Life expectancy: how certain are we about future trends and what is driving them? Chris Shaw
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1 Life expectancy: how certain are we about future trends and what is driving them? Chris Shaw Office for National Statisticsti ti
2 Overview Latest t projections Past accuracy Measures of uncertainty Traditional variants Stochastic ti forecasts What is driving trends?
3 Period life expectancy at birth, UK Actual & 2006-based principal projections Projected (years) 90 Females 90 Period expectation of life at birth Males Year
4 Period life expectancy at age 65, UK Actual & 2006-based principal projections Projected Females 26 (years) riod expectatio on of life at Males Per Year
5 Expert Panel estimates of male period life expectancy at birth at Life expectan ncy (years) Respondent Average 67% Confidence Interval
6 Expert Panel estimates of female period life expectancy at birth at Life expe ectancy (yea ars) Respondent Average 67% Confidence Interval
7 NPP v Expert Panel: Key indicators at 2030 ONS 2006-based principal Expert panel average TFR Male period life expectancy at birth Female period life expectancy at birth Annual net migration +190, ,000
8 UK male period life expectancy at birth Latest ONS, Eurostat & UN assumptions Life expecta ancy (years) ONS 2006-based Eurostat EUROPOP UN 2006 Revision Year
9 UK female period life expectancy at birth Latest ONS, Eurostat & UN assumptions 88 Life expectan ncy (years) ONS 2006-based Eurostat EUROPOP 2008 UN Revision Year
10 Actual and projected male period life expectancy at birth, UK, Actual 1971-based Life expectancy at birth (year rs) based based 1985-based based based based 1998-based based Year based 2006-based
11 Mean absolute error: period life expectancy at birth,1971-based to 2004-based projections rs) te error (year Mean absolut Males Females Forecast duration (years ahead)
12 Observed mean absolute error for period life expectancy at birth for men in 14 European countries Years 3 MAE all countries MAE UK Forecast duration (yrs) Each unlabelled line represents one country. Data only shown where there are ten or more observations
13 Older v Newer projections: Average absolute error in male period life expectancy at birth years ahead 10 years ahead 15 years ahead Ye ears to to to to to to 1989 Projection base year
14 Actual and assumed overall average annual rates of mortality improvement England & Wales Males Females Per cent Past Future Past Future (actual) (assumed) (actual) (assumed) Last/next 24 years Last/next 44 years Last/next 74 years
15 Actual and projected male period life expectancy at birth, UK, Projected High life expectancy 95 Life expecta ancy (years) Principal Low life expectancy Males Year
16 Actual and projected female period life expectancy at birth, UK, Projected High life expectancy 95 Life expectan ncy (years) Females Principal Low life expectancy Year
17 Expert Panel estimates of male period life expectancy at birth at Life expectan ncy (years) Respondent Average 67% Confidence Interval
18 NPP v Expert Panel: Uncertainty at 2030 ONS assumptions (High variant low variant) Expert panel average (Width of 67% confidence interval) TFR Male period life expectancy at birth Female period life expectancy at birth Annual net migration 120, ,000
19 ONS Stochastic forecasting project Aim To develop a model that will enable the degree of uncertainty in UK national population projections to be specified Approach Express fertility, mortality and migration assumptions in terms of probability distributions Generate random values from these probability Generate random values from these probability distributions to produce predictive distributions for any projection result
20 Probability distributions How can we estimate future probability distributions? Three approaches: Analysis of accuracy of past projections Expert opinion Time series analysis No right answer subjective judgement
21 Comparative measures of uncertainty for five years ahead TFR (number of children) Male e0 (years) Female e0 (years) Net mig (000s) Experts: Standard deviation Past accuracy: RMSE
22 UK male period life expectancy at birth Probability bilit distribution ib ti 95 95% high 90 Estimates Projections 67% high Median Life expectancy (years) % low 95% low Year
23 Estimates of period life expectancy at birth in 2049/2050, UK males Median and 80% confidence intervals Life expectanc cy (years) UPE ONS VID
24 Estimates of period life expectancy at birth in 2049/2050, UK females Median and 80% confidence intervals Life expectanc cy (years) UPE ONS VID
25 Expert Group Questionnaire Given to our Expert Advisory Panel in 2007 Developed by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Vienna and adapted by ONS for use in UK Collected views on a large range of factors which might influence future fertility, mortality and migration Article will appear in Population Trends in December
26 Forces and arguments Force: Changes in bio-medical technology Arguments: Increased understanding of bio-medical ageing g processes will allow us to develop effective anti-ageing strategies. Breakthroughs in the understanding of carcinogenic processes will lead to substantial reductions in mortality from cancers. Innovative medication will make hitherto life threatening diseases containable. Improvements in surgery including transplants and implants will enhance longevity. Unintended adverse consequences of new bio-medical technologies will outweigh their benefit
27 Major forces shaping mortality % weighting Min Max Bio-medical technology Health care systems Behavioural changes New/resurgent diseases Environmental changes Population composition
28 Major forces shaping mortality UK Panel IIASA (18 world experts) Bio-medical technology Health care systems Behavioural changes New/resurgent diseases 9 7 Environmental changes 8 8 Population composition
29 Increased understanding of bio-medical ageing processes will allow us to develop effective anti-ageing g strategies. Validity of argument Very likely to be right More right than wrong Don't know / ambivalent More wrong than right Very likely to be wrong Number of respondents
30 Increased understanding of bio-medical ageing processes will allow us to develop effective anti-ageing strategies. Importance of argument A large upward influence on life expectancy A small upward influence on life expectancy Little or no influence on life expectancy A small downward influence on life expectancy A large downward influence on life expectancy Don't know Number of respondents
31 Smoking prevalence will continue to decline. Validity of argument Very likely to be right M ore right than wrong Do not know / am bivalent M ore wrong than right Very likely to be wrong Num ber of respondents
32 Smoking prevalence will continue to decline. Importance of argument A large upward influence on life expectancy A small upward influence on life expectancy Little or no influence on life expectancy A small downward influence on life expectancy A large downward influence on life expectancy D on't k now Number of respondents
33 Factors considered to be valid by the majority of the panel and considered to have the potential to impact on future levels. Factors that could have an upwards impact on life expectancy: Greater understanding of bio-medical ageing processes leading to the development of effective anti-ageing strategies. Breakthroughs in the understanding of carcinogenic processes leading to reduced mortality from cancer. Medical advances leading to previously life-threatening diseases becoming containable. Progress in preventive medicine. Better information about health. A continued decrease in smoking prevalence. Increasing mental and social activities iti at old age. Effective and easily affordable new technologies.
34 Factors considered to be valid by the majority of the panel and considered to have the potential to impact on future levels. Factors that could diminish or reverse increases in life expectancy: Increasing drug resistance to known infectious diseases. Negative e impact on health of increased stress levels. e Majority of immigration will be from countries with higher mortality than UK.
35 References 2006-based national projections, Chapter 7 (Mortality) Accuracy of past UK projections, Population Trends 128 Accuracy of past European projections, Population Trends 129 (Part 2) Results from Expert Panel questionnaire, Population Trends 134 (to be published in December 2008) asp?vlnk=6303
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