The resilience of the London property market Why London provides attractive opportunities for Commercial Property Investment

Transcription

1 The resilience of the London property market Why London provides attractive opportunities for Commercial Property Investment Anthony Epenetos The Lorenz Consultancy

2 The Lorenz Consultancy Commercial property consultancy based in Mayfair focused on all aspects of commercial property Agency investment, agency leasehold acquisition and disposal, rent reviews, lease renewals, break clauses, dilapidations, valuation and litigation

3 What we have seen Prime Rent: Prime rental levels in the West End for grade A office space: Sept 2007: 110 per sq ft Sept 2008: Lehman recession prime rents dropped to 80 per sq ft 23 Savile Row Sept 2009: 85 per sq ft 2010: 95 per sq ft 2011: 100 per sq ft 2012: numerous deals at 110 per sq ft or higher

4 Take up for Offices Central London

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6 Central London office rental guide

7 Tenant s incentives: rent free contributions In a weaker market rent free periods increase to incentivise tenants to take space In West End tenant incentives are the lowest from any London market: 2008/9 circa 2 months per year term certain 2011 circa 1 month per year term certain 2012 less than 1 month per year term certain

8 Lease terms year leases used to be the norm 2009: 3 5 year lease terms 2012: 10 year leases looming back again From an investment perspective a break option negatively affects investment value for Landlords 5 year break options can be mutual give Landlord flexibility too

9 Development decreases Development pipeline decreases during uncertain times Strong demand for offices creates lack of supply: 38 Hans Crescent in Knightsbridge let to one tenant on c.30,000 sq ft at 54 per sq ft since no other competing buildings on the market.

10 Example: 38 Hans Crescent, SW1 32,000 sq ft in total over 1 st 5 th floors Barclays had a lease until Nov 2019 Second hand grade A space Let to one occupier before full marketing campaign started Rent of per sq ft achieved

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12 Office supply Office to Residential conversions have taken 700,000 sq ft in the West End alone. Planning rules have been relaxed to allow residential conversions more easily Investors may buy a commercial property for investment and asset management value with residential conversion being the icing on the cake

13 Where is demand coming from? Demand from UK and overseas occupiers for London offices UK mature market funds and international investors for Commercial property 70% of investment from private and overseas investor Safe haven for secure investment and a business base for occupiers

14 Occupational costs Historically occupational costs for commercial premises have been higher Office occupancy costs to businesses of only 13% of total business costs only years ago office costs were 20 25% of business costs Rents are rising but office space is still relatively cheap

15 Leases unique to the UK year leases not uncommon Leases can be inside or outside the 1954 Act Rights to renewal at expiry Lease renewals subject to a market rent protect investment value Rent reviews every 5 years standard protect investment value Landlords do not have to offer renewals if they plan a substantial refurbishment or redevelopment of a property

16 Capital values A strong occupational market results in lower yields on investment values so capital values increase Investment transaction volumes decreased during the recession having the affect of increasing capital values since demand for commercial acquisitions remained high property seen as a safe investment UK investment market a relatively closed market lots of deals off market thus investors need to be properly advised

17 Investment market experience Most central London Commercial property investments on the market have multiple bidders. Achieved values going for above quoting terms we are seeing the market rising

18 Example 16 Bowling Green Lane, EC1 8,188 sq ft of offices quoting oieo 2.4m Under offer in a week at 20% above guide price

19 Landlord/Investor/Occupier Freehold investment acquisition Freehold investment disposal Landlord asset management lettings Tenant leasehold acquisition Landlord/Tenant rent review, lease renewal and dilapidations settlement