SEB s Swedish Residential Mortgage Lending and Covered Bonds. Stockholm September, 2013

Transcription

1 SEB s Swedish Residential Mortgage Lending and Covered Bonds Stockholm September, 2013

2 Contents SEB s Residential Mortgage Lending p.3 Asset Quality p.19 Cover Pool and Covered Bond Funding p.24 2

3 SEB s Swedish Residential Mortgage Lending

4 Swedish Retail Banking increasingly more important to SEB Increased relative importance of SEB s total income Dec 07 Jun 13 20% 30% Successful client acquisition strategy Major organisational changes in the Retail Division in 2008 strategic move Successful product offerings and focus on long term customer relationships have contributed to increased volumes and profit gearing in the Retail Division Deposits from Private Individuals (SEK bn) Strong development of key ratios CAGR +7% Dec '07 Dec '08 Dec '09 Dec '10 Dec '11 Dec '12 Jun '13 C/I Equity RoE % SEK 9.7bn 14.5% % SEK 10.8bn 21.4% % SEK 14.4bn 22.3% H % SEK 20.2bn 20.0% 4

5 Development of SEB s Swedish Residential Mortgage Lending Increasing mortgage lending - a consequence of strategic focus Development of certain business areas relative importance (credit exposure) 45% Large corporates 40% Swedish SMEs 35% 30% 25% 20% 22% 31% Swedish Residential Mortgage Commercial Real Estate 15% 10% Baltic total credit portfolio excl. banks Public Sector 5% 0% Jun '13 Other 5

6 Development of SEB s Full Service Customers and Mortgage Lending Focus is on full service customers Growth of Mortgage lending is a consequence of the strategy Number of full service customers (thousands) Household mortgage lending growth (SEK bn) Q Q2 6

7 SEB s Swedish Residential Mortgage Lending Household Mortgage Lending dominates the portfolio Split between Household and Residential Apartment Buildings June 2013 Residential Apartment Buildings SEK 102bn ( Multi-family ) Total SEK 475bn Private companies 47% Housing co-operative associations 38% State/municipality owned 15% Households SEK 373bn Single-family homes 64% Tenant owned apartments 31% Second homes 5% 7

8 Swedish Residential Mortgage Market Household Mortgage Lending in public focus On the agenda High level of household debt a threat to the macro-stability? Amortisation behaviour/requirements in focus and proposal expected from SFSA on Oct 15 th Head of Central Bank Are Swedish banks sufficiently capitalised? Household mortgage risk weight floor of 15% implemented Pricing transparency to be improved? Proposal expected from SFSA on Oct 15 th Minister for Financial Markets Pre-payment conditions and fees under scrutiny More consumer friendly regulation proposed 8

9 Price development and Household indebtedness Increase in Swedish house prices driven by lack of supply and higher affordability House prices (index 1992=100) Household debt as % of disposable income Source: Macrobond UK Denmark Spain Germany Netherlands Norway US Sweden Price drivers for Swedish market Reduced subsidies in the beginning of the 1990s caused a decline in residential construction (rental units in particular) - Lack of supply in the larger cities Abolition of residential real estate and wealth tax in mid Low debt servicing costs Interest costs deductible to 30% (20% above SEK 100th) Swedish Household indebtedness not worst in class - but Residential investments are Germany Denmark Spain Finland Norway Netherlands Sweden US Residential investments as % of GDP Denmark Spain UK Norway Sweden US Germany Ireland

10 Swedish Residential Mortgage Market Risk mitigating factors in the Swedish Housing market Highlights Increased affordability among Swedish households Structural lack of housing since the 90s The household savings ratio is high both in absolute terms and compared to international peers Socio-economic factors such as external credit bureau ("UC" Sweden's "FICO"), no buy-to-let market, personal liability, dual income etc. Sweden has robust government finances and a social security system that reduces volatility. The pension system is also well financed 10

11 SEB s Swedish Household Mortgage Lending Successful private customer acquisition strategy Lending development Index =100 at lending balance Dec Market CAGR +12% 180 SEB 160 CAGR +7% Dec '07 Jun '08 Dec '08 Jun '09 Dec '09 Jun '10 Dec '10 Jun '11 Dec '11 Jun '12 Dec '12 Jun '13 Market shares June % 16% (13% in Dec 07) SEB SHB Nordea 24% 27% Swedbank Other 15% Swedish Household Mortgage Lending a consequence of SEB s long-term strategy Mortgage lending a main income driver within Private market creates cross selling opportunities Full service customers in focus crucial for long term profitability 46,000 new full service customers for Swedish Retail between 2010-June 2013 Efficient administration process and increased sales distribution have supported the growth Pricing based on risk Borrower s repayment capacity (PD) Loss given default (LGD) Loan-to-value (LTV) Collateral type Source: Statistics Sweden 11

12 SEB s Swedish Household Mortgage Lending Strongest growth in larger cities with a structural lack of supply Distribution of lending Geographic split of growth SEK 373bn 25% 11% 16% 14% 21% SEK 373bn 17% SEK 273bn 50% 47% Jun '13 Smaller cities Mid-sized cities Greater Göteborg & Malmö Greater Stockholm Dec '10 Greater Stockholm Greater Göteborg & Malmö Mid-sized cities Smaller cities Jun '13 12

13 SEB s Swedish Household Mortgage Lending SEB s borrowers have a strong economic profile SEB s typical mortgage customer Dual income households in larger cities Personal savings above average Stronger credit rating vs. market average New lending concentrated to younger professionals in larger cities Customer age distribution 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Portfolio New loans (Q2 13) SEB s mortgage customers have a relatively stronger credit quality than market average UC score Oct '10 Dec '10 Feb '11 Apr '11 Jun '11 Market Aug '11 Oct '11 Dec '11 Feb '12 Apr '12 Jun '12 SEB Aug '12 Oct '12 Dec '12 Feb '13 NOTE: UC score is defined as the probability of getting a payment remark within one year 13

14 SEB s Swedish Household Mortgage Lending Conservative underwriting criteria support robust asset quality Regulatory requirements 85% regulatory LTV cap Additional internal requirements Strong focus on repayment capacity Customer should afford 7% interest rate and a straight amortisation over a period of 60 years Regardless of LTV all customers are recommended to amortise Mandatory to amortise on new loans above 70% LTV 15% household mortgage risk weight Max loan amount 5x total gross household income irrespective of LTV No more than one payment remark Sell first and buy later 14

15 SEB s Swedish Household Mortgage Lending New policy has led to increased loan amortisations New loans: Amortising loans share of total Highlights All new loans LTV below 70% LTV over 70% 43.1% 58.2% 59.2% 73.2% 71.6% 86.0% New amortisation policy adopted in January 2013 Increase in amortisations both within higher and lower LTV ranges Dec '12 Jun '13 Total portfolio: Amortising loans share of total Portfolio LTV below 70% 51% 54% Majority of total portfolio amortising LTV over 70% 59% 15

16 SEB s Swedish Multi-family Lending Robust growth also in the Multi-family segment Credit exposure (SEK bn) CAGR +16% % (65) Swedish Multi-family part of SEB s long-term SME strategy Target is to become the customer s main bank creates ancillary business New lending focused to larger cities 45 Dec '07 Jun '13 38% (35) Housing co-ops Other Multi-family Weighted average max LTV Housing co-ops 39% Other Multi-family 55% Growth achieved with maintained credit assessment critieria i.e. strictly cash flow based lending Max tenor 10 years LTV <75% but depending on geographic location Pricing based on risk; Borrower s repayment capacity (PD) Internal RoBE requirements LTV Location Level of relationship Size of loan 16

17 SEB s Swedish Multi-family Lending Lending growth in larger cities Distribution of lending Geographic split of growth SEK 102bn 14% 21% 22% 21% 11% -4% SEK 102bn SEK 72bn 72% 43% Jun '13 Smaller cities Mid-sized cities Greater Göteborg & Malmö Greater Stockholm Dec '10 Greater Stockholm Greater Göteborg & Malmö Mid-sized cities Smaller cities Jun '13 17

18 SEB s Swedish Residential Mortgage Lending Summary The successful overall client acquisition strategy also rendered increased mortgage lending The growth is particularly strong in the major cities Conservative risk assessment and underwriting policy support the robust asset quality 18

19 Asset Quality

20 Asset Quality of Swedish Household Mortgage Lending Negligible losses in the portfolio after the 90s crisis Loans past due 60 days do not typically turn into credit losses Net credit loss level Level of past dues over 60 d ays Jun '13 Effectively no net credit losses since the 90s Net credit loss level Jun '13 20

21 Asset Quality of Swedish Household Mortgage Lending Swedish Household Mortgage LTV stable over time Loan-to-value distribution ( bucket method ) Jun 13 Weighted average max LTV by property type Jun 13 LTV Share of portfolio >85% 1% 71-85% 6% 51-70% 17% 0-50% 76% 21

22 Asset Quality of Swedish Multi-family Lending Very low levels of impaired loans and negligible credit losses Loans past due 60 days do not typically turn into credit losses Net credit loss level Level of impaired loans Jun '13 Effectively no net credit losses since the 90s Net credit loss level Jun '13 Additional conservative provisions for legacy 90s portfolio, later reversed 22

23 Stress Testing of SEB s Residential Mortgage Lending Stress testing indicates that losses in an extreme environment would be manageable Highlights In an extreme environment under circumstances with both unemployment rates and interest rates substantially above current levels, in combination with falling market values in-house stress tests show that net credit losses for will be manageable The accumulated net credit loss level over a 3 year period is estimated to some 0.80% which is largely in line with what was experienced during the early 90s crisis 23

24 Cover Pool and Covered Bond Funding

25 Balance sheet Diversified and Liquid Balance Sheet Total SEK 2,596bn June % Other Other Life Insurance Life Insurance Liquid assets 117% of shortterm funding Banking book 1) 80% 60% 40% 20% Credit Institutions Derivatives Client Trading Cash & Deposits in Central Banks Liquidity Portfolio Household Lending Corporate & Public Sector lending Credit Institutions Derivatives Client Trading Funding, remaining Central Bank maturity<1y deposits 2) 2) Central Bank deposits Funding, remaining maturity >1y Household Deposits Corporate & Public Sector Deposits Short-term funding Stable funding 113% of Banking book 0% Assets Equity Liabilities 1. A relatively large share of lending is contractually short which allows for swift re-pricing to adjust for e.g. changed funding costs. 2. Central bank deposits refer to long-term relationship-based deposits from central banks and do not refer to borrowings from central banks 25

26 Funding Base Diversified Funding Base June 2013 Total Funding Base */** SEK 1,792bn Wholesale funding SEK 744bn ** Central Bank deposits Public Sector deposits 3% 5% Financial Institutions deposits 8% Household deposits 12% Mortgage Covered Bonds SEB AB 40% Wholesale Funding 42% Mortgage Covered Bonds SEB AG 4% CP/CD 36% Senior Debt 17% Corporate deposits 28% Subordinated Debt 3% * Excluding repos ** Excluding public covered bonds issued by SEB AG which are in a run-off mode 26

27 Benchmarking the major Swedish banks Swedish Cover Pools SEB more lending to Households than to Multi-family Major Swedish banks Cover Pools June % 24% 24% 33% Multi-family and other eligible assets 85% 76% 76% 67% Households SEB Swedbank Nordea SHB Cover pool size SEK 422bn SEK 722bn SEK 409bn SEK 610bn Overcollateralisation (OC) 56% 46% 42% 16% Cover pool: Weighted average max LTV (property level) 59% 58% 55% 47% Swedish household mortgage portfolio: Weighted average max LTV (property level) 65% 63% n/a 65% Source: Fact books, Investor Relations sites, Interim and Pillar 3 reports 27

28 Cover Pool Only Swedish Residential Mortgages in SEB s Cover Pool Highlights June 2013 Only Swedish Residential Mortgages in the Cover Pool, which historically have had very low credit losses SEB s Cover Pool is more concentrated towards Single family and Tenant owned apartments, which generally have somewhat higher LTVs The Cover Pool is on the parent bank s balance sheet contrary to SEB s major Swedish peers All eligible Swedish residential mortgages are directly booked in the Cover Pool on origination, i.e. no cherry picking of mortgages from balance sheet to Cover Pool Mortgage values are updated on a regular basis Covered Bonds are issued out of the parent bank and investors have full and dual recourse to the parent bank s assets as well as secured exposure to the Cover Pool All legal requirements and matching criteria are met SEB has by far the highest OC of all the Swedish peers 56% Cover pool Q Q Q Total residential mortgage assets (SEK bn) Weighted average LTV (property level) 59% 59% 44%* Number of loans (thousand) Number of borrowers (thousand) Weighted average loan balance (SEK thousand) Substitute assets (SEK thousand) Loans past due 60 days (basis points) Net credit losses (basis points) * LTV for Q calculated on a loan by loan basis 28

29 Cover Pool SEB s mortgage lending is predominantly in the three largest and fastest growing cities with an interest rate reset date within two years Jun 13 Residential Apt Buildings 15% Tenant owned apartments 26% Type of loans Interest rate type Geographical distribution Single family 59% Fixed rate reset =>5y 1% Fixed rate reset 2y<5y 15% Fixed reset <2y 34% Floating (3m) 50% Göteborg region 16% Stockholm region 44% Larger regional cities 32% Malmö region 8% LTV distribution by volume in % of the Cover Pool Prior ranking loans Interest payment frequency 0-10% 10-20% 20-30% 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-75% >75% 0% 3% 7% 10% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% No prior ranking loans <25% of property value >25<50% of property value 1% 6% 93% Monthly Quarterly 17% 83% NOTE: Distribution in different LTV buckets based on exact order of priority for the individual mortgage deeds according to the Association of Swedish Covered Bond Issuers 29

30 Covered Bonds Profile of outstanding Covered Bonds June 2013 SEB Swedish Mortgage Covered Bonds Outstanding covered bonds (SEK bn) Moody s Rating Aaa Total outstanding SEK 271bn FX distribution SEK 74% non-sek 26% Benchmark Benchmark 93% Non Benchmark 7% Increase >30% in 2 years mar-11 apr-11 maj-11 jun-11 jul-11 aug-11 sep-11 okt-11 nov-11 dec-11 jan-12 feb-12 mar-12 apr-12 maj-12 jun-12 jul-12 aug-12 sep-12 okt-12 nov-12 dec-12 jan-13 feb-13 mar-13 jun-13 Currency mix Maturity profile (SEK bn) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 Covered Bond SEK 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 Covered Bond Non-SEK 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 74% 26% 2013Q1 2013Q Non-Benchmark EUR Benchmark SEK Benchmark

31 Long-term Funding Modest re-financing needs the next few years SEK bn Sept 23rd Matured / Maturing Senior Unsecured Matured / Maturing Covered Bonds Issued Senior Unsecured non SEK Issued Senior Unsecured SEK Issued Covered Bonds non SEK Issued Covered Bonds SEK

32 SEB contacts and information Contacts Thomas Bengtson, Head of Debt Investor Relations tel: John Arne Wang, Head of Treasury Management john.wang@seb.se tel: More information Available on You will find it under Investor Relations 32