PETROBRAS Update. November2014

Transcription

1 PETROBRAS Update November2014

2 DISCLAIMER FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: DISCLAIMER The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about future events within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are not based on historical facts and are not assurances of future results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect the Company s current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that these statements are only projections and may differ materially from actual future results or events. Readers are referred to the documents filed by the Company with the SEC, specifically the Company s most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, including, among other things, risks relating to general economic and business conditions, including crude oil and other commodity prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates, uncertainties inherent in making estimates of our oil and gas reserves including recently discovered oil and gas reserves, international and Brazilian political, economic and social developments, receipt of governmental approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain financing. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or for any other reason. Figures for 2014 on are estimates or targets. All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement, and you should not place reliance on any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation. NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES: CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that we are not permitted to present in documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because such terms do not qualify as proved, probable or possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S-X. 22

3 PETROBRAS TODAY Fully integrated across the hydrocarbon chain Exploration and Production Downstream Distribution Gas and Power International Biofuels 2.6 mm boed production 293 production fields 92% of Brazilian production 34% of global DW and UDW production 12 refineries (Brazil) 2.2 mm bpd refining capacity Oil products sales in Brazil: 2,443 Kbpd Oil products output in Brazil:,2,180 Kbpd 7,710 service stations 37,7% of market share 21% share of service stations 9,190 km of gas pipelines in Brazil NG Supply: 96.3 million m³/d 3 LNG Regasification terminals with 41 MMm³/d capacity 6,885 MW of generation capacity 17 countries 0.7 Bn boe of 1P (SPE) 217 th. boed production 231 th. bpd refining capacity 3 Biodiesel Plants and interest in 2 addiotional plants: 14,1 kbbld Ethanol: opening new markets Largest domestic producer of biodiesel: 20% of internal market 3 rd producer of ethanol in Brazil Adjusted EBITDA per Segment (US$ bn) (1) 2013 Proven Reserves (SPE Criteria) - Brazil 2,1 1,4 4,1 30,6 1,3 3,0 3,6 1,3 3,2 2,0 43,4 42,0 1,6 3,5 1,6 37,4 1,5 Ultra-Deep Water (> 1,500m) 41% Billion boe OnShore 8% Shallow Water (0-300m) 6% -6,9-15,6-9, Deep Water (300-1,500m) 45% E&P RTM G&P Distribution International (1) Adjusted according average exchange rate. Excludes Corporate and Elimination. 33

4 COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES Uniquely positioned to integrate upstream and downstream operations Exploration & Production Leader in deep-water production, with access to abundant oil reserves New exploratory frontier, adjacent to existing operations Downstream Dominant position in growing market, far from other refining centers Balance and integration between production, refining and demand Abundant reserves 300 km away from the market Gas & Power/ Biofuels/Petrochemicals Fully developed infrastructure for processing and transfporting gas Integration accross full energy and hydrocarbon chain in Brazil 44

5 HISTORICAL FPSO INSTALLATION Production grows when capacity of new production units exceeds decline of approximately 10% p.a Petrobras installed, on average, 5 platforms per year from 2006 to 2010, with capacity of KBPD /12: Inadequate installation of new capacity to overcome natural decline. Ramp up of these units was delayed due to limited availability of drilling rigs: Since 2006, fleet increased from less than 30 to more than /15: Gradual well connection will lead to production growth within the period Units and Oil Capacity (1) added per year 5 units 370 kbpd 7 units 590 kbpd 4 units 210 kbpd 5 units 480 kbpd 5 units 400 kbpd 2 units 100 kbpd 1 unit 100 kbpd 9 units 1,000 kbpd Manati 8MMm³/d P kbpd P kbpd P kbpd PPER-Phase 1 2.7MMm³/d P kbpd FPSO Cid São Mateus Camarupim 10MMm³/d FPSO Cidade de Angra dos Reis 100 kbpd TAD + P-61 + P kbpd P kbpd FPSO- CAPIXABA 100 kbpd FPSO-CIDADE DE VITÓRIA 100 kbpd PPER-Phase 2 5.3MMm³/d FPSO E.S. PQ DAS CONCHAS 100 kbpd FPSO Capixaba (reallocation) 100 kbpd P kbpd P kbpd SEILLEAN GOLFINHO 30 kbpd FPSO- PIRANEMA 30 kbpd PRA-1 FPSO Cid. Niteroi MLL 100 kbpd FPSO Cidade de Santos 10MMm³/d Cid. Paraty 120 kbpd P-61 + TAD 140 kbpd P-34 JUBARTE 60 kbpd FSO Cid. De Macaé FPSO Cid. Rio Das Ostras 30 kbpd Frade 100 kbpd P kbpd Mexilhao 15MMm³/d Cid. Itajaí 80 kbpd Cid. Ilhabela 150 kbpd P kbpd FPSO-Cid. RJ 100 kbpd P-53 MLL 180 kbpd P-51 MLS Mód kbpd SS-11 TIRO/SIDON 20 kbpd P kbpd Cid. Anchieta 100 kbpd Cid. São Paulo 120 kbpd Cid. Mangaratiba 150 kbpd (1) Petrobras Total Interest in capacity added to produce oil

6 NEW SYSTEMS ENSURE FUTURE GROWTH Piloto Sapinhoá (Cid. São Paulo) Baúna (Cid. Itajaí) Piloto Lula NE (Cid. Paraty) Papa-Terra (P-63) Roncador III (P-55) 1,9 Norte Pq. Baleias (P-58) Roncador IV (P-62) Iracema Sul (C. Mangaratiba) Sapinhoá Norte (Cid. Ilhabela) Papa-Terra (P-61+TAD) Growth in 2014: 7.5% ± 1p.p. Iracema Norte (Cid. Itaguaí) Lula Alto Lula Central Lula Sul (P-66) Búzios I (P-74) Lapa Lula Norte (P-67) Búzios II (P-75) 3 MM bbl Lula Ext. Sul e CO Sul de Lula (P-68) Lula Oeste (P-69) Búzios III (P-76) Iara Horst (P-70) Tartaruga Verde e Mestiça Búzios IV (P-77) NE de Tupi (P-72) ES Águas Profundas Iara NW (P-71) Revitalização Marlim I SE Águas Profundas I Sul Pq. Baleias Maromba I Carcará Entorno de Iara (P-73) 3,2 Júpiter Búzios V Espadarte III SE Águas Profundas II Revitalização Marlim II Libra Itapu 4,2 On Stream On Location Ordered Under Bidding kbpd +660kbpd +150kbpd +1000kbpd +900kbpd +1050kbpd Capacity added per year 66

7 OIL AND NGL PRODUCTION IN BRAZIL 2014 PROJECTION Production target of 7.5 (± 1 p.p.) maintained, as year end production offsets lower first half production average: 1,931 kbpd 2014 average: 2,075 kbpd ± 1% Q13: 1,910 2Q13: 1,931 3Q13: 1,924 4Q13: 1,960 1Q14: 1,922 2Q14: 1,972 3Q14: 2, P Cid. São Paulo Jan Cid. Itajaí Feb Cid. Paraty Jun P-63 Nov 12 P-55 Dec P-58 Mar P-62 May TAD Cid. Cid. Mangaratiba Oct 14 Cid. Ilhabela Factors that support production growth: New systems: P-61/TAD (4Q14), FPSO Cidade de Ilhabela (4Q14) and FPSO Cidade de Mangaratiba (4Q14). Planned connection of 33 production wells in 2H were connected in 1H14. - PLSV FLEET INCREASE: 11 vessels in 1Q14, 13 in 2Q14, 16 in 3Q14 and 19 in 4Q14. - PRODUCTIVITY INCREASE: from 84 km / PLSV / year in 2Q13 to 114 km / PLSV / year in 2Q14 (+36%). - READINESS: Reduction in PLSV downtime: from 33% in 2Q13 to 31% in 2Q14 (-2 p.p.). 77

8 PRODUCTION WELLS EXPECTED TO BE CONNECTED IN 2014 New Production Wells in 2014 New Injection Wells in Connected Completed Drilled Total Connected Completed Drilled Total * Wells drilled, completed, connected as of September 30,

9 PLSV s New units, greater productivity 99

10 PROGRAM TO INCREASE OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY (PROEF) SHOWING RESULTS UO-BC Recovering wells and subsea systems. Total Expenditure* US$ 1,897 mm NPV* US$ 1,080 mm Production gain: +61 kbpd in the 2Q14. Operational Efficiency(%) Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 Oil + NGL Production (kbpd) With PROEF Without PROEF 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 UO-RIO Integrity improvement and optimization in the usage of resources. Total Expenditure* US$ 3.2 mm NPV* US$ 1,340 mm Production gain +73 kbpd in the 2Q14. Operational Efficiency(%) Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q With PROEF Oil + NGL Production (kbpd) Without PROEF 731 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q * By February

11 SUBSEA FACILITIES IN BRAZIL Main suppliers of subsea equipment concentrated in the same geographic region, facilitating the logistics supply and local content Industrial Region Subsea Umbilicals Salvador-BA Vila Velha-ES Niterói-RJ Industrial Region Flexible Pipe Niterói-RJ Vila Velha-ES Vitória e Porto do Açu-RJ Porto do Açu-RJ Industrial Region Subsea Equipments Rio de Janeiro Taubaté-SP Curitiba-PR Jandira - SP Source: MSS/ IHS

12 PETROBRAS VESSELS;CURRENT AND PROJECTED FLEET Additional vessels still needed, but largely contracted Business and Management Plan Critical Resources Dec/2013 Situation Future Situation: Incremental values considering acquisitions (1) and disposals Situation Tanker Vessels Supply Vessels Production Units (SS and FPSO) Drilling Rigs (SWD > m) Future Demand ( ) + 89 Tanker Vessels Large Supply Boats + 32 Production Units by 2020 and +11 from 2021 to 2030 (Libra) + 28 Drilling Rigs Significant equipment demand mapping: Historically imported equipment with potential to attract foreign suppliers Equipment produced nationally but with potential bottlenecks in production capacity (1) Future Demand includes hired demand, demands in hiring phase and yet to be hired demand. Source: Transpetro; BMP ; Petrobras (E&P-SERV/US-CONT and AB-LO/TM) * AHTS, ORSV, PSV 12

13 PRE-SALT PROVINCE ON STREAM Daily Production Record: 618kbpd on 18th September 9 production units + 1 EWT 29 production wells (13 PPSBS, 6 BC/RJ e 10 BC/ES) FPSO Cid. Paraty 4 p. wells São Paulo FPSO Cid. Anchieta 4 p. wells FPSO Cid. Angra dos Reis 4 p. wells MG Rio de Janeiro FPSO Cid. Niterói 1 p. well RJ P-48 2 p. well FPSO Capixaba 2 p. well P-58 4 p. well Curitiba FPSO Dynamic Producer 1 p. well P-53 3 p. wells FPSO Cid. São Paulo 4 p. wells Concession Transfer of Rights Production Sharing Surplus Volumes of the Transfer of Rights 13

14 PRE-SALT PROVINCE Production Highlights In eight years, the Presalt production exceeded bpd. 8 YEARS PRESALT 9 YEARS North sea 16 YEARS Campos Basin Production Record -May 11th production wells Daily Production Record bpd September 18, YEARS Gulf of Mexico Success in exploratory wells 2013: 100%-Presalt 14 14

15 PRE-SALT DRILLING ACTIVITY Santos Basin Pre-Salt cluster injection wells 27 production wells Active Rigs Development Exploration exploratory wells (Jan-Jul) 15

16 WELLS CONSTRUCTION IN SANTOS PRE-SALT Total Duration Drilling Completion (including WCT) % p.a % p.a Duration (days/well) Duration (days/well) 16 16

17 THE WAY FORWARD UP TO 2020 Additional 24 platforms (PNG ) FPSO Cid de Maricá Lula Alto 2016 P-66, P-67, P-68, P-69, P-70, P-71, P-72, P-73 1º: Lula Sul 2016 FPSO Cid de Itaguaí Iracema Norte 2015 Itapu 2020 P-74, P-75, P-76, P-77 1º: Búzios I 2016 Sul Parque das Baleias 2018 FPSO Cid de Caraguatatuba Lapa 2016 Búzios V 2019 Libra 2020 Carcará 2018 FPSO Cid de Mangaratiba Iracema Sul 4T2014 FPSO Cid de Saquarema Lula Central 2016 FPSO Cid de Ilhabela Sapinhoá Norte 4T2014 Júpiter 2019 Concession Transfer of Rights Production Sharing Surplus Volume of the Transfer of Rights 17

18 PRE-SALT RESULTS ARE COMPETITIVE TO DEEPWATER PEERS Global forecasted production and break-even prices by types of oil and projects (*) Oil shale Break-even commercial ($/bbl) OPEC conventional Conventional Deep/ultradeep (>450 m) Greenfield Canada oil sands and heavy oil Shale oil Tight liquids Arctic Deep and Ultradeep Brownfield Canada oil sands and heavy oil Other oil sands and heavy oil Other conventional 60 Heavy oil/oil sands/shale oil/tight liquids Other (Mbpd) Break-even price range for Brazil Pre-Salt sanctioned projects Next wave of new technologies can further decrease breakeven pre-salt price 1. Range of predicted global oil demand according to the New Policies Scenario (91.7 Mboed) and the Current Policy Scenario (93.5 Mboed) in 2020, already subtracting 2.5 MBoed of processing gains IEA Source: Rystad Energy UCUBE, IEA WEO 2012 (Nov-2012) (*) Concession Model 18 18

19 FPSO CIDADE DE MANGARATIBA IRACEMA SUL (START-UP: OCT/14) Santos Pre-Salt cluster unit also being completed in Brazil and on schedule for production First oil on October 14, 2014 Pull-in of the first production well completed Operation License released on Oct 6th 150 kppd oil 8 MM m³/d gas 8p + 8i wells 19 19

20 FPSO CIDADE DE ILHABELA SAPINHOÁ NORTE (START-UP: NOV/14) Santos Pre-Salt cluster unit on schedule with topsides built and integrated in Brazil Sail away on September 2014 Mooring in progress 150 kbpd oil 6 MM m³/d gas 9p + 7i wells 20 20

21 LIBRA: FIRST PRODUCTION SHARING BID ROUND STVoR with equivalent economics and volumes, but with a 100% participation for Petrobras 40% 20% 20% 10% 10% Búzios Itapu Entorno de Iara Sépia Concession Transfer of Rights Production Sharing Surplus Volumes of Transfer of Rights L2 L3 L1 L4 L5 L6 L8 L7 L9 Libra L11 L10 L12 Unique Characteristics Very thick Pre-salt reservoirs Good reservoir quality (porosity / permeability) Light Oil (~ 27 API) The Libra partnership offers a vast array of opportunities Very strong oil companies Integrated Project Team Openness to new ideas 21

22 SVToR IMPACT ON FUTURE PETROBRAS INVESTMENT SPENDING Reducing investments in the other segments while increasing investments in E&P in Brazil 22

23 Oil Products Output Record in Brazil: 12 Refineries New HDT s and conversion units, logistics and process optimization lead to higher output Th. bpd Paulínia Refinery REPLAN Capacity: 415 th. bpd +228 th.bpd +12% 2,200 2,172 2,150 2,100 2,074 2,050 2,000 1,950 1,944 1,900 1,850 1,800 1,750 1,700 1,704 1,727 1,746 1,779 1,765 1,799 1,798 1,862 1,650 1,600 1,588 1, New production records in the refining segment Excellent efficiency levels: utilization factor of 98% in 2Q14. New monthly record of 2,172 th. bpd in June, 21 th. bpd above the previous record achieved in March 2014 Note: 2014 value refers to the monthly record achieved in June/14. 23

24 CAPEX EVOLUTION IN BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT PLANS Total planned investments declining, E&P share increasing in each of last five Plans Investment US$ Billion US$ Billion US$ Billion US$ Billion US$ Billion 70% Portfolio of Projects for Financiability Evaluation E&P Downstream Other Areas* 48% 35% 17% 52% 33% 15% 56% 30% 14% 62% 27% 11% 18% 12% BMP BMP BMP Total Capex BMP Total Capex BMP Total Capex * Gas and Energy, International, BR Distribuidora, PBio, Engineering Technology and Materials (ETM) and Corporate and Services Area 24

25 BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT PLAN Breakdown of total spending by projects under implementation, bidding process, and evaluation Production Development (73%) Portfolio of Projects Under Implementation + Under Bidding Process US$ Billion Portfolio of Projects Under Evaluation US$ 13.8 Billion BMP Total Investment US$ billion Exploration & Production (69.8%) Downstream 38.7 (17.5%) Gas & Energy 10.1 (4.6%) International 9.7 (4.4%) Distribution 2.7 (1.2%) Biofuels 2.3 (1.0%) Engineering, Technology & Materials 2.2 (1.0%) Other Areas 1.0 (0.5%) Infrastructure: 18.0 (12%) Exploration: 23.4 (15%) Under Implementation (US$ billion) Projects being executed (construction) Projects already bid Resources required for studies of Projects Under Evaluation Under Bidding Process¹ (US$ 30.9 billion) E&P projects in Brazil - Represent around 200 th. bpd of production in 2018 and 900 th. bpd in Refineries Premium I and II - Capex considers a relevant participation of partners - Capex aligned to international parameters 2 (US$ 13,000 38,000/barrel). Oil Production 2020: 4.2 million bpd Projects under Studies in Phase I, II or III (except E&P in Brazil) No impact in Oil Production 2020 ¹ Includes E&P projects in Brazil which will stil go through bidding process of their units, as well as Premium I and Premium II refineries, which will have the bidding process carried out throughout 2014 ² Source: IHS CERA Regional Downstream Capital Costs Indexes

26 BMP: FINANCIAL PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS Financing analysis only incorporates projects under Implementation + Bidding = US$ Billion No equity issuance Investment grade maintenance Main Assumptions for Cash Flow Generation and Investment Levels BMP is based on constant currencies from Brent Prices (US$/bbl) Average Exchange Rate (R$/US$) US$ 105 in 2014, declining to US$ 100 by 2017 and to US$ 95 in the long term R$ 2.23 in 2014, strengthening to R$ 1.92 in the long term Leverage Limit: < 35% Declining leverage (although limit surpassed in 2014) Net Debt/ EBITDA Oil Product Prices in Brazil Limit: < 2.5x Limit will be surpassed in 2014 and will fall below 2.5x from 2015 and below 2.0x in the end of period Convergence of prices in Brazil to international benchmarks, according to diesel and gasoline price policy appreciated by the Board of Directors on November 29 th,

27 BMP: OPERATING CASH FLOW AND FUNDING NEEDS US$ Billion 60,5 9,9 9,1 54,9 Additional funding needs will be funded exclusively through new debt. No equity issuance is envisaged Free cash flow, before dividends, from 2015 on. Annual borrowing needs ,2 206,8 Gross US$ 12.1 billion Net US$ 1.1 billion Net borrowing needs below previous BMP due to: Sources Uses Amortization Investments Third-Party Resources (Debt) Business Model Restructuring Cash Utilization Operating Cash Flow (After Dividends) and Divestments Higher oil production. Expansion of refining capacity, reducing oil products imports. Business model restructuring, which decreases cash needs throughout the BMP. 27

28 PETROBRAS RATINGS Consolidated investment grade position, supported by the sovereign rating Petrobras Rating: Baa1 / Brazil: Baa1 We see Petrobras s leverage to be nearing peak levels in 2013 and 2014, significantly higher than those of its industry peers and only likely to decline in 2015 and beyond Petrobras s Baa1 ratings are supported by its large-scale reserve base and dominance in the Brazilian oil industry with a leading position and reflects government support and the impact of joint-default analysis. Increased government linkages could also result in the convergence of the ratings with the sovereign rating. Petrobras Rating: BBB-/ Brazil: BBB- The ratings on Petrobras reflect our view of the company's "bbb-" stand-alone credit profile (SACP) and the "very high" likelihood that the government of Brazil would provide timely and sufficient extraordinary support to Petrobras in the event of financial distress. The negative outlook mirrors that of the sovereign and indicates that we would lower the ratings on Petrobras if we take a similar rating action on the sovereign. Absent any sovereign rating action, and maintaining our current assessment about likelihood of extraordinary government support, a downgrade would occur only if the company's SACP were to fall to 'b+', which we consider highly unlikely. Petrobras Rating: BBB / Brazil: BBB Although credit metrics deteriorated, they remain consistent with Fitch expectations and consistent was current ratings Credit metrics are expected to recover once the company increasingly monetizes its large oil reserve base and as domestic products refined products are aligned with international prices. A negative rating action could result from the downgrade of the sovereign or the perception of a lower level of credit support for Petrobras by the Brazilian government and/or a significant weakening in credit fundamentals beyond current expectations and without the government's expressed support for the company. 28

29 Dividend Policy Petrobras policy is to pay a minimum of 25% of adjusted net income to each class of shares Petrobras By-Laws Consistent with Brazilian Corporate Law According to Brazilian Corporate Law, companies with two classes of shares must pay a minimum amount equal to 25% of net income Regarding Petrobras By-Laws, minimum payable to non-voting shares (PN/PBR.A) is the higher of: 25% of Adjusted Net Income 3% of the PN s proportional book value of shareholder s equity 5% of the PN s proportional paid-in capital Non-voting shares have priority rights to distribution of dividends The application of Petrobras policy and by-laws resulted in the following declarations of dividends based on 2013 Adjusted Net Income: SHARE ADR PN PBR.A R$ R$ ON PBR R$ R$ Note: 1 ADR = 2 shares PN/PBR.A received a higher dividend for 2013 results because of the requirement of a minimum distribution, based on corporate by-laws, of 3% of the book value of shareholder equity 29

30 Thank you! We hope to see you again soon! 30

31 Information: Investor Relations