# Managing Cattle Price Risk with Futures and Options Contracts

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2 The basis risk for feeding cattle is much less than the price risk. The range for the actual basis is approximately \$7/cwt. while the range for the cash price is \$30.30/cwt. The standard deviation for basis (\$1.38/cwt.) is also much lower than the price risk (\$4-5/cwt.). Table 2 shows the monthly average returns and the percentage of months that a breakeven price or better could be hedged. In all months selling cattle on the cash market proved to produce the highest average return as shown by the black cells. The gray cells indicate the percentage of the months during the study that a breakeven price or better could be obtained. During the first five months of the year use of any of the marketing strategies would have resulted in a high probability of positive returns. The same cannot be said of the later months in the year where each strategy used would have resulted in an average loss. Table 2: Average Return and Percent with Positive Returns by Sales Month and Marketing Strategy Sales Date Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Cash (\$/cwt) % greater than \$ Futures (\$/cwt) % greater than \$ % futures (\$/cwt) % greater than \$ OTM Put (\$/cwt) % greater than \$ ATM Put (\$/cwt) % greater than \$ ITM Put (\$/cwt) % greater than \$ Black cells indicate the highest average monthly return Grey cells indicate the highest percent of years with positive returns For example, April cash sales generated a positive return in all 14 years (100 %) with an average return of \$5.15/cwt. September cash sales produced returns that averaged \$-1.32 and were positive only 62 % of the 14 years. However, futures in September were positive only 38% of the years and the average return was \$-2.16/cwt.

3 Graph 1 shows the frequency distribution of the returns per hundredweight. The cash market historically had the highest probability of a large profit or a large loss. Use of futures narrows the percentage of returns, with 70 percent of the returns falling between \$0.00 and \$5.00/cwt. Hedging 50 percent of the cattle are skewed to the right and offered increased risks of losing money (35%) and earning more than \$2.50/cwt. (63 %). Graph 1: Frequency of Returns to Cattle Feeding using Fututures % 25% Cash price Futures hedge price Hedge 50% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% <-\$7.50 -\$5.00 -\$2.50 \$0.00 \$2.50 \$5.00 \$7.50 >\$7.50 \$ Returns/cwt. The marketing decisions discussed above represent a very simple strategy, following the same marketing approach for 14 years and comparing the results. By applying some simple if then statements, several decisions can be evaluated: Rule # 1: if hedge price using futures is greater than the expected breakeven cost of production, hedge, otherwise use other futures or option strategy Rule #2: if the hedge price using futures is greater than the expected breakeven cost of production minus \$1, hedge, other wise use future or option strategy Rule #3: if the hedge price using futures is greater than the expected breakeven cost of production minus \$2, hedge, otherwise use other futures or option strategy

4 Table 3. Summary of Returns to Selected if-then-else Management Strategies Positive Beats Returns without added Mgmt. (same as table 1)Average Min Max St Dev Returns % Cash % Cash price % N/A Futures hedge price % 40% Hedge 50% % 40% 1 OTM Put % 14% ATM Put % 21% 1 ITM Put % 25% Management Rule # 1 if placement>breakeven hedge, cash % 23% if placement>breakeven hedge, 1 OTM put % 28% if placement>breakeven hedge, 50 futures % 40% if placement>breakeven hedge, ATM put % 30% Management Rule # 2 if placement>breakeven -1 hedge, cash % 28% if placement>breakeven -1 hedge, 1 OTM put % 31% if placement>breakeven -1 hedge, 50 futures % 40% if placement>breakeven -1 hedge, ATM put % 33% Management Rule # 3 if placement>breakeven -2 hedge, cash % 33% if placement>breakeven -2 hedge, 1 OTM put % 35% if placement>breakeven -2 hedge, 50 futures % 40% if placement>breakeven -2 hedge, ATM put % 35% Rule # 1 produced similar results to Table 1 but the percent of times with a higher return was slightly higher. Both the 1 OTM put and the ATM put had higher average returns than the option only returns. The standard deviation also decreased slightly. Rule # 2 still produces a similar percentage of returns greater than zero although the average return for each risk management tool decreases slightly from Rule # 1. However, the standard deviation also decreases, showing reduced risk in this case. Rule # 2 the results of a producer hedging when the breakeven price is \$1 higher than the expected hedge price at cattle placement. Rule # 3 is similar to Rule #2. Rule # 3 shows the results of a producer hedging when the breakeven price is \$2 higher than the expected hedge price at time of cattle placement. Average return and the percentage of returns that are greater than zero both fall. However, the percentage of returns that beat cash rose slightly. All three strategies offer greater returns to the producer using the if then statements to selectively hedge. If the producer strictly hedges over the 14-year time period the average return to the producer would be \$0.33/cwt. All the different strategies in Rules #1, # 2, and #3 offer greater returns as well as a lower standard deviation. While average returns were lower than cash only, these steps-wise decision rules offer slightly reduced risk.

5 30.0% Graph 2: Frequency Distribution of Returns to Cattle Feeding Using Various Marketing Strategies Cash price 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% Futures hedge price if placement>breakeven hedge, cash if placement>breakeven -1 hedge, cash if placement>breakeven -2 hedge, cash 5.0% 0.0% < >7.5 Returns (\$/cwt.) 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% Graph 3: Frequency Distribution of Returns to Cattle Feeding Using Various Marketing Strategies Cash price Futures hedge price if placement>breakeven hedge, 1 OTM put if placement>breakeven -1 hedge, 1 OTM put if placement>breakeven -2 hedge, 1 OTM put 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% < >7.5 Returns (\$/cwt.)

6 Graphs two and three show the frequency distribution of returns when two different if-then statements are applied. Graph # 2 shows the frequency of returns when the producer hedges with futures if the futures price is greater than the estimated breakeven cost and stays in the cash market if the futures price is less than the estimated breakeven cost. Graph # 3 shows the frequency of returns when the producer hedges with futures if the futures price is greater than the estimated breakeven cost and buys a 1 OTM put option if the futures price is less than the estimated breakeven cost. It is interesting to note that the graphs are very similar. This shows that purchasing the put option a negligible effect on the distribution of returns. The distributions of returns are very similar but the put option still provides valuable downside protection while still leaving most of the upside open.

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