Harnessing Collective Intelligence

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1 Antti Villberg Semantum Oy TM Harnessing Collective Intelligence All rights reserved

2 Questions for decision makers What is the current state of affairs? How are things going to develop? What would happen if you chose an action? How do you want things to develop? Usually we rely on intuition All rights reserved 2

3 The answers are complicated The global village - Global competition, rapid consumer movement Business is getting more complex - Complex supply chains and automation Too much information All rights reserved 3

4 Tools for taking control Gather and present the data Discover the causes and effects Analyse the right actions Modelling, simulation, optimisation All rights reserved 4

5 Engineering examples Physical processes - E.g. fluid flow in industrial plants Virtual prototyping e.g. cars, airplanes - E.g. crash tests, fuel efficiency Cannot be done with pen and paper Too costly to do in practice All rights reserved 5

6 Business processes System dynamics at VTT - Product development processes (Nokia) - Maintenance processes - Consumer web store business strategy Write out mental models and see how they behave All rights reserved 6

7 All rights reserved Lähde: John D. Sterman: Business Dynamics Systems Thinking and Modeling 7 for a Complex World

8 Benefits of modelling Compare scenarios - What if - analysis Discover cycles and turning points - Business possibilities are there Learn the process by modelling it - And teach it to others All rights reserved 8

9 All rights reserved 9

10 Simantics platform Integrate data from different sources Apply various analysis tools Manage models and analyse results Visual modelling and experimenting Open source core All rights reserved 10

11 Industrial effort Development at VTT since 2005 Major industrial simulators involved Managed by industrial THTH association VTT Fortum Pöyry Metso Automation Foster Wheeler Energia DAMO Tec All rights reserved 11

12 Bringing it to the people Expose modelling technology through social media - Let communities create reusable model libraries - Configure cases quickly and publish them in the web - Manage and play model based games online TM Harnessing Collective Intelligence All rights reserved 12

13 Simupedia Software as a Service Model library Collaboration tools Online analysis Online games Public and private communities All rights reserved 13

14 A product development case A System Dynamic model for product development is created by experts A model based decision making game is set up The game is played online and customers are invited to participate in different roles (decision makers, markets, etc.) All rights reserved 14

15 A political case A think tank receives an assignment to create a proposal for basic income Think tank team creates a System Dynamic model with various scenarios and publishes it online for review The model is revised by active grassroots organizations and institutional players Policy choices can be quantifiably compared by politicians, government officials and labor unions All rights reserved 15

16 Conclusions System dynamics is a proven method to analyse business processes Powerful and public tools for model creation and collaborative use are being developed Social media technology and crowdsourcing enable the creation of model libraries which can be used for building specific models for public and private decision making All rights reserved 16

17 Q? Later questions can be addressed to - System Dynamics: Jean-Peter Ylén at VTT Simantics: Tommi Karhela at VTT Simupedia: Antti Villberg at Semantum All rights reserved 17

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