Recovery in UK property to gain momentum. Recovery in UK property market to gain momentum. Research & Strategy. June Economic growth recovering
|
|
- Clifford Manning
- 8 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Research & Strategy Recovery in UK property to gain momentum June 13 Recovery in UK property market to gain momentum This hasn t been a typical recession and it won t be a typical recovery. Nevertheless a recovery is in sight. Mervyn King, Governor of Bank of England, 1 May 13 A better than expected rise in GDP, the FTSE 1 index within touching distance of all time highs, historic low yields of 1-year government bonds and rising UK real estate investor confidence are a few of the reasons that we believe the recovery in the UK commercial property market is gaining momentum. In this note, we list few key themes that, in our view, are driving the market forward: Economic growth recovering Rents have already found a floor for offices and industrials, with leading indicators suggest improving trends Net lending to return and investor confidence is rising Weight of money is chasing yields and risky assets A real estate upturn is imminent Economic growth recovering According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK economy grew.3% q/q in Q1 13, which was better than the consensus expectation. Moreover, recent statements by the Bank of England s Governor, Sir Mervyn King, and the Chancellor of Exchequer, George Osborne, suggest that the economy is seeing a modest but sustained recovery. If we are to draw conclusions from comparing existing economic cycle with the previous ones, economic growth is expected to accelerate over the coming quarters. This view is also consistent with that of consensus forecasts provided by Consensus Economics. Figure 1: Real UK GDP growth (rolling y/y %) s' recession (Mar-197 to Dec-197) 199s' recession (Sep-19 to Jun-199) s' recession (Jun- onwards) Source: Bloomberg, Consensus Economics, Cordea Savills History and forecasts suggest stronger economic growth No.of quarters With general elections due within two years, economic growth has become a political issue. The Government has announced a series of schemes to boost lending, the housing market and construction. These steps are supporting house prices, with more RICS members suggesting rising than falling house prices in April. Households are also supported by higher levels of income from employment. According to Markit, with inflation subdued, the squeeze on household budgets is easing. This will help to improve consumer spending over the coming quarters. Figure : Households position is improving Pricces declining Pricces rising Feb-9 May-9 Aug-9 Nov-9 Feb-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-1 May-1 Aug-1 Nov-1 Feb-13 May-13 RICS UK house prices net balance (%; LHS) Markit Household Finance Index (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, RICS, Markit 1
2 Looking at granular detail, economic growth in the UK is being driven by the service sector. The sector, which accounts for three-quarters of the UK s GDP, is seeing further improvements, with April recording the fastest increase in activity. Since the start of the year, growth has steadily strengthened, boosted in part by increased volumes of new business. Sales volumes continue to accelerate, which is putting some pressure on capacity. Moreover, in April over % of service providers were forecasting a rise in business activity from present levels in 1 months time. The CBI/PwC financial services survey also shows a further improvement in sentiment, matched by a recovery in business and top-line revenues. In our view, this is positive for office take-up and rental growth Figure 3: Services sector is powering ahead Q1 7 Q 7 Q3 7 Q 7 Q1 Q Q3 Q Q1 9 Q 9 Q3 9 CBI/PwC Financial Services Indicator (LHS) Services sector has continued to expand, with new business volumes rising at the strongest rate Q 9 Q1 1 Q 1 Q3 1 Q 1 Q1 11 Q 11 Q3 11 Q 11 Q1 1 Q 1 Q3 1 Q 1 Q1 13 Source: Confederation of British Industry, PricewaterhouseCoopers 3 Services UK PMI Markit Survey (RHS) Rents are approaching floor The occupier requirement balance from the RICS commercial property survey continues to improve and surveyors think that rents have already found a floor for offices and industrials. As a percentage of balance, a greater number of surveyors are expecting demand for offices and industrials to improve. Demand for retail property is less bearish compared to 1. However, internet and vacancies will continue to act as a headwind for the sector. Figure : Surveyors reporting improving occupier demand (% of balance) Office Industrial Retail Source: RICS, Cushman & Wakefield Furthermore, Cordea Savills prime rent monitor* based on Cushman & Wakefield s data suggests that year-on-year rent changes are stabilising,, with more centres experiencing rental increases than falls in Q1 13. Figure : Prime rent stabilising in key regions for all sectors (y/y change) No. of centres Q Q1 Q Q3 Q Q1 Q Q3 Q Q1 7 Q 7 Q3 7 Q 7 Q1 Q Q3 Q Q1 9 Q 9 Q3 9 Q 9 Q1 1 Q 1 Q3 1 Q 1 Q1 11 Q 11 Q3 11 Q 11 Q1 1 Q 1 Q3 1 Q 1 Q1 13 Rents rising Rents stable Rents falling Source: RICS, Cushman & Wakefield, Cordea Savills * The monitor observes yearly changes in prime rents for all three sectors in eight key cities in the UK.
3 This positive backdrop will support office take-up and is expected to curb recent decline in average office rents outside London and the South East. We believe there is an upside risk to our average rental growth forecast, of 3.% pa over 13-17, if there is a quicker than expected decline in vacancy rates or stronger occupier demand. Figure : Service sector to support office rents Correlation: CBI/PwC Financial Services Indicator (LHS; lead 9m) IPD Central London office rental growth (y/y%; RHS) Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers, IPD, Cordea Savills Retail vacancy rates are high compared to pre-recession levels. However, availability remains constrained in prime pitches and RICS members are reporting less adverse conditions.. In our view, polarisation will continue in this sector, with catchment and asset set selection remaining key. We currently expect average retail rents to increase by 1.% pa over 13-17, 17, with further growth led by Central London shop rents offset by declines in the rest of UK in the shortterm. Figure 7: Gradual improvement in retail sales Correlation: ONS retail sales value (rolling 3m average y/y%; lead m; LHS) IPD All Retail real rental value growth (y/y%; RHS) Source: Bloomberg, IPD, Cordea Savills Further evidence that the UK s stuttering industrial sector is regaining its footing has emerged, with a survey finding that global industrial companies are increasingly favouring the UK as a place to source automotive and high-tech components, and to seek future profits. A poll conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit ranked the UK above betterknown manufacturing powerhouses of Germany and Japan, as well as above emerging economies such as India and Brazil, as a destination for future profit growth. The survey of 33 senior manufacturing executives around the world placed the UK third, behind the US and China, as the country where global companies expect to derive the majority of their profit growth over the coming years. Moreover, a survey by the Confederation of British Industry suggests that employment intentions for the sector are near their highest recorded levels.. With the economy gaining further momentum, we believe there is an upside risk to our rental growth forecast of 1% pa over Figure : Industrial employment intentions are near their highest levels Correlation: CBI Industrial Employment Intentions (lead 1m; LHS) IPD All Industrial real rental growth (y/y%; RHS) Source: Confederation of British Industry, IPD, Cordea Savills
4 Return of net lending and rising investor confidence There are clear indications from various surveys that we are seeing first signs of easing lending conditions. According to the latest Bank of England Credit Conditions survey, both credit availability and credit demand improved in Q1 and are expected to improve further in Q. While improvements in such survey-based indicators have yet to be reflected in the hard data on net property lending, it is evident that pressure on lending is abating. Although traditional lenders, such as banks and building societies are still reducing their exposure to commercial property, lending flows have started to increase from new entrants, such as debt funds, pension funds and life insurance companies. We expect this trend to continue and, as lending from banks stabilises, we expect total net lending to turn positive by the latter half of this year. The improving economic backdrop and availability of credit are supporting real estate investor confidence, which rose further in Q1 according to Jones Lang LaSalle. The confidence index is up 3% y/y and has been on an upward trend since Q 1. Improving sentiment has been reflected in the investment market, with Q1 investment volumes higher than expected, at GBP 9.3 billion, representing a % increase y/y. There is a notable decline in investor expecting investment return to be a lot lower, with the majority of respondents according to the Jones Lang LaSalle survey now expecting improving returns. In our view, this is likely to support investment volumes going forward,, with increasing numbers of investors targeting core-plus and value-add add opportunities. Whilst activity from the UK institutions, increasing their property allocations, is expected to remain strong, the economic growth differential between the Eurozone and the UK will also continue to attract capital from overseas buyers.. However, most of the overseas investors are fixated on London; in Q1, most deals were in Central London, and involved overseas buyers from the Far East and Middle East. Figure 9: Net lending is expected to improve Net new lending (GBP bn; LHS) Source: Bank of England, Capital Economics Contraction in lending to commercial real estate is slowing Figure 1: Both investor confidence and return expectations are improving % of responses 1% 9% % 7% % % % 3% % 1% % Q 1 Q1 11 Q 11 Q3 11 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Property Data, Cordea Savills Q 11 Return expectations: a lot higher (LHS) Return expectations: slightly lower (LHS) Real estate investor confidence survey (RHS) Figure 11: Investment volumes are on an upward trend (GBP billions; rolling quarters) Average Q1 1 Property % of loan books (RHS) Q1 1 Q3 1 Q1 Q3 Q1 3 Q3 3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 7 Q3 7 Q1 Q3 Q1 9 Q3 9 Q1 1 Q3 1 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 1 Q3 1 Q1 13 Q 1 Q3 1 Q 1 Q1 13 Return expectations: slightly higher (LHS) Return expectations: a lot lower (LHS) Volumes are picking up JLL Confidence Index Office Retail unit Retail warehouse Industrial Mixed Average Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Property Data, Cordea Savills Shopping centre Leisure
5 Weight of money chasing yields and risk We expect multi-asset allocators to diversify out of their investments in both equities and sovereign bond. Both of these markets are trading at or close to their peaks and, to a certain extent, look over-stretched. The recent trends also suggest the outlook for corporate profits has improved significantly, with monetary policy expected to remain relaxed for longer. Historically, this has been a sign for a higher risk taking. Figure 1: FTSE 1 close to new highs and 1-year bond yields near record lows,,,,,,,,,, Apr-1 May-1 The trends are driven by positive economic outlook and relaxed monetary policy May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Jul-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Jan-13 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 May Source: Bloomberg FTSE 1 index (LHS) UK 1-year government bond yields (%; RHS) In comparison with 1-year government bond yields, IPD All Property equivalent yields offer significant spread. The spread is very close to the levels seen during the peak of the financial crisis. Figure 13: Spread between IPD All Property equivalent yields and 1-year government bond yields (%) Spread Average Source: IPD, Bloomberg, Cordea Savills Property equity prices remain buoyant and suggest that an upturn in property values is imminent.. The buoyancy in property securities is supported by the better than expected results from the larger real estate investment trusts, especially those that have a higher that industry average exposure to London. Shares in both Land Securities and British Land are now trading at around a 1% premium to their last reported net asset values. Figure 1: Property securities suggesting an imminent upturn in property values Aug- Jan- Jun- Nov- Apr- Sep- Feb-7 Jul-7 Dec-7 May- Oct- Mar-9 Aug-9 Jan-1 Jun-1 Nov-1 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-1 Jul-1 Dec-1 May-13 Oct-13 Source: IPD, Bloomberg, Cordea Savills FTSE EPRA NAREIT UK index (y/y %; lead m; LHS) IPD UK All Property capital growth (y/y%; RHS)
6 The upturn is imminent After declining for 17 months, the IPD Monthly All Property capital growth index recorded a relatively unchanged month in April. While a comparison with the cycle of the late 19s /early 199s suggests that we are very close to a turning point, most of the leading indicators and the economic backdrop suggests that the recovery should gain momentum. Figure 1: Comparison of IPD All Property capital growth cycles No. of months late 19s'/early 199s' (LHS) 7-13 (RHS) Source: IPD, Cordea Savills Cordea Savills prime yields monitor* based on Cushman & Wakefield s data suggests that quarter-on-quarter yield changes are stabilising,, with more markets seeing yields moving in compared to moving out in Q1. Figure 1: Yields moving in (q/q) No. of markets Q1 Q3 Q1 199 Q3 199 Q1 199 Q3 199 Q1 199 Q3 199 Q1 Q3 Q1 199 Q3 199 Q1 Q3 Q1 Green shoots? Q3 Q1 1 Q3 1 Q1 Q3 Q1 3 Q3 3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 7 Q3 7 Q1 Q3 Q1 9 Q3 9 Q1 1 Q3 1 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 1 Q3 1 Q1 13 Yields moving in Yields unchanged Yields moving out Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Cordea Savills Despite our current forecast for positive capital growth in 13 (All property.%, Office 1.%, Industrial.% and Retail -.%), we believe given the backdrop and sentiment, there is an upside risk to our numbers.. The performance is expected to be led by the office sector, notably Central London offices. We expect opportunities to emerge in strong service sector centres outside London, with core yields moving in first. Industrials also remains a favourite given the supporting economic and property trends. Figure 17: Total return forecasts (%) All Office All Retail All Industrial Source: IPD, RealFor, Cordea Savills * The monitor observes quarterly change in prime yields for all three sectors in eight key cities in the UK
7 Cordea Savills LLP 33 Margaret Street London W1G JD Tel: + () Fax: + () info@cordeasavills.com Web: Disclaimer This document has been prepared by Cordea Savills. This document may not be reproduced in any form without the permission of Cordea Savills and to the extent that it is passed on care must be taken to ensure that this is in a form that accurately reflects the information presented here. Whilst Cordea Savills believe that the information is correct at the date of this document, no warranty or representation is given to this effect and no responsibility can be accepted by Cordea Savills to any intermediaries or end users for any action taken on the basis of the information. Cordea Savills LLP is a limited liability partnership, registered in England No. OC33. Registered office: 33 Margaret Street, London W1G JD. A list of the members of Cordea Savills LLP is available from the registered office.
UK COMMERCIAL PROPERTY MONTHLY
UK COMMERCIAL PROPERTY MONTHLY A round-up of the latest economic and commercial property market data Editors: Roger Bootle and Ed Stansfield Retail rental values finally show signs of life The economy
More informationHow To Get Through The Month Of August
London Market Snapshot October 2015 10/15 Global Macro Overview Global equities experienced their sharpest falls since 2011, with most major markets moving into correction territory (a fall of more than
More informationOutlook for European Real Estate in 2013. Mark Charlton, Head of Research & Forecasting
Outlook for European Real Estate in 2013 Mark Charlton, Head of Research & Forecasting Tuesday 20 th November 2012 Europe - uncertainty continues to buffet sentiment Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct 10
More informationEuropean office rental struggle amidst subdued demand
The Jones Lang LaSalle Office Property Clock - Q2 2012 European office rental struggle amidst subdued demand The European rental index records a second successive modest fall (-0.2%) The European vacancy
More informationJuly 2014. UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: July 2014 1
July 2014 UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: July 2014 1 UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: July 2014 2 UK COMMERCIAL & RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKETS REVIEW: JULY 2014
More informationUK Commercial Real Estate Market Outlook
UK Commercial Real Estate Market Outlook April 214 Foreword Paul Coates, Head of Real Estate Welcome to this first of a series of notes exploring the outlook for UK Commercial Real Estate. In this note
More informationUK Real Estate Update
ADVISORY UK Real Estate Update Autumn 2013 kpmg.com/uk/realestate 1 UK Real Estate Spotlight Richard White, UK Head of Real Estate Foreword Can second tier cities fill the void? We have seen a significant
More informationReal estate market outlook Asia Pacific
July 1 Real estate market outlook Asia Pacific Part of the M&G Group Executive summary Economic recovery continues to strengthen across the region, with export-led economies set to benefit the most Office
More informationUK Prime Rents and Yields MarketView
Q 2 Q1 2 Q1 2 Q 2 Q2 2 Q1 2 Q 2 Q 2 Q2 2 Q 2 Q2 211 Q 212 UK Prime Rents and Yields MarketView CBRE Global Research and Consulting RENTS - RISERS 2 YIELDS - FALLERS RENTS - FALLERS YIELDS - RISERS ACCELERATING
More informationIndustry sentiment. Financial Services Survey. www.pwc.co.uk/financialservicessurvey
www.pwc.co.uk/financialservicessurvey CBI/PwC quarterly survey measuring trends and providing insight from the industry Industry sentiment Financial Services Survey Issue number 87 June 2011 The 87th CBI/PwC
More informationPerformance Prospects for Commercial. Property. James Thornton. 08 October 2015. Chief Executive Mayfair Capital
Performance Prospects for Commercial James Thornton Property Chief Executive Mayfair Capital 08 October 2015 Contents 1. Introduction to Mayfair Capital 2. Commercial property performance 3. What will
More informationProperty IQ. Rental growth set to boost returns Q2 2014. Authors. Real Estate. Deloitte Insight
Real Estate Property IQ Rental growth set to boost returns Property IQ is a brief snapshot of some of the most pertinent charts from the UK Property Handbook, our comprehensive quarterly review of UK property
More informationEurozone Economic dashboard
Eurozone Economic dashboard Our Economic Dashboard is designed to help investors understand the true state of the eurozone economy. It is not meant to serve as a direct prediction regarding the future
More informationRESEARCH DUBAI REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT REPORT INVESTMENT SENTIMENT YIELD PERFORMANCE INTERNATIONAL TARGET MARKETS
RESEARCH DUBAI REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT REPORT 21 INVESTMENT SENTIMENT YIELD PERFORMANCE INTERNATIONAL TARGET MARKETS UAE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND DUBAI REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT OVERVIEW Survey data pointed
More informationInvestment Market Overview. Germany I 2 nd quarter of 2014 Published in July 2014
Investment Market Overview Germany I 2 nd quarter of 2014 Published in July 2014 JLL Investment Market Overview July 2014 2 Strong momentum on the German investment market The German investment market
More informationIndustry sentiment. Financial Services Survey. www.pwc.co.uk/financialservicessurvey
www.pwc.co.uk/financialservicessurvey CBI/PwC quarterly survey measuring trends and providing insight from the industry Issue number 90 March 2012 Industry sentiment Financial Services Survey The 90th
More informationCommercial Property Newsletter
Commercial Property Newsletter November 2010 Inside: Irish Commercial Property Commentary UK Commercial Property Commentary - Irish Life UK Property Fund Information European Commercial Property Commentary
More informationUK Economic Forecast Q3 2014
UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to
More informationRICS Global Commercial Property Monitor Q3 2014
Simon Rubinsohn Chief Economist srubinsohn@rics.org +44 (0)207334 3774 RICS ECONOMICS RICS Global Commercial Property Monitor Q3 2014 * RICS Occupier Sentiment Index (OSI) is constructed by taking an unweighted
More informationCommercial Property Newsletter
Commercial Property Newsletter July 2010 Inside: Irish Commercial Property Commentary - Irish Life Property Fund Information UK Commercial Property Commentary - Irish Life UK Property Fund Information
More informationX. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/
1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably
More informationSouth Korea economic comment
October South Korea economic comment Key trends Optimism about the economy is growing, following a stronger-than-expected result in the June quarter national accounts and a raft of monthly data since then
More informationGauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation
August 2014 Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact
More informationUPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT
1 Oct 213 Macro & Strategy Equity Credit Commodities 13 13 #1 Global Strategy #1 Multi Asset Research #3 Global Economics #2 Equity Quant #2 Index Analysis #3 SRI Research 12 sector teams in the Top 1
More informationProperty IQ. After a sterling year, what next? Q4 2014. Authors. Real Estate
Q4 2014 Real Estate Property IQ After a sterling year, what next? 2014 was an outstanding year for UK commercial property. The latest monthly IPD figures show annual total returns have climbed to 20%,
More informationProperty Times Europe Q3 2010 Short supply improves rental outlook
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 Property Times Europe Short supply improves rental outlook 19 October Contents Overview 1 Market Statistics 2 Office Market Overview 3 Outlook
More informationMarkit Global Business Outlook Survey
News Release EMBARGOED UNTIL: :1 (UK), 1 March 14 Markit Global Business Outlook Survey Developed world set to lead strengthening global upturn in 14 Global business optimism hits two-year high Improved
More informationPrivate Banking Global Wrap Up Bank of Ireland Private Banking
Private Banking Global Wrap Up Bank of Ireland Private Banking 2 nd Quarter 2015 Investor Overview Developed Economies improve but markets ease back in Q2 Last quarter we highlighted a number of factors
More informationNAB Online Retail Sales Index In depth report July 2014
NAB Online Retail Sales Index In depth report July Table. Key online retail statistics Total online Index Domestic sales International sales May YOY growth (%) Jun Jul May MOM growth (% sa, 3mma) Jun Jul
More informationPERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT
PENSIONS INVESTMENTS LIFE INSURANCE PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT FOR PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT () PRODUCTS WITH AN ANNUAL FUND MANAGEMENT CHARGE OF 1% - JULY 201 Thank
More informationSchroder Property Multi-let industrial estates: more than just your average manufacturer
Schroder Property Multi-let industrial estates: more than just your average manufacturer July 201 For professional investors and advisers only Introduction Eleanor Jukes, Senior Property Research Analyst
More informationThe Impact of Interest Rates on Real Estate Securities
The Impact of Interest Rates on Real Estate Securities The challenge for real estate securities investors is determining how monetary policy and interest rates affect prices and returns. Highlights Not
More informationProject LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia
Project LINK Meeting New York, - October 1 Country Report: Australia Prepared by Peter Brain: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, and Duncan Ironmonger: Department of Economics, University
More informationDanske Bank May 4th 2016 Economic Update,
Monthly update: 4 May 2016 Danske Bank Chief Economist, Twitter: angela_mcgowan Local job and investment announcements during April 2016: Over the month of April 2016 there were no new job announcements
More informationEmerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
214 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Why rapid debt growth in China might be a risk Is China facing an imminent financial crisis? The rapid expansion of credit in China since
More informationCOMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*
COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) 2 Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
More informationCOMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*
COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) 2 Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
More informationOutlook for Australian Property Markets 2010-2012. Perth
Outlook for Australian Property Markets 2010-2012 Perth Outlook for Australian Property Markets 2010-2012 Perth residential Population growth expected to remain at above average levels through to 2012
More informationMORE UPSIDE FOR THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR
Dec. 23 Jan. 2 ECONOMY AND STRATEGY 51.879.2529 Clément Gignac Strategist and Chief Economist Stéfane Marion Assistant Chief Economist Paul-André Pinsonnault Senior Fixed Income Economist Marc Pinsonneault
More informationBank of Ireland Asset Covered Securities
Bank of Ireland Asset Covered Securities Investor Presentation 24 September 2013 Forward-looking Statement The Governor and Company of the Bank of Ireland is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In
More informationNAB Online Retail Sales Index Indepth report October 2013
NAB Online Retail Sales Index Indepth report October Chart : Growth in online sales vs. retail sales (%, mom) - Apr- Jan- Oct- Jul- Apr- Online Index (sa, MMA) ABS retail sales (ex. takeaway food) (sa,
More informationFirst Home Buyers: The Big Picture
First Home Buyers: The Big Picture April 2014 Key Points: There has been considerable coverage of late regarding the First Home Buyer (FHB) market share, with the widespread perception that this group
More information2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013
2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 U.S. stock market performance in 2012 * +12.59% total return +6.35%
More informationGlobal Investment Trends Survey May 2015. A study into global investment trends and saver intentions in 2015
May 2015 A study into global investment trends and saver intentions in 2015 Global highlights Schroders at a glance Schroders at a glance At Schroders, asset management is our only business and our goals
More informationINFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 4 th February 2016. Opening remarks by the Governor
INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE Thursday 4 th February 2016 Opening remarks by the Governor Good afternoon. At its meeting yesterday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 9-0 to maintain Bank Rate
More informationAT&T Global Network Client for Windows Product Support Matrix January 29, 2015
AT&T Global Network Client for Windows Product Support Matrix January 29, 2015 Product Support Matrix Following is the Product Support Matrix for the AT&T Global Network Client. See the AT&T Global Network
More informationCESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1
CESEE DELEVERAGING AND CREDIT MONITOR 1 November 4, 214 Key Developments in BIS Banks External Positions and Domestic Credit In 214:Q2, BIS reporting banks reduced their external positions to CESEE countries
More informationGlovista Global Perspectives
Issue 65 May/15 Monthly Newsletter for Global Investors Glovista Global Perspectives This issue : S&P Sector Performance P.2 Ccy and Cmdty Performance P.3 Important Interest Rates P.4 Carlos Asilis, Ph.D.
More informationSpotlight Key Themes for UK Real Estate in 2015
Savills World Research Commercial, Residential & Rural Spotlight Key Themes for UK Real Estate in 2015 savills.co.uk/research Spotlight Key Themes for UK Real Estate 2015 THE UK REAL ESTATE MARKET IN 2015
More informationDTZ Foresight UK Fair Value Q2 2011 Widening yield gap raises scores
DTZ Foresight UK Fair Value Q2 Widening yield gap raises scores 23 August Contents Overview 1 Fair Value Index 2 UK market classifications 4 UK versus global forecasts 5 Office market forecasts 6 Retail
More informationHousing Price Forecasts, 2015. Illinois and Chicago MSA
Housing Price Forecasts, 2015 Illinois and Chicago MSA Presented To Illinois Association of Realtors From R E A L Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs
More informationCurrent Issues Note 27 Central London office market through the recession By Yeukai Muchenje and Nick Ennis
Current Issues Note 27 By Yeukai Muchenje and Nick Ennis copyright Greater London Authority November 2010 Published by Greater London Authority City Hall The Queen s Walk London SE1 2AA www.london.gov.uk
More information18 ECB STYLISED FACTS OF MONEY AND CREDIT OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE
Box 1 STYLISED FACTS OF MONEY AND CREDIT OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE Over the past three decades, the growth rates of MFI loans to the private sector and the narrow monetary aggregate M1 have displayed relatively
More informationTHE RETURN OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURE OR CAPEX CYCLE IN MALAYSIA
PUBLIC BANK BERHAD ECONOMICS DIVISION MENARA PUBLIC BANK 146 JALAN AMPANG 50450 KUALA LUMPUR TEL : 03 2176 6000/666 FAX : 03 2163 9929 Public Bank Economic Review is published bi monthly by Economics Division,
More informationMarkit Global Business Outlook Survey
News Release EMBARGOED UNTIL: 00:01 (UK), 14 July 2014 Markit Global Business Outlook Survey Worldwide business confidence wanes Global optimism slips from two-year high Waning confidence centred on eurozone
More informationMarch 2016 CAPITAL VIEWS EMEA RETAIL INVESTMENT TRENDS
March 2016 CAPITAL VIEWS EMEA RETAIL INVESTMENT TRENDS MARCH 2016 CAPITAL VIEWS: RETAIL INVESTMENT TRENDS Buoyant year-end for retail driven by Germany and the Nordics Retail was the fastest growing sector
More informationMarket Commentary Canberra Office
Market Commentary Canberra Office November 2015 Executive Summary A further strengthening in the Canberra office market has been recorded over 3Q15 with a total of 9,300 sqm of positive net absorption.
More informationThinking tactically: What really happens next?
Thinking tactically: What really happens next? Guy Monson March 2015 Since 2008, Central bank asset purchases have successfully protected markets from an array of global risks... A SHARP INCREASE IN CENTRAL
More informationThe global economy and financial markets. Global growth remained moderate in 2012, restrained by the ongoing. The recession in many European economies
Financial year Market environment The eurozone debt crisis dominated financial market developments. High uncertainty and sluggish growth further lowered benchmark government bond yields. The global economy
More informationUK Economic Forecast Q1 2015
UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to
More informationCREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT
CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics July 2 (May 2 data) Highlights First quarter data revisions were modest. The number of credit unions was revised down by and assets and loans were
More informationQ3 2015. Cairo Real Estate Market Overview
Cairo Real Estate Market Overview Cairo Market Summary All sectors of the Cairo real estate market exhibited positive performance and improved sentiment during, with the office market signaling the most
More informationHong Kong. abc. *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations
July 212 Steven Sun* Equity Strategist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2822 4298 stevensun@hsbc.com.hk Roger Xie* Equity Strategist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation
More informationCANADA AND U.S. AUTO SALES: ROOM FOR FUR- THER GROWTH? October 2014. Factors supporting the U.S. sales outlook: Employment Growth
93619 CANADA AND U.S. AUTO SALES: ROOM FOR FUR- THER GROWTH? October 2014 Canadian and U.S. auto sales have strengthened significantly from recession lows. Canadian new motor vehicle sales have surprised
More informationGlobal Real Estate Outlook
Global Real Estate Outlook August 2014 The Hierarchy of Economic Performance, 2014-2015 China Indonesia India Poland South Korea Turkey Australia Mexico United Kingdom Sweden United States Canada South
More informationBond Market Momentum, Valuation and Risks
Bond Market Momentum, Valuation and Risks New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly Commentary August 1 christian@harbourasset.co.nz + 89 Global bond yields stabilised in July, as markets weighed up two opposing
More informationA Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off
A Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly Commentary February 2013 Christian@harbourasset.co.nz +64 4 460 8309 Just like 2011 and 2012, the start of a new year has again prompted
More informationThe World's Best-Selling Stock Market
Economics Q1 2015: Global Commercial Property Monitor Easier credit drives positive real estate sentiment Increasing number of respondents view real estate as expensive But easier credit still expected
More informationSchroders Property and UK Pension Schemes
June 2009 Schroders Property and UK Pension Schemes By Mark Humphreys, Strategic Solutions and Mark Callender, Head of Property Research Introduction Although classified as an alternative asset, property
More informationSpain Economic Outlook. Rafael Doménech EUI-nomics 2015 Debating the Economic Conditions in the Euro Area and Beyond Firenze, 24th of April, 2015
Spain Economic Outlook Rafael Doménech EUI-nomics 2015 Debating the Economic Conditions in the Euro Area and Beyond Firenze, 24th of April, 2015 The outlook one year ago: the risks were to the upside for
More informationQ3 2014. Cairo Real Estate Market Overview
Cairo Real Estate Market Overview Cairo Market Summary The third quarter of 2014 saw further political stability as the regime proceeded with implementing its roadmap. Following the reduction of energy
More informationCENTRAL LONDON MARKET INSIGHT SERIES
CENTRAL LONDON MARKET INSIGHT SERIES Challenge 2025: The Growth Map for Central London 30 April 2014 WELCOME Adam Hetherington Managing Director, Central London AGENDA The Central London Market Kevin McCauley
More informationUBS Global Real Estate Conference. Offices: Bullish Times Ahead?
UBS Global Real Estate Conference Stephen Hester, Chief Executive We are real estate investors and create value by actively managing, financing and developing prime commercial property to provide the environment
More informationEconomic Data. October 30, 2015. October 29, 2015
Economic Data October 29, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% JPY Industrial Production M/M Sep 1.00% -0.60% -1.20% AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q3
More informationTHE ARLA REVIEW & INDEX
THE ARLA REVIEW & INDEX for Residential Investment FOURTH Quarter 2014 Fourth Quarter 2014 Compared with three months ago, the average weighted rental return for houses is up from 5.0% to 5.1%, its second
More informationAgents summary of business conditions
Agents summary of business conditions Q Activity had generally grown solidly on a year earlier, with contacts attributing increased demand to rises in real incomes and credit availability. Growth among
More informationWestpac Banking Corporation
Westpac Banking Corporation Philip Coffey Chief Financial Officer 31 March 2006 Westpac at a glance Established 1817 Top 40 bank globally 1 Core markets - Australia, New Zealand and near Pacific Total
More informationLondon calling: Investing in commercial real estate
London calling: Investing in commercial real estate London s thriving real estate market is offering private equity and sovereign wealth funds new and diverse opportunities Capital attraction for global
More informationInsurance Market Outlook
Munich Re Economic Research May 2014 Premium growth is again slowly gathering momentum After a rather restrained 2013 (according to partly preliminary data), we expect growth in global primary insurance
More informationSmall Business Lending *
Reserve Small Business Bank of Lending Australia Bulletin Small Business Lending * These notes were prepared in response to a request from the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Financial Institutions
More informationResearch paper London property market snapshot JULY 2015
Research paper London property market snapshot JULY 2015 UK economy The average asking price increased by 3pc between May and June as buyers and sellers reacted to the vote. There was a major surprise
More informationRecent trends in the UK first-time buyer mortgage market
Recent trends in the UK first-time buyer mortgage market Dmitry Kuvshinov 1 Summary First-time buyers (FTBs) represent an important component of the mortgage lending market in the UK, accounting for almost
More informationTREASURY MANAGEMENT UPDATE QUARTER 4 2014/15
Committee and Date Cabinet 10 June 2015 12.30 pm Item 9 Public TREASURY MANAGEMENT UPDATE QUARTER 4 2014/15 Responsible Officer James Walton e-mail: james.walton@shropshire.gov.uk Tel: (01743) 255011 1.
More informationEUROPEAN REAL ESTATE INVESTOR INTENTIONS
EMEA CBRE www.cbre.com/research MARCH 2014 EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE INVESTOR INTENTIONS 2014 by Dr Peter Damesick, Chairman, EMEA Research EXECUTIVE SUMMARY There were 387 respondents to the 2014 CBRE online
More informationQUARTERLY MARKETBEAT UNITED KINGDOM MARCH 2014. A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication
QUARTERLY MARKETBEAT UNITED KINGDOM MARCH 2014 MARCH 2014 CONTENTS UK PROPERTY INVESTMENT 3 Prime and secondary yields are under downward pressure as the UK property market builds momentum ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
More informationNetherlands Residential MarketView
Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Netherlands Residential MarketView November 2014 CBRE Global Research and Consulting
More informationEconomy, Capital Markets & Strategy
Sébastien Mc Mahon, CFA Economist Member, Asset Mix Committee Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy 2014 National Business Conference October 2014 1 October 23, 2014 Disclaimer Opinions expressed in this
More informationUK Economic Outlook. July 2015. UK housing market outlook: the continuing rise of Generation Rent
July 2015 UK Economic Outlook UK housing market outlook: the continuing rise of Generation Rent Does trade hold the key to the UK services productivity puzzle? Visit our blog for periodic updates at: pwc.blogs.com/economics_in_business
More informationProperty Data Report
Property Data Report Introduction This document sets out some key facts about commercial property, a sector which makes up a major part of the UK economy in its own right, as well as providing a platform
More informationTHE UK COMMERCIAL PROPERTY ANALYST
THE UK COMMERCIAL PROPERTY ANALYST Q The sweet spot is not over yet GDP will grow by at least % each year to, pushing up rental values and underpinning investors confidence. But yields are falling fast
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation 02 NOVEMBER 201 NAOKO ISHIHARA ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-777-2179 E naoko.ishihara@uk.mufg.jp Overview The Bank of
More informationUS HOUSING MARKET MONTHLY
US HOUSING MARKET MONTHLY th Oct. Editor: Ed Stansfield New build sales finally making some headway Overview: The drop in mortgage rates towards the end of September has given mortgage applications a boost,
More informationInvestment builds across Europe while emerging markets remain downbeat
Economics Q4 2015: Global Commercial Property Monitor Investment builds across Europe while emerging markets remain downbeat Investor confidence rises across several European markets with and now frontrunners
More informationAll Property Forecasts
UK Research & Forecast Report REIF Q3 215 All Property Forecasts Colliers All-Property total return forecast for 215 stands at 14.9%, consisting of capital growth of 9. and income returns of 5.1%. Total
More informationUnaudited Results of Keppel REIT for the Third Quarter and Nine Months Ended 30 September 2013
MEDIA RELEASE Unaudited Results of Keppel REIT for the Third Quarter and Nine Months Ended 30 September 2013 14 October 2013 The Directors of Keppel REIT Management Limited, as manager of Keppel REIT,
More informationFACTORS AFFECTING THE LOAN SUPPLY OF BANKS
FACTORS AFFECTING THE LOAN SUPPLY OF BANKS Funding resources The liabilities of banks operating in Estonia mainly consist of non-financial sector deposits, which totalled almost 11 billion euros as at
More informationGold Recap. Spread JAN6 FEB6 APR6 JUN6 DEC5 1.3 1.3 0.6-0.3 JAN6 - -0.7-1.6 FEB6-0.7-1.6 APR6-0.9. OI Gold. Chg.
Economic Data December 21, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Oct 1.00% 0.80% -0.20% JPY BoJ Monthly Report EUR German PPI M/M Nov -0.20% -0.20% -0.40%
More informationUK MARKETS ANALYST. Roger Bootle (roger.bootle@capitaleconomics.com) Jonathan Loynes (jonathan.loynes@capitaleconomics.com)
UK MARKETS ANALYST 7 th Aug. 1 Editors: Roger Bootle and Jonathan Loynes Markets shift too far towards expecting low rates to last For many years we have argued that UK markets were pricing in too early
More informationSenior Loan Officer Survey 2015 Q4
21 November 215 Banking Sector Analysis Senior Loan Officer Survey 215 Q4 Filip Blazheski Not a lot of change and positive on the whole C&I and CRE loan demand still growing, but lending standards might
More informationCREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT
CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics June 2 (April 2 data) Highlights During April, credit unions picked up 3, new memberships, credit union loan balances grew at an annualized 1.7% pace,
More information