Heat Pumps in the Building Sector: Hybrid Heat Pumps opening UK retrofit opportunities?
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1 Ltd Registered in Scotland: No SC Registered Office: 15 Great Stuart Street, Edinburgh, EH3 7TS, UK Heat Pumps in the Building Sector: Hybrid Heat Pumps opening UK retrofit opportunities? Dr. Lindsay Sugden, DECC IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 th November 2012 Contact: +44(0)
2 Demand Delta provides: Market expertise Commercial insight Strategy & tactics Energy Efficiency Photovoltaics Small Wind Micro-CHP CHP Generation Energy Services Electricity Storage Smart Demand Heat Pumps Electric Vehicles HEM Networks Clients: Energy companies Manufacturers Finance sector Policy makers Research Services: ASHP Innovation Monitor Home Energy Management Micro-CHP GB Microgeneration Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
3 Agenda Scene setting: Heat pumps in the building sector Hybrids (ASHP/gas boiler) in a low carbon future What problems do hybrids address? Policy impact Market outlook Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
4 Agenda Scene setting: Heat pumps in the building sector Hybrids (ASHP/gas boiler) in a low carbon future What problems do hybrids address? Policy impact Market outlook Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
5 Scene setting: Challenges for heat pumps penetrating the gas grid Electric heat pumps struggle to compete with gas Gas will still play a key role in a lower carbon future Hybrid heat pump / boiler systems can increase penetration of renewables on the gas grid Annual Sales Europe: 8m gas boilers UK: 1.5m gas boilers gas boilers Europe: 770k HPs UK: 22k HPs Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
6 Agenda Scene setting: Heat pumps in the building sector Hybrids (ASHP/gas boiler) in a low carbon future What problems do hybrids address? Policy impact Market outlook Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
7 Number of appliances (%) Hybrids in a low carbon future The future of UK domestic heat: Delta-ee Balanced Transition Scenario growing role for hybrids 100% 75% 50% Heat networks Electric Hybrids:16% (0.25m/yr) Very strong growth in heat networks and electrification of heating but with gas still playing a significant role in suburban homes. Scenario achieves significant carbon reductions while minimising impacts on the customer and the energy system. Carbon 25% Gas 0% Customer economics Energy system impact Ease of retrofit Key desirable impacts are furthest from the middle Source: Delta-ee Heat Study for Energy Networks Association Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
8 Rapidly growing interest from wide range of players Highlights of current hybrids development activity Who is currently involved in hybrid development in Europe? 4 of the top 5 boiler companies in Europe have a hybrid on the market Growing interest from pure heat pump / air conditioning companies Energy companies are engaging Source: Delta-ee Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
9 Agenda Scene setting: Heat pumps in the building sector Hybrids (ASHP/gas boiler) in a low carbon future What problems do hybrids address? Policy impact Market outlook Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
10 What problems do hybrids address? Carbon Customer economics Energy system impact Ease of retrofit Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
11 What problems do hybrids address? Carbon Customer economics Energy system impact Ease of retrofit Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
12 cost / kwh (Euros) Annual running cost (Euros) cost / kwh (Euros) Customer Economics: Running cost RUNNING COST: Space Heating ASHP leads 0,14 0,12 ANNUAL RUNNING COST: Hybrid ASHP / Boiler ,10 0,08 0,06 0, running cost savings with hybrids 0,02 0,00 UK Germany France 1000 RUNNING COST: Domestic Hot Water Boiler leads 0,14 0, ,10 0,08 0,06 0,04 0,02 0,00 ASHP UK Germany France Boiler 0 UK Germany France ASHP Space Heating & DHW: ASHP 100% HP (95% space heating) + Boiler Space Heating: ASHP 95% / GCB 5%; DHW: GCB 100% HP (60% space heating) + Boiler Space Heating: ASHP 60% / GCB 40%; DHW: GCB 100% Boiler Space Heating & DHW: GCB 100% Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
13 Installed cost (Euros) Customer Economics: Upfront cost Comparing upfront cost of boilers, ASHP & hybrids If hybrids are priced in this range, they can compete with boilers 0 24 kw boiler + DHWT 10 kw ASHP hybrid (5 kw ASHP + 16 kw boiler) Avoided cost of heat distribution system upgrade? Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
14 What problems do hybrids address? Carbon Customer economics Energy system impact Ease of retrofit Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
15 Volume (litres) integrated un-integrated Ease of retrofit: Hybrids - physical fit & customer appeal Size & system design: Hybrids are not one product for one market sector HP HP boiler HP boiler HP boiler HP boiler inside outside boiler unit unit HP inside unit HP outside unit boiler HP outside unit Un-integrated hybrids where ASHP can be retrofitted to existing boiler: Upgrade market? Hydraulic unit un-integrated, floor-mounted, storage tank Compact, integrated hybrids: Replacement market? compact, integrated, wall-hung, combi Gas is familiar to the customer 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 Floor Space (m2) reference boiler hybrid HPs Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
16 What problems do hybrids address? Carbon Customer economics Energy system impact Ease of retrofit Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
17 kg CO2 / kwh kg CO2 / kwh CO 2 emissions CO 2 EMISSIONS: Space Heating ASHP leads 0,30 0,25 0,20 ANNUAL CO 2 EMISSIONS: Hybrid ASHP / Boiler ,15 0,10 0,05 0,00 UK Germany France CO 2 EMISSIONS: Domestic Hot Water A closer battle 0,30 0, ,20 0,15 0,10 0,05 0,00 ASHP UK Germany France Boiler 0 UK Germany France ASHP HP (95% space heating) + Boiler HP (60% space heating) + Boiler Boiler Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
18 What problems do hybrids address? Carbon Customer economics Energy system impact Ease of retrofit Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
19 Energy system impact: Smart operation of hybrids will increase flexibility & help manage grid congestion 2010 UK heat & electricity hourly demand variability Design point for heat delivery system Design point for electricity delivery system Source: Energy Technologies Institute, 2012 Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
20 Agenda Scene setting: Heat pumps in the building sector Hybrids (ASHP/gas boiler) are a possible solution What problems do hybrids address? Policy impact Market outlook Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
21 Mainly rural Mainly rural/ some urban Urban / Suburban Seasonal Performance Factor Policy impact The scale of the challenge: 2015 residential heat emissions On-gas homes - hard to switch from gas: Significant incentives needed Policy needs to allow hybrids potential to be realised Flat - Gas ( ) Flat - Gas (Pre 1944) Semi - Gas ( ) Semi - Gas (Pre 1944) Terraced-Gas ( ) Terraced - Gas (Pre ) Detached - Gas ( ) Detached - Gas (Pre 1944) Flat - Electric ( ) Flat - Electric (Pre 1944) Semi - Electric ( ) Semi - Electric (Pre 1944) Terraced-Electric ( ) Terraced - Electric (Pre ) Detached - Electric ( ) Detached - Electric (Pre 1944) Flat - Other (Pre ) Semi - Other ( ) Semi - Other (Pre 1944) Terraced-Other ( ) Terraced - Other (Pre ) Detached - Other ( ) Detached - Other (Pre 1944) Gas: 22m homes Electric: 2.6m homes Others: 1.3m homes Hybrids: A step beyond gas boilers? Air Source Heat Pump Hybrid ASHP/boiler Condensing Gas Boiler Non-Condensing Gas Boiler (Thousands of tonnes C02/yr.) Source: Delta-ee Heat Study for Energy Networks Association Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
22 Agenda Scene setting: Heat pumps in the building sector Hybrids (ASHP/gas boiler) in a low carbon future What problems do hybrids address? Policy impact Market outlook Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
23 Number of appliances (%) Hybrids in a low carbon future The future of UK domestic heat: Delta-ee Balanced Transition Scenario growing role for hybrids 100% 75% 50% Heat networks Electric Hybrids:16% (0.25m/yr) Very strong growth in heat networks and electrification of heating but with gas still playing a significant role in suburban homes. Achieves significant carbon reductions while minimising impacts on the customer and the energy system. Carbon 25% Gas 0% Customer economics Energy system impact Ease of retrofit Key desirable impacts are furthest from the middle Source: Delta-ee Heat Study for Energy Networks Association Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
24 Scene setting: Challenges for heat pumps penetrating the gas grid Electric heat pumps struggle to compete with gas Gas will still play a key role in a lower carbon future Hybrid heat pump / boiler systems can increase penetration of renewables on the gas grid Annual Sales Europe: 8m gas boilers UK: 1.5m gas boilers gas boilers Europe: 770k HPs UK: 22k HPs Hybrid heat pumps opening retrofit opportunities? IEA Heat Pump Workshop 13 9h November
25 Research taken from Delta-ee ASHP Innovation Monitor Insight into key technology, policy and customer drivers shaping future ASHP markets Thank you Contact: +44 (0)
A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps
Ltd Registered in Scotland: No SC259964 Registered Office: 15 Great Stuart Street, Edinburgh, EH3 7TS, UK A window of opportunity for hybrid heat pumps Dr. Lindsay Sugden, RHC Conference, Dublin 22 nd
2050 Pathways for Domestic Heat Final Report
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