IL: KERRY LEADS BUSH BY 13 PTS; OBAMA ON TOP OF RYAN BY 11 PTS

Transcription

1 IL: KERRY LEADS BUSH BY 13 PTS; OBAMA ON TOP OF RYAN BY 11 PTS DEMOCRATS POISED TO PICK-UP U.S. SENATE SEAT BEING VACATED BY FITZGERALD IN AN ELECTION TODAY, JOHN KERRY CARRIES IL & BARACK OBAMA IS ELECTED TO THE U.S. SENATE, ACCORDING TO SURVEYUSA POLL OF 742 LIKELY VOTERS CONDUCTED 6/7 + 6/8 + 6/9. KERRY DEFEATS GEORGE W. BUSH 52% TO 39% TODAY, 5 MOS TO VOTE. 80% OF BUSH VOTERS ARE VOTING "FOR" BUSH. 61% OF KERRY VOTERS ARE VOTING "AGAINST" BUSH, NOT "FOR" KERRY. OBAMA TOPS GOP JACK RYAN 50% TO 39% TODAY, TO CAPTURE SEAT BEING VACATED BY GOP PETER FITZGERALD, A DEMOCRAT PICK-UP. RYAN LEADS BY 11 PTS IN COLLAR COUNTIES & DOWNSTATE, BUT THAT'S NOT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME OBAMA'S 54 PT LEAD IN CHICAGO & 22 PT LEAD IN SUBURBAN COOK. RYAN HOLDS 84% OF GOP BASE, OBAMA 81% OF DEM BASE. INDYS VOTE DEM 5:4. OBAMA UP 20 AMONG FEMALES, TIED AMONG MALES. OBAMA UP 22 AMONG YOUNG, UP 4 AMONG OLD. RESEARCH CONDUCTED E.T :00-21: :30-21: :30-21:58 ET RESPONDENTS DRAWN FROM THE ENTIRE STATE OF ILLINOIS RANDOM SAMPLE SELECTED BY SURVEY SAMPLING INC. RESEARCH CONDUCTED FOR WBBM-TV CHICAGO AND KSDK-TV ST. LOUIS 2004 SURVEYUSA, PROUD TO BE AMERICA'S POLLSTER PAGE 1 OF 13

2 VOTE FOR PRESIDENT / ALL LIKELY VOTERS ON NOVEMBER 2ND, AMERICANS WILL ELECT A PRESIDENT. IF THE ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES WERE TODAY, AND YOU WERE STANDING IN THE VOTING BOOTH RIGHT NOW, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR? REPUBLICAN GEORGE W. BUSH? DEMOCRAT JOHN KERRY? OR SOME OTHER CANDIDATE? BUSH (R) 39% KERRY (D) 52% OTHER 5% UNDECIDED 3% IN 2000, GORE CAPTURED ILLINOIS' 21 ELECTORAL VOTES, DEFEATING BUSH BY 12 PTS THIS IS A SURVEY OF 742 LIKELY VOTERS FROM THE ENTIRE STATE OF ILLINOIS RESULTS CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT ±3.7% A LARGER ± APPLIES TO SUBPOPULATIONS RESULTS MAY NOT ADD TO 100%, BECAUSE PERCENTAGES ARE ROUNDED TO WHOLE NUMBERS PAGE 2 OF 13

3 VOTE FOR SENATOR / ALL LIKELY VOTERS ILLINOIS VOTERS MAY ALSO VOTE IN AN ELECTION FOR UNITED STATES SENATOR. IF THE ELECTION FOR U.S. SENATOR FROM ILLINOIS WERE TODAY, AND YOU WERE STANDING IN THE VOTING BOOTH RIGHT NOW, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR? REPUBLICAN JACK RYAN? DEMOCRAT BARACK OBAMA? OR SOME OTHER CANDIDATE? RYAN (R) 39% OBAMA (D) 50% OTHER 7% UNDECIDED 3% THIS IS A SURVEY OF 736 LIKELY VOTERS FROM THE ENTIRE STATE OF ILLINOIS RESULTS CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT ±3.7% A LARGER ± APPLIES TO SUBPOPULATIONS RESULTS MAY NOT ADD TO 100%, BECAUSE PERCENTAGES ARE ROUNDED TO WHOLE NUMBERS PAGE 3 OF 13

4 VOTE FOR PRESIDENT / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX CERTAIN PROBABLE MALE FEMALE AGE AGE AGE AGE 65+ WHITE BLACK HISPANIC ASIAN/OTHER BUSH (R) KERRY (D) RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY BUSH (R) 39% 40% 35% 41% 38% 31% 46% 39% 43% 47% 10% 29% 32% KERRY (D) 52% 53% 52% 51% 54% 62% 49% 49% 49% 45% 86% 62% 48% OTHER 5% 4% 10% 5% 5% 6% 3% 8% 3% 5% 2% 7% 16% UNDECIDED 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 1% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% FOR CANDIDATE 80% 38% AGAINST OTHER CAND. 19% 61% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES BUSH (R) KERRY (D) OTHER UNDECIDED CERTAIN PROBABLE MALE FEMALE AGE AGE AGE AGE 65+ WHITE BLACK HISPANIC ASIAN/OTHER PAGE 4 OF 13

5 VOTE FOR PRESIDENT / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT/OTHER GRAD SCHOOL COLLEGE GRAD SOME COLLEGE NO COLLEGE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL MILITARY/VET NON-MILITARY/VET RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY BUSH (R) 39% 89% 7% 37% 38% 39% 38% 44% 69% 29% 18% 40% 39% KERRY (D) 52% 8% 86% 49% 55% 54% 55% 45% 24% 62% 74% 51% 53% OTHER 5% 1% 5% 10% 4% 4% 4% 8% 3% 6% 8% 5% 5% UNDECIDED 3% 3% 2% 4% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 1% 3% 2% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES BUSH (R) KERRY (D) OTHER UNDECIDED REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT/OTHER GRAD SCHOOL COLLEGE GRAD SOME COLLEGE NO COLLEGE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL MILITARY/VET NON-MILITARY/VET PAGE 5 OF 13

6 VOTE FOR PRESIDENT / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX NO RELIGIOUS SERVICES OCCASIONAL RELIGIOUS SERVICES REGULAR RELIGIOUS SERVICES PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE UNION NON-UNION CHICAGO CITY SUBURBAN COOK COLLAR COUNTIES DOWNSTATE URBAN SUBURBAN RURAL RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY BUSH (R) 39% 37% 32% 49% 63% 26% 28% 45% 17% 37% 51% 49% 26% 47% 50% KERRY (D) 52% 55% 60% 44% 32% 65% 62% 48% 76% 52% 42% 43% 68% 45% 39% OTHER 5% 8% 5% 4% 3% 6% 7% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 4% 5% 8% UNDECIDED 3% 1% 4% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 6% 1% 3% 2% 3% 3% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES BUSH (R) KERRY (D) OTHER UNDECIDED NO RELIGIOUS SERVICES OCCASIONAL RELIGIOUS SERVICES REGULAR RELIGIOUS SERVICES PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE UNION NON-UNION CHICAGO CITY SUBURBAN COOK COLLAR COUNTIES DOWNSTATE URBAN SUBURBAN RURAL PAGE 6 OF 13

7 VOTE FOR SENATOR / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX CERTAIN PROBABLE MALE FEMALE AGE AGE AGE AGE 65+ WHITE BLACK HISPANIC ASIAN/OTHER RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY RYAN (R) 39% 41% 36% 45% 34% 35% 44% 36% 42% 47% 10% 29% 22% OBAMA (D) 50% 53% 43% 47% 54% 57% 47% 51% 46% 41% 85% 64% 65% OTHER 7% 6% 15% 7% 8% 5% 9% 8% 7% 8% 3% 6% 12% UNDECIDED 3% 0% 7% 1% 5% 3% 1% 4% 4% 4% 2% 0% 1% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES RYAN (R) OBAMA (D) OTHER UNDECIDED CERTAIN PROBABLE MALE FEMALE AGE AGE AGE AGE 65+ WHITE BLACK HISPANIC ASIAN/OTHER PAGE 7 OF 13

8 VOTE FOR SENATOR / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT/OTHER GRAD SCHOOL COLLEGE GRAD SOME COLLEGE NO COLLEGE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL MILITARY/VET NON-MILITARY/VET RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY RYAN (R) 39% 84% 10% 38% 37% 41% 37% 45% 66% 31% 21% 42% 37% OBAMA (D) 50% 10% 81% 47% 52% 54% 52% 41% 25% 57% 76% 47% 54% OTHER 7% 5% 7% 11% 6% 4% 8% 11% 7% 10% 2% 8% 7% UNDECIDED 3% 2% 2% 4% 4% 1% 3% 3% 2% 3% 1% 3% 2% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES RYAN (R) OBAMA (D) OTHER UNDECIDED REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT/OTHER GRAD SCHOOL COLLEGE GRAD SOME COLLEGE NO COLLEGE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL MILITARY/VET NON-MILITARY/VET PAGE 8 OF 13

9 VOTE FOR SENATOR / RESPONSES COMPARED BY PERCENTAGES AND BY INDEX NO RELIGIOUS SERVICES OCCASIONAL RELIGIOUS SERVICES REGULAR RELIGIOUS SERVICES PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE UNION NON-UNION CHICAGO CITY SUBURBAN COOK COLLAR COUNTIES DOWNSTATE URBAN SUBURBAN RURAL RESPONSES SORTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY RYAN (R) 39% 39% 33% 46% 59% 29% 30% 43% 20% 36% 51% 48% 28% 45% 51% OBAMA (D) 50% 50% 57% 45% 32% 62% 59% 47% 74% 58% 40% 37% 65% 44% 35% OTHER 7% 10% 7% 6% 6% 7% 9% 7% 4% 4% 8% 11% 5% 8% 11% UNDECIDED 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 1% 4% 2% 3% 4% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DEMOGRAPHIC SUBPOPULATIONS INDEXED TO RESPONSES RYAN (R) OBAMA (D) OTHER UNDECIDED NO RELIGIOUS SERVICES OCCASIONAL RELIGIOUS SERVICES REGULAR RELIGIOUS SERVICES PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE UNION NON-UNION CHICAGO CITY SUBURBAN COOK COLLAR COUNTIES DOWNSTATE URBAN SUBURBAN RURAL PAGE 9 OF 13

10 RAW COUNTS FOR ALL RESPONSE CHOICES THE RESPONSES OF A SUBPOPULATION OF 100 WOULD TYPICALLY BE CONSIDERED ACCURATE ± 10%. PLEASE EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IN DRAWING CONCLUSIONS FROM SUBPOPULATIONS SMALLER THAN 100 CERTAIN PROBABLE MALE FEMALE AGE AGE AGE AGE 65+ WHITE BLACK HISPANIC ASIAN/OTHER FOR CANDIDATE AGAINST OTHER CAND. REGISTERED CERTAIN PROBABLE LIKELY BUSH (R) KERRY (D) OTHER UNDECIDED RYAN (R) OBAMA (D) OTHER WON'T VOTE UNDECIDED TOTAL COMPOSITION OF ADULTS 100% 64% 10% 48% 52% 32% 31% 21% 16% 72% 13% 11% 4% 38% 29% COMP. OF REGISTERED 100% 73% 11% 49% 51% 29% 31% 23% 17% 72% 14% 11% 4% 43% 33% COMP OF LIKELY VOTERS 100% 87% 13% 49% 51% 27% 32% 24% 16% 72% 14% 10% 4% 51% 40% COMP OF CERTAIN VOTERS 100% 100% 0% 50% 50% 25% 32% 25% 17% 71% 14% 11% 4% 54% 38% 1000 ILLINOIS ADULTS INTERVIEWED BY TELEPHONE 6/7-6/9. OF THEM, 888 WERE REGISTERED TO VOTE. OF THEM, 742 WERE JUDGED TO BE 'LIKELY' VOTERS. OF THEM, 644 WERE JUDGED TO BE 'CERTAIN' TO VOTE. GRAPHS REFLECT 'LIKELY' VOTERS. PAGE 10 OF 13

11 RAW COUNTS FOR ALL RESPONSE CHOICES THE RESPONSES OF A SUBPOPULATION OF 100 WOULD TYPICALLY BE CONSIDERED ACCURATE ± 10%. PLEASE EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IN DRAWING CONCLUSIONS FROM SUBPOPULATIONS SMALLER THAN 100 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT/OTHER GRAD SCHOOL COLLEGE GRAD SOME COLLEGE NO COLLEGE CONSERVATIVE MODERATE LIBERAL MILITARY/VET NON-MILITARY/VET REGISTERED CERTAIN PROBABLE LIKELY BUSH (R) KERRY (D) OTHER UNDECIDED RYAN (R) OBAMA (D) OTHER WON'T VOTE UNDECIDED TOTAL COMPOSITION OF ADULTS 100% 24% 36% 26% 20% 20% 30% 29% 31% 46% 17% 53% 44% COMP. OF REGISTERED 100% 27% 41% 29% 20% 21% 30% 27% 30% 47% 17% 55% 43% COMP OF LIKELY VOTERS 100% 29% 41% 27% 21% 23% 31% 24% 31% 48% 16% 54% 44% COMP OF CERTAIN VOTERS 100% 30% 43% 25% 21% 23% 32% 23% 33% 46% 17% 55% 42% 1000 ILLINOIS ADULTS INTERVIEWED BY TELEPHONE 6/7-6/9. OF THEM, 888 WERE REGISTERED TO VOTE. OF THEM, 742 WERE JUDGED TO BE 'LIKELY' VOTERS. OF THEM, 644 WERE JUDGED TO BE 'CERTAIN' TO VOTE. GRAPHS REFLECT 'LIKELY' VOTERS. PAGE 11 OF 13

12 RAW COUNTS FOR ALL RESPONSE CHOICES THE RESPONSES OF A SUBPOPULATION OF 100 WOULD TYPICALLY BE CONSIDERED ACCURATE ± 10%. PLEASE EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IN DRAWING CONCLUSIONS FROM SUBPOPULATIONS SMALLER THAN 100 NO RELIGIOUS SERVICES OCCASIONAL RELIGIOUS SERVICES REGULAR RELIGIOUS SERVICES PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE UNION NON-UNION CHICAGO CITY SUBURBAN COOK COLLAR COUNTIES DOWNSTATE URBAN SUBURBAN RURAL REGISTERED CERTAIN PROBABLE LIKELY BUSH (R) KERRY (D) OTHER UNDECIDED RYAN (R) OBAMA (D) OTHER WON'T VOTE UNDECIDED TOTAL COMPOSITION OF ADULTS 100% 24% 37% 35% 35% 54% 27% 65% 22% 19% 19% 40% 36% 48% 16% COMP. OF REGISTERED 100% 24% 36% 37% 35% 55% 27% 65% 23% 19% 18% 40% 36% 48% 17% COMP OF LIKELY VOTERS 100% 23% 34% 40% 36% 56% 26% 66% 24% 18% 18% 40% 37% 47% 16% COMP OF CERTAIN VOTERS 100% 22% 34% 41% 37% 55% 28% 64% 25% 18% 18% 40% 37% 47% 16% 1000 ILLINOIS ADULTS INTERVIEWED BY TELEPHONE 6/7-6/9. OF THEM, 888 WERE REGISTERED TO VOTE. OF THEM, 742 WERE JUDGED TO BE 'LIKELY' VOTERS. OF THEM, 644 WERE JUDGED TO BE 'CERTAIN' TO VOTE. GRAPHS REFLECT 'LIKELY' VOTERS. PAGE 12 OF 13

13 The following is a material part of this report and should be included when data is referenced: How this poll was conducted: This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Page 1 of this report contains: the geography that was surveyed; the dates interviews were conducted; the news organization that paid for the research; and the name of the random sample provider. The universe of respondents and the margin of error are stated on Page 2 of this report, and if restated on one or more subsequent pages, it is because the universe and margin of error changed for those subsequent questions. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S. Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Verona, NJ. These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. PAGE 13 OF 13