SCI/VERKEHR COLOGNE THE RAILWAY MARKET IN CHINA Facts, Figures, Players and Trends

Transcription

1 SCI/VERKEHR COLOGNE 2014 THE RAILWAY MARKET IN CHINA Facts, Figures, Players and Trends

2 WORLDWIDE ROLLING STOCK MANUFACTURERS 2014 The Railway Market in China The Chinese railway technology market has reached a current volume of almost EUR 26 billion, and will continue to grow by 4% per year. In its new study The Chinese Railway Market, SCI Verkehr analyses the most current planning specifications and development goals in what has recently become the most important country for railway technology. In the past few years, China has developed into the largest and one of the most dynamic rail markets in the world. There have been massive investments in the rail sector, especially in high-speed systems. Investments reached an enormous peak in 2010 of EUR 100 billion. Since then, investments for rail technology in China have been reducing, but have overall remained noticeably above the 2008 level in the years following Whereas in previous years investments were primarily in high-speed and long-distance passenger rail transport, China s investments in the coming five years will focus on regional passenger rail and urban transport. Besides the market for metro vehicles which has been growing for years, new growth segments will emerge within the rail industry, such as multiple units for regional transport and light-rail vehicles. The after-sales market will also grow dynamically due to rapidly growing fleet sizes and network lengths. In concrete terms, this MultiClient market includes: Management summary listing the most important developments and trends in the railway market The structure and development of the railway transport markets and investment strategy An overview of the market development of the railway technology market, subdivided into product groups An analysis of rolling stock fleets and rail infrastructure stocks, differentiated by investment purpose, and market shares in the product segments Analysis and appraisal of the most significant infrastructure and system technology projects as well as rolling stock procurements Fact sheets of the most important product and service providers and private operators The market study is based on a number of sources of information from the press and discussions with experts which are continuously analysed, validated and entered into the SCI Database. The study is available in English from August SCI Verkehr GmbH is an independent consultancy company specialising in the technology and economics of transport. We have close connections to the rail industry, with consultants in a wide range of specialist fields. We have an extensive network of experts in Germany and abroad and we specialise in market and strategy aspects for the mobility sector. Our activities focus on companies in the transport and rail industry, logistics, public and private transport companies and transport and economics departments in public administration at federal, regional and municipal level. Your contact: Ann Kathrin Arntz Phone: Fax: a.arntz@sci.de SCI Verkehr GmbH The Railway Market in China 2

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Executive Summary: The Chinese Railway Market Trends and drivers Market volumes and Players Introduction and Methodology Objectives and Background Delimitation of the Railway Technology Market Temporal Focus Methodology of the SCI Forecasting Tool Market Structures Institutional Structure Operation Structure Funding Structure Investment The Chinese Railway Transport Markets Rail Freight Transport Mainline Passenger Rail Transport Urban Rail Transport New Development and Upgrade Projects of Infrastructure High-Speed Projects Suburban Rail Projects Urban Rail Projects The Chinese Market for Infrastructure Network Development Track Systems Electrification The Chinese Market for System Technology Control Command and Signalling Passenger-Related Information Technology SCI Verkehr GmbH The Railway Market in China 3

4 8 The Chinese Market for Rolling Stock Electric Locomotives Diesel Locomotives High-Speed Trains Electric Multiple Units Diesel Multiple Units Passenger Coaches Freight Wagons Light Rail Vehicles Metro Vehicles Annexe A Annexe B SCI Verkehr GmbH The Railway Market in China 4

5 3. Market Structures [ ] 3.3 Investments The rail fixed asset investment increased from CNY 207 billion in 2006 to CNY 630 billion in 2013, representing a CAGR of 17%. Under the 12th Five-Year Plan ( ), the government plans to increase overall investment in rail fixed assets to CNY 3.3 trillion, CNY 1.1 trillion more than the investment of CNY 2.2 trillion planned during the 11th Five Year Plan. Total rail fixed asset investment consists of rail construction investment, innovation and refurbishment investment and rolling stocks investment. Rail infrastructure construction investment includes new rail construction and line transformation. Replacement and refurbishment investment includes rail maintenance and refurbishment of rolling stock (excluding urban transit rail vehicles). Under the 12th Five-Year Plan, the fixed assets investment from 2013 to 2015 is expected to be approximately CNY 680 billion per year at least. China will increase railway fixed asset investment to CNY 720 billion (EUR 86 billion) in new projects and over kilometers of new railway lines will be put into operation this year. The former plan set at the beginning of the year targeted CNY 700 billion of fixed asset investment, 44 new projects and kilometers of new railway lines, according to the CRC. 5 New development and upgrade projects of infrastructure [ ] 5.2 Suburban rail projects Suburban railway or commuter railway is almost non-existent in China today. Less than 300 km of lines are in operation. Suburban rail is defined as having a top speed lower than 161 km/h. China has concentrated on construction of high-speed rail, metro and intercity railway with a speed above 200 km/h. The next step is to build up a suburban network that primarily SCI Verkehr GmbH The Railway Market in China 5

6 operates between a city centre and the middle to outer suburbs beyond and commuter towns or other locations that draw large numbers of commuters, i.e. people who travel on a daily basis. Metropolises in China have already announced plans to construct suburban rail, and the rolling stock suppliers have introduced their first EMUs with a speed of 160 km/h. Especially large cities like Beijing or Shanghai have a strong need for suburban rail, as more and more people live in the suburbs and need to travel to their workplace every day. Beijing, for example, announced plans to construct more than km of suburban rail over next years. Suburban Rail Systems in Operation: City/ Municipality Route section Distance in km Maximum speed in km/h Construction period Shenyang Shenyang Fushun Beijing Hong Kong Shanghai Beijing commuter rail line S2 Hong Kong suburban rail East Rail line, West Rail line and Ma On Shang line Shanghai Commuter Rail Line 22 (160 km/h): Section Shanghai South Station Jinshan (CRH2 in use currently) East line opened in Important New Development and Upgrade to Suburban Rail Projects (realisation before 2020): City Project title Distance in km Financial volume (EUR million) Expected completion Beijing Beijing new Airport line SCI Verkehr GmbH The Railway Market in China 6

7 Market for after-sales Market for new vehicles Stock 8.8 Light Rail Vehicles China Light-Rail Vehicle LRV Trend Units Average development (p.a.) +7.2% Average age 2013 (in years) 27 Average volume (EUR million p.a.) 67 Average development (p.a.) +7.1% Volatility market volume (SAW) 39.5% Average volume (EUR million p.a.) 14 Average development (p.a.) +9.4% Volatility market volume (SAW) 1.5% Boom/strong growth Small growth Stagnation Small decrease Clear decline Installed Base and Development of Stock In large Chinese metropolitan areas, investments primarily go into metro systems as a mass transport mode. Existing and planned LRT systems serve as complementary systems. A market for light rail vehicles has been increasingly developing in the last three years in midsized cities and as a complementary system to metro networks in large cities. Historically, a number of Chinese cities (Shanghai, Beijing, Harbin, Anshan) have had tramway systems dating back to the turn of the 20th century. However, most systems were closed down in the second half of the last century. A few traditional LRT systems are still in operation today (Changchun, Dalian and Hong Kong) and a Translohr line is in operation in Shanghai and Tianjin. Translohr is a light rail system which runs on rubber tyres and is guided by a single central rail. There were 530 LRVs in operation in China at the end of 2013, 55% of which could be found in Hong Kong. SCI Verkehr GmbH The Railway Market in China 7

8 The vehicle fleet has an average age of approximately 23 years due to the large share of old vehicles operating in Hong Kong. Suppliers CNR and CSR have developed their own low-floor LRVs thanks to technology transfers from abroad. Between 2009 and 2013, CNR delivered to Zhuhai, Beijing, Shenyang, Changchun und Dalian and is the market leader. Shenyang Xinguan, a private independent local tram manufacturer, had its first contract from Changchun Mass Transit. CSR delivered to Hong Kong and Lohr (now Alstom) delivered vehicles for the Lohr system in Shanghai within the past five years. SCI Verkehr GmbH The Railway Market in China 8

9 CNR developed catenary-free LRVs for the city of Zhuhai with AnsaldoBreda s technology. CSR s subsidiaries have been cooperating with three foreign technology leaders for catenaryfree low-floor modern LRVs through licensing and technology transfer: Bombardier with CSR Puzhen, Skoda with CSR Sifang and Siemens with CSR Zhuzhou. In 2014, a new player announced its entry into the market. Tong Hao Railway Vehicles Corp was established as a joint venture between state-owned China Railway Signal & Communication Corp (66%), which is the leading and sole Chinese provider of control, command and signalling, Xiangtan Electric Manufacturing Group Corp (17%) and Czech company Inekon Group (17%) with the aim of producing low-floor trams for the Chinese market. SCI Verkehr GmbH The Railway Market in China 9

10 Market Volume and Outlook Key drivers of new procurements of LRVs are: Drivers Description Importance 5-year trend New infrastructure Transport mode Investment fund The main driver of new procurement is construction of new infrastructure. Construction of new lines has already started in Beijing, Foshan, Ningbo, Zhuhai, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Dalian, Shanghai and Wuhan. Metro systems are preferred in China due to high transport capacity. Following the construction of major metro routes in cities, light rail lines will be an attractive option to complement these metro systems. For construction of metro systems, the municipality needs approval of National development and Reform Commissions (NDRC), but for new LRT lines, the municipalities can decide for themselves. NDRC does not approve all applications for new metro lines from municipalities. In these cases, the municipality can decide to construct new LRT lines. Stable investment funds in large cities. LRT is favoured in the case of limited budgets for investment, as the construction cost is much lower than that of metro systems. Important Current and Planned Procurement Projects City Units Vehicle type Delivery Remarks Beijing % lowfloor CNR Dalian, a subsidiary of CNR, announced an order from the Beijing metro for delivery of 31 five-car 100% low-floor tram vehicles for the Xijiao line. This line, the first modern tram line in Beijing, will connect the tourist destinations of Yiheyuan and Xiangshan. The line is to begin operations in The airconditioned vehicles from CNR Dalian are to be capable of partial catenary-free operation. In the long-term ( ), SCI Verkehr expects the OEM and after-sales markets to grow rapidly due to: SCI Verkehr GmbH The Railway Market in China 10

11 Order form MC China Please fax to: + 49 (221) or mail to: a.arntz@sci.de SCI Verkehr GmbH Cologne Office FAO Ms. Ann Kathrin Arntz I would like to order the Multi Client Study The Railway Market in China Quantity Issue Language Single price 1 Total price 1 PDF Issue English 3,300 PDF + Print Issue English 3,700 Total price* Please ask for the prices for datasheets in other formats from the ordered MultiClient Study. Company Contact person (Title, first name, surname) Position Address (Street, town, postcode) VAT Number (for customers in member states of the European Union) or other invoicing address or order number Tel Fax I would like to pay by prepayment / I would like to pay by credit card 2 / Invoice For payment by credit card please use the online shop or ask Ms. Ruehmann v.ruehmann@sci.de Orders subject to our general terms and conditions. Place of jurisdiction is Hamburg. Date Signature / stamp 1 All prices exclude delivery costs and VAT 2 Additionally 5% credit card payment charges SCI Verkehr GmbH Cologne Office Place of jurisdiction: Schanzenstraße 117 Vor den Siebenburgen 2 Country court Hamburg Hamburg / Germany Cologne Geschäfts-Nr. 66 HR B Tel: +49 (0) Germany Deutsche Bank Hamburg Fax: +49 (0) Tel: +49 (0) Bank code: Fax: +49 (0) Account number:

12 q CLIENTS WE NAVIGATE WORDLWIDE Hamburg Office SCI Verkehr GmbH Schanzenstraße Hamburg Phone: 49 (0) Fax: 49 (0) Imprint: SCI Verkehr GmbH Cologne Office SCI Verkehr GmbH Vor den Siebenburgen Köln Phone: 49 (0) Fax: 49 (0) Berlin Office SCI Verkehr GmbH Köpenicker Strasse 48/49 Eingang G Berlin Tel.: 49 (0) Fax: 49 (0)