LNG Eco - nomical aspects BIMCO, Dubai April 2014

Transcription

1 Stefano Bertilone General Manager Greece, Middle East and Africa LNG Eco - nomical aspects BIMCO, Dubai April 2014

2 LNG as marine fuel The market currently does not exist An effective mechanism to create such a market is needed The capital involved has to cover investments for : new LNG fuelled Fleet existing ship retrofit logistic infrastructures Not all existing infrastructures are fit to serve the LNG ship related market

3 Market start up Four Main Actors Shipowners New buildings & retrofits Shipbuilders & Makers Strategic view Regulations Authorizations Governmental Authorities Gas supply & pricing Infrastructure develop. Management of logistic Gas providers

4 LNG price Price highly dependent on the considered country. Difference: from 3 to 19 $/MMBtu. However The difference between U.S. and Asian gas is poised to drop by more than 60 percent by Source Bloomberg Jan 2013

5 LNG price 650 USD/t (=15.3 USD/mmBTU) for HFO. 900 USD/t (=21.2 USD/mmBTU) for MGO. 13 USD/mmBTU for LNG (considering 4 USD/mmBTU + small scale distribution costs).

6 Financial Issues Medium Range 2 (MR2) 50,000 dwt prepared by: banchero costa research

7 $/day 50 MR2 Product Tanker - Newbuilding Prices Mill $ Standard Unit Dual Fuel prepared by: banchero costa research

8 $/day 12,000 MR2 Product Tanker - Capital daily Cost * 10,000 8,000 +2,000 $/day 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Standard Unit Dual Fuel *Assuming 100% financed, swap 20 yrs + 3.5% margin, annuity repayment 20 yrs to zero. prepared by: banchero costa research

9 $/day 12,000 MR2 Product Tanker - Opex 10,000 8,000 +1,300 $/day 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Insurance Maintenance Crewing Others Total Opex Standard Unit Dual Fuel prepared by: banchero costa research

10 $/day 25,000 MR2 Product Tanker - Capital Daily Cost + OpEx 20,000 +3,300 $/day 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Standard Unit Dual Fuel prepared by: banchero costa research

11 Mill Usd per Year Dual Fuel Performance Vs. Standard Unit Days Trading ECAs 4 3 (basis 50,000 dwt Produtc Tanker) LNG Prices $/mmbtu % days trading in ECAs prepared by by: banchero costa costa research research - 10

12 Dual Fuel Performance Vs. Standard Unit Days Trading ECAs Dual Fuel Hypothetical ECA Trade Rotterdam New York Amsterdam Huston Load Port Discharge Port Total miles In ECAs Days In ECAs Total days In Port % Rotterdam New York % New York Huston % Huston Amsterdam % % prepared by by: banchero costa costa research research - 10

13 Dual Fuel Performance Vs. Standard Unit Days Trading ECAs Product Tanker Trade West of Suez Rotterdam New York Amsterdam Huston Fujairah Aruba Lagos Load Port Discharge Port Total miles In ECAs Days In ECAs Total days In Port % Fujaira Rotterdam % Rotterdam Lagos % Lagos Rotterdam % Rotterdam New York % New York Huston % Huston Aruba % Aruba Huston % Huston Amsterdam % % prepared by by: banchero costa costa research research - 10

14 Dual Fuel Performance Vs. Standard Unit Days Trading ECAs Product Tanker Trade West of Suez Rotterdam New York Amsterdam Huston Fujairah Aruba Lagos Load Port Discharge Port Total miles In ECAs Days In ECAs Total days In Port % Fujaira Rotterdam % Rotterdam Lagos % Lagos Rotterdam % Rotterdam New York % New York Huston % Huston Aruba % Aruba Huston % Huston Amsterdam % % prepared by by: banchero costa costa research research - 10

15 Dual Fuel Performance Vs. Standard Unit Days Trading ECAs Med effect on ECA Trade Rotterdam? Fujairah Load Port Discharge Port Total miles In ECAs Days In ECAs Total days In Port % Fujaira Rotterdam % Load Port Discharge Port Total miles In ECAs Days In ECAs Total days In Port % Fujaira Rotterdam % prepared by by: banchero costa costa research research - 10

16 Coal Oil Wind LNG Are we going to experience a similar epochal change? Thank You!