THE POLISH RAILWAY MARKET. Facts, Figures, Players, Trends SCI/VERKEHR COLOGNE 2012

Transcription

1 SCI/VERKEHR COLOGNE 2012 THE POLISH RAILWAY MARKET Facts, Figures, Players, Trends SCI Verkehr GmbH Copy «Unternehmen»,duplication prohibited 1

2 The Polish Railway Market 2 SCI Verkehr GmbH Copy «Unternehmen», duplication prohibited

3 THE POLISH RAILWAY MARKET Facts, Figures, Players and Trends With the Multi Client Study the Polish Railway Market, SCI Verkehr GmbH delivers core data of competitive relevance on current market volumes in the Polish railway infrastructure products and technology for new vehicle and after-sales segments. ABSTRACT Poland is the most important railway market in Eastern Europe, both in passenger and in freight transport. For a number of years, the country invests increasingly in the national railway sector, driven by EU funding. This current Multi Client study offers in-depth analyses of the rolling stock market, the supplier and operator landscape. In addition, it provides a compact description of the railway sector in Poland. The analyses of market volumes and future developments for rolling stock segments as well as infrastructure a systems technology product markets will serve management and deciders active in the Eastern European railway market. Information on important trends, current and planned projects and competitor analyses add further detail to the study. In concrete terms, this MC Study The Polish Railway Market includes: Structure of the Polish railway market and its major drivers Description of major developments and projects until 2016 Analyses and forecast of the rail freight and passenger transport market Description and evaluation of demand for rolling stock and infrastructure services Overview of major players in the Polish railway market including detailed profiles of TOP-operators and manufacturers The study will be available in English from March 15, 2012 at the price of EUR 3,000 plus VAT and postage. SCI Verkehr is an independent consultancy company for the transportation sector with activities around the world. We specialise in strategic advice to the railway and logistics industry. We have close connections to the rail and logistics industry, with consultants in a wide range of specialist fields. We have an extensive network of experts in Germany and abroad, and we specialise in market and strategy aspects for the mobility sector. Our activities focus on companies in the transport and rail industry, logistics, public and private transport companies and transport and economics departments in public administration at federal, regional and community level. Your contact Katja Wittke Tel Fax k.wittke@sci.de SCI Verkehr GmbH Copy «Unternehmen»,duplication prohibited 3

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5 Excerpt of MC Poland CONTENTS 1 Executive Summary: The Polish Railway Market Market Volumes for Railway Infrastructure Products and Rolling Stock Introduction and Methodology Objectives and Background Delimitation of Railway Passenger Transport Delimitation of the Railway Technology Market Temporal Focus Methodology of the SCI Forecasting Tool Market Structures and Drivers of Development Economic Development and Driver Analysis Urban development National Growth Programmes Funding Structure The Polish Railway Transport Markets and its Players Mainline Passenger Rail Transport Urban Rail Transport Rail Freight Transport Rolling Stock Manufacturers and Maintenance Providers Passenger Rolling Stock Manufacturers Locomotive and Freight Wagon Manufacturers Component Suppliers Maintenance and After Sales Infrastructure Projects and Technology Overview Mainline passenger and High-speed Projects Urban Rail Projects The Market for Railway Infrastructure Products The Polish Market for Rolling Stock Overview Electric Locomotives Diesel locomotives High-speed Trains Electric Multiple Units Diesel Multiple Units Passenger Coaches Freight Wagons Light-rail Vehicles Metro Vehicles Annex: Railway Industry and Service Provider: Fact sheets of important players SCI Verkehr GmbH Copy «Unternehmen»,duplication prohibited 5

6 Excert of MC Poland FIGURES Figure 1: Development oft he Polisch railway market per year...17 Figure 2: Development of transport performance in Poland Figure 3: Delimitation of public transport...24 Figure 4: Characteristics of mainline railway transport...25 Figure 5: Characteristics of urban rail transport...25 Figure 6: Characteristics of the systems for public transport...26 Figure 7: Value creation relationships in the rail industry...26 Figure 8: Delimitation of OEM and after-sales business...27 Figure 9: Structure of the product segment infrastructure...28 Figure 10: Structure of the product segment systems technology...28 Figure 11: Structure of the product segment rolling stock...29 Figure 12: Map of Poland...29 Figure 13: Overview of the drivers of the worldwide railway market...30 Figure 14: SCI forecast method...34 Figure 15: SCI forecasting tool based on four categories (schematic diagram)...35 Figure 16: Forecast diagram for OEM business infrastructure and systems technology...36 Figure 17: Forecast diagram after-sales business...37 Figure 18: Main cities in Poland...40 Figure 19: New convential lines in Poland...42 Figure 20: Modal Split Passenger Transport...45 Figure 21: Market shares in mainline rail transport Figure 22: LRT systems in Poland...53 Figure 23: Modal Split Freight Transport...55 Figure 27: Polish railway network...71 Figure 28: Planned mainline network...72 Figure 29: Track systems market volumes by investment target...77 Figure 30: Market delimitation in the product segment track systems...78 Figure 31: Track system market volume for new development and upgrade...79 Figure 32: Track systems market volume for renewal and maintenance...80 Figure 33: Market delimitation in the product segment for electrification...81 Figure 34: Railway electrification market volume new developments and upgrades...82 [...] 6 SCI Verkehr GmbH Copy «Unternehmen», duplication prohibited

7 Excerpt of MC Poland 1 Executive Summary: The Polish Railway Market The Polish railway technology market is with 2.4 billion EUR the biggest among the new EU-members. The big potential of the railway market in Poland and the need of a comprehensive upgrade of rolling stock and infrastructure are sometimes still slowed down by weak financing. The Polish railway market has recovered much quicker than expected in 2009, when the market was under the influence of the financial and economic crisis. The annual market volume for all products and services in the field of railway technology in Poland currently stands at approximately EUR 2.4 billion (mean from 2010 to 2012) and is set to grow at an annual rate of 2.7% to EUR 2.9 billion by 2016 inclusive of standard price developments. SCI Verkehr expects significant growth even above 5% p.a. in the period up to 2014 that will then tail off mainly due to the cancellation of the construction of the planned high-speed line. The main drivers for the development are - The comprehensive renewal of infrastructure of the main railway corridors and of many tramway networks. - Recovery of the rolling stock market after a difficult decade. - That the main financial sources are EU-founds. Market cycles are therefore influenced by the periodicity of the EU budgets. Poland is after Germany the second EU market for freight rail transport. In passenger rail transport it is the sixth EU market after more populated countries like France, Germany, UK, Italy and Spain but just before Netherlands that have less than the half of the Polish population. It is by far the main railway market among the new EU countries. Passenger transport has lost from 2000 to 2010 around 35% of passenger-km, due to poor service and bad quality of rail infrastructure. This is enforced by the continued trend of individual motorization that started after the fall of the iron curtain. SCI Verkehr expects that the current modernization of tracks and rolling stock thanks to EU financing will enable a positive trend in passenger transport in the next years, mainly in suburban and urban transport services. Regional transport is still facing a deep reorganization with a progressive involvement of the regional governments. In the main cities the suburban transport plays an important role. Here is also where the highest growth rates are expected for the coming years. Freight transport performance has reached the lowest point in 2002 and since then is growing, apart from 2009 due to the global financial crisis. Freight transport will continue to grow: bulk transport will remain the core business in the short term but there will be a progressive increasing of intermodal services. SCI Verkehr estimates a continuous annual growth of freight transport performance of about 3 to 5% for the next five years. These developments are influenced by the following trends: - The Polish freight operators are currently going through a period of revitalization, after the financial crisis of the last 2 years. - Like in other EU countries new players have forced the incumbent PKP Cargo to undergo a deep reorganization. SCI Verkehr GmbH Copy «Unternehmen»,duplication prohibited 7

8 Excert of MC Poland 3 The Polish Railway Transport Markets and its Players The railway network in Poland is dense but it has been neglected for decades: main efforts are concentrating on the renovation and upgrade of the existing lines to allow higher speeds and improve the capacity. There are no plans of new lines apart from small connections like airport links. On the contrary, some few secondary lines may be closed. The Polish government has recognized the importance of the rail sector but it is still not able to cope with the big quantity of work that has to be done. Almost all the main infrastructural and rolling stock projects are cofinanced by the EU, and sometimes this is not enough since there are difficulties in finding the required own funding. This financial scheme ensures open tender procedures; alternative schemes like Public Private Partnerships are almost not present. [.] 3.3 Rail Freight Transport Operators In 2010, 39 operators have been active in freight transport on normal gauge lines, in addition to PKP LHS which operates on broad gauge lines. Operators may be classified as follows: 3 companies of PKP group: PKP Cargo; PKP LHS (only on broad-gauge) and PKP Energetyka (only for own purposes connected with infrastructural maintenance) 6 companies of CTL group: CTL LOGISTICS; CTL Rail; CTL Train; X-TRAIN; CTL Express; CTL Reggio; 6 companies of DB Schenker group: DB Schenker Rail Polska; DB Schenker Rail SPEDKOL; DB Schenker Rail Zabrze; DB Schenker Rail COALTRAN; NZTK Wola; DB Schenker Rail Rybnik; 18 other operators: PUK KOLPREM; POL-MIEDŹ TRANS; LOTOS KOLEJ; TRANSODA; KP KOTLARNIA; ZIK Sandomierz; RAIL POLSKA; KOLEJ BAŁTYCKA; ORLEN KOL-TRANS; GATX Rail Poland; EURONAFT TRZEBINIA; Lubelski Węgiel Bogdanka; PTK Koltar; STK Wrocław; MAJKOLTRANS; Freightliner PL; Hagans Logistics; ITL Polska; CEMET; 6 companies active only in railroad construction: DOLKOM; Przedsiębiorstwo Napraw Infrastruktury Warszawa; Pomorskie Przedsiębiorstwo Mechaniczno- Torowe; PNiUIK w Krakowie; PRKiI Wrocław; PRK KRAKÓW; Hence 6 companies have been active only on local narrow gauge networks. Over the past year, the incumbent PKP Cargo has lost a considerable market share to private railways. In absolute figures too, the company lost to the same extent as competitors gained market shares. In terms of transport performance, PKP Cargo is still the market leader. After its market share decreased from around 80% in 2007 to around 66% in 2009, PKP Cargo managed a turnaround in [.] 8 SCI Verkehr GmbH Copy «Unternehmen», duplication prohibited

9 Excerpt of MC Poland 7.5 Electric Multiple Units Installed Base and Development of Stock Around 1220 EMUs are currently being operated in Poland. Most of the fleet is operated by Przewozy Regionalne, followed by other major regional operators. Increasingly, the regional voivodships also own their own EMU fleets. Ownership of EMUs Poland 2010 Przewozy Regionalne Koleje Mazowieckie PKP SKM WKD SKM Warszawa Wójewództwo Malopolskie Województwo Slaskie Wójewództwo Lódzkie Województwo Swietokrzyskie [ ] SCI Verkehr GmbH Figure 1: Market shares per operators 7.6. Diesel Multiple Units [ ] Market Volume and Outlook The market for DMUs has already developed well in the last 5 years. The high average age of the vehicles in particular is leading to new procurements. In addition, the increasing demand in rail passenger transport is mainly being met through new procurements. [ ] Important current and planned procurements of DMUs Type [ ] Units/ cars per unit Delivery unknown 7/ unknown 9/ unknown 12/ Remarks The Lubuskie province in Poland plans to spend more than PLN 100m ( 25,184m) for new rolling stock. Apart from the railbus, which will operate in the northern part of the province, another 9 vehicles will be aquired. One tender was won by Newag in August 2011, In 2011, Województwo Pomorskie will purchase nine new DMUs, seven used and possibly some new EMUs. Till 2013, the region of Wielkopolskie schedules investments amounting to 100 million Euro. Amongst others, the procurement of 12 DMUs is planned. SCI Verkehr GmbH Copy «Unternehmen»,duplication prohibited 9

10 Excert of MC Poland Annex B - Company portraits for top Polish operators LOTOS Kolej Sp. Z o.o. ul. Michalki Gdansk Poland T: F: lotoskolej@lotoskolej.pl Management: Form of company: Business activities: Rail freight transport - Block train services Road freight transport / logistics Poland Operates rail freight transport in: PL Miroslaw Losinski (Operating Director) GmbH Shareholder: LOTOS SA Group (100%) Performance and company figures (end of business year December) Volume 2010 (million t) Positioning Performance 2010 (million tkm) Employees 2010 Turnover 2007 Share in the domestic market (tkm): PL: ~ 7% (EUR millions) Net profit 2010 (EUR millions) LOTOS Kolej, subsidiary of Grupa LOTOS S.A., is a Polish railway transport company specialised in petroleum refined products (i.e. oils, asphalts, petrol, aircraft fuel, candles and paraffins and many more), chemical products and intermodal transport. It is provoding railway transport services to companies of the LOTOS Group and to third parties. Besides freight transport the company offers lease of freight cars, and rail siding management services in Gdańsk, Czechowice, Jasło and at the Rypin storage depot. Current business development LOTOS Kolej transported around 8.4 million tonnes of freight in 2010, an increase of almost 40% compared to In the first half of 2011, the company reached a market share in Poland of 7% compared to the transport performance. The company operates 65 trains daily, of which two run internationally. 85% of turnover is generated within LOTOS Holding. The rolling stock consists of 70 locomotives and freight wagons. LOTOS Kolej has been awarded a transport contract by Polish oil group LOTOS with a ten-year term until 2019 and a volume of EUR 515 million. The contract is for the transportation of fuel and oil. Growth opportunities/outlook The strategic objective of LOTOS Kolej is to diversify its revenue structure, to handle the increasing freight activities of the LOTOS Group companies and todevelop its international freight transport operations. 10 SCI Verkehr GmbH Copy «Unternehmen», duplication prohibited

11 Order form MC Poland Please fax to: + 49 (221) SCI Verkehr GmbH Cologne Office FAO Ms. Vanessa Ruehmann I would like to order the Multi Client Study The Polish Railway Market Quantity Issue Language Single price* Total price* Electronic version*** English 3,000 First copy print English additional copies ** English 600 Electronic version English + 1 print version*** Total price* Company Contact person (Title, first name, surname) Position Address (Street, town, postcode) VAT Number (for customers in member states of the European Union) or other invoicing address or order number Tel Fax I would like to pay by prepayment / I would like to pay by credit card**** / Invoice Please charge the total sum to my credit card. Card number / / / Valid until Visa Eurocard / Mastercard American Express CVV number Date Signature / stamp * All prices exclude delivery costs and VAT ** Only in combination with a first copy in the same language *** Electronic version (single-user version/pdf). Total three users possible. Printing is permitted. **** Additionally 5% credit card payment charges Orders subject to our general terms and conditions. Place of jurisdiction is Hamburg. SCI Verkehr GmbH Cologne Office Place of jurisdiction: Schanzenstraße 117 Vor den Siebenburgen 2 Country court Hamburg Hamburg / Germany Cologne Geschäfts-Nr. 66 HR B Tel: +49 (0) Germany Deutsche Bank Hamburg Fax: +49 (0) Tel: +49 (0) Bank code: Fax: +49 (0) Account number:

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