National Survey of Hispanic Voters on Social Security. April 20, 2005

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1 National Survey of Hispanic Voters on Social Security April 20, 2005

2 Methodology Sample Hispanic registered voters Number of Interviews 880 Language of Interviews English and Spanish Margin of Error 3 percentage points Dates of Interviews March 28th April 10th of

3 Demographics of Sample

4 Age 17% 15% % % % 65 and over 4

5 Language of Interview English 45% 55% Spanish 5

6 Annual Household Income Less than $25,000 20% $25,000 to less than $50,000 29% $50,000 to less than $75,000 15% $75,000 or more 18% No answer 18% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 6

7 Education Less than high school 21% High school diploma 24% Some college / Technical school 27% College graduate 19% Graduate school 7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 7

8 Country of Birth 7% 4% 3%1% 3% United States Mexico Puerto Rico 8% Cuba 54% Central America South America 20% Dominican Republic Other 8

9 Gender Male 47% 53% Female 9

10 Region 18% Northeast 39% 8% Midwest South West 35% 10

11 Party Registration Democrat 57% Republican 21% Independent 17% Other party / No answer 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 11

12 Strategic Recommendations about Bush s Social Security Plan

13 A. A substantial percentage of the Hispanic electorate is either unaware of President Bush s Social Security proposal or does not have an opinion about it. An aggressive and creative campaign by supporters or opponents of the proposal could influence a majority of these voters. 13

14 Are you aware of President Bush s plan for Social Security? 29% Yes 71% No 14

15 Do you think President Bush s plan for Social Security is a good idea or a bad idea? 17% Good idea 29% Bad idea Undecided / No opinion 12% 42% Not aware 15

16 Do you think President Bush s plan for Social Security is a good idea or a bad idea? Spanish dominant voters 19% Good idea 45% Bad idea 36% Unaware / Undecided / No opinion 16

17 Volatility of the Hispanic electorate on the Social Security issue Only 17 percent support the proposal when it is presented simply as President Bush s Social Security plan. Support grows to 40 percent when it is described as a plan that would allow individuals to voluntarily invest a portion of their Social Security taxes in stocks and bonds. Support drops to 26 percent when it is described as a plan to privatize Social Security. 17

18 B. Spanish-dominant Hispanic voters are most likely to be uninformed about the President s plan and also are most likely to be convinced that it is a bad idea. They should be considered the primary target voter group for a communications campaign against the Social Security proposal. 18

19 Do you think President Bush s plan for Social Security is a good idea or a bad idea? All Hispanic Voters Before arguments 17% 42% 41% Good idea Bad idea After arguments 9% 26% 65% Don't know / No answer 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 19

20 Do you think President Bush s plan for Social Security is a good idea or a bad idea? Spanish-dominant only Before arguments 20% 36% 44% Good idea Bad idea After arguments 10% 27% 63% Don't know / No answer 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 20

21 Do you think President Bush s plan for Social Security is a good idea or a bad idea? English-dominant only Before arguments 15% 37% 48% Good idea Bad idea After arguments 10% 25% 65% Don't know / No answer 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 21

22 Target voters and Bush movers Thirty-nine percent of all Hispanic voters changed their minds about President Bush s Social Security plan after listening to the arguments about the proposal. Target voters : 26 percent were either in favor or undecided about the plan before the arguments but after listening to the arguments opposed the plan. Bush movers : 13 percent were either opposed or undecided about the plan before the arguments but after listening to the arguments supported the plan. 22

23 Target voters Language of Interview Spanish dominant 45% 55% English dominant 23

24 Target voters Gender Male 43% 57% Female 24

25 Target voters Age 35% Under 40 65% 40 or more 25

26 Target voters Who do you trust more?* President Bush 42% 58% The Congressional Hispanic Caucus * Undecided respondents not shown. 26

27 Bush movers Language of Interview Spanish dominant 43% 57% English dominant 27

28 Bush movers Gender Male 45% 55% Female 28

29 Bush movers Age Under 40 48% 52% 40 or more 29

30 Bush movers Who do you trust more?* President Bush 43% 57% The Congressional Hispanic Caucus * Undecided respondents not shown. 30

31 C. The messages and arguments that Hispanic voters find very convincing on this issue are those that are simply worded and easy to understand. This is the case for both the supporting arguments and the opposing arguments to President Bush s plan. 31

32 Effectiveness of Arguments All Hispanic Voters Very convincing answers only Most effective argument 47% Least effective argument 21% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 32

33 Effectiveness of Arguments Target voters Very convincing answers only Most effective argument 55% Least effective argument 15% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 33

34 Effectiveness of Arguments Bush movers Very convincing answers only Most effective argument 55% Least effective argument 19% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 34

35 Simple Arguments Work Best Social Security is headed toward bankruptcy and we must act now to save it. Personal retirement accounts made up of stocks and bonds give younger workers the chance to save a portion of their money in an account and watch it grow over time at a greater rate than anything the current system can deliver. 42% Very convincing 21% Very convincing 35

36 D. The message in opposition to Bush s Social Security plan should focus on the concepts of risk and potential poverty for millions of seniors. 36

37 Arguments against President Bush s Plan All Hispanic voters Very convincing answers Private accounts made up of stocks and bonds are a risky investment and people could lose a lot of their money. Privatizing Social Security could leave millions of seniors in poverty and unable to afford housing, food or medicine. Social Security is not in crisis and only needs minor changes to continue to provide services to future generations. President Bush s plan for Social Security will add trillions of dollars to the federal budget deficit and put the U.S. economy at risk. President Bush is making false promises about how private accounts will work for you and your family. President Bush s plan will cut the guaranteed Social Security benefits for every American even if you choose not to have a private investment account. 47% 47% 36% 35% 34% 30% 37

38 Arguments against President Bush s Plan Target voters Very convincing answers Privatizing Social Security could leave millions of seniors in poverty and unable to afford housing, food or medicine. Private accounts made up of stocks and bonds are a risky investment and people could lose a lot of their money. Social Security is not in crisis and only needs minor changes to continue to provide services to future generations. President Bush s plan for Social Security will add trillions of dollars to the federal budget deficit and put the U.S. economy at risk. President Bush is making false promises about how private accounts will work for you and your family. President Bush s plan will cut the guaranteed Social Security benefits for every American even if you choose NOT to have a private investment account. 55% 47% 36% 34% 33% 29% 38

39 Recommended Message President Bush s proposal on Social Security is a bad idea because it could leave millions of senior citizens without the money to pay for their basic necessities. 39

40 E. The most effective argument in favor of President Bush s plan is based on the concept of imminent bankruptcy for the Social Security system. Opponents of the plan should develop a simple and clear statement to refute that argument. 40

41 Arguments for President Bush s Plan All Hispanic voters Very convincing answers Social Security is headed toward bankruptcy and we must act now to save it. A worker s family can inherit any unused portion of their personal retirement account made up of stocks and bonds. Your personal retirement account will not be at risk; the federal government will only allow you to invest in safe stocks and bonds. Personal retirement accounts made up of stocks and bonds would provide you with ownership and control over the taxes you contribute to Social Security. Personal retirement accounts made up of stocks and bonds give younger workers the chance to save a portion of their money in an account and watch it grow over time at a greater rate than anything the current system can deliver. 42% 34% 29% 26% 21% 41

42 Arguments for President Bush s Plan Bush movers Very convincing answers Social Security is headed toward bankruptcy and we must act now to save it. A worker s family can inherit any unused portion of their personal retirement account made up of stocks and bonds. Your personal retirement account will not be at risk; the federal government will only allow you to invest in safe stocks and bonds. Personal retirement accounts made up of stocks and bonds give younger workers the chance to save a portion of their money in an account and watch it grow over time at a greater rate than anything the current system can deliver. Personal retirement accounts made up of stocks and bonds would provide you with ownership and control over the taxes you contribute to Social Security. 55% 51% 49% 42% 37% 42

43 Recommended Message Democrats and Republicans agree that Social Security is financially sound until the year President Bush exaggerates when he suggests that the program will be bankrupt in the near future. 43

44 For Further Information: Phone Fax Ponce de Leon Blvd, Suite 1111 Coral Gables, FL

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