Life Expectancy and its Impact on Income Annuities
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1 Life Expectancy and its Impact on Income Annuities 2002 SEAC June Meeting Michael S. Taht, FCIA, FSA, MAAA June 14, 2002
2 People 2
3 People 35 Birth Rates per 1000 Population: Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 3 Hyattsville, MD March 1999
4 People 4
5 People 5
6 People 6
7 More Health News for Elderly Americans In the next 30 years, 1 out of 5 Americans will be over the age of 65 Elderly population will reach more than 68 million in 2050 Source: US Dept of Health and Human Services 7
8 People 8
9 People 9
10 Life Expectancy
11 Life Expectancy For most of the time humans have existed, life expectancy was about 18 years 11 Source: Life Expectancy in the Future: Robert B. Friedland
12 Life Expectancy In the Middle Ages, life expectancy was about 25 years 12 Source: Life Expectancy in the Future: Robert B. Friedland
13 Life Expectancy By the 1700 s, life expectancy was no more than 40 years 13 Source: Life Expectancy in the Future: Robert B. Friedland
14 Life Expectancy Life Expectancy at Birth by Decade Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 14 Hyattsville, MD March 1999
15 Life Expectancy Change in Life Expectancy by Decade Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 15 Hyattsville, MD March 1999
16 Life Expectancy Change in Life Expectancy by Decade Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 16 Hyattsville, MD March 1999
17 Life Expectancy Change in Life Expectancy by Decade Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 17 Hyattsville, MD March 1999
18 Life Expectancy Change in Life Expectancy by Decade Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 18 Hyattsville, MD March 1999
19 Life Expectancy Difference in Male and Female Life Expectancy by Decade Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 19 Hyattsville, MD March 1999
20 Life Expectancy by State (as of 1990) The Top Five: 1. Hawaii (78.2) 2. Minnesota (77.8) 3. Utah (77.7) 4. North Dakota (77.6) 5. Iowa (77.3) Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 20 Hyattsville, MD March 1999
21 Life Expectancy by State (as of 1990) The Bottom Five: 1. Louisiana (73.0) 2. Mississippi (73.0) 3. South Carolina (73.5) 4. Georgia (73.6) 5. Alabama (73.6) Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 21 Hyattsville, MD March 1999
22 Life Expectancy by Country (as of 2000) Highest male life expectancy: Sweden (78) Highest female life expectancy: Japan (85) Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 22 Hyattsville, MD March 1999
23 Life Expectancy by Country (as of 1992) United States male ranking: 17th United States female ranking: 15th Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 23 Hyattsville, MD March 1999
24 The Future of Life Expectancy
25 The Future of Life Expectancy Will life expectancy continue to increase as it has in the past, or will the rate of increase slow and eventually come to a stop? Is there a time limit on the human life span? 25
26 Searching for Methuselah Leonard Hayflick believes the human life span increased dramatically 100,000 years ago, but has remained at 120 years ever since. The Lee-Carter approach provides a life expectancy estimate of 86.1 years by 2065, more than twice the increase projected by the Social Security actuaries (82.0). If trends from continue into the future, life expectancy would reach 85 in 2182 and 100 in Source: Life Expectancy in the Future: Robert B. Friedland
27 The Future of Life Expectancy The 1995 death rate would have to decline by more than 50% at every age in order for life expectancy to reach 85 years in the U.S. It would have to decline by 85% in order to reach Source: Science Compass VOL. 291 February 2001
28 The Future of Life Expectancy The large mortality reductions of the 20th century may not be able to be repeated, because infectious and parasitic diseases are no longer the primary causes of death at younger ages. This means that much larger mortality reductions would be required at older ages for life expectancy to rise significantly. 28
29 The Future of Life Expectancy Categories that can have a positive impact on life expectancy: medical advances (ex. genetic testing) improved geriatric care economic conditions lifestyle changes (ex. smoking, diet, exercise) public health initiatives 29
30 The Future of Life Expectancy 30
31 The Future of Life Expectancy What impact will a cure for cancer or heart disease have? good news for life insurers bad news for annuity writers 31
32 The Future of Life Expectancy Categories that can have a negative impact on life expectancy: natural disasters epidemics 32
33 The Impact on Income Annuities
34 The Impact on Income Annuities Savings Rates by Country 20.0% 15.0% 15.5% 11.8% 11.5% 13.6% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 7.0% 1.2% 0.5% Canada France Germany Italy Japan U.K. U.S. 34 Source: North American Actuarial Journal VOL 5 January 2001
35 The Impact on Income Annuities Organized retirement systems fail to focus on increasing needs as retirees age 35
36 The Impact on Income Annuities $50,000 U.S. Median Income by Gender $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $20,500 $37,600 $14,400 $31,200 $10,100 $17,800 $ Female Male 36 Source: North American Actuarial Journal VOL 5 January 2001
37 The Impact on Income Annuities Present Value of Long-Term Medical Care $200,000 $160,000 $166,000 $120,000 $104,000 $80,000 $62,000 $40,000 $0 Acute Care Long-Term Care Total 37 Source: North American Actuarial Journal VOL 5 January 2001
38 How long will YOU live? 38
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