NORTHERN TRUST HIGH YIELD FIXED INCOME QUARTERLY UPDATE. Highlighting attribution, economic and market analysis

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1 NORTHERN TRUST HIGH YIELD FIXED INCOME QUARTERLY UPDATE Highlighting attribution, economic and market analysis December 31, 2015 Northern Trust Asset Management 50 South La Salle Street Chicago, Illinois northerntrust.com Fred Azar Director of Business Management Scott Warner Head of Fixed Income Product Management Eric Williams Portfolio Manager Evan S. Katz, CFA Fixed Income Research Analyst SUMMARY: The high-yield market, as measured by the Barclays 2% Capped High Yield Index posted a negative return in the fourth quarter as declining commodity prices and concerns regarding global growth drove investors toward safety. For all of 2015, the Fund returned 3.02%, while the Barclays 2% Capped High Yield Index return was 4.43%. We believe the high-yield market has recently become more attractive in light of the quarter s sell off. While firms in commodity related industries will continue to experience challenging operating environments, we believe the rest of the market is supported by modest economic growth and relatively stable credit fundamentals. Firms have extended debt maturities, reducing immediate cash needs and their reliance on the capital markets, ultimately decreasing the prospect of near term financial distress. Interest rate volatility, geopolitical events, commodity prices and slow global growth should continue to be the greatest potential sources of market instability in the coming months. In this environment security selection has become even more critical for performance. PHILOSOPHY Northern Trust s Active High Yield Fixed Income Group manages portfolios in an effort to generate returns consistent with the high-yield market. We use a total return approach to generate alpha through fundamental credit analysis, security selection, and sector allocation. We do not employ equities, leverage or derivatives in portfolio construction. Our investment process is designed to preserve capital and limit risk by constructing well diversified investment portfolios that are a reflection of our views on the economy, fiscal and monetary policy, and market valuations. ECONOMIC AND MARKET BACKDROP Global economic growth continued to slow in the fourth quarter. Emerging economies were hardest hit as prices on a broad range of commodities they export continued to decline. Foreign central banks continued to provide accommodative monetary policy in this environment. Over 40 central banks across the globe eased policy in 2015 with many noting a lack of inflationary pressure. Perhaps the most notable moves came from The Peoples Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank for the world s second largest economy. The PBOC reduced interest rates six times during the year and lowered its 2015 gross domestic product estimate to 6.9%, the slowest growth in 25 years. The U.S. economic expansion, now in its seventh year, continued with tracking data showing modest growth and falling unemployment. The Federal Reserve (Fed), finally raised rates in December for the first time since While investors have been very focused on the timing of this first increase, we continue to believe the projected future path of increases is more important for markets. In this regard, the Fed communicated they re likely to maintain a gradual approach. northerntrust.com High Yield Fixed Income Quarterly Update 1 of 7

2 s across high-yield market sectors and rating categories diverged markedly in the fourth quarter, continuing the trend seen throughout this year. The unidirectional risk-on or risk-off correlation of the market since 2009 has broken down. The absence of Fed intervention and depressed commodity prices led investors to reevaluate risk across the entire market. As a result, issuer and sector performance impacted bond returns in 2015 more than at any other period since the credit crisis. From a sector standpoint, energy and basic materials companies underperformed in the quarter and for the full year as concerns surrounding global growth led to further commodity price declines. The fund was positioned conservatively within these sectors and remains cautious when evaluating positions in these sectors. While opportunities are being created amid the volatility, significant risks remain. EXHIBIT 1: 2015 HIGH-YIELD SECTOR RETURNS Energy Basic Materials Utilities Communications Percent -10 Transportation Capital Goods Technology Consumer Cyclical Consumer Non-Cyclical Financials Source: Barclays 2% Capped High Yield Index PERFORMANCE The high-yield market, as measured by the Barclays 2% Capped High Yield Index returned -2.06% in the fourth quarter as declining commodity prices, monetary policy and concerns about global growth caused investors to reevaluate risk assets. During the quarter credit spreads widened, ending at 660 basis points (bps). The Yield-to-Worst (YTW) on the market ended the quarter at 8.74%. Prior to peaking in early December, this YTW represents the highest yield for the market since late By rating, the YTW at the end of the quarter on BB s was 6.14%, B s was 8.61% and CCC s was 16.23%. The spread between BB and CCC rated issuers is now at its widest level in years. For 2015, BB s returned -1%, B s returned -4.63% and CCC s returned %. northerntrust.com High Yield Fixed Income Quarterly Update 2 of 7

3 EXHIBIT 2: OPTION-ADJUSTED SPREADS DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN BB & CCC RATED BONDS Option-Adjusted Spread Percent (%) Dec-2010 Dec-2011 Dec-2012 Dec-2013 Dec-2014 Dec-2015 Source: Barclays 2% Capped High Yield Index as of December 31, 2015 The market volatility this year led the fund to increase its exposure to high quality issuers to a level not seen in several years. The outperformance of the best quality issuers in 2015 benefitted performance, however, looking forward, we believe the recent selloff represents an opportunity. High-yield issuers have benefited from the ongoing slow-growth U.S. economic backdrop. Unlike previous economic cycles, the extended slow-growth environment caused corporations to maintain conservative spending policies. In our view, coupled with an accommodative Fed policy, the slow growth environment contributed to companies having manageable leverage metrics, high interest coverage, and few near-term maturities. While we believe energy and mining companies will continue to experience challenging operating environments, the rest of the market is stable. Accordingly, the default rate on high-yield bonds remains well below-average, ending the fourth quarter at 3.2% according to Moody s, compared with a 15-year average of 5%. The default rate peaked at nearly 15% in November, northerntrust.com High Yield Fixed Income Quarterly Update 3 of 7

4 EXHIBIT 3: HIGH-YIELD DEFAULT RATES VS. YIELDS % 24 High Yield to Worst Moody s Default Rate Percent Source: Barclays, Moody s Over time the fund has generally been positioned in the mid-range of the credit quality spectrum. The highest quality securities carry a material amount of interest rate risk and the lowest rated securities carry credit and general market volatility risk. Although the high-yield market remains relatively attractive and supported by fundamentals, management of credit and interest rate risk is critical for performance. In addition, by keeping ample cash in the portfolio, the fund is able to reduce its reliance on market liquidity in periods of increased volatility. High-yield companies continue to issue debt to fund general corporate purposes and to refinance outstanding issues. Refinancing activity was down compared to last year, replaced by an increase in proceeds tied to merger and acquisition (M&A) activity. Technical factors, such as fund flows, particularly Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) flows, continued to play an outsized role in market volatility. ETFs saw significant outflows in each month of the quarter, putting strain on the larger, more liquid bond structures in the market they own. Retail redemptions and a high-yield fund blocking investor redemptions dominated headlines going into year-end. HIGH-YIELD PHARMACEUTICAL SECTOR The fund has been underweight the high-yield Pharmaceutical (Pharma) sector relative to the Index due to our view of low expected returns relative to the risks of potential M&A announcements. Investors have historically considered pharmaceutical companies to have stable business metrics and associated the sector with lower volatility. In the fourth quarter however, a series of headlines created substantial volatility and caused the sector to underperform the Barclays High Yield Corporate Index. The graph on page 5 shows how high-yield pharma credit spreads have widened relative to the Index since late September amidst pronounced volatility. northerntrust.com High Yield Fixed Income Quarterly Update 4 of 7

5 EXHIBIT 4: OPTION-ADJUSTED SPREADS (OAS) 750 High-Yield Pharmaceuticals High-Yield Corporate Percent Sep-15 Source: Barclays Live Pricing concerns, specialty pharmacies and issuer specific headlines regarding potential fraud at Valeant Pharmaceuticals drove underperformance in pharma bonds in the fourth quarter. Valeant is by far the largest firm in the sector and ranks as the fifth largest high-yield issuer in the Barclay s High Yield Index. High-yield pharma companies are typically much smaller than their investment grade peers and as such have smaller research and development pipelines. Acquiring companies with new drugs to fuel growth is a core part of their business models. The ability to raise prices on acquired drugs has helped to justify many of these acquisitions to investors. Funding these transactions at low interest rates has also supported this business model. In September, the pharma sector sold-off as news stories surfaced regarding Turing Pharmaceuticals 5,000% price increase of an off-patent drug it had recently acquired. The magnitude of this increase raised politicians concerns about the practice of acquiring old off-patent drugs and significantly raising their prices. In October, Congress issued subpoenas to drug companies regarding their drug pricing concerns. As the ability to raise drug prices aggressively became more uncertain, the market s assessment of the value of these businesses declined and volatility increased. In October, at the height of pricing concerns, Concordia Healthcare came to the market with a new debt issue to fund their purchase of Amdipharmn Mercury. Concordia has historically increased pricing on acquired off-patent drugs in the same way as Turing and Valeant. These bonds were priced at a spread of 776 bps, yielding 9.5%, and widened to 798 bps by the end of the quarter. northerntrust.com High Yield Fixed Income Quarterly Update 5 of 7

6 Valeant has been the most aggressive high-yield pharma company by using 100% debt funding for its acquisitions. Adding to spread widening from elevated scrutiny of pricing practices, an October 21 research report suggested there could be fraud related to their ownership of a specialty pharmacy company. The high-yield pharma Index widened 29 basis points relative to the High Yield Corporate Index during the quarter. Valeant s 10-Year bond widened 72 bps over the same period in volatile trading. EXHIBIT 5: OPTION-ADJUSTED SPREADS (OAS) - VALEANT 700 VRXCN, 6.125%, 01/15/ Sep-15 Source: Barclays Live While we expect the pace of High-Yield M&A in the pharma sector to slow, the underlying factor driving transactions hasn t changed. Pharma companies still need to supplement their new product pipelines and there will be opportunities to invest in this sector in the future. We believe high-yield investors will likely demand higher yields, lower leverage, and increased equity in future deals. northerntrust.com High Yield Fixed Income Quarterly Update 6 of 7

7 EXHIBIT 6: PERFORMANCE AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2015 Northern Funds 1-Year 3-Year Avg. Annual 5-Year Avg. Annual 10-Year Avg. Annual Avg. Annual Since Inception Gross Expense Ratio Net Expense Ratio northern trust 2016 Inception Date Northern High Yield Fixed Income 1,2 3.02% 2.16% 4.94% 5.68% 5.59% 0.82% 0.81% 12/31/98 Benchmark: Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield 2% Issuer Capped Index 4.43% 1.70% 5.03% 6.95% 6.51% Performance quoted represents past performance and does not guarantee future results. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate so that shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than that shown here. Performance data current to the most recent month end is available at northernfunds.com. The Advisor has agreed to reimburse certain expenses of the Fund. The contractual reimbursement arrangement is expected to continue until at least July 31, After this date, the contractual arrangements may be terminated if it is determined to be in the best interest of the Fund and its shareholders. In the absence of fee waivers, yield, total return, growth since inception and dividends would have been reduced. Total return is based on net change in NAV assuming reinvestment of distributions. Annualized for periods greater than one year. 1 Bond Risk: Bond funds will tend to experience smaller fluctuations in value than stock funds. However, investors in any bond fund should anticipate fluctuations in price, especially for longer-term issues and in environments of rising interest rates. 2 High-Yield Risk: Although a high-yield fund s yield may be higher than that of fixed-income funds that purchase higher-rated securities, the potentially higher yield is a function of the greater risk that a high-yield fund s share price will decline. Alpha: Measures a fund s risk-adjusted performance and represents the difference between a fund s actual performance and its expected performance, given its level of risk. Basis Points (bps): Unit of measure used in quoting yields, changes in yields or differences between yields. One basis point is equal to 0.01%, or one one-hundredth of a percent of yield and 100 basis points equals 1%. Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield 2% Issuer Capped Index is an unmanaged index that measures the market of U.S. dollardenominated, non-investment-grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bonds. It is a version of the Barclays High Yield Corporate Bond Index except it limits its exposure of each issuer to 2% of the total market value and redistributes any excess market value Index-wide on a pro-rata basis. Beta: Beta represents the systematic risk of a portfolio and measures its sensitivity to a benchmark. Bond Risk: Bond funds will tend to experience smaller fluctuations in value than stock funds. However, investors in any bond fund should anticipate fluctuations in price, especially for longer-term issues and in environments of rising interest rates. ERISA: Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA) enacted rules for U.S. qualified plans to help protect the retirement assets. Option-adjusted spread (OAS) is the difference in yield between two fixed income securities (generally between a fixed income security with credit risk and a comparable treasury bond), adjusted for differences in duration and embedded options. Yield-to-Worst (YTW) is the lowest potential yield that can be received on a bond assuming options available to the issuer are exercised. References to specific securities within the pharmaceutical sector were made in an effort to highlight relevant news in the high yield sector during the period. For a full list of holdings for Northern High Yield Fixed Income Fund, please visits northernfunds.com. Holdings are subject to change and current and future portfolio holdings are subject to risk. Please carefully read the prospectus and summary prospectus and consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of Northern Funds before investing. Call to obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contains this and other information about the funds. Northern Funds are distributed by Northern Funds Distributors, LLC, not affiliated with Northern Trust. northerntrust.com High Yield Fixed Income Quarterly Update 7 of 7 (1/16)