Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe

Transcription

1 Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe

2 About this report After a tender procedure this job was commissioned to HTC - Hanseatic Transport Consultancy who have entered into a partnership with data lab for this task. During the process there have been regular contacts between the consultant and the STRING secretariat as well as two reviews/sessions with infrastructure experts from the STRING partners. STRING Secretariat Alléen 15 DK-4180 Sorø Tel: + 45 (0) The content, wording and conclusions in this report are solely the responsibility of the consultants. ISBN number: The consultants Multidimensional experience in the field of consultancy and practical expertise form the basis of our independent and authoritative approach to consultancy, an approach geared to achieving all your objectives. The range of expert advice on offer from HTC - Hanseatic Transport Consultancy - includes not only classic strategy and management consultancy for businesses operating in the fields of transport and logistics but also guidance on policies and institutions, notably in questions relating to competition and industrial politics. The way of our approach considers the increasing requirements of our customers with regard to economic and ecologic topics. HTC's consultancy advice is distinguished not at least by its independence, high standards and flexibility, bringing together a tried and tested methodology with a profound understanding of the transport sector. Innovative solutions trigger forward-looking perspectives for companies, policy, economy and society. As the competent assessment of high-speed networks in Northern Europe requires a multilateral expertise regarding market and infrastructure development aspects in at least the three countries (Germany, Denmark, Sweden), HTC has joined forces with the Danish company TDL. Hanseatic Transport Consultancy Dr. Ninnemann & Dr. Rössler GbR Schopenstehl 15 (Miramar-Haus) D Hamburg Dr. Jan Ninnemann, Dr. Thomas Rössler Tel: +49 (0) /-08 info@htc-consultancy.de TDL Transport Data Lab Henrik Sylvan Strandhøjen 3 DK-4000 Roskilde Henrik Sylvan Tel: +45 (0) henrik@sylvans.dk Status:

3 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe III Executive Summary Long term perspectives for European transport markets are very promising. Overall market figures for Europe are expected nearly to double until Main growth driver is the freight segment. Yet for Europe's still fairly varying transport markets (EU 12 vs. EU 15) a strong and further growing meaning of road (passenger and freight) transport is expected to take place during the next decades. In general the infrastructures of aviation and maritime navigation can be evaluated as in principle in adequate condition. Inland waterways are of different meaning in the member states and of limited meaning in the given context. Road and especially the rail transport mode show the strongest need of modernisation and enhancement investment activities. More than other regions of Europe the Baltic Sea region (here Denmark, Germany, Sweden) is focussing especially on rail transportation to meet future mobility and logistical demands. Country by country there are different focuses to be set. Three main drivers are claiming to boost and integrate infrastructure developments in Europe and the member states especially for road and rail transportation: The political willingness documented in the current White Paper - Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area to support the European unification through a focussed transport infrastructure network development programme (TEN-T). The overall growth perspective of the transport markets of the EU member states (see below e.g. the EU market forecast 2030 in detail). The necessity to support the "decarbonisation" of the economy by applying efficient mobility and "green logistics" concepts e.g. by focussing on more environmentfriendly transport modes like rail and inland waterways. For the reduction of only 5% of EU 27 road freight transport services a capacity increase of 25% increase on rail is necessary. Whilst in the mentioned countries the rail networks are being dismantled for many years, a counteracting process speeded up since the market opening process initiated in Therefore it is little surprising that intermodal market shares of rail in Europe is declining as well as in Denmark, Germany (decline/stagnation ) and Sweden. For Scandinavia and Central Europe the Fixed Fehmarnbelt Link (FBL) is of strong meaning generally in order to bring both regions closer together by enabling people and commodities to reach their targets faster and more cost-efficient. On both sides of the link capable infrastructure interfaces are vital. The demand for huge investments for the FBL itself and their hinterland connections as well as network enhancements on the Danish and German side is evident. This affects primarily the environment-friendly rail transport mode which has to be enabled to play a stronger role in the European transport markets in future. As public households are short and fiscal funding of infrastructure investments is at most to be spent for modernisation purposes further financial sources should be generated to afford European cross-border enhancement projects which support the unification of Europe and generate reasonable returns on investment. Moreover efficiency of public money in this respect should be kept as high as possible. A close look to the market requirements and an efficient infrastructure planning and implementation process along the FBL corridor can contribute to it.

4 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe IV According to the needs of the markets adequate solutions are to be found with regard to capacity and travelling times. For the FBL in general a double-track is to be recommended which allows trains to connect Copenhagen and Hamburg within competitive travel times. Forecasted train figures for 2025 (per day/2 directions) are 22 long distance passenger trains, 38 short distance public urban transport trains, 78 freight trains which require together with the officially planned mixed-train-operations concept including fast running passenger ( 160 km/h) and freight trains ( 120 km/h) a dedicated doubletrack alignment. For the railway system to be consistent, weak points in the network must be repaired. The single track sections of both Fehmarnsound bridge and Storstrømmen bridge represent bottlenecks that must be eliminated in order to safeguard the capability of the corridor capacity in total. For the Storstrømmen bridge a capable solution is already in discussion. It is clear that a solution with the S4 and a separated S-Bahn Hamburg-Ahrensburg (Bad Oldesloe) and thus two extra tracks is necessary in a situation where there is a significant extra pressure caused by the opening of FBL. On the Danish side extra tracks are also needed on the Øresund line in order to handle German-Swedish cargo transit better, and because of the expectations of a future semihigh speed train service between Hamburg and southern Sweden. This requires a bypass extension at Copenhagen Airport. The Swedish rail network is heavily utilized, and therefore the entire route Malmö-Lund C requires two extra tracks, like the Helsingborg node that requires an additional track towards the north. The motorway networks around large cities already today are heavily congested i.a. Copenhagen or Hamburg. For both capable solutions like bypasses must be found (e.g. eastern harbour tunnel in Copenhagen).

5 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe Content V Page 1. Initial situation 1 2. Expectations for Traffic Volumes in the European context Current Situation of the European Transport Sector Major Trends Present trends within EU Rail Transport Sector Planning Horizon The 2011 White Book of the EU Planning Horizon 2030 for Europe Interim Summary for Europe Expectations for Denmark Expectations for Germany General Remarks Short-term Forecast 2015 (2011) Transport forecast for Germany Expectations in Sweden A North-South View into the Future Introducing Remarks EU Transport Forecast Planning Horizon Transport Forecast for FBL National Forecast for the Belt link Transport Forecast of Fehmern AS 2015/ Summary on General Infrastructure Topics Infrastructure development and bottlenecks Railway infrastructure Germany Denmark Sweden Road infrastructure Germany Denmark Sweden Sea-/Air transportation Assessment of existing infrastructure concepts General Assessment Corridor-related Assessment Recommendations for solving infrastructure problems General remarks North-South-Corridor in Germany North-South Corridor through South Sweden - Denmark 104

6 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe VI List of Tables Table 1 Transport Sector Development in Denmark 14 Table 2 Travel Forecast Land Transport in Denmark, Table 3 Passenger Transport Forecast for Germany 2015 (2011) 21 Table 4 Freight Transport Forecast for Germany 2015 (2011) 21 Table 5 Freight Transport Forecast for Germany Table 6 Passenger Transport Forecast for Germany Table 7 Transport Sector Development in Sweden 30 Table 8 Long Term Development of Swedish Passenger Transport 32 Table 9 Rail-based Hinterland Containertransport Plannings of Sea Ports 89

7 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe VII List of Figures Figure 1 Development of EU Transport Passenger Transport Industry Figure 2 Market Shares of EU Transport Passenger Transport Industry Figure 3 Development of EU Transport Freight Transport Industry Figure 4 Market Shares of EU Transport Freight Transport Industry Figure 5 Railway Passenger Transport Services Within the EU Figure 6 Rail Freight Transport Services Within the EU Figure 7 Passenger Transport Services Within the EU Figure 8 Market Share of Passenger Transport Services Within the EU Figure 9 Rail Freight Transport Services Within the EU Figure 10 Market share of Freight Transport Services Within the EU Figure 11 EU Passenger Transport Indexed Services Figure 12 EU Freight Transport Indexed Services Figure 13 Mode Split (pkm) in Danish Transport Figure 14 Transport Behaviour Development, Average Citizen Figure 15 Growth in Traffic by Vehicle-km in Denmark Figure 16 Road traffic Scenarios for Denmark Figure 17 Road Traffic Network Forecast for Denmark Figure 18 Major Crossings Scenarios Sweden - Denmark - North Germany 18 Figure 19 Major Crossing Scenarios Sweden - Denmark - North Germany 19 Figure 20 Growth in the Freight Flows South Sweden - Denmark - North Germany 19 Figure 21 Transport Services for Germany Figure 22 Rail Passenger Transport Forecast for Germany Figure 23 Rail Freight Transport Forecast for Germany Figure 24 Freight Transport on Main Corridors in Germany Figure 25 Rail Freight Transport on Main Corridors in Germany Figure 26 Swedish Freight Transport Development by Mode 30 Figure 27 Freight and Passenger Transport Growth in Sweden 31 Figure 28 Mode Split in Swedish Transport, person km 31 Figure 29 Transport Growth in Sweden , Forecasts and Realisation 32 Figure 30 Freight Transport Forecast for Sweden 33 Figure 31 Freight Transport Forecast for Sweden 33 Figure 32 Figure 33 Figure 34 Figure 35 Long-term Passenger Transport Forecast for Dedicated Countries -Denmark, Germany and Sweden for 2030 (Index 1990=100) 35 Long-term Freight Transport Forecast for Dedicated Countries -Denmark, Germany and Sweden for 2030 (Index 1990=100) 36 Long-term Rail Passenger Transport Forecast for EU 27 and Baltic Region Countries for 2030 (Index 1990=100) 37 Long-term Rail Freight Transport Forecast for EU 27 and Baltic Region Countries for 2030 (Index 1990=100) 37 Figure 36 Road Vehicle Forecast for the FBL 39 Figure 37 Rail Vehicle Forecast for the FBL 40

8 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe VIII Figure 38 Fehmarn Belt Link According to TEN-T 42 Figure 39 Basic Developments of Rail Infrastructure of DB AG 44 Figure 40 Use of Railway Network Infrastructure of DB AG Figure 41 Current Railway Network Bottlenecks in Germany 45 Figure 42 Main Train Path Corridors of the German Railway Network 46 Figure 43 Total Network Utilisation of German Rail Network Figure 44 Rail Infrastructure Use 2010 Directly to FBL Hinterland Connections 48 Figure 45 Railway Node of Hamburg 50 Figure 46 Expected Train per Day Paths of Lübeck Railway Node Figure 47 Calculated Train Path Capacity per Hour of Lübeck (including Capacity Enhancement Hamburg - Lübeck) 53 Figure 48 Current Situation of the Railway Route Lübeck - Puttgarden 54 Figure 49 Alternatives Routes of the Lübeck - Puttgarden - Corridor 56 Figure 50 Rail Passenger (left) and Freight Flows (right) in Denmark 58 Figure 51 Capacity Utilization Figure 52 New Rail Line Copenhagen-Ringsted 60 Figure 53 The Ny Ellebjerg Junction 61 Figure 54 Capacity Improvement on the Øresound Line at the Station of Copenhagen Airport 61 Figure 55 The Bypass Line Built as a Fly-over at the Crossing of Øresound Highway and Øresound Railway at Copenhagen Airport 62 Figure 56 The Upgrading Project Ringsted-Rødby 63 Figure 57 New Bridge across Storstrømmen 64 Figure 58 Rail Congestion in the Swedish Main Network, Forecast Figure 59 Elimination of Railway Bottlenecks in Scania 66 Figure 60 Scenarios for Freight Traffic 67 Figure 61 Øresound Crossings by Train Figure 62 Small and Large Infrastructure Capacity Projects in the Øresound Region 69 Figure 63 Road Vehicle Figures for Northern Germany Figure 64 Expected Vehicle Figures for 2025 in Context with the Extension of the Route B207 between Heiligenhafen East and Puttgarden 72 Figure 65 Annual Use of Fehmarn Sound Bridge by Vehicles Figure 66 Monthly Use of Fehmarn Sound Bridge by Vehicles Figure 67 Capacity of Roads as a Function of Number of Available Lanes 75 Figure 68 Car Traffic Flows in the Main Road Network of Denmark Figure 69 Prediction of Congestion in the Main Road Network Figure 70 New Western Ring Road in the Ring 5 Corridor 78 Figure 71 Eastern Ring Road via a Northern Harbour Tunnel 79 Figure 72 Reduced Traffic of Roads in the Copenhagen Region 80 Figure 73 Upgrading of Highway from Rødby to Sakskøbing 81 Figure 74 Road Capacity in Sweden 82 Figure 75 Ongoing Infrastructure Projects in Southern Sweden 83 Figure 76 Catchment Area of Copenhagen Airport 84 Figure 77 Embarking Passengers at HAM by Region 85

9 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe IX Figure 78 Main Cargo Flows via Lübeck 86 Figure 79 Preparation for the Fixed Link 87 Figure 80 Main Hinterland Corridors of Seaports (growth trains/day until 2015) 89 Figure 81 GHG Green House Gas Emissions by sectors EU Figure 82 CO2 Emissions from Transport EU Figure 83 Deviation Analysis for Road and Rail Freight of Passed Forecasts for Germany 97

10 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 1 1. INITIAL SITUATION On the third of September in 2008, the Federal Republic of Germany and the Kingdom of Denmark signed the treaty for the construction of the Fehmarnbelt crossing link. After approval by the two national parliaments, the treaty entered into force on the 15th of January With the enforcement of the FBL treaty, the German government guarantees to upgrade the hinterland infrastructure in accordance with the provisions of the treaty. As an ongoing dissent regarding the final design parameters for both the Danish and the German hinterland connection can currently be observed, various capacity problems for the traffic flow in 2025 are expected if the assumed traffic growth takes place after the opening of the fixed Fehmarnbelt link. These so called bottlenecks are locations that will affect the traffic flow to and from the FBL. The expected bottlenecks may preliminary affect rail and road. With regard to the Hamburg - Øresound axis it is reasonable not just to upgrade the infrastructure in the near FBL hinterland, but moreover it is of high importance to consider a parallel updating of the network infrastructure which increases the use of the FBL, e. g. in the metropolitan areas like Hamburg and Copenhagen as well as bypasses opening the possibility to reach other destinations than the metropolitan centres without interference. Peak congestion levels of the present road and rail infrastructure during rush hours are getting higher and longer lasting. Though investment policies of the transport authorities focus on keeping up the speed of their capacity expansion programme some warning indications can be found while the free movement of people and goods is constantly threatened. Implementation of intelligent transport systems, road pricing measures for trucks and political considerations of the need to introduce congestion charging for all vehicles reflect the challenges that still more regulations of mobility could be a possible scenario. The FBL itself results in a travel time reduction of one hour giving higher accessibility to the markets on "the other side", but total travel time of point-to-point cross border flows is increasingly depending on specific system effects. As the aim of the STRING partnership is to jointly develop the potential of the partner regions and, in the light of the global and rapidly changing economy (and ecology), work out joint strategies, the elimination of infrastructure bottlenecks plays an important role in today s (political) discussion. To be able to give the politicians a full overview of existing and expected bottlenecks in the infrastructure on the Hamburg - Øresound axis STRING partners have asked for a comprehensive cross-border analysis based on existing reports. The following analysis of bottlenecks on the corridor between Hamburg and Copenhagen/Malmö generally covers the following aspects: Long-term expectations for traffic volumes in the European context, Infrastructure development and bottlenecks, Assessment of existing infrastructure concepts, Recommendation for solving infrastructure capacity problems.

11 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 2 2. EXPECTATIONS FOR TRAFFIC VOLUMES IN THE EUROPEAN CONTEXT To better understand distinctions in infrastructure development along the Hamburg- Øresound corridor this chapter gives a brief assessment of the framework conditions by analysing future expectations for traffic volumes on the main European north-south corridors. In order to give a brief introduction to this issue firstly a view from the European Level on the present and the past of the transport sector will be done. Afterwards some investigation on the expected future of the transport sector will be executed. Both elements shall contribute to describe the future demand of infrastructure capacity in Europe in general and with special interest on the North-South Corridor. A focus will be put especially on those transport modes such as road and rail where capacity restraints are most likely. Before a political or economical assessment of transport infrastructure restraints is possible, the current situation on the transport markets, the different modes and types (passenger, freight) are to be described in general and in some respect including more detailed analyses. Therefore the "expectations" were put into front. After having analysed the general capacity situation and in addition to that especially regarding road and rail on the North-South-Corridor, a valid evaluation is possible which should include priorities and some likelihoods considering lessons learned from the younger past. This approach shall contribute to distinguish between on the one hand "urgent" requirements being published by different (interested) parties and "wishful-thinking-options" on the other hand. 2.1 Current Situation of the European Transport Sector Major Trends The following Figure 1 shows some major relevant trends of the passenger transport sector to be stressed here. One is a continuous growth path in the passenger market segment during the last circa 15 years but also a certain "zenith-like indication" since Especially the passenger-car based mobility flags saturation. Behind the figures some fundamental behavioural changes like concentration of people in the metropolitan areas (favouring bus and tram/metro transports), growing average age of European population and a lower interest especially of young people regarding the use of (own) cars are of relevance. Second trend is, that still there are no signals reflecting a serious intermodal change towards more energy-efficient public transport or rail transport or so e.g. as a reaction to climate change challenges. During the whole discussed period there is a stabile 73%- share of individual mobility (car-based). As the figure demonstrates the general understanding of mobility in Europe is remaining "conservative" up to date (see Figure 2). In comparison with the passenger sector the freight transport operations emerge as the real growth driver instead there are only limited investments dedicated especially to (at least rail and inland waterways) the freight business. Market growth until 2007 exceeds

12 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 3 one third of total volumes in figures show the sharp decline caused by worldwide commercial distortion as Figure 3 demonstrates. 1 Figure 1 Development of EU Transport Passenger Transport Industry Mio. pkm Years Passenger Cars Powerd 2 Wheeler Bus & Coach Railway Air Tram & Metro Sea Source: ETIF - Energy and Transport Figures Figure: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy. Figure 2 Market Shares of EU Transport Passenger Transport Industry % 80% 1000 Mio. pkm 60% 40% 20% 0% Years Passenger Cars Powerd 2 Wheeler Bus & Coach Railway Air Tram & Metro Sea Source: ETIF - Energy and Transport Figures Figure: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy. 1 The picture uses all modes of transport. Reduced on land transport mode two the road sector increased his meaning in the markets form 67.4% to 73.8% in the relevant interval.

13 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 4 Figure 3 Development of EU Transport Freight Transport Industry Mio. tkm Road Rail Inland Waterways Pipelines Sea Air Source: ETIF - Energy and Transport Figures Figure: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy. 0 shows the market shares 1995 to 2009 reflecting a growing trend towards road based transports and logistics. This effect is mainly influenced by changes within the commodities' structure ("logistics effect") and the manufacturing industries as well as their international cooperative relations. Demand oriented logistic concepts like "just-in-time" and "justin-sequence" gain meaning as they contribute to reduce storage capacities and thereby capital cost. Figure 4 Market Shares of EU Transport Freight Transport Industry % 80% Mio. tkm 60% 40% 20% 0% Road Rail Inland Waterways Pipelines Sea Air Source: ETIF - Energy and Transport Figures Figure: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy.

14 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 5 The drafted situation of the overall transport sector on the EU level has to be considered in the context of the current forecasts for the planning horizons 2030 or For Europe in fact any kind of change regarding the intermodal structures is not very likely at least until 2030 (see below). This might be different if it comes to drastic price increases for energy and staff or ecological requirements to be implemented in the meantime. In Germany many of the politicians and opinion leaders since about 20 years are arguing in favour of an intermodal shift towards rail and assume according substation effects promoted e.g. by a better rail infrastructure capacity offer. 3 Some of the results of the well known intermodal-change transport doctrine are described in the following Present trends within EU Rail Transport Sector In general there are many political expectations in rail to solve the growing ecological and transport growth challenges. For the better understanding of the principle ability of rail to match that anticipations the current situation of the European rail transport industry the following graphs are to be considered as they to a certain extent describe the likelihood and the ambitions of current transport e.g. infrastructure planning of the European Commission (EC) at least for the railway sector. As shown in the following figures in the EU - instead of market opening process - generally the market share of rail transport services declined in the past. The overall market growth exceeds the growth path the railway sector took during the last about twenty years. 4 Accordingly the rail passenger sector lost market share from 6.6% in 1995 to 6.2% in 2009 (see Figure 5) by at the same time growing absolute service figures (slight exception 2009 due downturn effects caused by world-wide finance crisis). The rail freight sector in the same period suffered tremendously by various effects like tough intermodal competition and upcoming intramodal competition, macro-economic changes like "logistics effect" and "goods-structure effect" (more lightweight goods instead of bulk), the growing trend to demand-based "just-in-time" and "just-in-sequence" logistics and yet in general a non-adequate service offer to the markets (travelling time, absence of damage of goods, IT-based logistics (e.g. track & tracing systems)) See the latest paper of strategic long-term meaning of the European Commission: White Paper. Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system, COM(2011) 144 final. Link: EN:PDF ( ). A growing proportion of politicians in the meantime today begin to re-think modal-shift policy due to very limited effects. From that fact based perspective it can hardly understand why certain representatives and politicians are still arguing the market opening process shall be a success story. See "Liberalisation-Index" developed on behalf of DB AG, current version under link: attachements/position papers/study rail liberalisation index 2011 complete version.pdf ( ).

15 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 6 Figure 5 Railway Passenger Transport Services Within the EU Passenger Transport (Mrd. pkm) ,6 6,2 7 6 Market share (pkm in %) EU 27 Member States Market Share Rail Passenger Source: ETIF - Energy and Transport Figures Figure: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy. Figure 6 Rail Freight Transport Services Within the EU Railfreight Transport (Bln. tkm) ,6 10, Marketshare (tkm in %) EU 27 Member States Market Share Railfreight Source: ETIF - Energy and Transport Figures Figure: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy.

16 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 7 Additionally there are some hints seriously to be taken into account that the market opening process in fact did not foster a "revitalisation" of rail on the European level. Of course there are some positive examples which can be found within the EU but the improvements there are counterbalance by deficits e.g. in the economies of the new Member States where transport policy focuses on road transport and infrastructure while at the same time state-owned railway companies (incumbents) remain state-owned organisations. They are not forced to become successful acting service providers like private entities as they are in fact to big to fail and funded by the state household. The pressure in total of the described challenges led to an reasonable growth path (e.g. caused by growing globalization of manufacturing industries) for rail freight but at the same time a loss of market share from about 13% in 1995 down to than 10% in See accordingly Figure 6. Nevertheless the EC argues that infrastructure improvements will bring the railway sector ahead in the long run. At the same time the struggling in the European Parliament about the "Recast" reflect the real lever to be taken into account and explain the lobbying activities of some of the major market members. As there is in fact no level playing field in the European railway industry at all infrastructural measures to improve cross-border transport flows will always loose some of their potential effectiveness. To get a sustainable future picture these principle circumstances of the transport sector's situation in the EU should be kept in mind and considered also in the context of evaluating future infrastructure development measures on the Scandinavian - Continental-Europe respectively on the North-South-Corridor Planning Horizon The 2011 White Book of the EU The most relevant address to publish transport forecasts on a European Level is the EC. Currently there are a few studies available regarding dedicated long-term views on future passenger and freight transport issues. The most important statements will be collected as far as they are of general relevance with the North-South-Corridor and the bottleneck analysis especially of the railway network. Most relevant for all future activities as far as transport policy issues are affected is the White Paper - Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area published in March There a broad range of targets is designed. Relevant in the context of infrastructure bottleneck are the following aims:

17 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 8 Between cities 50% of the middle-distance passenger and freight transports shall switch from road to rail and ship, Until 2050 the majority of passenger transports on routes of >300 km distance shall take place on rail, Until % of freight transports on routes of >300 km distance shall take place on rail and ship. The interim target of 2030 is a 30% share, Development of an efficient EU-wide core net of transport corridors allowing an intermodal change at the expense of the road sector until Until 2050 moreover required IT-solutions shall be in place, Integration of all airports within the EU preferable in a high-speed rail network and sufficient integration of all seaports in the core rail freight networks and if possible integration in the inland waterways system. If these plans would become reality the rail freight transport volume is likely to grow by more than 80% during the next decades. So the first priority of EU infrastructure policy is the enhancement the capability of the rail sector. On the other hand long-distance passenger transports and intercontinental freight services furthermore will predominantly be an issue of the airline and the maritime sector. A clear differentiation between the mentioned long distance and medium distance services is not given. It can be estimated that e.g. the rail freight transport services will increase enormously5 mainly driven by policy, on the other hand the requirements of the markets will be completely different than today. Whether the sector in deed will be in the position to meet these two major expectations has to be left open. The ability of the sector in total to "reinvent rail" is as well decisively as the future regulatory framework (e.g. "Recast" initiative) demanding the complete sector to revitalize all kind of customer-related, operational and managerial processes of rail transport and rail infrastructure business. One fact remains important that there is a strong political will within the EU to modernise the whole transport sector including i.a. to make him more independent from fossil energy sources and to favour rail and inland waterways to boost ecological-friendly transport modes. The analysis of bottlenecks in the infrastructures between Scandinavia and Central Europe has so far to consider current bottlenecks and at the same time consider future shortcomings caused by a rise of demand affected by political or commercial levers Planning Horizon 2030 for Europe In 2008 the EC published an updated forecast for transport service developments until Figure 7 shows the commonly expected development in the field of passenger transports between 1990 and Accordingly the passenger market in total will grow by about 85% up to 8.9 Billion pkm, the average growth rate is 2.1%. Aviation will quadruple the service volume up to 1.1 Billion pkm Transports with private cars will grow by more than 86% and rail as well is expected to grow significantly by nearly 44% until The public road transport sector accordingly shall grow only by about 11%. The absolute 5 EU officers stated 2011 during a transport conference that the growth of rail freight services will more than double until 2050 compared to 2007 (+ >110%) due to the potential changes described above.

18 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 9 figures for rail passenger transport will grow up to 668 Billion pkm 2030 which means a plus of about 44% compared to Average growth rate is expected to be 1.1%. Figure 7 Passenger Transport Services Within the EU Bln pkm Years Private cars and motorcycles Public road transport Rail Aviation Inland navigation Source: European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy and Transport: European Energy and Transport - Trends to 2030, Update 2007, Brussels Figure: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy. Figure 8 Market Share of Passenger Transport Services Within the EU % 80% Bln pkm 60% 40% 20% 0% Years Private cars and motorcycles Public road transport Rail Aviation Inland navigation Source: European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy and Transport: European Energy and Transport - Trends to 2030, Update 2007, Brussels Figure: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy. So mobility with private cars will dominate the market (Figure 8) furthermore with an average share of about 75%. For the rail mode a typical hockey-stick planning can be seen. Until 2015 and beginning in the past (1990) rail transport's market share will decrease down to less than 7% but afterward a revival is forecasted. 6 6 The rationality of this argumentation of the EC could not be evaluated within this study.

19 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 10 The meaning of passenger aviation services will increase sharply. Starting with a share about 5% in 1990 in 2030 more than 12% are expected by the EC's advisors. According to their judgement inland waterways will probably loose one half of their market share. 0.6% of all passenger transport services are expected to be produced there. With a total growth rate of nearly 98% the freight transport industry in Europe will nearly double the business volume until Total growth accordingly exceeds the passenger sector (+85%) definitely. Between 1990 and 2030 the truck based logistic area will nearly triple their volume up to Billion tkm (+156%). The European rail freight business is expected almost to stagnate. Total growth rate for the 40-years-interval is calculated with 6.5%, annual average growth shall be 0.2%. Looking at the market shares the main structural change is obvious. Truck based transport raised their meaning in the market and will also do in the future. More than 75% of the market in 2030 will be served by the road sector. First aggrieved party is the railway sector by losing market share of about 46% until Rail is expected to achieve a future share of 15%, in 1990 the share still was nearly 28%. Inland waterways will loose further market meaning according to the EC's consultants. There share of the market will go down by more than 30%. In 1990 the share was nearly 14% of all transport services within the EU-27, in 2030 the share will decrease to less than 10%. See in detail Figure 10. Figure 9 Rail Freight Transport Services Within the EU Bln tkm Years Trucks Rail Inland navigation Source: European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy and Transport: European Energy and Transport - Trends to 2030, Update 2007, Brussels Figure: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy.

20 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 11 Figure 10 Market share of Freight Transport Services Within the EU % 80% Bln tkm 60% 40% 20% 0% Years Trucks Rail Inland navigation Source: European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy and Transport: European Energy and Transport - Trends to 2030, Update 2007, Brussels Figure: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy. The following Figure 11 and Figure 12 summarize the structural effects on the EU transport sector currently expected by the EC. The differences between the forecast discussed here in comparison with the EC's long-term policy paper published in 2011 are evident. 7 Figure 11 EU Passenger Transport Indexed Services Bln pkm Index 1995= Years Development Passenger Tansport (Gpkm) EU 27 Development Public Road Transport Development Private Cars and Motorcycles Development Rail Transport Development Aviation Transport Development Inland Navigation Transport Source: European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy and Transport: European Energy and Transport - Trends to 2030, Update 2007, Brussels Figure: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy. The overall market development is primarily driven by the private car and motorcycle sector. As shown on the European level rail transport activities are declining between the early 1990ies and 2009, but it is projected according to the mentioned forecasts to display ac- 7 Figure 11 ignores the future aviation development for transparency reasons to ease understanding of the development of other transport modes.

21 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 12 celeration of growth from 2015 onwards (+1.2% p.a. in ) as a result of new and upgraded infrastructure projects facilitating networks of high train speeds. 8 Whether this is a viable strategy ("hockey-stick" planning) especially for the rail sector has to be left open. Due to the inadequate situation regarding sufficient financing of high-speed network investments doubts has to be seen. As other sources of reasonable amounts yet are in fact not available besides a tax-based financing, state-owned incumbents claim to have best credit rating which can not be topped by PPP or other private funding. 9 Nevertheless according to EU officers the EC is decided to simplify funding for the core rail network in the long term. The capacity requirements will rise significantly when it comes to intermodal changes on medium-distant routes in favour of rail. As already mentioned the freight market is estimated to grow significantly stronger compared to the passenger market. The main driver and real winner in the coming years is the truck-based freight and logistics branch. As inland waterways can slight increase the volume of transport services on a level higher than in 1990, the rail sector at the same time again is expected to loose further meaning in the market. Only in the very long run rail is seen to be in the position to top the transport volumes of the past (1990: 525 Billion tkm) with nearly 560 Billion tkm in 2030 ("hockey-stick" likely here again). Figure 12 EU Freight Transport Indexed Services Bln tkm Index 1995= Years Development Freight Transport Development Rail Transport Development Truck Transport Development Inland Navigation Transport Source: European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy and Transport: European Energy and Transport - Trends to 2030, Update 2007, Brussels Figure: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy. In October 2011, the EC has adopted a funding plan for investments worth 50 Billion Euro aimed at improving transport, energy and digital networks in Europe. A Connecting Europe Facility, in force starting with January 2014, shall be created to order to finance 8 9 European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy and Transport: European Energy and Transport - Trends to 2030, Update 2007, Brussels 2008, p.33. Link: ( ). This kind of argumentation was put into question due to the Europe wide debt crisis. E.g. Austria has stopped rail network investments (i.a. Brenner tunnel) due to credit ranking difficulties. Until mid of January 2012 Austria had triple A but yet is ranked with AA+ by S&P. See Österreich will Top-Bonität rasch zurück, Der Blick, Link: ( ).

22 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 13 projects that will eliminate the missing links in the transport networks. Optimising the performance of multimodal logistics chains, including by making greater use of more energyefficient modes is absolutely necessary. The Connecting Europe Facility will finance projects that will eliminate the missing links in the transport networks (see targets of the White Paper 2050 mentioned above). The transport systems in Europe have traditionally developed along national lines. The EC proposed to create corridors to cover the most important cross-border projects. It has estimated that by 2020, 500 Billion Euro will be needed to realise an effective European network, including 250 Billion Euro to eliminate the bottlenecks and completing missing links of the core freight network. It is intended for the next financial period that the Connecting Europe Facility makes available for transport infrastructure 31.7 Billion Euro. About 80% of this budget will be used to foster the development of the mentioned core network priority projects, projects along the 10 implementing corridors on the core network. In the transport sector, a Europe-wide "core network" has been identified using a pan- European planning methodology. This core network with corridors, carrying freight and passenger traffic with high efficiency and low emissions, makes extensive use of existing infrastructure. By completing missing links and alleviating bottlenecks and with the use of more efficient services in multimodal combinations, it will handle the bulk of transport flows in the single market. The cost of EU infrastructure development to match the demand for transport has been estimated at more than 1.5 Trillion Euro for for the entire transport networks of the EU Member States Interim Summary for Europe As a preliminary summary of the previously mentioned infrastructure and transport issues - which are not in all respects coherent - of the past, the presence and the future the following seems noteworthy: EC continually with a preference on rail transport mode in current White Book for 2050 Vision for 2050 includes ideas of modal shift under the assumption of a strong growth in rail transport services, Transport infrastructure policy in Europe with a total cost amount estimate of 1.5 Trillion Euro for the period , Strong efforts to safeguard funding of the investments (pending issue) Development of different core networks dedicated for passenger and freight transport on rail within the current White Paper, Until 2050 the majority of passenger transports on routes of >300 km distance shall take place on rail (political perspective), Official forecast with reduced importance of rail on future transport markets and limited growth potential until 2030 (annual average growth rate +0.2%) (commercial perspective). According to various forecast studies the growth perspective likely to take place in Europe are most challenging regarding the adequate supply of capacity and as well as the adjustment of the whole economy as far as ecological aspects are concerned. Growth driver number one in the passenger transport area will be the air transport industry. Due to abso-

23 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 14 lute figures the road transport will dominate the overall development. The likelihood of an intermodal change favouring rail or public transport services can be evaluated as limited. In the freight area the road sector will increase its market share and rail will probably loose further market shares. The macroeconomic renovation in the direction of e.g. future "decarbonisation" and "green transport" can not be discovered on a reasonable level. 2.2 Expectations for Denmark During the period the domestic traffic in Denmark passenger traffic increased annually by 0.5% in the road network and by 2% in the rail network. Thus occurs the policy to promote the railway to be successful, but the starting point is low. When looking at the national freight transport flows are increased by 1% p.a. both in the Danish road and rail network. Table 1 Transport Sector Development in Denmark ton km billion rail % road % person km billion rail % road % Source: Denmark Statistics, The individual traffic by car is dominant in Denmark with 66% of the total travel market. Public transport comprises trains and buses, carrying 8% and 9% of the passenger transport. Predictions for the future traffic can be based on several methods. An interesting data base at TU-Denmark deals with sociological and behavioural changes in transport consumption measured over a longer period and with a large and representative sample. An average Dane now uses 1 hour (57 minutes) per day for transportation purposes. This is an extension at no less than 22% during 10 years. It reflects, of course, economic growth, the continued development of a dynamic labour market and general increase of leisure time activities associated with being able to reach more destinations.

24 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 15 Figure 13 Mode Split (pkm) in Danish Transport 2009 Source: TU-data, Future of the transport sector, Ministry of Transport, Figure 14 Transport Behaviour Development, Average Citizen Source: TU travel data base from TU-Denmark. The average citizen travels 39 km. Radius of action for the individual person is thus increased by 17%, but the effectiveness of the journey have fallen, the average travel speed has gone from 42.7 km/h to 41.2 km/h. Social mobility is increased but congestion may explain that the accessibility and availability to reach an average of destinations has fallen by 3.5%, which all in all reduces the welfare economic gain stemming from transport sector.

25 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 16 Table 2 Travel Forecast Land Transport in Denmark, Personkm, billion Road 47,5 55,0 58,5 +6% Rail 4,9 6,6 13,0 +97% Bus 3,0 3,0 4,4 +47% Total 55,4 64,6 75,9 +17% Source: Future of the transport sector, Ministry of Transport, 2010 (excl vans and mini-trucks). These figures reflect, of course (mostly the former) government's goal of developing the transport sector. Only a green road pricing policy could keep the car transport at that low level of growth. On the other hand demand does not grow by itself. New services, especially within public transport need to be developed for the railways to be able to lift as large a share of growth in the coming years. Revitalization of the railway through major investment programs for improving the infrastructure has been initiated. The target is a doubling the railway transport by Road traffic is dominant in terms of overall traffic. In the Danish road network now runs 50 billion vehicle-kilometres per year representing a growth of around 50% over a period of 25 years. Figure 15 Growth in Traffic by Vehicle-km in Denmark Source: Danish Statistics, Figure 15 also reveals that transport by car include fewer and fewer people per car. Because of the continued motorization, we see a relatively larger increase in vehicle-km than growth in passenger-km.

26 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 17 Figure 16 Road traffic Scenarios for Denmark 2030 Source: Danish Infrastructure Commission (2030). Vehicle-km for cars, vans and small trucks for commercial purpose. The Danish Infrastructure Commission has envisaged a general 40% increase in vehiclekm towards 2030 (low scenario) or 60% increase (high scenario). On the main road network the increase would even get up to 70% for cars and almost 90% for trucks. Although these calculations are done before the financial crisis, and the model is calibrated on 2005 data, did the actual traffic reached the "high growth" level in Figure 17 Road Traffic Network Forecast for Denmark 2030 Source: Danish Infrastructure Commission report Development in car traffic, however, covers a more complex picture where local road network only sees about half of the growth shown on the illustration above, while especially the part of the state road network consisting of highways experience point wise twice the growth, particularly in "hotspots" around the major cities. The financial crisis has momentarily put growth to a halt. Initially there was a slight decline in passenger and truck traffic, but rail transport seems to grow in certain corridors. More recently truck traffic again experiences the upturn.

27 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 18 Overall can road traffic development in absolute terms be expected to pass the equivalent on the railway side. Thus, it is also on the main road network, that the biggest challenge in the form of increased congestion be expected. But the rail system is similarly congested and characterized by a number of bottlenecks on main lines, as well as in junctions and on stations. These capacity constraints will be dealt with later in this report. In the following the consultants will look a little more closely at the expectations of person and goods in principal corridors (border crossings, bridges and ferries). A quick overview on transport volumes in corridors shows a continued and significant growth in passenger as well as freight traffic. With respect to the passenger flow can be seen that the main traffic flows comprise eastwest traffic in Denmark, the traffic across Øresound (either via the Øresound Bridge or the Helsingør-Helsingborg ferry line) and traffic across the Danish-German border (North Schleswig). This picture is illustrated by a simplified projection to 2030, which partly relies on forecasts and, if these do not exist, a linear projection of +2% p.a. Figure 18 Major Crossings Scenarios Sweden - Denmark - North Germany Source: RUP 2.0 Strategic Development Studies, Capital Region Denmark, TDL For freight it is seen that especially the German-Danish border accounts for most of the traffic. We also see that the Baltic Sea routes directly from Sweden to Germany, also in 2030 play a major role in the freight area, although the FBL can be expected to attract both trucks and especially a lot of rail freight (if there is sufficient capacity to it). The 2030-case scenario is partly based on forecasts mainly documented in the IBU study, and if data not available, has a linear projection of 4% p.a. been chosen.

28 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe Figure Major Crossing Scenarios Sweden - Denmark - North Germany Source: RUP 2.0 Strategic Development Studies, Capital Region Denmark, TDL Regarding the international freight flow it seems like the most Western corridor will experience the largest change in absolute figures even though majority of rail freight will shift to the FBL. Road freight will continue to grow quite extensively. Figure 20 Growth in the Freight Flows South Sweden - Denmark - North Germany Source: TU-Denmark model (GORM 2005) growth output road freight international goods to/from/through Denmark. Danish Industry (Transport & Mobility 2010).

29 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe Expectations for Germany General Remarks On the national level traffic forecast issues are in fact exclusively steered and managed by the representatives of BMVBS for the transport on long-distance road, rail and inland waterways. Regarding the railway sector object of development steps is only the Federal railway network currently part of the DB Group. In Germany a lot of municipal railways also have own rail infrastructure. Some of them have relevance for cross-regional or national transport flows, most of them have a strong lack of capacity through inadequate technique like maximum speed or axle load, signalling, operating software and so on. Municipal railway companies are not in the position to invest and finance from own accounts in infrastructure and the public owners in fact regularly are not willed to support their own subsidiary companies. The national forecasts are basis for the future development of Federal transport infrastructures for all of the four modes documented regularly in the so called "Federal Transport Investment Plan" (FTIP). 10 The FTIP is result of the planning work done by various parties during its development and is concreted by the Federal Government for a defined period of time (a 10 years period is commonly applied). The projects of the FTIP become part of the so called requirement plan ("Bedarfsplan") for transport modes rail and road and legally documented in the "Bundesschienenwegeausbaugesetz" (BSchwAG). 11 Basis for all transport infrastructure development projects of the FTIP are 5 "Bundesschienenwegeausbaugesetz" resp. 5 "Fernstraßenausbaugesetz", these rules transform former common projects into demand related (prioritized) planning ("Bedarfspläne"). This planning is binding and has the character of law. The investment framework plans "Investitionsrahmenplan" for German transport infrastructure investments in general is no financing scheme but he gives a certain medium-term indication about the amounts of possible investments in Federal railway networks, long distance transport roads and inland waterways. Current time frame is Beside these official documents according further statements of selected transport industry companies (position papers) are available and more or less standard at least in the railway sector. Reasons for that are the unique market structure more or less close to a monopole - with market shares between 99% (passenger long distance transport) and 75% (freight transport) 12 and the very specific way of cooperation and division of work between BMVBS (representing the interests of the Federal owner) and DB AG as a commercial entity according to AG-Law. 13 To deepen overall work specific analyses are possible like the "Cor See current version under ( ). Between the Federal State of Germany and DB AG according financial documents are to be agreed upon. See 8.1 BSchwAG. In general a market dominating position is assumed by anti trust law if market share is above about 35%. At least regarding rail freight business it is not clear how the future of that sector will develop after incumbents of the rail industry stroke back against the emerging intramodal competition and took over most of the noteworthy German private railway companies between 2006 and See Thomas Rössler, Struktureller Wandel des Wettbewerbs - Quo vadis Schienenverkehr?, Internationales Verkehrswesen, November 2009, p.584ff.

30 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 21 ridor A" investigations to be executed in 2012 and onwards initiated by major railway and seaport companies Short-term Forecast 2015 (2011) The current plan for German Federal transport infrastructure investments ("Investitionsrahmenplan") is the basis for the development of the Federal railway networks, the long distance transport roads sector and inland waterway system. Planning horizon is The framework catalogue was published in December Table 3 Passenger Transport Forecast for Germany 2015 (2011) Forecast 2014 Forecast 2015 Bln pkm Share Bln pkm Share Bln pkm Share Bln pkm Share Road Rail Tram, Bus Air 36 3, Total Source: BMVBS (Edit.): Investitionsrahmenplan für die Verkehrsinfrastruktur des Bundes (IRP), 2011, p.8ff. Link: irp.pdf ( ). Calculations: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy. Table 4 Freight Transport Forecast for Germany 2015 (2011) Forecast 2014 Forecast 2015 Bln tkm Share Bln tkm Share Bln tkm Share Bln tkm Share Road Rail , Inl. Water Total Source: BMVBS (Edit.): Investitionsrahmenplan für die Verkehrsinfrastruktur des Bundes (IRP), 2011, p.8ff. Link: irp.pdf ( ). Calculations: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy. The comparison with the forecast for 2015 elaborated in 2003 the figures of the second forecast for 2015 vary significantly. Responsible for that is i.a. i) the grown expectations in transport issues in general, but ii) the limited quality of public statistic figures. They had been updated from time to time. These circumstances lead to different real figures for 1997 and subsequently to hardly comparable development paths for The tender procedure started in December 2011.

31 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 22 Regarding the new figures for 2010 it can be realized that these figures are already higher than the previously expected figures for Most important changes are the significantly higher target figures for passenger and freight services on road and at the same time the abdication of noteworthy growth paths for rail services causing decreasing shares of the market. This new forecast approach obviously considers the German experience, that the rail (freight) sector at least under the prevailing conditions is more or less not able to realize adequately the political expectations like "More Traffic on Rail" proclaimed since the 1990ies Transport forecast for Germany 2025 In 2007 the current forecast document named "Verflechtungsprognose" for transport services in Germany was published. 16 Accordingly the freight services in total are expected to grow by more than 70% and passenger services by nearly 20%. The proportion of different growth rates underlines the experience of the last years of the "Bahnreform" 17 in Germany where rail freight business became the real growth driver of the rail sector (profitable core business "freight"). Figure 21 Transport Services for Germany Bln tkm ,4 936,5 1302,6 548, Years Total Freight Transport Services Total Passenger Transport Services Source: See Figure 6 and Figure 7. See the following figures regarding passenger transport services in Germany for the years 2004 and 2025 on the basis of Table 5. Although many politicians argue in favour of rail Interesting detail: The new market shares of the transport modes for 2015 are only published in absolute figures and not in relative figures. See BMVBS documents regarding Transport Forecast Link: Docs/DE/Artikel/UI/verkehrsprognose-2025.html ( ). "Bahnreform" is the common abbreviation for the way of Germany's adoption of the rules of the EU to open the railway markets for competition. Rules 440/91 and the following like 1 st to 4 th Railway Packages.

32 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 23 services as they are more efficient than others, there is only little movement to substitute road based individual traffic. But even the small change of modal split given below can be evaluated as a real challenge. Today the infrastructural requirements of more rail services are not fulfilled, moreover the whole structure of the railway industry and service sector seem to have strong inefficiencies (quality, price, communication and so on) as the figures for Germany show. Obviously the customers yet do not feel to have a real alternative for road based passenger and freight services and today and in the future will prefer increasingly non-rail-based services (see e.g. Figure 5 and Figure 6 regarding Europe). Table 5 Freight Transport Forecast for Germany Absolute Modal split (%) +/ : 2004 Ø Distance (km) (Bln tkm) Total % % p.a Rail 91,9 151, Combined Transport Road long distance Rd. Short Distance 24,4 55, , ,9 28, Road total Inland Waterways Hinterland Transport ** 16.9** Total */71 3.5*/ Remark: * Total with road long distance. Grey figures: Not included in total amount. ** Shares calculated on total basis without road short distance transport. Source: Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau- und Wohnungswesen (Hrsg.): Prognose der deutschlandweiten Verkehrsverflechtungen 2025, München 2007, p.12ff. Link: 220/03/FE_96_857_2005_Verflechtungsprognose_2025_Gesamtbericht_ pdf ( ).

33 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 24 Table 6 Passenger Transport Forecast for Germany Motorized Transport Absolute Modal split (%) Change 2025 : 2004 (Bln pkm) Total % % p.a. Road Rail ,2 6, ,1 Tram, Bus , Air , ,5 3.6 Total Source: Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau- und Wohnungswesen (Hrsg.): Prognose der deutschlandweiten Verkehrsverflechtungen 2025, München 2007, p.6ff. Link: ( ). The meaning of tram and bus services is seen to decrease in future. This is a little bit astonishing so far as for many years it is obvious that a growing part of people prefer to live in urban agglomerations like Hamburg, Munich or Berlin and therefore leave their home. This trend produces a reduction of population especially in rural regions and as well should lead to a growing demand for public urban transport services. Yet this trend seems not to be considered. Figure 22 explains what the long-term expectations are regarding railbased passenger transports.

34 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 25 Figure 22 Rail Passenger Transport Forecast for Germany Bln pkm 100 6,7 7,0 7 Marketshare Rail (%) 50 72,6 91, Years 5 Rail Passenger (le.) Marketshare Rail (%) (ri.) Source: Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau- und Wohnungswesen (Hrsg.): Prognose der deutschlandweiten Verkehrsverflechtungen 2025, München Calculations: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy. Figure 23 Rail Freight Transport Forecast for Germany ,8 16, Bln tkm ,9 10 Marketshare Rail (%) 50 91, Years 0 Rail Freight (le.) Marketshare Rail (%) (ri.) Source: Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau- und Wohnungswesen (Hrsg.): Prognose der deutschlandweiten Verkehrsverflechtungen 2025, München Calculations: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy.

35 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 26 Basis for the illustrating Figure 22 are the following Table 5 and Table 6 regarding the forecast for passenger and freight services in Germany until 2025 in Figure 22. Due to small figures 2004 the relative change of air services until 2025 regarding passenger transports is the largest one. As already mentioned before regarding infrastructure the more challenging issue in future requirements is probably the freight topic. Freight services are expected to grow by ca % regarding to the forecast. Most demanding mode is the road sector as he will grow by about 84% up to 676 Billion tkm Rail freight services will increase by "only" 65% according to Table 5 and Figure Because the future growth of the rail freight sector will likely remain under average the future market share will decrease and this despite of all statements regarding required intermodal change for cost, traffic jam and ecology reasons, the potential of "green logistics" and so on. The expected market share for 2025 is 16.7%. This level is comparable to the market share of the past years (Figure 23). Besides the facts discussed here the forecasters in general expect a growing share of international respectively cross-border transports of all transports. This is including the premises of growing average transport distances (see Table 5) as one of the main drivers of the overall development. The content of Figure 24 is only available in German, but the message is clearly the meaning of inland transports (blue bar) in general will decrease. Whether this is the case for all kind of land transport modes or not, at least for the railway sector a different picture can be observed in the past years. Figure 24 Freight Transport on Main Corridors in Germany Source: BMVBS, Prognose der deutschlandweiten Verkehrsverflechtungen, München/Freiburg 2007, p.15. Link: clearingstelleverkehr.de/220/03/fe_96_857_2005_verflechtungsprognose _2025_Gesamtbericht_ pdf ( ). 18 The current version of the German "Investitionsrahmenplan" also considers the long-term target As the statements there are the same as in the official forecast paper, this document was neglected here.

36 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 27 In case of more cross-border transports of all modes in future this situation would make it probably necessary to (re)focus investments in dedicated corridors than being used intensively. Today there is no coherent infrastructure planning on the European level committing the member states effectively. Instead bilateral contracts between different states are the basis for mutual infrastructure development. Nevertheless Germany belongs to the member states which do not understand themselves obliged to realize such projects on schedule. At least for the railway there are about 12 projects between e.g. Switzerland (NEAT), Poland or Denmark with noteworthy delay due to missing funding. The thesis of a growing internationalisation of freight transports can be put into question at least for the railway sector. A common hypothesis of representatives of major market players is concerning the growing level of internationalisation of the rail freight sector in Germany respectively Europe (EU 27). Background is the idea that the market opening initiative of the EC and (already) the (current) steps of implementation are sufficient to revitalize the sector i.a. by increasing especially the international business (see Figure 2 and Figure 4 with contradicting messages). At least for Germany this result is not applicable yet. 19 The logic behind is the knowledge that growing intramodal competition on rail fosters both cross-border as well as inland transport market segments. Accordingly the proportion of inland and international transports is remaining nearly unchanged since two decades and amounts about 50% inland and 50% cross-border plus rail transit transport services. Especially the last ca. five years show a slight decrease in international transports. For more details see the following illustration. 20 Of relevance for the future capacity planning works is the question, where these growing transport volumes shall take place. It can be assumed that the current major corridors of the road and rail networks as well will have to bear most of the future transports. It is likely that this fact will aggravate the consequences of already existing bottlenecks on highways and railway corridors and major railway network nodes. One part of the strategy of DB Netz AG is to concentrate more transport on a fewer infrastructure. 21 This target will be supported regarding passenger services by the growing importance of the agglomerations accompanied by a sharp decline of the number of citizens especially in the less-densely populated Eastern regions of Germany The meaning of rail-based cross-border transports differs from country to country. Public statistics for Europe in this respect are not known. But for countries like Austria and Switzerland the meaning of crossborder transports is significantly higher than for Germany. E.g. in Italy cross-border rail transports have a comparably little significance. Nevertheless there are exceptions possible. DB AG states to have a 70% share in international transports. See Ute Plambeck, Deutsche Bahn AG - Nachhaltige Infrastruktur schaffen, Presentation, Hamburg, Link: ( ). See chapter

37 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 28 Figure 25 Rail Freight Transport on Main Corridors in Germany Rail Freight Transport (Bln tkm in %) 100% 50% 0% 10,2 10,5 10,1 10,1 10,6 10,2 11,4 10,7 11,3 11,1 9,8 10,4 40,9 42,4 42,0 41,6 42,3 43,6 42,0 42,1 41,8 40,5 38,5 38,8 48,9 47,1 47,9 48,3 47,1 46,2 46,5 47,2 46,9 48,4 50,8 50, Years Inland Cross-border Transit Source: Destatis, Series Calculations: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy. The freight sector is increasingly affected by the growing meaning of combined and seaport hinterland transports (in Germany at most operated by road and rail, at a lower extent by inland waterways). International and national transports of containers have in principle fixed starting and final destinations beside defined hub for interchange. According to this the infrastructure corridors being used are in most cases more or less the same. The expectations in future combined transports are far above average. Annual growth of combined transports is expected to be more than 6% per annum, hinterland transports shall even grow by 8% per year. The trend of a growing meaning of seaports regarding to the overall market development is not new. About 20% of total rail freight services 2010 did have their starting point or final destination in Hamburg and Bremen/Bremerhaven. This share of the market will significantly grow in future regarding to the current forecast for maritime business as the seaports will increase their freight handling business faster than the rest of the hinterland transport market segments. 22 This structural change of growth of rail freight transports primarily to take place on certain corridors has the consequence that other parts of the railway network probably become underutilized or worst case could be shut down in the long run. This effect can be observed in the railway sector already today. Here since many decades the network length is reduced nearly every year. The continued reduction of rail network means at the same time that many of the potential customers especially in the freight sector in fact will never have a chance to become customers of railway companies again (loss of sidings). They more or less are forced to continue organizing logistics with the help of truck forwarders or in case of a direct shut down of rail infrastructure these carrier have to arrange new logistic road-based logistic systems instead of the former rail-based one. 22 According to this planning work e.g. the future handling of containers in German seaports measured in standard containers (TEU) will more than quadruple from 2004 and 10.8 Million TEU up to 45.3 Million TEU until See BMVBS: Seeverkehrsprognose 2025, Link: ( ).

38 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 29 Due to cost and time expensive planning work to be done in German planning laws in advance of building a new railway line it is more than unlikely to attract carriers to prefer rail services in future even if they are located far-out the existing main railway routes. Considering these "administrative hurdles" together with an inadequate regulatory framework for private railway companies it can be summarized that the road sector will have enormous demands (probably more than today) regarding an adequate capacity offer on highways and replenishing federal roads. Comparably low the requirements of the rail sector may develop as this sector will grow in general but under average compared to the whole market. Moreover - according to status quo - the network structure will continuously change with i.a. a stronger focus on main routes and a focussed enlargement of capacities there.

39 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe Expectations in Sweden Looking at the domestic traffic in Sweden has passenger traffic increased annually by 0,8% in the road network and by 4.4% in the rail network during the period Compared with the official forecasts from the 1990s, it is interesting to see that the road did not grow as much as expected. Conversely, rail traffic in greater progress than anticipated, but after all, from a relatively low level. Table 7 Transport Sector Development in Sweden ton-km billion rail % road % person-km billion rail % road % Source: SCB. National freight transport flows increased during the period by 1.3 respectively 1.4% p.a. in the Swedish rail and road network. With a market share for rail by 35% Sweden is still one of the best class in Europe although the heavy ore rail transport explains a great deal of this performance. Figure 26 Swedish Freight Transport Development by Mode Source: Swedish transport capacity plan, Trafikverket Freight volume in tons transported in Sweden has for many years proved to be relatively stable. Transport performance in ton km is showing an upward trend due an increase in the average transport length increases. This is closely related to the character of Swedish industry which promotes economies of scale in production, just-in-time manufacturing and a steady growth in demand for small frequent shipments.

40 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 31 Figure 27 Freight and Passenger Transport Growth in Sweden Source: Swedish transport capacity plan, Trafikverket In the 1970s and 80s was the Swedish freight transport development slightly behind the passenger development. Since then, the need for freight transport has grown with the same upward trend although the financial crisis caused a temporary decline. Car usage dominates strongly. For passenger transport, there is a certain upper saturation point seems to be reached, since transportation choices distribution has been stable for a period. Figure 28 Mode Split in Swedish Transport, person km Source: SCB. Swedish Trafikverket has made a comparison of the predicted transport development and realized development. Growth in car traffic in the period was only half the expected, namely 13% instead of 29% as the forecast suggested. One explanation is that the number of persons per car decreased during this period. At the same time, rail traffic grew more than expected, while both bus and surprisingly domestic air traffic went back.

41 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 32 Figure 29 Transport Growth in Sweden , Forecasts and Realisation Source: Swedish Capacity and Efficiency investigation 2012, Trafikverket. Even for freight was produced a forecast for 2010, which was based on the volume of goods in 1997, measured in tonne-kilometres. The largest increase was noted for the railway, which increased by around 22%, which is double the rate of increase in the forecast. The figure also shows that the transport by sea not reached the projected increase. Tonnekilometres by truck fell 17% between 2008 and 2009 and have still not recovered. This meant that the truck traffic is still below the 1997 level. Accordingly to Trafikverket it is likely that the recovery of the truck traffic will take a few years. The deviation from the forecast should therefore be less if we compare it to a later year, and take account of the present strong economic growth. In the long perspective, there are now new forecasts available on the transport sector by Table 8 Long Term Development of Swedish Passenger Transport Person km (billion) Road % Railway % Public Transport (Bus) % Air % Cycle - walk % Total % Source: Swedish transport capacity plan, Trafikverket The forecast will increase the total passenger transport between 2006 and 2050 by 63 percent. Car travels will increase by 67% and travel by rail by 80%. The corresponding overall increase is 1.1 percent per year, the growth of car and rail traffic was a little bit higher with 1.2 and 1.3 percent per year. It reflects that walking and bike trips appear to be constant, but the other modes of transport increase the travel length except for the bus which loses its relative share.

42 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 33 Figure 30 Freight Transport Forecast for Sweden Source: Swedish Capacity and Efficiency investigation 2012, Trafikverket. As regards freight transport the Swedish Transport authorities have made forecast for Compared with base year 2006 is assumed freight transport performance increased by about 53 percent in total between 2006 and This forecast does not add as much necessary rail capacity for freight trains in order for this transport mode to develop without restrictions. This means that almost all the increase for 2050 is at sea and road. There is a 2050-scenario which shows the potential for railway freight with less capacity limitation on the rail network. This alternative gives a clear possibility to enhance the rail freight by 45% as can be seen below, although truck traffic and sea traffic seem to develop faster. Figure 31 Freight Transport Forecast for Sweden Source: Swedish Capacity and Efficiency investigation 2012, Trafikverket.

43 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe A North-South View into the Future Introducing Remarks The North-South View to the future done here in general comprises the analyses regarding the planning horizons 2030, 2025 and For 2030 there are official documents available to give a European framework in order to give an idea whether the relevant member states of the Baltic Region Denmark, Germany and Sweden can be evaluated as growth driver or as average performers. Some forecast work was also done by Fehmern AS for the planning horizon 2015 with an outlook Planning work is stated to be done mainly since 2003 in close cooperation between the Ministries of Transport of both countries, Denmark and Germany. This will be considered as well. Also a principle outlook covering the first 25 years of FBL daily business is possible as well. In 2009 FBL presented some details regarding the period from 2018 till They will be considered as well. As Germany is seen to be the most relevant logistics turntable within the EU 27 this country as well is also part of the relevant region regarding the North-South view to be done in this chapter. Please accordingly refer to chapter 2.2. One of the projects competing with FBL is the SoNorA. 23 This road and rail project is not considered here in detail as the regional focus (i.a. reflected by the available list of participants) as it concerns an Eastern German-Polish border region serving partly other geographical market segments and focuses operationally on the combined transport. Nevertheless some competition against FBL might be possible at least regarding transport flows starting/ending in the South of Sweden ending/starting especially in Middle and East European countries like Bulgaria or Hungary EU Transport Forecast Planning Horizon 2030 Firstly the EC provides general framework figures regarding the expected situation of EU passenger and freight transports in Regarding EU passenger transports of all modes it can be underlined that compared with the EU average the passenger transport sector of the member states Denmark, Germany and Sweden probably develops in a specific way. As Figure 32 shows the passenger transport of the mentioned countries will develop below average, in parts significantly lower. Until 2030 the overall market volume will increase by 85.2%, but in Germany a growth of "only" 75.3% is seen to be possible. Sweden might reach a plus of 69.1% and last but not least for Denmark the target figure is 46.4%. 24 As Figure 32 shows the general momentum of Swedish passenger transports is becoming stronger than of the Danish during the years 2010ff. So the final target values vary about a 50% difference of growth rates See the official website of the project ( ). The likelihood of this forecast cannot be discussed here. It is obvious that the premises being set are decisive. For Germany and probably other member states already since some years signals of saturation are given especially in the passenger transport sector.

44 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 35 Figure 32 Long-term Passenger Transport Forecast for Dedicated Countries - Denmark, Germany and Sweden for 2030 (Index 1990=100) 200 Mrd. pkm (1990=100) Years Development Passenger Tansport (Gpkm) EU 27 Development Passenger Transport DK Development Passenger Transport DE Development Passenger Transport SWE Source: European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy and Transport: European Energy and Transport - Trends to 2030, Update 2007, Brussels Figure and Calculations: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy. One of the interim conclusions is that is likely that the mentioned EU member states in the Baltic-Sea-Region will see an absolute market growth in passenger transports but they probably will not boost the development. The situation of the EU freight sector in total will be according to the cited forecast in some respect similar to the passenger transport sector. For more details see Figure 33. The future of passenger and freight transports will develop below EU average and the discussed countries can not be classified as parts of Europe boosting the transport sector. For all 27 measured EU countries the expected growth of freight transport of all modes will nearly double compared to the 1990 figures (+97.8%). The meaning of rail transport of all modes will increase in noteworthy way. For Sweden the forecast figure is +89.2% compared to Germany follows with +78.5% and Denmark with a plus of 77.4%. The spread of future target values for 2030 is not as strong as in the passenger sector. Remarkably moderate are the growth figures for Germany, again Sweden expects ambitious figures more than other states.

45 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 36 Figure 33 Long-term Freight Transport Forecast for Dedicated Countries - Denmark, Germany and Sweden for 2030 (Index 1990=100) 250 Mrd. tkm (1990=100) Years Development freight transport (Gtkm) EU 27 Development Freight Transport DK Development Freight Transport DE Development Freight Transport SWE Source: European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy and Transport: European Energy and Transport - Trends to 2030, Update 2007, Brussels Figure and Calculations: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy. Beside the result that the Baltic Region-based transport markets in the long run will perform under EU average a further structural difference is to be stressed. More than other countries rail passenger transport services are of importance for the regional development. Here the intermodal situation obviously is seen different to the EU's total view. Figure 34 shows that in general the EC expects relatively only less for the rail passenger sector in the coming decades. In the Baltic Region the estimation in future rail opportunities is much stronger. On the EU level there is only limited fantasy in future rail service. In comparison with 1990 a growth of only 43.6% is stated to be likely for Nevertheless the Baltic Region (here only Denmark, Germany and Sweden) have a strong view on this transport mode with a plus of 72.7%. Especially for Sweden the growth perspective shall be quite close to double the market volume (+91.9%). Germany is expected to develop close to the regional average due to his overwhelming market share Germany's share of the market region Baltic Region as defined her is about 85%.

46 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 37 Figure 34 Long-term Rail Passenger Transport Forecast for EU 27 and Baltic Region Countries for 2030 (Index 1990=100) 200 Mrd. pkm (1990=100) Years Rail Transport EU Rail Average Baltic Region Rail DK Rail DE Rail SWE Source: European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy and Transport: European Energy and Transport - Trends to 2030, Update 2007, Brussels Figure and Calculations: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy. Commonly the hope in the future performance of the rail freight service sector is significantly weaker as for passenger transports on rail. See the overview in Figure 35. Figure 35 Long-term Rail Freight Transport Forecast for EU 27 and Baltic Region Countries for 2030 (Index 1990=100) 200 Mrd. tkm (1990=100) Years Rail Transport EU 27 Rail Average Baltic Region Rail DK Rail DE Rail SWE Source: European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy and Transport: European Energy and Transport - Trends to 2030, Update 2007, Brussels Figure and Calculations: Hanseatic Transport Consultancy. For all 27 measured EU member states the expected development path of rail freight transport will only suffice to reach shares of the market of 1990 after the year As the Baltic Region average figure is strongly influenced by the in comparison very large

47 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 38 market volume a growth of 23.6% is expected for A significant higher growth is expected for Denmark 27 (+58.8%) and Sweden (+78.0%). To close the analysis of future transport developments and the inherent capacity requirements a brief view follows on the future distribution of intermodal shares of the market. Regarding passenger transport matters a step by step decrease of road transport is expected beginning in Until 2030 the decrease is expected to reach some 4%-points meaning for Germany a 76% market share (pkm), for Denmark 63% and for Sweden 67%. For EU in general the same market share for car-based mobility is forecasted as seen in In the freight area truck transports (tkm) will enhance his role in the market by raising its market share from 58% 1990 to 75% Rail is expected to decline to 7.5%. Absolute transport figures in 2030 will remain close to those of Transport Forecast for FBL 2043 In 2009 a hearing took place at the transport council of the German Federal Parliament. FTC commented on the expectations for the Fehmarnbelt link for the first 25 years of beginning of operation in 2018 (to be adjusted). The road sector is expected to grow by 1.7% per year compared with the historic development of an average growth of 3.8% per year Accordingly for 2043 about vehicles per day are forecasted. FBL as well expects rail transports to grow. The figures for 2043 are ~ passenger trains and ~ freight trains meaning about 58 passenger and about 63 freight trains per day. 28 See accordingly Figure National Forecast for the Belt link 2025 Relevant document regarding the single evaluation of the rail-based FBL hinterland connection is the " Überprüfung des Bedarfsplans" published by BMVBS at the end of General future expectations of this document are as follows. The statements given in the "Verflechtungsprognose" are with regard to content general guideline30 for the market participants and the revised demand requirements check ("Überprüfung des Bedarfsplans"). In comparison to former forecasts the expectations were modified. Besides quality issues one reason was a change of the statistical methodology which led to reasonable changes (see chapter 2.3.3). The "Integration" scenario for passenger transports was the official political lead scenario forecasting an overall annual growth rate between 1997 and 2015 of 1.0%. This rate was modified to 0.8% for the interval 2004 to As statistical figures regarding freight are of better quality the forecast results for 2015 remain very similar to Growth rate of the intervals and remains with 2.6% annual growth on the same level For Germany it can be asked, whether the figure are not too optimistic. In 2010 rail's share in the market was for the first time higher than in 1994 when the "Bahnreform" was getting started. This is somehow surprising as the former DSB rail freight business is now owned and operated by DB Schenker Rail (DB AG). Calculated on the basis of 250 traffic days per year. See BMVBS, Überprüfung des Bedarfsplans für die Bundesschienenwege, final report Nov. 2011, p.9-357ff (644ff). Link: ( ). See BMVBS documents regarding Transport Forecast Link: Artikel/UI/verkehrsprognose-2025.html ( ).

48 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 39 According to the single project evaluation method in the revising " Überprüfung des Bedarfsplans" the available figures of future transport development differ from those documented in other forecasts. For the road sector there are no figures available in general. In the revising document regarding the FBL the main assumption for rail transports is the complete availability of the required hinterland connections. Therefore the expected total number of long distance passenger (44) and freight trains (63) is 107 per day for 2025 and so far basis for the commercial evaluation of this investment project Transport Forecast of Fehmern AS 2015/2025 Core element of the North-South-Corridor is the FBL building and its road and rail hinterland connections. A lot of forecast work was done since 1999 on behalf of the FBL and the Transport Ministries of Transport of Denmark and Germany. The main results regarding the vehicle-based forecast have been published directly or had to be backward projected by the consultants. The early forecast of 2002 included two base cases "A" (favouring rail) and "B" (favouring road) describing the year For the base case "B" four scenarios (green/grey) were calculated which considered various levels of competition between the fixed crossing and the ferry sector. Figure 36 Road Vehicle Forecast for the FBL Road Vehicles / day Road Vehicles 2001 Forecast 1999 for 2010 Base Case A 2015 Base Case B 2015 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Base Case A 2025 low Base Case A 2025 high Base Case B 2025 low Base Case B 2025 high Outlook 2043 Source: FTC. Calculations Hanseatic Transport Consultancy. On the basis of German forecast documents for the year 2025 the base cases have been developed further with an optimistic and a pessimistic approach (blue, green). In the year 2009 a hearing took place in Berlin, where the FTC gave a draft picture of the expectation of the first 25 years of operation.

49 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 40 Depending on the mentioned various surrounding conditions the growth perspective differs. In principle a tripling of the number of road vehicles is expected in a time frame of about 40 years. Historic average growth rate of the road sector between 1970 and 2008 was +3.8% per year. The Fehmarn consortium expects the market to grow only by +1.7% per year from 2018 till Accordingly the annual figure is expected to increase from in 2018 up to vehicles (road + bus) in See accordingly Figure 36. Figure 37 shows for various planning horizons the expected development of trains per day on this corridor. Today only passenger trains run between Denmark and Germany using the ferry. In future total number of trains shall increase significantly because of the reintroduction of freight services which were closed down in the 1990ies. Depending on the assumptions for 2015 and/or 2025 the total figures vary between 90 and 110 trains per day. In case of the rail-optimistic base case "A" the figures might increase up to nearly 140 trains per day, accordingly the figures are lower in case of road-optimistic base case "B". See accordingly Figure 37. Compared to 2010 and 2015 with about trains per day, a growth potential of about 25% until 2043 is expected to be likely. The interpretation of these figures regarding bottlenecks and other capacity aspects will be examined in the following chapters. Figure 37 Rail Vehicle Forecast for the FBL Trains / day Rail Vehicles 2001 Forecast 1999 for 2010 Base Case A 2015 Base Case B 2015 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Base Case A 2025 low Base Case A 2025 high Base Case B 2025 low Base Case B 2025 high Outlook 2043 Source: FTC. Calculations Hanseatic Transport Consultancy. 31 Figures are to be adjusted in case of delays. Deduction of daily figures from annual figures divided by 250 traffic days per year.

50 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe Summary on General Infrastructure Topics The previous chapters in detail analysed some of the documents tackling with future expectations of the transport sector in the EU with a focus on Denmark, Germany and Sweden (Baltic Region). Here the growth perspectives are very positive but remain under average of the EU 27 member states in total. Primarily the EU freight sector is expected to grow significantly. This growth will be generated mostly by truck-based logistics. Rail is expected to grow but for 2030 the total figure of transport services (tkm) is expected to be only a little bit higher than in Logically the rail freight market share probably will continue to decrease. In contrast with the general market trend for 2030 in the EU 27, for the Baltic Region rail is expected to significantly regain meaning in the market. But it has to be stressed that the conditions assumed by the forecast experts in order to revitalise rail remained largely unarticulated. So it has to put attention to whether this kind of planning includes some "wishful thinking" or not. Also with relevance for the future of railway- and road-based transports is the level of cross-border business of the various modes. At least for the rail sector in Germany, one of the most important regional market segments of European railway business it has to be summarized that the level of international business is stagnating since a lot of years. This situation may include the circumstance that there is limited cross-border infrastructure capacity (e.g. Polish-German crossing at Horka) but at the same time it can be interpreted as indicator for a in principal failed market opening process with as hitherto mainly regional (national) markets (member states) each with dominating incumbents defending primarily each others historic home markets. 32 Nevertheless regarding to the long-term necessary reorganisation ("decarbonisation") of the whole transport and mobility industry it has to be emphasized that an according intermodal shift requires in advance huge investments in infrastructure to offer more ("slots") and better capacity (no traffic jams, "punctuality") to the market participants (road, rail, air, public transport). The requirements will be examined in detail in the following. 32 Exceptions are the Netherlands and Denmark: NS Cargo was sold to DB AG in 1999 (DB Cargo), DSB Freight division was sold to DB AG (Railion GmbH, former DB Cargo) in 2001.

51 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT AND BOTTLENECKS 3.1 Railway infrastructure With the enforcement of the FBL treaty, the German government guarantees to upgrade the hinterland infrastructure in accordance with the provisions of the treaty. Furthermore, the establishment of the fixed link across the Fehmarnbelt has been mentioned in the Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan (FTIP) as a project for strengthening the transport infrastructure in Europe. Also in the national planning for a coherent Danish Transport network, and the similar Swedish national long-term planning, the fixed link in the South-Western part of the Baltic Sea plays an important role. In the revised EU TEN-T guidelines under the new programme initiative "Connecting Europe" the FBL and the hinterland infrastructure constitutes a priority in the corridor (Helsinki-) Stockholm - Øresound - Fehmarn - Hamburg - Valetta (in Italy). See accordingly Figure 38. Figure 38 Fehmarn Belt Link According to TEN-T Source: The Trans-European Transport Networks "TEN-T": Fehmarn Belt Axis. Link: ( ).

52 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe Germany The railway map for the FBL currently available is principally of It considers the highspeed "Y-route" to continue the FBL between Hamburg / Bremen and Hannover. This infrastructure project at the moment is under strong discussion. The former dedicated highspeed line now shall solve capacity problems of seaport hinterland freight trains. Therefore the alignment has to be adjusted. CEO of DB AG, Rüdiger Grube, assured in Walsrode in January 2012 to investigate alternative routes in the same way as it was done regarding the "Y-route" in order to come to more efficient and cost-effective (mixed train operations) cost positions respectively capacity solutions especially for strong growing freight hinterland transports. In the meantime the statement not only was relativised by BMVBS but it was stressed the validity of the current infrastructure development projects General situation The general situation of rail infrastructure comprises actually three main elements: a) Overall decline of infrastructure supply (tracks, marshalling yards, sidings, passenger and freight stations, locomotive parking lots, passing lanes). The reductions here have been continued after the "Bahnreform", begun in 1994 with the founding of DB AG (fusion of Deutsche Bundesbahn (DB) and Deutsche Reichsbahn (DR)): Network length -18.4% Passenger stations -34.0% Crossings and switches -51.9% Sidings -68.7%. b) Growing demand for train paths with at the same time growing transport service figures (pkm and tkm) and c) The railway network is becoming more inflexible and less capable. 34 This situation counteracts the political target to substitute road by rail transports more successfully than in the past. Due to the drastic reduction of sidings and network routes a lot of medium-sized cities are no longer directly linked to the long-distance passenger trains network and production and logistics companies can use rail in fact only by using combined transports. This market segment has only little margins and most of the market participants do not earn money here. The likelihood to gain customers back by rebuilding new infrastructure (sidings) is very limited in relation to potential total market volume. Figure 39 shows in detail the main structural changes. One result of the parallel trends of growing utilisation and declining network is a noteworthy number of bottlenecks already today. Since 1998 also the use of the networks is being published. Until 2010 the sum of "train path kilometres" was increased by 9.2%. Figure 40 illustrates the sidewise development of the demand of train path kilometres since See See Deutscher Bundestag, Alternativen zur Y-Trasse, Antwort der Bundesregierung auf die Kleine Anfrage der Abgeordneten Dr. Valerie Wilms, Sven-Christian Kindler, Dorothea Steiner, weiterer Abgeordneter und der Fraktion BÜNDNIS 90/DIE GRÜNEN - Drucksache 17/ Drucksache 17/8750, Link: ( ). Doubtless in general the network's length and structure has to follow the needs of the markets like closing down the mining plants in the Rhine-Ruhr-Region or the economy restructuring of the whole East German national economy. This may explain to a certain extent the continuous giving up of rail infrastructure. But up to date this process is continued instead of surely necessary future shifts of transports towards rail or other highly energy-efficient transport modes.

53 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 44 Figure 39 Basic Developments of Rail Infrastructure of DB AG Network Length Crossings and Switches Stations Sidings Source: DB AG, Daten und Fakten, various volumes. Figure 40 Use of Railway Network Infrastructure of DB AG Mio. Trkm Source: DB AG, Daten und Fakten, various volumes.

54 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe Principle infrastructure use As Figure 41 shows most of the bottleneck today are already on the strategic mostly relevant North-South-Corridor: Rhine-Corridor Karlsruhe - Basel, the Rhine-Hessian-Region (node Frankfurt), railway node Würzburg, corridor Göttingen - Kassel and the nodes in North Germany, Bremen/Bremerhaven, Hamburg and Hannover. The distribution of bottlenecks already now causes disturbances on the major North- South- and East- West-Corridors. The freight trains from/to Rotterdam are suffering from capacity shortcomings and noise problems along the Rhine Corridor and the supply of the East European countries via Rotterdam or Antwerp is affected by traffic jams at the node of Hannover. It's the same with the rapidly growing hinterland transports of the German seaports like Bremerhaven or Hamburg. Figure 41 Current Railway Network Bottlenecks in Germany Source: DB AG. The future growth of train path demand will not cover the whole network but challenge mainly those corridors already being short of capacity today. Figure 42 illustrates in principle the growing line diameter (reflecting the increasing train path figures) especially on the North-South- and the East-West-corridors. Other parts of the network like e.g. trunk routes in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, in Thüringen or other Eastern regions are in danger to be closed down due to reduced use through local passenger trains caused by decreasing pupil figures. Whether the strategy of reduced infrastructure (Figure 39) which is used more intensively still works in the long run has to be left open. An enhancement from four-

55 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 46 to six-track or two- to four-track lines is in many respect not imaginable (critical nodes, space and noise problems, urban development and so on). Also such a super-efficient system does need a fall-back-option (bypasses, parallel lines) to ensure capability even in case of accidents or failures. Figure 42 Main Train Path Corridors of the German Railway Network? Source: DB AG. Display 2025 HTC. Most recent figures allow the measurement of network utilisation for (see accordingly Figure 43). Many of the important railway nodes like Hamburg, Bremen, Hannover, Frankfurt, Mannheim, the Cologne-Düsseldorf area, Karlsruhe, Stuttgart, Munich and Nuremberg are already intensively used with train figure per year of more than 100,000 units (black lines). Also some routes between those important nodes like Düsseldorf - Hannover, Bremerhaven - Bremen - Hannover, Kassel - Frankfurt and so on) are more or less critical regarding capacity reserves for future growth of train operations. In comparison with the total network utilisation figures for the critical role of capacity shortcomings in main nodes and on the important corridors becomes evident highlighting the necessity of capable parallel bypasses. Beside the current main corridors (dark blue) e.g. shown in Figure 41 the meaning of bypasses (pale blue) increased significantly with only five years. From the consultants perspective this is a clear signal for capacity problems on main North-South-Corridors and re-routing especially of freight trains on secondary lines and/or loop ways and a strong argument to favour a multi-corridor concept what allows intensively utilized railway lines and parallel routes at the same time in order to safeguard a capable offer to the markets largely independent from accidents and other incidents See Destatis, Eisenbahnverkehr, Betriebsdaten des Schienenverkehrs 2010, Series 8, File R.2.1, Wiesbaden Link: /Fachveroeffentlichungen/Verkehr/PersonenverkehrSchienenverkehr/BetriebsdatenSchienenverkehr ,property=file.pdf ( ). See Destatis, Eisenbahnverkehr, Betriebsdaten des Schienenverkehrs 2006, Series 8, File R.2.1, Wiesbaden Link: ( ).

56 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 47 Figure 43 Total Network Utilisation of German Rail Network 2010 Source: Destatis, Eisenbahnverkehr, Betriebsdaten des Schienenverkehrs 2010, Series 8, File R.2.1, Wiesbaden 2011, p.6. Link: Publikationen/Fachveroeffentlichungen/ Verkehr/PersonenverkehrSchienenverkehr/BetriebsdatenSchienenverkehr ,property=file.pdf ( ).

57 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe General infrastructure and capacity situation in northern Germany The triangle Bremen/Bremerhaven, Hannover and Hamburg and its available capacity is of strategic meaning not only for the German Seaports already mentioned but as well for the "transit" flows from/to Denmark, the seaports of Schleswig-Holstein (Kiel, Lübeck) and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Rostock, Wismar, Sassnitz). See the according Figure 44. All long-distance train operations between the triangle nodes take place on electrified routes. With 162/3Hz and 15kV the energy supply is different to the Danish system with 50Hz and 25kV. Figure 44 Rail Infrastructure Use 2010 Directly to FBL Hinterland Connections Source: Destatis, Eisenbahnverkehr, Betriebsdaten des Schienenverkehrs 2010, Series 8, File R.2.1, Wiesbaden 2011, p.13. Link: Verkehr/PersonenverkehrSchienenverkehr/BetriebsdatenSchienenverkehr ,property=file.pdf ( ).

58 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 49 Regarding to former investigations done by capacity planning and simulation consultants in 2008, 37 the line Hamburg - Lüneburg is used with an utilisation level of 130%. 38 The capacity of the whole corridor Hamburg - Bremen and Bremen - Hannover was used between 100% and 130%. So far the triangle is not well prepared to provide hinterland capacity for freight trains required by the mentioned seaports according to their forecasted business development plans. Seaport related train operations are of high relevance for the seaports. The share of goods handled in the port and transported via rail from and to the port of Hamburg is of more than 30%. A further 20% is of local meaning (refining, finishing, ) moved by road. In total there are more than 210 trains per day transporting containers plus trains moving bulk like grain, coal, iron ore etc. Of considerable meaning for the Danish-German cross-border rail freight transport flows is the corridor Hamburg - Neumünster - Rendsburg - Flensburg/Padborg. Between Hamburg and Neumünster this corridor is used by more than trains per year, the remaining part of the routes covers some trains per year. Yet the current number of freight trains there is not published by DB AG, but estimated figures of the consultants are between 60 ad 70 freight trains per day. One of the critical parts of this corridor is the railway bridge located in Rendsburg crossing the Kiel Canal. The bridge is 42m high and of metal construction. It was built in 1911/1913 and is not in good condition i.a. because of delayed maintenance works now being executed since a couple of years. Main remaining problem was the limited capability of this bridge regarding current requirements of heavy loaded freight trains (on this corridor often to be seen due to Swedish paper transports). Maximum axle load today is 22.5t, at the beginning of the last century it was about 18t axle load. For that reason the bridge and the belonging ramps are to be refurbished for track class D4 (meter load is 8.0t) single track and D2 (meter load is 6.4t) double track operation. During the construction works expected to be finalized in 2013 the whole bridge actually allows only single track train operations. Within the railway node of Hamburg the marshalling yard of Maschen is of highest operational importance. Most of the freight trains are starting respectively ending at the port of Hamburg use that facility. The limited capacity of the total node influences the capability of Maschen. Figure 45 shows the current infrastructure situation of the Hamburg node. The marshalling yard Maschen is located in the south of the city of Hamburg. The facility is connected via dedicated tracks for freight trains with Hamburg-Harburg, where freight trains coming from the South can enter the Western part of the port of Hamburg via the double-track Hamburg-Neugraben crossing. Trains coming from the North have to change direction in Maschen before they run towards Port of Hamburg-West. The freight train tracks led freight trains directed to Northern Europe via "Oberhafen"-Bridge and the single track section in Hamburg-Wandsbek. This bottleneck reduces the capacity significantly IVE in Hannover. As the train figures today are already on the level before the crisis, their judgements are still valid. A utilisation level >100% is possible because of e.g. postponed maintenance works. This is only possible by neglecting the maintenance demands as done here regularly by DB Netze AG.

59 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 50 and causes delays. In order to keep punctuality and flexibility high some sidings to park trains were erected during the last years at Hamburg-Tiefstack. Second major bottleneck within Hamburg is Hamburg central station which for freight train operations is only indirectly of relevance as freight trains usually do not use the "Verbindungsbahn" to Hamburg-Altona on their way to Schleswig-Holstein respectively Denmark via Padborg. Instead freight trains have to run via Hamburg-Wandsbek to Hamburg- Eidelstedt via the single track "Güterumgehungsbahn" (dashed red in Figure 45) which is of very limited capacity. Third major bottleneck within the Hamburg rail way node is the crossing of Hamburg Harburg ("Lower-Elbe-Crossing") with the passenger station and huge (mixed passenger and freight) train crossings (North-South, East-West) on the same track level. The capability of this crossing is essential for the whole port as all trains serving the western and/or the eastern part of the port have to pass that node. Other shortcomings within the node are known but of lower meaning. E.g. all the freight trains coming from the North to enter the Eastern part of the Port (station Hamburg- Wilhelmburg) have to cross passenger tracks on equal level, a fact which causes stop times for other trains of about 10 minutes each. Figure 45 Railway Node of Hamburg Remark: Line Central Station - Rahstedt (- Lübeck) already electrified (red coloured instead of black by HTC). Source: Eisenbahn-Atlas Deutschland digital Infrastructure and capacity situation on the corridor Hamburg-Puttgarden This corridor can be divided into two principle segments: i) Segment Hamburg - Lübeck and ii) Segment Lübeck - Puttgarden. The route between Hamburg and Lübeck is 85 km

60 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 51 long. On the basis of planning works started in the year 2000 it was published in 2005 by DB AG to electrify this route. This announcement was realized during the years 2006 and Total investment for electrification was 165 Million Euro. The travel time could be reduced by 5 minutes to 40 minutes. 39 The central station of Lübeck was modernized at the same time. The station is seen to be the most important one in Schleswig-Holstein with about passengers per day. Today regional and long distance passenger trains run regularly between both cities. Regional trains run every 30 minutes during main transport time 40 completed with a 5 ICE train pairs running every 4 (2) hours. With about 210 train pairs per day running between Hamburg and Lübeck the corridor in principal has no capacity reserves. 41 Main step to enable the route Hamburg - Lübeck to match with growing requirements of the transport markets including FBL is the new-built of tracks between Hamburg and Bad Oldesloe. On February 28 th, 2012 two offices had been authorized to do the pre-planning work (value 2.5 Million Euro) within the next 12 months. The results will be basis for negotiations of distribution of cost, financial sourcing and so on between Hamburg, Schleswig- Holstein and the Federal government of the 350 Million Euro project. 42 The realisation of this project is expected to take place as of As far as known the preferred layout is a separate double track enhancement for the S4- trains between Hamburg-Hasselbrook and Ahrensburg including some improvements on the route and five new stations for the suburban railway. The improvement regarding train path capacity can not be measured actually as the final layout of the route and the train operating program still have to be fixed. Especially with regard to the freight train figures for 2025 published by DB AG early the IHK Lübeck recommended i.a. a four-track alignment of the total route between both cities and a significant improvement with reference to capacity supply within the nodes of Lübeck and Hamburg See Elektrifizierte Bahnstrecke Hamburg-Lübeck eingeweiht, Hamburger Abendblatt, Link: Luebeck-eingeweiht.html ( ). Period on labour days: 06:00-21:00. See Hansestadt Lübeck, ISEK IntegriertesStadtEntwicklungsKonzept, 2009, p.139. Link: ( ). See Vorplanung für S4 nach Bad Oldesloe beginnt, Nahverkehr Hamburg, Link: ( ). See Finanzierungsgespräche über S4 Hamburg - Bad Oldesloe - weitere Schritte vereinbart. Joint press release of Ministerium für Wissenschaft, Wirtschaft und Verkehr des Landes Schleswig-Holstein and Hamburg, Behörde für Wirtschaft, Verkehr und Innovation, Link: /siteprint.php?site=news&news_id=2195 ( ). First forecast was 150 freight trains, second forecast was 78 freight trains for See Beltbrücke bringt Stormarn nur wenig, Hamburger Abendblatt-Ahrensburger Zeitung, These figures have been withdrawn after signing the Danish-German treaty. See IHK Lübeck, Entwicklung der Verkehrsinfrastruktur auf der Achse Hamburg - Puttgarden im Zuge einer festen Fehmarn-Beltquerung, 2009, p.85ff. Link: ( ).

61 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 52 Some years ago the City of Lübeck published a report dealing with shortcomings of local railway routes. 46 For 2015 the existing capacity will probably not cover the expected demand situation which does not include possible transport increases caused by FBL. See Figure 46 showing the expected figures of train paths per day. The capacity of Lübeck central station is declared with 11 trains per hour and direction. The capacity here should be sufficient enough for satisfying operations in the range mentioned above. Precondition is that delays or deviations from the planned schedule are being avoided. Figure 46 Expected Train per Day Paths of Lübeck Railway Node 2015 Source: IHK Lübeck, Entwicklung der Verkehrsinfrastruktur auf der Achse Hamburg - Puttgarden im Zuge einer festen Fehmarn-Beltquerung, 2009, p.84. Link: ( ). As far as known there are no more current investigations available regarding the capability of the node of Lübeck in total. But in general with growing train figures the section Bad Schwartau station - Lübeck central stations will become critical first. Public passenger transports between Kiel and Lübeck had been intensified during the last years. Actually there is a 30 minute schedule with diesel light-weight trains which requires regularly train path capacity between Bad Schwartau and Lübeck central station as well. Moreover the port of Lübeck now is connected with the hinterland via a new electrified double track line instead of the former single track one. So it has to be considered that in future there will be a reasonable increase of transport volume run by trains from/to the port of Lübeck. Within the mentioned section passenger (Kiel - Lübeck) and freight trains (Lübeck - Hinterland) in future will have to share the limited capacity with the node with trains of FBL. 46 See accordingly IHK Lübeck, Entwicklung der Verkehrsinfrastruktur auf der Achse Hamburg - Puttgarden im Zuge einer festen Fehmarn-Beltquerung, 2009, p.84.

62 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 53 The official seaport forecast for 2025 expects the port of Lübeck to grow significantly. Total handling volume 2025 is expected to amount to 64.4 Million t. 47 The hinterland transport shall grow by +5.4% per year (conventional freight) and +2.9% (combined transport). According to documents of DB AG 48 the total number of freight trains per day was 42, about 50% conventional and ~50% combined transport. This total amount is expected to grow by +138% until That leads to 100 trains per day of which some 60% is of conventional and 40% of combined freight (container). Figure 47 Calculated Train Path Capacity per Hour of Lübeck (including Capacity Enhancement Hamburg - Lübeck) Source: See Figure 46. Third and last segment of the FBL corridor in Germany is the corridor Lübeck - Puttgarden. Figure 48 shows the current situation (red line). The route has a length of 88 km, it is single track non electrified und allows trains to run 120 km/h. Most of the major seaside resorts of the Ostholstein administration area ("Lübeck Bay") are connected with the rail hinterland network. Many tourists have the choice to take comfortable rides per car or to go by train. Most of them prefer to go by car and public transport is already of reduced meaning See BMVBS, Prognose der deutschlandweiten Verkehrsverflechtung - Seeverkehrsprognose 2025, 2007, Los 3, Anlagenband zum Endbericht, p.a-96. Link: ( ). See DBAG, Masterplan Schiene Seehafen-Hinterland-Verkehr, 2007, p.9. See the according hints at Kreis Ostholstein, "Betroffenheitsanalyse Schienenhinterlandanbindung" in Folge des Baus einer festen -Querung, 2009, p.159. Link: phtml? La=1&sNavID= &mNavID= &object=tx &kat=&kuo=1&sub=0 ( ).

63 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 54 Figure 48 Current Situation of the Railway Route Lübeck - Puttgarden Source: DB AG.

64 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 55 As the region is of strong agricultural structure (as well as tourism) there are many bridges and level crossings to ease e.g. the daily care of the agrarian plants. The requirements of the farmers will be negatively affected by growing train figures if there is no adequate solution available for future railway crossing by bridge or tunnel. 50 Due to higher operational requirements and the obligations of the Danish-German treaty the route shall developed further. In May 2010, the Federal State of Schleswig-Holstein decided to carry out a regional planning procedure ("Raumordnungsverfahren") for the rail linkage of the FBL. The Ministry of Interior Affairs of Schleswig-Holstein is responsible for the regional planning procedure. All alternative routes included in the documents 51 are to be considered and evaluated during this procedure. A real high-speed line (Vmax >230 km/h) which in fact would be significantly separated from the existing line is not part of the planning procedure. All alternative routes being part of the "Raumordnungsverfahren" are in most cases close to the existing line. There are as well alternative lines which had been designed by DB AG already in At that time nine alternatives existed which were more or less described in detail and tagged with cost estimations. Three of them were assigned for future discussions. During an investigation on behalf of the county administration of Ostholstein 52 a fourth alternative was elaborated and was amended to the official planning documents. Figure 49 shows the remaining three alternatives of DB AG ("A", "1A", "E"), the so called "X"-route (green line) designed within the mentioned project and the existing route (blue line). The deciding argument for the "X"-line was the general political and functional result gained in that project, that socially more acceptable alternatives are possible than those presented by DB AG. 53 The "X"-line was designed in order to minimize noise annoyances of the inhabitants along that North-South-Corridor German law foresees that maintenance cost for bridges ("quite" passing of trains) have to be born by local administrations; for bridges ("loud" passing of trains) DB AG would have to pay the according bills. See Land Schleswig-Holstein, Raumordnungsverfahren zur Schienenhinterlandanbindung der festen querung, Link: blob=publicationfile.pdf ( ). See Kreis Ostholstein, "Betroffenheitsanalyse Schienenhinterlandanbindung" in Folge des Baus einer festen -Querung, 2009, p.9. Link: NavID= &object=tx &kat=&kuo=1&sub=0 ( ). With a brief description DB Netze AG, Raumordnungsverfahren Schienenhinterlandanbindung Feste querung (FBQ), Erweitertes Handout, Gesamtunterlage zur Antragskonferenz zum Raumordnungsverfahren gemäß 14a Abs.1 Landesplanungsgesetz (LaPlaG), , p.11ff. Link: erweitertes handout/data.pdf ( ).

65 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 56 Figure 49 Alternatives Routes of the Lübeck - Puttgarden - Corridor Source: Land Schleswig-Holstein, Raumordnungsverfahren zur Schienenhinterlandanbindung der festen - Fehmarnbeltquerung, Link: blob=publicationfile.pdf ( ).

66 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe Denmark The overall target of the infrastructure improvement is to match the requirements of the treaty including an electrified, double track railway line and speed Vmax <160 km/h for passenger trains and for freight trains Vmax <120 km/h. According to the rules of the infrastructure manager in charge DB AG the "new" line will be classified as "M160". Therefore line adjustments are necessary to reach Vmax without tilting technology. Railway lines belonging to the TEN-T have to apply ETCS Level 2 at least but also will have to use national signalling components like PZB-90 signalling and so called combination signals ("KS-Signale"). Beside this the whole TSI rules have to be applied as well (e.g. stations). One important element of the layout of the line is the maximum train length of 835 m for freight trains. This rule is different to the common standards of the whole network of DB AG (West (DB); 750 m, East (DR): 600 m) and trains so far have to be splitted at the latest in Hamburg-Maschen under the precondition that the whole corridor Hamburg - Puttgarden has been adopted before. The necessary total investment for the rail-based link of the FBL is currently under discussion. According to official documents total investment will amount 817 Million Euro. 54 The out-dated cost estimations were criticized by the Federal Board of Audit ("Bundesrechnungshof") in April , this organisation expected the cost to increase by ca. 60%. As the FBL hinterland linkage has been declared to be part of TEN-T high-speed priority projects the EU will support this project during the years 2007 and 2013 with about 339 Million Euro. 56 The railway stretches in Denmark had its greatest extent in 1930, but in the period , 40% of railway lines closed. The network now has a length of 2,600 km, which is 5% less than 10 years ago. Among other railway lines Nykøbing F-Gedser closed recently. But there are also built new rail lines, and on the old ones are 40% of level crossings closed or replaced by bridges. There is however a huge refurbishment and revitalization program to be done in the coming years, because capacity is scarce in the network and infrastructure must be expanded, with the number of train starts to come into conflict. Never has the traffic been greater on the lines than now, and transported volumes measured in passenger kilometres and tonne kilometres have never been greater (Figure 50) The price basis is 1998 which was updated in See BMVBS, Überprüfung des Bedarfsplans für die Bundesschienenwege, final report Nov. 2011, p.9 (1-2) and 7-2 (181). Link: ( ). In case of construction begin later than 2014 total cost will increase to 907 Million Euro. Total cost for the hinterland corridor enhance can amount to 1.7 Billion Euro including the S4 investments. See Bericht an den Rechnungsprüfungsausschuss des Deutschen Bundestages vom 21. Januar 2010 zum Bericht des Bundesrechnungshofes nach 88 Abs. 2 BHO über die feste Verbindung über den mit Hinterlandanbindung vom 30. April 2009, p.3. Link: pdf ( ). Current cost-benefit-ratio is 6.7. See Rechnungshof sieht Risiken, Fehmarnsches Tageblatt, Link: ( ). See Staatsvertrag über die Feste querung unterzeichnet, German Federal Government press release, Link: Laender/012/t6-feste-querung.html ( ).

67 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 58 Figure 50 Rail Passenger (left) and Freight Flows (right) in Denmark Source: Banedanmark, If one takes a closer look at passenger and freight flows, it is especially in the metropolitan area that rail transport has a large market impact, which is also the case in the east-west corridor. For passenger traffic can be seen a great integration with Sweden across Øresound, but no great traffic to the south, i.e. to Schleswig and to Fehmarn / Holstein. For freight transport dominates the German-Swedish traffic passing through the Great Belt and down through Jutland to Northern Schleswig. When the Fehmarnbelt link will open in 2020, freight trains are scheduled to have a 160 km shorter route Hamburg-Copenhagen. The number of trains in the coming years will be expanding in order to meet an increase in passenger and freight demand. The number of trains will also be expanding due to the general transport policy that transport by rail expected to double in 20 years. Some of the demand can be managed through longer trains with more seating capacity, but there is a customer expectation about a doubling of frequency on a number of rail lines. The simple concept for better trains is more frequent and faster service, which in turn requires more capacity. See accordingly Figure 51.

68 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 59 Figure 51 Capacity Utilization 2010 Source: Ministry of Transport, Future Transport On many rail lines there is no more capacity left in order to run more frequent or faster trains. In the coming years, this situation will tighten in particular on Zealand. Bottlenecks on the rail network include, for example the rail section between Copenhagen and Ringsted, which is in construction phase by adding two new tracks opening in 2018, the rail section Roskilde-Holbæk, which is also undergoing a track doubling, the rail section Copenhagen Central-Copenhagen Airport, which is in the need for new track and new platforms. The illustration above is not showing a capacity problem on the south railway line between Vordingborg, the Storstrømmen Bridge and Rødby, where the line is now single track. Previously, this line had a more critical classification as international freight traffic used this route, but this traffic is routed today via the Great Belt. When most of the freight, which is growing significantly in these years, returning in 2020, a single track Storstrømmen Bridge poses a serious bottleneck in the international corridor. These challenges will be dealt with below.

69 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 60 Copenhagen-Ringsted The new Copenhagen-Ringsted line consists of a main section of 55 km that does not include the approach lines to Copenhagen and Ringsted station. These small sections of 5 km are managed under their own construction program and will be finalized well before the main section opens in Figure 52 New Rail Line Copenhagen-Ringsted Source: Banedanmark, From Copenhagen to the west / southwest, there are currently 2 main tracks to Roskilde. In parallel is the S-train line that is completely separated and also double tracked. In the direction towards Køge are S-trains running on the double track line along the coast. The new path to Ringsted adds extra 2 main tracks. The complete line will be equipped with existing traffic management systems in order to have the present train fleet to running at the new line at an allowed max speed of 200 km/h, but the line will also be equipped with the new ETCS-II. For maximum operational flexibility it is possible to run trains in from or out on existing lines at Køge North / Køge stations. Connection to Øresound/Sweden There is in the current construction phase not included a fly-over by the connection of the new high-speed railway line in Ny Ellebjerg which constitutes a major problem. This means that the line is underused because trains in different directions at this intersection will slow each other, resulting in delay time. Further, it is difficult to run trains between Roskilde and Airport after opening of the new line. If capacity should be utilized more efficiently, it is absolutely necessary to supplement railway junction Ny Ellebjerg with a fly-over at its northern end.

70 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 61 Figure 53 The Ny Ellebjerg Junction Source: Level crossing analysis Atkins/ TU-Denmark, and IBU capacity project 2010 (Vectura). The approach line to the Øresound link has also other weak points, the largest be the station at Copenhagen Airport. As part of the law package for the Fehmarnbelt hinterland infrastructure it has been decided to start a plan approval process for expanding capacity on the Øresound line through the station at Copenhagen Airport. Background for this is a bottleneck situation caused by too little station capacity for passenger trains and difficulties due to an increase in operations of freight trains between Germany and Sweden. Figure 54 Capacity Improvement on the Øresound Line at the Station of Copenhagen Airport Source: Danish Railway Authority, Banedanmark 2011 (Environmental Impact Assessment, technical part). There are different alternatives in discussion. A fly-over solution is representing the most costly solution, but does not give optimal capacity improvement. It would be wise to direct freight trains from Denmark to Sweden through the existing station. In the other direction it is not necessary. Looking at a longer perspective with a new fixed HH-link across Øresound, or another long lasting solution, it could relieve the present Øresound line. The station must optimize capacity utilization in order to accommodate for an introduction of highspeed trains Sweden-Denmark-Germany in 2020.

71 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe Figure The Bypass Line Built as a Fly-over at the Crossing of Øresound Highway and Øresound Railway at Copenhagen Airport Source: Banedanmark (Environmental Impact Assessment, technical part). Other actions on the Øresound railway line, which today has been declared overloaded (in terms of lacking capacity) are also necessary in the long perspective. Studies have been conducted regarding the possibility to expand the Ørestad station by adding a new platform, and with a 3rd and 4th track. This will be difficult to avoid, if transport should be doubled in Connection from Ringsted to the Fehmarn Belt Link The main capacity problem on Zealand is solved with the new railway Ringsted-Copenhagen. Fast trains will have priority on the new line, while the existing will be relieved giving more space for regional and freight trains. From Ringsted to the tunnel (Rødby) the railway line will be upgraded, electrified and fully equipped with ETCS-II and rebuild to double track - except for the passage of the Storstrømmen Bridge, which is undergoing separate investigations. The railway line is according to the ongoing planning act intended to be decided in details in order for the section to be in full operation in The standard is most likely to be decided for 200 km/h. The Ringsted-Vordingborg stretch does not constitute a capacity constraint as such. But the new ETCS-system and the total line upgrade will improve capacity from From Vordingborg to Rødby the line today does not provide the capacity for future traffic, and therefore the line will be upgraded. This implies as minimum an extra track and some overtaking tracks (freight) on the 64 km line, if the crossing of Storstrømmen is included. The construction of the double track is sectionized Orehoved-Holeby, and from Holeby south the new line will be part of the Fehmarn Belt link. Between Vordingborg and Orehoved the main challenge is the Storstrømmen bridge.

72 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 63 Figure 56 The Upgrading Project Ringsted-Rødby Source: Banedanmark, A weak point in the Danish rail corridor Øresound-Fehmarn is the existing single tracked Storstrømmen Bridge. Transport scientists e.g. TU-Denmark and a number of research institutions have pointed at the need to enhance capacity by building a new link across Storstrømmen. Inspections of the bridge have now revealed severe wear. At the same time it is feared that the life time of the bridge will be dramatically affected and reduced when the operation of the Fehmarn Belt (freight) traffic begins. Therefore it has top-priority to find a solution as soon as possible. Due to a political agreement at national level investigations of 5 technical alternatives for a new crossing are underway. The studies include the following alternatives: I. A major renewal of the existing bridge, i.e. the existing single track and 2 lane road II. A major renewal, but only railway modernized and the road section closed III. New railway bridge, the existing bridge is kept for car traffic IV. New railway bridge, the existing bridge ends its days for traffic V. New combined railway and road bridge, the existing bridge ends its days for traffic.

73 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 64 The specifications at the moment indicate a design solution for 200 km/h for passenger trains and 120 km/h for freight according to the investigation program. The schedule is to finalize technical and environmental investigations, as well as the planning and decision process in order to re-build the Storstrømmen Bridge or to open a new link in The traffic across the Fehmarn Belt will from that time be able to flow unhindered. Figure 57 New Bridge across Storstrømmen Sweden Source: Banedanmark 2012, illustration from ongoing investigations. The schedule is to finalize technical and environmental investigations, as well as the planning and decision process in order to re-build the Storstrømmen Bridge or to open a new link in The traffic across the Fehmarn Belt will from that time be able to flow unhindered. During the '90s was the main railway network in Sweden renovated and upgraded, so that the technical standard was brought up-to-day, and great progress was actually reached with the main lines step by step upgraded to 200 km/h and where the train fleet offers a relatively good level of service. Sweden belongs to the countries with the largest degree of electrification, and puts emphasis on sustainability principles in the planning of infrastructure investment. Transport for both freight and passengers is of relatively little environmental impact compared with other modes. But major parts of the network is now suffering of capacity problems, as traffic has increased >60% in 15 years. Although this may be seen as positive problems, they give a picture of the growing challenges for the sector. A calculation of the congestion situation on the railway lines in 2030 indicates the need for investment in infrastructure, if there actually be realized a growth track in the future of Swedish railways. Statistics for a number of main lines can tell that punctuality and reliability leaves much to be desired. There are several sections where only 75% of trains arrive on time, and this performance has been fairly unchanged in recent years. It is explained that the main reason for this is the increase of freight and commuter trains.

74 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 65 The prospect of rail to take a larger share of the transport market growth has therefore established a number of proposals for strengthening the rail infrastructure. This means that the passive projection of capacity utilization for 2030 with indication of major congestion problems ahead may change for the better. In the following we shall mainly concentrate on the southern part of Sweden. See accordingly Figure 58. Figure 58 Rail Congestion in the Swedish Main Network, Forecast 2030 Source: Swedish Capacity and Efficiency investigation 2012, Trafikverket. In the Scania region in southern Sweden, there has been a long series of major challenges to the modernization of the rail system. First and foremost represents the completion and opening of the City tunnels and the new underground station an important supplement to the existing dead-end station, which has also been modernized. Overall, capacity of the node Malmö C thereby has increased significantly. On the main route up north on the west coast line is there a single track section from Helsingborg to Båstad. Here the 9 km long tunnel through Hallandsåsen constitutes a decisive improvement. From the current track with a max speed of 80 km/h to a complete 200 km/h line, there will be scope for both passenger and freight trains in the future now expelled from this route due to insufficient train paths.

75 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 66 Construction work started in 1992 and is expected to be completed in Budgets are in this period more than doubled while severe geological problems occurred. Unfortunately, this also drained the financial resources to go ahead with other needed capacity expansion projects. Double track sections are ready for use or under construction on both sides of Hallandsåsen. But the chain still has weak spots, especially the single track section between Maria station and the central station in Helsingborg. Figure 59 Elimination of Railway Bottlenecks in Scania Source: Banverket 2010, West coast mainline upgrade projects, TDL. Train paths in and out of the Helsingborg node and stretches with missing double track contribute to a severe reduction in the overall utilization of the west coast mainline to Gothenburg. On the last section where the mainline from Stockholm and from Gothenburg meet between Lund and Malmö the situation is critical.

76 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 67 Figure 60 Scenarios for Freight Traffic Source: Trafikverket, Hallandsås-projektet. The Arlöv-Flackarp project deals with a partial double track Malmö-Lund to be realized before It involves the construction of a 3rd and 4th track from Malmö to a point a few kilometers from Lund central station. Therefore, this seems to be a very inappropriate development process, if the new double track stops here. The missing Flackarp-Lund section forms a major bottleneck and contributes to reducing the functionality and the ability to leverage the investment in the first capacity expansion. Other upgrade projects are underway in Scania already decided in the context of the present national investment plan until 2021: among the most important is the upgrading of the freight corridor (Godsstråket) on the line Åstorp-Teckomatorp which bypasses Helsingborg and avoid the west coast line, further upgrading of the railway line Malmö-Trelleborg and thus the port of Trelleborg is underway, in the longer term, there are ambitions to build a new railway from Malmö via Staffanstorp to Simrishamn on the east coast, but this does not contribute directly to eliminate bottlenecks on the main Triangle lines Stockholm-Malmö and Gothenburg-Malmö. The integrated Øresound train system is currently experiencing capacity problems. Over the next 20 years it is expected that inter-regional trains and long distance trains will increase from now 30,000 to 50,000 daily cross-border travelers. This development is partly due to the opening of the FBL and the introduction of semi-high speed passenger trains between southern Sweden and Hamburg as well as general growth in the region.

77 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 68 Figure 61 Øresound Crossings by Train 2030 Source: IBU and Øresundsbron, It provides massive challenges for how capacity should be expanded in the corridors through southern Sweden. Two projects are underway: A new fixed Øresound link Helsingør-Helsingborg is investigated and proposed by the Region in order to enhance the international corridor Øresound-Fehmarn and to relieve the existing Øresound bridge, but only about 5 percent of passenger traffic is predicted to moving to a new link. However, a direct capacity relief could have a broader perspective with respect to the relatively large quantities of rail freight in this corridor, including the transit Germany-Sweden, if this new link would be established. There is also another investigation for a 30 km long Øresound tunnel underway. This project constitutes an Express Metro link Copenhagen-Malmö, mainly focusing on establishing a new fast and more reliable connection for the citizens of the two cities. But it may reduce the present pressure on the bridge in order to fit in new train paths which could serve for freight, and future high speed trains. In the short term there are also opportunities to improve the existing Øresound line. We have previously examined the Danish side, which is quite extensive measures to be undertaken in the coming years, to improve capacity across the Øresound-Fehmarn corridor. On the Swedish side it could be appropriate to construct level free crossings on the railway line passing at Malmö Syd and at the junction between the so-called Continental ring line in Malmö and the Ystad/Trelleborg lines. This gives possibility for trains to bypass the Citytunnel which in a few years seem to be completely utilized according to the operational plans.

78 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 69 Figure 62 Small and Large Infrastructure Capacity Projects in the Øresound Region Source: Øresund capacity project, Copenhagen-Malmö study 2011, TDL.

79 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe Road infrastructure Germany The Danish-German treaty foresees only the extension of the B 207 between Heiligenhafen (Ost) and Puttgarden up to four lanes. The extension works are to be finalized until the opening of the FBL at the latest. The Fehmarn Sound Bridge - as a listed building - is excluded from the extension plan, the bridge shall remain unchanged with 2 lanes. The following figure explains the principle situation of the road infrastructure in Northern Germany. Most relevant corridors are the highways A1, Hamburg - Lübeck (up to vehicles per day) and A7, Hamburg - Hannover (> vehicles per day) respectively Hamburg - Kiel. Primarily the nodes of Hamburg and Hannover are heavily utilized (> vehicles per day). In Hamburg most critical is the situation of the A7 corridor with the tunnel 57 (> vehicles per day) crossing below the river Elbe and the crossing with the A 23 ("Nord-West-Kreuz") (> vehicles/day). Especially the western part of the node of Hamburg actually is to be judged as critically. The highway "Y" comprising the A7, A23 ("North-West-crossing") in the direction towards the A1 is extremely used. Traffic jams of about 900 hours per year have been measured in Accordingly plans are in development to enhance the A7 up to 6 lanes including a roof construction for the section between highway exit Hamburg-Othmarschen and Hamburg-Stellingen. 59 Last newspaper reports say that total of this cost project will probable amount to 550 Million Euro. 60 Beyond this "end of the spouts" of A 23 and A7 like Itzehoe, Kiel-Blumental or Lübeck/Bad Schwartau the transport flows being measured officially in most cases decline sharply. See Figure 63 showing more details of the situation in Northern Germany as of The figures on the remaining part of the A1 until Heiligenhafen are about < vehicles/day and on a significant lower level than in the hot spots. In Heiligenhafen the highway A1 changed into federal road B207 which is currently under construction. Bottleneck on the way to Puttgarden and v.v. is the Fehmarn Sound Bridge The tunnel is used by ~ vehicles per day. See Baustelle in Hamburg: Staus am Elbtunnel noch bis 2020, Hamburger Abendblatt, Link: ( ). See Arbeitskreis Innovative Verkehrspolitik der Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Eckpunkte für eine zielorientierte, integrierte Infrastrukturplanung des Bundes, Vom Bundesverkehrswegeplan zur Bundesverkehrsnetzplanung, , p.20. Link: ( ). See Auch dritter A-7-Deckel teurer - Kosten steigen auf 550 Millionen, Hamburger Abendblatt, Link: Millionen.html ( ). See Auch dritter A-7-Deckel teurer - Kosten steigen auf 550 Millionen, Hamburger Abendblatt, Link: Millionen.html ( ).

80 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 71 Figure 63 Road Vehicle Figures for Northern Germany 2010 Source: Modified map provided by Bundesamt für Straßenverkehr, Verkehrsmengenkarte Link: _033/nn_42248/DE/Statistik/Verkehrsdaten-Downloads/2010/verkehrsmengenkarte-2010,templateId=raw,property=publicationFile.pdf/verkehrsmengenkarte-2010.pdf ( ). The Fehmarn Sound Bridge was built in the early 1960es and was opened in April The Sound Bridge is likely to be a seasonal bottleneck. During vacations on the A1/B 207- axis the number of vehicles is significantly higher than during the rest of the year as most tourists go on holidays by car. The number of vehicles during summer holidays can reach 70-90% more than average. 61 Accordingly there are seasonal traffic jams - particularly during the summer vacations - to be seen on the Sound Bridge and their relevant access roads as well as in the port of Puttgarden. In context with the extension works of B 207 between Heiligenhafen and Puttgarden the local road infrastructure administration of Schleswig-Holstein ("Straßenbauverwaltung") made some investigations about future road transport flows. One result is that the number of vehicles i.a. using the B207 is expected to grow by +5.5% between 2008 and See accordingly Figure 64 illustrating the expected vehicle development until 2030 on the B This figure is depending on the exact geographic point of measurement. For the Sound Bridge (section Heiligenhafen - Großenbrode) the relevant figure is about +70% of daily vehicles on average, on the quays of Puttgarden the factor is about +90%. See Straßenbauverwaltung Schleswig-Holstein, Verkehrsgutachten für den vierstreifigen Ausbau der B207, 2010, p.52. Link: Not available on the internet. "Common increase of transport activities": All road traffic within the planning area is considered but not the traffic crossing the Belt.

81 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 72 Figure 64 Expected Vehicle Figures for 2025 in Context with the Extension of the Route B207 between Heiligenhafen East and Puttgarden Source: Straßenbauverwaltung Schleswig-Holstein, Verkehrsgutachten für den vierstreifigen Ausbau der B207, 2010, p.17. The forecast for road transport rests upon the FTC Forecast 2002, which is cited already within this study. 63 Starting in 2008 with 5,752 vehicles per day target figure for 2025 is 9,694 vehicles per day (+4% per year). On the basis of all future road traffic within the region plus the transit passenger transports initiated by the FBL a "general increase of the forecasted transports" is expected of about 68.5%. 64 In this investigation also information is available regarding future heavy traffic by trucks. During the given interval the number of trucks is forecasted to develop from 1,100 up to 1,989 vehicles per day (+4.9% per year). Total growth rate is +80.8%. Besides the German source for road transport figures also the Danish FTC is to be considered. The general expectation for the cross-border road transport sector (busses and cars) is as presented in the FBL hearing in Berlin 2009 that the number of vehicles using the FBL will grow frequently. For the first 25 years of operation an average annual growth rate of +1.7% is expected. See accordingly chapter Total figure for 2043 is <15,000 vehicles per day (~+91% in total). Finally the question is to be answered how to evaluate the seasonal traffic jams especially on the Fehmarn Sound Bridge preferably during the summer months? The bridge with a length of 963 m and currently with two lanes likely is the "weak point" of the Lübeck - Puttgarden corridor. Cars with 90 km/h need 40 seconds to pass the bridge, in case of a speed limit of 60 km/h this will last about 1 minute. This "delay" in general seems to be manageable. The Bridge may become a principal problem in case of periods of strong See chapter 2.4. See Straßenbauverwaltung Schleswig-Holstein, Verkehrsgutachten für den vierstreifigen Ausbau der B207, 2010, p.18.

82 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 73 wind and vehicles have to stop on route causing traffic jams. The likelihood for these weather phenomenon commonly is expected to increase in future. In the past traffic restrictions of about 200 h/year had to be imposed 65 but as the number of strong wind periods is to grow the likelihood of imposed restrictions will increase as well. 66 According to current official statistics since a couple of years the number of vehicles passing the Fehmarn Sound Bridge is in a sidewise development. As Figure 65 shows the annual volumes vary between 168,000 and 159,000 road vehicles per year. This monthly distribution for the analyzed years is robust and - see Figure 66 - shows each year the so to say typical peak for regions with a strong touristy character respectively for regions which are at the same closely located to major long distance motorway corridors (e.g. Sweden - Italy). Peak figures of July are about 23,000 vehicles a day. Significant lower levels can be assessed for winter months January and December where only about 10% of the reported traffic can be recorded. The peak figures in July are temporarily about 175% of average (2010). The average annual use is 13,494 vehicles per month. The traffic forecast for B207 in 2025 does consider the regional road infrastructure but not the direct utilisation of Fehmarn Sound Bridge itself. Accordingly the assumed infrastructure improvements and recommendations concern roads around the crossing. The traffic within the region of Ostholstein and Fehmarn is expected to grow between 2008 and 2025 by 8.5% up to ~35,700 vehicles per day. 67 The segment with the lowest growth expectations is the transit with +5.5% or 7,700 vehicles per day. This assumption principally is in line with the moderate growth outlook of the FTC See Risø National Laboratory, Deutscher Wetterdienst (2005): Traffic restrictions due to wind on the Fehmarn Belt bridge, S.6. Link: ( ). The situation on the Belt corridor in total might become more critical in case of the erection of a bridge to cross the Belt. In that case there are three interdependent "weak points" (Belt crossing itself, Storstrømmen Bridge and Fehmarn Sound Bridge) regarding strong wind related transport restrictions especially for empty trucks, long vehicles and so on which requires more precautions. See Straßenbauverwaltung Schleswig-Holstein, Verkehrsgutachten für den vierstreifigen Ausbau der B207, 2010, p.22.

83 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 74 Figure 65 Annual Use of Fehmarn Sound Bridge by Vehicles DTV pro Jahr (Kfz Mo-So) Jahre Source: Straßenbauverwaltung Schleswig-Holstein, monthly reports, calculation HTC. Figure 66 Monthly Use of Fehmarn Sound Bridge by Vehicles DTV Kfz Mo-So Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Monate Source: Straßenbauverwaltung Schleswig-Holstein, monthly reports, calculation HTC. Assuming a growth analogue to the B207 forecast the average daily number of vehicles in 2025 is nearly 15,000 units which is somewhat more than expected (Figure 36). Figure 67 shows the principal capacity of roads/highways with 2 to 6 lanes. Typically the total of circa 15,000 vehicles/direction can be managed on a two-lane road in a "good quality". In case of more traffic, congestions are likely. 4 lanes typically last for about 50,000 vehicles/day in operated "good quality", the 6 lane solution offers capacity for circa 75,000 vehicles/day.

84 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 75 Figure 67 Capacity of Roads as a Function of Number of Available Lanes Source: BSVI, Bundesvereinigung der Straßenbau- und Verkehrsingenieure e.v., Straße und Schiene, Partner zur Sicherung der Mobilität, Daten und Fakten, 2006, p.12. Link: com_docman&task=doc _download&gid=11&itemid=58 ( ). With the utilisation level of the Fehmarn Sound Bridge described above the capacity of the building is likely to be uncritical and "daily business" seems to be manageable. If the number of cars will be growing by about 70% (FBL vehicle forecast ,694 vehicles/day or +68.5% of 2008: 5,752) the Fehmarn Sound Bridge will be affected as well. The average utilisation in 2025 would be 23,800 vehicles/day with a seasonal peak of approximately 40,000 vehicles/day in July. In that case the bridge as a 2-lane crossing would be overstretched and the quality of transports would be worse with likely regular traffic jams (Figure 67). Peaks with circa 40,000 vehicles/day are not manageable with a 3-lane in "good quality" but with a 4-lane bridge. In case growing demand for the Fehmarn Sound Bridge in line with the regional perspective for 2025 (<15,000 vehicles/day) the Sound Bridge likely is a sufficient solution. Primarily it is a political consideration whether traffic jams especially in summer (in July) is reason enough to enlarge capacity for the remaining 11 months which is likely not to be used sufficiently during the rest of the year. If future volumes are significantly above the described level (>>15,000 vehicles/day) the bridge would have to be enhanced to 3 lanes of which could one could be used bidirectional depending on the concrete traffic situation. Suitable telematic techniques should be applied to contribute to better information and transport flows. 68 Due to limited space on the bridge the width of the lanes probably would have to be reduced as well as maximum speed to reduce the potential of accidents and damages. These operational limitations during selected periods of time (peak month July, periods of strong wind, certain speed reductions on a 1.000m distance) seem to be arguable as at least a mid-term solution. 68 The IHK Lübeck summarized the situation very similar in 2009 and did not argue in favour of a new Sound Bridge. See IHK Lübeck, Entwicklung der Verkehrsinfrastruktur auf der Achse Hamburg - Puttgarden im Zuge einer festen Fehmarn-Beltquerung, 2009, p.94.

85 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe Denmark The dynamics of road traffic flow - understood as the average speed at which you can move in / out or across the metropolitan area - is unlikely that it could improve when we look further ahead. This is due to congestion that occurs in the network, which is difficult to expand in the same pace as traffics grow. There is a calculation of different scenarios of traffic congestion in Here, all new capacity would be exhausted in the upgraded M3, and despite the expansion of the South motorway in the corridor Øresound-Fehmarn there will be a lot of motorists every day who are experiencing critical congestion, defined at travel speeds of km/h, and hence more than a doubling of travel time. Figure 68 Car Traffic Flows in the Main Road Network of Denmark 2030 Comment: Figures without trucks. Source: Infrastructure Commission, Long term road traffic projections, TU-Denmark (DTF) In the 2030-scenario occurs incipient congestion when road capacity is utilized 70%, which directly leads to a fall of approx. 5 km/h. In critical congestion periods the capacity is utilized 95%. Traffic forecasts indicate that the cars especially in the metropolitan area in and around Copenhagen are exposed to queue for more than 200,000 hours per day in 2030, doubling from Large investment initiatives will be able to reduce this but not eliminate congestion.

86 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 77 These measures include a western ring road M5, an eastern ring road through a harbour tunnel, road pricing or congestion charging, better public transport including new regional services, high-speed rail, metro expansion and new light rail lines, etc. Figure 69 Prediction of Congestion in the Main Road Network 2030 Source: Infrastructure Commission, Long term road traffic projections, TU-Denmark (DTF) As can be seen, there is great pressure on the roads around Copenhagen, in the northern direction, in central Zealand between the Great Belt Bridge and Copenhagen, but also around Roskilde and south. However, traffic volume is not critical on Lolland and Falster. In Jutland in the Triangle Kolding-Vejle-Fredericia, there is great road network pressure, where need for a new bridge over Vejle Fjord and a tunnel or bridge over the Little Belt is under consideration. Likewise, the whole east Jutland band up to Aarhus, Randers and Aalborg has partially a high traffic load. Also on the highway across Funen shows a fairly large car volume.

87 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 78 The western bypass (Motorring 5) In the long term could be expected an even stronger pressure on the radial roads north, west and south of Copenhagen. Also from Sweden via the Øresound Bridge, traffic volume is much higher when we look towards 2030 or longer. In addition, traffic is expected to grow in the north-south direction. To meet these challenges are studied both western and eastern bypass options for improving traffic flow in terms of capacity as well as speed. Figure 70 New Western Ring Road in the Ring 5 Corridor Source: IBU 2010, Ring transport corridor analyses, Tetraplan One solution is to establish a western ring road around Copenhagen in the transport corridor Ring 5 with already reserved land acquisition. Ministry of Transport has proposed a new 1.2 billion EUR expensive 70 km long Ring 5-highway as a solution that provides an extremely high congestion relief in the form of 17,000 hours driving time saved daily. Traffic models indicate clearly that the Ring 5 not only provides up to fifteen minutes shorter running time on the stretch Elsinore-Køge, a Ring 5 corridor also includes a relatively broad regional relief of the radial road network. Together with a new fixed link across the Øresound between Helsingør and Helsingborg, which in the long term creates new capacity across the Sound, would these new infrastructure projects make a substantial relief in the emerging bottlenecks.

88 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 79 At the southern end of the ring 5, the new highway to reduce traffic by 32,000 cars on the existing one, which is Denmark's most congested. The motorway has been expanded up to 10 lanes, and further capacity improvements have to be implemented if congestion should be kept under control. In peaks hours the average speed is more than halved compared with normal free flow. New construction work starts in order to add extra lanes to the existing motorway, but in the long run another solution has to be found. The eastern bypass road (including the northern harbour tunnel) An eastern ring road through the northern harbour of Copenhagen is also on the political agenda. This 3.3 billion EUR project relieves congestion in the centre of Copenhagen, but it also re-route some of the interregional flows. The benefit of the project is also seen as part of a strategic town development plan. Figure 71 Eastern Ring Road via a Northern Harbour Tunnel Source: Copenhagen City, Strategic master plan (2009). Regulation of traffic and congestion A toll ring system in Copenhagen will dramatically reduce congestion due to a substantial decrease in car traffic of 20-25% in the centre of Copenhagen. The consequences can be seen both inside and outside Copenhagen. A toll ring line or a green zone with a combination of parking or a kind of town zone fee will ceteris paribus have less effect on overall congestion than the imposition of payment on all roads in the region or nationally. In general there is a political agreement in the Danish parliament to introduce green road user charges. This will be able to control the congestion more effective, particularly if it is a GPS-based system dependent on the peak traffic times. The system is however not yet in order that it is both efficient and has low transaction costs.

89 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 80 Figure 72 Reduced Traffic of Roads in the Copenhagen Region Source: Toll ring Copenhagen, Kommuneforum, Alternative O2. Other projects Growth in demand for transport may be met with some expansions of new infrastructure in line with national policy. The pressure will obviously be heaviest in the metropolitan region, but as can be seen on the map of traffic volumes on Zealand 2030 there will also be congestion outside the motorway network, e.g. between the highway and Næstved in South Zealand. Against this background, there are concrete infrastructure plans to invest in a high class road link via Næstved to Slagelse and Kalundborg. First section of this road is agreed, which will give better accessibility between the Great Belt link and the south motorway E47 towards the Fehmarn Belt link. In the short term, preparing for the fixed Fehmarn Belt link started for the road connection. In this context it is necessary to convert the existing 4-lane highway from Rodby to Sakskøbing. It was inaugurated in 1963, but built with a relatively narrow profile with no emergency lanes, and speed is currently limited to 110 km/h. The investment budget is 70 million EUR that can bring the technical and safety standards up to date. The Danish traffic police authorities will finally decide whether the upgrade can be approved for driving with a normal maximum speed of 130 km/h. The Danish Road Administration does not see significant congestion problems on the highway after its reconstruction in The current forecasts for the number of vehicles for the fixed Fehmarn Belt link is taken as the input basis (2025) for design of the refurbished highway.

90 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 81 Figure 73 Upgrading of Highway from Rødby to Sakskøbing Source: Danish Road Administration: Opgradering af E47 Sydmotorvejen, report 389, Numbers of cars Year 2009 in black and 2025 in red letters. When looking at the road network towards Sweden in recent years a critical congestion point on the Øresound motorway has been i.e. where Amager highway branches into E20 to and from the Øresound Link and Copenhagen Airport. The highway has been rebuilt during the last couple of years and is now partially expanded to 6 lanes between the urban development area Ørestad, the Tårnby tunnel and the airport site. It is not likely to upgrade the fixed Øresound link to a 6 lane motorway on the basis of the dimensions of the bridge and the tunnel Sweden If we look at the main road network in Sweden, it is particularly around the 3 major cities Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö that can be observed very high traffic volumes. As elsewhere significant congestion is present, and the socio-economic losses due to the queuing time cost 1 billion annually, according to analyses for the Trafikverket. The pressure on the roads around Malmö is just as dominant as in other places in Sweden. Nearly 70 percent of all Swedish export goes through Skåne on the railroad or by truck on to the ferry or over the Øresound Bridge. In rush hour it can be seen that the volume of trucks are quite numerous, and in periods it is possible to register up to 20% trucks of total vehicles. Regarding the road network in Scania there has been nationally designated a number of routes with priority investments for upgrading the capacity.

91 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 82 Figure 74 Road Capacity in Sweden Source: Swedish National Transport Authority, Capacity Plan 2012 These are: Highway E6: A new highway built partly in parallel with the existing route Malmö-Trelleborg which could be expanded further later on (harbour connection). This project is indicated at the map as no. 10 (see figure next page). Highway E65: In the middle section of the route Malmö-Ystad will be built motorway. A partially new alignment is considered among the alternatives, see project no. 11. Highway E22: Several sections of the main road Malmö-Kristianstad will be converted either to 4-lane expressway or highway, and several parking facilities - including those for trucks - will be established along the route, indicated as project no. 12, 13, 14, 15 and 16 on the map. Highway E4: Connecting the inner ring road of Helsingborg south of E4/E6 it is the intension to build a new road link towards the harbour of Helsingborg, see project no. 3. Looking at the projects in total it is seen that on the main route E4 to E6 towards Stockholm respectively Gothenburg there are not any major expansion plans for sections of these main corridors within the Scania region.

92 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 83 Figure 75 Ongoing Infrastructure Projects in Southern Sweden Source: Swedish National Transport Plan, Actions The international traffic is especially significant as regards the freight flows between South Sweden and Germany. The total amount includes 32 million tonnes, of which 41% goes through Denmark, ie. across the Øresound Bridge or the Helsingborg-Helsingør ferry line. The rest of the traffic is distributed on several ferry routes including Trelleborg-Rostock, Trelleborg-Travemünde etc. There is a daily shipment of total 2200 vehicles (cars and trucks) via the direct routes from southern Sweden to Germany. A substantial part of the Swedish traffic goes via Denmark. For comparison the Danish- German routes Rødby-Puttgarden and Gedser-Rostock have a daily transfer of 6500 vehicles. This number is expected to increase significantly when the fixed link is opened in 2020/21.

93 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe Sea-/Air transportation Catchment areas of Copenhagen and Hamburg Airport The infrastructure of the future plays a significant role for the growth potential and the catchment areas of Hamburg as well as Copenhagen Airport. If Copenhagen Airport is to retain its status as the traffic hub of Scandinavia, it is important that the number of potential passengers is increased substantially in the years to come. Therefore the attraction of additional passengers outside the current catchment area of four million people is of high importance. The vision for the next 10 to 15 years must therefore be to double the catchment area to 8 million people with less than two hours transport to the airport. Figure 76 Catchment Area of Copenhagen Airport Source: Copenhagen Airport. This will be possible through expansion of infrastructure as well as the elimination of bottlenecks. Various studies emphasize that there is a clear correlation between the size of the catchment area and the number of passengers and routes. Today almost 90 % of the traffic is international, while many of Nordic competitors have around % domestic traffic. The decision by Finnish-based Blue1 to use Copenhagen Airport as a hub beginning in March of this year, the coming SAS and Air China routes to Shanghai and Beijing as well as the existing inter-continental routes e.g. to Bangkok, Singapore, Chicago, Tokyo, New York and Colombo may help to attract further passengers. As the following map indicates Copenhagen is generally the airport which most citizens can reach in less than half an hour, 1 hour, 1.5 hours and 2 hours respectively. The catchment area covers most of Denmark and all of Southern Sweden which accommodates 40 % of the entire Swedish population. With an improved infrastructure connection via FBL further passengers from

94 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 85 Germany could also be attracted. Further impacts on the air cargo volumes can also be expected. Amongst the largest unserved inter-continental destinations from Hamburg several CPH destinations can be found: Bangkok: Annual market size HAM-BKK: 65,500. Largest unserved market from HAM catchment area Singapore: Annual market size HAM-SIN: 36,200. Reason for travel: 72.1% business (Hamburg Airport Passenger Survey) Chicago: Annual market size HAM-CHI: 33, % of traffic to Chicago is business (Hamburg Airport Passenger Survey) Shanghai: Annual market size HAM-PVG: 29,100. Reason for travel: 55% business (Hamburg Airport Passenger Survey). On the other hand there are also new opportunities for Danish passengers due to an easier access to Hamburg airport. Currently 3.7 million people can reach Hamburg Airport within one hour, 4.9 million in 1.5 hours and 7.5 million in two hours. This catchment area is supposed to be further extended by a Fehmarnbelt fixed link. Hamburg Airport s timetable covers 115 domestic and international direct routes. On the following map showing the embarking passengers at HAM by region the importance of the Danish market Jutland for the airport can be observed, the Copenhagen region is currently untouched. Figure 77 Embarking Passengers at HAM by Region Source: Hamburg Airport. Due to the ongoing passenger loss the airport of Lübeck plays a minor role in this discussion. Being the only Ryanair base along the corridor Lübeck might be able to attract additional Danish passengers due to cheap rates, but the total volume is expected to be negligible compared to HAM or CPH.

95 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 86 Ports Copenhagen Malmö, Lübeck The Ports of Lübeck are the farthermost south-western transhipment hub located in the Baltic Sea and act as the central turntable especially for the traffic between the traditional economical metropolis in west- and central Europe and the fast developing economical region of the Baltic Sea. One of the most important factors for the success of the largest German port at the Baltic Sea is the extremely dense departure rate of the liner services. The Ports of Lübeck offer more than 130 departures per week serving almost all important Baltic ports. The following figure shows the main cargo flows via Lübeck and underlines Lübeck's turntable function for the Baltic Sea region. Figure 78 Main Cargo Flows via Lübeck Source: Lübecker Hafen-Gesellschaft, Railhub Lübeck, Presentation, Link: 20Luebeck%20Heinrich%20Beckmann.pdf ( ). Additionally, the Lübeck ports offer all advantages of a logistic centre, as well as a wide range of hinterland-connections. The three-lane motorway "A1" in direction of Hamburg connects Lübeck with the main economic centres in Europe. The rail net offers an especially high efficiency in the carload traffic as well as in the combined traffic. In addition, the Elbe-Lübeck-Canal provides a link to the European "inland waterways" network. With a modal share of 15 % and more than 50 trains per week (2011, combined and conventional transport) to 40 destinations across Europe (e.g. Basel, Duisburg, Ludwigshafen, Verona,

96 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 87 Novarra) the railway transport mode plays an important role in hinterland transportation. Lübeck is proposed to be part of the TEN core-net. Over the recent years the port of Lübeck has made considerable infrastructure investments i.a. to create additional marshalling yards and intermodal terminal facilities to be prepared for the coming FBL. Figure 79 Preparation for the Fixed Link Source: Lübecker Hafen-Gesellschaft, Railhub Lübeck, Presentation, Link: ( ). The fixed link is expected to improve Lübeck's position as transhipment hub in the Fehmarnbelt region, as Danish cargo also can be consolidated here. On the other hand LHG estimates that, the fixed link will lead to a decrease of approximately 10 % of the total volume shipped via Lübeck, mainly on the Swedish trade. The Port of Copenhagen is a major port for transport of cargo and for ferries. The port is also known as a major destination for cruise ships. To strengthen the port s position as the gateway to the Baltic Sea, the Port of Copenhagen merged in 2001 with the Port of Malmö in Sweden to become Copenhagen Malmö Port. Not only Danish and Swedish cargo but also other European consignments move in transit via Copenhagen Malmö Port, either directly from truck, rail or ship. Therefore the Copenhagen Malmö port is expected to benefit from an efficient (railway) link to central Europe.

97 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe ASSESSMENT OF EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE CONCEPTS 4.1 General Assessment For Germany the general judgement of existing infrastructure concepts - at least regarding road, rail in inland waterways - is ambivalent. Germany's national and political self-understanding comprises to be a global leading industry country with excellent infrastructure supply and at the same time the leading logistics platform of Europe. The fulfilment of this self-defined role is getting harder from year to year. At first it has to be brought in mind again that rail freight shall increase by 65% until The expected 152 Billion tkm can be judged as conservative because significant changes like significant intermodal changes are no longer assumed to be likely with regard to the experiences with the former BVWP and will accordingly not be included as targeted figures of the future market development in Germany. Nevertheless these absent changes will become very likely as future requirements will force transports and logistics to become significantly better in energy efficiency as well as in cost efficiency in general. Since decades Billions of Euros had been invested in transport infrastructure according to official planning documents. The level of modernity of the German railway network is on record level, at the same time road infrastructure, the most important backbone of the whole transport sector is adversely affected by less maintenance and a bow wash of necessary re-investments of existing highways, bridges and so on. Regarding rail the content of the BVWP is extremely influenced by federal and local political views and is expresses a national approach of infrastructure development ignoring widely bilateral or comprehensive requirements. The rail connections of the Betuwe-Line or the border crossing at Horka are only two examples. At the same time the funding of the BVWP is too little since many years according to the introduced requirements. 69 DB AG as main infrastructure manager is investing about Billion Euro per year in rail infrastructure in fact solely funded by the Federal Government. 70 According to official statistics, the degree of up-to-dateness of the rail networks in total is higher than ever, at the same time DB AG has to increase maintenance activities significantly due to neglected elimination of deterioration in the forefront of the intended privatisation of DB AG Group some years ago. Investments in rail infrastructure focus only on high-speed passenger transports. Here DB AG still has a monopoly and can boost this business segment accordingly. There are no dedicated rail freight projects included in the BVWP because rail freight is commonly seen to be a co-user of (new) lines primarily designed for passenger transports. 71 High-speedline projects like Nuremberg - Erfurt or Stuttgart - Ulm including "Stuttgart 21" consume de facto nearly all of the available funding of the coming years. 72 The benefit of these invest So called "demands of the associations" amounting up to 5 Billion Euro per year. See Gleisnetz: 5 Milliarden jährlich für Ausbau und Pflege nötig, Allianz pro Schiene, press release, no date. Link: ( ). See DB AG, Daten und Fakten, various volumes. Single counterexample: High-speed-line Frankfurt-Cologne. Gradients do not allow freight trains to run there. Estimations say that due to the high-speed focus the budget of the next more than twenty years are already reserved before sound infrastructure projects could be initiated as well.

98 Report Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure between Scandinavia and Central Europe 89 ments is in question as many assumptions of the commercial evaluations emerged to be too optimistic 73 and the number of train paths available today is too small. 74 Contrary to that especially the rail hinterland transports of the seaports require more and more capacity. As shown above due to the growing global exchange of products and services the land-based transport in Europe respectively Germany as well is increasing rapidly here. Already now the seaports of Bremerhaven and Hamburg are generating about 20% of total rail freight services in Germany and this share is to grow in future as well. Table 9 Rail-based Hinterland Containertransport Plannings of Sea Ports Ports Time Frame Mio TEU on Rail Growth Trains per year Rotterdam < ~700% (2009) ~ Antwerp < ~100% (2006) ~ Zeebrügge < ~600% (2009) ~ Hamburg < ~100% (2009) ~ Bremerhaven < ~100% (2009) ~ Source: Ports. Analysis HTC. Figure 80 Main Hinterland Corridors of Seaports (growth trains/day until 2015) Source: Godehard Weber, DB Netz AG, Regionalbereich Nord, Seehafen - Hinterlandverkehr - Entwicklung der Eisenbahninfrastruktur in Norddeutschland, Presentation , p.7. Link: ( ). Table 9 gives and overview for major seaports in Europe and Germany and what is planned there to increase hinterland logistics on rail in order to safeguard their own competitiveness as a seaport. 75 If these planning become reality the rail networks will have to This is a prior problem of past forecasts in Germany regarding rail (freight). Comparable forecasts for the road transport mode normally matched with the later reality of the mobility markets in principle. An attribute of mixed train operations: The larger the difference between on the one hand maximum speed of freight or short-distance passenger trains (80-120km/h) and on the other hand high-speed trains the lower the capacity available on a certain line. Rule of thumb: 1 high-speed train path 2 common train paths. According to Dr. Ninnemann capable hinterland connections are decisive for a seaport to keep a strong international competition position. See Ninnemann, Jan, Seaport competition in Europe, p. 205ff.