Is Truck Queuing Productive? Study of truck & shovel operations productivity using simulation platform MineDES

Transcription

1 Is Truck Queuing Productive? Study of truck & shovel operations productivity using simulation platform MineDES Dmitry Kostyuk Specialist Scientist, Group Resource and Business Optimisation 25 November 2014

2 Contents Simulation Modeling in Mine Planning Truck and shovel operations simulation platform MineDES Overview Advantages Benchmarking and validation Case Study Conclusions Dmitry Kostyuk, Specialist Scientist, Group Resource and Business Optimisation, 25 November 2014 Slide 2

3 Mine Planning Challenges Mines will continue to increase in depth, scale and complexity. There is a strong demand for mine planners to: Produce achievable, optimized plans for these mines Appropriately size equipment fleets Design efficient, effective mine access systems Accurately estimate mining system productivity Getting it wrong can negatively impact project NPV. Dmitry Kostyuk, Specialist Scientist, Group Resource and Business Optimisation, 25 November 2014 Slide 3

4 Conventional Mine Planning Analytical methods formula-based approach High-level of abstraction BIG PICTURE point of view Normally doesn t account for the impact on overall mining system productivity such factors as equipment interactions, parameters variability, randomness, uncertainty etc Fails to describe systems with dynamic behavior featuring: non-linear behavior non-intuitive influences between variables time and causal dependencies uncertainty, randomness and large number of parameters Dmitry Kostyuk, Specialist Scientist, Group Resource and Business Optimisation, 25 November 2014 Slide 4

5 Mine Planning using Simulation Modeling Simulation Modeling Method of solving problems that can t be calculated analytically Cheap and risk free experiments ( what if? studies) Efficient for analyzing systems with dynamic behavior Dmitry Kostyuk, Specialist Scientist, Group Resource and Business Optimisation, 25 November 2014 Slide 5

6 Analytical Modeling vs. Simulation Modeling Queuing theory Poisson stream (independent arrivals) Single loader Arrivals: on average trucks / hour Case #1: Case #2: Loading time exponentially distributed: Loading time arbitrary distributed: 1/ mean loading time 1/ mean loading time Shovel utilization: Average waiting time: Average queue length: Shovel utilization: Average waiting time:, where is coefficient of variation of loading time. Dmitry Kostyuk, Specialist Scientist, Group Resource and Business Optimisation, 25 November 2014 Slide 6

7 Analytical Modeling vs. Simulation Modeling Queuing theory Poisson stream (independent arrivals) Multiple (K) loaders Arrivals: on average trucks / hour Case #3: Case #4: Loading time exponentially distributed: Loading time arbitrary distributed: 1/ mean loading time Shovel utilization: Average waiting time: where P!, and,!! 1/ mean loading time ANALYTICAL SOLUTION DOES NOT EXIST STARTING FROM HERE AND FOR ANY FURTHER COMPLICATION OF THE PROCESS!!! Dmitry Kostyuk, Specialist Scientist, Group Resource and Business Optimisation, 25 November 2014 Slide 7

8 Advantages of Simulation Modeling Enabling system analysis, and to find solutions where other methods fail Once appropriate level of abstraction is selected, development of a simulation model is a more straightforward process than analytical modeling less intellectual efforts, scalable, incremental and modular The structure of a simulation model naturally reflects the structure of the real system it is visual, easy to verify and communicate to other people Any state of the model is measurable and any entity, which is not below abstraction level is tractable sensitivity analysis, statistical analysis Ability to play and animate the system Simulation models are a lot more convincing than Excel spreadsheets or Power Point slides Dmitry Kostyuk, Specialist Scientist, Group Resource and Business Optimisation, 25 November 2014 Slide 8

9 Contents Simulation Modeling in Mine Planning Truck and shovel operations simulation platform MineDES Overview Advantages Benchmarking and validation Case Study Conclusions Dmitry Kostyuk, Specialist Scientist, Group Resource and Business Optimisation, 25 November 2014 Slide 9

10 MineDES - What is it? Truck & shovel operations simulation tool that can be used to estimate mining movement and processing capability in the following dimensions: productivity statistics bottleneck processes and infrastructure truck queuing statistics the impact of different crew and maintenance schedules the impact of unscheduled random equipment and road sector downtime the influence of road maintenance vehicles and light vehicles on congestion the capacity of particular pit ramps, and the whole road network, to support planned material movements. Primary design concept was to focus application on addressing strategic mine planning questions, but secondly to be applicable in the short term planning environment. Dmitry Kostyuk, Specialist Scientist, Group Resource and Business Optimisation, 25 November 2014 Slide 10

11 Dmitry Kostyuk, Specialist Scientist, Group Resource and Business Optimisation, 25 November 2014 Slide 11

12 MineDES Features Truck dynamics are calculated using full rim-pull curve data, taking into account truck payload as well as road gradient and quality A fast, purpose-built simulation engine, and the modelling of trucks as agents to ensure realistic and intelligent behavior Truck dispatch is predicated upon attempting to achieve a user-defined mining rate at each mining face Realistic and flexible modelling of traffic rules at complex intersections Modelling of payload and loading/dumping time variability Flexibility in assigning legal digging and dumping destinations to different truck sets within each truck fleet The optional application of a wide range of scheduled and unscheduled downtime for all mobile and static material processing infrastructure. Integrated 3D visualization engine Dmitry Kostyuk, Specialist Scientist, Group Resource and Business Optimisation, 25 November 2014 Slide 12

13 Advantages of truck & shovel simulator MineDES In-house software development project with more than 4 years development history. Developed from scratch and doesn t use any commercial simulation engines. Designed to address both long- and shortterm mine planning problems Intuitive, flexible and fit for purpose. Development of a simulation scenario is straightforward process, which does not require programming skills and a lot of intellectual effort. Benchmarked against other industry standard software products and tested in real operations environment Dmitry Kostyuk, Specialist Scientist, Group Resource and Business Optimisation, 25 November 2014 Slide 13

14 MineDES Benchmarking and Validation Truck dynamics model benchmarking against industry standard software Truck speed (km/h) Distance (km) MineDES TALPAC m Dmitry Kostyuk, Specialist Scientist, Group Resource and Business Optimisation, 25 November 2014 Slide 14

15 Testing against real truck data. Y (km) GPS real truck data plot: X (km) MineDES model - design view: Truck speed (km/h) Distance (km) Experiment results: Truck ground speed profile. GPS vs. MineDES Truck travel distance profile. GPS vs. MineDES Travel time (min) Dmitry Kostyuk, Specialist Scientist, Group Resource and Business Optimisation, 25 November 2014 Slide 15

16 Contents Simulation Modeling in Mine Planning Truck and shovel operations simulation platform MineDES Overview Advantages Benchmarking and validation Case Study Conclusions Dmitry Kostyuk, Specialist Scientist, Group Resource and Business Optimisation, 25 November 2014 Slide 16

17 Case Study. Optimal fleet size. Truck Loading Time Distribution Graph [sec]: Truck Payload Distribution Graph [tonnes]: Dmitry Kostyuk, Specialist Scientist, Group Resource and Business Optimisation, 25 November 2014 Slide 17

18 Case Study. Optimal fleet size. A minimum 8 trucks are required to maximize productivity. Adding more trucks to the fleet simply increases overall queuing time with no additional aggregate material movement - in fact, adding extra trucks above 8 can lead to an insignificant decrease in productivity (< 1%) due to increased traffic congestion. Dmitry Kostyuk, Specialist Scientist, Group Resource and Business Optimisation, 25 November 2014 Slide 18

19 Case Study. Optimal fleet size The simulation experiment has shown that even in a simple case where non-deterministic behaviour is quite limited and the road network is simple (point-to-point), in an optimized configuration, we should expect to see trucks queuing at shovels to a not insubstantial extent. The simple financial model shows that this queuing is protective of productivity and operational value. Dmitry Kostyuk, Specialist Scientist, Group Resource and Business Optimisation, 25 November 2014 Slide 19

20 Conclusions A new truck-shovel simulation tool called MineDES has been introduced A simulation case study was undertaken using MineDES to address the question of whether having queuing trucks could be a feature of an optimally productive mining operation. Our experiments have shown that in the case where non-deterministic factors are present in the system, typical of all real mining operations to a greater or lesser extent, then some degree of truck queuing will be observed in the most productive of configurations. Dmitry Kostyuk, Specialist Scientist, Group Resource and Business Optimisation, 25 November 2014 Slide 20

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