Emission Reductions in the Maritime Sector

Transcription

1 Risks and Opportunities for Shipping Jan Tellkamp

2 my Ambition: to stimulate your curiosity for business opportunities shipping facts (or myths?) emissions from ship to air regional developments technology economics, quick n dirty risks and opportunities 2

3 ships are huge Emma Maersk, 397m source: wikipedia 3

4 shipping is the most efficient means of transport source: 4

5 g / kwh ship engines are continuously improving 's 2000's 5

6 shipping is the cleanest means of transport source: NTM (Swedish Network for Transport and the Environment) 6

7 demand for cargo transport is growing, still source: 7

8 no need to put shipping under pressure source: International Chamber of Shipping: Shipping, World Trade and the Reduction of CO2 8

9 How does it harm? Global Impact - Climate Change Local Impact - Acid Rain, acidification of lakes - Smog / Particle Matters - Ozone 9

10 Shipping s reaction a nightmare? N O O O C O ECA 10

11 Short Sea Shipping in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea ECA N O O

12 the other day, 09:15am UCT source: 12

13 figures trade volume million tonnes / 11% global shipping volume 2000ships present at any point in time 58% of trade exports 33% of trade imports 09% inter-regional 2008 figures - 135,000t SOX - 393,000t NOX - 18,900,000t CO2-5%of ships accountable for 27% of emissions (PAX/RoPAX) 13

14 ship type distribution in the Baltic Sea 14

15 ship age distribution 15

16 Cost per ton CO2 averted ($/ton) Abatement technologies General Cargo / Short Sea Shipping 300 Average marginal CO2 reduction cost per option - General Cargo Dwt <100 TEU Baseline: 29 mill tons per year LNG voyage execution reduced aux power... fuel cell O C O CO 2 reduction (million tons per year) 16

17 Cost per ton CO2 averted ($/ton) Abatement technology LNG fuelled Average marginal CO2 reduction cost per option - Gas fuelled 220 General Cargo, 5,000-9,999tdw RoPAX other 5,000-9,999tdw 0 O C O CO 2 reduction (million tons per year) 17

18 Abatement options: ship design, fuel selection and smart use of technology efficient ship design fuel technology H H C H H 18

19 LNG the preferred option? Increasing distillate prices (demand/ production)? Current LNG fuel sales price in Norway LNG fuel price development? 19 Source: EIA

20 LNG is not efficient LNG has 1.3 times more energy per kg than gasoline source: R. A. Muller: Physics for future presidents 20

21 LNG is ineffective LNG :3.4c / kwh gasoline: 11c / kwh source: R. A. Muller: Physics for future presidents 21

22 LNG tanks are bombs combustable within 5% - 15% no, and this means NO, accident related to LNG since the 70 s with tankers, and no, and this means NO, accident related to LNG since 2000 with ships running on LNG 22

23 Comparing abatement measures Applies for a typical general cargo ship 23

24 discussed LNG Terminals 24

25 Economics, Tanker in Northern European ECA 25

26 Demand and supply 26

27 LNG fuel: A green solution, may also be financially viable LNG Available, safe technology Available LNG bunkering A financially viable solution Prerequisites for LNG as fuel Strategic partnerships Favorable fuel pricing 27

28 Risks societal - from sea to road - major accident with LNG Opportunities societal - building new LNG industry creates wealth - LNG technology leader, export business, financial - short return of investment expectations - lack of lending capacity as aftershock from financial crisis - decision on abatement technology - price ratio LNG / lwo sulfur Destillate business, financial - improved bottomline business, strategic - required industry / network in place in time? - clash of market mechanism: spot trading vs long term contracts - individual companies too small? - secure LNG supply - euphoria makes blind for other solutions business, strategic - demonstration of Corporate Social Responsibility - stimulus to rethink business and use of technology - first mover advantages - new niches and alliances - profiling 28

29 Key takeaways Short Sea Shipping must change Business and technology require the right partner LNG as fuel might stimulate new businesses 29

30 Safeguarding life, property and the environment 30