Nordic Exports of Goods and Exporting Enterprises

Transcription

1 Nordic Exports of Goods and Exporting Enterprises Nordic Growth through Export Conference Copenhagen, 3 April 2014 Peter Bøegh Nielsen

2 Presentation outline Design of analysis and data Background and main results Exports and job creation SME export contribution and performance trends Nordic strongholds - existing and future ones Future growth markets? 2

3 Focus and output from the project Focus on Exports, goods, enterprises Strongholds markets, products Role of SMEs Performance of on BRIC, Next-11, US markets Existing trade data + new national databases Nordic NSIs, STATDK coordinator 3

4 Database contents Foreign Trade Markets (BRIC, Brazil, etc.) Products (Pharmaceuticals, Fish, etc.) New database Enterprises Activity Nationality Size class Employment Turnover Gross value added 4

5 Distributed micro data research in the Nordic project: How? 1) Guidelines for database 2) SAS code for execution 3) Standardised output tables for analysis 5

6 Presentation outline Design of analysis and data Background and main results Exports and job creation SME export contribution and performance trends Nordic strongholds - existing and future ones Future growth markets? 6

7 Nordic countries losing market shares 12 Per cent ,1 0,6 2,0 3,2 0,6 3,0 2,7 1,1 2,7 3,3 2,9 2,8 2,8 1,1 2,0 2,1 4,2 2,5 1,2 1,6 2,6 1,3 1,7 1,2 1,5 1,3 3,4 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,7 1,3 1,2 1,7 1, World BRIC Next-11 United States Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden Lost market share Benchmark EU-27 export of goods 7

8 Importance of exports: Similar levels in Denmark, Sweden and Norway Export share of GPD ,0 Per cent export of goods 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 37,0 35,0 33,7 32,9 31,9 29,2 10,0 5,0 0,0 Iceland EU-27 Denmark Sweden Norway Finland 8

9 Presentation outline Design of analysis and data Background and main results Exports and job creation SME export contribution and performance trends Nordic strongholds - existing and future ones Future growth markets? 9

10 Are exporters regaining employment as they have been regaining exports levels? Employment in manufacturing enterprises Index 2008 = Non-exporter Exporter Non-exporter Exporter Non-exporter Exporter Non-exporter Exporter Non-exporter Exporter Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden Outputs from national databases. 10

11 Are exporters creating more value-added? Value added per employee in manufacturing. Exporters and non-exporters Index 2008 = Non-exporter Exporter Non-exporter Exporter Non-exporter Exporter Non-exporter Exporter Non-exporter Exporter Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden Outputs from national databases. 11

12 Exports and job creation 2008 export levels regained except for Finland Manufacturing lost approx. 160,000 jobs Lost market shares 0,6 percentage points ~ 21 bn. EUR A jobless export growth? Increased productivity? Automation, international sourcing, creation of manufacturing jobs? 12

13 Presentation outline Design of analysis and data Background and main results Exports and job creation SME export contribution and performance trends Nordic strongholds - existing and future ones Future growth markets? 13

14 Importance of SMEs: Structural differences across countries Enterprises in manufacturing and wholesale Per cent SME Large World BRIC World BRIC World BRIC World BRIC World BRIC Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden Outputs from national databases. 14

15 Employment trends: Are exporting SMEs better at creating jobs? Employment in manufacturing enterprises Index 2008 = SME Large SME Large SME Large SME Large SME Large Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden Outputs from national databases. 15

16 SME export contribution and performance trends SMEs have faster export recovery compared to large enterprises Difference in relative job loss Supporting SME access to export markets, emerging markets? Types of initiatives export credits, access to finance, support overcoming trade barriers, capacity building? Special focus in SME policy on micro enterprises and exports? 16

17 Presentation outline Design of analysis and data Background and main results Exports and job creation SME export contribution and performance trends Nordic strongholds - existing and future ones Future growth markets? 17

18 Paper: Nordic countries keeping traditional stronghold Per cent Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden Paper, paperboard and articles of paper pulp, of paper or of paperboard All products Source: Eurostat database on international trade (tables DS and DS ). 18

19 Telecom: Nordic countries losing ground 8 Per cent Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden Telecommunications and sound-recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment All products Source: Eurostat database on international trade (tables DS and DS ). 19

20 Medicinal and pharmaceutical products: Denmark gaining in high-growth market 4 Per cent Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden Medicinal and pharmaceutical products All products Source: Eurostat database on international trade (tables DS and DS ). 20

21 Nordic strongholds - existing and future ones Strongholds in traditional fields Telecom, automobiles serious declines, SE and FI Pharmaceuticals high-growth, strong position of DK Enterprise policy focus on high tech production? New export strategies on emerging product markets (green, creative, welfare)? 21

22 Presentation outline Design of analysis and data Background and main results Exports and job creation SME export contribution and performance trends Nordic strongholds - existing and future ones Future growth markets? 22

23 Future growth markets? 300 Index 2008 = 100 WORLD BRIC US N DK FI IS NO SE Source: Eurostat database on international trade (tables DS and DS ). 23

24 Where are Danish SME exports growing the most? Enterprises in manufacturing and wholesale Index (2008=100) Output from national database. 24

25 Future growth markets? Performing relatively well on emerging markets India of less importance Export growth, policy focus on India? Next-11 countries Mexico, Turkey, South Korea? Focus on closer growth markets in supporting SMEs? 25

26 Thank you! Peter Bøegh Nielsen