SHARP RECOVERY IN TRANSACTIONS OF OVER 5,000 M² IN Q3

Transcription

1 AT A GLANCE PARIS OFFICE MARKET OCTOBER 211 SHARP RECOVERY IN TRANSACTIONS OF OVER 5, M² IN Q3 With take-up of 1,957,3 m² over the first nine months of 211, the Ile-de-France office market has seen a 2% increase vs. the same period in 21. As such, given the figure for Q3 211 (take-up of 788, m², i.e. the second highest performance of the last 1 years), the market is drawing close to the 28 level. Contrary to previous quarters when the segment of office space under 5, m² propped up the market, the sharp recovery in take-up stems mainly from the trend in deals for large units (over 5, m²). Indeed, with 487, m² transacted in Q3 compared to just 199, m² a year earlier, the market for lage units recorded a historical performance. Nevertheless, this sharp rise should be seen in perspective given the exceptionally large deals by SFR in Saint-Denis and Carrefour in Massy accounting for over 2, m². In terms of location, several major deals have boosted outlying districts such as the Northern, the Northern Inner Rim and the Southern Outer Rim. Meanwhile, Paris outside saw the biggest deal of the last seven years with the 38, m² lease by the Ministry for the Interior in the Le Lumière building (Paris 12 th arrondissement). Conversely, the take-up in the La Défense district is still short of the ten-year average. Availability within a year stood at 4.5 million m² at the end of Q3 211, i.e. a significant 6% decline over 12 months. This steep decline was largely due to the high level of take-up for new or refurbished premises. As such, the share of new or refurbished premises available within a year only accounted for 23% of total availability on 1 October 211 vs. 26% a year earlier. In terms of second hand availability, even though the volume still seems high, it has been stabilising since the beginning of the year. In this context, the vacancy rate for offices in Ile-de-France, which currently stands at 7.1%, is unlikely to change much until the end of the year. All in all, despite the recent intensification of the sovereign debt crisis, the office market in Ile-de-France is currently showing a high level of take-up, suggesting a full-year volume of between 2.3 and 2.4 million m². In our central scenario of a sharp slowdown in economic activity, office take-up in Ile-de-France might be between 2. and 2.2 million m² in 212. Office cycle Take-up* Availability within a year 5, 4,514 4, 3, 2,482 2, 1, Q3 * Take-up over 12 months 11 source: BNP Paribas Real Estate

2 AT A GLANCE - PARIS OFFICE MARKET - OCTOBER OFFICE MARKET IN ÎLE-DE-FRANCE Take-up (9 months) Take-up (9 months) 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1, > 1, m 2 5, - 1, m 2 5-2, m 2 average 9 months 2-11 : m² < 5 m 2 2, - 5, m 2 +2% % -1% +% +1% +2% Paris outside > 5, m 2 < 5, m 2 La Défense Western Crescent Péri- Neuilly/ Défense Levallois Northern Southern North Inner Rim South East Source: Immostat-IPD Source: Immostat-IPD Availability within a year (Q3) Future supply by 3/9/211 Second hand New Under construction Planning permission granted Paris outside La Défense Western Crescent Péri- Neuilly/ Défense Levallois Northern Southern Inner Rim North South East 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, , Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate - Research France Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate - Research France

3 AT A GLANCE - PARIS OFFICE MARKET - OCTOBER OFFICE MARKET IN ÎLE-DE-FRANCE 21-9 months months Immediate Immediate Vacancy Immediate Vacancy supply Take-up (m²) Take-up (m²) supply* (m²) rate* supply* (m²) rate* variation Availability within a year Q3 21 Q3 211 Variation Q3 21 / Q3 211 Under construction Q3 21 Q3 211 Variation Q3 21 / Q3 211 Paris 519, 478, -8% 5, 72, 44% Paris outside 712, 686, -4% 62, 73, 18% La Défense 357, 24, -33% 17, 179, 5% Péri Défense 49, 429, 5% 7 2, 186% Neuilly/Levallois 29, 195, -7% 62, 48, -23% Northern 252, 277, 1% 94, Take-up variation Paris 363, , 37, , -15% -2% Paris outside 492, , 466, , -5% 2% La Défense 193, , 191, , -1% -14% Péri Défense 3, , 313, , 4% 24% Neuilly/Levallois 7, 5. 69, 86, , 23% 7% Northern 223, , 248, , 11% 441% Southern 197, , 226, , 15% % Northern Inner Rim 199, , 227, , 14% 43% Southern Inner Rim 189, , 158, , -16% -25% Eastern Inner Rim 127, , 122, , -4% 4% Outer Rim 1,246, , 1,229, , -1% 57% Total 3,599, 7.1 1,624, 3,573, 7.1 1,957, -1% 2% *end of period Source: Immostat-IPD, BNP Paribas Real Estate Southern 374, 33, -19% 89, 18, -8% Northern Inner Rim 256, 287, 12% 63, 23, -63% Southern Inner Rim 21, 17, -15% 1, 36, 26% Eastern Inner Rim 143, 142, -1% 14, 12, -14% Outer Rim 1,349, 1,37, -3% 55, 8, -85% Total 4,781, 4,514, -6% 582, 583, % BNP PARIBAS REAL ESTATE - Research - October 211 BNP PARIBAS REAL ESTATE - Research - October 211 Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate

4 AT A GLANCE - PARIS OFFICE MARKET - OCTOBER IMMOSTAT AREA VILLENEUVE- LA-GARENNE GENNEVILLIERS ST-DENIS RUEIL- MALMAISON NANTERRE ST-CLOUD SÈVRES SURESNES COLOMBES LA GARENNE- COLOMBES LA DÉFENSE PUTEAUX Boulogne BOULOGNE MEUDON COURBEVOIE BOIS- COLOMBES ASNIÈRES- SUR-SEINE NEUILLY ISSY-LES-MX 16 LEVALLOIS 15 VANVES CHÂTILLON CLICHY 17 MONTROUGE MALAKOFF 8 7 BAGNEUX ST-OUEN ARCUEIL CACHAN GENTILLY LE KREMLIN- BICÊTRE VILLEJUIF AUBERVILLIERS IVRY PANTIN LE PRÉ- ST-GERVAIS 2 CHARENTON- LE-PONT LES LILAS BAGNOLET ST-MANDÉ BOBIGNY MONTREUIL VINCENNES Vincennes ST-MAURICE Paris Paris Centre West Paris 3/4/1/11 FONTENAY- SOUS-BOIS NOGENT- SUR-M. JOINVILLE- LE-PONT La Défense Peri-Défense Neuilly/Levallois Paris 5/6/7 Paris 12/13 Paris 14/15 Paris 18/19/2 BNPPRE Research Marketing 29 Northern Southern Eastern Inner Rim Northern Inner Rim Southern Inner Rim Source : Immostat

5 AT A GLANCE - LES BUREAUX EN ÎLE-DE-FRANCE - OCTOBRE GLOSSARY The numerical data used by BNP Paribas Real Estate for its statistics feature all the information at the group s disposal when compiling them. These statistics may change according to new information brought to our knowledge that is often confidential to begin with. Definitions from A to Z Building: New: Building built within the last 5 years. Major Refurbishment: Building which has undergone structural alteration less than five years ago, subject to planning permission. Recent: Building less than 1 years old. Renovated: Building which has undergone renovation work not requiring for planning permission less than five years ago. Modern: high-performance building over 1 years old. Old: low-performance building over 1 years old. CCI (Cost of Construction Index): index that makes quarterly measurements of construction prices for new house building. It is the price after VAT paid by the owner to construction companies. It excludes land-related prices and costs (site development, special foundations, etc.), fees and financial costs. Demand: a search for premises expressed to BNP Paribas Real Estate. The analysis pertains only to the flow of new demand expressed. For the occupier: operation undertaken by an occupier for its own purposes New supply: Any new building and/or heavily refurbished building that adds to the existing stock. These are analysed according to progress. Completed new supply: buildings on which construction work is finished. Under construction: buildings on which construction has effectively begun. Prior demolition work is not taken into account. Planning permission granted: authorisation to build obtained, generally booked after settlement of third party claims. Planning permission submitted : planning permission requested, being processed. Projects: identified intention of a building operation for which no request has been filed. HQE: voluntary initiative for high-quality environmental management of construction or refurbishment of buildings. This is an initiative by real estate and construction professionals and is subject to a certification procedure drawn up by AFNOR (Association Française de Normalisation). Immediate supply: all vacant premises and buildings, available immediately for letting and occupation. Immostat: an Economic Interest Group founded in 21, through an association between BNP Paribas Real Estate, CB Richard Ellis, DTZ Jean-Thouard, and Jones Lang LaSalle. In the interests of consistency, the brokers adopted numerous joint definitions: market districts in Île-de-France, conditions of buildings and premises, definitions of surface areas to be taken into account, rents, etc. The structure of the EIG guarantees the independence of data processing and respect for the confidentiality commitments of each of its members. New or major-refurbished offices: New: premises in a new building that have never been occupied. Major Refurbishment: premises in a refurbished building that have never been occupied. Office stock: includes all completed offices, vacant or occupied. The office stock includes offices of the public and private sectors. In Île-de-France, it is regularly updated by the Observatoire Régional de l Immobilier d Entreprise d Île-de-France (ORIE) and the Direction Régionale de l Equipement d Île-de- France [Regional Facilities Department for Île-de-France] (DREIF) from the official statistics on new construction, the annual taxation on offices, as well as the data relative to demolition. Owner-occupier development: construction of a building for an occupier who has signed a bill of sale on a property still to be built. Pre-letting: Transaction signed by an occupier more than 6 months before the delivery of the building Rent: Headline rent: annual rent per square metre, featured on the lease, and expressed excluding taxes and charges. Does not include attached premises such as parking areas, archives, staff canteens, etc. If the rental is progressive, the value applied is the average for the first three years or the fixed term of the lease. Average headline rent: Weighted average of rented area. The average featured is a moving average over three quarters, to smooth out the changes. Underlying rent: Annual rent per square metre expressed free of tax and charges and excluding advantages agreed by the owner (rent incentives, building works, etc.). Prime rent: represents the top headline rent (excluding non significant transactions) for an office unit: - of standard size - of the highest quality and specification - in the best location in each market. Top rent: represents the top headline rent for an office unit. It is not necessarily a prime rent. Second hand premises: Premises that have been previously occupied by an occupier for vacant for more than five years. Renovated: premises that have been renovated for the new occupier. Very good condition: high-performance premises of high quality. Existing state of repair: low-performance premises that can be rented as they are. To be renovated: low-performance premises that need renovation. Speculative / Non-speculative operation: Speculative: construction launched without prior rental or sale to the occupier. Non-speculative: construction launched after partial or complete sale or rental to an occupier Supply available within one year: all premises and buildings available within one year, including the supply available immediately, new supply that has not been pre-let and second-hand supply that will be vacated definitively (notably terminated leases). Take-up: rental or sale of a property asset, finalised by the signature of a lease or a bill of sale, including turnkey transactions and owner-occupier. The transaction is only taken into account once any existing conditional clauses have been lifted. Turnkey rental: construction of a building for an occupier who has signed a lease on a property still to be built. Vacancy rate: ratio measuring the relationship between the supply immediately available and the existing stock. BNP Paribas Real Estate Disclaimer clause BNP Paribas Real Estate cannot be held responsible if, despite its best efforts, the information contained in the present report turns out to be inaccurate or incomplete. This report is released by BNP Paribas Real Estate and the information in it is dedicated to the exclusive use of its clients. The report and the information contained in it may not be copied or reproduced without prior permission from BNP Paribas Real Estate. 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6 CONTACTS RESEARCH BUSINESS LINES Tél. : +33 () PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT Barbara Koreniouguine Tel.: +33 () barbara.koreniouguine@bnpparibas.com Richard MALLE Head of Research richard.malle@bnpparibas.com Guillaume JOLY Research Analyst - Offices in IDF guillaume.joly@bnpparibas.com CONSULTING / STRATÉGIE IMMOBILIÈRE Sylvain HASSE Tel.: +33 () sylvain.hasse@bnpparibas.com VALUATION Jean-Claude DUBOIS Tel.: +33 () jean-claude.j.dubois@bnpparibas.com PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Jean-Claude TANGUY Tel.: +33 () jean-claude.tanguy@bnpparibas.com INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT Etienne DUPUY Tel.: +33 () etienne.dupuy@bnpparibas.com Jacqueline FAISANT Tel.: +33 () jacqueline.faisant@bnpparibas.com TRANSACTION Thierry LAROUE PONT Tel.: +33 () thierry.larouepont@bnpparibas.com Laurent BOUCHER Tel.: +33 () laurent.boucher@bnpparibas.com TRANSACTION ÎLE-DE-FRANCE OFFICES Jean-Laurent DE LA PRADE Head of Offices in Île-de-France Letting under 5, m2 Tel.: +33 () jean-laurent.delaprade@bnpparibas.com François CHAUVEY Head of Offices in Île-de-France Letting and Sales over 5, m² Immeuble Les Mercuriales 4 Rue Jean Jaures - Bagnolet Tel.: +33 () francois.chauvey@bnpparibas.com Loïc-Raphaël CUVELIER Head of Offices in western Île-de-France Letting under 5, m² Tel.: +33 () loic-raphael.cuvelier@bnpparibas.com Eric BERAY Head of Offices in Paris and western Île-de-France Letting over 5, m² Tel.: +33 () eric.beray@bnpparibas.com Aymeric LE ROUX Head of Offices in Paris Letting under 5, m² Tel.: +33 () aymeric.leroux@bnpparibas.com Guillaume NOULIN Head of Offices in western river-bank and southwestern Île-de-France Letting under 5, m² Tel.: +33 () guillaume.noulin@bnpparibas.com Jean-René BARD Head of Offices in Paris and western & southern Île-de-France Sales Tel.: +33 () jean-rene.bard@bnpparibas.com Non contractual document - Research department October 211 BNP Paribas Real Estate : Simplified joint stock company with capital of RCS NANTERRE - Code NAF 411B - CE identification number : FR Headquarters: Issy Les Moulineaux Cedex - BNP Paribas Real Estate is part of the BN P Paribas Banking Group. USA