321 million Federal-Provincial Transfers To June 18, 24: $46 million Provincial Transfers ALBERTA ONLY PROGRAMS To June 24, 24: : $258 million OTHER PROVINCIAL PROGRAMS - $$$ millions TOTAL more than $2 BILLION

13 Losses From BSE May- Dec Jan-May 25 TOTAL Extra processing costs $45M $12M $75M $24M Redistribution Costs (C$.2/$1 transferred) $4M $4M

14 Losses 6 Effects of redistribution: In markets for cattle, beef and byproducts Exports, imports, domestic disappearance Within the domestic beef marketing channel Producers, processors, distributors, wholesalers, retailers. Across commodity markets hogs/pork, poultry From taxpayers to beef industry stakeholders

15 Live Animal Trade No live cattle exports between May 23 and July 25

16 Live Animal Exports - 1 HS:12 RETURNS ( ( $) Month Nov Jan $128,151 $135,932 Feb $165,285 $122,796 Mar $162,418 $139,668 Apr $164,856 $136,72 May $123,711 $55,865 Jun $114,83 Jul $116,78 $16,549 Aug $162,637 $87,44 Sep $183,229 $126,447 Oct $186,622 $15,195 Nov $186,698 $135,41 Dec $133,397 TOTAL $1,828,614 $59,99 $ $516,33

17 Live Animal Exports- 2 Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec TOTAL 22 Average Returns, $ per Head $1, $1, $1,2.13 $1,223.7 $1, $1, $1,3.45 $1,57.11 $ $948.9 $1,15.49 $1,19.89 $1, $1,15.62 $1,16.72 $1, $1, $1, $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $1, $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. 25-Nov $. $. $. $. $. $. $1,57.88 $1,93.45 $1,85.8 $1, $1, $1,113.97

18 Losses From BSE May- Dec Jan-May 25 TOTAL Extra processing costs $45M $12M $75M $24M Redistribution Costs $4M $4M Reduced Exports Live Animals Number of head $1,21M (1.1M) $1,65M (1.5M) $1,21 (1.1M) $4,7M

19 Total Beef & Veal Exports - 1 Beef and veal exports from May 2 to Sept 1, 23 Then returned to previous levels

20 Total Beef & Veal Exports - 2 HS:Various RETURNS (' $) Month Nov Jan $172,755 $199,894 $142,17 $141,39 Feb $179,839 $184,684 $154,912 $152,111 Mar $199,3 $195,617 $171,799 $189,24 Apr $185,34 $181,757 $177,35 $21,56 May $188,547 $115,729 $157,471 $185,384 Jun $28,91 $56 $171,145 $184,482 Jul $181,794 $868 $161,221 $142,416 Aug $23,795 $741 $157,933 $139,577 Sep $176,786 $78,364 $15,38 $146,241 Oct $183,44 $168,971 $171,579 $112,877 Nov $178,677 $178,444 $16,674 $119,985 Dec $162,85 $156,863 $145,9 TOTAL $2,22,927 $1,462,44 $1,921,662 $1,714,758

21 Total Beef and Veal Exports - 3 Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year 22 $4.36 $4.6 $4.57 $4.5 $4.22 $4.8 $3.93 $4.1 $4.8 $4.13 $4.38 $4.32 $4.26 Average Returns in $/kg 23 $4.52 $4.48 $4.35 $4.35 $4.11 $3.17 $1.93 $1.6 $5.63 $4.83 $4.69 $4.32 $ $4.23 $4.2 $4.22 $4.52 $4.88 $4.17 $4.41 $4.31 $4.6 $4.4 $3.85 $3.95 $ Nov $4.22 $4.38 $4.32 $4.36 $4.2 $4.7 $3.86 $3.5 $3.65 $3.78 $4.4 $4.4

22 Losses From BSE May- Dec Jan-May 25 TOTAL Extra processing costs $45M $12M $75M $24M Redistribution Costs $4M $4M Reduced Exports Live Animals $1,21M $1,65M $1,21M $4,7M Beef $54M (12M kg) $54M

23 Byproducts By product earnings have not returned to 22 levels EXCEPT embryos.

24 Bovine Edible Offal, F/C 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Nov RETURNS (C$) Nov QUANTITY (kgs) Average Returns C$/kg Nov $6.3 $7.7 $5.84 $5.78

25 Bovine Tongues, Frozen 18,, 16,, 14,, 12,, 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, Nov RETURNS (C$) Nov QUANTITY (kgs) 22 $5.4 Average Returns C$/kg $4.87 $ Nov $2.3

26 Bovine Livers, Frozen 12,, 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, Nov RETURNS (C$) Nov QUANTITY (kgs) 22 Average Returns C$/kg Nov $.9 $.89 $.65 $.59

27 Bovine Offal, Frozen 8,, 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Nov RETURNS (C$) Nov QUANTITY (kgs) Average Returns C$/kg Nov $2.37 $2.13 $1.62 $1.89

28 Guts, Bladders, Stomachs ,, 2,, 15,, 1,, 5,, Nov RETURNS (C$) Nov QUANTITY (kgs) 22 $2.6 Average Returns C$/kg $2.3 $ Nov $1.47

29 Embryos 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Nov RETURNS ( C$) Nov QUANTITY (Number) 22 $329.2 Average Returns C$/unit Nov $ $ $552.5

30 Losses From BSE May- Dec Jan-May 25 TOTAL Extra processing costs $45M $12M $75M $24M Redistribution Costs $4M $4M Reduced Exports Live Animals $1,21M $1,65M $1,21M $4,7M Beef $54M $54M Byproducts $49M $84M $35M $168M

31 Losses From BSE May- Dec Jan-May 25 TOTAL Extra processing costs $45M $12M $75M $24M Redistribution Costs $4M $4M Reduced Exports Live Animals $1,21M $1,65M $1,21M $4,7M Beef Byproducts $54M $49M $84M $35M $54M $168M TOTAL $4,932M

32 Losses from BSE $5B overstates the loss. Live animals, beef and byproducts marketed to domestic consumers instead of foreign consumers. Imports. Redistributive effects (not included in our analysis, but very important).

33 Losses From BSE May- Dec Jan-May 25 TOTAL Extra processing costs $45M $12M $75M $24M Redistribution Costs $4M $4M Reduced Exports Live Animals $1,21M $1,65M $1,21M $4,7M Beef Byproducts $54M $49M $84M $35M $54M $168M Reduced Imports Live Animals ($44M) ($76M) ($32M) ($152M) Beef Byproducts ($81M) ($5M) ($492M) ($28M) ($188M) ($1M) ($761M) ($43M) TOTAL $3,976M

34 Live Animal Imports HS:12 COSTS (C$) Nov TOTAL $79,895,926 $36,797,416 $3,166,891 $5,256,629

35 Live Animals Annual prices fell below pre-bse levels and well below the exceptionally strong pre-bse levels.

36 Alberta Slaughter Prices, C$/cwt Alberta Slaughter Prices, C$/cwt $2.76 $26.61 $17.48 $23.89 $8.11 $ $4.85 $45.84 $29.44 $37.4 $85.35 $ $7.67 $59.8 $5.88 $57.4 $99.58 $ $75.3 $66.2 $56.42 $63.99 $12.29 $ $69.29 $63.37 $53.83 $6.47 $95.9 $95. 2 $64.29 $58.38 $48.21 $55.26 $9.34 $ $61.7 $53.29 $45.45 $5.91 $84.17 $ $56.84 $53.1 $44.11 $5.48 $83.85 $ $48.58 $44.54 $38.17 $44.92 $78.67 $ $59.46 $55.68 $45.9 $51.26 $84.71 $ $73.48 $65.95 $54.23 $6.31 $87.12 $ Bulls Bulls Feeder Feeder Cows Cows D3 D3 Cows Cows D1/D2 D1/D2 Cows Cows Slaugher Slaugher Heifers Heifers Slaughter Slaughter Steers Steers Year Year

37 Beef and Veal Imports HS:12 COSTS ( $) Nov TOTAL $787,737 $76,236 $295,868 $337,621

38 Offal Imports HS:12 COSTS ( $) Nov TOTAL $99,249 $89,988 $72,13 $74,894

39 Domestic Marketing Channel Lower returns to primary producers Fed Cattle Feeder Cattle Cull cattle Larger packer margins Gross profit: C$79/hd (pre-bse) C$216/hd (post Sept 1, 23) Final consumers High quality beef little or no change Low quality and ground beef lower prices in some areas for short periods.

40 Cross Market Effects Hogs/pork Poultry

41 Effect On The Hog Market Higher beef prices in the US raised the demand for pork. Increased demand in the US was met largely by hog and pork exports from Canada. from 2, - 25, hd/week to 4, hd/week/ In 23, 7.3 million head exported (yr-to to-yr : 33%) in exports e to the US also a result of lower beef prices in Canada.

42 Effect On The Poultry Market No perceptible impact Canadian production 1.2%; avian influenza Consumption up slightly; Per capita consumption ½ kg higher in 24.

43 Summary - 1 Losses of $4B likely an upper bound. Processing costs Redistribution costs Exports ; ; imports also

44 Summary - 2 Redistribution of consumption and income are important, but beyond the scope of this study. Observations: Prices to final consumers steady Large margins for packers Lower prices for cattle producers Fed, Feeder cattle temporary. Cull cattle on-going. Beneficial effects for domestic hog producers.