Market Sentiment Survey

Transcription

1 Market Sentiment Survey H1 2014

2 Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey H Highlights 02 Explanation 03 Index 05 Office sector 09 Retail sector 13 Industrial sector 16 General sentiment

3 Highlights 1 Six months ago we reported some good news in respect of market expectations: for the first time, no respondents answered worsen to the question about the direction of expected change in investment appetite. This has now become more articulate with optimists having gained a majority: 54% expect investors to become more positive in the near future. Yields appear fairly stable with the exception of non-central offices and cheaper shops (retail parks and big box stores), where a degree of outward movement remains. Office rents show signs of having bottomed out by now, with typical rents reported to have increased in the Top CBD and Prime categories. Rents in the remaining sectors look less promising, with clear downward patterns still identifiable in relation to all of logistics and the Mall- Type Retail Park category. The Budapest Commercial Property Index (BCP H = ) has made a small downward move since H (-1.15, to a level of 89.59). The general level has been unchanged in the last 18 months with the overall trend still being downward. However, there are significant differences between property categories with top quality office and retail properties holding their perceived positions much stronger than the rest. The survey included a one-off question with regard to the results of the recent elections and their impact on institutional investors sentiment. The vast majority of the answers are either neutral (44%) or positive (37%). All median figures for H Rent ( /sqm/month) Yield (%) Typical Minimum Maximum Top CBD office building Prime non-cbd office building Good quality non-central office building Prime out-of-town logistics center Small Business Unit Top 5 shopping malls Mall-type retail park Big box retail Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey H1 2014

4 2 Explanation The most important output resulting from our research is the rental rates and yields data (presented in charts similar to the one below). As this publication is based on the opinions of individuals, these charts reflect the distribution of responses received in respect to a given variable, i.e. rental rates or yields related to a type of property. Extreme values were removed and the ranges of the remaining answers were then divided into subsections. The charts indicate the percentage of responses falling into each subsection, with the median value marked with a red vertical line (the median is the middle value of the data set when it has been arranged in ascending order, i.e. the numeric value separating the higher half of the data from the lower half). The survey included questions regarding the realistic minimum, maximum, and typical rental rates in respect to a particular type of property. While we also present all of these in a tabular format, the rate charts only include the responses to the question of typical rental rate levels. Explanatory example chart median of typical rent responses median of minimum rent responses median of maximum rent responses Ratio of responses (%) Distribution of typical rent responses Rent ( / sqm / month) H Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey

5 3 BCP Index The starting value of the Budapest Commercial Property Index was set to based on survey data collected in the second half of Since then, the Index has decreased by about 10 points; it moved near by H and has stayed there since. With an additional decline by just over one point, the Index has now moved under the 90-point mark for the first time. The index is made up of a compound value that traces senior real estate professionals assessments of current yields and rental rates for the commercial real estate market. A measure of value is created by dividing the median typical yearly rent by the current yield for each of the eight subsegments present in the survey, and attributing weights to these values in order to reflect the relative volume of each sub-segment. The results are then added up and compared against the other surveys. Overall, the impact of rent decreases since 2011 has been stronger than that of yield growth in the same period. Considering the latest survey, the picture is somewhat different: yields have caused all the loss compared to H2 2013, more than countering a slight positive change in rent levels. In terms of market sectors and property categories, good quality offices (Prime and Top CBD) contributed positively to the index in H1 2014, however, negative changes in all other categories exceeded this, resulting in a slight decrease in the composite value. It is worth noting that the inputs belonging to categories Top CBD Office and Top-5 Shopping Mall are exactly where they were in 2011, i.e. a hypothetical sub-index containing only these two high-value categories would now stand at BCP Index (H2 2011=100) H H H H H H Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey H1 2014

6 4 Categories 1. Top CBD office building 5. Mall-type retail park 2. Prime non-cbd office building 6. Big box retail 3. Good quality non-central office building 7. Prime out-of-town logistics center 4. One of the Top 5 shopping malls 8. Small Business Unit The survey uses eight hypothetical properties intended to represent major segments of the Budapest commercial property market. Their descriptions include typical characteristics in terms of location, quality, size, and occupancy, making them suitable investment products. When asking about rental rates, hypothetical lease transactions were defined to reflect an average exchange on the given market in terms of both size and basic conditions. The photos accompanying each detailed description of buildings are of properties that do not actually exist on the Hungarian market. However, they have been selected to create the right impressions of the scenario at hand and to ensure that all respondents consider the same property categories when answering the questions. H Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey

7 5 Office sector Having regard to the results of all the surveys to date there has not been any significant change in yield levels, while rents increased in a number of categories. Sentiment towards yield levels still shows stabilized values with only a minor outward shift of 25 basis points in the third office category. The biggest change is shown in the Top CBD Office category where both typical and maximum rents increased by 2 and 2.75 euros, respectively. A smaller 1 euro increase has been recorded in the typical rent of the Prime non-cdb Office category. A growth in the minimum and maximum rents of the third office category also indicates a sentiment towards stabilizing rents. Accordingly, the downward movement of rents that was still indicated in the last survey seems to stop, and the next survey will show if this trend will be sustained. Typical rents have had the tendency to approximate minimum rents, which now also seems to change. While yields indicate a sign of stabilization, cautious optimism is shown by increasing rents in all office categories. Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey H1 2014

8 6 1. Top CBD office 2. Prime non-cbd office A-category (according to BRF) office building located within the CBD of Budapest: Rent opinions ( /sqm/m) median=15 2 ' 16% 12% 8% 4% Rent opinions ( /sqm/m) median = 12 24% 2 16% 12% 8% 4% Yield opinions (%) Yield opinions (%) 4 median = represents the highest standard in the market in terms of technical specifications and prestige It has an underground garage The building is at least 9 let to multiple tenants, at least 8 of the tenants are international companies the average unexpired lease term is at least 4 years Market headline rental rate for a specific letting transaction: 500 sqm office space 5-year lease term strong international tenant A-category (according to BRF) office building located in an established, but non-cbd office location: represents high standard in the market in terms of technical specifications and prestige it has an underground garage the building is at least 9 let to multiple tenants at least 8 of the tenants are international companies the average unexpired lease term is at least 4 years Market headline rental rate for a specific letting transaction: 500 sqm office space 5-year lease term strong international tenant median = H Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey

9 7 3. Good quality non-central offices A-category (according to BRF) office building located in a non-central office location: built no more than 10 years ago Rent opinions ( /sqm/m) median = % 18% 12% 6% it has an underground garage good public transportation the building is at least 9 let to multiple tenants, not necessarily of international covenant the average unexpired lease term is at least 3 years Market headline rental rate for a specific letting transaction: 500 sqm office space 4-year lease term reliable and financially stable tenant Yield opinions (%) 3 median = There is bigger and bigger interest about Hungary from foreign investors side. This is not because Hungary gets so much better, simply there are no more markets out there. Nevertheless the outcome is the same higher interest. Rudolf Riedl MRICS, Raiffeisen Evolution Hungarian property is now generally seen as cheap and this fuels investor interest more than before, which is mostly opportunistic. Krisztián Hornok MRICS, Reconcept Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey H1 2014

10 8 Distribution of responses in 'CBD office rent' category 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Typical rent frequency (2014 H1) (MA) Typical rent frequency (2013 H2) (MA) Distribution of responses in 'Prime Non-CBD office rent' category 2 18% 16% 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Typical rent frequency (2014 H1) (MA) Typical rent frequency (2013 H2) (MA) H Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey

11 9 Retail sector Retail sector showed outward movement on yields (almost 50bp) with exception of TOP 5 mall, where sentiment toward prime yield has improved by 25bp to level at 7%. Sentiment towards rental levels is deteriorating in most of the retail categories continuously since H (except TOP 5 malls, where slight optimism of respondents during H has been noticed, but was corrected down again in H1 2014). Such trend could be aligned with consolidation of the market and positive expectations of the participants toward the future, where we notice decoupling between prime products and secondary non performing schemes. Retail sector continues to consolidate, cautious optimism is shown towards prime schemes. Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey H1 2014

12 10 4. One of the Top 5 shopping malls Prime shopping center located in Budapest, at a metro station or central location: 2 16% 12% 8% 4% GLA is at least 40,000 sqm, no vacancy the property accommodates at least major anchor tenants the average unexpired lease term is at least 5 years Market headline rental rate for a specific letting transaction: 200 sqm retail unit 5-7 year lease term strong international brand well-positioned unit within the centre Rent opinions ( /sqm/m) median = Yield opinions (%) 5 median = Mall-type retail parks Retail park located in Budapest, in an established location: GLA is approx. 12,000 sqm, no Rent opinions ( /sqm/m) median = vacancy the property accommodates at least 1 major anchor tenant the average unexpired lease term is at least 5 years Market headline rental rate for a specific letting transaction: sqm 5-year lease term local company / strong international brand Yield opinions (%) 4 median = H Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey

13 11 6. Big box retail Stand alone hypermarket located within an established retail park: GLA is at least 5,000 sqm and single let to a reliable and financially stable tenant the remaining lease duration is at least 10 years Market headline rental rate for a specific letting transaction: 5,000 sqm big-box, 10-year lease term reliable and financially stable tenant Market sentiment is improving. Both on occupational side (due to lack of supply) as well as investment appetite. Market however continues to diversify and only prime products or products with add value remain liquid. The rest can still only be traded with significant discounts. Jaroslav Kopac MRICS, JLL Rent opinions ( /sqm/m) median = Yield opinions (%) 2 median = There is a lot more movement in the market, however, only in selected market segments. There is demand for centrally located offices (let or vacant) and fully let small retail units/ supermarkets. A relatively small number of locally active investors continue to account for the bulk of the activity. György Lindwurm MRICS, DTZ Hungary Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey H1 2014

14 12 Distribution of responses in 'rental rates for the top 5 malls' category 16% 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Typical rent frequency (2014 H1) (MA) Typical rent frequency (2013 H2) (MA) Distribution of responses in 'rental rates for mall type retail parks' category Typical rent frequency (2014 H1) (MA) Typical rent frequency (2013 H2) (MA) H Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey

15 13 Industrial sector While the lowest rents are achievable in the industrial sector, sentiments showed the highest pressure also in respect of the Budapest logistics schemes. Prime out-oftown logistics category was last expected to start recovering by the end of In the contrary, rents have been considered to fall by 1 since then. Small Business Unit category has also reached the lowest estimates ever with typical rents falling under 4 per sq m per month. No change recorded though in the yield sentiments (9%). In terms of the respondents background, developers proved to be the most optimistic regarding the future of this property type. Responses show that there is still high pressure on industrial rents, while sentiment towards yield levels is stable. Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey H1 2014

16 14 7. Small Business Units A-category industrial property located within Budapest, close to main arterial road: GLA is at least 10,000 sqm (could be in multiple buildings) the property is approx. 10 let to multiple tenants the average unexpired lease term is at least 3 years Market headline rental rates for a specific letting transaction: 500 sqm warehouse space 3-year lease term reliable and financially stable tenant Rent opinions ( /sqm/m) median = % 18% 12% 6% Yield opinions (%) median = Prime out-of-town logistics centers A-category industrial property located approx 5 minutes from a motorway: Rent opinions ( /sqm/m) GLA is at least 25,000 sqm (could be in multiple buildings) The property is approx. 10 let to multiple tenants the average unexpired lease term is at least 4 years Market headline rental rates for a specific letting transaction: 3,000 sqm warehouse space 5-year lease term strong international tenant median = Yield opinions (%) median = H Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey

17 15 Distribution of responses in category 'rent of out-of-town logistics buildings' Typical rent frequency (2014 H1) (MA) Typical rent frequency (2013 H2) (MA) The continuing easing of interest rates, increased economic activity, govement (EU) subsidies and growing confidence in the future is finally helping pull Hungary, in particular Budapest and Győr, out of the deep recession in real estate. Hamish White MRICS, CIB Bank Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey H1 2014

18 16 General sentiment Which commercial segment do you think currently offers the best conditions for an Investor? Which commercial segment do you think currently offers the best conditions for a Developer? I don't know Other 6% I don't know 8% Industrial 9% Office 47% Other 19% Office 4 Retail 33% Industrial 14% Retail 14% How do you think investment appetite for property will change over the next six months? With regard to the recent parliamentary election results, do you expect the institutional investors sentiment towards Hungarian real estate market to? I don't know Worse 8% No answer 6% Decline 13% Same 38% Improve 37% Improve 54% Stagnate 44% A majority now expects investors appetite to improve, with offices seen as the most attractive sector for both investment and development. H Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey

19 17 Median yields (%) SMALL BUSINESS UNIT PRIME OUT OF TOWN LOG GOOD QUAL. NON-CEN OFF MALL TYPE RETAIL PARK BIG BOX RETAIL PRIME NON-CBD OFF TOP CBD OFF H H H H H H1 TOP 5 MALL Top CBD offices, rents (euro / sqm / month) maximum typical minimum H H H H H H1 Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey H1 2014

20 18 Out of town logistics, rents (euro / sqm / month) maximum typical minimum H H H H H H1 Top five malls, rents (euro / sqm / month) maximum typical minimum 2011 H H H H H H1 H Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey

21 19 About the survey A biannual publication, the Market Sentiment Survey is a collaboration between the Eltinga Centre of Real Estate Research, Portfolio.hu and RICS Hungary. It has been designed to provide a clear picture of how Hungary s senior real estate professionals see current yield and rental rates, as well as general market expectations. The purpose of the Market Sentiment Survey is to improve transparency on the Hungarian real estate market by establishing a benchmark for sentiment drawing on a wide professional basis. All Hungarian RICS members (both full members and candidates for membership) were invited to fill in a questionnaire prepared by RICS and Portfolio.hu. They were asked for their opinions on current market yields and rental rates, as well as on future market expectations. A total of 52 real estate professionals, nearly a third of RICS Hungary s membership, participated actively in the current Market Sentiment Survey. Of the respondents, 7 were full RICS members and more than 7 have over 10 years of professional experience. The completed surveys indicate that around 6 of respondents work for international companies. Respondents were asked to provide information on their industry and their personal specialty within their organization. Nearly 6 of respondents work for consultancy firms. However, developers and asset management professionals also weighed in heavily within the survey. The respondents fields of specialization were fairly diverse: valuation, investment, development and asset management were the best represented categories in the survey. Ratio of respondents own work specialism asset management development financing investment valuation other 2013 H H H1 Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey H1 2014

22 20 Definitions Market Yield: The current net annual income divided by the purchase price received by the Vendor in a transaction where the asset has been traded at Market Value as of today. Market Value is the estimated amount for which a property should exchange on a certain date; between a willing buyer and a willing seller; in an arm s length transaction; after proper marketing; when both parties had each acted knowledgeably, prudently and without compulsion. Market Headline Rent: The estimated amount for which a property, or part of a property should lease on appropriate lease terms between a willing landlord and a willing tenant; on a certain date; in an arm s length transaction; after proper marketing; when both parties had each acted knowledgeably, prudently and without compulsion. Category A : A building that either conforms to all the hard criteria and at least 6 of the soft criteria or certified by Breeam / LEED. Hard criteria: modern cable management, a modern air handling system, adequate provision of secure dedicated parking (at least parking ratio of 1/75 not applying to refurbishments and periphery sub-market), a high quality standard finish, 24-hour access and security. Soft criteria: high speed modern lifts, clear ceiling height of at least 2.70 m, prestige/quality reception area, flexible partitioning, high quality architectural design, services in the building / immediate vicinity, power-supply back-up, double-glazed windows / anti-glare glass, restaurant/canteen, quality finish to working areas. Budapest Research Forum (BRF): It was established in 2000 and currently include the following members: CB Richard Ellis, Colliers, Cushman & Wakefield, DTZ, Eston, GVA Robertson, Jones Lang LaSalle. The aim of BRF is to represent a regulated framework where the leading property advisors can discuss the problems related to the Budapest property market, share and analyse market information. H Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey

23 RICS the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors was created in 1868 in the United Kingdom. It received a royal charter in RICS members are known as chartered surveyors, and are recognised by the designation after their name FRICS (for Fellow of RICS) or MRICS (for Member of RICS). Today RICS is a global property professional body with 100,000 qualified members in over 100 countries. The key roles of RICS are to regulate and promote the profession, maintain the highest educational and professional standards, protect clients and consumers through a strict code of ethics and provide impartial advice, analysis and guidance Chartered surveyors help to sustain the use of land and unlock the long term value of property. They are key to efficient markets in land, property and the environment without which important world economies would not be able to function effectively. Anna Orcsik, Regional Manager RICS Central & Eastern Europe E: aorcsik@rics.org W: Portfolio.hu RICS ELTINGA Market Sentiment Survey H1 2014

24 Contributors Csanád Csűrös Portfolio.hu Chief Analyst Krisztián Hornok MRICS Reconcept Property Solutions Partner Áron Horváth ELTINGA Jaroslav Kopac MRICS Jones Lang LaSalle Kft. National Director Head of Valuation Hungary György Lindwurm MRICS DTZ Hungary Kft. Associate Director Investment Aliz McLean ELTINGA Edina Winkler MRICS DTZ Hungary Kft. Senior Surveyor Valuation, RICS Hungary Board Member