Cargo Flows & Hot Spots

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1 Cargo Flows & Hot Spots Peter Colon Buck Consultants International German-Dutch Logistics Conference March 2015 Buck Consultants International P.O. Box BL Nijmegen The Netherlands P: M: F: E:

2 1 Framework 2 3 Macro level Business level Regional level 4 Buck Consultants International,

3 2 Macro level: global developments History & Short term forecast ( ), (% growth per annum) f China India Global United States Australia United Kingdom Germany Netherlands France Japan Source: OECD, 2015 Buck Consultants International,

4 Long term forecast Actual and projected top 20 economies ranked based on GDP in PPP terms 1) PPP Rank Country 2011 GDP at PPP (2011 US$bn) 1 US 15,094 2 China 11,347 3 India 4,531 4 Japan 4,381 5 Germany 3,221 6 Russia 3,031 7 Brazil 2,305 8 France 2,303 9 UK 2, Italy 1,979 Country 2030 Projected GDP at PPP (2011 US$bn) China 30,634 US 23,376 India 13,716 Japan 5,842 Russia 5,308 Brazil 4,685 Germany 4,118 Mexico 3,662 UK 3,499 France 3,427 Country 2050 Projected GDP at PPP (2011 US$bn) China 53,856 US 37,998 India 34,704 Brazil 8,825 Japan 8,065 Russia 8,013 Mexico 7,409 Indonesia 6,346 Germany 5,822 France 5,714 1) Purchasing Power Parity (excludes impacts of currency exchange rates) Source: Worldbank/ PwC Buck Consultants International,

5 Global Scope Companies have more and more a global scope for all types of operations Operation Regions within US / Countries in Europe & Asia Regions of the World / Continents Global Production Distribution R&D Back offices Marketing & Sales Source: Buck Consultants International Buck Consultants International,

6 3 Business level: supply chain developments Buck Consultants International,

7 More flexible and tailored supply chains The dynamics that impact the supply chain are numerous Rapidly and unpredictably changing markets A shift from mass markets to fragmented niche markets Fast growth of e-commerce/ e-fulfilment Ever shortening product life cycles Growing pressure on financial impact of supply chain performance Continuous pressure to squeeze waste (both time and cost) out of the supply process Supply chain management becomes core business Buck Consultants International,

8 Why focus on strategic network design? Strategic Tactical Operational 80% 20% The majority of the value chains lifecycle costs are locked-in at the start Distribution network Inventory locations Assembly network In-house vs. contract manufacturers Logistics suppliers Decisions Source: AMR Value Buck Consultants International,

9 It is not only about costs! Service objectives & constraints have to be taken into account as well Service objectives Leadtime requirements Network scenario s Operations costs Transport costs Cost objectives Order fill requirements Network optimization Inventory costs Capacity flexibility Information availability Tax and duties Fixed vs. variable Existing facilities Existing partners Existing sources Laws & regulations Design constraints Buck Consultants International,

10 Example: BCI Client in FMCG industry FROM TO RESULTS Overall SC cost from 132M to 117M (- 12%) 7M saving in transport spend FROM TO Locations Transport consolidation Not in place 2M saving Purchasing Decentral Centralized Inventory High > 20% reduction On Time In Full <70% >95% OTIF from below 70% to >95% Buck Consultants International,

11 Main supply chain configurations EDC-structure Centralized control and execution (the 90 s) = DC = production Primary production Secondary production Distribution Inventory Planning Customer service Shared services Characteristics In or near market region Mainly integrated in primary production function, trend towards integration in DC Centralized in single Euro DC or local market DC s European inventory Centralized De-centralized De-centralized but with plans to centralize Buck Consultants International,

12 Main supply chain configurations From centralized control and execution (the 90 s) EDC-structure To decentralized control and execution BDC-structure RDC-structure Buck Consultants International,

13 1-tier Today: Decentralized NETWORKS with central control towards product-market specific, hybrid supply chains Characteristics Primary production Off-shore or Near-shore 2-tier Secondary production Distribution Inventory Planning Customer service Shared services In market/low cost region Regional DC s Direct sourced Satellite structure / X-dock European inventory Centralized Regionalized Centralized / regionalized Buck Consultants International,

14 Network Re-Design in Healthcare Industries Centralized Central + Sats Regionalized Fully centralized High value / low volume products Often parcel type of distribution Main inventory in central warehouse Local sats replenished by EDC Sometimes combined with postponement Strategic stocks in country DCs Medium - High value products Regional DCs (4-6) supplying a fixed region Logical clusters of countries Big Pharma portfolios Hub spoke per region Regional DCs (4-6) supplying a fixed region Logical clusters of countries Differentiated portfolios Buck Consultants International,

15 4 Regional level: hot spot Regional hot spots: supply chain driven Overview of logistics hot spots in Rhine corridor (no order in numbering) 1 Rotterdam 2 Moerdijk-Tilburg 3 Venlo-Venray 4 Nijmegen-Arnhem- Emmerich 5 Duisburg-Düsseldorf 6 Mannheim-Ludwigshafen 7 Strassbourg 8 Rheinport Basel 8 Buck Consultants International,

16 How do companies select a DC location? Cost factors + Quality factors Such as: Labor costs Transportation costs Occupancy costs Incentives Taxes etc Such as: Labor availability Labor flexibility Business climate Infrastructure Utilities etc Buck Consultants International,

17 Listing of cost factors for a DC Location categories Relative weight Location factors Relative weight 1 Cost of labor 1.1 Job title A 1.2 Job title B 1.3 Job title C 2 Transport costs 2.1 Inbound transport costs: from airport to DC 2.2 Outbound transport costs: from airport to DC 3 Warehouse costs 3.1 Rental costs DC (+ service charges) 3.2 Land costs 3.3 Building costs 3.4 Costs for utilities infrastructure 3.5 Real estate taxes 4 Investment incentives and grants Total 4.1 Capital grants 4.2 Employment incentives 4.3 Training grants 4.4 Other incentives Costs will be calculated in Euro and forecasted for the next 3 years Quality factors (next slide) are assumed: 1= poor ; 5= excellent Buck Consultants International,

18 Listing of quality factors for a DC Location categories Relative weight Location factors Relative weight A Infrastructure & accessibility B Labor characteristics C Customs D Language skills E Labor regulations F Facility & sites G Business climate 100% A1 Availability of 3PL s A2 Distance to international highway networks A3 Distance to international airport A4 Distance to international cargo hub A5 Distance to customers B1 Availability of logistics personnel B2 Productivity and loyalty B3 Unemployment B4 Multilingual skills C1 Time to obtain licenses-rulings C2 Flexibility and business orientation customs D1 English language speaking skills D2 Other language speaking skills E1 Working schedule flexibility E2 Hiring & Firing regulations E3 Turnover of labor E4 Works Council involvement F1 Availability pre built facilities F2 Availability of suitable land plots F3 Building permits / timing G1 Corporate tax rate G2 Ease of doing business G3 Political, financial and economical risk G4 Quality and reliability of telecommunications Buck Consultants International,

19 Cost-Quality matrix Example: Project specific site selection results for a distribution center in perspective: cost-quality assessment Total costs in million Euro for first 3 years (all operating costs -/- investment incentives) Location E Location D Location B 100 Location F Location G Location H Location I 110 Location J Location C Location A Weighted quality scores Buck Consultants International,

20 Crucial questions for DC locations/regions Q1 : Q2 : Q3 : What is the competitive position of your DC/ location/ region? For what type of DCs in what industries is your DC/region a good fit? For what kind of e-fulfilment centers does your region qualify? Buck Consultants International,

21 Cost-Quality matrix Q1: What is the position of your DC location/ region? Example: Project specific site selection results for a distribution center in perspective: cost-quality assessment Total costs in million Euro for first 3 years (all operating costs -/- investment incentives) Location E Location D Location B 100 Location F Location G Location H Location I 110 Location J Location C Location A Weighted quality scores Buck Consultants International,

22 Q2: For what types of DCs, in what industries is your DC/region a good fit? Different solutions exist for different businesses European Distribution Center (EDC) Single tier Typical examples Spare parts Computers Microchip Two tier Typical examples Critical spare parts Motorcycles Specialty chemicals Euro-Regional Distribution Center (RDC) Typical examples Fresh food (cool chain) Pharmaceu- ticals Typical examples FMCG Cosmetics Food Clothing Buck Consultants International,

23 Q3: For what kind of e-fulfilment centers does your region qualify? Combination Centers Dedicated Centers Hybrid Model Buck Consultants International,

24 Top locations for e-fc Recent research UK, Netherlands, Belgium, France and Germany Main factors in this study: Market proximity Logistics infrastructure Operational costs (RE and labour) Top 10 locations for e-fc 1 DE Rheinland-Pfalz DE Saarland BE Wallonia NL South-Netherlands NL West-Netherlands BE Flanders UK East of England LU Luxembourg BE Brussels FR East France DE NRW 6.75 Source: VIL 2014 Labour availability Investment climate E-fulfilment competencies Buck Consultants International,

25 5 Conclusions On a global level the European/ German economies will play a smaller role On a business level, the supply chain has become a priority in the board room In a supply chain network the costs for production plants and distribution centers are more crucial than transportation costs Supply chain configurations depend on product, customer and transportation characteristics Buck Consultants International,

26 For positioning a DC location/region three crucial questions have to be answered What is the competitive position of your DC location/ region? For what type of DCs in what industries is your DC/region a good fit? For what kind of e-fulfilment centers does your region qualify? Buck Consultants International,

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