2011 Real Estate Report - World Overview

Transcription

1 AT A GLANCE LOGISTICS IN FRANCE JANUARY : BEST YEAR FOR THE LOGISTICS MARKET IN THREE YEARS In 2011, 2.2 million m² of logistics assets was transacted in France, i.e. 33% more than in After a glum start to the year, the market grew from quarter to quarter, up to a record 855,000 m² by Q4. The worsening of the sovereign debt crisis from August has therefore not yet had an impact on the French logistics market. These healthy figures are the result of both a return by logistics providers, for whom take-up had slumped since 2009, and a healthy trend for retailers. Indeed, 67 deals out of the 143 that took place in 2011 were by retailers, who are moving into bigger spaces than other occupiers also saw the return of major deals (over 40,000 m²), including Conforama with 67,000 m² at Saint-Georges d Espéranche (Isère), Boulanger with 50,000 m² in Maine-et-Loire or ND Logistics with 50,000 m² in Coudray-Montceaux. At the same time, availability within a year begun to contract since the beginning of the year, standing at 3 million m² in December 2011 (i.e. a fall of 20% compared to December 2010). This decline stems from two factors: the outstanding level of take-up and the almost complete lack of new availability arriving on the market; and it concerns all categories of warehouse. The availability of new grade A buildings, popular with occupiers, has declined by 38% in a year. To contend with this lack of new availability, occupiers have turned their attention to second-hand grade A warehouses, for which supply has risen constantly since They have also shown greater interest in owner-occupier and turnkey deals, of which there were a particularly high number over the year, amounting to 655,000 m². New supply only represents 17% of the overall availability, i.e. its lowest level since Nevertheless, we have identified a growing number of deals currently on stand-by but for which planning permission has been granted or is pending. These accounted for 1.8 million m² in December Greater Paris accounts for most deals with 1.1 million m² taken up (+33% in a year), of which 356,000 m² of owner-occupier and turnkey deals. The increase in transactions has mainly benefited the Eastern and Western parts of Ile-de-France as well as the 3rd Ring, confirming the geographical easing of logistics in the region. The big national retailers have made many deals, in a bid to reorganise their logistical frameworks. In particular, Franprix took 50,000 m² in Saint Mard, Decathlon 33,000 m² in Marne-la-Vallée and FNAC 23,000 m² in Wissous. Availability within a year has slipped by 7% to 1.4 million m² of which only 14% new warehouses. Logistics markets around the main cities on the North-South axis enjoyed a particularly good year in 2011., and particularly saw increases in take-up after a decline in These figures are partly attributable to the resumption of major deals, such as that of Geodis at Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône for 64,000 m², Logistique Grimonprez in Lesquin for 47,000 m² or Carrefour at Plaine de l Ain for 35,000 m². In these markets, the level of availability within a year has plummeted and represents less than a year of take-up in and. Rents were largely flat in 2011 but could be boosted by the fall in availability in the coming quarters. They stand at /m² in Greater Paris, in and in and. MARKET IN FRANCE* Supply in France Take-up in France Thousand m² 4,000 Grade A Space under construction Thousand m² Lease turnkey and owner-occupier development 4,000 New grade A 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Dec. 04 Dec. 05 Dec. 06 Dec. 07 Dec. 08 Dec. 09 Dec. 10 Dec. 11 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, *Greater Paris+ 19 cities where BNP Paribas Real Estate is established

2 2 SUPPLY IN FRANCE - 31 DECEMBER 2011 Dunkerque Le Havre Angers Le Mans Tours Paris Troyes Reims A vailability within a year (existing supply and space under construction) Planning permission granted Total area (m²)* 200,000 * data per city La Rochelle Bayonne TAKE-UP IN FRANCE Bayonne La Rochelle Angers Le Mans Le Havre Tours Clermont- Ferrand Dunkerque Clermont Ferrand Reims Paris Troyes Valence Valence BNP Paribas Real Estate Research Marketing ,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 Grade A Total area (m²)* 100,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 BNP Paribas Real Estate -Research - January 2012 BNP Paribas Real Estate -Research - January 2012 * data per city BNP Paribas Real Estate Research Marketing 2012

3 3 KEY FIGURES* Cities Grade A SUPPLY (m²) - 31 December 2011 Space under construction Planning permission granted Aix/ 108,000 38, ,000 18,000 53,000 37,000 Clermont-Ferrand 30,000 20, ,000 13,000 98,000 34, , , ,000 71,000 62,000 10,000 7,000 35,000 52,000 16,000 41,000 /Sophia 64,000 17,000 Greater Paris 805, ,000 24, ,000 26,000 33,000 15, , ,000 54,000 5,000 12,000 38,000 44,000 TAKE-UP (m²) Cities 2010 (12 months) Q (3 months) 2011 (12 months) Grade A Grade A Grade A Aix/ 59,000 22,000 88, ,000 16,000 36,000 7,000 47,000 21,000 30,000 Clermont-Ferrand 12,000 25,000 30,000 24,000 42, ,000 23,000 40, , , ,000 67,000 44,000 12, ,000 67,000 14,000 9,000 36,000 7,000 9,000 23,000 23,000 /Sophia 29,000 8,000 19,000 19,000 42,000 26,000 Greater Paris ** 512, , ,000 72, , ,000 31,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 59,000 14,000 7,000 52,000 19,000 60,000 19,000 26,000 25,000 * Cities where BNP Paribas Real Estate is established ** Immostat-IPD, BNP Paribas Real Estate

4 4 GLOSSARY The numerical data used by BNP Paribas Real Estate for its statistics feature all the information at the group s disposal when compiling them. These statistics may change according to new information brought to our knowledge that is often confidential to begin with. Definitions CCI (Cost of Construction Index): Index that makes quarterly measurements of construction prices for new house building. It is the price after VAT paid by the owner to construction companies. It excludes land-related prices and costs (site development, special foundations, etc.), fees and financial costs. Existing supply: All completed buildings actively seeking rental or sale to occupiers. Highly functionnal warehouses: Used also to name Grade A warehouses. HQE: Voluntary initiative for high-quality environmental management of construction or refurbishment of buildings. This is an initiative by real estate and construction professionals and is subject to a certification procedure drawn up by AFNOR (Association Française de Normalisation). Lease turnkey: construction of a building for an occupier who has signed a lease on a property still to be built. Licence to operate: Concerns units classified for environmental protection (installations classées pour la protection de l environnement ICPE). Authorisation is required for units that harbour potential risks or dangers. The classification of units establishes parameters such as size, products used or stored and the use of certain substances. All covered warehouses measuring over 50,000 m 3 must have at least 1510 authorisation. Logistics: The process of planning, implementing, and controlling procedures for the efficient and effective transportation and storage of goods, and related information from the point of origin to the point of consumption. Includes inbound, outbound, internal, and external movements. New supply: All building restructuring that adds to the existing stock. These are analysed according to progress. buildings on which construction work is finished. buildings on which construction has effectively begun. Prior demolition work is not taken into account. authorisation to build obtained, generally booked after settlement of third party claims. planning permission requested, being processed. identified intention of a building operation for which no request has been filed. New/major refurbished: Premises that have never been occupied in new buildings less than five years old. North-South Axis: This is what BNP Paribas Real Estate calls the logistical «corridor» in France. It is based along the A1, A5 and A6 motorways, which cross France from North to South. Its main agglomerations are Greater Paris,,, and. It comprises the main catchment areas of consumption and employment and currently includes most of the supply and transactions in France. OPCI (Organisme de Placement Collectif Immobilier): French real estate funds. They come in two forms: - Fonds de Placement Immobilier (FPI), real-estate investment funds for which the payout is taxed as classic property revenues, - Sociétés de Placement à Prépondérance Immobilière à Capital Variable (SPPICV) Variable capital, property-dominated investment funds for which the payout is taxed as dividends and share capital gains. Owner-occupier development: construction of a building for an occupier who has signed a bill of sale on a property still to be built. Portolio: Group of several assets located in different places. Rent: Common headline rent, expressed per square metre per year, and excluding taxes and charges. Reverse logistics: a specialised segment of logistics focusing on the flow of goods from the point of consumption to point of origin: - after sale and delivery to the customer for repair and/or credit - for the purpose of recapturing or creating value or proper disposal at the end of the product life cycle. SCPI (Société Civile de Placement Immobilier): Collective investment company formed to acquire and operate real estate by issuing shares to the public. Second hand premises: Premises that have been previously occupied by an occupier or vacant for more than five years. premises that have been renovated for the new occupier, high-performance premises of high quality. low-performance premises that can be rented as they are. low-performance premises that need renovation. SIIC (listed real estate investment company): The SIIC regime allows tax exemption on earnings as long as 85% of revenues are paid out to shareholders. Speculative / Non speculative operation: construction launched without prior rental or sale to the occupier. construction launched after partial or complete sale or rental to an occupier. Supply chain: All the elements in the process of supplying a product to a customer. The chain begins with the sourcing of raw materials and ends with the delivery of finished merchandise to the end-user. It embraces vendors, manufacturing facilities, logistics service providers, distribution centres, distributors, wholesalers, other intermediaries, etc. Supply chain management: Encompasses the planning and management of all activities involved in sourcing and procurement, conversion, and all logistics management activities. Transaction (Take-up): Rental or sale to an occupier of a real estate asset, sealed by the signature of a lease or deed, including turnkey and owneroccupier operations. The transaction is only taken into account once any existing conditional clauses have been lifted. Urban areas / Dispersed: Urban areas encompass the market locations where BNP Paribas Real Estate is established and in which market data has been collected consistently for several years. Everything not included in the scope of these urban areas has been classified as «dispersed». Warehouses: Buildings intended for storage, distribution or packaging. Their classification has been established by the Observatoire Régional de l Immobilier d Entreprise (ORIE) in Ile-de-France. These include: highly functional warehouses. Features must include height over 9.3 metres, bay area with depth of over 35 metres, one platform for every 1,000 m², ground resistance of at least 5 tonnes/m², heating, sprinkler system. warehouses complying to modern standards. Features must include height of over 7.5 metres, bay area with depth of over 32 metres, one platform for every 1,500 m 2, ground resistance of at least 3 tonnes/m 2, sprinkler system. distribution premises (packing-unpacking) of average height and width, with platform doors facing out along the length of the building. with thermal insulation and a cold source that can reach and maintain a low temperature (positive cold storage room: > 0 C or negative cold storage room: < 0 C). all warehouses not covered in other categories. Yield: ratio between net income (excl. operating costs) and the acquisition price including all acquisition costs. ratio between the net rent before taxes and charges on the date of sale and the selling price (all costs included). net lowest yield obtained for the acquisition of a unit: - of standard size, - of the highest quality and specification, - in the best location in each market. BNP Paribas Real Estate Disclaimer clause BNP Paribas Real Estate cannot be held responsible if, despite its best efforts, the information contained in the present report turns out to be inaccurate or incomplete. This report is released by BNP Paribas Real Estate and the information in it is dedicated to the exclusive use of its clients. The report and the information contained in it may not be copied or reproduced without prior permission from BNP Paribas Real Estate. Should you no longer wish to receive this report, or wish to modify the conditions of reception of this report, please send an to: unsubscribe.mailing@bnpparibas.com

5 CONTACTS RESEARCH 167, Quai de la Bataille de Stalingrad Tel.: +33 (0) Richard MALLE Head of Research Tiphaine CHATTON Deputy Head of Research Morgane LELIÈVRE Research Analyst - Logistics morgane.lelievre@bnpparibas.com LOGISTICS TRANSACTION Luc CHANDELON Associated director Logistics Coordinator in France Tel.: +33 (0) luc.chandelon@bnpparibas.com René JEANNENOT Partner Manager Industrial department Logistics in Ile-de-France Tel.: +33 (0) rene.jeannenot@bnpparibas.com Christophe PRIOUX Director-West Greater Paris Industrial Agency International Logistics Coordinator Tel.: + 33 (0) christophe.prioux@bnpparibas.com BUSINESS LINES PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT Barbara Koreniouguine Tel.: +33 (0) barbara.koreniouguine@bnpparibas.com CONSULTING Sylvain HASSE Tel.: +33 (0) sylvain.hasse@bnpparibas.com VALUATION Jean-Claude DUBOIS Tel.: +33 (0) jean-claude.j.dubois@bnpparibas.com PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Lauric LECLERC Tel.: +33 (0) lauric.leclerc@bnpparibas.com INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT Etienne DUPUY Tel.: +33 (0) etienne.dupuy@bnpparibas.com Jacqueline FAISANT Tel.: +33 (0) jacqueline.faisant@bnpparibas.com TRANSACTION Thierry LAROUE PONT Tel.: +33 (0) thierry.larouepont@bnpparibas.com Laurent BOUCHER Tel.: +33 (0) laurent.boucher@bnpparibas.com LOCATIONS IN FRANCE HEADQUARTERS 167, Quai de la Bataille de Stalingrad Tel.: +33 (0) GREATER PARIS Bagnolet Immeuble Les Mercuriales 40 rue Jean-Jaurés Bagnolet Tel.: +33 (0) Issy les Moulineaux 167, Quai de la Bataille de Stalingrad Tel.: +33 (0) Saint-Ouen-l Aumône 14 rue du Compas BP Saint-Ouen l Aumône Cergy Pontoise Cedex Tel.: +33 (0) REGIONS PAE Des Glaisins 19, avenue du Prè-de-Challes le-vieux Tel.: +33 (0) Les Bureaux de la Cité 23, Parvis des Chartrons Cedex Tel.: +33 (0) Alain SCHORI Deputy General Manager Head of the Regions Tel.: +33 (0) alain.schori@bnpparibas.com Clermont-Ferrand Elodie MARCHAND Marketing Ile-de-France Tel.: +33 (0) elodie.m.marchand@bnpparibas.com Immeuble Le Képler 3, rue Kléper Clermont-Ferrand Tel.: +33 (0) Immeuble Le Richelieu 10, boulevard Carnot Tel.: +33 (0) Immeuble Le Grenat 3, avenue du Doyen Louis Weil Tel.: +33 (0) , Tour de Boulevard de Turin Euralille Tel.: +33 (0) Tour Part-Dieu 129, rue Servient Cedex 3 Tel.: +33 (0) mail Pablo Picasso BP Cedex 01 Tel.: +33 (0) Immeuble Phoenix Arénas 455, promenade des Anglais Cedex 3 Tel.: +33 (0) , rue de la République Tel.: +33 (0) , boulevard de Dunkerque CS Cedex 2 Tel.: +33 (0) Centre d Affaires Athéas 11, rue Louis Kerautret-Botmel Tel.: +33 (0) WTC-Technopôle de 2, rue Augustin Fresnel cedex 3 Tel.: +33 (0) Immeuble Le Triangle 26, allée Jules Milhau CS Cedex 02 Tel.: +33 (0) Immeuble Europe 20, place des Halles Tel.: +33 (0) Immeuble Les Portes d Austrasie 40 rue Victor Tel.: +33 (0) Immeuble Le Bretagne 57, avenue de Bretagne Cedex 1 Tel.: +33 (0) Immeuble Europe 20, place des Halles Tel.: +33 (0) Immeuble le Sully 1, place Occitane BP Cedex 6 Tel.: +33 (0) Non contractual document - Research department January 2012 BNP Paribas Real Estate : Simplified joint stock company with capital of RCS NANTERRE - Code NAF 4110B - CE identification number : FR Headquarters: 167, Quai de la Bataille de Stalingrad Issy Les Moulineaux Cedex - BNP Paribas Real Estate is part of the BN P Paribas Banking Group. USA