1 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q Nordic electric vehicle market overview with the latest sales figures, infrastructure overview and the main market tendencies OKTOBER 2015
2 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q ABBREVIATIONS AND TERMINOLOGY Charging plug Plugs to be inserted in electric vehicles to charge them Charging point Unit/location, which may have one or more charging plugs EV Electric Vehicle (car or van) PHEV Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle YTD Year-To-Date Car segments used in Insero Quarterly: A-segment = Mini cars (e.g. Fiat 500) B-segment = Small cars (e.g. Renault Clio) C-segment = Medium cars (e.g. VW Golf) D-segment = Large cars (e.g. BMW 3 series) E-segment = Executive cars (e.g. Mercedes E Class) Van-segment = Vans (e.g. VW Transporter)
3 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q INTRODUCTION TO INSERO QUARTERLY What is Insero Quarterly? A quarterly publication visually presenting: Nordic electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) sales in the last quarter and Year-To-Date (YTD) and divided into car segments. Includes Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland. Overview of the charging infrastructure roll-out in the individual countries. Status on the national EV incentives. Cross-border price comparisons on specific EV models and conventional cars in several car segments, including vans. National comparisons between new EVs and similar conventional cars. Who is Insero Quarterly for? The short answer is: Everyone with an interest in the Nordic EV market! 10 specific target audience groups are: Public authorities/municipalities Interest groups and professional organisations Energy companies/providers Infrastructure operators Suppliers to the (e-)mobility industry Car manufacturers/importers/leasers ICT/service companies Other manufacturers/service providers with e-mobility growth potential Consultants International companies looking at the Nordic market Why is Insero Quarterly relevant to my business? IQ provides an unprecedented and continuously updated overview of the Nordic e-mobility market situation, which in turn leads to: Concrete market data to form a basis for a strategic/product decision Cohesive market insights painting the full picture of the respective countries and their current e-mobility market on prices and sales A common work of reference for the industry across the Nordic countries Behind IQ Insero E-Mobility: A team specialised in e-mobility Insero E-Mobility is the leading Nordic e-mobility consultancy company and offers a variety of consultancy services ranging from operational consultancy to strategic analyses and complete business strategies within e-mobility. Integration and implementation We offer hands-on consultancy to municipalities and companies looking to integrate electric vehicles in their car fleets. We can offer concrete insights about the various available vehicle options as well as the accompanying charging infrastructure possibilities. Analysis and strategy The e-mobility market is still in its infancy and under constant development. We specialise in analysing its trends and operators internationally too. We translate these extensive insights into tailor-made analyses, go-to-market strategies and concrete business development for our customers targeting the market. NEXT EDITION The next edition of Insero Quarterly (Q4 2015) is out in late January DISCLAIMER The figures behind the statistical output in this publication are obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable. However, we accept no legal liability of any kind for the publication contents, nor any information contained therein nor conclusions drawn from it by any part. The text in the bullets represents what we have derived to be some of the most relevant points, but Insero E-Mobility accepts no responsibility for the consequences of any actions resulting from the information in this publication. All rights reserved. The publication may not be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior consent of the publishers. Single graphs or diagrams may be used in public presentations to highlight certain industry developments, as long as Insero E-Mobility is clearly and visibly credited.
4 TABLE OF CONTENTS INSERO QUARTERLY, Q EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NORDIC AND NATIONAL 5 2. NORDIC SALES STATISTICS FROM Q & YEAR-TO-DATE BATTERY CAPACITY CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW NATIONAL INCENTIVES FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES PRICE COMPARISONS BETWEEN ELECTRIC AND CONVENTIONAL VEHICLES SOURCES & CONTACT US 38
5 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INSERO QUARTERLY, Q NORDIC WHAT THE LATEST NORDIC FIGURES TELL US After Q3 2015, the total number of electric vehicles (including plug-in hybrids) out on the Nordic roads have surpassed 85,000. Check out the figures While Q3 was acceptable overall, Denmark was the only country with a new sales record. Norway had the lowest selling quarter this year, while Sweden and Finland dropped slightly compared to Q2 Check out the figures Q3 of 2015 showed a drop of 1,200 plug-in vehicles compared to Q2, but the YTD numbers show a 64% increase across the Nordic region compared to the same period of Check out the figures While the A-segment is still relatively big in Norway, the larger segments are responsible for most sales. Check out the figures The infrastructure roll-out continues its steady expansion. Norway is changing from slow points to fast chargers, which has decreased their total number of charging points. In the rest of the Nordic region, the development continues with no major news. Check out the figures Currently, the EV Incentives are stable and well functioning in Norway and Sweden, while Finland is still some way from having incentives. Denmark has added taxes to EVs as the only country in the world, which will be phased in over a 5 year period. Check out more With the amount of battery capacity available, the Nordic countries should start implementing EV batteries in their reserve capacity market. Real life demonstrations are planned in Denmark, which might put V2G in commercial use within 18 months. Check out the figures
6 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INSERO QUARTERLY, Q DENMARK THE MAIN TENDENCIES FROM DENMARK Q has set a new record in registrations with 913 vehicles sold. Check out the figures With more than 2,000 vehicles sold, the record from 2014 has already been broken Check out the figures Infrastructure roll-out continues with a lot of semi-fast chargers and further expansion of the fast charging network. Check out the figures In terms of incentives for electric vehicles, Insero expects sales to increase in Q4 as a result of the phasing-in of EVs in the registration system. Check out more With Denmark already pursuing a Smart Grid strategy, the first real life tests of V2G technology are expected to commence before year end. Check out more PHEVs are starting to take off as several models are being introduced. Check Out the figures
7 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INSERO QUARTERLY, Q NORWAY THE MAIN TENDENCIES FROM NORWAY The total number of electric vehicles in Norway is now more than 65,000. Norway continues its reign as the EV capital of the world. Q3 sales are almost at 8,000 vehicles, which is a decrease compared to Q2. Check out the figures Q3 of 2015 showed that the EV trend will continue at a slower pace. Q3 was the lowest selling quarter of the year Check out the figures The distribution of sold vehicles across segments is beginning to resemble the overall sales distribution, although the E-segment is still considerably bigger in the plug-in vehicle sales. With almost 2,000 VW e-golf sold in Q3, it is by far the most wanted EV in the Nordic Region. Check out the figures Not much is new with the Norwegian incentives, as we are waiting for a plan for phasing out some of the softer incentives Check out more Battery storage capacity is up by 170 MWh this quarter, which corresponds to 12%. Check out the figures
8 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INSERO QUARTERLY, Q SWEDEN THE MAIN TENDENCIES FROM SWEDEN With more than 3,400 plug-in vehicles sold in Q3, Sweden is consistently beating the 2014 sales. But Q3 sales are down by 600 compared to Q2. Check out the figures YTD, 2015 saw an increase of 179% in sales compared to the same period in This is the best development in the Nordic region. Check out the figures The plug-in hybrid vehicle segment is still responsible for more than half of the Swedish electric vehicle sales (54%). New PHEV models will strengthen this development. The infrastructure roll-out is continuing at a reasonable pace, although the number of fast charging points could be improved. Check out the figures The Super Green Car Rebate has been extremely successful. This year, there is no uncertainty about the subsidy as actions towards it have been taken. Check out more Sweden has had a respectable increase of 43MWh in battery capacity this quarter. This is hampered by the large amount of PHEVs. Check out the figures
9 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INSERO QUARTERLY, Q FINLAND THE MAIN TENDENCIES FROM FINLAND The total number of electric vehicles in Finland is now 1,347. Finland also remains the Nordic country with the least number of electric vehicle models available to purchase. Check out the figures Finland had almost the same sales in Q3 as in Q2 but was 11 vehicles short of breaking their own record. Check out the figures The PHEVs make up 60% of the Finnish electric vehicle sales, which is unmatched in the Nordic Region. With the Finnish EV sales still not really taking off, the infrastructure roll-out is also moving along at a slow pace. Insero is starting to get an overview of the exact numbers. Check out the figures The electric vehicle incentives in Finland are still non-existing. Insero expected a plan for this within the year but are sceptic that it will actually happen. Check out more The available battery capacity in Finland was added 6 MWh, primarily from PHEVs. Check out the figures
10 TABLE OF CONTENTS INSERO QUARTERLY, Q EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NORDIC AND NATIONAL 5 2. NORDIC SALES STATISTICS FROM Q & YEAR-TO-DATE BATTERY CAPACITY CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW NATIONAL INCENTIVES FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES PRICE COMPARISONS BETWEEN ELECTRIC AND CONVENTIONAL VEHICLES SOURCES & CONTACT US 38
11 2. SALES STATISTICS STOCK OF ELECTRIC AND PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES Nordic The total number of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the Nordic countries rose by 10,735 vehicles, bringing it over 85,000 total. 11 DK TOTAL EV & PHEV STOCK DK NO SW FI NO SE FI The total stock has increased by 3,854 plug-in vehicles since As a result, the total stock has risen 63% so far in Despite record sales in Q in Denmark and solid sales in Sweden, a slowdown in Norwegian sales will most likely push the 100,000 mark into Q If just vehicles are sold in Q4, sales will have risen by min. 80% for four consecutive years YTD 2015 SW 15% FI 2% DK 6% COUNTRIES SHARE OF THE TOTAL EV & PHEV STOCK Norway fell back to 77% of the total Nordic EV and PHEV stock. Insero expects this trend to continue as more and more PHEV models are being released. As the only Nordic country, Denmark actually topped the sales of Q2. 77% NO With more PHEV models arriving over the next year, Insero expects that this will enable sustained growth in sales of PHEVs and EVs.
12 2. SALES STATISTICS ANNUAL SALES OF ELECTRIC AND PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES, YTD Nordic With the tax exemption running out in a few months, Denmark has had the best Q3 of all. At the same time, Norway and Sweden have seen slightly declining sales. 12 DK NO SE FI EV & PHEV SALES PER YEAR As expected, the total 2014 sales were topped already in august All of the Nordic countries have surpassed their total sales of Insero expects an end-of-year sprint in Denmark as EVs will be taxed from 1 st of January Although Finland is still lacking behind, the increased number of plug-in models is expected to result in a rise in sales FI 2% DK 7% COUNTRIES SHARE OF SALES YTD 2015 SW 15% While Denmark has risen, Norway and Sweden have declined a little. However, this is not enough to change the countries share of sales. Insero expects Denmark to increase their share with a few percent in the next two quarters before the tax exemption runs out. Also, the increase in PHEV models makes it likely that Sweden and Finland will increase their share. 77% NO For Denmark, the rise will be momentary as the highest selling vehicles will increase in price next year due to taxes.
13 2. SALES STATISTICS NORDIC OVERVIEW YEAR-TO-DATE AND Q Nordic The Nordic electric vehicle sales in Q3 were slower than Q2 in 3 out of 4 countries, with Denmark being the exception. Still, sales are rising year-over-year. 13 DK NO SE FI jan feb mar Q apr may jun Q jul aug sep YTD % Q YTD 2014 EV SALES 2015 Q3 has continued the high sales of 2015 with a year-overyear increase in sales 64% compared to Simultaneously, however, the figures also suggest that the 147% increase in sales in 2014 will not be matched in Although Q3 was a good quarter, it didn t match Q it was slightly lower. Insero expects a stronger Q4 as this has been the tendency in both 2013 and The numbers on top indicate accumulated Nordic EV sales in the given period DK NO SE FI % EV SALES Q The relative development in sales in Q3 is somewhat lower than the previous quarter with an increase of 60% compared to a 87% increase in Q2. Interestingly, Denmark is the only country with varying sales over the 3 months, while the rest of the countries have seen continuously stable sales. In a relative perspective, Finland has almost tripled its sales compared to Q3 2014, while Denmark is not far behind. Both Norway and Sweden has seen minor rises. Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Q Q3 2014
14 2. SALES STATISTICS NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO DATE 2015 Denmark Q3 was the best quarter ever with sales approaching 1,000 vehicles. 14 A-segment +127% B-segment C-segment D-segment E-segment PHEV Other Van-segment EV SALES 2015 Q3 sales rose significantly compared to Q2, totalling 913 vehicles. 400 BMW i3 s were registered for a new car sharing concept in Copenhagen. The YTD sales have more than doubled compared to the same period in 2014, reaching 127% so far jan-15 feb-15 mar- 15 Q1 apr-15 may - 15 jun-15 Q2 jul-15 aug-15 sep-15 Q YTD 2015 YTD 2014 With new taxation rules in place from January 2016, we expect to see increased sales of more luxurious EVs in Q4 2015, as these vehicles will have a much higher price from the 1 st of January The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below). Van-segment Other 1% PHEV 4% 18% A-segment B-segment 2% 9% SEGMENTS SHARE OF 2015 SALES The B-segment has seen an increase of 2% since Q It now accounts for 9% of the total sales. The C-segment regained a lot of its earlier loss, now forming 28% of total sales. 28% C-segment The E-segment is up again by 4%, totalling 38% As expected, the Van-segment has seen a decrease in its share of total sales, going from 28% to 18% E-segment 38% 0% D-segment Although the number of PHEV models has increased, their share of sales has dropped to 4%.
15 2. SALES STATISTICS NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO-DATE 2015 Norway Despite still being leader in the Nordic region, Q3 is the lowest selling quarter this year for Norway. 15 A-segment +74% B-segment C-segment D-segment E-segment PHEV Other Van-segment EV SALES 2015 The Norwegian sales YTD 2015 are 74% higher than the same period in 2014, down from 75% in Q2. Q3 was the lowest selling quarter of the year. On the other hand, month by month sales are consistently above vehicles. Plug-in vehicles still make up 20% of all sold passenger cars and vans in Norway. jan-15 feb-15 mar-15 Q1 apr-15 may -15 jun-15 Q2 jul-15 aug-15 sep-15 Q YTD 2015 YTD 2014 The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below) PHEV 20% E-segment 13% 0% D-segment Other Van-segment A-segment 0% 10% 2% B-segment 7% 48% C-segment SEGMENTS SHARE OF 2015 SALES The E-segment has stopped its decline and now accounts for 13% of total sales. The C-segment stabilised at 48%. The A-segment and Van-segment are unchanged. Generally, the distribution of Norway is resembling the distribution for conventional vehicles more and more, while still not being a perfect match.
16 2. SALES STATISTICS NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO-DATE 2015 Sweden Slightly disappointing sales in Q3, as sales declined by 604 vehicles 16 A-segment B-segment C-segment D-segment E-segment PHEV Other Van-segment jan-15 feb-15 mar Q apr may jun Q jul aug-15 sep Q YTD % YTD 2014 EV SALES 2015 Q continues the very positive trend for this year. Although sales declined compared to Q2, it is still higher than any other quarter Sweden benefits from the PHEV models available, as these are very attractive due to the taxation system. Now, they make up 54% of the total sales. Comparing YTD 2015 with the same period last year shows a remarkable increase of 179%. Insero expects the positive trend to continue as more PHEV models are launched. The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below) Van-segment A-segment Other B-segment 0% 2% 6% 3% 21% C-segment SEGMENTS SHARE OF 2015 SALES PHEVs continue their strong grip on market shares and are up by 1% to now 54%. The E-segment continues to grow. The market share has increased from 13% to 14% PHEV 54% 0% D-segment The C-segment has declined by 3%, while segment A, B and Van account for the remaining 10%. 14% E-segment
17 2. SALES STATISTICS NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO-DATE 2015 Finland Finland continues to drag along in the transition from gas to electricity % A-segment B-segment C-segment D-segment E-segment PHEV Other Van-segment EV SALES 2015 Despite low sales, Finland is experiencing a solid increase in terms of growth. It is the PHEVs that are driving the sales up. This indicates that we will continue to see growth in Finland in the coming months and years. Only Tesla manages to take a real share of the sales, while the other EVs are selling in 1 digit batches jan-15 feb-15 mar-15 Q1 apr-15 may - 15 jun-15 Q2 jul-15 aug-15 sep-15 Q YTD 2015 YTD 2014 The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below) Van-segment A-segment Other B-segment 1% C-segment 0% 15% 0% 1% D-segment 0% SEGMENTS SHARE OF 2015 SALES Plug-in electric hybrid vehicles increases to 60% of sales in 2015 compared to 53% in Still the largest share in the region. 23% E-segment The E-segment has increased to 23%, which Insero expects to be a result of Tesla opening their first dealership in the country. PHEV 60% The C-segment represents 15%, down from 18% but spread across a number of different models.
18 2. SALES STATISTICS NORDIC SALES IN THE A- AND B-SEGMENTS Nordic B-segment is continuing to grow while A-segment keeps declining. The two segments are almost equally sized % EV SALES IN THE A-SEGMENT Q % % % C-ZERO imiev ION ELECTRIC DRIVE E-UP! The A-segment share has dropped by 28% compared to Q This is the 2nd consecutive quarter where sales have dropped. Interestingly, both the imiev and the Ion have sold better than the previous year. The big decline is due to lower sales of the E-Up! With no new vehicles announced in this segment, Insero expects sales to remain at a low level, and drops of this size are not expected to happen again soon. jul-14 jul-15 aug-14 aug-15 sep-14 sep-15 Q Q The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below) +89% +81% % +111% Soul EV ZOE EV SALES IN THE B-SEGMENT Q The B-segment continues its positive trend, getting closer to the A-segment. Despite the Kia Soul now being available in Sweden, the majority of the increase is due to the Renault Zoe now being available without battery leasing. The Kia Soul EV still hasn t experienced great sales, but it is also suffering from not being available in Denmark and Finland. jul-14 jul-15 aug-14 aug-15 sep-14 sep-15 Q Q3 2015
19 2. SALES STATISTICS NORDIC SALES IN THE C- AND PHEV-SEGMENTS Nordic The C-segment continues the high sales. The PHEVs still rise in their year-over-year comparison, but declined compared to Q % EV SALES IN THE C-SEGMENT Q % +42% jul-14 jul-15 aug-14 aug sep % sep Q Q i3 FOCUS ELECTRIC B-CLASS ED LEAF FLUENCE E-GOLF C30 ELECTRIC The C-segment has experienced a rise of 55% compared to Q due to the Mercedes B-class entering the market and higher sales of both the BMW i3 and VW e-golf. For the first time, the Mercedes B-Class ED is above 500 vehicles in a quarter, while Nissan Leaf has declined by 17%. Compared to Q2 2015, sales have increased by 833 vehicles. As expected, sales have risen and are expected to continue with an updated Leaf battery. The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below) +116% +189% % % A3 E-TRON i3 (REX) OUTLANDER GOLF GTE V60 PLUG-IN OTHER EV SALES IN THE PHEV-SEGMENT Q With a 116% increase in sales compared to Q3 2014, the PHEV sales continue the growth at a steady pace. The Golf GTE has taken the lead in this segment, as the Mitsubishi Outlander has experienced a steep drop. Compared to Q2, all of the top selling vehicles have seen declining sales, except the VW Golf GTE. New PHEVs include BMW X5 40d and Mercedes GLE jul-14 jul-15 aug-14 aug-15 sep-14 sep-15 Q Q3 2015
20 2. SALES STATISTICS NORDIC SALES IN THE E- AND VAN-SEGMENTS Nordic E-segment declining again after peaking in Q2. The Van-segment is losing some of its momentum % MODEL S EV SALES IN THE E-SEGMENT Q Compared to same quarter in 2014, a rise of 121% has occurred % % % The E-segment s share of sales is slowly declining, but it is still 2 nd surpassed only by the C-segment. Insero still expects the E-segment to decline slightly when Tesla launches its new Crossover SUV. As the availability date of the Model X is uncertain, Insero is unsure when this will occur. jul-14 jul-15 aug-14 aug-15 sep-14 sep-15 Q Q The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below) +36% +163% % % BERLINGO VITO e-nv200 PARTNER KANGOO EV SALES IN THE VAN-SEGMENT Q The Van-segment continues to rise with regards to sales in Q compared to the previous quarter. This trend is not as significant as expected though, as Q3 had only 248 vans sold across the Nordic Region. The Nissan e-nv200 seems to be the best selling van. The vans suffer from a shorter range than other EVs jul-14 jul-15 aug-14 aug-15 sep-14 sep-15 Q Q3 2015
21 TABLE OF CONTENTS INSERO QUARTERLY, Q EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NORDIC AND NATIONAL 5 2. NORDIC SALES STATISTICS FROM Q & YEAR-TO-DATE BATTERY CAPACITY CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW NATIONAL INCENTIVES FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES PRICE COMPARISONS BETWEEN ELECTRIC AND CONVENTIONAL VEHICLES SOURCES & CONTACT US 38
22 3. BATTERY CAPACITY V2G POTENTIAL IN NORDIC REGION Nordic Available battery capacity continues to rise. In this quarter alone, it has risen by 264 MWh across the Nordic countries EV PHEV Battery Capacity Q Since Q2, the total battery capacity has increased by 15% to a total of 1991 MWh in the Nordic region PHEVs are responsible for 8,3% of the total battery capacity. As for the biggest contributors, the Mitsubishi Outlander has been pushed out of the top 5 in the Nordic region, being replaced by the BMW i3. Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Overview of the development in total available battery capacity in the Nordic countries. MWh Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q EV Top 5 Models in Q3 / the Nordic Region 1. Tesla Model S 86,4 MWh 2. Volkswagen E-Golf 49,3 MWh 3. Nissan Leaf 30,1 MWh 4. BMW i3 21,0 MWh 5. Renault Zoe 8,5 MWh
23 3. BATTERY CAPACITY V2G POTENTIAL IN NORDIC REGION Denmark With a 27% increase in the overall capacity, the market is growing at a fast pace, which is expected to continue throughout the year EV PHEV Battery Capacity Q PHEVs contribute with only 1,7%. Insero expects this share to get smaller until 2016 and slowly increase by then. The overall capacity in Denmark has increased by 27%. The Nissan env-200 is pushed out of the top 5 contributors, which was expected as it only held its place because of a large order by Avis. It is replaced by the VW e-golf, although with a low contribution. Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Overview of the development in total available battery capacity in Denmark MWh Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q EV Top 5 Models in Q3 / Denmark 1. Tesla Model S 24,3 MWh 2. BMW i3 7,7 MWh 3. Renault Zoe 2,2 MWh 4. Nissan Leaf 0,4 MWh 5. VW e-golf 0,4 MWh
24 3. BATTERY CAPACITY V2G POTENTIAL IN NORDIC REGION Norway Tesla is no longer the largest battery capacity contributor in Norway EV PHEV Battery Capacity Q In Norway, PHEVs contribute with 4,3% of the battery capacity, a slight increase Capacity increased by 13% and has more than tripled in the last 18 months. Renault Zoe is out of the top 5, replaced by the BMW i3, and Tesla Model S is dethroned in terms of battery capacity by the VW e-golf. Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Overview of the development in total available battery capacity in Norway MWh Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q EV Top 5 Models in Q3 / Norway 1. VW e-golf 48,0 MWh 2. Tesla Model S 41,3 MWh 3. Nissan Leaf 25,7 MWh 4. Mercedes B-Class ED 14,2 MWh 5. BMW i3 12,8 MWh
25 3. BATTERY CAPACITY V2G POTENTIAL IN NORDIC REGION Sweden Lots of plug-in vehicles, but relatively low total battery capacity EV PHEV Battery Capacity Q PHEVs contribute with 33% of the total battery capacity. Total battery capacity increased by 25%, with an even larger potential when EVs get more price competitive. Sweden is the only country where 2 PHEVs are in the top 5 of largest contributors. And Volvo V60 is pushing at 6 th place. Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Overview of the development in total available battery capacity in Sweden MWh Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q EV PHEV Top 5 in Q3 / Sweden 1. Tesla Model S 20,9 MWh 2. Mitsubishi Outlander 5,4 MWh 3. Nissan Leaf 4,2 MWh 4. Renault Zoe 2,9 MWh 5. VW Golf GTE 1,5 MWh
26 3 BATTERY CAPACITY V2G POTENTIAL IN NORDIC REGION Finland 3 PHEVs in the top 5 shows that it will be several years before a critical battery capacity is reached EV PHEV Battery Capacity Q PHEVs are making up 60% of total sales in Finland this year, while their batteries make up 22% of the total battery capacity. With a total capacity of only 27 MWh, it will still be a while before the capacity can be used for ancillary services. A new model has broken into the top 5, pushing Golf GTE out. The Porsche Cayenne E-Hybrid debuts at #4 while the Mitsubishi Outlander jumps to #2. Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Overview of the development in total available battery capacity in Finland MWh Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q EV PHEV Top 5 in Q / Finland Tesla Model S Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Nissan Leaf Porsche Cayenne E-Hybrid AUDI A3 E-Tron 4,42 MWh 0,43 MWh 0,19 MWh 0,15 MWh 0,15 MWh
27 TABLE OF CONTENTS INSERO QUARTERLY, Q EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NORDIC AND NATIONAL 5 2. NORDIC SALES STATISTICS FROM Q & YEAR-TO-DATE BATTERY CAPACITY CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW NATIONAL INCENTIVES FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES PRICE COMPARISONS BETWEEN ELECTRIC AND CONVENTIONAL VEHICLES SOURCES & CONTACT US 38
28 4. CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE PUBLIC CHARGING POINTS AND PLUGS Nordic Constantly improving charging networks across the Nordic region. 28 Number of public charging points available (i.e. charging stations/poles) DK 282 NO SW FI Level 1 3,7-7,4 kw Level kw Fastcharging kw Denmark has added 77 charging points since Q2, which are primarily semi-fast charging points, but also a few fast chargers along the highways. Norway has removed some of the slowest charging points and continues to increase the number of accelerated and fast charging stations. Actually, there are 94 fewer charging points available compared to Q2. Sweden has increased their charging points by 68 but has slightly fewer fast charging points available. The rise in charging points are mainly due to the semi-fast charging points. Number of public charging plugs available (e.g. up to three plugs at one charging point) Schuko type 2 Type 1 CCS CHAdeMO Tesla SC other Finland has few charging points, but conversely each has a lot of plugs. Insero are beginning to get an overview of the Finnish charging network, but there are still lack of data. What we can say is that the network is expanding slowly. Note: no completely accurate numbers exist for the Finnish figures, however, Insero has been able to make solid extrapolations based on the information available. Insero has no accurate overview of all the types of plugs, which is why they are all filed under other DK NO SW FI
29 Nordic All of the Nordic countries have less than 3,500 vehicles per charging plug now, with Norway in the lead. At the same time, the plugs, on average, have faster charging than Q2. 29 Number of EVs per charging plug 10 9 EVs per plug DK: In Denmark, the EV/charger ratio is quite low, meaning that there are a lot of plugs available for the individual EV owners. The number of vehicles in general per plug has fallen from 2,412 to 1,762 over the last three months. 3 1 NO: Norway has a much higher ratio, but has also reached a maturity stage where the geographical spread is high. Their number of vehicles pr. plug is actually rising, as many of the Schuko plugs are being removed. DK NO SW FI Number of vehicles per plug SE: In Sweden, the number of EVs per charging plug continues its downward trend from 11 to 9 since Q2. There are still a lot of remote places that aren t covered in terms of chargers, but much of the dense populated regions is covered Vehicles per plug FI: The Finnish numbers are relatively low, but this is a result of the few EVs on the roads. Finland is by far the least developed country when it comes to e- mobility DK NO SW FI
30 TABLE OF CONTENTS INSERO QUARTERLY, Q EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NORDIC AND NATIONAL 5 2. NORDIC SALES STATISTICS FROM Q & YEAR-TO-DATE BATTERY CAPACITY CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW NATIONAL INCENTIVES FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES PRICE COMPARISONS BETWEEN ELECTRIC AND CONVENTIONAL VEHICLES SOURCES & CONTACT US 38
31 5. INCENTIVES COMPARISON OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND CONVENIENCE INCENTIVES Nordic With Danish incentives settled, the incentives across the region are expected to remain unchanged for some time. Softer incentives might be phased out in Norway, while Finland may be introducing incentives before long. 31 Overview of incentives Tax incentives Financial incentives Convenience incentives Denmark Norway In Norway, they are still waiting for a plan to phase out some of the softer incentives. Sweden In Denmark, EVs will be fully integrated in the registration tax system in 2020, with a phasing-in over the next 5 years. This will start in Finland Specific incentives In Sweden, the funds for the Super Green Car Rebate looks as if they will be depleted before the end of 2015, but if the funds are depleted before year-end, the registered vehicles will receive funding from the 2016 budget. Denmark Norway Tax incentives Registration tax exemption Ownership tax exemption Registration tax exemption VAT exemption Road tax exemption Reduced company car tax (50%) Financial incentives Tax reduction (0,13 EUR per kwh) for businesses Free parking spaces Toll road exemption Free public charging Higher mileage allowance Convenience incentives Reserved parking spaces for EVs Differentiated prices Bus lane driving Reserved parking spaces In Finland, there are still no incentives, but the government is discussing a tax credit as in Sweden, although the details are a little different. Also, discussions about bus lane driving and free or cheaper parking spaces are ongoing. While discussions are undergoing, nothing has been decided yet. Sweden Vehicle tax exemption for 5 years* Super green car rebate. Max 4,500 Euro.** None Finland None, but coming soon Cheaper parking/ Free parking None *all Euro 5 or 6 level emission vehicles **a subsidy of 35% of the price difference between a low-emission vehicle and a comparable conventional vehicle
32 TABLE OF CONTENTS INSERO QUARTERLY, Q EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NORDIC AND NATIONAL 5 2. NORDIC SALES STATISTICS FROM Q & YEAR-TO-DATE BATTERY CAPACITY CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW NATIONAL INCENTIVES FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES PRICE COMPARISONS BETWEEN ELECTRIC AND CONVENTIONAL VEHICLES SOURCES & CONTACT US 38
33 6. PRICE COMPARISONS CROSS-BOARDER PRICE COMPARISONS OF EVS, PHEVS AND CONVENTIONAL VEHICLES Nordic A few new models are now available. From a Leaf with an upgraded battery to the X5 in a PHEV version. Also, a few existing models have seen changing prices across countries % % % % % Danmark Norge Sverige Finland 0 0 Golf GTE (PHEV) Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Nissan Leaf Renault Kangoo EV BMW X5 xdrive 40e PRICE COMPARISONS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES Golf GTE, Mitsubishi Outlander and the BMW X5 xdrive 40e are PHEVs. Because of the registration tax, these vehicles are relatively expensive in DK The Nissan Leaf is included with its new 30 kw battery version. Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is currently not available in Denmark, while the Renault Kangoo EV is not available in Finland Note: The highest price variation between two countries is shown in the percentage / Note II: All prices are shown in EUR +162% +115% % +43% % Danmark Norge Sverige Finland Golf GTI Mitsubishi Outlander invite Nissan Juke Visia Renalt Kangoo MBX X5 xdrive 40d PRICE COMPARISONS OF CONVENTIONAL CARS The progressive tax system in Denmark is responsible for the rather large price gaps across countries
34 6. PRICE COMPARISONS EVS VS. COMPARABLE CONVENTIONAL CARS Nordic VW Golf GTE is well received, while the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV continues to be popular despite higher prices % % % % Golf GTI Golf GTE (PHEV) GOLF GTI VS. GOLF GTE Across the Nordic region, the VW Golf GTE is cheaper than its ICE equivalent. In both Norway and Denmark, it is more than 10% cheaper. In Sweden, it is - as the only place in the Nordic region - more expensive than its ICE counterpart. Despite the higher price, the VW Golf GTE has been well received in Sweden, just as it has in Norway. Denmark Norway Sweden Finland +52% % % Mistubishi Outlander Invite Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV MITSUBISHI OUTLANDER INVITE VS. MITSUBISHI OUTLANDER PHEV Despite being more expensive across the region, the Mitsubishi Outlander continues to be among the top sellers in the PHEV-segment. However, it is losing market share to newer PHEV-models. Denmark continues to be the only country where the Outlander in its PHEV edition is unavailable. 0 Denmark Norway Sweden Finland
35 6. PRICE COMPARISONS PHEVS VS. COMPARABLE CONVENTIONAL CARS Nordic New battery option for the Leaf increases price but does not change the overall picture, while the Renault Kangoo continues to sell despite a lot of drawbacks % +4% % % Nissan Pulsar Visia Nissan Leaf Visia NISSAN PULSAR VISIA VS. NISSAN LEAF VISIA The Nissan Leaf has now got a 25% larger battery pack as an option, which increases both price and range Despite the increased price, the Leaf is still significantly cheaper than the Pulsar in Norway. In Denmark, this translates to a price difference of 4%, which should not be a deal breaker for interested consumers. In both Finland and Sweden, the Leaf is much more expensive, which can also be seen on the low sales volumes. Denmark Norway Sweden Finland +36% +4% +41% Renault Kangoo Renault Kangoo EV RENAULT KANGOO VS. RENAULT KANGOO EV The Kangoo is not capable of fast charging, with 3,7 kw as maximum. Despite having a battery lease business model on the Renault Kangoo EV, the base price is still higher than an ICE Kangoo. Even though there are several drawbacks, the Kangoo EV still manages to be sold in smaller quantities. 0 Denmark Norway Sweden Finland
36 5. PRICE COMPARISONS EVS VS. COMPARABLE CONVENTIONAL CARS Nordic The BMW X5 40e is very price competitive compared to its ICE counterpart. Exciting PHEV-models are coming within the next 6 months % BMW X5 XDRIVE 40D VS. BMW X5 XDRIVE 40E -20% % % BMW X5 xdrive 40d BMW X5 xdrive 40e In both Denmark and Sweden, the PHEV version of the BMW X5 is more expensive, but by a very small margin. In this price range, it will not be a factor that will influence potential sales. In Finland, the PHEV version is 13% cheaper, which might actually persuade some to go for this version. In Norway, there is a 20% price difference in favor of the PHEV, and Insero expects this to create additional demand. Denmark Norway Sweden Finland COMING MODELS: The following EVs and PHEVs are expected to be launched within the next 6 months: Tesla Model X VW Passat GTE Plug-in (PHEV) Audi Q7 Plug-in (PHEV) BMW 3-series Plug-in (PHEV) Volvo S60 Plug-in (PHEV)
37 TABLE OF CONTENTS INSERO QUARTERLY, Q EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NORDIC AND NATIONAL 5 2. NORDIC SALES STATISTICS FROM Q & YEAR-TO-DATE BATTERY CAPACITY CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW NATIONAL INCENTIVES FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES PRICE COMPARISONS BETWEEN ELECTRIC AND CONVENTIONAL VEHICLES SOURCES & CONTACT US 38
38 6. SOURCES & CONTACT US Nordic During the compilation of Insero Quarterly, we have used the various sources listed below. Thanks! For more information, feel free to contact us today. 38 CONTACT US ANDREAS SONDRUP Consultant Phone: SØREN BERNT LINDEGAARD Consultant Phone: SALES STATISTICS: BIL Sweden Oplysningsrådet for Veitrafikken AS TRAFI Liikenteen Turvallisuusvirasto De Danske Bilimportører CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE AND EV INCENTIVES: E.ON Danmark, Clever, CleanCharge NOBIL PowerCircle Chargemap.com HELEN Statens vegvesen Norge Skatteverket Sverige Transportstyrelsen Sverige Energistyrelsen Danmark TRAFI Liikenteen Turvallisuusvirasto PRICE COMPARISONS: Volkswagen Danmark, Volkswagen Norge, Volkswagen Sverige, Volkswagen Suomi Nissan Danmark, Nissan Norge, Nissan Sverige, Nissan Suomi BMW Danmark, BMW Norge, BMW Sverige, BMW Suomi Renault Danmark, Renault Norge, Renault Sverige, Renault Suomi Mitsubishi Danmark, Mitsubishi Norge, Mitsubishi Sverige, Mitsubishi Suomi