2014 Midterm Elections: Voter Dissatisfaction with the President and Washington October 23-27, 2014

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1 CBS NEWS POLL For release: Wednesday, October 29, :30 pm EDT 2014 Midterm Elections: Voter Dissatisfaction with the President and Washington October 23-27, % of voters expect the Republicans to take control of the Senate this year, but 45% now say it doesn t matter which party controls Congress a record high. Americans continue to disapprove of Congress. Just 7% think most members deserve reelection. Most are unhappy with the way government is working. 73% say they trust the government in Washington only some of the time. President Barack Obama s approval rating is 39% heading into the midterms; only slightly higher than George W. Bush s in October Republicans lead the Democrats on the generic ballot; and are seen as the party that will do a better job on both the economy and foreign policy. Expectations for the Senate Regardless of whether they will vote in a Senate race this year, 51% of registered voters nationwide expect the Republican Party to win control of the U.S. Senate. Self-identified Republicans expect their party to prevail, while Democrats think their party will keep control. A slim majority of independents think the Republicans will win Senate control. Expect to Win Control of U.S. Senate Total Reps Dems Inds Republican party 51% 79% 25% 52% Democratic party Don t know Pessimism about Congress But some voters think the outcome may not matter. 45% -- a record high among registered voters in CBS News Polls -- now say they agree with the statement It makes no real difference which party controls Congress, things go on just as they did before. Still, 53% think it does matter which party controls Congress. It Makes No Real Difference Which Party Controls Congress Things Go On Just as They Did Before Now 5/2014 9/ / /1998 Agree 45% 43% 34% 34% 39% Disagree

2 A week ahead of the midterm elections that will decide control of Congress, Congress approval rating remains overwhelmingly negative. Just 14% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, while 76% disapprove. These ratings match what they were four years ago, heading into the 2010 midterm elections. Job Rating of Congress Now 10/8/2014 5/ / /2010 Approve 14% 15% 12% 9% 14% Disapprove Disapproval extends to both political parties in Congress. Ratings of Political Parties in Congress Republicans in Congress Democrats in Congress Approve 21% 29% Disapprove Dissatisfaction with Congress is reflected in the very low percentage of voters who think most members of Congress deserve re-election. By a lopsided margin, voters continue to think most members of Congress do not deserve to be re-elected. Most Members of Congress Deserve Re-Election? Now 9/2014 2/2010 9/ / /1998 Yes, deserve re-election 7% 5% 8% 12% 15% 24% No, time for new people They are more positive about their own Representative, but still a majority of voters thinks it is time for a new person in their district. Own Member of Congress Deserve Re-Election? Now 9/2014 9/2010 9/ / / /1990 Yes, deserves re-election 32% 28% 34% 42% 50% 38% 47% No, time for new person The Obama Factor President Obama is not on the ballot this year, but he is a motivating force for some voters, particularly Republicans. More than half of Republicans (59%) say their vote for Congress will be against the president. Fewer Democrats (43%) say their vote will be in support of the President. Do You See Midterm Vote as For or Against Pres. Obama? Total Reps Dems Inds For Obama 19% 2% 43% 11% Against Obama Not about Obama

3 Heading into the midterm elections, President Obama s approval rating is 39% -- just a bit higher than George W. Bush s in the fall of 2006, when Democrats took control of the House and Senate. Mr. Obama s approval rating is considerably lower than both Ronald Reagan s and Bill Clinton s at this point in their presidencies. The President s party typically loses seats in a midterm; one exception was in 1998, during Bill Clinton s presidency, when the Democratic party gained seats in the House. Midterm Approval Ratings: President Obama vs. Past Two-Term Presidents Approve Disapprove Barack Obama 39% 51 (10/2014) George W. Bush 34% 58 (10/2006) Bill Clinton 65% 30 (10/1998) Ronald Reagan 67% 25 (10/1986) At 39%, Mr. Obama s approval rating is just two points above his all-time low reached nearly a year ago. 51% of Americans disapprove. President Obama s Overall Job Rating Now 10/8/2014 9/ / / /2010 Approve 39% 42% 40% 37% 50% 45% Disapprove More Americans approve (47%) than disapprove (41%) of how President Obama is handling the threat from Ebola. But Americans give the President lower marks on other issues. A majority of Americans disapprove of how President Obama is handling the economy, and he gets net negative ratings for his handling of terrorism (41%), the threat of ISIS (38%), and foreign policy (34%). The Midterm Elections President Obama s Job Ratings on Issues Approve Disapprove Ebola 47% 41 Economy 41% 52 Terrorism 41% 49 ISIS 38% 50 Foreign policy 34% 54 Republicans continue to hold a lead in the national Congressional ballot test: 47% of likely voters say they will support the Republican candidate in their district, while 40% support the Democrat. Generic Ballot: 2014 Congressional Vote (Among likely voters) Now 10/8/2014 Total w/leaners Total w/leaners Republican 47% 50% 46% 49% Democrat Depends/Not sure

4 About nine in ten Republicans, and a similar percentage of Democrats, say they support their party s candidate for the House of Representatives. Independents are supporting the Republican candidate. 32% of voters are paying a lot of attention to the campaign, a figure that has steadily risen since September, and is similar to the percentage who said the same four years ago. Attention to the Campaign Now 10/8/2014 9/ /2010 A lot 32% 30% 24% 35% Some Not much None Four in ten voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year compared to past elections. 47% say they are less enthusiastic, up 13 points from the 34% who said that in October Republican voters (48%) are more likely than Democratic voters (42%) to say they are more enthusiastic. Congressional Elections: Enthusiasm about Voting Total Reps Dems Inds 10/2010 More 40% 48% 42% 33% 47% Less The same (vol.) Voters continue to choose the economy (38%) as the most important issue in their vote for Congress this year, followed by health care (23%) and terrorism (11%). Most Important Issue in Your Vote Total Reps Dems Inds Economy 38% 32% 45% 36% Health care Terrorism Immigration Budget deficit International conflicts Most voters choosing between the country s two major parties say that the main reason they are supporting their candidate is because of his or her positions on the issues. The candidate s party and personal qualities are far less likely to be chosen. Main Reason Supporting Candidate? (Among registered voters who support a Democratic or Republican) Position on issues 69% Because they are a Democrat/Republican 15 Personal qualities 11 4

5 More broadly, national issues (51%) will matter more than local issues (37%) this fall; this is the case for both Republicans and Democrats. Which Will Matter More in Your Vote? Total Reps Dems Inds National issues 51% 59% 49% 47% State/local issues Both (vol.) Heading into the final pre-election stretch, the Republicans have the advantage on some key issues. By a seven-point margin, voters say the Republican Party will do a better job handling the economy the top issue for voters. The Republicans also have the advantage on foreign policy and hold their widest lead on the issue of terrorism. The parties are even on immigration, while the Democrats lead on health care. Voters do give the Democratic Party a lead over the Republicans on caring about the needs and problems of people like themselves. Issues: Which Party Will Do a Better Job On? Republican Democratic Terrorism 51% 31 The economy 47% 40 Foreign policy 47% 37 Immigration 44% 42 Health care 41% 47 Cares more about people like me 33% 51 The Economy 58% of Americans think the condition of the national economy is at least somewhat bad, while just 40% characterize it as good. Though down slightly from earlier this month, positive views of the economy have slowly improved overall since the onset of the financial crisis in October Condition of the Economy Now 10/8/ / / /2008 Good 40% 43% 32% 21% 11% Bad But few Americans think the economy is now getting better - just 25% say so down four percentage points from earlier this month. More Americans think the economy is either getting worse (27%) or staying the same (46%). These percentages are nearly identical to what they were in October

6 Direction of the Economy Now 10/8/ / / /2008 Better 25% 29% 36% 25% 8% Worse Same Cynicism about the Government and the Direction of the Country Two in three Americans (66%) continue to think the country is off on the wrong track, while just over a quarter (27%) think it is headed in the right direction. Optimism on this measure has slid significantly from what it was two years ago, but is much higher than it was in October Direction of the Country Now 10/8/ / / /2008 Right direction 27% 29% 39% 34% 7% Wrong track And Americans show considerable skepticism about the federal government s ability to do the right thing. 73% of Americans say they trust the government to do what is right only some of the time. This percentage is identical to what it was a year ago, and even higher than it was right before the 2010 midterm elections. How Often Can You Trust the Government to Do What is Right? Total 11/ /2010 Almost always 3% 3% 2% Most of the time Only some of the time Moreover, three in four Americans are either dissatisfied (50%) or angry (24%) with how the federal government is working. Just 24% are either satisfied or enthusiastic, though this percentage is up slightly from December Feelings About How the Federal Government is Working Total 12/2011 9/ /2007 Enthusiastic 2% 1% 3% 1% Satisfied Dissatisfied Angry When asked, in general, if it is better to have the President and Congress from the same or different parties, more voters prefer the same party (48%), rather than divided control (37%). But these views are colored by partisanship -- which has been the case historically. Most Democrats, who control the White House, would rather have Congress and the President of the same party, while Republicans are more inclined to prefer divided control. In years when Republicans had the White House, Democrats wanted divided government. 6

7 Better to Have the President and Congress Total Reps Dems Inds From the same party 48% 41% 64% 40% From different parties Don t know Campaign Contributions The 2014 elections are on track to be the most expensive midterm elections in history, and Americans express strong opinions about money and politics in this poll. Eight in 10 think that spending by outside groups on political advertising should be limited. Majorities of all partisan stripes would like to see this type of spending restricted. Spending on Ads by Unaffiliated Groups All Reps Dems Inds Should be limited 80% 74% 85% 78% Should not be limited Along similar lines, 76% of Americans think individual contributions to political campaigns should be limited. Campaign Contributions by Individuals All Reps Dems Inds Should be limited 76% 72% 78% 76% Allow unlimited contributions This poll was conducted by telephone October 23-27, 2014 among 1,269 adults nationwide, including 1,079 registered voters. The sample size for likely voters is 624. Not all likely voters are assigned the same probability of voting. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher. For the samples of registered voters and likely voters, the error due to sampling could be plus or minus four percentage points. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. 7

8 CBS NEWS POLL 2014 Midterm Elections: Voter Dissatisfaction with the President and Washington October 23-27, 2014 Q1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? *TOTAL RESPONDENTS* Total Rep Dem Ind Oct14a Approve Disapprove Don't know/no answer Q2. Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Oct14d Right direction Wrong track Don't know/no answer Q3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling foreign policy? Oct14a Approve Disapprove Don't know/no answer Q4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy? Approve Disapprove Don't know/no answer Q5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the threat of terrorism? Approve Disapprove Don't know/no answer Q6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the situation with ISIS militants in Iraq and Syria? Approve Disapprove Don't know/no answer Q7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the threat of the Ebola virus? Approve Disapprove Don't know/no answer

9 Q8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? *TOTAL RESPONDENTS* Total Rep Dem Ind Oct14a Approve Disapprove Don't know/no answer Q9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job? Approve Disapprove Don't know/no answer Q10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job? Approve Disapprove Don't know/no answer Q11. Which best describes your feelings about the way the federal government is working: enthusiastic, or satisfied but not enthusiastic, or dissatisfied but not angry, or angry? Dec11b Enthusiastic Satisfied not enthusiastic Dissatisfied not angry Angry Don't know/no answer Q12. How would you rate the condition of the national economy these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad or very bad? Oct14a Very good Fairly good Fairly bad Very bad Don't know/no answer 3 * Q13. Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Better Worse Same Don't know/no answer

10 Q17. How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? *TOTAL RESPONDENTS* Total Rep Dem Ind Nov13c Just about always Most of the time Only some of the time Never (Vol.) Don't know/no answer 2 * Q18. How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2014 election campaign a lot, some, not much or no attention so far? * REGISTERED VOTERS * Total Rep Dem Ind Oct14a A lot Some Not much No attention Don't know/no answer 1 * 1 1 * Q20. If the 2014 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the (Republican) candidate or the (Democratic) candidate in your district?/ In the election for U.S. House of Representatives, did you vote for the (Republican) candidate or the (Democratic) candidate in your district?) **** LIKELY VOTERS **** Republican Democratic Other 2 * Won't vote 1 * * 1 1 Depends Don't know/no answer Q20 & Q21 If the 2014 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the (Republican) candidate or the (Democratic) candidate in your district?/ In the election for U.S. House of Representatives, did you vote for the (Republican) candidate or the (Democratic) candidate in your district?) (IF DEPENDS/DON T KNOW/NO ANSWER) Well as of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or more toward the Democratic candidate? * LIKELY VOTERS WITH LEANERS * Republican Democrat Other 2 * Won't Vote 1 * Depends 2 * Don't know/no answer 2 * 1 5 3

11 Q22. Compared to previous Congressional elections, this year are you more enthusiastic about voting than usual, or less enthusiastic? * REGISTERED VOTERS * Total Rep Dem Ind Oct14a More enthusiastic Less enthusiastic Same (Vol.) Don't know/no answer Q23. What's the main reason you're supporting your candidate: 1. (His or her personal qualities), or 2. (His or her stands on the issues), or 3. (Because he or she is a [Republican/Democrat])? REGISTERED VOTERS VOTING EITHER DEMOCRATIC OR REPUBLICAN IN THE 2014 VOTE FOR CONGRESS Total Voting Rep Voting Dem % % % His or her personal qualities His or her stands on the issues Because he or she is a (Republican/Democrat) Don't know/no answer Q24. Do you think most members of Congress have done a good enough job to deserve re-election, or do you think it's time to give new people a chance? * REGISTERED VOTERS * Total Rep Dem Ind Sep14b Deserve re-election Time for new people Depends on candidates (Vol.) Don't know/no answer Q25. Do you think the representative in Congress from your district has performed his or her job well enough to deserve re-election, or do you think it's time to give a new person a chance? Deserve re-election Time for new people Depends on candidates (Vol.) Don't know/no answer Q26. Which (will matter/mattered) more to you when you (vote this November/voted) -- your state's local issues or national issues? Sep06a State's local issues National issues Both (Vol.) Don't know/no answer 1 * 1 2 1

12 Q27. Which ONE of the following issues (will be/was) MOST important in deciding your vote for Congress (this November)? * REGISTERED VOTERS * Total Rep Dem Ind Oct14a The Economy Health care Terrorism Immigration Federal budget deficit International conflicts Something else (Vol.) Don't know/no answer Q29. Regardless of how you (intend to vote in November/voted), who do you expect to win control of the U.S. Senate in the election this year -- the (Democrats) or the (Republicans)? * REGISTERED VOTERS * Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Democrats Republicans Don't know/no answer Q30. Do you think of your vote for Congress this fall as a vote (for) Barack Obama, a vote (against) Barack Obama, or don't you think of your vote this fall as being about Barack Obama? Vote for Vote against Not about Barack Obama Don't know/no answer Q31. Do you think it is better for the country to have a president who comes from (the same political party that controls Congress) or do you think it is better to have a president from (one political party and Congress controlled by another)? Jul13b Better when same party Better when different party Don't know/no answer Q32. Thinking about this November s elections for Congress, overall, would you say you are very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all about voting? Oct14a Very enthusiastic Somewhat enthusiastic Not too enthusiastic Not enthusiastic at all Don't know/no answer

13 Q33. Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the (Republican Party) or the (Democratic Party) is more likely to do a better job handling immigration issues? * REGISTERED VOTERS * Total Rep Dem Ind Sep14b Republican Party Democratic Party Both (Vol.) * Neither (Vol.) Don't know/no answer Q34. Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the (Republican Party) or the (Democratic Party) is more likely to do a better job on the economy? Oct14a Republican Party Democratic Party Both (Vol.) 1 * 1 2 * Neither (Vol.) Don't know/no answer Q35. Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the (Republican Party) or the (Democratic Party) is more likely to do a better job on U.S. foreign policy? Republican Party Democratic Party Both (Vol.) 1 * Neither (Vol.) Don't know/no answer Q36. Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the (Republican Party) or the (Democratic Party) is more likely to do a better job dealing with terrorism? Republican Party Democratic Party Both (Vol.) 3 * Neither (Vol.) Don't know/no answer Q37. Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the (Republican Party) or the (Democratic Party) is more likely to do a better job on health care? Sep14b Republican Party Democratic Party Both (Vol.) * * 1 * * Neither (Vol.) Don't know/no answer

14 Q38. Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the (Republican Party) or the (Democratic Party) cares more about the needs and problems of people like yourself? * REGISTERED VOTERS * Total Rep Dem Ind Oct14a Republican Party Democratic Party Both (Vol.) Neither (Vol.) Don't know/no answer Q40. Would you agree or disagree with the following statement? It makes no real difference which party controls Congress--things go on just as they did before. May14c Agree Disagree Don't know/no answer Q41. Which one of the following two positions on campaign financing do you favor more: (limiting the amount of money individuals can contribute to political campaigns), or (allowing individuals to contribute as much money to political campaigns as they'd like)? *TOTAL RESPONDENTS* May14c Limiting Allowing Don't know/no answer Q42. Currently, groups not affiliated with a candidate are able to spend unlimited amounts of money on advertisements during a political campaign. Do you think this kind of spending should (be limited by law), or should it (remain unlimited)? Should be limited Should remain unlimited Don't know/no answer Q44. As you may know, the federal minimum wage is currently $7.25 an hour. Do you favor or oppose raising the minimum wage to $10.10? Sep14b Favor Oppose Don't know/no answer Q45. Which of these comes closest to your view? 1. Abortion should be generally available to those who want it. 2. Abortion should be available but under stricter limits than it is now. 3. Abortion should not be permitted. Jul14c Generally available Available but limits Should not be permitted Don't know/no answer

15 Q46. From what you've heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of the health care law that was enacted in 2010? (IF APPROVE, ASK:) Do you strongly approve or somewhat approve? (IF DISAPPROVE, ASK:) Do you somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove? * TOTAL RESPONDENTS* Total Rep Dem Ind Sep14b Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/no answer Unweighted Total Respondents 1,269 Weighted Total Republicans Total Democrats Total Independents Total Registered Voters 1,079 1,006 Registered Republicans Registered Democrats Registered Independents Total Likely Voters 624

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