An integrated update of Vietnam FMCG market 12 weeks period ending 16 August 2015 (12 w/e P8 15) Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam

Transcription

1 An integrated update of Vietnam FMCG market 12 weeks period ending 16 August 2015 (12 w/e P8 15) Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam Previous Start 1

2 MACRO FORCES THAT IMPACT ON THE GROCERY MARKET The context of complicated global economy The impact of China s yuan devaluation to emerging markets Global stock market fluctuations Vietnam devalued the dong by 5.1 % against the dollar so far Oil production on the up, oil & gas price on the decrease Electricity price on the rise 2

3 KEY INDICATORS Vietnam devalued the dong (VND) by 5.1% against the dollar in the first 8 months. Oil, gas prices cut more coupled with the low CPI rate. FMCG TRENDS Overall market growth has increased at the highest rate since Q3 14. Urban momentum comes back while Rural seems more stable in the short term. HOT CATEGORIES RETAIL LANDSCAPE SPOTLIGHT ON VN Dairy picks up in Urban and Beverages grow very fast in Rural. Positive signals are observed across almost categories Though Street Shops still preserve their dominance in the local market, emerging channels esp. mini-market, CVS and specialty stores speed up in urban. Local players keep up the good work in Rural, esp. in Dairy and Beverages. They also gain more ground in Home Care. 3

4 KEY INDICATORS FMCG TRENDS HOT CATEGORIES RETAIL LANDSCAPE SPOTLIGHT ON VIETNAM +6.4% Q2 15 vs. YA +5.3% Q2 14 vs. YA GDP +0.6% August 15 vs. YA +4.4% August 14 vs. YA CPI FMCG GROWTH URBAN 4 CITIES Value Growth % Volume Growth % P8'13 vs YA P8'14 vs YA P8'15 vs YA RURAL Value Growth % Volume Growth % Vietnam devalued the dong (VND) by nearly 5.1% against the dollar in the first 8 months. Oil, gas prices cut more coupled with the low CPI rate. Yet, both Urban and Rural market only showed slightly positive movements in the long term. Source: GSO Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam Total FMCG excluding Gift 4

5 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 12 w/e P7'15 12 w/e P8'15 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 12 w/e P7'15 12 w/e P8'15 KEY INDICATORS FMCG TRENDS HOT CATEGORIES RETAIL LANDSCAPE SPOTLIGHT ON VIETNAM FMCG 12 WEEKLY YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE (%) Urban 4 Cities Rural % % Overall market growth has increased at the highest rate since Q3 last year. 0 0 Urban momentum is coming back while Rural seems more stable in the short term % change Avg. Price paid* Value Volume** *: To calculate FMCG price paid change, we calculate how much price contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA **: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume) Source: Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam - Total FMCG excluding Gift 5

6 KEY INDICATORS FMCG TRENDS HOT CATEGORIES RETAIL LANDSCAPE SPOTLIGHT ON VIETNAM URBAN 4 CITIES VALUE CHANGE (%) UME* CHANGE (%) Total FMCG Dairy Beverages Packaged Foods Personal care Home care In Urban, Dairy picks up after decline in the past seven months. Personal Care and Home Care are doing well. RURAL Total FMCG Dairy Beverages Packaged Foods Personal care Home care In the meantime, Rural holds much promise for almost sectors. Especially, Beverages are growing very fast. *: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume) Source: Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam Total FMCG excluding Gift 12 w/e vs. YA 6

7 KEY INDICATORS FMCG TRENDS HOT CATEGORIES RETAIL LANDSCAPE SPOTLIGHT ON VIETNAM Urban 4 cities Top 4 Rural Top 4 +47% +23% +19% +17% +18% +26% +37% +62% Liquid TFD Liquid Detergent Cheese Shower Gel Liquid Milk Drinking Yogurt Floor Cleaner Soya Milk Source: Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam Total FMCG excluding Gift 12 w/e vs. YA 7

8 KEY INDICATORS FMCG TRENDS HOT CATEGORIES RETAIL LANDSCAPE SPOTLIGHT ON VIETNAM Urban 4 Key Cities % Value Share Street Shops Wet Market Modern Trade Specialty Direct Sales Others w/e P w/e P w/e P8 15 Rural w/e P w/e P w/e P Street shops Wet market Specialty Stores Modern trade > Hyper/Supermarket > Ministores 2 3 Street shops Wet market Modern trade Growth -0.5% -0.5% < Growth < 5% 5% Growth 15% 12 w/e P8 14 vs. YA Growth >15% 12 w/e P8 15 vs. YA In terms of retail landscape, Street Shops continuously keeps its dominance in local market. However, Minimarkets, convenience stores, specialty stores (esp. in Dairy and Baby Product) speed up with double-digit growth in urban area. Source: Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam Total FMCG excluding Gift 8

9 KEY INDICATORS FMCG TRENDS HOT CATEGORIES RETAIL LANDSCAPE SPOTLIGHT ON VIETNAM LOCAL PLAYERS KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK IN RURAL, ESP. IN DAIRY AND BEVERAGES. THEY ALSO GAIN MORE GROUND IN HOME CARE FMCG Dairy Beverages Packaged Foods Personal Care Home Care Source: Kantar Worldpanel Households Panel Rural Vietnam Total FMCG excluding Gift P8 15 % Value Share International Players Local Players 9

10 About Kantar Worldpanel Kantar Worldpanel is the world leader in consumer knowledge and insights based on continuous consumer panels. Its High Definition Inspiration approach combines market monitoring, advanced analytics and tailored market research solutions to deliver both the big picture and the fine detail that inspire successful actions by its clients. Kantar Worldpanel s expertise about what people buy or use and why has become the market currency for brand owners, retailers, market analysts and government organisations globally. With over 60 years experience, a team of 3,500, and services covering more than 55 countries directly or through partners, Kantar Worldpanel delivers High Definition Inspiration in fields as diverse as FMCG, impulse products, fashion, baby, telecommunications and entertainment, among many others. For further information, please visit us at Contact us Nguyen Thi Nhu Ngoc Senior Marketing Executive nhungoc.nguyenthi@kantarworldpanel.com Tel: Fax: Mob: +84 (0) Kantar Worldpanel Vietnam 58 Vo Van Tan St., Dist. 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam KWP_VN Kantar Worldpanel Vietnam