A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps

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1 Ltd Registered in Scotland: No SC Registered Office: 15 Great Stuart Street, Edinburgh, EH3 7TS, UK A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps Dr. Lindsay Sugden, RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April 2013 Contact: +44(0)

2 Demand Delta provides: Market expertise Commercial insight Strategy & tactics Energy Efficiency Photovoltaics Small Wind Micro-CHP CHP Generation Energy Services Electricity Storage Smart Demand Heat Pumps Electric Vehicles HEM Networks Clients: Energy companies Manufacturers Finance sector Policy makers Research Services: ASHP Innovation Monitor Home Energy Management Micro-CHP GB Microgeneration A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

3 Agenda Scene setting: Heat pumps in the heating market The hybrid opportunity Customer economics Ease of retrofit Carbon savings Energy system impact Conclusions A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

4 Scene setting: Challenges for heat pumps penetrating the gas grid Electric heat pumps struggle to compete with gas Gas will still play a key role in a lower carbon future Hybrid heat pump / boiler systems can increase penetration of renewables on the gas grid Annual Sales Europe: 8m gas boilers gas boilers Europe: 770k HPs A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

5 Number of appliances (%) Hybrids in a low carbon future The future of UK domestic heat: Delta-ee Balanced Transition Scenario growing role for hybrids 100% 75% 50% Heat networks Electric Hybrids:16% Very strong growth in heat networks and electrification of heating but with gas still playing a significant role in suburban homes. Scenario achieves significant carbon reductions while minimising impacts on the customer and the energy system. Carbon 25% Gas 0% Customer economics Energy system impact Ease of retrofit Key desirable impacts are furthest from the middle Source: Delta-ee Heat Study for Energy Networks Association A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

6 Rapidly growing interest from wide range of players Highlights of current hybrids development activity Who is currently involved in hybrid development in Europe? All the top 5 boiler companies in Europe have a hybrid on the market Growing interest from pure heat pump / air conditioning companies Energy companies are engaging Source: Delta-ee A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

7 Agenda Scene setting: Heat pumps in the heating market The hybrid opportunity Customer economics Ease of retrofit Carbon savings Energy system impact Conclusions A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

8 The hybrid opportunity Carbon Customer economics Energy system impact Ease of retrofit A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

9 Agenda Scene setting: Heat pumps in the heating market The hybrid opportunity Customer economics Ease of retrofit Carbon savings Energy system impact Conclusions A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

10 cost / kwh (Euros) Annual running cost (euros) cost / kwh (Euros) Customer Economics: Running cost RUNNING COST: Space Heating ASHP leads UK Germany France ASHP / space heating GCB / space heating RUNNING COST: Domestic Hot Water Boiler leads UK Germany France ASHP / DHW GCB / DHW ASHP Boiler ANNUAL RUNNING COST: Hybrid ASHP / Boiler 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, ASHP running cost savings with hybrids UK Germany France HP (95% space heating) + Boiler HP (40% space heating) + Boiler Boiler A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

11 Installed cost (Euros) Customer Economics: Upfront cost Comparing upfront cost of boilers, ASHP & hybrids 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 If hybrids are priced in this range, they can compete with boilers 0 24 kw boiler + DHWT 10 kw ASHP hybrid (5 kw ASHP + 16 kw boiler) Avoided cost of heat distribution system upgrade? A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

12 Agenda Scene setting: Heat pumps in the heating market The hybrid opportunity Customer economics Ease of retrofit Carbon savings Energy system impact Conclusions A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

13 Volume (litres) integrated un-integrated Ease of retrofit: Physical fit Size & system design: Hybrids are not one product for one market sector HP HP boiler HP boiler HP boiler HP boiler inside outside boiler unit unit HP inside unit HP outside unit boiler HP outside unit Un-integrated hybrids where ASHP can be retrofitted to existing boiler: Upgrade market? Hydraulic unit un-integrated, floor-mounted, storage tank Compact, integrated hybrids: Replacement market? compact, integrated, wall-hung, combi Floor Space (m2) reference boiler hybrid HPs A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

14 Ease of retrofit: Customer appeal Gas boiler replacements 2.5m / yr 400,000 / yr 400,000 / yr A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

15 Agenda Scene setting: Heat pumps in the heating market The hybrid opportunity Customer economics Ease of retrofit Carbon savings Energy system impact Conclusions A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

16 Mainly rural Mainly rural/ some urban Urban / Suburban Carbon emissions: The scale of the challenge The scale of the challenge: 2015 residential heat emissions Flat - Gas ( ) Flat - Gas (Pre 1944) Semi - Gas ( ) Semi - Gas (Pre 1944) Terraced-Gas ( ) Terraced - Gas (Pre ) Detached - Gas ( ) Detached - Gas (Pre 1944) Flat - Electric ( ) Flat - Electric (Pre 1944) Semi - Electric ( ) Semi - Electric (Pre 1944) Terraced-Electric ( ) Terraced - Electric (Pre ) Detached - Electric ( ) Detached - Electric (Pre 1944) Flat - Other (Pre ) Semi - Other ( ) Semi - Other (Pre 1944) Terraced-Other ( ) Terraced - Other (Pre ) Detached - Other ( ) Detached - Other (Pre 1944) Gas: 22m homes Electric: 2.6m homes Others: 1.3m homes 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 (Thousands of tonnes C02/yr.) Source: Delta-ee Heat Study for Energy Networks Association A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

17 kg CO2 / kwh Emissions (kg CO2 / yr) kg CO2 / kwh Carbon emissions CO 2 EMISSIONS: Space Heating ASHP leads UK Germany France ASHP / space heating GCB / space heating ANNUAL CO 2 EMISSIONS: Hybrid ASHP / Boiler 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 CO 2 EMISSIONS: Domestic Hot Water A closer battle UK Germany France ASHP / DHW GCB / DHW ASHP Boiler 2,000 1,000 0 UK Germany France ASHP HP (95% space heating) + Boiler HP (40% space heating) + Boiler Boiler A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

18 Agenda Scene setting: Heat pumps in the heating market The hybrid opportunity Customer economics Ease of retrofit Carbon savings Energy system impact Conclusions A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

19 Energy system impact: Smart operation of hybrids will increase flexibility & help manage grid congestion 2010 UK heat & electricity hourly demand variability Design point for heat delivery system Smart Control Smart Grid Ready Design point for electricity delivery system Source: Energy Technologies Institute, 2012 Flexibility with 2 energies A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

20 Agenda Scene setting: Heat pumps in the heating market The hybrid opportunity Customer economics Ease of retrofit Carbon savings Energy system impact Conclusions A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

21 Conclusions Customer economics: Lower upfront cost than a HP alone + running cost savings can be achieved Ease of retrofit: A wide range of hybrid system designs fit with a wide range of building types - emerging designs could open up mass market opportunities in replacement & upgrade. Carbon savings: Hybrids can play a role in decarbonising heat especially in the difficult ongas grid sector. Consumer acceptance: Gas is familiar and trusted. Hybrids an easier sell in gas-dominated markets than pure HPs? Energy system impact:: Smart operation of hybrids increases demandside flexibility & helps manage grid congestion = reduced grid infrastructure costs and new business models. A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

22 Scene setting: Challenges for heat pumps penetrating the gas grid Electric heat pumps struggle to compete with gas Gas will still play a key role in a lower carbon future Hybrid heat pump / boiler systems can increase penetration of renewables on the gas grid Annual Sales Europe: 8m gas boilers gas boilers Europe: 770k HPs A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd April

23 Research taken from Delta-ee Heat Pump Innovation Monitor Insight into key technology, policy and customer drivers shaping future HP markets Thank you Contact: +44 (0)

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