THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll

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1 THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco, CA (415) FAX: (415) Release #2514 Release Date: Thursday, October 8, 2015 POLITICAL OUTSIDERS TRUMP, CARSON AND FIORINA NOW LEAD THE CROWDED FIELD OF GOP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES IN CALIFORNIA. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN ) Three political outsiders with no prior experience in political office are now leading in California among Republicans likely to vote in the state's June 2016 presidential primary. Businessman Donald Trump, at 17%, and physician Ben Carson, at 15%, and businesswoman Carly Fiorina, at 13%, are besting the crowded field of current and former U.S. Senators and Governors, who collectively receive 42% of the vote. Another 13% are undecided. The poll shows that support for the three "political outsider" candidates is greater among the strongly conservative wing of the Republican Party and among voters identifying with the Tea Party. Despite the fact that Trump has been leading in most nationwide polls for more than two months, relatively few likely Republican voters in this state (28%) think he will eventually become their party's standard-bearer. Also, when California Republicans are asked what their personal reaction would be should the billionaire businessman win the GOP nomination, greater than four in ten (44%) say they would be either upset or dissatisfied, and 37% are not confident that Trump would be able to defeat the eventual Democratic Party's nominee. These are the findings of the latest statewide Field Poll conducted among California Republicans likely to vote in this state's June 2016 presidential primary. Shifting voter preferences in the crowded Republican presidential field The voting preferences of California's likely GOP electorate now favor three political outsiders who have no previous experience in elective office. Trump is currently the choice of 17% of this state's Republicans, while 15% prefer Carson and 13% favor Fiorina. The GOP frontrunners in the current Field Poll differ dramatically from two previous polls earlier this year. One of the leaders in the earlier Field Polls, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, has since dropped his bid for the presidency, while support for another of the early leaders, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, has been steadily declining since the start of the year. Field Research Corporation is an Equal Opportunity Employer

2 Thursday, October 8, 2015 Page 2 Table 1 Trend of preferences in the 2016 California Republican primary for President October 2015 May 2015 February 2015 Donald Trump 17% N/A N/A Ben Carson 15 5% 8% Carly Fiorina 13 3 N/A Marco Rubio Jeb Bush Ted Cruz Rand Paul Mike Huckabee Chris Christie John Kasich 2 1 N/A Lindsay Graham 1 1 N/A George Pataki 1 N/A N/A Rick Santorum 1 N/A N/A Bobby Jindal * 1 1 Others Undecided N/A: Not measured. Note: Scott Walker received 18% support in February and 10% in May, while Rick Perry was the choice of 4% in February and less than ½ of 1% in May. Both have since dropped out of the race. "Political outsider" candidates have greater appeal to strong conservatives and GOP voters identifying with the Tea Party The outsider candidacies of Trump, Carson or Fiorina have greater appeal to the party's strong conservatives and those identifying with the Tea Party than do the traditional candidates. For example, 53% of likely Republican primary voters who are strongly conservative in politics are now supporting one of the political outsiders, while 34% are backing more traditional GOP candidates. Among Republican voters who are not strongly conservative in politics, the traditional candidates are preferred 48% to 39%. Similarly, among likely voters who identify with the Tea Party, 51% are backing a political outsider candidate versus 37% who favor a more traditional candidate. The reverse is true among Republican voters not identifying with the Tea Party, with 46% of these voters backing a more traditional candidate and 37% supporting one of the political outsiders.

3 Thursday, October 8, 2015 Page 3 Table 2 Comparing support for the three "political outsider" candidates to those supporting more traditional Republican candidates with regard to voters' political ideology and identification with the Tea Party A "political outsider" candidate A more traditional candidate Undecided Total likely GOP voters 45% Political ideology Strongly conservative 53% All others 39% Tea Party identification A lot/some 51% Not at all 37% Note: In this and succeeding tables subgroup findings based on relatively small sample sizes. Most California Republicans do not think Trump will become the GOP presidential nominee Despite the fact that Trump has been the clear leader in most polls of GOP voters across the country for over two months, when California Republicans are asked whether they think Trump will eventually become their party's presidential nominee, only 28% think he will be. Another 58% do not, while 14% have no opinion. There are big differences in perceptions about this depending on whether or not a voter is currently backing Trump. Among Trump supporters 76% believe he will be the GOP nominee, while just 5% do not. By contrast, only one in five Republican voters who are supporting other candidates believe the billionaire businessman will win their party's nomination. Table 3 Do California Republicans think Donald Trump will be the Republican Party's nominee for President in 2016? Yes No No opinion Total likely GOP voters 28% Current voting preference for GOP nomination Trump supporter 76% 5 19 Supporting others 20% Undecided 10% Note: In this and succeeding tables subgroup findings based on relatively small sample sizes.

4 Thursday, October 8, 2015 Page 4 Many California Republicans would be dissatisfied if Trump were to become the GOP nominee Many California Republicans, especially those not currently supporting Trump's candidacy, say they would be either dissatisfied or upset if he were to win the Republican presidential nomination. Greater than four in ten likely GOP primary voters (44%) say this, while 21% would be enthusiastic about Trump as their party's standard bearer, and 31% who would be satisfied, but not enthusiastic. Enthusiasm for Trump as the GOP standard-bearer falls off dramatically among Republicans not currently backing his candidacy. For example, while 59% of Trump supporters say they would be enthusiastic about Trump should he win the GOP nomination, just 15% of those backing other candidates feel this way. Table 4 GOP voter enthusiasm if Trump were to become the Republican Party's presidential nominee in 2016 Satisfied but not Enthusiastic enthusiastic Dissatisfied Upset No opinion Total likely GOP voters 21% Current voting preference for GOP nomination Trump supporter 59% 38 3 Supporting others 15% Undecided 4% More than one in three likely GOP voters not confident that Trump can defeat the eventual Democratic Party nominee A relatively large proportion of Californians likely to vote in the Republican primary (37%) say they would not be confident that Trump would be able to defeat the Democratic Party nominee should he win the nomination. This is especially true among voters currently supporting Republicans other candidates, 46% of whom lack confidence in Trump's ability to win the fall general election.

5 Thursday, October 8, 2015 Page 5 Table 5 How confident are you that Trump will defeat the Democratic Party nominee in November if he became the Republican Party's presidential nominee (among likely voters in California's June 2016 GOP primary for president) Very confident Somewhat confident Not confident Depends/ No opinion Total likely GOP voters 26% Current voting preference for GOP nomination Trump supporter 59% Supporting others 20% Undecided 16% * Less than ½ of 1% 30

6 Thursday, October 8, 2015 Page 6 Methodological Details Information About The Survey The findings come from a Field Poll completed September 17-October 4, 2015 among 1,002 registered voters in California, of whom 214 are consider likely to vote in next year's June Republican presidential primary election. Interviews were administered by telephone using live interviewers in English and Spanish. Individual voters were sampled at random from listings derived from the statewide voter registration rolls. Once a voter's name and telephone number had been selected, interviews were attempted with voters on their landline or cell phone depending on the source of the listing from the voter file and the preference of the voter. In this survey 787 of the interviews were completed with voters on their cell phones, while 215 were completed on a landline or other phone. Up to six attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. After the completion of interviewing, the sample was weighted to align it to the proper distribution of voters by race/ethnicity and other demographic, geographic and party registration characteristics of the state's registered voter population. Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size and the percentage distributions being examined. The maximum sampling error for results from the Republican primary voter sample in this report is +/- 7.0 percentage points. These estimates are based on survey findings in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., results at or near 50%). Percentages at or near either end of the tail of the distributions (i.e., results closer to 10% or 90%) have somewhat smaller margins of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveys of public opinion besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of this survey sought to minimize these other possible errors. The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field. The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public opinion. The Field Poll receives financial support from leading California newspapers and television stations, who purchase the rights of first release to Field Poll reports in their primary viewer or readership markets. The Poll also receives funding from the University of California and California State University systems, who receive the data files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary research purposes, as well as from foundations, non-profit organizations, and others as part of the Poll's policy research sponsor program. Questions Asked I am going to read the names of some candidates who are running for the Republican nomination for President next year. If the June Republican primary for President in California were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were (NAMES OF ALL REPUBLICANS READ IN RANDOM ORDER)? (SEE RELEASE FOR NAMES READ) Do you think Donald Trump will be the Republican Party's nominee for President next year? How would you feel if Donald Trump were the 2016 Republican Party's presidential election nominee enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not upset, or upset? If Donald Trump does become the Republican Party's nominee for President in 2016, how confident are you that Trump will be able to defeat the Democratic Party nominee in the November general election very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident or not at all confident?

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