All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast Henry Phillips

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1 All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast Henry Phillips

2

3 All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast Henry Phillips

4 COFORD Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Agriculture House Kildare Street Dublin 2 Ireland COFORD 2 First published in 2 by COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Dublin, Ireland. ISBN: All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, or stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, electrostatic,magnetic tape,mechanical, photocopying recording or otherwise, without prior permission in writing from COFORD. Title: All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast Author: Henry Phillips. Citation: Phillips, H. 2. All Ireland Roundwood Production Forecast COFORD, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Dublin. The views and opinions expressed in this publication belong to the author alone and do not necessarily reflect those of COFORD or the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food.

5 Table of Contents Acknowledgements Foreword Preface ii iii iv Executive summary Introduction Methodology Data sources Assortment volumes Sawable volume Forecast of standing volume Forecast of net realisable volume References Table : Forecast volume and actual harvest volume ( m 3 ) Table 2: Percentage of volume >=4 cm that potentially converts to sawable material Table 3: Forecast of potential standing volume production by assortment category ( m 3 overbark) Table 4: Forecast of potential net realisable volume production by assortment category ( m 3 overbark) Table 5: Forecast of potential net realisable volume production total volume and volume tip-7 cm ( m 3 overbark) Table 6: Forecast of potential conifer net realisable volume production by species group ( m 3 overbark) Table 7: Forecast of potential net realisable volume production by harvest type ( m 3 overbark) Table 8: Forecast of potential harvest areas by harvest type (ha) Table 9: Forecast of potential total net realisable volume by county ( m 3 overbark) Table : Forecast of potential net realisable volume assortment 7-3 cm by county ( m 3 overbark) Table : Forecast of potential net realisable volume assortment 4-9 cm by county ( m 3 overbark) Table 2: Forecast of potential net realisable volume assortment 2 cm + by county ( m 3 overbark) Table 3: Forecast of potential net realisable volume assortment tip-7 cm by county ( m 3 overbark) Table 4: Forecast of potential spruce net realisable volume by county ( m 3 overbark) Table 5: Forecast of potential lodgepole pine net realisable volume by county ( m 3 overbark) Table 6: Forecast of potential other conifer net realisable volume by county ( m 3 overbark) Figure : Forecast of volume production Figure 2: Methodology to forecast net realisable volume Figure 3: Forecast of net realisable volume production Figure 4: Forecast of net realisable volume production by size category Figure 5: Forecast of net realisable volume by species group Figure 6: Forecast of harvest areas (ha) Appendix : Forecast of potential net realisable volume production by harvest type for ROI ( m 3 overbark) 34 Addendum - Estimate of potential availability of wood fibre for energy 35 i

6 Acknowledgements The author wishes to thank the members of the COFORD Roundwood Supply Group: Mike Glennon (Chair, Glennon Brothers), Tim Crowley (), Dr Eugene Hendrick (COFORD/DAFF), John Joe O Boyle (Northern Ireland Forest Service), Richard Latimer (Glennon Brothers), Gerard Murphy (), Dr Nuala Ni Fhlatharta (Teagasc), Vivian Ryan (), Donal Whelan (Irish Timber Growers Association). Thanks also to Mr Liam Quinn () and Mr John Redmond (Forest Service) for their data contribution to this forecast and for their advice on combining data from a range of sources and the interpretation of published forecast volumes. Thanks are also extended to Dr Mairtin MacSiúrtáin (UCD) for his comments on the text and editorial inputs and to Eoin O Driscoll (Drima Marketing) for providing the processing data. ii

7 Foreword Ireland s forest sector is a success story, employing 6, people across the state. It comprises a vibrant forest products sector, with state-of-the-art boardmills and sawmills, exporting a high proportion of output. Considerable potential exits to expand production; half the forest estate is less than 25 years old, and further expansion of forest cover is planned. Realising the potential of forests to provide increased and sustainable supplies of goods and services to industry and wider society depends on a number of factors, including accurate and timely information on their production potential. Over the past eighteen months a COFORD Roundwood Supply Group has been working to collate information on the production potential of forests here in the Republic and in Northern Ireland. This report is the outcome of their work, and provides a comprehensive and regional basis for roundwood production to 228. I very much welcome the outcomes of the work presented in these pages. They provide a very good basis for decision making, and will help to guide prudent investment by the private sector over the coming decade. In essence the report shows that over the period to 228 the production capacity of Ireland s forests will almost double to 7 million cubic metres, from the current 3.79 million. Almost all of the increase in supply is set to come from privately-owned forests in the Republic - those areas established over the past 25 years on foot of state/eu and private sector investment. Considerable scope exists to expand wood energy production, and this is in addition to supplies for sawmilling and board manufacture. Making the potential in this report a reality will require significant investment by the forest industry and the state in training, infrastructure, IT and research. I am confident that the capacity and determination exists in the forest sector to bring these results about. In conclusion, I want to thank all those involved in the compilation of the report, those from Glennon Brothers, UCD,, the Northern Ireland Forest Service, The Irish Timber Growers Association, Teagasc and officials of my own Department. Sean Connick TD Minister of State for Forestry February 2 iii

8 Preface Tight control of costs, allied to investment in innovation are key to maintaining and increasing the competitiveness of the forest sector in Ireland. At the processing end, converting roundwood into increasingly sophisticated products and systems requires a close match between customer demand and what is available in the forest. Reliable information on the location and quantity of roundwood available to market is a vital component in planning not only day-to-day harvest schedules, but in longer term planning and in scaling innovation effort and capital investment. The COFORD Roundwood Supply Group has been able over the past eighteen months to develop significantly better information on the location and quantity of roundwood supply to 228. One of the most important aspects of the work has been a critical appraisal of the level of supply that is likely to come to market, taking into account issues such as harvest loss, access and plantation size. We are glad that all sectors have now accepted that for those critically important investment and planning decisions a new concept, net realisable volume, is accepted in production forecasting. It is acknowledged that the overall production potential of the forest resource considerably exceeds the net realisable volume level; however, experience and available information show that the net realisable volume itself has never been achieved to date. This document provides, for the first time, a comprehensive roundwood production forecast for private and public forests in the Republic and in Northern Ireland. It is further broken down by assortment categories and species groups. For the Republic, county-level forecasts are provided, and these can be accessed and interrogated using the forecast tool developed at University College Dublin by Dr Mairtín Mac Siúrtáin and his team in the FORECAST project, funded under the COFORD programme. What stands out from the forecast is that roundwood supply will increase significantly over the next two decades, almost all coming from privately-owned forests in the Republic, and mainly in the sawlog-sized category. As we have pointed out, the overall forecast is contingent on issues such as access and plantation size, and likewise the expected assortment outcome depends on plantations being thinned on time, at sufficient intensity, to bring forward supplies of larger, more valuable sizes. Table 8 in the report illustrates the scale of the thinning challenge, over 22,5 ha to be thinned in 2 alone, rising to 49,4 ha by 22. This will require investment in forest roads and in training and education right along the supply chain, from forest owners to machine operators and hauliers. The wood energy market is vital to achieving the levels of thinnings anticipated in the forecast, and the Addendum to the report provides estimates of the level of supply that can be achieved. Given that roundwood demand exceeded supply in 2, particularly in the 4 cm+ top diameter category, we strongly recommend that this report be read in conjunction with the COFORD Roundwood Demand Group report, which outlines the demand profile to 22. In conclusion, this roundwood production forecast is a major advance on what was available heretofore. It has developed a new understanding of roundwood production forecasting in the forest sector in Ireland. We thank the members of the COFORD Roundwood Supply Group mentioned in the acknowledgements and in particular the author, Henry Phillips, for skilfully bringing together a range of data sources with different approaches and assumptions into a well structured and authoritative document. Mike Glennon Chair COFORD Roundwood Supply Group Michael Lynn Chairman COFORD February 2 iv

9 Executive summary The forest processing and emerging wood energy sectors require forecast volumes at an all Ireland level, to underpin any investment decisions. This series of forecast tables is an attempt to collate forecast volume data from a number of sources and present them on an all Ireland basis. The forecast volumes are based on a range of assumptions, yield models, management regimes and forecast rules which may or may not be applicable at individual plantation level. This document should be read in conjunction with the COFORD Roundwood Demand Group report. There can be significant differences between forecast volumes and actual timber volumes processed by the timber industry in any given year. This is due to a combination of factors principally (a) volume losses arising during harvesting, (b) planned volumes not being harvested due to market conditions/access/site conditions and (c) individual owner s circumstances and preferences. Net realisable volume: the estimated roundwood volume that will potentially be available to the end user. Two forecasts are presented: () Forecast of standing volume and (2) Forecast of net realisable volume which includes reductions for harvest loss, accessibility and crops unlikely to be harvested. The data sources used in compiling the forecast were a combination of (a) private sector geospatial forecast (Phillips et al. 29) (b) s Forecast 2 (c) Northern Ireland Forest Service () forecast of softwood availability and (d) potential softwood availability from the private sector in Northern Ireland. The total forecast of potential standing volume production over the forecast period is million m 3, with an additional 2.94 million m 3 potentially available in the tip-7 cm category. The forecast volume increases from an estimated 4.46 million m 3 in 2 to 7.38 million m 3 in 228. The total net realisable volume production over the forecast period is estimated as being 85.6 million m 3, with an additional 2.4 million m 3 potentially available in the tip-7 cm category. The forecast volume increases from 3.79 million m 3 in 2 to 6.95 million m 3 in 228. The volumes available within the Republic of Ireland (ROI) are estimated to double over the forecast period, while those in Northern Ireland (NI) are estimated to show an increase of 2%. Volume ( m 3 overbank) sector ROI sector NI Total volume 8 Forecast of net realisable volume production,

10 Based on s forecast, the percentage of the 4 cm plus assortment volume that converts to sawable material is relatively consistent for spruce over the period of the forecast, but can vary widely year on year for other tree species. Conversion factors for the three species groups are provided. Net realisable volume from thinnings totals million m 3 (excluding private sector NI) and the proportion of thinning volume to total volume increases up to 222 and then begins to decline as more clearfell volume becomes available from the private sector in the ROI. It is important to note that the volumes associated with second, third and subsequent thinnings are directly dependant upon the first thinning being undertaken. Clearfells (excluding private sector NI) are estimated to account for million m 3 over the forecast period. The total annual thinning area is estimated to more than double from 22,8 ha in 2 to 49,4 ha by 228 with the most significant increase being in the ROI private sector. Clearfell areas in contrast fluctuate within the range 7,2 ha to 8, ha up to 28 and show a significant increase thereafter due to the forecast clearfell of no-thin crops in the private sector. Markets may not always be available for the volumes forecasted. The volumes may be subject to changes in the regulatory framework. Professional advice should be sought prior to using the forecasts as an integral component of the decision-making process. There is an increasing need to inform policy makers, academia and potential investors on the potential availability of wood fibre volumes for energy use. To address this requirement, an Addendum providing an estimate of potential availability of wood fibre for energy has been included in this report. 2

11 Introduction Since the publication in 2 of the forecast of roundwood production from the forests of Ireland (Gallagher and O Carroll 2) there has been a downturn in private planting coupled with major changes in species composition in the Republic of Ireland (ROI). More importantly, there has been a significant advance in the capacity to forecast timber volumes from the private sector and in the quality of the datasets used to forecast these volumes. A COFORD-funded private sector geospatial forecast was published in 29 (Phillips et al. 29) which provided volume forecast estimates at national, regional, county and catchment levels. The forest processing and emerging wood energy sectors require forecast volumes at an all Ireland level to underpin any investment decisions. There are now increasing competing demands for the smaller sized timber volume assortments which traditionally were used in the manufacture of wood panels and fencing materials. This series of forecast tables is an attempt to collate forecast volume data from a number of sources and present them on an all Ireland basis. For comparison purposes, previous forecast volumes for years 27 to 29 inclusive are compared with volumes harvested (Table ). This document should be read in conjunction with the COFORD Roundwood Demand Group report. The forecast volumes are based on a range of assumptions, yield models, management regimes and forecast rules which may or may not be applicable at individual plantation level. The forecast assumes a continuation of the clearfell system of silviculture. Any change to continuous-cover type silvicultural systems will impact on forecast volumes. The forecast does not take into account market fluctuations or varying market conditions during the period of the forecast. The volumes may be subject to changes in the regulatory framework. Two forecasts were compiled, the first being a forecast of standing volume which is potentially available for harvesting. This is the standard type of forecast which has been produced at regular intervals for both the ROI and Northern Ireland over the years. The second forecast is for net realisable volume, i.e. the roundwood volume that is potentially available for processing at the end-use facility. It uses the forecast of standing volume as its starting point and through the application of a series of volume reductions to account for volume losses in harvesting and stands which are unlikely to be harvested due to access or other difficulties, arrives at an estimate of the net realisable volume. The volumes are indicative of the expected potential roundwood production from all of the forests within Ireland for the 2-28 period. The volumes are provided by standard size assortment classes (7-3 cm, 4-9 cm and 2 cm +). These do not equate to product classes due to underlying assumptions regarding log lengths and timber quality. Historically between 65-7% of the 4 cm plus size assortments converts to sawable volume. An estimate of the reduction factors to convert size assortments to sawable volume is included later in this report (Table 2). There can be significant differences between forecast volumes and actual timber volumes processed by the timber industry in any given year. This is due to a combination of factors principally (a) volume losses arising during harvesting, (b) planned volumes not being harvested due to market conditions/access/site conditions and (c) individual owners circumstances and preferences. The production of a forecast for net realisable volume is an attempt to lessen the difference between forecast volumes and volumes processed by industry. The total forecast volumes, net of harvest losses, by standard size assortment together with the actual volumes harvested and the overall processing outturn by product category are shown in Table for the three years 27 to 29 inclusive. While the forecast volumes remain relatively stable, the volumes harvested vary from 2.85 to 3.4 million m 3. Over the three year period there is a difference of.96 million m 3 between forecast volume and actual harvest volume. The processing outturn is not directly comparable with the harvested volume as it includes log imports from outside the island of Ireland. The sawlog outturn varies from 6.9% to 66.2% of total volume depending on volume source and year. In contrast, the two larger forecast size assortments represent from 76% to 83% of total forecast volume depending on volume source and year. The two larger size assortments account for 77% of total volume over the first five year period of the all Ireland forecast. As mentioned above, these two figures are not directly comparable due to underlying assumptions regarding standard lengths, species and timber quality. As the report goes to print, 2 data are not available for Table. Indications are however that the ratio of harvested volume to forecast net volume in 2 was within the range indicated in Figure 2, and that demand exceeded supply, particularly in the 4 cm plus top diameter category. Professional advice should be sought prior to using the forecasts as an integral component of the decision-making process. 3

12 Table : Forecast of net volume and actual harvest volume ( m 3 ) (a) Forecast production ROI NI Total ROI NI Total ROI NI Total 7-3 cm 4-9 cm 2+ cm 65 97, ,6, , ,64, , ,,798 Total 3, ,748 3, ,668 3, ,754 (b) Harvested volume 2, ,42 2, ,854 2, ,95 Difference (a) - (b) Processing outturn (%) ROI NI Total ROI NI Total ROI NI Total Pulpwood Stakewood Sawlog Total Sources: COFORD Connects Notes, Eoin O Driscoll (Drima Marketing). Methodology Data Sources The basis for the allocation of volumes between and the private sector within the ROI is land ownership. This approach is compatible with the private sector forecast (Phillips et al. 29) and avoids complications arising from joint venture and partnership arrangements. The Irish Forestry Unit Trust (IForUT) owns the harvesting rights to part of the forest estate and manages these areas on behalf of its investors. These volumes are included under in all of the tables and analyses in this report, as the land belongs to, even though the decision when to harvest rests with IForUT. Following the clearfell of these areas, the lands revert to which has the replanting obligation. A similar situation relates to those areas of the estate where AIB Investment Managers have purchased the harvesting rights. Sector ROI: The COFORD-funded private sector forecast data, which were smoothed at national level, were used (Phillips et al. 29). These included reductions in volume to take account of harvest losses which varied with harvest type and species. The private sector forecast (Phillips et al. 29) highlighted the lack of information on the accessibility of private forests. The forecast volumes were adjusted to exclude thinnings from small plots and those plantations with a potential uneconomic forest roading requirement. : publishes a volume forecast based on forest management plans for the forests under its stewardship every five years with the most recent being Forecast 2 ( 2). This provides detailed volume information for years For the period 26 to 22, annual estmates are provided, while for 22 to 225 an average five year figure is provided. Although the published data are for a 5 year period, there are unpublished forecast volumes available for a further five years. revised its forecast estimates to (a) include only volumes from -owned forests, (b) take account of harvest losses, (c) exclude those areas 2 which for a variety of reasons, principally accessibility, are unlikely to be harvestable based on a continuation of current conditions and (d) provide a further volume assortment category (tip-7 cm). In addition, adjusted the forecast volumes to provide an estimate for the last two years, i.e. 227 and 228, of this series of forecast tables. does not currently estimate the volume for broadleaved species in its forecasts but has plans to do so in the near future. The volumes available for processing exclude hardwoods and firewood. The data for 29 are provisional and the best available on The forecast volumes for private sector ROI in 27 and 28 are from Gallagher and O Carroll 2 and have been adjusted for harvest loss, while for 29 volumes are from Phillips et al estimates based on historical analysis that these areas can account for between, to 5, m 3 per annum. 4

13 When comparing tables for volume in this all Ireland forecast and s Roundwood Supply Forecast 2-25, it is important to note that the data in both documents use the same information but they are presented in a different manner as outlined below. Farm Partnership volumes IForUT volumes All Ireland Forecast Forecast 2 Excluded from the forecast as this Included in Forecast 2. volume is part of ROI volume. Included in the forecast where Excluded from Forecast unless owns the land otherwise stated. Northern Ireland Forest Service and Sector: Northern Ireland (NI) production forecast data are based on softwood availability from the Northern Ireland Forest Service () and potential softwood availability from the private sector within Northern Ireland. These data are maintained in a manner consistent with the requirements of the UK Forecast of Softwood Availability (Halsall et al. 25). The softwood availability volume estimates for Northern Ireland are calculated to the top-diameter classes reported in the UK forecast. The NI top diameter volume estimates have been re-aligned with the top diameter classes from other data sources used in this forecast and the re-aligned volume figures are contained in the relevant tables in this report, accordingly due to the differing conventions used to derive volume size assortments within the UK and ROI, it should be noted that the NI figures in the tables are based on the approach outlined in the following section. The Northern Ireland forecast volumes are compiled using a methodology appropriate to reporting at regional level only and are presented in the tables accordingly. Volumes were adjusted to take account of harvest losses using reduction factors similar to those outlined in the ROI private sector geospatial forecast (Phillips et al. 29). Assortment Volumes and the ROI private sector forecast use Irish based assortment tables for Sitka spruce (Jordan 992) and Forestry Commission assortment tables for all other species. The Northern Ireland forecast uses assortments for all species derived from the Forestry Commission tables. Significant differences in volumes within size categories can arise depending on the assortment tables used. For example, when the private sector forecast for the ROI was run using only the Forestry Commission assortment tables, the volume in the 2+ cm assortment category was reduced by 8.2%.while the volumes in the energy (tip 3 cm), 7 3 cm and 4 9 cm categories increased by 2.5%, 2.6% and 5.% respectively over the forecast period. To convert the forecast volumes to assortment categories comparable with other data sources the following approach was adopted. The volumes in the 4-6 cm and 6-8 cm categories were added to provide an estimate of the volume from 4 to 8 cm; The average clearfell volumes per hectare were estimated based on annual reports for the previous ten years; The range of clearfell mean dbh values associated with the clearfell volumes was estimated from the Forestry Commission yield tables (Forestry Commission 98); The volume assortment for the 2+ cm category for the range of mean diameters was identified. The volume in the 8-2 cm was obtained by subtraction; An estimate of the percentage volume for each size assortment was determined and compared with previously published assortment data (Gallagher and O Carroll 2) for NI for validation; and A final estimate was determined. The resulting assortment volumes based on the approach outlined above should be treated as indicative only. Sawable Volume The sawmilling industry relies on forecast volumes to estimate future supplies of raw material and to plan future investment and marketing. Thus they are primarily interested in the conversion of the 4-9 cm and 2 cm + assortment volumes to sawable raw material which they can process. has over the years collated information on the product outturn e.g. sawlog, pulp and stake from its timber sales and uses this information to estimate the potential end product (PEP) obtainable from the standard size assortments as part 5

14 of its forecasting process. The sawable volume, i.e. the volumes greater than 4 cm top diameter that convert to sawlogs, depends on a combination of (a) species, (b) stage of harvesting (tree size) and (c) stand quality. the three The percentage species groups of the (spruces, 4 cm plus lodgepole assortment pinevolume and other that conifers) converts is to provided sawable material in Tableis 2. relatively Historically consistent between for 65-7% spruce of over the the 4period cm plus of size s assortments forecast converts but can vary to sawable widely volume. year on Further year for research the other and tree testing species. is required The conversion before the factors factors for in the Table three 2species can be groups used to (spruces, generate all-ireland lodgepole pine forecast and tables other conifers) of sawable is volumes. provided The in Table very2. poor Historically conversion between for pine65-7% within the of the 4 cm estate plus relates size assortments to the high converts proportion to of sawable south coastal volume. provenance Further research of lodgepole and testing pine and is required to cropsbefore whichthe have factors been prematurely in Table 2 can clearfelled be used to ingenerate the recent all past, Ireland often forecast with tables severeof basal sawable sweep. volumes. The very poor conversion for pine within the estate relates to the high proportion of south coastal provenance of lodgepole pine and to crops which have been prematurely clearfelled in the recent past, often with severe basal sweep. Table 2: Percentage of Volume >=4 cm that Potentially Converts to Sawable Material. Forecast of standing volume Harvesting Stage Species Group First Thinning Other Thinnings Clearfell Spruce 4% 55% 9% Pine % % % Other Conifers 35% 5% 8% Forecast of Standing Volume The volume forecasts from the three data sources were combined to provide an all Ireland forecast of standing volume. The total forecast of standing volume on the island of Ireland greater than or equal to 7 cm top diameter over the forecast The volume forecasts from the three data sources were combined to provide an all-ireland forecast of standing volume. period is million m 3 (Figure and Table 3). This excludes small volumes of broadleaves apart from those included in The total forecast of standing volume on the island of Ireland greater than or equal to 7 cm top diameter over the forecast the private sector ROI volume. An additional 2.94 million m 3 is potentially available in the tip 7 cm category. The forecast period is million m 3 (Figure and Table 3). This excludes small volumes of broadleaves apart from those included volume increases from an estimated 4.46 million m 3 in 2 to 7.38 million m 3 in 228. Almost all of this increase in volume in the private sector ROI volume. An additional 3. million m 3 is potentially available in the tip 7 cm category. The is from the private sector in the ROI and reflects the uptake in private planting from the late 98s onwards. forecast volume increases from an estimated 4.27 million m 3 in 2 to 7.38 million m 3 in 228. Almost all of this increase An estimated million m 3 or 46% of the total standing forecast volume is in the 2 cm + assortment with 29. in volume is from the private sector in the ROI and reflects the uptake in private planting from the late 98s onwards. million m 3 in the 4-9 cm assortment and million m 3 in the 7-3 cm assortment. An estimated 46.5 million m 3 or 47% of the total standing forecast volume is in the 2 cm + assortment with million m 3 in the 4-9 cm assortment and million m 3 in the 7-3 cm assortment. Volume ( m 3 overbank) sector ROI sector NI Total volume 8 Figure : Forecast of standing volume production Figure : Forecast of Standing Volume. 6

15 Forecast of Net net realisable Realisablevolume Volume A number of adjustments were made to the forecast of standing volume to estimate the net realisable volume (Figure 2). The A number standing of adjustments volumes were were reduced made to the takeforecast accountof ofstanding losses during volume harvesting to estimate and the provide net realisable an estimate volume of the (Figure net volume. 2). The The standing sizevolumes of the harvest were reduced loss varies to take with account harvest of type losses and during species, harvesting being greater and provide for first an estimate and second of the thinnings net volume. andthe for lodgepole size of the pine. harvest loss varies used with its own harvest in-house type and reduction species, factors being greater based on for their first ongoing and second thinnings and for lodgepole pine. analysis of standing used its own volume in-house compared reduction withfactors invoiced based volume. on their The ongoing ROI private analysis sector of standing volume compared with invoiced volumes were volume. adjusted The ROI using private the reduction sector volumes factors in were theadjusted private sector using forecast the reduction (Phillips factors et in the private sector forecast Net Realisable (Phillips al. 29). et These al. 29). two These sets oftwo reduction sets of factors reduction arefactors very similar are very and similar thereand arethere only are minor only minor differences Volume: The which did not differences impact on which overall didadjusted not impact volumes. on overall The standing adjusted volumes. for The standing private volumes sector for NI were adjusted estimatedusing roundwood the same factors and as those private for sector the private NI were sector adjusted ROI. using the same factors as those for the private volume that will sector ROI. potentially be available Net realisable volume: the estimated roundwood volume that will potentially be available to the end touser. the end user. Harvest losses may reduce over time due to improvements in technology and or harvesting practices. No reduction in harvest losses was assumed and the factors were applied equally to all Harvest years within losses the may forecast reduce period. over time due to improvements in technology and/or harvesting practices. No reduction in harvest losses was assumed and the factors were applied equally to all years within the forecast period. The The private private sector sector ROI forecast ROI forecast (Phillips (Phillips et al. 29) et al. highlighted 29) highlighted the lack the of reliable lack of information reliable information on accessibility on accessibility of privately of privately-owned owned plantations. plantations. Based on a Based geospatial on a geospatial analysis, the analysis, forecast the volumes forecast were volumes adjusted were to adjusted exclude thinnings to exclude from thinnings small plots from small and those plots plantations and those plantations with a potential with a uneconomic potential uneconomic forest roading forest requirement. roading requirement. These areas These were areas assigned were assigned a no thinning a nothinning regime and regime assumed and assumed to be harvestable to be harvestable at time of at clearfell. time of clearfell. This resulted This resulted in an estimate in an estimate of the net of the realisable net realisable volume volume which which showed showed a reduction a reduction of 32% of in 32% thinning in thinning volumes volumes and an and increase an increase of 4% of in 42% clearfell in clearfell volumes volumes over over the forecast the forecast period. period. The The overall overall net impact net impact was was a reduction a reduction of 4.3% of 3.8% in total in total volume. volume. Approximately,, to 5, to 5, m 3 of m 3 s of s forecast forecast volume volume on on an annual annual basis basis not is not harvested due due mainly mainly to accessibility to difficulties., in in so so far far as as was was possible, identified these areas and adjusted the net forecast volumes accordingly to provide an estimate of the net realisable volume. Harvest Losses Range 4.5% to 25% Varies with harvest stage and species Accessibility + Other Factors Range % to 25% Varies with harvest area and roading infrastructure 77% - 9% Forecast Net Volume Forecast Standing Volume Forecast Net Volume Forecast Net Realisable Volume Harvested Volume Figure 2: Methodology to Forecast Net Realisable Volume. Figure 2: Methodology to forecast net realisable volume. 7

16 The net forecast volumes for were not adjusted as issues around accessibility were already taken into account in the underlying forecast data. The harvested volumes for the three years 27 to 29 varied from 77% to 9% of the forecast net volume (Table ). The period was characterised by very difficult market conditions for roundwood. Actual harvested volumes will vary depending on future market conditions and may be smaller or greater than the net realisable volume. Tables 4 to 7 provide an estimate of the potential net realisable volume for the island of Ireland by size assortment, species and harvest type while Table 8 provides an estimate of the harvest areas for thinnings and clearfell. Tables 9 to 6 provide a forecast of potential net realisable volumes at county level for a number of assortment categories and for the main species groups. Northern Ireland is included as a separate entry in these tables. While the data has been smoothed at national level during the compilation of the stand data used to generate the Forecast 26, no smoothing was undertaken for the private sector ROI forecast volumes at a county level (Phillips et al. 29). Due to this non-smoothing of the private sector forecast data, there are minor differences in the total volumes between the county and national forecasts. Appendix provides a detailed breakdown of the forecast volumes for the ROI by thinning category and by clearfell. There is an increasing need to inform policy makers, academia and potential investors on the potential availability of wood fibre volumes for energy use. To address this requirement, an Addendum providing an estimate of potential wood fibre availability for energy has been added to this report. The total forecast of net realisable volume production for the island of Ireland is estimated as being 85.6 million m 3 with an additional 2.4 million m 3 potentially available in the tip-7 cm category. The forecast volume increases from 3.79 million m 3 in 2 to 6.95 million m 3 in 228. While the volumes available within the ROI almost double over the forecast period, increasing from 3.35 million m 3 in 2 to 6.4 million m 3 in 228, due to increased volumes from the private sector, the volumes available within NI show only a moderate increase of the order of 2%, increasing from.45 million m 3 in 2 to.54 million m 3 in 228. Volume ( m 3 overbank) sector ROI sector NI Total volume 8 Figure 3: Forecast of net realisable volume production, Despite the almost doubling of the all Ireland forecast total net realisable volume by 228, there is a more modest increase in volume in the 7-3 cm assortment of the order of 3%, with the volume within this category peaking at.9 million m 3 in 22 (Table 4 and Figure 4). Forecast volume in the 4-9 cm assortment shows a significant increase from.8 million m 3 in 2 to 2. million m 3 in 228, while the volume in the 2 cm plus assortment more than doubles from.88 million m 3 to 3.92 million m 3 within the same period. 8

17 Volume ( m 3 overbank) Top diameter category 2 cm+ 7-3 cm 4-9 cm tip-7 cm 8 Figure 4: Forecast of net realisable volume by size category, Although there have been major changes in support measures to encourage the planting of broadleaves and more diverse conifer species over the past ten to fifteen years within the ROI, this has not impacted significantly on the forecast volume by species group. Spruce, which includes all spruce species, with an estimated total volume production of 7.36 million m 3 over the forecast period continues to dominate forecast volumes, accounting for 84% of forecast conifer production (Table 6 and Figure 5). Lodgepole pine with 7.84 million m 3 accounts for almost 9% of total forecast volume, while the Other Conifers species group with 5.66 million m 3 accounts for 7%. Spruce Lodgepole pine Other conifers Volume ( m 3 overbank) 8 Figure 5: Forecast of net realisable volume by species category,

18 Volume from thinnings, excluding the private sector NI, totals million m 3 and increases from.9 million m 3 in 2 to a peak of.92 million m 3 in 228 (Table 7). The proportion of thinning volume to total volume increases up to 222 and then begins to decline as more clearfell volume becomes available from the private sector in the ROI. It is important to note that the volumes associated with second, third and subsequent thinnings are directly dependant upon the first thinning being undertaken. While the ROI private sector volumes have been adjusted to allow for accessibility, they are based on the assumption of continued state support for forest roads. The impact of any further reduction in first thinning areas would be greatest over the first ten years and would lessen during the second half of the forecast as increased areas are clearfelled due to non thin crops being assigned a shorter rotation length. Clearfells, excluding the private sector NI, account for million m 3 and annual clearfell volumes remain relatively stable around 2.5 million m 3 up to 22 and thereafter increase to 5. million m 3 in 228 having peaked at 5.37 million m 3 in the previous year. The volume available from clearfells, assumes a continuation of the current clearfell silvicultural system. Any significant change to continuous cover type silvicultural systems would impact on the relative volumes from clearfells and thinnings. The total annual thinning area is estimated to increase from 22,8 ha in 2 to 49,4 ha by 228 with the most significant increase coming from the ROI private sector (Table 8 and Figure 6). Clearfell areas in contrast fluctuate within the range 7,2 ha to 8, ha up to 28 and show a significant increase thereafter due to the forecast clearfell of no thin crops in the private sector. Thinnings Clearfell 8 Figure 6: Forecast of harvest areas (ha). At a county level, Cork with an estimated total potential volume of 9. million m 3, is the largest contributor to total net realisable volume (Table 9) followed by Donegal (6.42 million m 3 ), Galway (6.4 million m 3 ), Clare (5.25 million m 3 ), Kerry (5.2 million m 3 ) and Tipperary (5.9 million m 3 ). Tables through to 3 show the breakdown of forecast potential volume production by size assortment, including tip-7 cm. Regarding forecast net realisable volume by size assortment category (Tables to 3) counties Cork (7. million m 3 ), Donegal (4.72 million m 3 ), Galway (4.66 million m 3 ), Clare (4.4 million m 3 ), Wicklow (4.5 million m 3 ) and Tipperary (4.3 million m 3 ) are the major contributors for volume assortments 4 cm and greater. The forecast net realisable volume for spruce species (Table 4) follows a broadly similar pattern to total volume production with counties Cork (7.8 million m 3 ), Donegal (5.2 million m 3 ), Clare (4.6 million m 3 ), Galway (4.53 million m 3 ), Kerry (4.5 million m 3 ) and Tipperary (4.2 million m 3 ) being the major contributors to spruce volume. The forecast of potential lodgepole pine production (Table 5) is concentrated in a relatively small number of counties Mayo (.89 million m 3 ), Galway (.25 million m 3 ) and Donegal (.3 million m 3 ).

19 References 2. Forecast 2: Roundwood Supply Forecast Eoin O Driscoll, Drima Marketing, Goatstown, Dublin. Forestry Commission 98. Yield Models for Forest Management. Forestry Commission Booklet No. 48. HM Stationery Office, London Gallagher, G. and J. O Carroll, 2. Forecast of Roundwood Production from the Forests of Ireland COFORD, Dublin Halsall, L., Gilbert, J., Matthews, R. and Fairgrieve, M. (25). United Kingdom: New Forecast of Softwood Availability. Downloadable from Jordan, P Volume Assortment Tables for Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis Bong. Carr.) in Ireland. M..Agr. Sc. (Forestry) Thesis. National University of Ireland. 33p Phillips, H., Redmond, J., MacSiúrtáin, M. and Nemesova, A. 29. Roundwood production from private sector forests A geospatial forecast. COFORD, Dublin

20 Table 3: Forecast of potential standing volume production by assortment category ( m 3 overbark). Sector ROI Sector NI TOTALS Year Tip - 7cm 7-3 cm 4-9 cm 2cm + Tip - 7cm 7-3 cm 4-9 cm 2cm + Tip - 7cm 7-3 cm 4-9 cm 2cm + Tip - 7cm 7-3 cm 4-8 cm 9-2 cm 2cm + Tip - 7cm 7-3 cm 4-9 cm 2cm , ,9,272 2, , ,23,326, , ,53,322, , ,8,47 2, , ,22,442, , ,27,49, , ,3,479, , ,28,45, , ,346,559 2, , ,492,782 2, , ,443,72 2, , ,48,74 2, , ,35,74 2, , ,38,75 2, , ,27,787 2, , ,66,83 3, ,25, , ,52 2,48 3, ,4, , ,8 2,63 4,37 Totals,62 9,749 9,224 7, ,32,97 6,88 3,24 83,485,772,2 5,594 2,943 22,463 29,9 43,894 Notes sector ROI The volumes are based on the published private sector forecast. The thinning volumes are dependant upon the necessary infrastructure being in place and on market conditions. The volumes include forecast volumes for broadleaves. 2 sector NI The volumes are for confers only. Assortment volumes are inferred and are based on a combination of Forestry Commission assortment tables and mean clearfell diameters from no thin yield tables for Sitka Spruce. 3 The volumes are for conifers only and are based on s published year forecast plus s draft revised forecast and refer exclusively to volumes coming from lands owned by. The volumes for years 28 and onwards are estimates. 4 The second and third columns are taken from the forecast. The volume in the 2 cm + category is based on Forestry Commission assortment tables and average clearfell diameters within the range cm. The volume in the 9-2 cm category is derived by subtracting the 7-3 cm and 4-8 cm from the total volume. Forecast values for 227 and 228 are an average of the previous -year period. 2

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