PDF Summary: The Results of an Informative Political Review

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1 PREPARING FOR 2016 PART 1 DRIVING VOTER ACTIVITY THROUGH ADVERTISING IN SWING STATES As political operatives and strategists begin mobilizing for the upcoming 2016 Presidential election, the Rocket Fuel Research Team is taking a keen interest in the digital footprint left by voters, and their response to digital advertising. Most current digital political research focuses on the effectiveness of Get Out The Vote campaigns, while largely ignoring the impact of persuasion messaging (that is, persuading people to vote in a particular way). This piece looks at voters broader digital behavior and their responses to digital marketing. Recently, the team examined the attitudes of voters and collected data based on a study of registered voters in five key swing states. It revealed some methods for swaying voter intent before their ballot is cast.

2 METHODOLOGY For this study, Rocket Fuel conducted a survey of 2,832 registered voters in five swing states in which Rocket Fuel delivered media prior to the 2014 midterm elections. These states were Colorado, Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. The survey included a mix of voters (n = 2,479) and non-voters (n = 299) in the 2014 midterm elections, and queried these people on voting frequency, voting method, media recall, political issues, and political affiliations. The study also identified a subsegment called lapsed voter (n = 54), which consisted of individuals who voted in 2008 or 2010, but not in the two most recent U.S. elections. HIGHLIGHTS THE EFFECT OF DIGITAL POLITICAL MARKETING: 36% of respondents who had recently voted indicated that they voted in an election in response to seeing an online ad. Voters had high ad recall and took action after seeing ads, either by voting, watching a video, or clicking on an ad. Two in five recalled seeing digital political media prior to the 2014 midterms. Early timing of spend matters. The study found it s best to reach undecided voters over a month before an election, and not in the last few days. Most (70%) self-identified decided voters said that they committed to a candidate more than one month prior to the election while 40% had done so in a similar timeframe. The study suggests that voters should be reached as early in the election cycle as possible. 26% had already cemented their choice of candidate more than three months before election day. VOTER/NON-VOTER BEHAVIOR AND CHARACTERISTICS: Decided and undecided voters had very different pixel profiles. Decided voters were five times more likely to buy golf clubs. Undecideds were 47% more likely to be frugal. Decided voters tended to be a little older and more financially well-off than undecided voters. Voters were more likely to be homeowners, have an interest in credit cards, and be pro-life in the abortion debate. Non-voters tended to be more frugal, speak Spanish, and have a relatively low household income. HOW PARTY AFFILIATION AND ETHNIC BACKGROUND AFFECTED BEHAVIOR: Democrats (9%) and Libertarians (12%) were more likely to respond to ads through volunteering than Republicans (5%). Hispanics were more likely than Caucasians to sign up for a newsletter (9% vs. 5%), donate money to a cause (8% vs. 6%), or volunteer for a campaign or political cause (11% vs. 5%). African Americans were much more likely than Caucasians to volunteer for a campaign (9% vs. 2%) or a political cause (8% vs. 3%). Caucasians were much more likely to contact a representative (8% vs 3%). Preparing for 2016: Part 1 1

3 DIGITAL AD RECALL AMONG SWING STATE VOTERS AND NON-VOTERS In today s connected world, a lot of us spend a fair amount of time online, and that s true for many of the subjects in our study. We all see lots of ads while we re reading news or checking out Facebook, so it begs the question: how many people can actually remember seeing a digital political ad? Two in five voters remembered seeing digital political media prior to the 2014 midterms, and recall varied only slightly between voters from each major political party. Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated voters had roughly the same level of recall, at around 22% (+/-1). Though Libertarians reported the highest ad recall overall (38%), they accounted for only 3% of respondents in the study. From a strategic perspective for advertisers, the numbers suggested that there is little to be gained in terms of branding by courting one side over the other, except potentially swaying Libertarians toward one of the two major parties. ACCORDING TO RESPONDENTS DATA PROFILES, VOTERS AND NON-VOTERS EXHIBIT DIFFERENT INTERESTS, AS SHOWN IN THE TABLE BELOW: VOTERS WERE MORE LIKELY TO NON-VOTERS WERE MORE LIKELY TO: 1.8x be homeowners 3.0x spend money only when needed 1.7x have an interest in Discover card 1.6x have an interest in MasterCard 2.6x be Spanish speakers 2.5x have a HHI between $20-30K 1.5x be Pro-life 2.5x use mobile device from Huawei with carrier AT&T 1.5x be fiscally conservative on taxation 2.3x be single Also, voters were more likely to recall digital political advertisements than lapsed and non-voters. When looking at digital ad recall, 32% of voters recalled seeing political ads before an election, versus the 24% of non-voters and 26% of lapsed voters. SWING STATE VOTER AND NON-VOTER CHARACTERISTICS AND BEHAVIORS Data profiles also provide interesting data for comparisons between the voter and non-voter segments of our study. If we look at the profiles of each of our respondents, we can start to understand their third-party data profiles and how they relate to other respondents profiles. By better understanding what potential voters are really interested in, marketers and advertisers can better craft persuasive creative that directly addresses them. Based on data profile and survey results, voters in our study shared several general characteristics: They tended to be Baby Boomers and lean fiscally conservative, but were more inclined to favor socially liberal policies. We can also infer that our sample of voters was center-right on the political spectrum, came from middle-class households with an average household income between $50,000- $60,000 per year, and were mostly Caucasian. Non-voters tended to be younger, lean left-of-center on the political spectrum, and were likely to have fewer financial resources than most voters. You might describe this group as being older Millennials with fewer financial resources, but they nonetheless make an effort to stay politically aware. Preparing for 2016: Part 1 2

4 DRIVING GOTV SUCCESS WITH TAILORED MESSAGING IN DIGITAL MEDIA Overall, 36% of voters said that they voted in an election as a result of seeing an online advertisement. This result was also statistically significant (p>.95) across all groups, and underscores the importance of online advertising and its ability to drive the narrative of a campaign leading into an election. STEPS TAKEN AFTER VIEWING A POLITICAL AD ONLINE: BY VOTING TENDENCIES Political ads caused recent voters to spring into action more often than other groups. Digital political ads barely registered with lapsed and non-voters, with one noteworthy exception: Lapsed voters were slightly more likely to volunteer for a cause than voters, though you should consider this result as directional. While the smaller sample size for the lapsed-voter segment does not allow for statistical significance (p<80% sig), it does suggest that concentrating on issue-based messaging with an emphasis on volunteering time to a cause is one fruitful avenue for generating value from the lapsed-voter segment. Overall, we found 47% of registered voters in swing states took some form of action after exposure to a political ad. LAPSED NON-VOTER VOTER Clicked ad 7% 7% 13% Viewed video 9% 9% 16% Signed up for newsletter 2% 3% 6% Donated money to campaign 2% 3% 6% Donated money to cause 4% 1% 5% Volunteered for campaign 0% 1% 3% Volunteered for political cause 4% 0% 3% Contacted representative 4% 1% 8% Voted in election 11% 3% 36% None of these 78% 84% 52% Statistically, significance for votes determined comparing to both non-voters and lapsed voters. Significance for lapsed and non-voters determined by using voters as the comparison group. Preparing for 2016: Part 1 3

5 POLITICAL PARTIES How does party affiliation affect digital advertising? Breaking out the results by party shows a clear distinction in the actions taken post ad exposure. Democrats and Libertarians were statistically more likely (p >.95) to respond to ads by volunteering time to campaigns than their Republican counterparts and unaffiliated voters. Democrats were also more likely to signup for a newsletter than Republicans, and more likely to volunteer for a political cause (non-campaign) than unaffiliated voters (p >.90). There are no significant statistical differences in the Voted in Election category. The results reveal that advertisers seeking to reach Democrats using specific messaging may expect more bang for their buck when compared to similar messaging aimed at Republicans. However, most parties (excluding Independents) may expect to equally benefit from Vote In This Election messaging. STEPS TAKEN AFTER VIEWING A POLITICAL AD ONLINE: BY PARTY AFFILIATION DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN LIBERTARIAN NO AFFILIATION Clicked ad 14% 12% 11% 12% Viewed video 16% 15% 20% 14% Signed up for newsletter 6% 4% 9% 5% Donated money to campaign 7% 5% 7% 5% Donated money to cause 5% 4% 4% 4% Volunteered for campaign 5% 2% 6% 2% Volunteered for political cause 4% 3% 6% 2% Contacted representative 7% 6% 9% 8% Voted in election 36% 35% 38% 24% None of these 52% 55% 46% 65% Preparing for 2016: Part 1 4

6 ETHNICITIES Different ethnic groups responded to digital political marketing efforts in different ways. African Americans were statistically more likely than Caucasians to respond to ads in most categories (p>.90), with the exception of contacting a representative and donating money to a cause. There were weaker indications for clicking on an ad and viewing a political video, both positive in the direction of African Americans over Caucasians (p>.80). The results from the Voted in an Election checkbox in our survey closely mirrors census data, which has African Americans voting at greater rates than all other ethnic groups in the most recent Presidential election. Hispanics were more likely than Caucasians to sign up for a newsletter, donate money to a cause, volunteer for a campaign, and volunteer for a political cause (p>.90). This information can be very useful for a grassroots GOTV strategy. GOTV initiatives targeting highdensity African American or Hispanic regions might see positive results from creative messaging that focuses on one or more of the actions specified above. Caucasian voters, while generally less engaged and responsive to ads than other ethnic groups, might be reached with Contact your Representative messaging in digital media. STEPS TAKEN AFTER VIEWING A POLITICAL AD ONLINE: BY ETHNICITY WHITE AFRICAN AMERICAN HISPANIC Clicked ad 12% 15% 12% Viewed video 15% 18% 17% Signed up for newsletter 5% 8% 9% Donated money to campaign 6% 9% 8% Donated money to cause 4% 5% 9% Volunteered for campaign 2% 9% 6% Volunteered for political cause 3% 8% 5% Contacted representative 8% 3% 9% Voted in election 36% 40% 40% None of these 54% 43% 44% Statistically significance for AFRICAN AMERICAN and HISPANIC groups determined by using Caucasians as the comparison group. Preparing for 2016: Part 1 5

7 WHO ARE UNDECIDEDS, AND HOW DO THEY VOTE? For this study, we defined undecideds as those who said they did not VOTING TIME BY DECIDED/UNDECIDED STATUS know who they would vote for prior to one week before the election. Decides Undecides About one-fifth (19%) of our voters group were undecided in 100% recent elections. 90% 80% We also asked all of our survey participants (voters, non-voters, 70% 60% and lapsed voters alike), Are you an undecided voter? This was an attempt to measure the number of hearts and minds still receptive to persuasion messaging during the campaign season on a more subjective basis. Most (70%) self-reported decideds said that they 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% committed to a candidate more than one month prior to the election while 40% of self-identified undecideds had done so. Collectively, 61% of voters from both groups had decided on a candidate in the 0% 3+ Months 1-2 Months 2-4 Weeks 2-7 Days Day Before Filling out a ballot (Figure 1) same time frame. (Figure 1) By state, Illinois and North Carolina had the highest number of undecideds in our sample, and therefore were more open to potential influence during the latter part of an election campaign. Colorado, Florida, and Wisconsin had fewer undecided respondents. These insights are key; knowing when voters are most susceptible to persuasion messaging by voting method might allow advertisers to better target swing voters who are still sitting on the fence. For decided voters, those who voted by mail in lieu of using a polling station were 26% more likely to have cemented their choice of a candidate more than three months before election day. If advertisers want to reach these people, they would be well advised to do so several months before voting begins. DECIDED ON CANDIDATE 1 WEEK OR LESS BEFORE ELECTION, BY STATE 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 25.6% 23.0% 21.6% 19.1% 18.4% CO FL IL NC WI As for the undecideds, people who voted at the polls and not by mail are 49% more likely to have not decided on a candidate until two to four weeks before election day. Absentee voters are twice as likely as in-person voters to have not selected a candidate two to seven days before election day. Moving beyond our survey methodology, we discovered additional insights that advertisers can use to classify and prospect decided and undecided voters. By using our survey respondents data profiles, advertisers can get a sense about what piques the interest of prospective voters and how to reach them with messages designed to attract their attention. % VOTING METHOD 54% Cast ballots at voting booth 22% By mail 18% Early voting 6% Absentee ballot (Figure 2) (Figure 3) Preparing for 2016: Part 1 6

8 Self-reported decided voters tended to be a little older and more well-off than their undecided counterparts. Their Internet browsing behavior revealed bigger-ticket purchases sprinkled amongst the procurement of more common household items. Television was a big factor for decided voters, with viewership habits appearing in the moderate-to-heavy range. The profiles of self-reported undecideds tended to gravitate toward more working-class and lower income segments than their decided counterparts. They tended to be relatively younger (more Generation X than Baby Boomer) and can be characterized as frugal. Politically, they lean fiscally conservative and socially liberal. All of this has implications for digital advertising. The data say that advertisers should consider reaching undecideds more than one month before the election, as much of the decision-making process occurs before the final weeks leading into the election. Decided voters make up their minds even sooner, incenting advertisers to seek to influence those voters more than two months before election day. VOTING TIME BY VOTING METHOD 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Absentee Polling Station By Mail Early Voting 3+ Months 1-2 Months DECIDED VOTERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO: 2-4 Weeks 2-7 Days Day Before UNDECIDED VOTERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO: 5.2x buy golf clubs +47% be more frugal Filling out a ballot (Figure 4) 4.7x have interest in home and garden 4.6x have researched Type II diabetes +32% watch March Madness +27% enjoy wine 4.6x watch daytime TV +15% be a sports fan 3.8x watch game shows +12% be a part of Generation X 3.6 have an interest in photography +11% enjoy DIY projects (Figure 5) Preparing for 2016: Part 1 7

9 CONCLUSION Right now, many campaigns spend a lot of money in the last few days before decision day. However, the results of our survey show that advertisers seeking to persuade voters to take a particular course of action should begin spending their media dollars well in advance of election day, and focus on GOTV initiatives within the final four weeks of an election campaign. Ultimately, our study shows that hitting the right voters at the right time with the right message is crucial to driving successful political campaigns. We hope that these insights will put you on the path to success as you embark on your next campaign. Good luck! Preparing for 2016: Part 1 8