1 Vulnerability assessment and decision support systems for climate risk management International Research Center on El Niño Rodney Martínez Güingla
2 Does this family interested about the flooding was caused by the climate change or the climate variability? No. This family needed to avoid the flooding or at least be prevented to react. This is not only a climate related matter. We need to have public policies, translated in effective actions. For that, decisions in the ground should be made on the basis of good and opportune information about CLIMATE, VULNERABILITY AND IMPACTS
3 A lot of efforts on climate information Is that enough?
4 While the number of storms fluctuates around the average, the number of floods increases. The answer to this pattern is mostly explained by the vulnerability, not by climate.
5 Climate risk management and adaptation: some principles 1. To understand and estimate the Near Climate Change (10-15 years) considering this timeframe is consistent with planning and the nearest to the political cycles and decision makers needs. 1. To prioritize the analysis of indexes derived from observed climate data rather than climate scenarios or projections (more focus on climate variability is needed). 1. Present Climate Risk Management : the best way to implement adaptation. 1. To understand and estimate the present vulnerability and its historical evolution pattern at local scale. 5. Adaptation to climate change is a bottom up social construction that should be implemented by the local communities.
6 Vulnerability = [Exposure x susceptibility/adaptative Capacity ] The Vulnerability is the internal component of risk, then their elements are the only that can be managed. To accomplish that, the vulnerability should be studied and understood
7 LACK OF CLIMATE INFORMATION INCREASE OF PLAGUES AND DISEASES PUBLIC POLICIES ECOSYSTEMS AND BASINS STATUS EXCESS OF FERTILIZERS MARKETS CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE AGRICULTURE SECTOR LIMITED RESEARCH ON GENETIC WATER USE CONFLICTS LIMITED TECHNOLOGICAL TRANSFERENCE LIMITED OR INEXISTENT RISK TRANSFERENCE LAND DEGRADATION
8 Why to Assess vulnerability? To identify, the social, economical and environmental elements that make a community vulnerable. To better understand the dynamics of these elements over the territory (SPATIAL) and along the time (TEMPORAL). Having a spatial approach of the vulnerability help to risk managers to prioritize actions in the ground. Having a TEMPORAL approach of the vulnerability help to prospective risk management, to intervene over the critical elements and assess the impact of these actions (INDICATORS). To work on risk management based on a comprehensive vulnerability assessment put to risk managers in the way to solve the structural problems, not just responding to the emergencies.
9 Some considerations: The assessment of the social, economical and environmental components of climate vulnerability should consider the following criteria: To be based on evidences of the historical relationships: climate-population; climate ecosystems, climate-livelihoods. Identify the non climate factors which could influence in the previous relationships. To include the non climate factores as components of the vulnerability. To weight this factors, based on the experience of local stakeholders and communities and historical information.
10 A LOCAL CASE STUDY Implementation of an information system on sectoral vulnerability for climate variability and change in Guayas Province, Ecuador
11 SOCIAL, ECONOMICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL COMPONENTS OF CLIMATE VULNERABILITY V SE = (V AG + V AC + V TUR + V GAN + V IND + V MIN ) (CA CON-MOV + CA ENER + CA ACC_AG + CA PROT_INUN ) + (V POB + V SOC-CUL + V SER-BAS + V SOS_ECO ) (CAE EDU + CA SAL + CA ORG ) + (V FAC-NAT + V FAC-DEGE ) (CA JUR + CA OPE + CA PLAN ) CIIFEN, 2012 Only the integrated approach to the vulnerability can represent the reality and support decisions effectively.
12 ANALYSIS UNITS Social and Economical Component Environmental Component. CIIFEN, 2012 Parish level Micro basins
13 METHODOLOGY V E = (V AG + V AC + V TUR + V MIN ) (CA CON-MOV + CA ENER + CA ACC_AG ) V AG = Vulnerabilidad de la actividad agrícola V AC = Vulnerabilidad de la actividad acuícola V TUR = Vulnerabilidad de la actividad turística V MIN = Vulnerabilidad de la minería de extracción de materiales de construcción CA CON-MOV = Capacidad adaptativa conectividad y movilidad CA ENER = Capacidad adaptativa energética CA ACC_AG = Capacidad adaptativa acceso al agua CIIFEN, 2012
14 METHODOLOGY V S = (V POB + V SOC-CUL + V SER-BAS ) (CAE EDU + CA SAL + CA ORG ) V POB = Vulnerabilidad de la población V SOC-CUL = Vulnerabilidad socio-cultural V SER-BAS = Vulnerabilidad servicios básicos CA EDU = Capacidad adaptativa educacional CA SAL = Capacidad adaptativa salud CA ORG = Capacidad adaptativa organizacional CIIFEN, 2012
15 METHODOLOGY V SE = V E + V S V SE V E V S = Vulnerabilidad socioeconómica = Vulnerabilidad económica = Vulnerabilidad social CIIFEN, 2012
16 METHODOLOGY V A = (V FAC-NAT + V FAC-ANTR ) V FAC-NAT = Vulnerabilidad de factores naturales V FAC-DEGE = Vulnerabilidad por factores antropogénicos degenerativos CIIFEN, 2012
17 VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATIVE CAPACITY COLOR SCALES Valor Nivel de vulnerabilidad Color de representación 5 Muy alta Rojo 4 Alta Naranja 3 Moderada Amarillo 2 Baja Verde oscuro 1 Muy baja Verde claro Vulnerability Adaptative Capacity Valor Nivel de Cap.Adap. Color de representación 5 Muy alta Verde claro 4 Alta Verde oscuro 3 Moderada Amarillo 2 Baja Naranja 1 Muy baja Rojo
18 SOCIAL-ECONOMICAL VULNERABILITY ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY Color maps are more easy to understand and intuitive for decision makers
19 International Research Center on El Niño ONLINE VISUALIZATION SYSTEM
20 Visualization and access to Vulnerability maps
22 Vulnerability assessment
26 Documents Maps Audio Video TOOLS AND RESOURCES Documents Tree: Climate and CC Manuals and Methodologies Community Tools Water Vulnerability and CC Institutional documentation Summary of each document Preliminar y view of each document Download full document Download pages of the preliminary view
27 FINAL REMARKS Vulnerability can assessed including many variables, however, is better to limit the analysis to few, but meaningful and verificable ones. The selection of variables should be supported by the community and local stakeholders perception of climate-impacts relationships. Vulnerability assessment should not become only a GIS application, the feedback of the community must be taken in account for validation. The Climate Risk Management (CRM) and adaptation must include climate related factors and others independent of climate to be realistic and effective. CRM and Environmental management are instruments that contribute with integrated territorial security and communities resilience. To understand the vulnerability and estimate its probable evolution supports more effectively and efficiently to decision making.
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