3 Quality of Transport Infrastructure SCANDRIA Investment Strategy. 3.2 Integrated Concept on Optimising Rail Traffic in the Corridor

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1 Elimination of infrastructure bottlenecks in the corridor Berlin Copenhagen/Malmö Baltic Sea Region Project #026 Scandinavian-Adriatic Corridor for Growth and Innovation Work Package Action Responsible Partner Author 3 Quality of Transport Infrastructure SCANDRIA Investment Strategy 3.2 Integrated Concept on Optimising Rail Traffic in the Corridor Joint Spatial Planning Department of Berlin and Brandenburg ETC Transport Consultants GmbH Version 3 Date Status Final Document Approval Chronology Document Revision / Approval Version Date Status 1 Date Status Draft Finally approved Final draft Finally approved Final 1 Document status: draft, revised draft, final draft... 2 Revision status: approved, revision required, finally approved Version 2, » 1 32

2 Brief Description of the output The realisation of the fixed link over the Fehmarnbelt and the modernisation of the hinterland connections will cut travel times between Berlin and Copenhagen significantly Already in the basic solution via Hamburg direct trains can connect Berlin and Copenhagen in 4 hrs 20 minutes. Currently discussed optional investments in Germany (electrification of Büchen Lübeck and Bad Kleinen Lübeck lines) allowing an approx. 60 km shorter route. These alternative routes could cut travel times by 20 and 30 minutes at a price of bypassing Hamburg. Output Schedule Source Deadline / Milestone Planned according to Application Form X Expected according to revised workplan X Summary of Methodological Approach To allow an adequate utilisation of the fixed Fehmarnbelt link the planned hinterland connection in Germany should be completed by additional infrastructure measures. The most important measure is an increase of capacity in the Hamburg node and Hamburg Lübeck line by separating suburban of other trains between Hamburg and Ahrensburg (planned S4 line). In addition two alternative routes (Lüneburg Büchen Lübeck and Ludwigslust Schwerin Lübeck) could both increase capacity for freight trains and cut travel times for direct passenger trains Berlin Copenhagen by bypassing Hamburg. To shift the predominant majority from air to rail, travel time by rail has to be cut to approx 3 hrs 3hrs 30 min. A light high-speed upgrading ( km/h) could reduce travel times to 3 hrs 30 min between Berlin and Copenhagen. The corresponding alignments between Hamburg and Fehmarn should be investigated during the following planning stages for an optional later upgrading. Version 2, » 2 32

3 Index 1 Introduction Objective of the study Study area, main transport corridors Time horizon Present situation Railway infrastructure Berlin - Baltic Sea coast Copenhagen - Malmö - Stockholm Copenhagen - Gothenburg - Oslo Transport offer Railway transport Air transport Ferry services Competitiveness of rail transport Transport demand Planned infrastructure improvements Fehmarnbelt crossing The fixed link Hinterland connection in Germany Hinterland connection in Denmark Further improvements in Germany Infrastructure improvements in Sweden and Norway Identification of bottlenecks and recommendations Infrastructure bottlenecks Operational problems Recommendations Additional investments in railway infrastructure Organisational and operational measures Transport offer Berlin Copenhagen Products in railway passenger traffic Basic solution Berlin - Hamburg - Copenhagen Berlin - Büchen - Lübeck - Copenhagen Berlin - Schwerin - Copenhagen Conclusions and recommendations...32 Version 2, » 3 32

4 List of figures Figure 1 Main transport corridors between Berlin and Scandinavia... 6 Figure 2 Main corridor Hamburg-Copenhagen over the Fehmarnbelt Figure 3 Alignment options in the Lübeck - Puttgarden section Figure 4 Upgrading of Hamburg - Lübeck line section (additional tracks for suburban traffic) Figure 5 Fehmarnbelt Corridor Overview of planned railway infrastructure by Femern A/S Figure 6 Modernisation of Schwerin / Bad Kleinen Lübeck railway line Figure 7 Possible traffic demand between Hamburg and Copenhagen (trains per day) Figure 8 Traffic load in the Lübeck railway node 2015 (trains per day) Figure 9 Berlin Hamburg Copenhagen route Figure 10 Planned long distance offer in Northern Germany by Figure 11 Berlin Büchen Lübeck Copenhagen route Figure 12 Berlin Schwerin Copenhagen route List of tables Table 1 Travel times for rail/ferry connections Table 2 Comparison of travel times (hrs) between Berlin and Copenhagen Table 3 Trips between Denmark/Scandinavia and the Continent Table 4 Fehmarnbelt traffic Table 5 Traffic forecast used in the Financial Analysis for the Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link Table 6 Traffic forecast used in the Financial Analysis for the Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link Table 7 Air passenger traffic Berlin Scandinavia Table 8 Sections and possible capacity constraints Table 9 General estimate of railway line capacity (trains per day, both directions) Table 10 Travel times Berlin Hamburg Copenhagen Table 11 Advantages/disadvantages of Berlin Hamburg Copenhagen route Table 12 Travel times Berlin Hamburg Copenhagen Table 13 Advantages/disadvantages of Berlin Büchen Lübeck Copenhagen route Table 14 Travel times Berlin Schwerin Lübeck Copenhagen Table 15 Advantages/disadvantages of Berlin Schwerin Lübeck Copenhagen route Table 16 Overview of possible travel times between Berlin and Copenhagen Version 2, » 4 32

5 1 Introduction 1.1 Objective of the study The role of long distance railway passenger traffic between Berlin and Eastern Germany and Scandinavia lost more and more of its importance over the last two decades. Transport offers had been reduced considerably. There are several reasons for these developments. One of the reasons was the fast growing offer of low-cost air connections. Another influencing fact is the preferential orientation of ferry operators to clients in the road-bound traffic, especially after the privatisation of ferry services formerly belonging to state-owned railway operators. Presently there are ongoing various activities in the field of railway infrastructure between Berlin and Scandinavia, which may facilitate the revitalisation of rail passenger traffic in this corridor. One of these measures is the ongoing modernisation of the Berlin Rostock railway line. Modernisation is also prepared for the railway lines Berlin Stralsund and Berlin Szczecin although financing and realisation horizon are missing so far. The upgrading of these three railway lines in North-eastern Germany will lead to shorter travel times for combined railway-ferry traffic via ports Rostock, Sassnitz and Świnoujście. The optimisation of these combined travels were parts of a workshop held in Świnoujście on October 26 th 2011 and is documented separately (SCANDRIA output "Optimising Timetables ship and Rail"). The most significant influence on passenger traffic between Berlin and Scandinavia will have the planned fixed crossing of the Fehmarnbelt, agreed between Denmark and Germany in 2008 and to be opened in 2020, cutting travel times significantly. Within this planning process for a fixed link between Puttgarden and Rødby, which most probably will be a tunnel, extensive measures are already agreed for the upgrading of the hinterland connections in both countries are agreed. These measures include line electrification both in Germany and Denmark, and also the upgrading of the line between Bad Schwartau and Puttgarden to a double-track line, which should be realised according to present planning within seven years after the opening of the fixed link. In Denmark the line section between Rødbyhavn and Vordingborg will be upgraded to a double-track line. Furthermore a new railway line is planned from Copenhagen via Køge to Ringsted in order to increase railway network capacity. One challenging question is how to make passenger railway traffic between Berlin and Scandinavia competitive compared to other transport modes in the period before the opening of the fixed link. Beside freight traffic transport offer between Hamburg and Copenhagen or even regional transport dominate the operational planning for the fixed Fehmarnbelt and its hinterland connections. By now German potentials beyond Hamburg were considered only marginally although there is significant air traffic between Berlin and Scandinavia today. There are two major factors influencing the future offer in railway passenger services from Berlin to Scandinavia. One is the potential traffic demand, but almost more important is the railway infrastructure capacity. On the German side of the Fehmarn corridor this mainly refers to the railway nodes of Lübeck and Hamburg, but also to the main lines to and from Hamburg. Thus electrification plays a decisive role for capacity increase and will be analysed within this study. But also other, less costextensive infrastructure modernisation and upgrading measures can lead to a significant increase in line capacity. So another aspect of this study is to analyse, how the Fehmarnbelt crossing can facilitate time-critical railway traffic from Berlin and the Eastern part of Germany to Scandinavia, in connection with small-scale investments in the railway infrastructure e.g. by upgrading of the existing routes via Büchen or Schwerin.. Version 2, » 5 32

6 1.2 Study area, main transport corridors The study area comprises the major railway connections between Berlin and the Eastern part of Germany and Scandinavia, i.e. corridors between Berlin and the following major Scandinavian metropolitan areas Copenhagen / Malmö Stockholm Gothenburg Oslo Figure 1 Main transport corridors between Berlin and Scandinavia The focus of the investigation is on the various rail links in Germany and their potential role in increasing capacity and attractiveness of railway routes in these corridors. Version 2, » 6 32

7 1.3 Time horizon Within the study railway infrastructure developments and rail passenger transport offers are analysed within the following time horizons: 2011 Status quo 2015 Completion of modernisation of railway corridor Berlin - Rostock Start of operation of the new fixed Fehmarnbelt link Completion of all measures for modernisation and upgrading of railway infrastructure 3 The focal point is the start of operation of the new fixed Fehmarn Belt link. The upgrading of the Berlin - Rostock corridor is seen as an important intermediate measure which gives the opportunity to considerably improve transport offer between Berlin and Scandinavia by short-term measures already before the opening of the new Fehmarnbelt link. This also refers to short-term considerations for combined railway/ferry passenger connections to Scandinavia through Sassnitz and Swinoujscie. 2 Present situation Within this chapter the present situation with regard to infrastructure, transport offers for passenger traffic as well as to transport demand is analysed. The focus lies on railway passenger traffic, but competing transport modes like air transport and individual car traffic are also taken into consideration. The results of this chapter serve as a basis for the definition of an improved future transport offer in railway passenger traffic, taking into consideration developments in transport demand and improvements of railway infrastructure. 2.1 Railway infrastructure Berlin - Baltic Sea coast Presently there are the following main railway routes from Berlin in northern direction to Scandinavia indicated below. Information on infrastructure is given for the major parameters for the present situation. Berlin - Hamburg - Copenhagen There is a double-track line from Berlin to Hamburg with a length of 284 km. The line is electrified with a design speed of 230 km for passenger trains. From Hamburg to Lübeck there is a double-track, electrified line with a design speed for passenger trains of 160 km/h. There is a single-track line from Lübeck to Puttgarden. The line is not electrified and the maximum speed for passenger trains is 100 km/h to partly 140 km/h. Puttgarden and Rødby are linked by a railway ferry (compare also below). The 186 km railway line from Rødby to Copenhagen is partly double-track (Ringsted - Copenhagen), between Ringsted and Copenhagen the line is electrified, maximum speed for passenger trains varies from 120 km/h to 160 km/h (Ringsted-Copenhagen) 1 Facilitating combined travels (rail/bus ferry bus/rail) via Rostock - Gedser 2 German hinterland connection (Lübeck Puttgarden) eletrificated and upgraded (160 km/h), mainly single track 3 Double track Lübeck Puttgarden Version 2, » 7 32

8 2.1.2 Copenhagen - Malmö - Stockholm The about 660 km long railway line from Copenhagen to Stockholm is a double-track, electrified line with maximum speed for passenger trains of 200 km/h between Malmö and Stockholm and 180 km/h from Copenhagen to Malmö Copenhagen - Gothenburg - Oslo The line sections in this corridor have the following technical parameters: Copenhagen - Malmö: 45 km, double-track, electrified, V max = 180 km/h Malmö - Gothenburg: 306 km, double track, electrified, V max = 200 km/h Gothenburg - Oslo: 357 km, of which 205 km single track, electrified, V max = km/h in Norway and km/h in Sweden 2.2 Transport offer The following chapter includes information on transport offer for railway and air passenger traffic in the above mentioned corridors. It also gives some basic information on ferry services from Germany to Scandinavia Railway transport When analysing railway passenger services between Berlin and the above mentioned destinations in Scandinavia, the connections from Berlin to Copenhagen/Malmö area are of main interest, as they offer a great variety of routes and services, including combined rail/ferry connections. These different options within Germany also offer the most important potential for short and medium term improvements of transport services in railway passenger traffic. Railway connections between Copenhagen/Malmö area and Stockholm and Gothenburg/Oslo follow clearly defined corridors with no (significant) alternatives. Future improvements of services (e.g. travel times) depend almost exclusively on upgrading of infrastructure in these corridors Berlin - Copenhagen/Malmö There is one direct train connection from Berlin to Copenhagen. The InterCity Express (ICE) operated by DB AG, runs from Berlin via Hamburg and Lübeck to Puttgarden, from Puttgarden to Rödby by ferry, and further via Nykoebing to Copenhagen. Travel time is 6hrs 44min. Four more ICE trains per day and direction are operated from Copenhagen to Hamburg, with the possibility to change to ICE trains from Hamburg to Berlin. Travel time from Hamburg to Copenhagen is 4hrs 42min. Between Hamburg and Berlin DB AG operates 16 ICE trains per day and direction, 2 EC trains and 2 InterCity trains. Travel time for ICE trains is 1hr 40min, for EC trains 2hrs 05min. An additional direct train between Berlin and Malmö via Sassnitz/Trelleborg "Berlin Night Express" is operated by GVG/SJ. The night train service runs three times per week between May and November, with a daily service in the summer period. Since December 2012 DB AG operates a new City-Night- Line Copenhagen Berlin Prague, running daily. Railway lines Berlin Hamburg and Hamburg Lübeck are intensively used by freight trains, e.g. as hinterland connections of Hamburg and Lübeck ports. Especially on the Berlin Hamburg lines the mixed use by high speed, regional and freight trains with differing speed levels lead to capacity restrictions. ICE and IC/EC trains are mainly operated bundled and not in a 30 minutes interval. Currently additional siding tracks are constructed to reduce operation instability. In the long run upgrading of Berlin Stendal (3./4. track) and Stendal Uelzen (2. track) lines and shifting freight trains on this corridor will improve the capacity between Berlin and Hamburg including the possibility to introduce a 30 minutes interval between both biggest cities in Germany (comp. 3.2). Version 2, » 8 32

9 Copenhagen/Malmö - Stockholm Between Copenhagen/Malmö and Stockholm direct long-distance high speed trains (X2000) are operated by SJ. There run 6 trains per direction per day between Copenhagen and Stockholm, travel time I 5 hrs 15 min. Another 5 train pairs are operated between Stockholm and Malmö (with convenient train connections to/from Copenhagen). Between Stockholm and Malmö also night trains are operated daily Copenhagen/Malmö - Gothenburg/Oslo Presently there is no direct train connection between Oslo and Copenhagen/Malmö. NSB operates 4 InterCity trains per direction per day between Oslo and Gothenburg. Travel time from Oslo to Gothenburg is 4 about hrs. In Gothenburg there are several possibilities to change to X2000 services or regional trains to Copenhagen. SJ operates 3 pairs of X2000 trains per day between Gothenburg and Copenhagen. Travel time of X2000 trains from Gothenburg to Copenhagen is about 3 hrs. Additionally about 20 regional trains per direction and day are operated between Malmö and Gothenburg Air transport Below an overview of direct flights from Berlin to the major destinations in Scandinavia are given: Berlin - Copenhagen SAS in cooperation with Lufthansa offer 2-3 flights per day per direction from Berlin-Tegel. Flight time is app. 1 hour. There are 3-4 flights per day per direction from Berlin-Tegel operated by AirBerlin. EasyJet offers two flights per day from Berlin-Schönefeld. There is one flight operated by Norwegian on three days of the week. Berlin - Stockholm There are 1-2 direct flights per day per direction operated by SAS in cooperation with Lufthansa from Berlin-Tegel to Stockholm. Flight time 1hrs 35min. GermanWings offers two flights per day from Berlin- Schönefeld to Stockholm. AirBerlin operates one flight from Berlin-Tegel and RyanAir has one flight from Berlin-Schönefeld to Stockholm. Berlin - Oslo/Gothenburg AirBerlin offers two flights per day and direction from Berlin-Tegel to Oslo and to Gothenburg. Flight time to Oslo is 1hrs35min, to Gothenburg 1hr. Between Berlin and Oslo additional two flights per day are offered by Norwegian Ferry services The privatisation of ferry services or new ferry operators entering the market lead to a preferential orientation to clients in the road-bound traffic sector. Both infrastructure and services were oriented and adjusted to this target group. Potentials for the combined rail-to-ship passenger traffic across the Baltic Sea remain unused. There was a significant decline in combined rail-ferry offers for passengers since The former passenger rail ferry services from Rostock-Warnemünde to Gedser (connecting Berlin and Copenhagen) and from Sassnitz to Trelleborg (connection to Malmö) are no longer operated. Version 2, » 9 32

10 There is almost no cooperation between ferry operators and railway undertakings offering passenger services. After shifting the ferry terminal from Rostock-Warnemünde to Rostock-Überseehafen the ferry service to Gedser became unattractive for passengers. Also the high potentials of the two ferry ports in Świnoujście and Sassnitz-Mukran with their excellent geographic locations and existing infrastructure conditions remain almost unused for attractive combined rail-ferry passenger services connecting Berlin and Scandinavia. Presently only two ferry lines (Puttgarden - Rødby and Sassnitz - Trelleborg) offer services for passenger trains. More details on the ferry services operated in the corridor are given below: Puttgarden - Rødby The ferries on the Puttgarden - Rödby line are operated by Scandlines. There are 45 departures per direction per day. Travel time is 45 minutes. The ferry connection offers services for passengers, cars, busses and trains. Sassnitz - Trelleborg The line is operated by Scandlines. There are 8 departures per day. Travel time is 240 minutes. Over this connection a seasonal night train is operated by a private railway company between Berlin and Malmö. There are three departures per week per direction, in the summer season a daily service is offered. From Trelleborg to Malmö trains are operated by SJ. Rostock - Trelleborg The line is operated by Scandlines. There are 6 departures per day, travel time is about 360 minutes. Rostock - Gedser Ferry services are operated by Scandlines. There are 18 departures per day. Travel time is 105 minutes. There is a bus connection from Gedser to Nykobing. Świnoujście - Ystad Polferries and Unity Line offer ferry services on this line. There are 4 departures per day. The travel time is between 360 and 460 minutes. Świnoujście - Trelleborg The service with 4-6 departures per day is operated by Unity Line. Travel time is about 420 to 480 minutes. 2.3 Competitiveness of rail transport Besides price travel time is the major competition factors when comparing different modes of passenger transport. Which factor is the more important depends on the category of passengers. For tourists generally travel time is not the decisive factor. Reasonable prices are much more important, and for many tourists it is important that the journey itself is part of vacation. For this category of passengers combined rail/ferry routes represent an interesting alternative to air travel or direct and more expensive railway connections. Due to the relatively low average speed of the ferry connections (compare travel times above) total travel time of rail/ferry journeys is much higher than for direct train connections as given below. Also railway journeys from Berlin to Stockholm, Gothenburg or Oslo due to extensive travel time might be of interest to this category of passengers only. Version 2, » 10 32

11 Below travel times for different connections from German to Scandinavian destinations are given. Route Berlin - Gothenburg (via Malmö) Hamburg - Gothenburg (via Copenhagen) Berlin - Stockholm (via Sassnitz) Hamburg - Stockholm (via Copenhagen) Travel time 13 hrs 8 hrs 14 hrs 10 hrs Table 1 Travel times for rail/ferry connections 4 But competitiveness of rail/ferry connections depends not only on the travel time or price level. A lot of organisational improvements are necessary to make such connections more attractive (compare chapter 4.2 below)- In the following competitiveness of direct train connections between Berlin and Copenhagen is analysed. Below travel times for private car, air and railway traffic between Copenhagen and Berlin and Copenhagen and Hamburg are compared. As can be seen from table 2 below train services are competitive compared to private car traffic already today. But to be competitive compared to air traffic, travel times by rail are clearly too long. Table 2 - Comparison of travel times (hrs) between Berlin and Copenhagen Car Air Train Copenhagen - Berlin 6:00 to 6:30 3:00 6:45 Copenhagen - Hamburg 4:30 to 5:00 3:00 4:40 Table 2 Comparison of travel times (hrs) between Berlin and Copenhagen 5 In the Copenhagen - Stockholm corridor railway passenger services (with an average speed of km/h) are faster than car travel (average speed 90 km/h). Railway traffic can also be competitive to air travel under certain circumstances, for example for private or business trips with a longer stay at the destination town (compare also "Railway corridor performance between Scandinavia and Northern Germany" draft report by KTH). Between Copenhagen and Oslo train traffic with an average speed of km/h is competitive neither to car (average speed km/h) nor air traffic. (Source: KTH). 4 Source: 5 Figures for car and air traffic are taken from the draft report on WP 5.21 "Basic description of corridor functionality" by WSP. Travel times for cars are given for the fastest route (via Puttgarden/Rødby). Travel times for air traffic include the trips to and from the airports and time for check-in. Version 2, » 11 32

12 2.4 Transport demand One of the major documents regarding future traffic flows in the study area and especially through the Fehmarnbelt corridor is the "Fehmarnbelt Forecast 2002, Final Report". This study and a "Reference Case Report" were elaborated in 2002 and 2003 by a consortium consisting of Carl Bro A/S, BVU and Intraplan for the Fehmarnbelt Traffic Consortium A/S (FTC). The studies were commissioned by the Danish and German Ministries of Transport. These reports served as main basis for the Financial Analysis produced by FTC in The following table taken from the 2003 report gives a general overview of passenger flows between Denmark/Scandinavia and the continent: Transport mode Modal Split Passengers/year % Base Year 2001 Rail 854 3,6% Car ,5% Bus ,4% Air ,4% Walk-on ,1% Total ,0% Reference Case A 2015 Rail ,4% Car ,1% Bus ,6% Air ,0% Walk-on ,9% Total ,0% Base Case A, 2015 Rail ,4% Car ,2% Bus ,4% Air ,7% Walk-on ,3% Total ,0% Table 3 Trips between Denmark/Scandinavia and the Continent 6 The table contains figures for trips by mode for the base year 2001, a reference case 2015 (without the Fixed Link) and a base case 2015 (with the Fixed Link). As can be seen from the table above, railway transport has the lowest share in the total traffic, with a slight increase from 3.6 % in 2001 to 4.4 % in the base case Source: Carl Bro A/S, BVU and Intraplan, Reference Case Report, 2003 Version 2, » 12 32

13 The picture looks slightly different for the Fehmarnbelt corridor, as shown in the table below. Here railway traffic has a higher share in total passenger transport in the corridor. But more important, railway passenger traffic will more than double in the base case 2015 compared to the reference case. Base Year 2001 Reference Case, 2015 Base Case A, 2015 Difference between Base Case A and Reference Case A, 2015 Passengers/year abs. % abs. % abs. % abs. % Rail passengers ,5% ,4% ,3% ,6% Car passengers ,6% ,4% ,7% ,0% Bus passengers ,6% ,8% ,0% ,5% Walk-on pass ,3% ,4% 0 0,0% % Passengers/year % ,0% % % Passengers/day Cars/day ,6% Buses/day ,2% Table 4 Fehmarnbelt traffic 7 The share of rail transport in total traffic will increase to 15.3 % in the base case A in 2015 with a total of 1.5 million passenger trips per year. The Fehmarnbelt Traffic Consortium (FTC) adjusted these forecasts to the new opening year 2020, using a rather conservative approach. The figures in the table below were used in the Financial Analysis Vehicles per day Cars 4,567 6,800 Buses Trucks 861 1,100 Total 5,505 8,000 Rail traffic per day 2015*** Passengers 3,800 Freight cars 1,300 Table 5 Traffic forecast used in the Financial Analysis for the Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link 8 An average annual growth in ferry traffic of 2.7 % is used for the years till the opening of the Fixed Link. For the 25 years after the opening an annual growth rate of 1.7 % is assumed. Deutsche Bahn AG uses the following, considerably higher daily numbers of trains on the Fehmarnbelt link in 2025: Freight traffic 75 trains per day and direction Regional passenger traffic 19 trains per day and direction Long-distance passenger traffic 11 trains per day and direction 7 Source: Fehmarnbelt Traffic Consortium (FTC) 8 Source: Carl Bro A/S, BVU and Intraplan, Reference Case Report, 2003 Version 2, » 13 32

14 The 19 train pairs per day in regional passenger traffic correspond to the number of daily trains operated presently between Lübeck and Neustadt. With regard to long-distance traffic no decisions had been made regarding intermediate stops. The 75 freight trains per day and direction are well above the assumptions of the Danish side (48 trains per day and direction). Base for the German hinterland planning is the German Federal Programme for Transport Infrastructure Improvements (Bundesverkehrswegeplan - BVWP). In the current programme the following passenger flows are assumed for 2020 on selected relations: Passengers per year Passengers per day Berlin - Hamburg Berlin - Rostock Berlin-Angermünde-Stralsund Berlin - Szczecin Table 6 Traffic forecast used in the Financial Analysis for the Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link 9 Unfortunately, besides the above mentioned figures for passenger trips between Scandinavia and the Continent and passengers in the Fehmarnbelt corridor, there are no data available for more detailed origin/destination relations, e.g. Berlin - Copenhagen, Hamburg - Copenhagen. The number of air passengers between major airports in the study area may serve as another indication for origin/destination relations. For this purpose average daily number of passengers has been calculated for the relations below. The figures are based on data for air traffic in September 2011 published by the German Federal Statistical Office (Statistisches Bundesamt). Route Passengers/day (both directions together) Berlin-Schönefeld - Copenhagen 450 Berlin-Tegel - Copenhagen 950 Berlin - Copenhagen Berlin-Schönefeld - Stockholm 350 Berlin-Tegel - Stockholm 800 Berlin - Stockholm Berlin-Tegel - Gothenburg 360 Berlin-Schönefeld - Oslo 520 Berlin-Tegel - Oslo 330 Berlin Oslo Table 7 Air passenger traffic Berlin Scandinavia 10 9 Source: BVU, ITP: Überprüfung des Bedarfsplans für die Bundesschienenwege, Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, 2010 Version 2, » 14 32

15 3 Planned infrastructure improvements This chapter focuses on the infrastructure aspects of the planned Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link and its hinterland connections in Germany and Denmark. But it also deals with further modernisation measures in the railway network, especially as far as short and medium term measures before the opening of the fixed link are concerned. 3.1 Fehmarnbelt crossing The transport ministers of Germany and Denmark signed a Treaty on the construction of the Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link in September The Treaty was ratified by both countries in The countries agreed that Denmark alone is responsible for financing the link between Puttgarden and Rødbyhavn. Germany is responsible for financing of the upgrading of the German hinterland connection. The Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link is a priority project under the EU TEN-T (Trans-European Transport Network) programme. The Danish company Femern A/S is responsible for designing and planning of the fixed link. Figure 2 Main corridor Hamburg-Copenhagen over the Fehmarnbelt Version 2, » 15 32

16 3.1.1 The fixed link A fixed and direct link will cross the 19 km wide Fehmarnbelt between Puttgarden and Rødbyhavn. It is stipulated in the Treaty between Denmark and Germany that the fixed link will consist of a doubletrack railway line and a four-lane motorway. There is no final decision yet whether the fixed link will be a bridge or a tunnel. Femern A/S recommends an immersed tunnel. This recommendation has been confirmed by the Danish Ministry of Transport. A final decision will be taken within the approval procedures in Germany and Denmark. Most likely the fixed link will be built as an immersed tunnel. According to all preliminary investigations and planning this proves to be the best solution with regard to traffic, safety and environment. The approval process of the project is expected to be finalised by The construction of the Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link is planned to take place from 2014 till 2020, with a prospective opening by end of The investment costs for an immersed tunnel are estimated at app. 5.5 billion EUR. The double-track railway line will be electrified with a maximum speed for passenger trains of 200 km/h. The travel time for crossing the Fehmarnbelt from Puttgarden to Rödbyhavn will decrease from presently 45 minutes by ferry (without loading and unloading) to less than 10 minutes by train in the future Hinterland connection in Germany The main part of the German hinterland railway connection is the 89 km long line between Lübeck and Puttgarden. Presently this is a single-track, non-electrified line. According to the Treaty on the Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link this line is to be electrified till the opening of the fixed link and later to be equipped completely with a second track. The German Federal Programme for Transport Infrastructure Improvements (Bundesverkehrswegeplan) includes the following modernisation measures for the Lübeck - Puttgarden line: Upgrading to double-track line between Bad Schwartau and Puttgarden (except the Fehmarnsund bridge, which will remain single-track) Electrification of the line between Schwartau and Puttgarden Increase of line speed to 160 km/h for passenger trains The planned investment costs amount to 817 million EUR. According to the time schedule electrification will be completed till 2018, the second track will be constructed within seven years after the opening of the fixed link (according to the Treaty). Regarding the alignment of the railway connection between Lübeck and Puttgarden, controversial discussions are ongoing and regional resistance to the planned modernisation along the existing alignment is increasing, mostly due to noise. Ongoing regional planning procedures shall be finalised in There are 4 alignment options under discussion: Option 1A along the existing alignment with minor changes (Neustadt, Oldenburg) Options A / E mostly along the existing motorway A1 Option X mostly outside settlements Version 2, » 16 32

17 Figure 3 Alignment options in the Lübeck - Puttgarden section The different alignment options have only insignificant impact on freight traffic. But for passenger traffic the environmental impact vs. accessibility is discussed, as stops in options A / E / X are located mostly far away from settlements. Version 2, » 17 32

18 The German Federal Programme for Transport Infrastructure Improvements (BVWP) and the regional transport master plan (LNVP) also include measures for upgrading of the Hamburg - Lübeck line. In the Hamburg - Ahrensburg section two (partly only one) separate tracks for the suburban traffic (S- Bahn line 4) are planned.. Figure 4 Upgrading of Hamburg - Lübeck line section (additional tracks for suburban traffic) The additional tracks between Hamburg and Ahrensburg will increase capacity for freight and longdistance passenger traffic in the Hamburg - Lübeck - Puttgarden corridor and the Hamburg node by shifting the considerable number of regional trains between Hamburg and Ahrensburg (60 or 30 minutes interval, additional trains during peak hours) on the suburban tracks. Currently no time horizon is given for the realisation of this investment Hinterland connection in Denmark On the Danish side upgrading and modernisation of the hinterland connection of the Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link include the following measures: Construction of a new line Copenhagen Koge - Ringsted. The line is designed for maximum speed of 250 km/h and will be equipped with ETCS-2. It is presently under construction and should be finalised in Investment costs amount to 1.5 billion EUR. Upgrading of the line between Ringsted and Rødbyhavn. This includes electrification of the line and the construction of the second track between Vordingborg and Rødbyhavn. The app. 3.2 km long Storstrøm bridge will remain single track. A final decision on the design speed (160 or 200 km/h) is expected in The line will be equipped with ETCS-2. Upgrading should be completed in Total investment costs for this section amount to 1.3 billion EUR. There are still controversial discussions ongoing whether the complete corridor should be upgraded for high-speed traffic (250 km/h). The calculation of travel times between Berlin and Copenhagen (comp. 5) are based on the current infrastructure planning between Hamburg and Copenhagen. Version 2, » 18 32

19 The following figure gives an overview of the planned infrastructure level in the Fehmarnbelt corridor according to the current planning status: Figure 5 Fehmarnbelt Corridor Overview of planned railway infrastructure by Femern A/S Version 2, » 19 32

20 3.2 Further improvements in Germany The German Federal Programme for Transport Infrastructure Improvements (BVWP) includes the modernisation of the railway line between Berlin and Rostock. Thus this corridor offers interesting possibilities for improved transport services from Berlin and the Eastern part of Germany to Scandinavia, both for freight and passenger traffic. In passenger traffic these modernisation measures will facilitate attractive combined rail/ferry services to Scandinavia within a short-term horizon. The upgrading of the Rostock Berlin corridor includes the following main components: Increase of line speed to 160 km/h Increase of axle load to 25 tons Travel time will decrease to less than 2 hrs. (from presently 2 hrs 40 min.) Total investment costs about 850 MEUR Completion planned in 2016 Also modernisation of the railway line from Berlin to Stralsund is planned: Modernisation of signalling technology and increase of line capacity Step-wise increase of line speed to 160 km/h Total investment costs about 150 MEUR No time horizon for completion Another project within the German Federal Programme for Transport Infrastructure Improvements (BVWP) is the modernisation of the railway line from Lübeck via Bad Kleinen to Schwerin. Presently it is a non-electrified line. Passenger services between Lübeck and Schwerin are hampered by the need for trains to change direction in Bad Kleinen. In combination with adjacent railway lines it is also a possible additional north-south corridor bypassing Hamburg. To improve the situation the following measures are planned: electrification of the line section Lübeck - Bad Kleinen (59 km) increasing of maximum speed to 120 km/h construction of a by-pass (connecting curve) in Bad Kleinen (maximum speed 80 km/h) Figure 6 Modernisation of Schwerin / Bad Kleinen Lübeck railway line Version 2, » 20 32

21 Investment costs for the single-track electrification and an additional bypass in Bad Kleinen amount to 100 million EUR. Travel time of regional trains between Lübeck and Schwerin will decrease from 65 to 60 minutes. Long distance trains were not part of the analyses of the Federal Programme 11, but could connect Lübeck and Schwerin within 45 minutes. There are further projects planned, improving railway network capacity to and from ports in Northern Germany: Upgrading of Uelzen - Stendal section to double-track line with design speed of 160 km/h Upgrading of Berlin - Stendal line (2 electrified tracks for freight and regional traffic) Modernisation / new line sections between Hamburg/Bremen and Hannover ( Y line, 92 km new double-track line, upgrading of 22 km, increasing design speed to 160 / 300 km/h) Currently for all three projects no realisation horizon is given. The long-term development of railway network in Northern Germany is part of a public discussion including alternative solutions to the Y line increasing capacity mainly of freight traffic. Part of the discussed solutions is also the upgrading of the Lüneburg Büchen Lübeck line (currently single-track and non-electrified) which would allow the shortest route for passenger trains between Berlin and Copenhagen bypassing Hamburg. In addition to the measures included in the German Federal Programme for Transport Infrastructure Improvements (BVWP) in 2008 DB AG started a programme with immediate measures for upgrading capacity of the railway network, which include the railway nodes Hamburg and Bremen and the lines from the ports to Hannover. This programmed included additional siding tracks on the Berlin - Hamburg line. 3.3 Infrastructure improvements in Sweden and Norway Infrastructure upgrading in the Swedish sections of the investigated railway corridors include construction of second track increase of design speed The upgrading of West Coast Main Line Copenhagen/Malmö Gothenburg Trollhättan should be completed in The section between The Kornsjö - Öxnered line section (98 km) will remain single track. Till 2015 the line from Malmö to - Trelleborg (32 km) will be upgraded with increase of the design speed to 160 km/h for passenger trains. Presently possible increase of line speed to 250 km/h in the Stockholm - Malmö corridor is under investigation. In Norway a new quadruple-track line from Oslo to Ski is planned. Upgrading should be completed by The section from Haug to Kornsjö (95 km) will remain single track. 11 The cost-benefit-ratio of the project is positive for the project (2.5; necessary is 1.0) without any long distance passenger transport on the section Version 2, » 21 32

22 4 Identification of bottlenecks and recommendations Based on the analysed future traffic demand and the already planned infrastructure improvements remaining bottlenecks have been identified. These bottlenecks include both infrastructural constraints and also operational problems. This chapter includes recommendations for additional small-scale, short- and medium-term investments in railway infrastructure and operational improvements which might help to eliminate or minimise these constraints. 4.1 Infrastructure bottlenecks The analysis focuses on infrastructure constraints in the German part of the Fehmarnbelt hinterland connection. But when analysing infrastructural constraints it is important to take into consideration that increasing freight and passenger traffic over the new Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link can cause capacity problems in the railway network farther away from the direct hinterland connection, for example in the heavily used corridors from the ports to the South, especially to Hannover. According to actual German planning the single-track railway line between Lübeck and the Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link will be electrified till 2018, but is to be upgraded to a double-track line only by This is also stipulated in the Treaty between Denmark and Germany. Based on the various existing traffic forecasts, including the whole variety from moderate to rather optimistic, the possible volume of passenger and freight train traffic is shown in the figure below. Hamburg Lübeck Neustadt Puttgarden Rødby Nykøbing Ringsted Kopenhagen * Figure 7 Possible traffic demand between Hamburg and Copenhagen (trains per day) Remarks: Blue figures - optimistic forecasts (trains per day) Red figures - pessimistic forecasts (trains per day) Green figures - present traffic (only passenger trains) * incl trains to/from Western Danmark When comparing the forecasted number of trains in Figure 7 with Table 9 in chapter 4.2 below, it becomes obvious that a single-track line between Puttgarden and Lübeck may cause capacity problems after the opening of the fixed link. Other potential bottlenecks in the modernised Fehmarnbelt corridor are the two single-track bridges, the Storstrøm bridge on the Danish side and the Fehmarnsund bridge in Germany. Capacity of singletrack line sections depends on different factors, mainly on the length of the sections, the signalling system, but also on different speed levels for (freight and passenger) trains. According to calculations by Trafikstyrelsen, the capacity of the app. 3 km long Storström bridge is 8 trains per hour. This should be sufficient for the presently expected future traffic demand. Thus the about only 1 km long Fehmarnsund bridge should also cope with forecasted railway traffic. Version 2, » 22 32

23 One of the major bottlenecks in the railway network is the Lübeck railway node. The future capacity of this node is crucial for the success of the Fehmarnbelt corridor. This is important not only in terms of coping with the expected freight and passenger traffic moving through the node, but also to offer free and unrestricted access to the port facilities in and around Lübeck. With additional trains to and from Puttgarden the node will reach a critical limit. Figure 8 Traffic load in the Lübeck railway node 2015 (trains per day) The Municipality of Lübeck published a report on bottlenecks in the local railway network in This report compares the forecasted traffic demand for 2015 (see Figure 8above) with the maximum capacity of the railway network. From this analysis it becomes obvious that additional traffic induced by a fixed link over the Fehmarnbelt will leave the railway network with almost no capacity reserves. Based on future traffic demand as expected by Deutsche Bahn AG, 105 train pairs will be operated daily in the Puttgarden - Lübeck line section instead of 22 calculated for This additional traffic will result in 210 trains arriving in Lübeck Hbf daily per direction compared to a maximum capacity of 11 trains per hour per direction. As a consequence, the fault liability of the transport system would increase dramatically. Another critical link in the German hinterland connections is the Hamburg railway node. This part in the railway network is of special importance for future passenger traffic. For freight traffic there exist several options to bypass Hamburg, especially for transports to and from the Eastern part of Germany. For passenger traffic it is rather problematic to avoid Hamburg, as it is a major origin/destination and also an important connecting point for long-distance railway services to and from Copenhagen/Malmö. Parallel to the already planned measures for upgrading the Hamburg railway node, further investments are required to facilitate the possibilities for freight trains to by-pass the node. This especially refers to the upgrading of the Lübeck - Büchen - Lüneburg line, but also to the line via Bad Kleinen and Schwerin. Version 2, » 23 32

24 The following table illustrates and summarises possible capacity constraints for the Fehmarnbelt railway corridor based on the actual planning of infrastructure improvements. Line section Hamburg - Lübeck Lübeck Neustadt Neustadt - Puttgarden Puttgarden - Rødby Rödby - Nyköbing Nyköbing - Ringsted Ringsted - Copenhagen Consequences Will reach its capacity limit with Fehmarnbelt especially near Hamburg and within Lübeck node No restraints to be expected with double track, single track might lead to some restraints/reduced capacity No restraints to be expected with double track, single track might lead to some restraints/reduced capacity No restraints to be expected with double track No restraints to be expected with double track No restraints to be expected with double track Will reach its capacity limit with Fehmarnbelt Table 8 Sections and possible capacity constraints Conclusions: The existing and planned railway and road infrastructure north of Lübeck should be sufficient to handle forecasted transport demand in the Fehmarnbelt corridor from 2025 onwards. But the railway line Lübeck Puttgarden should be upgraded to a double track line before Capacity restraints to be expected in the railway node of Lübeck and Hamburg (especially on the line towards Hamburg) Additional infrastructure measures should be realised in order to add capacity or circumvent the nodes (i.e. upgrading / electrification of the railway lines towards Bad Kleinen and Lüneburg via Büchen) Version 2, » 24 32

25 4.2 Operational problems Untill now no decisions had been made regarding a future operational concept for railway passenger traffic in the Fehmarnbelt corridor. On the German side this refers mainly to regional traffic, but also to the future routes of direct long-distance trains between Berlin and Copenhagen. The operational concept for passenger traffic should also be discussed and agreed with the Danish railway operators. The capacity of a railway line heavily depends on operational parameters. In connection with the existing signalling system and the distances between possibilities passing and overtaking of trains, the train speed, especially the different speed levels for passenger and freight trains, is a major influencing factor. High-speed passenger traffic on single-track lines is rather uncommon, but also on doubletrack lines the parallel operation of high-speed trains and slow freight trains leads to significant decrease of capacity. The table below gives a general orientation for capacity calculations depending on the operational speed of passenger and freight trains. Single track Vmax, Passenger trains Vmax, freight trains 250 km/h 200 km/h 160 km/h 140 km/h 120 km/h 140 km/h X (20-40) km/h X (20-40) km/h X X km/h X X (20-40) Double track Vmax, Passenger trains Vmax, freight trains 250 km/h 200 km/h 160 km/h 140 km/h 120 km/h 140 km/h km/h (80-160) ( ) km/h X (80-160) km/h X (60-160) (80-200) Table 9 General estimate of railway line capacity (trains per day, both directions) 12 Remarks: The green fields indicate possible speed combinations. Combinations in the yellow fields may cause problems and should be operated only as an exception. The red fields are impossible speed combinations of freight and passenger traffic. The figures in the table are the possible number of trains per day in a mixed passenger/freight operation. 12 Source: ETC's own calculations Version 2, » 25 32