Glendening Job Approval Rating

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1 Glendening Job Approval Rating Rating 10/02 9/02 7/02 1/02 1/01 2/00 10/98 10/98 9/98 % % % % % % % % % Approve Disapprove Not sure The governor s approval rating remains negative. The nine-point net negative of September has grown slightly to 11 points, and now a near majority disapprove of Glendening s job performance. Whites disapprove of the Governor by a 55% to 31% margin while African-Americans strongly approve by 60% to 17%. Women are slightly less unfavorable (42%) than are men (53%). The Governor s regional strengths and weaknesses are obvious, with Baltimore County the most negative of the major jurisdictions (58%), and Prince Georges the most positive (53%). Undecided voters in the Gubernatorial race tend to mildly approve of Glendening s performance by 35% to 22%, in contrast to voters at large. Q 2. Generally, do you approve or disapprove of the way Parris Glendening is handling his job as Governor of Maryland?

2 Favorability and Recognition Ratings Kathleen Kennedy Townsend Favorable Unfavorable Net Favorable Recognition % % + % Hard % Soft % Townsend 10/ / / / / Townsend s profile continues to slide. Since September her net favorable has declined by one-third, from +12% to +8%. At the same time, Townsend has actually increased her favorables among Democrats from 65% in September to 68% today. Likewise, among African-Americans, her favorable rating has moved from 82% to 89%. Gubernatorial-undecided voters have a much more benevolent view compared to others, giving Townsend a two-to-one favorable rating (50% to 26%). Townsend is predictably strong in her three-jurisdiction base (Montgomery, Prince George s, Baltimore City), with a positive favorability rating of 67% to 26%. Outside of those three jurisdictions the numbers are much different. Townsend is only viewed favorably by 38% and unfavorably by 54% in the rest of the state. Q 6. Now I am going to read you the names of several people. For each one, please tell me if you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression. If you don t recognize the name, don t be afraid to say so.

3 Ehrlich 2002 General Election Tracking Favorability and Recognition Ratings Bob Ehrlich Favorable Unfavorable Net Favorable Recognition % % + % Hard % Soft % 10/ / / / / Ehrlich continues to become better known, having increased his hard recognition by eight points in the last month. His favorables have climbed above 50% for the first time, while his negatives have increased at a slightly faster pace. Since September, Ehrlich has firmed up his base among Republicans, moving from 77% favorable to 83%. Likewise, the percentage of conservatives rating him positively has increased from 65% to 73%. The key moderate voter group gives Ehrlich a two-to-one positive rating (53% to 27%), and registered Independents are only slightly less favorable at 46% to 37%. Ehrlich has a rock solid fan club in Baltimore County (63% favorable to 26% unfavorable), and is well liked in the suburban counties of Anne Arundel and Howard (58% to 25%). All across the state s rural counties, Ehrlich s favorable rating rises to the mid 60 s. Q 6. Now I am going to read you the names of several people. For each one, please tell me if you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression. If you don t recognize the name, don t be afraid to say so.

4 Gubernatorial Horse Race (prior to pushing leaners) 10/02 9/02 7/02 1/02 1/01 % % % % % Ehrlich Townsend Lancaster...*...NA...NA... NA...NA *=less than one percent Undecided Townsend Margin Though the race remains extremely close, Ehrlich has opened up a 4-point lead, which now exceeds the survey s margin of error. There is a significant gender gap. Ehrlich leads among men 52% to 36%. Townsend wins women 48% to 40%. Garnering less than a majority of women is a danger sign for Townsend, however. Ehrlich commands 85% of his own party while Townsend is holding only 60% of hers. The racial gulf has widened since September. Ehrlich s 15-point margin over Townsend among Whites has grown to 22 points (55% to 33%). Meanwhile, Townsend has only strengthened her support among the African-American community (80% to 6%). Among other major demographic subgroups, Townsend wins only the age group (46% to 43%) and voters with post-graduate education (53% to 37%). The Big 3 Democratic jurisdictions (Montgomery, Prince George s, Baltimore City) account for 41% of the statewide vote, and Townsend wins them with 62%. Ehrlich wins the rest of the state with 59% of the vote. If this formula does not change, it gives the edge to Ehrlich. Q 7. If the general election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were (rotate) [(Bob Ehrlich and Michael Steele the Republicans), or (Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and Charles Larson the Democrats)], for whom would you vote? (Note: Lieutenant governor candidates not included prior to 9/02.) (continued)

5 One message is crystal clear for Townsend: She needs to boost voter turnout, especially in the Big Democratic 3. Among infrequent general election voters, she holds a 5 point margin over Ehrlich. Confirming Ehrlich s more intensely-held support, he extends his margin to 7 points among the most likely voter.

6 2002 Gubernatorial Tracking Gubernatorial Horse Race (including leaners) 10/02 9/02 Support Lean Comb Support Lean Comb % % % % % % Townsend Ehrlich Lancaster...* *... NA...NA... NA Undecided Underling the closeness of this race, undecided voters break evenly toward both candidates. When including leaners, Ehrlich s support approaches a majority. Most (85%) of the undecideds insist they will definitely vote, even if they have not yet made up their mind how they will vote in the Gubernatorial race. Q 7. Q 8. If the general election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were (rotate) [(Bob Ehrlich and Michael Steele the Republicans), or (Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and Charles Larson the Democrats)], for whom would you vote? Well, do you lean towards one of the candidates? (Read and rotate): [Ehrlich or Townsend]?

7 2002 Elections (CANDIDATE STRENGTH OF SUPPORT) Ehrlich 10/02 9/02 7/02 % % % Mind made up Could be persuaded Not sure Townsend Mind made up Could be persuaded Not sure Since September, both candidates have solidified their base, each gaining 8 percentage points of firm support. Ehrlich continues to enjoy an edge in this important measure of voter intensity, which could come into play in a low-turnout election. Younger voters and those with moderate levels of education remain more likely to change their minds, compared to other voters. Montgomery County voters are less persuaded than those in other jurisdictions for either candidate, and Townsend s Anne Arundel/Howard support is shaky. If there is a modest piece of good news for Townsend, it appears that the voters who have made up their minds in the last week are tilting slightly towards her (53% to 47%). Q 9. When it comes to your support of (Ehrlich/Townsend), would you say you have firmly made up your mind, or could you be persuaded to vote for somebody else?

8 Ehrlich too conservative for MD Bob Ehrlich is too conservative for Maryland General Election Tracking Candidate Characteristics Agree Disagree Not sure % % % 10/ / / Townsend not capable enough to be Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is not capable enough to handle the job of Governor. 10/ / / Time for change from Democrats The Democrats have been running the state for too long. It s time for a change. 9/ / Time for change from Glendening (new wording October 2002) Kathleen Kennedy Townsend would just continue the policies of the Glendening administration. It s time for a change. 10/ (continued) Q 15. I would like to read you several statements about the upcoming elections. You might agree with some and disagree with others. Please just tell me whether you agree or disagree.

9 Despite repeated attempts to paint Ehrlich as out of the mainstream, Townsend has not significantly changed the number of people who believe he is too conservative for Maryland. Only one-third (32%) agree with this idea, a number that is statistically unchanged since September. Among the critically important swing group, moderates, who account for 40% of the electorate, only one in four (27%) agree that Ehrlich is too conservative. More than one-third of Marylanders (37%) have doubts about Townsend s ability to handle the job, a number that has crept up slightly in recent months. Those concerns reach a majority in Baltimore County (52%) and among conservatives (56%). There is approximately a 10-point gender gap on the matter of Townsend s capability, with 43% of men and only 32% of women feeling she is incapable. Townsend s abilities come under greater doubt in the Baltimore area (42%) than in the Washington suburbs (27%). While there was no overwhelming mandate for partisan change measured in the surveys earlier this year (about four voters in ten), Parris Glendening, on the other hand, appears to be much more of a serious stumbling block for Townsend s candidacy. A majority think it is time for a change from Glendening, and that Townsend is just more of the same. Most damaging to her candidacy, 37% of Democrats feel this way. The only demographic groups where a majority disagree with this proposition are African- Americans (54%) and voters with post-graduate degrees (51%).

10 Military Action Against Iraq 10/02 9/02 % % Favor Oppose Not sure There has been a significant shift on this issue since September. Now, a plurality of Marylanders oppose military action in Iraq a 13 point swing. There is a deep partisan divide on Iraq, with 61% of Republicans supporting action, and 55% of Democrats opposing it. African-Americans are overwhelmingly opposed to an Iraqi military action (71% to 13%). Q 21. Do you favor or oppose the President s proposal to take military action against Iraq?

11 Prevent Future Snipers 10/02 % Stricter gun control Carry weapons Not sure/depends The idea of arming citizens to help prevent future sniper attacks has very little potency in Maryland. Only one voter in five would allow more citizens to carry weapons. Even self-described conservatives favor stricter gun control by a 38% to 30% margin. Undecided and persuadable voters in the Gubernatorial race favor stricter gun control by 57% to 12%. Among Ehrlich s supporters, carrying weapons is narrowly supported 35% to 32%. Montgomery County voters, most directly affected by the sniper crisis, are more likely to support stricter gun control measures (70%) than any jurisdiction in the state. Q 21a. I would like to ask you about the snipers who terrorized the area for several weeks. To help prevent a problem like this in the future, would it be better to have stricter gun control laws, or to allow more law abiding citizens to carry weapons?

12 Impact of Snipers 10/02 % Normal Feeling Impact Not sure... 4 Nearly three-quarters of the state s electorate say their lives have returned to normal in the wake of the sniper attacks. Men are feeling much more secure than are women with 80% of men and 64% of women saying things have returned to normal. Though the shootings were focused in the Washington area, 22% of voters in Greater Baltimore continue to feel impacted, compared to 28% in the Washington suburbs. More than one-third (35%) of African Americans are feeling impacted compared to only one-fifth (22%) of whites. Nearly a third of both Montgomery and Prince George s Counties claim to still be feeling an impact from the snipers. Q 21b. Overall, do you think things have returned to normal in your own life, or are you still feeling the impact of the snipers?

13 Congressional District 2 Horse Race (including leaners) 10/02 9/02 Support Lean CombSupport Lean Comb % % % % % % Bentley Ruppersberger Undecided Dutch Ruppersberger has opened up a lead over Helen Bentley in the closely-watched 2 nd Congressional District race. When voters who are still largely undecided but lean toward a candidate are included, Ruppersberger now leads 49% to 40%. In the month since our last poll, the race has turned from a statistical dead heat into a contest that now appears to be Ruppersberger s to lose with just one week to go. A total of 478 likely voters in the 2 nd District were interviewed by telephone October 27-29, The poll carries a maximum possible margin of sampling error of ±5.0% at a 95% confidence level. As in the gubernatorial race, Republicans are more loyal to their party s nominee. Bentley enjoys the support of 75% of registered Republicans, while Ruppersberger draws just 60% of Democrats. But with a district that is two-thirds Democratic in registration, that level of support within his party still allows Ruppersberger a lead. (continued) Q 10. In the race for U.S. Congress, if the candidates were Helen Bentley the Republican, and Dutch Ruppersberger the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Q 11. Well, do you lean towards one of the candidates, Bentley or Ruppersberger?

14 Including voters who lean toward a candidate, Ruppersberger has a larger lead among women (50% to 37%) than among men (47% to 44%), and the poll indicates that women who are making up their mind late may be breaking toward the Democrat. Ruppersberger is leading handily among African-Americans (77% to 10%), and is breaking even among Whites (45% to 43%). Bentley leads convincingly in Harford (51% to 35%), the two candidates are even in Anne Arundel (Ruppersberger 43%, Bentley 41%), and the Democrat is winning Baltimore City by a wide margin (59% to 27%). But the jurisdiction which accounts for two-thirds of the district s voters, Baltimore County, currently goes to Ruppersberger (50% to 41%). Bentley has a large lead among self-described conservatives (64% to 29%), who account for one-third of the district, but Ruppersberger is taking moderates (48% to 37%) and liberals (70% to 15%). The two candidates have equally committed bases of support. Four out of five supporters for each candidate say they have firmly made up their minds. Among undecided and persuadable voters in the 2 nd District the economy is the big issue, with 55% of those voters saying they would rather see their Member of Congress focus on the economy, compared to 17% who would choose national security. By two-to-one (31% to 15%), undecided and persuadable voters who care most about national security say Bentley would do a better job handling that priority, while the two candidates are evenly rated on the economy (24% Bentley, 23% Ruppersberger) among those who worry most about it. In both cases, one-half could not say which candidate would do a better job, or think they would handle these issues equally well. In a somewhat troubling sign for Bentley, 49% of the truly undecided voters in this Congressional race think it would be better to elect Democrats to Congress for the sake of checks and balances, compared to only 14% who want to send Republicans to Washington to help President Bush fight the war on terrorism. Ruppersberger has a modestly positive personal favorability rating of 52% favorable to 33% unfavorable, yielding a net favorability of +19%. Including those who have heard of him but have no opinion, Ruppersberger s soft recognition is a healthy 95% in the district. His greatest strengths lie with Democrats (62%), liberals (68%), African-Americans (69%), voters with post-graduate education (70%), and Baltimore County voters (57%). Bentley appears to be much more of a lightning rod in the district, with a 44% favorable to 41% unfavorable rating. Her hard recognition of 85% and soft of 96% equal Ruppersberger s and reflect the high-profile nature of both nominees. Bentley s favorability rarely rises above 50%, except among Republicans (73%) and conservatives (64%). She is viewed particularly negatively by African-Americans (69%), liberals (68%), and voters with post-graduate education (60%).

15 Congressional District 8 Horse Race (including leaners) 10/02 9/02 Support Lean CombSupport Lean Comb % % % % % % Van Hollen Morella Undecided One week before the election, this race remains one of the closest in the nation, within the margin of error and too close to call. However, the survey indicates that Morella has gained ground with her aggressive campaign driving up Van Hollen s unfavorable ratings. Q 12. In the race for U.S. Congress, if the candidates were Connie Morella the Republican, and Chris Van Hollen the Democrat, for whom would you vote? Q 13. Well, do you lean towards one of the candidates, Morella or Van Hollen? (continued)

16 POPULARITY Connie Morella continues to enjoy very strong approval ratings across all groups in the district with a 76% favorable rating versus an 18% unfavorable rating (net favorability = 58 %, down slightly from 61% last month. She continues to show strong favorable ratings even among Van Hollen voters and self-identified liberals. Van Hollen voters approve 56% to 37% compared to 58% to 30% last time. Self-identified liberals give her a 66% favorable to 29% favorable compared to 68% to 21% last month. Her unfavorable ratings did increase among African Americans 58% favorable to 23% unfavorable compared to 70% to 14% one month ago. While Chris Van Hollen is still viewed positively, his unfavorable ratings have increased significantly. His favorable rating remains identical to the last poll at 56% while his unfavorable rating has increased from 11% to 26% for a net favorable of 30% compared to 45% one month ago. Not surprisingly, his unfavorable ratings have skyrocketed among Republican voters from 21% a month ago to 57% today. He has also lost ground among women where he has seen his unfavorable ratings climb from 7% to 23%. He has also lost some ground among African Americans: His favorable numbers are down 9 points and the number of African American voters who say they have no opinion of him has more than doubled from 14% to 32%. Seniors are also viewing him more negatively than a month ago. Last month, seniors gave him a 51% favorable to 9% unfavorable rating. Today, his favorable ratings remain at 50%, but his unfavorable ratings have more than tripled to 31%. HORSERACE In the last survey Van Hollen had a slight lead in this extremely tight race. Those roles are reversed this time with Morella opening up a slight 3 point lead 47% to 44% (leaners included) with 9 percent undecided. Van Hollen does much better among infrequent voters. He holds a 14-point margin among this group, underscoring the critical importance of enhanced voter turnout for the Democratic nominee. Morella has seen her support increase in the following groups since the last survey: Morella 9/02 10/02 Democrats 23% 26% Republicans 81% 88% Independents 50% 58% African Americans 17% 32% Women 39% 45% <34 29% 55% % 49% Liberals 12% 19% Some College 48% 59% Post Grad 29% 37% About the same margin of both Morella and Van Hollen voters indicate that they could be persuaded (13% and 14% respectively) to vote for somebody else so the last week of this campaign will be crucial for both camps.

17 Despite the numbers trending toward Morella, voters in the district still indicate that they would overwhelmingly like to see Democrats in control of Congress (67%). Undecided voters believe it is more important for their member of Congress to focus on the economy versus national security by a 69% to 31% margin. Morella fares better than Van Hollen on both of these issues among this voter pool. However, the majority of these voters do not have a preference or believe that both would handle them equally. Among those who expressed an opinion, 36% believe Morella would handle national security issues better than Van Hollen (6%) and 28% believe she would do a better job on the economic front compared to Van Hollen s 19%.

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