HOW TO TACKLE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE? PAST AND FUTURE CHALLENGES
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1 HOW TO TACKLE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE? PAST AND FUTURE CHALLENGES Conference Insurance Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee (ISSDC) Brussels, 14 June 2012 Josef Wöss (AK-Wien)
2 TOPICS Demographic change - Age groups 0-14 / / Working age (20-64) Dependency Ratio Calculator How to cope with demographic change?
3 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ( ) EU-27 Age groups 0-14 / / 65+ In Mio bis unter bis unter 65 ab Source: Eurostat (europop 2010); own calculations
4 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ( ) GERMANY Age groups 0-14 / / 65+ In Mio bis unter bis unter 65 ab Source: Eurostat (europop 2010); own calculations
5 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ( ) FRANCE Age groups 0-14 / / 65+ In Mio bis unter bis unter 65 ab Source: Eurostat (europop 2010); own calculations
6 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ( ) UNITED KINGDOM Age groups 0-14 / / 65+ In Mio bis unter bis unter 65 ab Source: Eurostat (europop 2010); own calculations
7 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ( ) POLAND Age groups 0-14 / / 65+ In Mio bis unter bis unter 65 ab Source: Eurostat (europop 2010); own calculations
8 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ( ) AUSTRIA Age groups 0-14 / / 65+ In Mio bis unter bis unter 65 ab Source: Eurostat (europop 2010); own calculations
9 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ( ) EU-27 Working age / 5 year brackets (20 64) mio Source: Eurostat (europop 2010)
10 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ( ) GERMANY Working age / 5 year brackets (20 64) mio Source: Eurostat (europop 2010)
11 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ( ) FRANCE Working age / 5 year brackets (20 64) mio Source: Eurostat (europop 2010)
12 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ( ) UNITED KINGDOM Working age / 5 year brackets (20 64) 5.5 mio Source: Eurostat (europop 2010)
13 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ( ) POLAND Working age / 5 year brackets (20 64) mio Source: Eurostat (europop 2010)
14 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ( ) AUSTRIA Working age / 5 year brackets (20 64) mio Source: Eurostat (europop 2010)
15 POPULATION AGEING - MEDIAN AGE ( ) D FR UK PL AT Source: Eurostat, Statistics in Focus 23/2011
16 Dependency Ratio Calculator AGE STRUCTURE (EU-27) 2010 demographic dependency ratio: 26 % 2050 demographic dependency ratio: 50 % d_dr = demographic dependency ratio: population 65+ relative to Source: AK-Wien / Dependency Ratio Calculator (data: europop 2010)
17 Dependency Ratio Calculator DEMOGRAPHIC vs. ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY 2010 (EU-27) 2010 demographic dependency ratio: 26% 2010 demographic dependency ratio: 26% economic dependency ratio: 65 % employment rate (20-64): 68.6 % d_dr = demographic dependency ratio: population 65+ relative to e_dr = economic dependency ratio: pensioners (old-age, early retirement, disability) and unemployed relative to people in employment people in employment pensioners and unemployed neutral - housewives/husbands etc. (right picture) Source: AK-Wien, Dependency Ratio Calculator (database: Eurostat europop 2010 / Labour Force Survey 2012; EU-Commission Ageing Report 2012; own calculations)
18 Dependency Ratio Calculator ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY STANDARD-SCENARIO (EU-27) 2010 demographic dependency ratio: 26% economic dependency ratio: 65 % employment rate (20-64): 68.6 % Standard-Scenario demographic dependency ratio: 50% economic dependency ratio: 80 % employment rate (20-64): 73.6 % d_dr = demographic dependency ratio: population 65+ relative to e_dr = economic dependency ratio: pensioners (old-age, early retirement, disability) and unemployed relative to people in employment people in employment pensioners and unemployed neutral - housewives/husbands etc. Source: AK-Wien, Dependency Ratio Calculator (database: Eurostat europop 2010 / Labour Force Survey 2012; EU-Commission Ageing Report 2012; own calculations)
19 Dependency Ratio Calculator ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY EU-2020plus-SCENARIO (EU-27) 2010 demographic dependency ratio: 26% economic dependency ratio: 65 % employment rate (20-64): 68.6 % EU-2020plus-Scenario demographic dependency ratio: 50% economic Dependency Ratio: 74 % employment rate (20-64) : 80 % d_dr = demographic dependency ratio: population 65+ relative to e_dr = economic dependency ratio: pensioners (old-age, early retirement, disability) and unemployed relative to people in employment people in employment pensioners and unemployed neutral - housewives/husbands etc. Source: AK-Wien, Dependency Ratio Calculator (database: Eurostat europop 2010 / Labour Force Survey 2012; EU-Commission Ageing Report 2012; own calculations)
20 EU-COMMISSION WHITE PAPER ON PENSIONS (2012) ANALYSIS The ageing challenge is often illustrated by the doubling of the old age dependency ratio Yet the real issue is the economic dependency ratio, defined as the unemployed and pensioners as a percentage of the employed. Many countries have considerable scope for improving the future adequacy and sustainability of their pension systems by raising employment rates, and this not just in the higher age groups RECOMMENDATIONS Unfortunately, the key recommendations of the White Paper do not reflect this analysis - mobilizing existing employment potential in all age groups is not among the key recommendations
21 DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGE (Fast) Increasing no. of people aged 65+ Declining no. of people of working age (in most countries) Ageing workforce Low birth rates Growing life expenctancy
22 LABOUR MARKET CHALLENGES Under-employment, unemployment, inactivity EU-27: 215 mio in employment (incl mini-jobs) / 336 mio of working age (Gender) Inequalities EU-27: participation rate 64.5 % (women) and 77.7 % (men) Changing needs (new technologies, globalisation, etc) Increasing mental health problems (increasing share among disability) Early exit from the labour market
23 HOW TO COPE WITH AN AGEING WORKFORCE? Education / Training / Re-Training Reconciliation of employment and family life (improving labour market integration of parents, esp mothers) Health protection / good working conditions Adequate jobs for older workers (adaptation of workplaces and work organisation) Social Dialogue
24 HOW TO COPE WITH DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE? Mobilizing existing employment potential - in all age groups - with quality jobs is the most effective strategy with which countries / companies can prepare for population ageing
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