Post 2010: West Even More Important to Democrats

Transcription

1 Post 2010: West Even More Important to Democrats Ten years ago, Karl Rove and George W. Bush put together a blueprint for a winning path for the Republican Party for years to come. Their plan was to reach out to compassionate conservatives, Hispanics, and Independents and bring them in under their big tent. But, the conservative, dominant wing of the Republican Party alienated many of these voters in the West over the past decade as evidenced by looking at the electoral gains Democrats have made in the Intermountain West. In 2000, Democrats controlled zero Governorships, 3 Senate seats and 6 Congressional seats. After the 2008 election, Democrats held 5 Governor s seats, 7 Senate seats, and 17 House seats. And, President Obama had won by large margins in Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico after John Kerry failed to take a single state out of eight in the New West four years earlier. This year, we won t see the gains that Democrats have made in the past two cycles, but what s interesting is that our long term goals are still very much on track. Not that long ago, it would have been almost unthinkable that the West would be the frontline for crucial races up and down the ticket that both parties are battling over today. That the West is now a battleground is a demonstration of the influential role this region plays and will continue to play in American politics. To fully understand the electoral changes that have taken place in the West, it is critical to understand the western mindset and our issue priorities, the changing demographics of the region, the electoral impact of early vote and ballot measures, and the rising influence of Independent voters. One election cycle does not make a trend. In other words, while the 2010 election is very volatile and it is next to impossible to predict outcomes in a host of races throughout the region, it is crucial to understand long-term trends and opportunities for this region. Party registration shifts, Hispanic turnout compared to previous off-year elections, early voting patterns, ballot measure results, and the ticket splitting that is a western tradition will determine how the West is really won. 1

2 About Project New West Since Project New West s inception in 2007, PNW has emerged as the leading authority on the values, issues, and demographics that define America s Intermountain West. PNW was founded on the belief that the West offers Democrats and progressives the best opportunity for growth in the nation. PNW s mission is to provide subscribers and clients with a roadmap to understand the political, demographic, and issue landscape of the West. Our subscribers receive a comprehensive set of tools and strategies which include quantitative and qualitative research, issue analysis, demographic research, and other strategic services to most effectively communicate to those who live and play in the West. Snapshot: A Window into Western Trends Project New West is conducting extensive research and analysis to help decipher the results of November s election. Outlined below are some factors that we believe are critical to look at as news organizations and analysts begin to understand the 2010 election as it relates to the West. 1. Westerners Expectations of Government and Their Leaders (Page 4): Poll after poll shows that western voters want a government that is accountable and transparent, focused on providing nuts and bolts infrastructure and services like transportation and a quality education. They don t want to drown their government in a bathtub. 2. Independent Voters Remain Key to the West (Page 4): Unaffiliated voters in the West remain resolutely independent from both political parties, although they have been crucial to Democrats winning in the West over the past decade. In a recent poll, 69% of these Unaffiliated voters said that Democrats in Congress were doing only a fair or poor job. Similarly, 68% said Republicans in Congress were doing only a fair or poor job. 3. The Influence of Hispanic Voters in the West Will Continue to Grow (Page 5): Although Latino voters in the West have favored Democrats in the past, it is critical to remember that Latino voters are not a monolithic voting bloc in terms of language preferences, ideology, or issue priorities. Without consistent messaging and outreach from campaigns, Hispanic voter participation is more affected by the decreased turnout in off-year elections. 2

3 4. Long Term Trends Favor Democrats (Page 6): a. College Educated Voters are Moving Suburban Swing Counties (Page 6) b. Hispanic Voters are Growing in Power Across the Country (Appendix A) c. Party Registration Numbers are Shifting away from Republicans (Appendix D) 5. Education is a Compelling Electoral Issue (Page 7): Voters fundamentally believe that the way to make America strong economically is by ensuring our children are equipped with the skills necessary to be competitive in the global economy. In Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, and New Mexico, PNW polling shows voters favor approaches to balancing state budget deficits that avoid cuts to education spending. 6. Social Issues Continue to Divide Republicans and Turn off Independents (Page 8): Conservatives have sought to use issues such as abortion as a wedge, and it seems to be backfiring. The extreme position some candidates have taken on the abortion issue outlawing it even in cases of rape, incest and to protect the health of the woman puts these candidates and their supporters far out of the mainstream of westerners. 7. Voters Strongly Support the New Energy Economy (Page 9): PNW polling shows that voters across the West say that investments in solar & wind energy are a better choice than drilling for oil & natural gas on several key dimensions like in America s best interest, reducing dependence on foreign oil, and creating jobs in your state. 8. Immigration is Not a Top Issue for Hispanic or Anglo Voters (Page 10): Despite the GOP s attempts to use immigration as a wedge issue, voters top priorities are jobs, the economy, and education. However, a clear majority of western voters want to see the federal government address the issue of immigration. Even in Arizona, where a majority of surveyed voters supported Arizona s new controversial state immigration law (SB1070), even more voters supported comprehensive federal immigration reform. Appendix Page A. The West is the Fastest Growing Region Driven By Metro-Areas 11 B. Hispanic Population Growth In the West & Beyond 12 C. Electoral Trends Show Movement Toward Democrats 13 D. Voter Registration Trends Show Movement Away from Republicans 15 3

4 Westerners Expectations of Government and Their Leaders Voters move to this region and stay here because of the unique quality of life they believe the West offers. Our research repeatedly has shown that this is something that westerners take great pride in and want to protect. The attraction to the West has made this the fastest growing region in the nation over the past decade. Because of this rapid population growth, there has been a great need for infrastructure to meet the demands of the West s new and growing communities (see Appendix A, Page 11). Growing suburban and ex-urban populations expect their state and local government to make investments in schools, roads, clean water, sewage systems, and front-line public safety employees. Voters understand the important role state governments play in providing these services to protect the unique quality of life the West offers. Poll after poll shows that while western voters don t want to drown their government in a bathtub, they want a government that is accountable and transparent, focused on providing nuts and bolts infrastructure and services like transportation and quality education. In Arizona, voters approved a three-year sales tax increase by a vote of 64 to 36% in May The measure, which divided the Republican Party, was supported by a diverse coalition including the Republican Governor, business interests, and labor unions. 65% of likely Colorado voters say that they are very or somewhat satisfied with the quality of services provided by government in Colorado. Only 10% of likely voters in 2 Colorado said they were not satisfied at all. In Colorado, three conservative anti-government measures on the 2010 ballot (Amendments 60, 61, and Proposition 101) have been opposed by a large left-right coalition including the Chamber of Commerce and labor unions. All three measures are trailing badly in recent polls. 3 Independent Voters Remain Key to the West Many western voters pride themselves as being more independent from political parties than voters in other regions of the country. In states such as Arizona and Colorado, a full third of the electorate are not registered with a political party but are registered as Unaffiliated or Independent. Since 2000, the swing states of Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada have all seen a significant increase in the percentage of registered Independent voters and a decrease in the percent of registered Republicans. In New Mexico, the numbers are constant, with a Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in Colorado; 600 Likely Voters Statewide; Mar 17-22,

5 large Democratic registration edge (see Appendix D, pages for voter registration trends). In 2004, 2006, and 2008, these voters often made the critical difference in close elections up and down the ballot throughout the West. The elections of then-governor Janet Napolitano (AZ-2002), then-senator Ken Salazar (CO-2004), Governor Brian Schweitzer (MT-2004), Senator John Tester (MT-2006), Congressman Walt Minnick (ID1-2008), Senator Mark Udall (CO-2008), and Senator Tom Udall (NM-2008) are examples of successful Democrats that captured Independent voters. Independent voters chose pragmatic, non-ideological candidates who address the issues most directly related to quality of life: jobs, schools, conservation, and infrastructure like roads, water, and essential public safety services. To win Independent voters, the most successful candidates are seen as being above partisan politics and able to work together to accomplish their goals. In this election, Independent voters are very much up for grabs. In a recent qualitative and quantitative research project conducted by PNW of these registered Unaffiliated voters in Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada, we found that they remain resolutely independent from party labels and are feeling extremely sour towards both political parties. 69% of these Unaffiliated voters said that Democrats in Congress were doing only a fair or poor job. Similarly, 68% said Republicans in Congress were doing only a fair or poor job. 4 However, these Independent voters gave Democrats in Congress an edge on being the party that focused on creating new jobs and stands with regular people. 5 Many Independent voters tend to be younger (18-49) and are not affiliated with a political party because they are newer to the process. The Influence of Hispanic Voters in the West Will Continue to Grow Hispanics are the fastest growing demographic group in the country and their long-term influence in American politics will continue to grow over the next decade. As with all other demographic groups in the West, we expect their overall turnout to be lower than during the 2008 Presidential election. However, it is important to note that the population is young and their percentage of the voting population will continue to expand. Although Latino voters in the West have favored Democrats in the past, it is critical to remember that Latino voters are not a monolithic voting bloc in terms of language preferences, ideology, or issue priorities. Education continues to be a key motivator for this community as it connects a host of values that they rank highly: living the American dream, opportunity, and family. 4 Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in AZ, CO, NV; 900 Unaffiliated Voters; June 24-30, Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in AZ, CO, NV; 900 Unaffiliated Voters; June 24-30,

6 In Nevada, 50% of Hispanic voters reported jobs and the economy as the most important issue in determining who to vote for. 6 In Texas, 95% of Hispanic voters thought creating jobs and improving the economy was an important factor in deciding to vote in this year s election. 96% of TX Hispanic voters felt that ensuring children receive the education they need in order to succeed in the future was important in determining to vote. 7 In a large-scale study of Hispanic voters in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, PNW found that: o 92% say that they are proud to be an American; o 84% say that they take care of elders in their families; o 59% display the American flag on their home, car, or workplace. 8 Long Term Trends Favor Democrats A report from the Western Rural Development Center at Utah State University (see Appendix A, Page 11) shows that the rapid population growth in the West is driven by people in metropolitan areas. In key suburban swing counties, two demographic groups are fueling Democratic success: college educated voters and Hispanics. These key suburban counties that flipped from Bush to Obama in 2008 have both Kerry 2008 Obama Net Shift Arapahoe County, CO 47.5% 55.3% +7.8 Larimer County, CO 46.6% 54.1% +7.5 Jefferson County, CO 46.6% 53.6% +7 Valencia County, NM 55.6% 43.3% +9.7 Sandoval, NM 48.1% 55.6% +7.5 Washoe, NV 47.0% 55.2% +8.2 In addition, these key suburban/urban counties all showed movement toward Obama: 2004 Kerry 2008 Obama Net Shift Maricopa County, AZ 42.3% 44% +1.7 Ada County, ID 37.7% 45.9% +8.2 Clark County, NV 51.7% 58.4% +6.7 Salt Lake County, UT 37.5% 48.7% Although these areas may swing in 2010, the long-term future is favorable for Democrats. 6 Chambers Lopez & Gaitán, LLC, Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in Nevada; 600 Hispanic Likely Voters Statewide; Aug 14-19, Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in Texas; 500 Hispanic Likely Voters in Harris, Hidalgo, and Cameron Counties; Aug 24-31, PNW 2008 Hispanic Voter Research Project; 2000 Likely Voter Interviews 6

7 Education is a Compelling Electoral Issue Despite the recession, we have seen poll after poll show strong opposition to education budget cuts, especially those that result in job losses for educators and increased class sizes. Voters fundamentally believe that the way to make America strong economically is by ensuring our children are equipped with the skills necessary to be competitive in the global economy. In the West, candidates are using education in their paid communications efforts as a defining electoral issue. In Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, and New Mexico, PNW polling shows voters favor approaches to balancing state budgets that avoid cuts to education spending. o In Colorado, only 25% of likely voters favored cuts to state government spending if that meant cutting K-12 education. Only 16% of Colorado Hispanic voters favored the cuts. 9 o In New Mexico, only 19% of likely voters favored cuts to state spending including education. Only 17% of New Mexico Hispanic voters favored the cuts. 10 o In Nevada, 82% of likely voters oppose a proposal to cut $300 million from K-12 education % of Hispanic voters in Nevada believe that state funding for public should be increased. 12 o Even in deeply conservative Idaho, 81% of likely voters opposed a plan to cut nearly $130 million from K-12 education. 13 In the campaign battles, candidates like Sharron Angle (NV) and Ken Buck (CO) have avoided repeating their primary-season calls to eliminate the U.S. Department of Education. In both states, their opponents have attacked them directly for this position. 14 Education cuts are especially toxic among the crucial and growing bloc of Hispanic voters. In Nevada, PNW polling among likely Hispanic voters shows 80% opposed to Angle s position on education funding and eliminating the U.S. Department of Education Myers Research & Grove Insight Poll in Colorado; 600 Likely Voters Statewide; Mar 17-22, Grove Insight Poll in New Mexico; 600 Likely Voters Statewide; Jan Grove Insight Poll in Nevada; 500 Likely Voters Statewide; Jan 24-30, Chambers Lopez & Gaitán, LLC, Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in Nevada; 600 Hispanic Likely Voters Statewide; Aug 14-19, Grove Insight Poll in Idaho; 500 Likely Voters Statewide, Mar 10-14, Harry Reid Campaign, Department of Education video: Michael Bennet Campaign, Department of Education video: 15 Chambers Lopez & Gaitán, LLC, Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in Nevada; 600 Hispanic Interviews Statewide; Aug 14-19,

8 Education issues are extremely important to younger voters, both year olds and voters under 50 with children. Ken Buck s comment about eliminating federal college student loans has been used as a line of attack on television advertisements by the Bennet campaign and DSCC. 16 Social Issues Continue to Divide Republicans, and Turn off Independents Conservatives may have overplayed their hand when it comes to social issues. They have sought to use issues such as abortion as a wedge, and it seems to be backfiring. The extreme position some candidates have taken on the abortion issue outlawing it even in cases of rape, incest, and to protect the health of the woman puts these candidates and their supporters far out of the mainstream of westerners. It also flies in the face of the anti-government rhetoric of the Tea Party. 83% of likely Colorado voters, including 78% of Hispanic voters, do not believe abortion should be outlawed. Only 13% of Colorado voters say that abortion should not be legal. 17 In Colorado, a measure has been placed on the 2010 ballot that would not only outlaw abortion, but would also ban many forms of birth control and some fertilization treatments. A similar amendment was defeated in 2008 by over 70% of Colorado voters. A recent Denver Post/Survey USA poll showed only 15% of voters supporting this measure, Amendment Every major Colorado Republican candidate has taken the extreme position on access to abortion services and endorsed the personhood amendment, in order to court support during the GOP primary. 19 Ken Buck s extreme position in support of the personhood amendment and against abortion, even in cases of rape and incest, has been used by both the Bennet campaign and DSCC against him in paid communications Michael Bennet Campaign, Student Loans video: DSCC Plan Video: 17 Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in Colorado; 600 Statewide Interviews with an oversample of 200 additional Hispanic voters; Sep 8-15, Amendment 62 Supporters: Ken Buck (Senate): Dan Maes (Governor): [Accessed Oct 12, 2010] Cory Gardner (CD4): video located at 20 DSCC, Reproductive Health video: Michael Bennet Campaign, Reproductive Health video: 8

9 PNW polling shows that this amendment increases interest in voting among key Democratic constituencies like single women, 2008 surge voters, and Hispanic voters. 21 In a recent poll in Arizona s 5 th Congressional District, GOP Candidate David Schweikert s position on abortion was troubling to 66% of likely voters in the district. 22 Voters Strongly Support the New Energy Economy The West has been on the front-line of both the emerging new energy economy and the debate over where to drill for oil and natural gas. Not only is the West rich in alternative energy resources but westerners understand how critical it is to become independent from foreign oil and to create jobs that can t be easily outsourced overseas. PNW polling shows that voters across the West say that investments in solar & wind energy are a better choice than drilling for oil & natural gas on several key dimensions like in America s best interest, reducing dependence on foreign oil, and creating jobs in your state. 23 Especially after the BP Gulf-oil spill, PNW data confirms that candidates lose support if they take money from oil companies. 79% of likely Colorado voters said they would be less likely to vote for candidate who took tens of thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from big oil companies. 77% said that they would be less likely to vote for someone who supported tax breaks for big oil companies. 24 Immigration is Not a Top Issue for Hispanic or Anglo Voters While conservatives are trying to use immigration as a wedge issue, western voters of all ethnic backgrounds and ideologies continue to rank jobs, the economy, and education as their top priorities. That said, PNW has found that western voters want Washington to take action and address immigration reform and border security. Nowhere is the evidence for this stronger than in Arizona. While a majority of voters supported Arizona s controversial new state immigration law (SB1070), even more voters supported a comprehensive federal immigration solution. Voters supported SB1070, not because of the specifics of the law passed, but because they want to see federal government action on this issue. 21 Myers Research Poll in Colorado; 850 Registered Voters; Dec 1-19, Harstad Research Poll in AZ5; 500 Likely Voters; Sep 13-16, Harstad Research & Westen Strategies Poll in CO, NV, MT; 900 Likely Voters 300 in each state; Oct 8-13, Benenson Strategy Group Poll in Colorado; 600 Likely Voters Statewide; July 21-24,

10 Just after the passage of SB1070, PNW polling in Arizona showed that 73% of likely voters supported comprehensive immigration reform including 76% of those that were identified as Republicans, 74% of Anglo voters, and 73% of Hispanic voters. Only 60% of all voters in the poll supported Arizona s SB PNW polling among Hispanic voters in Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, and Texas shows that jobs and education top their concerns, above immigration. There is great intensity among Hispanic voters on these issues. o In Nevada, 50% of Hispanic voters said jobs and the economy is their top concern, while only 18% cited immigration. 26 o In Texas, immigration was the 5 th highest concern among Hispanic voters behind education, jobs and the economy, reducing household costs, and reducing the national debt Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll; 500 Statewide Interviews with an oversample of 100 additional Hispanic voters; May 6-12, Chambers Lopez & Gaitán, LLC, Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in Nevada; 600 Hispanic Likely Voters Statewide; Aug 14-19, Grove Insight & Myers Research Poll in Texas; 500 Hispanic Likely Voters in Harris, Hidalgo, and Cameron Counties; Aug 24-31,

11 Appendix A: The West is the Fastest Growing Region Driven By Metro Areas US Census Bureau, State Rankings of Population Change 29 Western Rural Development Center, 11

12 Appendix B: Hispanic Population Growth in the West & Beyond (Sources: Pew Hispanic Center; US Census) 12

13 Appendix C: Electoral Trends Show Movement Toward Democrats 13

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15 Appendix D: Voter Registration Trends Show Movement Away From Republicans (Source: Secretaries of State Voter Registration) 15

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