Eastern Europe Office Market Review

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1 RESEARCH & FORECAST SNAPSHOT 2013 EASTERN EUROPE OFFICE SUMMARY Eastern Europe Office Market Review CEE Markets: Warsaw, Prague, Bratislava, Budapest, Bucharest SEE Markets: Athens, Sofia, Belgrade, Zagreb Tirana Russia & Ukraine Markets: Moscow, St Petersburg Kyiv INTRODUCTION The following report provides an overview of office market trends across the Eastern European region. Given the diverse geography, size, maturity, economic position and linkages of the respective major markets within the region, we have grouped each major city market into three sub-regions: CEE, SEE and Russia/Ukraine. This allows for a more direct comparison of sub-regions, and of markets within each sub-region. The following map provides an overview of probable vacancy rate and subsequent rental growth trends in the year ahead. In summary The two Russian cities of Moscow and St Petersburg are the most likely to positive vacancy change and rental growth in These economies are least impacted externally by macro-economic issues in the Eurozone. In comparison, the main CEE markets will see GDP growth rates decline and vacancy rates increase relative to 2012, exerting downward pressure on rents over 2013, particularly in the more cyclical market of Warsaw which has a very strong development pipeline. Interestingly, the majority of SEE markets are set to benefit from a positive upturn in fortunes in the year ahead as vacancy and rental rates finally stabilise in response to marginal increases in GDP growth rates. That said, short-term stock adjustments may see vacancy rise in Zagreb and Tirana putting downward pressure on prime rents. LEGEND 2013 Vacancy Forecast 2013 Prime Rent Forecast ST PETERSBURG MOSCOW WARSAW PRAGUE KYIV BRATISLAVA BUDAPEST ZAGREB BELGRADE BUCHAREST TIRANA SOFIA ATHENS 1 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

2 RESEARCH & FORECAST SNAPSHOT 2013 Eastern Europe CEE Modern Office Stock Growth: Central Eastern Europe (CEE) SUPPLY Total modern office stock in the CEE sub-region now stands at almost 13 million m². Warsaw, Prague and Budapest account for 77% of this figure, with Bratislava and Bucharest accounting for the remaining 25%. a total of about 6 million m². New completions brought an additional 506,000 m² of modern office space to the major CEE markets, representing a 4% increase in stock from end This is practically the same volume of completions as in 2011, but the composition has changed markedly over the year. Warsaw accounted for over half of the new deliveries, as 267,000 m² of space completed construction. This represents a 120% increase over 2011 when the Warsaw market delivered only 120,000 m² of new supply. Gross Take-up: Prague and Bratislava were relatively constant, with 89,000 m² of space delivered in Prague, marginally down from the 100,000 m² which completed in 2011; Bratislava saw completions fall from 66,000 m² to 58,000 m² over the year. Bucharest and Budapest saw larger falls in new completion rates Bucharest deliveries almost halved from 114,000 m² in 2011 to 60,000 m² in 2012; Budapest deliveries were more significantly down to 23,000 m² from 87,000 m² the year before a 76% drop. DEMAND After the dip in occupational activity in 2009 when the global economic crisis first took hold of the markets, gross take-up has continued to operate at healthy levels - at around 10% of total modern stock. Gross take-up activity is a reflection of market size, with Warsaw (614,000 m²) accounting for the lions share of activity, followed by Budapest (345,000 m²), Prague (274,000 m²), Bucharest (168,000 m²) and then Bratislava (103,000 m²). That said, only the Warsaw and Bratislava markets witnessed year-on-year growth in take-up during The Bucharest market remained virtually flat, whilst take-up in Prague and Budapest was on the decline. Vacancy Rate/Vacant Space: [%; million m²] Despite relatively robust levels of gross take-up, it is clear that there is a greater amount of operational churn taking place in the markets than there is actual net growth in demand. Despite an increase in demand from both new occupiers and existing expansions, the majority of activity is being driven by existing occupiers seeking a combination of better space and/or lease terms. This is made clear by upward vacancy trends. VACANCY NVR From the volume of vacant space in the market increased markedly. Despite a relatively flat period from , the volume of vacant space increased again in 2012 by 15%, to reach 1.8 million m² of vacant office space 12% of the entire modern regional stock. Other than Prague, which remained virtually flat, all markets witnessed a similar proportional increase in vacancy rates over There is, however, a significant difference between each market in terms of where each is positioned relative to the typical natural vacancy rate (NVR) range. *NVR (natural vacancy rate) The Warsaw market position at the bottom of the NVR band suggests marginal upward pressure on Warsaw rents leading up to the end of Conversely, there is marginal downward pressure on rents in both the Prague and Bratislava markets at just above the top-end of the NVR band. There is far greater downward pressure on rents in Bucharest and Budapest which sit above the top NVR mark. 2 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

3 RESEARCH & FORECAST SNAPSHOT 2013 Eastern Europe CEE Net Effective Rents: [ m²/ month] Central Eastern Europe RENTS Vacancy is only one determinant of rental behaviour. The quality of existing availability and historic rental trends provide a clearer indication of the likely movement of rents looking forward. Over 2012, the Budapest office market showed the only downward rental movement in the CEE region with a fall of 10% over the year, as net effective rents fell back to 2009/10 rents of 16 m²/ month. Budapest net effective rents now sit in the second-lowest ranking position of all CEE markets, just above Bratislava at 13.5 m²/ month. Net effective rents in Bratislava and Prague remained largely flat over the year, as they have done for the past three years post-crisis. There was no fall in net effective rents in Bucharest, despite an increase in vacancy, as the market appears to have pre-empted the 2012 rise in vacancy as net effective rents fell to 17 m²/ month by end Active Construction Pipeline: Only Poland witnessed an increase in net effective rents, despite an increase in vacancy over the year which resulted from the significant increase in completions. Warsaw net effective rents now stand at 27 m²/ month. FORECAST SUPPLY & DEMAND 2012 closed with the highest amount of square meters under construction since year-end At just over 1.2 million m² in the pipeline this represents an increase of about 30% y-o-y, and will increase the existing stock by around 8%. The composition of new supply has seen a marked change over the last seven years, with the pipeline of Warsaw increasing most markedly. The pipelines of all other markets have shrunk - most notably Budapest and Bucharest - or remained around the same level in the case of Prague and Bratislava. What is also notable, is the extent to which the inactive pipeline of the region has increased during 2012 as developers postponed schemes in Bratislava, Budapest, Bucharest and Prague in response to challenging market conditions. Warsaw is yet to see any schemes postponed, but with vacancy rising and the pipeline running ahead of demand, this could become a feature of this market in due course GDP vs GDP Forecast Range [%] PROGNOSIS Firstly, given that office markets tend to operate on a five year lease cycle, 2013 will be the last year of robust take-up levels if 2008 take-up is a precursor to the year ahead. This also means that 2014 is likely to see a fall in activity, given the low take-up rates recorded in Secondly, although the general consensus is that all CEE countries will see GDP growth in 2013, growth rates are forecast to be lower than in With only Romania and Poland set to post GDP growth above 2% in the year ahead, take-up will be impacted negatively. Given the typical 6-12 month lag between GDP growth and take-up, this is likely to compound lower take-up volumes in 2013 and into Rents will come under downward pressure in all markets over the year ahead, but to varying degrees. Warsaw is the market most likely to see a decline in prime net effective rents. Bucharest, Budapest and Bratislava are already at or close to the bottom of their rent curves so should not see too much of an impact on rents, whilst history suggests Prague rents should remain stable unless there is a significant fall in demand. /FocusEconomics/IMF The most probable impact, particularly in markets with active pipelines that have been strongly pre-let, is increased occupational pressure on lower quality existing stock in an increasingly competitive market. 3 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

4 RESEARCH & FORECAST SNAPSHOT 2013 Eastern Europe SEE South Eastern Europe (SEE) Modern Office Stock Growth: SUPPLY As we head into the SEE sub-region, there is a noticeable drop in market size in the combined cities of Athens, Sofia, Belgrade, Zagreb and Tirana. Combined they are less than 40% of the size of their CEE counterparts at just over 5 million m2. Athens and Sofia dominate the total SEE office stock accounting for 70% of total modern space. Over the last six years, Sofia has accounted for the majority of new stock which has been delivered, tripling in size during this period. This development boom appears to have finally caught up with the market, as only 150,000 m² of new space was delivered to the market in a significant deceleration in activity. The only other market to witness an increase in stock in 2012 was the Zagreb market as 66,000 m² of new office space completed. Gross Take-up: Overall, total new supply amounted to 237,000 m² resulting in an annual supply growth rate of 4%. This is the lowest rate on record since 2006 and represents a 35% decline compared to DEMAND The decline in new supply did not, however, accompany a decline in take-up which grew by 13% over Not all markets were equally impacted. The Sofia market saw the largest drop in take-up activity, year-on-year, with take-up reaching 85,000 m², almost 30% down on the 120,000 m² of take-up in Conversely, Athens actually posted marginal growth in take-up during 2012 although this is still far down on the levels of take-up seen in * No data available for Athens pre 2010 ** no data available for Tirana Vacancy Rate/Vacant Space: [%; million m²] In Belgrade, take-up growth was more positive relative to 2011, reaching around 66,000 m². Meanwhile in Zagreb, activity remained relatively constant. VACANCY Across the entire sub-region, the volume of available space on the market has risen sharply since 2009 by about 53%. There is now a collective 961,000 m² of vacant space available across the territory which equates to an aggregate vacancy rate of around 15%. Naturally, there are significant differences in vacancy rates within each market. Whilst the Tirana market has remained relatively flat at a vacancy rate of 10% for the past four years, there have been more significant changes across the other markets. The vacancy rate in both Athens and Zagreb has started to creep up over the last few years and now stands at 16% and 15% respectively. NVR Conversely, the markets of Belgrade and Sofia have both witnessed a decline in their vacancy rates in the last couple of years. The Belgrade rate has fallen from around 22% to 15% at end of 2012, whilst the Sofia rate has been seen a more marginal fall from 26% to 24%. Bar, Tirana, however, all markets are operating at vacancy rates above a typical NVR band, which suggests there has been downward pressure on rents for at least the last couple of years. 4 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

5 RESEARCH & FORECAST SNAPSHOT 2013 Eastern Europe SEE South Eastern Europe Net Effective Rents: [ m²/ month] RENTS Net effective rents over time behave very much in line with vacancy rate trends. Net effective prime rents in Tirana, for example, have remained stable at 24 m²/ month for the last six years, just as vacancy has been kept at around the 10% mark over the same period. These represent the highest rents across the sub-region, in what is a naturally small market. In the larger market of Sofia, prime net effective rents have inversely mirrored vacancy rate trends registering a significant drop in 2009 as vacancy rose rapidly to 26%. Rents have subsequently bounced along the bottom as vacancy has remained close to this level, although net effective rents rose marginally to 12 m²/month at end 2012 as vacancy rates fell to 24%. They remain 45% off their market peak rates. Active Construction Pipeline: Prime net effective rents in all the other markets have shown a more gradual decline over the last few years in response to increasing vacancy and weakening office demand. Zagreb and Belgrade have shown a very similar decline in net effective rents of around 17% from peak rates, to 14 m²/month and 15 m²/month respectively. Athens has also seen net effective rents fall, but perhaps not as much as one would expect given the severe economic crisis which has engulfed the country. Rents are only down by around 15% to 18 m²/month. FORECAST SUPPLY AND DEMAND In response to local economic conditions in the sub-region, the active development pipeline in each market has fallen year-on-year since the onset of the global economic crisis. As of end 2012, as little as 400,000 m² of modern office space was under active construction, representing a hefty decrease of 18% year-on-year. The pipeline is falling as a result of schemes reaching physical completion, but also as a result of developers placing schemes on hold, until better market conditions resume. This is particularly the case in Sofia and Athens, and is an important course of action by the development community if the markets are to recover and bring about stable rents with prospects for sustainable rental growth in future. PROGNOSIS 2012 GDP vs GDP Forecast Range [%] 2012 saw almost no GDP growth in any of the SEE economies, with the Greek market suffering more than most for well documented reasons, with GDP of around -5%. Serbia and Croatia also posted negative GDP growth of around -0.5%. The good news is that better times are forecast for all of these SEE countries, with GDP growth set to be up to 4% in Serbia, up to 3% in Bulgaria and Albania and up to 1% in Croatia. This should translate into stronger take-up in the year ahead, although it may take until the latter half of the year for this improvement to occur. It is clearly far more difficult to predict an economic outcome for Greece, with local difficulties set to continue into Croatia also has the added advantage of EU accession in 2013, as the government works hard towards improving transparency, diversifying it s economy and increase the range of viable investment options. Although history shows us that the majority of FDI flows to a new EU country tend to precede accession, 2013 should see improvements in foreign direct investment into the economy, boosting growth in occupational activity. /FocusEconomics/IMF Overall, we don t expect a great deal of change within each office market other than a more stable vacancy and rent regime, although the first half of 2013 may see a brief rise in vacancy in Tirana and Zagreb as new space enters the market, putting some downward pressure on rents. 5 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

6 RESEARCH & FORECAST SNAPSHOT 2013 Eastern Europe RUSSIA & UKRAINE Russia & Ukraine Modern Office Stock Growth: SUPPLY The total modern office stock of Moscow, St Petersburg and Kyiv stood at 17 million m² at the end of Moscow dominates, accounting for 80% of this figure standing at almost 14 million m². In total about 822,000 m² was brought to the market in 2012, the lowest amount of newly added space since Although Moscow contributed the majority of this new space. In contrast to previous years, the Kyiv market saw an increase in new completions of 63% year-on-year, whilst completion rates in Moscow and St Petersburg both fell by 20%. Gross Take-up: DEMAND In tune with a marginal fall in new completions, gross take-up activity also fell by 7% to around 2 million m² for the year. This is the first fall in take-up, post crisis, and was driven by declines in the Moscow market. There were no significant changes in the composition of take-up as Moscow continued to account for 84% of all activity. The decline in demand in Moscow appears to be directly linked to an annual fall in Russian GDP from 4.4% in 2011 to 3.4% at end This GDP fall is purported to be the direct result of weaker domestic demand. Take up in Kyiv also declined over the year, falling by 20% to 112,000 m². St Petersburg, however, saw a noticeable 25% rise in take-up reaching 178,000 m² by year-end. Vacancy Rate/Vacant Space: [%; million m²] NVR Net Effective Rents: [US$ m²/ month] VACANCY The balance of changes in supply and demand have created contrasting levels of performance of the office market in each respective city, using vacancy rates and rents as lead indicators. In Kyiv, the timing of falling demand relative to increasing levels of new completions has led to an increase in vacancy to 16.5% at year end Despite this recent rise in vacancy, which is the first time vacancy has risen for four years, prime net effective rents remained stable over the course of the year. In St Petersburg, however, vacancy rates continued to fall for the third year in a row and are now sub-10% for the first time since At 9.1%, this represents a very healthy level of vacancy for the market, and should help keep rents growing steadily along the same path they have taken since In Moscow, we see a similar story to that of St Petersburg in that vacancy rates continued to fall for the third year in a row. At 8.35%, we should see prime net rents continue to rise although this rate of growth started to tail off in RENTS At US$54 m²/ month, St. Petersburg has seen prime net effective rents reach their highest level since Despite this growth in rents, Moscow continues to be the most costly Russian market with rents operating at US$78 m²/ month. It is worth noting that even at this rate, Moscow rents are still less than 70% of their peak 2007 rate. Prime net effective rents in Kyiv remain at the bottom end of the dollar denominated market scale at US$35.5 m²/ month, and remain 35% of their peak 2008 value. 6 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

7 RESEARCH & FORECAST SNAPSHOT 2013 Eastern Europe RUSSIA & UKRAINE Russia & Ukraine Active Construction Pipeline: FORECAST SUPPLY AND DEMAND In response to current market conditions, the amount of development completions in St. Petersburg is set to increase considerably in 2013, with space actively under construction increasing 150% from 111,000 m² in 2012 to 270,000 m² at the start of In Moscow, the pipeline also increased by 10% over the year. This will bring an additional 200,000 m² to the market, and puts the active development pipeline of Moscow at 2.7 million m². The active pipeline of Kyiv, on the other hand, remains fairly constant year-on-year, with around 170,000 m² of space set to be delivered to the market in 2013, 70% of which is Grade A space GDP vs GDP Forecast Range [%] In terms of demand changes, the Russian economy which is the driver of activity in all markets, albeit more indirectly in Kyiv is set to see continued positive growth in Forecasts for GDP growth in the year ahead range from 2-6.8%, with the consensus at around 3.5%, matching the 2012 growth rate. In the Ukraine, GDP growth forecasts are also wide ranging from a negative -0.5% to a very positive 4%. With the general consensus at 1.6%, this will help to keep demand moving in the year ahead but at a marginally lower rate than in PROGNOSIS Positive economic growth should keep demand at pace with, if not ahead of, the active pipeline in the year ahead keeping vacancy stable and maintaining pressure on rents in both Moscow and St Petersburg. Moscow may see vacancy rates fall further, leading to more aggressive rental growth. Oil prices also remain high, without being excessive, which is always a positive psychological boost to the Moscow market. In Kyiv there is likely to be a short-term spike in vacancy rates given the sudden rise in quality modern space. Both headline and prime net effective rents are expected to remain flat or slightly decrease in the year ahead. /FocusEconomics/IMF 7 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

8 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT SNAPSHOT 2013 EASTERN EUROPE COLLIERS RESEARCH 512 offices in 61 countries on 6 continents United States: 125 Canada: 38 Latin America: 18 Asia Pacific: 214 EMEA: 117 $1.5 billion in annual revenue million square feet under management Over 12,500 professionals EASTERN EUROPE: Damian Harrington, MRICS; MSc Regional Director - Research & Consulting Eastern Europe Regional Team CEE Investment Services Mobile Main Juliane Priesemeister, MSc Regional Research Analyst Research & Consulting Eastern Europe Regional Team Mobile Main The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Colliers Research Services Group is recognized as a knowledge leader in the commercial real estate industry, providing clients with valuable market intelligence to support business decisions. Colliers research analysts provide multi-level support across all property types, ranging from data collection to comprehensive market analysis. Across the Eastern European region of EMEA, Colliers researchers regularly collect and update data on key real estate metrics, set to consistent definitions bringing greater transparency and reliability to our real estate market analysis in the region. In most Eastern European markets, the office definitions used are consistent with those set out by the CEE Research Forum an umbrella group, of which Colliers is a founding member. Definitions of the key metrics used in our regular reports are highlighted below. KEY METRIC DEFINITIONS Prime Net Initial Yield: The yield an investor is prepared to pay to buy a Grade A building, fully-let to high quality tenants at an open market rental value in a prime location. Lease terms should be commensurate with the market. As a calculation Net initial yield = First years net income/purchase price (prior to deducting fees and taxes) Prime Headline Rent: Represents the top open-market tier of rent that could be expected for a unit of standard size commensurate with demand, of the highest quality and specification in the best location in the market at the survey date. This should reflect the level at which relevant transactions are being completed at the time but need not be exactly identical to any of them, particularly if deal flow is very limited or made up of unusual one-off deals. If there are no relevant transactions during the survey period, the quoted figure will be more hypothetical, based on expert opinion of market conditions. The figure excludes service charges, taxes, and tenant incentives. Prime Net Effective Rent: Prime Net Effective Rent is the lowest rent payable, based on a calculation of the Prime Headline Rent, less the monetary value of the discount achieved through landlord incentives inc. rent-free periods and/or fit-out contributions. Total Occupational Market Activity (Take-up): Total Occupational Market Activity is the total floorspace known to have been let or sold as one of the following activity types during the survey period: Pre-let, New Occupation/Lease, Renewal/Renegotiation, Expansion, Sub-lease and Sale & Leaseback. Net Take-up: Net Take-up represents the sum of all Total Occupational Market Activity categories which represent a net increase in demand for space. This would only include the following activity types: Pre-lets, New Occupation/lease, Expansion Total Competitive Stock - Offices: Includes the gross leasable floorspace in all A and B class buildings, including owner-occupied buildings but excluding government owned properties. Anciilary office space is only included if it can be reasonably used independently of the primary use of the building in which it is located. Total Competitive Stock - Industrial: Includes the gross leasable floorspace in all A and B class buildings, including speculative, Build to suit and owner-occupied stock. Other reference points include that the building must be heated and have a clear usable height minimum of 6metres. This includes both warehouse (500m2+)& bulk space (10,000m2+). Total Competitive Stock Retail Shopping Centres: Split into two categories Traditional & Specialised as per ISCS definitions. Traditional includes retail properties that are planned, built and managed as a single entity, comprising units and communal areas with a minimum gross leasable area (GLA) of 5,000 square metres. Specialised A specialised shopping center is defined as a specific, purpose-built retail that is typically open-air with a minimum gross leasable area (GLA) of 5,000 m2. This includes Retail Parks, Factory Outlet Centres and Theme-Oriented Centres. Space Under Active Construction: Represents the total amount of gross leasable floorspace of properties where construction has commenced on a new development or where a major refurbishment/renovation is ongoing at the survey date. Vacant Space: The total gross leasable floorspace in existing properties that meet the Competitive Stock definition, which is physically vacant and being actively marketed at the survey date. Space should be available for immediate occupation. 8 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

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