Latin American Research Network

Transcription

1 RESEARCH PROPOSAL For Latin American Research Network The Emergence of New Successful Export Activities in Latin America STRATEGA BDS Business Development Services March 22, 2006

2 1. Research Research Strategy Background information on Exports Methodology to pre-selected sectors Pre-selected sectors... 5 Fresh Cut Flowers... 6 Palm Hearts Broccoli Mangoes Pineapple Passion fruit juice Why pre-selected sectors are relevant to the objectives of this study? Proposed Research Methodology Data Sources, Diffusion Strategy and Timeline Sources Diffusion Strategy Timeline Budget Firm Experience and Research Team qualification Stratega s Research Team Qualifications Brief History of the Group General Information Customer Value Proposition Vision Our Principles Why We Are Different Our Business Model Experience, Accreditations and International Partnerships Our Services Services to Small and Medium-size Enterprises Strategic Planning and Business Plan Development Evaluation of Export Capacity and Development of Export Business Plans Company Project Development Financial Advisory Services and Access to Financing Technology Online Financial Information and Accounting: b.works Training Institutional Competitiveness Services Competitiveness Public Policies Sector Studies Institutional Strategic Planning for Trade Associations and Project Design Projects for Local Governments and Non-profit Organizations Our Experience Our team qualification for this research objectives Our Partners Our Consultants Annexes...48 Annex no. 1 Export Audit Methodology...48

3 1. Research 1.1 Research Strategy Background information on Exports Ecuadorian exports have grown 452% over the last 20 years, and much of the growth have favored the sector of nontraditional exports 1 which have increased from 7% of the total of exports up to 22% in the 2005, having reached its maximum of 30% in the 2001 to the ,000,000 Figure 1 Total Exports 10,000,000 8,000,000 Traditional Non Traditional Oil Exports 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000, Source: Central Bank of Ecuador, numbers in thousands of dollars. Elaboration Stratega BDS Among export sectors loosing participation are: coffee (decreased its participation from 15% in 1986 to just 1% in 2005); shrimp (from 20% in 1987 to 5% in 2005 caused mainly by the white spot syndrome which affected production in 1998) and cacao, which participation fell from 7% in 1986 to 2% in Oil exports however, have increased its share of 44% in 1986 to 59.5% in 2005, although they represented only 22% in As we can observe in the following figure, total export growth is explained mainly by increase in oil exports; nonetheless, there are some products that have grown explosively in the two previous decades. Most of the non-oil exports underwent a reduction from 1997 to 2000 caused mainly by very low oil prices, also non non-oil exports fell from million to 2,484 million in the same period, caused by a severe financial and private sector crisis, they have recovered to 3,949 million in 2005, as shown in the following figure. 1 Non traditional are defined as exports different than oil, banana, shrimp coffee, cacao, panama hats. 1

4 10,000,000 9,000,000 Figure 2 Total Exports by broad sector, in dollars Industrialized Products Others 8,000,000 Flow ers 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 Fish Tuna Wood Abaca Fibers 4,000,000 Cocoa 3,000,000 Shrimp 2,000,000 1,000, Source: Central Bank of Ecuador, numbers in thousands of dollars. Elaboration Stratega BDS Coff ee Bananas Crude Oil Figure 3 Non Oil Exports, in dollars 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 3,124,040 2,850,996 2,537,914 3,707,153 3,280,176 2,971,451 2,484,361 2,981,360 2,778,672 3,432,212 3,357,548 3,948,774 1,000,000 1,699,293 1,756,269 1,809,146 1,305, ,000 - Sum of 1990 Sum of 1991 Sum of 1992 Sum of 1993 Sum of 1994 Sum of 1995 Sum of 1996 Sum of 1997 Sum of 1998 Sum of 1999 Sum of 2000 Sum of 2001 Sum of 2002 Sum of 2003 Sum of 2004 Sum of 2005 Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Source: Central Bank of Ecuador, numbers in thousands of dollars. Elaboration Stratega BDS Industrialized exports in the last 20 years have grown substantially specially industrialized tuna, coffee, cocoa and others. 2

5 2,500,000 Figure 4 Exports of Industrialized goods Other Industrialized 2,000,000 Textiles Panama Hatas Metal Manufactures 1,500,000 Chemicals and Pharmaceutical Other Manufactures seafood 1,000,000 Fish Meal Cocoa Manufactures 500,000 Coffee Manufactures Oil products Source: Central Bank of Ecuador, numbers in thousands of dollars. Elaboration Stratega BDS A characteristic factor of Ecuadorian exports is its concentration or lack of diversification. Analyzing all exports, oil and non-oil, by HS Code, which is shown in the following table, using broad sector definition (HS Code = 2 digits), exports reach more than 2/3 of total in 2005, with 4 broad sector, exports reach more than 80%, and with 9, they reach 90%. Table 1 Exports Concentration: Number of broad sector to reach 66%, 80, and 90% of total exports HS Code % 55.77% 43.16% 40.80% 40.61% 49.57% % 70.00% 62.21% 60.82% 59.68% 66.70% % 75.30% 68.37% 67.75% 67.76% 74.14% % 79.60% 74.78% 74.58% 73.51% 78.85% % 84.08% 79.72% 80.39% 78.65% 82.85% % 86.09% 82.34% 82.94% 80.49% 84.42% % 86.51% 84.11% 83.99% 82.63% 85.78% % 87.91% 85.81% 85.52% 84.26% 87.28% % 89.04% 87.21% 86.81% 85.73% 88.64% % 89.83% 88.00% 87.41% 86.26% 89.05% % 90.79% 88.96% 88.16% 86.98% 89.60% % 91.34% 89.50% 88.93% 87.76% 90.11% % 91.84% 89.99% 89.56% 88.50% 90.63% % 92.52% 90.75% 90.24% 89.52% 91.28% % 92.98% 91.21% 90.86% 90.20% Source: Central Bank of Ecuador. Elaboration Stratega BDS 91.91% If we narrow our analysis to just non-oil exports, in 2005, five broad sectors reach 66% of total exports, 11 broad sectors 80%, and 20 for 90% of total exports. 3

6 Table 2 Exports Concentration: Number of broad sector to reach 66%, 80, and 90% of total non oil exports HS Code % 32.17% 33.52% 33.82% 32.12% 33.95% % 44.15% 44.35% 45.53% 45.71% 48.71% % 53.86% 55.63% 57.06% 55.39% 58.05% % 64.01% 64.31% 66.88% 64.05% 66.00% % 68.56% 68.94% 71.19% 67.16% 69.11% % 69.49% 72.05% 72.95% 70.75% 71.80% % 72.67% 75.03% 75.53% 73.50% 74.78% % 75.22% 77.50% 77.72% 75.97% 77.48% % 77.00% 78.89% 78.73% 76.86% 78.28% % 79.17% 80.58% 80.00% 78.07% 79.38% % 80.41% 81.52% 81.29% 79.39% 80.39% % 81.55% 82.39% 82.36% 80.64% 81.41% % 83.09% 83.73% 83.51% 82.35% 82.70% % 84.12% 84.54% 84.56% 83.50% 83.95% % 85.12% 85.67% 85.24% 84.06% 84.64% % 85.72% 86.12% 85.81% 84.65% 85.27% % 86.56% 86.81% 86.43% 85.25% 85.85% % 87.52% 87.67% 87.43% 86.13% 86.45% % 88.83% 88.92% 88.66% 87.32% 87.66% % 89.27% 89.17% 89.07% 87.71% 88.02% % 90.05% 89.71% 89.81% 88.51% 89.07% % 90.65% 90.17% 90.30% 89.14% 90.11% % 91.31% 90.81% 91.03% 89.67% 90.49% % 92.03% 91.43% 91.61% 90.52% 91.30% % 92.60% 91.87% 92.11% 90.90% 91.68% Source: Central Bank of Ecuador. Elaboration Stratega BDS Methodology to pre-selected sectors We have pre-selected sectors for this proposal, using Central Bank non-oil export data from , provided by CORPEI and applying the following criteria: Growth (CAGR and year to year) Share of exports (as percentage of the total no oil exports) World export share (as % of world-wide exports) Absolute values of export (greater than 0.5% of the total no oil exports) Number of exporters and growth First, we identify sectors that have grown more than the growth rate of total exports, and then we analyzed them by three different rates from growth: 1) CAGR of 15 years, from ; 2) CAGR 10 years; and 3) CAGR of 5 years (since dollarization). In addition, we used a filter related to the importance of sector in total exports. This filter was determined to be 0.5% of the total of the no oil exports, and that is two million dollars for The sectors identified with this methodology, were compared with global exports of the same HS code, and also compared with main competing countries. The intention of this filter is identify products with competitiveness worldwide. In Figure no. 1 (next page) top non-oil growth export products for the last 15 years are shown. Products that have an important share of export in 2005, but that were not significant in 1990 are the following: roses (HS code ), canned tuna (H code ), canned sardines (HS code ), among others. 4

7 By 2005, Ecuador is the third largest exporter of flowers, and for canned tuna, Ecuadorian export of roses and in general of fresh cut flowers has grown very rapidly in the last decades. Rose exports (HS Code ), have grown from almost US$ 7 million in 1990 to more than $259 million in HS code , which represent other flowers, also have grown very quickly from $4.6 million to more than $55 million. HS Code , Cabbage and Broccoli also stand out, growing from 32 thousand dollars in 1990 to more than 36 million dollars in Likewise, mangoes and pineapples have reached very important of levels exports in the last years. Also, we found that palm hearts, concentrated passion fruit juice, pineapples, fresh fish, and other seafood has also shown important rate of growth. Figure 5: Major New Exports 300, , , , ,000 50,000 - Sum of 1990 Fob Sum of 1991 Fob Sum of 1992 Fob Sum of 1993 Fob Sum of 1994 Fob Sum of 1995 Fob Sum of 1996 Fob Sum of 1997 Fob Sum of 1998 Fob Sum of 1999 Fob Sum of 2000 Fob Sum of 2001 Fob Sum of 2002 Fob Sum of 2003 Fob Sum of 2004 Fob ,952 10,907 15,351 23,460 36,048 54,525 68,595 89, , , , , , , , , ,671 5,903 11,858 13,509 20,413 25,712 31,283 36,991 44,489 50,315 54,761 64,755 50,106 32,818 51,519 55, ,316 6,313 8,492 10,420 13,180 17,382 13,525 21,439 19,782 15,755 25,079 36, , , , , ,157 24,777 31,785 31,446 40,143 63, , ,953 93,582 92, , , , , ,617 53,634 35,590 48,389 66,480 82,117 91,032 59,647 18,957 63,931 38,129 55,048 90, , , , , ,125 8,741 13,111 18,156 18,132 24,168 27,979 22,267 28,066 32,928 39, ,947 6, ,465 22,690 34,360 30,864 42,356 28,985 21,655 23,251 40,026 34,859 40, ,234 33,336 21,012 21,440 28,649 31,317 30,220 42,808 57, ,154 2,554 5,103 7,585 9,847 12,741 14,097 10,828 16,083 17,512 11,746 23,160 38,421 Sum of 2005 Fob Source: Central Bank of Ecuador, numbers in thousands of dollars. Elaboration Stratega BDS Pre-selected sectors Following the methodology and selection criteria previously described, we identified 37 products that fulfill the growth criteria. The following table shows the products according to its HS Code. 5

8 Table 3 Potential Products of Study Potential HS Code 4 digsum of 1999 Fob Sum of 2000 Fob Sum of 2001 Fob Sum of 2002 Fob Sum of 2003 Fob Sum of 2004 Fob Sum of 2005 Fob imes in 16 years es in 10 years cagr 16 cagr 10 Cagr , , , , , , , % 13.0% 5.1% ,784 2,834 3,435 4,819 3,062 2,349 2,477 #N/A 8.27 #N/A 23.5% -15.3% ,414 13,558 21,465 19,782 15,766 25,093 36,397 1, % 15.7% 16.5% ,691 1,469 2,068 2,875 1,967 3,291 3,736 #N/A 1.97 #N/A 7.0% 6.8% ,365 3,706 6,888 7,883 9,870 7,096 10, % 13.8% 7.6% ,437 1,481 1,058 2,755 5, % 43.8% 40.7% ,408 13,267 17,163 26,789 39,035 43,000 46, % 18.2% 14.7% ,636 3,280 4,225 3,241 64, % 76.1% 5.3% ,877 4,948 2,273 14,586 31,913 35,127 47,767 #N/A 4.27 #N/A 15.6% 34.5% , , , , , , , % 10.8% 5.8% ,191 23,576 25,969 28,814 26,204 30,334 32, % 4.7% 2.7% ,262 31,261 39,199 36,122 42,987 51,122 61, % 15.1% 14.0% ,864 30,775 23,940 26,473 43,704 38,607 41, % 5.5% 12.1% ,920 8,156 9,766 14,624 14,785 19,225 24, % 14.9% 13.4% ,188 30,026 32,831 36,344 42,873 43,974 29, % 3.0% -4.8% ,583 3,114 4,822 1,977 9,186 11,171 11,459 #N/A 4.29 #N/A 15.7% 55.2% , ,560 2,534 3,596 7,496 8, % 39.0% 36.4% ,326 9,983 11,257 12,115 14,003 14,507 14,038 #N/A 2.60 #N/A 10.0% 3.8% ,814 6,396 6,043 5,820 8,433 10,338 10, % 17.9% 15.4% , ,478 3,552 2,192 #N/A #N/A 59.3% 125.1% ,952 4,963 3,998 3,686 4,337 5,864 6, % 6.6% 15.2% ,870 3,208 4,446 4,392 7,749 7,824 8, % 27.8% 19.1% ,532 7,049 6,944 9,767 8,302 10,745 12,069 #N/A 3.66 #N/A 13.8% 5.4% ,653 2,786 4,398 4,626 5,315 6,715 8,332 #N/A #N/A 44.6% 15.8% ,356 8,287 9,425 9,355 7,650 #N/A #N/A 69.8% -2.0% ,198 4, % 11.3% 97.9% ,623 11,351 16,571 17,893 12,570 23,911 39, % 17.8% 21.6% ,250 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 87.1% ,301 2,176 2,613 3, % 27.5% 32.0% , ,371 2,240 5,597 13,306 #N/A #N/A 40.6% 40.9% ,541 1,132 1,694 2,169 2,381 2,254 2,473 #N/A 6.56 #N/A 20.7% 3.3% ,860 2,389 1,673 1,653 2,071 3,514 3,410 #N/A 1.40 #N/A 3.4% 19.9% ,855 #N/A #N/A 67.2% 215.8% ,293 6,110 9,330 7,833 6,542 9,479 11,058 #N/A 1.47 #N/A 4.0% 9.0% ,021 4,548 5,099 4,309 2,976 3,237 2, % 4.1% -8.7% ,455 2,496 2,095 1,845 2,217 3,464 3, % 25.1% 14.9% Grand Total 2,971,451 2,484,361 2,778,672 2,981,360 3,432,212 3,357,548 3,948, % 2.4% 7.3% Source: Central Bank of Ecuador, numbers in thousands of dollars. Elaboration Stratega BDS The pre-selected sectors are the following: Fresh Cut Flowers Flowers exports is one of the pre-selected sectors by its growth of rate and its current world competitiveness based in its quality and costs. This is one of the exports with mayor number of producer and exporter. (See graph 6) History In 1982, what we now know as floriculture began in zone of Puembo, 40 km east of Quito. Gardens of Ecuador was the first plantation of carnations and chrysanthemums established in our country. A labor strike caused the farm to close operations. However, several years later, Mauricio Dávalos Guevara 2 and the company Rosas del Ecuador also began to export roses, this last with Colombian capital and technology transfer. 3 Due to the great success achieved about this farm, several other Ecuadorian entrepreneurs decide to enter the business of flowers, establishing farms of roses, carnations, and mini carnations in Cayambe and Tabacundo; by 1985 existed around 25 hectares of roses in these fields. The role that EXPOFLORES (the association of flower exporters) play in the growth of sector will be explored later in our research proposal, as it was founded at the end of 1984, very contemporary to the first exporters. Latter in 1984 the area under greenhouses started to grow very rapidly in the zones around Quito, especially in cattle ranches, reaching growth rates of 200% by EXPOFLORES 3 Ivan Hernández, Stratega BDS VP, headed the board of Rosas del Ecuador from

9 The trade agreement for the Andean region helped the floriculture in Ecuador to boom from 1991 onward. The tariff paid for roses fell from 6.9% to zero. Latter the growth decelerated just like other exports around 1995, following perhaps natural industrial cycles and increasing price competition. Although, flower exports never decreased, the 1998 crisis decelerates further its growth until After this year, export growth has been increasing. Ecuador is now the third largest exporter of flowers in the world, after Netherlands and Colombia, supplying the 7.15% of global FOB value. Its main market is the USA, (near 60% in 2005), providing 42% of USA roses and lisianthus import; 36% of liatris, and 90% of the Gypsophilia (Baby Breath). In the following tables, data on flower exports, numbers of exporter and global market share is presented. Year Total Exports Primary Flower Growth% Table 4 Export Data on Flowers Flower as % total Flowers as % primary Kilos US$ / kg % Flower / Total Total Area Ha. Crecim. Area ,622, % 0.02% ,905, % 0.02% 0.02% ,185,849 1, % 0.08% 0.08% ,927,694 1,641,151 3, % 0.18% 0.22% 0.18% ,193,501 1,860,593 4, % 0.19% 0.22% 0.19% ,353,883 2,026,300 9, % 0.39% 0.46% 0.39% % ,724,133 2,344,609 13, % 0.50% 0.58% 7, % % ,851,013 2,499,231 19, % 0.68% 0.77% 9, % % ,101,527 2,727,276 29, % 0.97% 1.10% 13, % % ,065,615 2,522,104 39, % 1.29% 1.57% 16, % % ,842,683 3,158,527 59, % 1.54% 1.87% 22, % % ,380,706 3,556,280 84, % 1.92% 2.37% 30, % 1, % ,872,648 3,809, , % 2.15% 2.75% 65, % 1, % ,264,363 4,252, , % 2.49% 3.08% 45, % 2, % ,203,049 3,199, , % 3.85% 5.06% 57, % 2, % ,451,085 3,388, , % 4.05% 5.32% 60, % 2, % ,926,626 3,698, , % 3.95% 5.26% 78, % 2, % ,678,436 3,431, , % 5.09% 6.94% 74, % 3, % ,029,752 3,714, , % 5.79% 7.84% 80, % 3, % ,222,694 4,534, , % 4.96% 6.81% 74, % 3, % ,752,892 6,024, , % 4.58% 5.89% 97, % 3, % ,869,357 7,761, , % 3.75% 4.77% 126, % Source: Central Bank of Ecuador, numbers in thousands of dollars, Expoflores, MAG; Elaboration Stratega BDS 7

10 400, , ,000 Figure 6 Flower Exports Flower Exports 354, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000-13,598 Total Flower Exports Rose Exports 19,247 6,951 10,907 29,936 15,350 39,575 23,459 59,164 36,048 84,326 54, ,806 64, ,010 74, , , , , ,649 Source: Central Bank of Ecuador, numbers in thousands of dollars. Elaboration Stratega BDS 135, , , ,447 Figure 7 Number of flower exporters per HS Code (10 Digit) 800 Count of EXPORTER HS Code Year Source: Central Bank of Ecuador, numbers in thousands of dollars. Elaboration Stratega BDS 4 4 A exporter can counted more than once, if it exports more than one type of flower. 8

11 Figure 8 Top 15 global exporters of Fresh Flowers 6,000,000,000 Sum of Trade Value 5,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 Reporter USA United Kingdom Thailand Spain Singapore New Zealand Netherlands Mexico Kenya Italy Israel Germany Ecuador Colombia Belgium 1,000,000, Period Source: UN COMTRADE. Elaboration: Stratega BDS In 1990, 57 exporters have been identified as shown in the following table. By 2005, there are more than 450 exporters of flowers. Table 5 Exporters in 1990 Count of EXPORTER Year EXPORTER 1990 AGRICOLA PAZCOR S.A. AGROFLORA C. LTDA. AGROINDUSTRIAL FLORES LA ANTONIA C.A(D) AGROINDUSTRIAL SAN JOAQUIN S.A. AMC ECUADOR CIA LTDA ARBUSTA CIA. LTDA. CLAROFLOR S.A. COMERCIALIZADORA ANDINA CIA LTDA CONSORCIO QUITO FLORES S.A. DONOSO UGALDE VICTOR MANUEL ECUAPETALOS ECUAROSAS CIA. LTDA. EL ROSEDAL S.A. EMPRESARIOS AGRICOLAS EMPAGRI C. LTDA. FLORADORNO DE CUSUBAMBA S.A. FLORECER CIA LTDA (D) FLORECER FLORES DE EXPORTACION DANBET C. LTDA. FLORES BAMANI CIA. LTDA. FLORES DE LOS ANDES FLORANDES S.A. FLORES DEL ECUADOR FLORESDOR S.A. FLORES DEL PACIFICO FLORPACIFIC CIA LTDA FLORES DEL PARAISO C.A. FLORPARAISO FLORES DEL QUINCHE S.A. FLORES EQUINOCCIALES S A FLOREQUISA FLORES INTERNACIONALES FLORIN S.A. FLOREXPO CIA LTDA FLORISOL CIA. LTDA. GUALA SALAZAR VICTOR ELIAS GUANGUILQUI-AGROPECUARIA INDUSTRIAL S.A. (GUAISA) HANSPETER HUG RICHNON/AMAZON FLOR (D) HILSEA INVESTMENTS LIMITED (D) INAGRO CIA LTDA (D) INDIPASISA S.A. INTERFLORA S.A. INTERTRAC-INTERNACIONAL DE TRANSACC. CONSOLIDADAS INTEXPO GRUPO INTERNACIONAL DE COM.EXTERIOR INVERNADERO DE LOS ANDES INLANDES SA.(D) INVERSIONES FLORICOLA S.A. LATINFLOR S.A. MUNDIFLOR CIA LTDA MUNOZ CAMPOZANO JAIME JUAN OCASIONALES OCHOA AGUIRRE RAUL ALBERTO PETYROS, PETALOS Y ROSAS S.A. PUYOL PERDOMO EDGAR RIMACO CIA LTDA RODRIGUEZ DE LA TORRE MARIO ERNESTO ROSA LINDA CIA. LTDA. ROSAS DE COUSIN CIA. LTDA.(D) ROSAS DEL ECUADOR ROSEDAL S.A. ROSINVAR CIA. LTDA. TORRI OLIVARI GIUSEPPE VALAREZO PINEDA COLON ESTEBAN VALAREZO PINEDA COLON ESTEBAN JOSE SAMUEL VEGAFLOR S.A. (D) VELVET FLORES CIA. LTDA. VITAGRICOLA CIA. LTDA. Source: Central Bank of Ecuador. Elaboration Stratega BDS 9

12 In addition, we have identified exporters who were active in 1990 and keep exporting in 2005, following is a small sample of exporters: Table 6 Exporters per year and products exported (HS Code) EXPORTER AAASACORPORATION S.A. 1 AGRICOLA EL ROSARIO AGRIROSE CIA.LTDA. 1 AGRICOLA LANDWORK CIA.LTDA. 2 AGRICOLA PAZCOR S.A. 1 3 AGRICOLA RIOPARAMO S.A. 1 AGRICOLA SAN ANDRES DEL CHAUPI S.A. 1 AGRICOLA SAN FULGENCIO AGRIFUL CIA LTDA 1 AGRICOLA TABACUNDO AGRITAB C.LTDA 3 AGRICOLA Y GANADERA OVIA S.A. 1 AGRIEXOTICA S.A. 1 AGRIFEG S.A. 1 AGRINAG S.A. 1 AGROCOEX AGROPROMOTORA DEL COTOPAXI 1 AGROEXPORT CIA. LTDA.(AGRICULTURA PARA LA EXPORTA. 1 AGROFLORA C. LTDA. 2 1 Source: Central Bank of Ecuador. Elaboration Stratega BDS In the previous table, it is also possible to pinpoint the rate of diversification in the products exported, for example, Agricola PAZCOR exported a single a product in 1990, but it exported three in Palm Hearts. Palm hearts have also been a product with great success, as matter of fact, Ecuador is the world leader palm hearts exporter. As shown in the following graph, Ecuador has displaced Brazil and Costa Rica from the first place in last 10 years. Trade Flow Export Figure 9 World Exports of Palm Hearts 100,000,000 Sum of Trade Value 90,000,000 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 Ecuador Reporter India Malaysia China Canada United Kingdom China, Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Chile Argentina Thailand Germany Philippines Guatemala Spain Italy Belgium-Luxembourg Finland Belgium Singapore USA France Guyana Venezuela Colombia Paraguay Peru Bolivia Ecuador Costa Rica Brazil Period Source: UN COMTRADE. Elaboration Stratega BDS Ecuadorian palm heart export grew from just $933 thousands in to almost $39 million in Palm hearts exports suffered a reverse in 2000 and 2001 when 10

13 Argentina, a big market for this product, endured a severe crisis, however, exporters had diversified to others markets, and exports recovered rapidly in HS Code 6 digits Figure 10 Ecuador Palm Hearts Exports 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 Total 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of 1990 Fob 1991 Fob 1992 Fob 1993 Fob 1994 Fob 1995 Fob 1996 Fob 1997 Fob 1998 Fob 1999 Fob 2000 Fob 2001 Fob 2002 Fob 2003 Fob 2004 Fob 2005 Fob Total 933 1, ,125 8,741 13,111 18,156 18,132 24,168 27,979 22,267 28,066 32,928 39,335 Data Source: Central Bank of Ecuador. Elaboration Stratega BDS The numbers of exporters grew from six 5 in 1990 to 18 in 2005 and are shown in the following table: Table 7 Exporters per year of Palm Hearts Count of EXPORTER Year EXPORTER Grand Total AGRIEXELL S.A. 1 1 CONSERVERA DEL VALLE S.A.(D) 1 1 CONSORCIO AGROINDUSTRIAL DEL PACIFICO CAPACIF C LT 1 1 CORNU GONZALEZ PEDRO ENRIQUE 1 1 DIBEAL CIA. LTDA. 1 1 ECAORO ELABORADOS DE CACAO DE EL ORO C A 1 1 ECUAMINOT S.A. 1 1 ECUAPALMITO S.A. 1 1 ECUAVEGETAL S.A. 1 1 EXPROPALM SOCIEDAD ANONIMA 1 1 FRELAN CIA.LTDA. 1 1 GERIC S.A. 1 1 INDUSTRIA AGRICOLA EXP. INAEXPO 1 1 INDUSTRIAL MERCANTIL ITMA T.C. LTDA 1 1 NATECUA S.A. 1 1 OCASIONALES 1 1 PALMAS PALM TRADE SOCIEDAD ANONIMA 1 1 PALMITOS BORBON S A 1 1 PROCECONSA S.A. PROCESADORA CONTINENTAL DE ALIM 1 1 PROTROPIC CIA. LTDA. 1 1 SERVICIO INTEGRAL PARA LA INDUSTRIA ALIMENTICIA SA 1 1 SIPIA C LTDA (SERVICIO INTEGRAL PARA LA IND ALIMEN 1 1 TRADINGCORP ECUATORIANA S.A. 1 1 ZURITA BLACIO JUAN CARLOS 1 1 Grand Total Source: Central Bank of Ecuador. Elaboration Stratega BDS Broccoli Broccoli exports have grown from 32 thousands dollars in 1990 to around $36 million in Although exports underwent hard times in the period of None of the initial six remain in business nowadays 11

14 2003, they have recovered reaching record levels in Exports were initially marketed for Europe and especially to Germany and Netherlands, but from 2001, the USA market has taken the lead and now it represents one third of exports. HS Code 6 digits Figure 11 Total Exports of Broccoli 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 Total 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of 1990 Fob 1991 Fob 1992 Fob 1993 Fob 1994 Fob 1995 Fob 1996 Fob 1997 Fob 1998 Fob 1999 Fob 2000 Fob 2001 Fob 2002 Fob 2003 Fob 2004 Fob 2005 Fob Total ,316 6,313 8,492 10,420 13,180 17,382 13,525 21,439 19,782 15,755 25,079 36,397 Data Source: Central Bank of Ecuador. Elaboration Stratega BDS The numbers of broccoli exporters have grown from one in 1990 to 10 in 2005, and the pioneer is still exporting by Table 8 Broccoli Exporters per year Count of EXPORTER Year EXPORTER Grand Total AGROMAYA S.A. 1 1 AGROMOD S.A. 1 1 ECOFROZ S.A. 1 1 FRUTIERREZ DEL ECUADOR 1 1 IQF AGROINDUSTRIAL DEL ECUADOR S.A. 1 1 NOVA ALIMENTOS ALIMENNOVASA S.A. 1 1 PILONES LA VICTORIA S.A. PILVICSA 1 1 PROVEFRUT S.A ROBERTO XAVIER ALZAMORA ENDARA 1 1 UNION DE ORGANIZ.CAMPESINAS CACAOTERAS UNOCACE 1 1 Grand Total 1 Source: Central Bank of Ecuador. Elaboration Stratega BDS

15 Mangoes Mangoes exports arise by 1999, mostly because hot water treatment plants were allowed for mangoes processing, a requisite imposed by USDA Aphis phitosanitary controls to enter in the USA market. HS Code 8 digits Figure 12 Mangoes exports 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Sum of 1990 Fob Sum of 1991 Fob Sum of 1992 Fob Sum of 1993 Fob Sum of 1994 Fob Sum of 1995 Fob Sum of 1996 Fob Sum of 1997 Fob Sum of 1998 Fob Sum of 1999 Fob Sum of 2000 Fob Sum of 2001 Fob Sum of 2002 Fob Sum of 2003 Fob Sum of 2004 Fob Total ,513 5, ,730 6,457 10,300 11,832 12,569 16,335 16,677 15,114 Data Source: Central Bank of Ecuador. Elaboration Stratega BDS Sum of 2005 Fob The numbers of Mangoes exporters have grown from 11 to 45 in last 15 year, as shown in the following table. Pineapple Another fruit export that has grown very quickly is Pineapple. It grew from more than half a million dollars in 1990 to almost $30 million in The number of exporters has also grown from eight to 44 in the same time period. In the following table and figure, the numbers of mangoes exporters as well as pineapple export growth are shown. 13

16 Table 9 Mangoes Exporters per year Count of EXPORTER Year EXPORTER Grand Total AGRICOLA E INDUSTRIAL ECUAPLANTATION S.A. 1 1 AGRICOLA GANADERA VALLE BUCAY S.A. 1 1 AGRICOLA OFICIAL S.A AGROFICIAL 1 1 AGRICOLA SANTA MARIA S.A. AGRISAMSA 1 1 AGRICOLA VICTORIOSA S.A 1 1 AGRIFIM IRRIGACION ECUATORIANA S.A. 1 1 AGROPECUARIA GANADERA ACUICOLA S.A. AGRONACUI 1 1 ALBA DEL ECUADOR S.A. ALBECUA 1 1 ALIMENTOS GRAN ALI ALIGRANSA S.A. 1 1 ANAGUANO QUILACHAMIN LUIS GONZALO 1 1 ARATON S.A. 1 1 BAMBUAGRO S.A. 1 1 BANAFRESH S.A. 1 1 BLIX S.A. 1 1 CAICEDO VARGAS CARLOS ESTUARDO 1 1 CORPORACION GUCHI S.A. 1 1 DILLON MANTILLA RAFAEL ADRIANO 1 1 EL ROSARIO S.A. 1 1 EXP. BANANERA NOBOA S.A. 1 1 EXPOLATINA S.A. 1 1 EXPORT FRUIT SERVICE S.A. EXFRUSERV 1 1 EXPORTACIONES DUREXPORTA S.A. 1 1 EXPORTADORA E IMPORTADORA HEMISFERIO SUR HEMISUR S 1 1 FRUTA RICA FRUTARIC S.A. 1 1 FRUTIERREZ DEL ECUADOR 1 1 GRUPO AGRIPRODUCT S.A. 1 1 IAGSA S.A. 1 1 IMP. Y EXP. REPRESENTACIONES Y PRODUC. MACROTECH C 1 1 INDUSTRIAL PESQUERA STA.PRISCILA S.A. 1 1 INTERTRAC-INTERNACIONAL DE TRANSACC. CONSOLIDADAS 1 1 INTEXPO GRUPO INTERNACIONAL DE COM.EXTERIOR 1 1 KORMAL SA 1 1 MALDONADO GRIJALBA JORGE 1 1 MIYAQUIL S.A. 1 1 NATIONAL TRADING NATRADE S.A. 1 1 NAVARRO VINCENT DIANA ROCIO 1 1 NINO FRUIT (NINOFRUIT) COMPANY S.A. 1 1 PILOT S.A. 1 1 PIÑAS RICAS DEL ECUADOR S.A. "PIRECUASA" 1 1 PIVANO S.A. 1 1 PLANTEIN S.A. 1 1 PRETTY LIZA FRUIT S.A. 1 1 QUIROLA LOJAS ESTEBAN ESTUARDO 1 1 REFIN S.A. 1 1 ROMAN ALVARADO LUIS ARCENIO 1 1 SECHIN ECUADOR S.A. 1 1 SELVATICA S.A. SELVAFRUIT 1 1 SEMBRIOS DE EXPORTACION SEMBRIEXPORT S.A. 1 1 SERVICIOS AGROINDUSTRIALES DE EXPORTACION AGROTECH 1 1 SOCIEDAD AGRICOLA RINUR S.A. RINURSA 1 1 SUMIMUNDO S.A. 1 1 TERELSA S.A. 1 1 U.B.E.S.A. UNION DE BANANEROS ECUATORIANOS S.A. 1 1 URDELSA S.A. 1 1 VALLEJO DORADO MILTON ISMAEL 1 1 VELA SOASTI MARIA GABRIELA 1 1 Grand Total Source: Central Bank of Ecuador. Elaboration Stratega BDS 14

17 HS Code 8 digits Figure 13 Pineapple exports 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Sum of 1990 Sum of 1991 Sum of 1992 Sum of 1993 Sum of 1994 Sum of 1995 Sum of 1996 Sum of 1997 Sum of 1998 Sum of 1999 Sum of 2000 Sum of 2001 Sum of 2002 Sum of 2003 Sum of 2004 Sum of 2005 Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Fob Total ,170 1,581 2,752 2,645 2,409 3,771 2,795 4,672 12,818 21,241 24,577 29,779 Data Source: Central Bank of Ecuador. Numbers in thousands of dollars. Elaboration Stratega BDS Passion fruit juice Ecuador is the world leader of concentrated Passion fruit juice exports. Its exports grew from less than a million dollars to almost $ 40 million in The number of exporters has doubled since 1990, but just a single exporter remains active in Figure 14 Passion fruit juice and concentrate HS Code 8 digits ,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 HS Code 6 digits 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of 1990 Fob 1991 Fob 1992 Fob 1993 Fob 1994 Fob 1995 Fob 1996 Fob 1997 Fob 1998 Fob 1999 Fob 2000 Fob 2001 Fob 2002 Fob 2003 Fob 2004 Fob 2005 Fob ,947 6, ,465 22,690 34,360 30,864 42,356 28,985 21,655 23,251 40,026 34,859 40,220 Data Source: Central Bank of Ecuador. Numbers in thousands of dollars. Elaboration Stratega BDS 15

18 Table 10 Passion fruit exporters HS Code Count of EXPORTER Year EXPORTER Grand Total AGROINDUSTRIAL FRUTA DE LA PASION CIA. LTDA. 1 1 CONSORCIO AGROINDUSTRIAL DEL PACIFICO CAPACIF C LT 1 1 ECUAJUGOS SA 1 1 INDUSTRIAS BORJA S.A. INBORJA S.A. 1 1 TROPIFRUTAS S.A AGRICOLA E INDUSTRIAL ECUAPLANTATION S.A. 1 1 AGRICOLA OFICIAL S.A AGROFICIAL 1 1 AGRO.IND.FRUTA DE LA PASION C. LTDA. 1 1 AGROINDUSTRIA DEL PACIFICO S.A. "AGPASA 1 1 ECUAVEGETAL S.A. 1 1 I.G.C. DEL ECUADOR 1 1 IAGSA S.A. 1 1 MIYAQUIL S.A. 1 1 QUICORNAC S.A. 1 1 Grand Total Source: Central Bank of Ecuador. Numbers in thousands of dollars. Elaboration Stratega BDS Other products that have increased exports dramatically in the last years are: Palm oil and sub products Pepper corns Tobacco Fish fillets including tilapia Some food preparations Wood products and furniture Why pre-selected sectors are relevant to the objectives of this study? The pre-selected sectors (flowers, mangoes, broccoli, palm hearts, passion fruit concentrated) are very relevant to identify and analyze the various drivers of exports, and their rate of diffusion. The cases identified present various degrees of rate of diffusion, for example, in the flower sector, this rate is very large, and by 2005 there are more than 600 exporters. In the other hand, the case of broccoli, export activities are concentrated in 4 or 5 exporters, but the production is very spread out. In this case the diffusion is mainly done by the exporters who need more production. In the case of mangoes the openness of USA markets by a change in phitosanitary regulations seems to have contributed to the growth of its export to record levels. The case of broccoli is also related to being able to export more to USA market. There is also information regards the role of business associations, government agencies and public-sector initiatives, in all these export cases, which will allow us to count with information that will allow us to asses their impact in the process of discoveries and diffusion Proposed Research Methodology The objective of this research proposal methodology is to provide a road map in how this study will provide answers to the following questions: 16

19 1. The first mover: Which was the first firm to export a non-negligible amount of the good? Was it a foreign or domestic actor? Was it an existing firm or an individual entrepreneur? What led this firm to do this: where did the idea come from, and what was the motivation for selecting this particular country/product? What is the history of this entrepreneur/firm (were they involved in a related industry domestically or abroad, had they previously experimented in other new activities but failed, etc.?) Was the discovery stimulated by any public support or incentives? What were the greatest hurdles to overcome? What were the greatest uncertainties at the planning stage, and what were the biggest surprises during the early days of the discovery? What was the degree of learning and productivity improvement? How did the first mover penetrate the foreign market, or did they begin with the domestic market? What were the coordination difficulties, and how were they overcome? What, from the point of view of the first mover, were the positive spillovers, if any, that they generated for subsequent entrants? Did they anticipate these spillovers in advance, and if so, did that influence their investment decision? How has diffusion affected the first mover: has it eaten away their market share, enhanced productivity through agglomeration economies, or something else? What are the other relevant aspects of the first mover s story? 2. Diffusion: Describe the process & by which other firms gradually joined the pioneer in exporting the new good. Describe the firm dynamics: how many firms had entered the market 5, 10, and 15 years after the discovery. What are the characteristics of the imitating firms (foreign/domestic, firms/individual entrepreneurs, coming from other industries upstream/downstream or using similar technology, or unrelated industries, etc.)? Did these firms discover new markets for the good, or did they supply the same markets as the first mover? What happened to the share of exports accounted by the first mover? Was export growth related to the rate of diffusion? What limited the first mover expanding faster and capturing more of the benefits of their discovery: were there financial or managerial constraints, did imitators drive up factor costs, did imitators compete directly with the first mover in the market, or was there something else? What was the process by which the knowledge diffused? What was the degree of uncertainty in the planning process of the imitators- were there important spill-ins from the first mover? Did significant uncertainty remain at the planning process? What was the learning curve like during the early years of operation? Was the same degree of investment in foreign market cultivation necessary? 3. Public Response: Characterize the degree of public involvement in the discovery and diffusion process, if any. What, if anything, did the Government do to stimulate the discovery (e.g. tax incentives, special economic zones, etc.) and/or accelerate diffusion? This is important because, as many examples show, the growth of an export sector requires new infrastructure and regulation and other actions that normally require Government interventions that are different from the ones that may have 17

20 encouraged the first mover. 5 Were there other external non-state actors that aided in the process of discovery and diffusion, such as NGOs, industry & trade associations, academic institutions, etc.? Before describing the process and methodology of research proposed, it is important to describe key public actors in the export development process. Export Government Policy Level: COMEXI: council that determines export and import as well as foreign direct investment main policies MICIP: Ministry of Trade and Competitiveness: planning, monitoring and execution of export development policies and its inter-institutional coordination. Ministry of International Relations: Provide information about Ecuadorian export products through its network comprise by 120 embassies and commercial offices around the world. Export Development Public-Private Agency: CORPEI: in charge of: create an export culture, foster creation and growth of valued added export as well as its diversification, and to increase competitiveness and productivity of Ecuadorian exports. Also CORPEI will provide market intelligence information as well as international channel for exporters to promote their products. Public Innovation System SENACYT: National Secretary of Science and Innovation in charge of national innovation policies FUNDACYT: Public and private agency that implement programs according to national innovation and science policy. Knowledge Training Institutions: SECAP until 2002 and from them CNCF, National Board for Professional Training, which provide training to employees of companies, among them exporters, which contribute with 0.05% of pay roll. In order to provide answers to already described questions, we will follow the following steps: 1. Identify and narrow pre-selected sectors to four, with best data available; also a counterfactual product will be chosen for each zone. 18