The Dollar Implosion as the Trigger for the Gold and Silver Parabolic Explosion. Italy will not make it! Rolf Nef Manager Tell Gold & Silver Fund

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "The Dollar Implosion as the Trigger for the Gold and Silver Parabolic Explosion. Italy will not make it! Rolf Nef Manager Tell Gold & Silver Fund"

Transcription

1 The Dollar Implosion as the Trigger for the Gold and Silver Parabolic Explosion. Italy will not make it! Rolf Nef Manager Tell Gold & Silver Fund LuganoCommodityForum 2012

2 Performance Tell Gold & Silver Fund Performance Tell Gold & Silber Fonds in SFR Jan 10th February 17th JAN DEC NOV OCT OCT SEP AUG-11

3 Structure of the Speech. 1. The Nature of Money and Credit. 2. The Debt Situation of: US, Japan & Germany. 3. Italy will not make it. 4. The Swiss Situation. 5.Currencies: the US$ Implosion and it s Consequencies. 6. The Strategy of Tell Gold & Silver Fund

4 US Indebtedness. USA: All Credit in % GNP 450% % 350% 300% Total 250% Private 200% 150% 100% 50% Government 0% Quelle: Statistical History of the USA Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds

5 US 10 Year Interest-Rates.

6 US Credit Leverage Interest Rate Adjusted. US Credit Leverage Interes Rate Adjusted Total Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Quelle: Statistical History of the USA

7 Japan: Government Debt. Japan: Government Credit in % of GDP 250% % 150% 100% 50% 0% Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Source: IMF

8 Japanese Total Debt. Japan: Private, Government- and Total Credit in % of GDP 400% 350% Total 300% 250% private 200% 150% Government 100% 50% 0% Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Source: IMF

9 Japanese 10 Y Interest Future Japan: Interest Rate Future 10 Year (Jan. ) H RS NL 140 LS Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds

10 Germany: Equtiy Ratio Industry. Equîty Ratio of the Industry 90% % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Source: Bundesbank

11 Germany: Gov. Debt in % of GDP 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Germany: Government Debt in % of GNP Quelle: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silver Fund Source: OECD

12 Germany: Government Bond Yield 10Y Germany: Government Bond Yield in % 12,0 10, (December) B 2 8,0 6,0 4 4,0 A 1 2, , Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds 1982 Jan 1987 Jan 1992 Jan 1997 Jan Quelle: Bundesbank 2002 Jan 2007 Jan C 2012 Jan

13 Bund Future: At The End.

14 Greek Bond 1922; 5,9%

15 Italian Government Debt. Italy: Government Debt in % GNP 140% % 100% Quota Novanta 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds

16 Italy Bond 2033 Feb. 5,75 %.

17 Who Holds Italian Bonds. Italian Bond Investor Split (July 2011) Foreign Holdings 53%, 824 bn Italian Resident 12%, 181 bn Italy Other Financial, 16%, 247 bn Italy MFIs, 15%, 231 bn Banca d'italia, 4%, 68 bn

18 Swiss Confederated Debt in % of GNP Swiss Confed Debt in % of GNP 70% % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds

19 Swiss Real Estate Debt Switzerland: Real Estate Debt in % of GNP % 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silver Fund Source: SNB

20 Zurich Real Estate in SFR per Squaremeter Zürich: Real Estate in SFR per Squaremeter times 167!! Chartt: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds

21 Zurich Real Estate in Gold Zurich Real Estate in Ounces of Gold per m ,9 1 times 28 0,1 0, Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fund Source: Statistical Dep. Zurich

22 Swiss Franc US$ US$ Swiss Franc 7, (Jan.) 6, ,0 II 2 4,0 3,0 I 1 4 IV 2, , III , Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds 3 3 V

23 Euro in Swiss Francs Euro in Swiss Francs ,5 2 1,5 1 0, Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Source: CRB

24 Swiss Current Acc. And Trade Balance Switzerland: Current Account (LS) and Trade Balance (RS) in bio CHF Source: Heft 62 SKA, Bundesamt für Statistik Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds

25 Swiss Franc Loans in Europe SFR Denominated Loans in Europe, Total (LS) and in % GNP (RS) Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silver Fund ,0% 120,0% 100,0% 80,0% 60,0% 40,0% 20,0% 0,0% Source: UBS and SIX Total total non-banks Kredit/GNP non-banks/bip

26 Foreign Holdings of Liquid US$ Assets and US Dollar. Foreign Holdings of Liquid US$ Assets (RS) and Dollar-Index (LS) Dollar-Index Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Quelle: US Treasury 0

27 Foreign Held Sec. At the Fed 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Foreign Held Securities at the Fed in bio $ (RS) and Growth over 12 months (LS) (22. Feb.) Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Sopurce: Fed

28 Chicago Futures: Short Euro Euro Short Positions Chicago Futures in bio Euro (7. Feb.) Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silver Fund Source: CRB

29 US Current Account Deficit USA: Current Accout Deficit in Mia US$ Quelle: OECD Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds

30 US Government Deficit. USA: Government Deficit and Cost of Interest in Bio US$ Deficit Cost of Interest Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Quelle: Cogressional Budget Office

31 Euro-Dollar US Euro-Dollar (monthly) 1,8 1,6 1,4 1, (Jan.) 1' b 1 I 5 2' 1 0,8 3 a c 0,6 0, II 2 0, Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fund Source: CRB

32 Euro-Dollar daily

33 Dollar - Index Dollar Index (January) H LS 40 1 RS Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fund Source: CRB

34 Asian Currency Crisis 1997 Thai Bath in US$ (Nov.) Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Source: CRB

35 Gold Price Targeting Gold in US$ per Ounce, yearly III 1000 US-civil-war times 8 3 times 13 project to times 5 I 4 II Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fund

36 Gold Timing August 2011: 144 Months since August : 13 Years.. Gold in US$ and Fibonacci Mo (142 eff.) 233 Mo (235 eff.) Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds

37 Gold Weekly Technicals

38 The 1. Secret of Silver: Extremely Scarce. Value of Worldwide Gold & Silver in % of US Credit 90,0% 80,0% 26 bio $ Credit ,0% 60,0% 1 bio oz of gold 5 bio oz of gold 1 bio oz silver Gold 50,0% 40,0% Silver 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 12 bio oz of silver 1.6 % 0.8% 55'000 bio $ Credit 0.08% 0,0% Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silver Fund Source: Zurbuchen, Michigan, USA

39 Silver Bull Since 2003

40 Silver Correction Since May 2011

41 The 2nd Secret of Silver: Gold-Silver- Ratio BC : 52 actuall Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Quelle:Warren & Pearson, New York 1935

42 Gold Silver Ratio Monthly Gold Silver Ratio (Januar) Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds

43 Gold Silver Ratio Daily

44 The Technical Potential of Silver Silber in US$ (January) III 100 I 10 1 II 0, Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fund Quelle:

45 The Strategy Of The Tell Gold & Silver Fund A Portfolio With Physical Gold and Silver: Actual: 78% Metal, 22% Options or 8,6 Mio oz Silver. A Leverage of 422 Mio $ worth of Silver. Actual Gearing: ca. 31. Size Fund: 12,4 Mio SFR.

46 The Option Portfolio Total 8.62 Mio Oz Silver via Options Mio strike 37,5$ March 16th Mio strike 50$ Mid June Mio strike 50$ Aug./Sept Mio strike 50$ Dec. 2012

The Implosion of the US$: Impact for Gold and Silver. Rolf Nef Manager Tell Gold & Silver Fund LuganoFundForum Nov. 2012

The Implosion of the US$: Impact for Gold and Silver. Rolf Nef Manager Tell Gold & Silver Fund LuganoFundForum Nov. 2012 The Implosion of the US$: Impact for Gold and Silver. Rolf Nef Manager Tell Gold & Silver Fund LuganoFundForum Nov. 2012 Performance Tell Gold linear. Wertentwicklung Tell Gold & Silber Fonds in SFR 10.

More information

UPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT

UPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT 1 Oct 213 Macro & Strategy Equity Credit Commodities 13 13 #1 Global Strategy #1 Multi Asset Research #3 Global Economics #2 Equity Quant #2 Index Analysis #3 SRI Research 12 sector teams in the Top 1

More information

Fixed Income 2015 Update. Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research

Fixed Income 2015 Update. Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research Fixed Income 2015 Update Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research 1 Fed: Slow and Low 2015 Fixed Income Outlook 2 Yield Curve Flattening 3

More information

Italy Spain. France Germany. Percent (%)

Italy Spain. France Germany. Percent (%) March Commentary from Pacific Asset Management, the subadvisor to the Pacific Funds SM Fixed-Income Funds. The Euros Are Coming The gap between U.S. and European bond yields presents an interesting value

More information

Quest for Growth Results for Q3, January-March 2003

Quest for Growth Results for Q3, January-March 2003 Quest for Growth Results for Q3, January-March 2003 1 Jan Keuppens joins Quest Management Investment Manager Quoted Portfolio of Quest for Growth Former technology analyst with AXA Investment Managers,

More information

The Italian Asset Management market

The Italian Asset Management market key figures 23 April 2014 Research Department 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates The recent mkt recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales

More information

Staying alive: Bond strategies for a normalising world

Staying alive: Bond strategies for a normalising world Staying alive: Bond strategies for a normalising world Dr Peter Westaway Chief Economist, Europe Vanguard Asset Management November 2013 This document is directed at investment professionals and should

More information

Greek banks and corporate funding costs

Greek banks and corporate funding costs NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE Greek banks and corporate funding costs January 214 Paul Mylonas CRO & Chief Economist National Bank of Greece NBG: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT Economic Analysis Department Roadmap

More information

Chapter 17. Preview. Introduction. Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention

Chapter 17. Preview. Introduction. Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention Chapter 17 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention Slides prepared by Thomas Bishop Copyright 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Preview Balance sheets of central banks Intervention

More information

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT FOREIGN TRADE AND COMPETITIVENESS INFLATION CREDIT THE PUBLIC FINANCES

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT FOREIGN TRADE AND COMPETITIVENESS INFLATION CREDIT THE PUBLIC FINANCES NUMBER 99 JULY 21 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT FOREIGN TRADE AND COMPETITIVENESS INFLATION CREDIT THE PUBLIC FINANCES MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS 1 7 8 11 12 Directorate general for economics, statistics

More information

Alternative Finance for SMEs and Mid-Market Companies Brussels Presentation

Alternative Finance for SMEs and Mid-Market Companies Brussels Presentation Alternative Finance for SMEs and Mid-Market Companies Brussels Presentation 27th November, 2013 Agenda Introduction Backdrop: bank lending to companies in Germany, France, UK, Italy and Spain Policymakers

More information

Spanish Banking Sector.

Spanish Banking Sector. Spanish Banking Sector: Progress Report 22/2/211 Spanish Banking Sector. September 211 London, 22nd February 211 Tokyo, xx February 211 London Hong Kong, 2 th September xx February 211 Singapore, xx February

More information

2014 Asia Securities Forum Presented by the Korea Financial Investment Association

2014 Asia Securities Forum Presented by the Korea Financial Investment Association 2014 Asia Securities Forum Presented by the K O R E A I. Korean Capital Market I. Current Status II. Prospects II. Korean Financial Investment Industry C O N T E N T S III. Capital Market Regulations 2

More information

The Italian Asset Management market

The Italian Asset Management market key figures Research Department 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates The recent mkt recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund /

More information

Inflation. Credit. Coincident indicator (Ita-coin) and Italian GDP (1) (percentage changes)

Inflation. Credit. Coincident indicator (Ita-coin) and Italian GDP (1) (percentage changes) NUMBER 16 FEBRUARY 216 Economic activity and employment Foreign trade and competitiveness Inflation Credit The Public Finances Macroeconomic projections 1 7 8 11 12 Directorate general for economics, statistics

More information

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08* FDI Portfolio Investment Other investment

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08* FDI Portfolio Investment Other investment Chartbook Contact: Sebastian Becker +49 69 91-3664 Global Risk Analysis The unwinding of Yen carry trades Some empirical evidence 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 October 31, 28 Many years before the sub-prime crisis hit

More information

1. 2015 Gross Borrowing Requirements and Funding Plan

1. 2015 Gross Borrowing Requirements and Funding Plan 1 1. 2015 Gross Borrowing Requirements and Funding Plan 1.1 Gross Borrowing requirements The Treasury expects its 2015 gross borrowing requirements to amount to EUR 39.90 billion. This represents an increase

More information

Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy

Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy Sébastien Mc Mahon, CFA Economist Member, Asset Mix Committee Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy 2014 National Business Conference October 2014 1 October 23, 2014 Disclaimer Opinions expressed in this

More information

Guggenheim Investments. European High-Yield and Bank Loan Market Overview

Guggenheim Investments. European High-Yield and Bank Loan Market Overview Guggenheim Investments European High-Yield and Bank Loan Market Overview August 2015 European High-Yield & Bank Loan Market Overview Please see disclosures and legal notice at end of document. 2 August

More information

Economic Outlook in the Aftermath of the Debt Crisis

Economic Outlook in the Aftermath of the Debt Crisis Economic Outlook in the Aftermath of the Debt Crisis Prof. Dr. Klaus W. Wellershoff November 26th, 213 Act I 2 World: GDP Growth Rates 12 9 Change YoY in percent 6 3 3 Advanced economies BRIC 6 1995 2

More information

How To Understand The Financial Market For Insurers In Swissitzerland

How To Understand The Financial Market For Insurers In Swissitzerland Actuarial and Insurance Solutions Financial Market Analysis at endyear 2014 15 th January 2015 Audit. Tax. Consulting. Corporate Finance. Contents Executive Summary 1 1 Interest Rates 2 2 Equity Markets

More information

Annual result of the Swiss National Bank for 2010

Annual result of the Swiss National Bank for 2010 Communications P.O. Box, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 44 631 31 11 communications@snb.ch Zurich, 3 March 2011 Annual result of the Swiss National Bank for 2010 The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is reporting

More information

Recent U.S. Economic Growth In Charts MAY 2012

Recent U.S. Economic Growth In Charts MAY 2012 Recent U.S. Economic Growth In Charts MAY 212 GROWTH SINCE 29 The Growth Story Since 29 Despite the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and a series of shocks in its aftermath, the economy

More information

Assessing Sources of Funding for Insurance Risk Based Capital

Assessing Sources of Funding for Insurance Risk Based Capital Assessing Sources of Funding for Insurance Risk Based Capital Louis Lee Session Number: (ex. MBR4) AGENDA for Today 1. Motivations of Capital Needs 2. Practical Risk Based Capital Funding Options 3. Types

More information

How To Be Cheerful About 2012

How To Be Cheerful About 2012 2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery? Bart Van Craeynest Hoofdeconoom Petercam Bart.vancraeynest@petercam.be 1 2012: crises looking for answers Global slowdown No 2008-0909 rerun Crises

More information

OpenWorld Dynamic Assets Fund

OpenWorld Dynamic Assets Fund FUND BROCHURE OpenWorld Dynamic Assets Fund Protecting and generating wealth For Professional Investors only Russell s OpenWorld fund range offers investors access to some of Russell s highest conviction

More information

Event Driven Fund of Hedge Funds Seeking for Independence From Rising Long-Term Interest Rates

Event Driven Fund of Hedge Funds Seeking for Independence From Rising Long-Term Interest Rates Event Driven Fund of Hedge Funds Seeking for Independence From Rising Long-Term Interest Rates Stéphane Gutzwiller François Gutzwiller Q3 2015 Investment styles Merger arbitrage Distressed securities Special

More information

The U.S. Current Account Deficit and The Dollar

The U.S. Current Account Deficit and The Dollar The U.S. Current Account Deficit and The Dollar Olivier Blanchard paper available on web page 1 The U.S. current account deficit: The basic facts Large and getting larger: -5.7% in 2004, -6.2% in 2005?

More information

Monthly Update. January 2014

Monthly Update. January 2014 Monthly Update Politics On the 29 th of January, the President of the Republic of Serbia Mr. Tomislav Nikolic called for earlier Parliamentary elections for the 16 th of March 2014, in order to speed up

More information

Overview of prices for investment and securities business. Attractive terms for investors

Overview of prices for investment and securities business. Attractive terms for investors Overview of prices for investment and securities business Attractive terms for investors 2-3 Contents 01 Our pricing structure 4 02 Our asset management 5 03 Our securities management 11 04 Our securities

More information

A Strong U.S. Dollar Changes Everything

A Strong U.S. Dollar Changes Everything Schwab Center for Financial Research A Strong U.S. Dollar Changes Everything A white paper by Kathy A. Jones, Senior Vice President, Chief Fixed Income Strategist The U.S. dollar is near its highest level

More information

State budget borrowing requirements financing plan and its background May 2013

State budget borrowing requirements financing plan and its background May 2013 Public Debt Department State budget borrowing requirements financing plan and its background May 2013 THE MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION Monthly issuance calendar... 2 Record high level of foreign investors'

More information

Chapter 12. National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments. Slides prepared by Thomas Bishop

Chapter 12. National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments. Slides prepared by Thomas Bishop Chapter 12 National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments Slides prepared by Thomas Bishop Preview National income accounts measures of national income measures of value of production measures

More information

CENTERPOINT ENERGY TEXARKANA SERVICE AREA GAS SUPPLY RATE (GSR) JULY 2015. Small Commercial Service (SCS-1) GSR

CENTERPOINT ENERGY TEXARKANA SERVICE AREA GAS SUPPLY RATE (GSR) JULY 2015. Small Commercial Service (SCS-1) GSR JULY 2015 Area (RS-1) GSR GSR (LCS-1) Texarkana Incorporated July-15 $0.50690/Ccf $0.45450/Ccf $0.00000/Ccf $2.85090/MMBtu $17.52070/MMBtu Texarkana Unincorporated July-15 $0.56370/Ccf $0.26110/Ccf $1.66900/Ccf

More information

AT&T Global Network Client for Windows Product Support Matrix January 29, 2015

AT&T Global Network Client for Windows Product Support Matrix January 29, 2015 AT&T Global Network Client for Windows Product Support Matrix January 29, 2015 Product Support Matrix Following is the Product Support Matrix for the AT&T Global Network Client. See the AT&T Global Network

More information

Fritz Zurbrügg: The Swiss National Bank s investment policy some topical issues

Fritz Zurbrügg: The Swiss National Bank s investment policy some topical issues Fritz Zurbrügg: The Swiss National Bank s investment policy some topical issues Speech by Mr Fritz Zurbrügg, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Money Market Event, Geneva,

More information

ETFs at SIX Swiss Exchange. Lugano, 23 November 2015

ETFs at SIX Swiss Exchange. Lugano, 23 November 2015 ETPD Stream 2015 ETFs at SIX Swiss Exchange Lugano, 23 November 2015 European ETF asset growth is ongoing Source: ETFGI, industry insights, October 2015 3 Market Status ETF Segment 1 118 listed ETFs (1

More information

This page intentionally left blank

This page intentionally left blank Currency Futures This page intentionally left blank CURRENCY FUTURES Brian Coyle Routledge Taylor & Francis Group LONDON AND NEW YORK First published 2000 by Fitzroy Dearborn Publishers This edition published

More information

The Italian Asset Management market

The Italian Asset Management market key figures Research Department 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates A snapshot of the insurance market The recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets

More information

Continuously excessive exchangerate fluctuations

Continuously excessive exchangerate fluctuations July - No. Continuously excessive exchangerate fluctuations In this Flash, we will look at the currencies of major OECD countries (dollar, euro, yen, pound sterling, Swiss franc, Australian dollar) and

More information

INVESTOR PRESENTATION HALF YEAR 2012

INVESTOR PRESENTATION HALF YEAR 2012 INVESTOR PRESENTATION HALF YEAR 2012 CONTENTS 1. PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS HY 2012 2. ENVIRONMENT HY 2012 3. P&L & B/S DETAILS HY 2012 4. RAW MATERIALS & PACKAGING 5. OUTLOOK 2012 6. QUESTIONS & ANSWERS 2

More information

EXTERNAL DEBT AND LIABILITIES OF INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES. Mark Rider. Research Discussion Paper 9405. November 1994. Economic Research Department

EXTERNAL DEBT AND LIABILITIES OF INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES. Mark Rider. Research Discussion Paper 9405. November 1994. Economic Research Department EXTERNAL DEBT AND LIABILITIES OF INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Mark Rider Research Discussion Paper 9405 November 1994 Economic Research Department Reserve Bank of Australia I would like to thank Sally Banguis

More information

S&P 500 Composite (Adjusted for Inflation)

S&P 500 Composite (Adjusted for Inflation) 12/31/1820 03/31/1824 06/30/1827 09/30/1830 12/31/1833 03/31/1837 06/30/1840 09/30/1843 12/31/1846 03/31/1850 06/30/1853 09/30/1856 12/31/1859 03/31/1863 06/30/1866 09/30/1869 12/31/1872 03/31/1876 06/30/1879

More information

Treasury Presentation to TBAC

Treasury Presentation to TBAC Treasury Presentation to TBAC Office of Debt Management Fiscal Year 2015 Q1 Report Table of Contents I. Fiscal II. A. Quarterly Tax Receipts p. 4 B. Monthly Receipt Levels p. 5 C. Eleven Largest Outlays

More information

General Government debt: a quick way to improve comparability

General Government debt: a quick way to improve comparability General Government debt: a quick way to improve comparability DEMBIERMONT Christian* BIS Bank for International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland Christian.Dembiermont@bis.org In simple words the General

More information

State budget borrowing requirements financing plan and its background

State budget borrowing requirements financing plan and its background Public Debt Department State budget borrowing requirements financing plan and its background September 2014 THE MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION Monthly issuance calendar... 2 MoF comment... 8 Rating agencies

More information

P. ZIHLMANN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT AG

P. ZIHLMANN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT AG P. ZIHLMANN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT AG Your independent Swiss asset manager THE TIMELESS PRECIOUS METAL FUND THE TIMELESS ENERGY FUND THE SIERRA MADRE GOLD & SILVER VENTURE CAPITAL FUND Gold: BUY, HOLD OR

More information

Global Banking Glut and Loan Risk Premium

Global Banking Glut and Loan Risk Premium Global Banking Glut and Loan Risk Premium Hyun Song Shin April 2012 Shin: Global Banking Glut and Loan Risk Premium 1 Gross Capital Flows Capital flows driven by real (saving & investment) decisions? Gross

More information

Portfolio Management After the Crisis: No Risk - More Fun? Gamma Foundation, Lugano, November 2009

Portfolio Management After the Crisis: No Risk - More Fun? Gamma Foundation, Lugano, November 2009 Portfolio Management After the Crisis: No Risk - More Fun? Gamma Foundation, Lugano, November 2009 Table of Contents I. The International Financial Crisis Caused by more than just greed II. Where do we

More information

TURKISH FINANCIAL MARKETS IN PRACTISE

TURKISH FINANCIAL MARKETS IN PRACTISE TURKISH FINANCIAL MARKETS IN PRACTISE SECOND MEETING OF TURKISH-RUSSIAN WORKING GROUP ON BANKING AND FINANCIAL COOPERATION September 2011 EMEL GÜNEŞ HEAD OF TREASURY, DENIZBANK TURKISH FINANCIAL SECTOR:

More information

The Edge-Lipper Singapore Awards 2004 24.02.05

The Edge-Lipper Singapore Awards 2004 24.02.05 The Edge-Lipper Singapore Awards 2004 24.02.05 Lipper A Reuters Company Robin Thurston Vice President Global Director of Research, Media, and Marketing Lipper What we believe in Independence Objectivity

More information

Deutsche Bundesbank Interest rate statistics 01.12.2015

Deutsche Bundesbank Interest rate statistics 01.12.2015 01.12.2015 period SUD113 7 SUD114 7 SUD115 7 SUD116 7 SUD117 7 SUD118 7 SUD119 7 SUD120 7 SUD121 7 SUD122 7 2015 June 4.83 4.98 7.33 2.11 1.81 1.72 1.92 1.69 2.74 2.05 July 5.09 5.01 7.47 2.17 1.91 1.86

More information

Demand for RMB and Financial Services through Hong Kong by German Businesses

Demand for RMB and Financial Services through Hong Kong by German Businesses Demand for RMB and Financial Services through Hong Kong by German Businesses Think Asia, Think Hong Kong Munich, 11 September 2014 Think Asia, Think Hong Kong Munich, 11 September 2014 Page 1 Asia: Key

More information

Finding yield in dividendpaying

Finding yield in dividendpaying Market & Investment Insights Finding yield in dividendpaying stocks Mike Holbert, Portfolio Manager, Active Equities Article Highlights: Low interest rates have spurred investors to search for yield outside

More information

Country Background Sri Lanka. Investor-Country Conference Cairo, Egypt March 26-27, 2010

Country Background Sri Lanka. Investor-Country Conference Cairo, Egypt March 26-27, 2010 Country Background Sri Lanka Investor-Country Conference Cairo, Egypt March 26-27, 2010 Macro Economic data 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 GDP growth 6.0 (1.5) 4.0 5.9 5.4 6.2 7.7 6.8 6.0

More information

Domestic vs. Global Fixed Income

Domestic vs. Global Fixed Income Domestic vs. Global Fixed Income New Zealand Fixed Income Research 1, 24 February 2012 Investors face an asset allocation choice between holding domestic or global fixed income. Each can play a similar

More information

ICEG EC OPINION V. February, 2005.

ICEG EC OPINION V. February, 2005. ICEG EC OPINION V. Foreign Currency Denominated Borrowing in Central Europe: Trends, Factors and Consequences By László Bokor Gábor Pellényi February, 2005. INTRODUCTION Foreign currency borrowing has

More information

Economic Data. October 30, 2015. October 29, 2015

Economic Data. October 30, 2015. October 29, 2015 Economic Data October 29, 2015 Country Economic Data Actual Expected Previous NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% JPY Industrial Production M/M Sep 1.00% -0.60% -1.20% AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q3

More information

Fixed Income Investing The Danger of Duration

Fixed Income Investing The Danger of Duration Fixed Income Investing The Danger of Duration IAPF Conference Dublin October 1 st 2013 David Greene Client Portfolio Manager Pioneer Investments Summary of Our Business Autonomous asset management company

More information

SEB s Swedish Residential Mortgage Lending and Covered Bonds. Stockholm September, 2013

SEB s Swedish Residential Mortgage Lending and Covered Bonds. Stockholm September, 2013 SEB s Swedish Residential Mortgage Lending and Covered Bonds Stockholm September, 2013 Contents SEB s Residential Mortgage Lending p.3 Asset Quality p.19 Cover Pool and Covered Bond Funding p.24 2 SEB

More information

Course Syllabus For Banking and Financial Management Department

Course Syllabus For Banking and Financial Management Department For Banking and Financial Management Department School Year First Year First year Second year Third year Fifth year Fifth year Fifth year Fifth year Name of course Financial Accounting principles Intermediate

More information

Glovista Global Perspectives

Glovista Global Perspectives Issue 65 May/15 Monthly Newsletter for Global Investors Glovista Global Perspectives This issue : S&P Sector Performance P.2 Ccy and Cmdty Performance P.3 Important Interest Rates P.4 Carlos Asilis, Ph.D.

More information

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market Communications P.O. Box, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 44 631 31 11 Fax +41 44 631 39 10 Zurich, 13 September 2007 Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market The

More information

Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012. Mehmet Şimşek. Minister of Finance

Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012. Mehmet Şimşek. Minister of Finance Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012 Mehmet Şimşek Minister of Finance 1 Outline Turkey: Short Term Outlook Managing a Soft Landing Fallout from the Euro Crisis Turkey & MENA REBALANCING Growing ON

More information

Contract Specifications 2015 Mini Trading Account

Contract Specifications 2015 Mini Trading Account Forex Currency Pairs Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar (AUDCAD@) Australian Dollar / Swiss Franc (AUDCHF@) Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen (AUDJPY@) Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar (AUDNZD@)

More information

ICE Futures Implied Prices

ICE Futures Implied Prices ICE Futures Implied Prices ICE Futures has expanded implied pricing capability for each of its Futures contracts. The platform fully implies prices much farther out the curve. It broadcasts implied prices

More information

Copyright Osec 2008. Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

Copyright Osec 2008. Alle Rechte vorbehalten. Agenda 1. Osec's Mission Statement 2. Osec's Mandates 3. Swiss Business Hubs 4. Osec Services 5. Pool of Experts 6. What We Can Do for You 7. Success Stories 8. Contacts Osec Foundation: 1927 Head Office:

More information

2014 Public Service Pension Plan Annual Report

2014 Public Service Pension Plan Annual Report 2014 Public Service Pension Plan Annual Report 2014 Public 2013 Service MEPP Annual Pension Report Plan Annual Report Table Table of Contents of Contents Governance Public Service Statement... Pension

More information

Chart I.1. Difference between Primary Surplus (PS) and Bond Yield Spreads in Selected EU 1 Countries

Chart I.1. Difference between Primary Surplus (PS) and Bond Yield Spreads in Selected EU 1 Countries LIST OF CHARTS Chart I.1. Difference between Primary Surplus (PS) and Bond Yield Spreads in Selected EU 1 Countries Chart I.2. Gross Debt Stock and Budget Deficits of Selected Countries as of 2010 1 Chart

More information

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS* COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) 2 Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

More information

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS* COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) 2 Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

More information

Diversifying with Negatively Correlated Investments. Monterosso Investment Management Company, LLC Q1 2011

Diversifying with Negatively Correlated Investments. Monterosso Investment Management Company, LLC Q1 2011 Diversifying with Negatively Correlated Investments Monterosso Investment Management Company, LLC Q1 2011 Presentation Outline I. Five Things You Should Know About Managed Futures II. Diversification and

More information

Invesco Capital Shield 90 (EUR) Fund Monthly Fund Analysis

Invesco Capital Shield 90 (EUR) Fund Monthly Fund Analysis This document is exclusively for use by professional clients and financial advisors in Continental Europe and is not for retail client use. Please do not redistribute. All opinions and forecasts expressed

More information

Fina4500 Spring 2015 Extra Practice Problems Instructions

Fina4500 Spring 2015 Extra Practice Problems Instructions Extra Practice Problems Instructions: The problems are similar to the ones on your previous problem sets. All interest rates and rates of inflation given in the problems are annualized (i.e., stated as

More information

r a t her t han a s a f e haven

r a t her t han a s a f e haven r a t her t han a s a f e haven For Professional Advisers only - not for onward distribution Investors exposure to gold continues to grow but we believe that more consideration of the risks is needed.

More information

CHICAGO STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. MARKET REGULATION DEPARTMENT INFORMATION CIRCULAR

CHICAGO STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. MARKET REGULATION DEPARTMENT INFORMATION CIRCULAR June 12, 2014 ETF-014-053 CHICAGO STOCK EXCHANGE, INC. MARKET REGULATION DEPARTMENT INFORMATION CIRCULAR RE: ishares TRUST ETFS TO BEGIN TRADING ON CHX Pursuant to Information Circular MR 08-16, the Chicago

More information

Assumptions: No transaction cost, same rate for borrowing/lending, no default/counterparty risk

Assumptions: No transaction cost, same rate for borrowing/lending, no default/counterparty risk Derivatives Why? Allow easier methods to short sell a stock without a broker lending it. Facilitates hedging easily Allows the ability to take long/short position on less available commodities (Rice, Cotton,

More information

Equity Sell-off Continues, Bonds Affected

Equity Sell-off Continues, Bonds Affected Equity Sell-off Continues, Bonds Affected Executive Summary Portfolio Performance So Far The 1-month performance of all model portfolios have been affected by the recent sell-off in equities, with returns

More information

Strong YTD Performance of the PSEi and Global Stock Markets

Strong YTD Performance of the PSEi and Global Stock Markets Strong YTD Performance of the PSEi and Global Stock Markets PSEi vs MSCI All Country World Index 120 115 110 105 100 95 PSEi +17.7% MSCI+12.2% Two common questions Is this insanity? Or is this sustainable?

More information

Contract Specifications 2015 Dynamic STP Trading Account

Contract Specifications 2015 Dynamic STP Trading Account Forex Currency Pairs (Online Trading Platform Symbol) 2 Minimum Price Fluctuation Tick / Point Value Pip Value Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar (AUDCAD# / AUDCAD ) AUD 00,000 0.0000 CAD CAD 0 Australian

More information

Annual financial statements, distributions & tax issues

Annual financial statements, distributions & tax issues Portfolio Funds 2087605 CH0020876055 Credit Suisse (CH) Interest & Dividend Focus Balanced CHF A CHF CH 31.12. Distributing 19955038 CH0199550382 Credit Suisse (CH) Interest & Dividend Focus Balanced CHF

More information

2015 Final capital gains distributions as of 1/6/2016

2015 Final capital gains distributions as of 1/6/2016 2015 Final capital gains distributions as of 1/6/2016 The following pages list final capital gain payments for the Deutsche funds, payable to shareholders as of the dates indicated. With the final capital

More information

Money market portfolio

Money market portfolio 1 Money market portfolio April 11 Management of Norges Bank s money market portfolio Report for the fourth quarter 1 Contents 1 Key figures Market value and return 3 3 Market risk and management guidelines

More information

Annual Borrowing Plan

Annual Borrowing Plan 20154 Bosnia and Herzegovina Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina Federal Ministry of Finance Annual Borrowing Plan 2016 January 2016 www.fmf.gov.ba INTRODUCTION In order to increase transparency, fiscal

More information

Index Solutions A Matter of Weight

Index Solutions A Matter of Weight Index Solutions A Matter of Weight Newsletter No. 11 Our current newsletter is about weight, or more precisely the weighting of equities in an index. Non-market capitalization weighted indices are at present

More information

2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts. The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund.

2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts. The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund. 2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund Alessio de Longis 1 The Role of Currency in Institutional Portfolios, edited by Momtchil

More information

Economic indicators dashboard

Economic indicators dashboard AS OF NOVEMBER 17, 2015 Economic indicators dashboard Vist www.blog.helpingadvisors.com for the full commentary of the Economic Indicators Dashboard. MOST RECENT 3-MO. trend TYPICAL range EXTREME range

More information

This act of setting a price today for a transaction in the future, hedging. hedge currency exposure, short long long hedge short hedge Hedgers

This act of setting a price today for a transaction in the future, hedging. hedge currency exposure, short long long hedge short hedge Hedgers Section 7.3 and Section 4.5 Oct. 7, 2002 William Pugh 7.3 Example of a forward contract: In May, a crude oil producer gets together with a refiner to agree on a price for crude oil. This price is for crude

More information

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK DANISH GOVERNMENT DEBT MANAGEMENT. October 2014

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK DANISH GOVERNMENT DEBT MANAGEMENT. October 2014 DANMARKS NATIONALBANK DANISH GOVERNMENT DEBT MANAGEMENT October 2014 2 Kingdom of Denmark: AAA, Stable Outlook Low government debt Current account surplus and net external assets Reform-oriented policies

More information

Discussion of Global Liquidity and Procyclicality by Hyun Song Shin

Discussion of Global Liquidity and Procyclicality by Hyun Song Shin International Monetary Fund Discussion of Global Liquidity and Procyclicality by Hyun Song Shin Maurice Obstfeld Economic Counsellor June 8, 2015 World Bank Washington DC Main themes: U.S. financial conditions

More information

ASEAN Capital Market Integration and Lessons from the European Union

ASEAN Capital Market Integration and Lessons from the European Union ASEAN Capital Market Integration and Lessons from the European Union 44 th IAFEI World Congress: Global Recovery Amidst Reforms Makati Shangri-la 16 October 2014 Thiam Hee Ng, Senior Economist Asian Development

More information

Good for business: get your forex transactions on track

Good for business: get your forex transactions on track Companies Foreign currencies Good for business: get your forex transactions on track Do you want to hedge foreign currency risks or invest in forex? A bank that takes your needs into account and provides

More information

Diversify your wealth internationally

Diversify your wealth internationally ab UBS Swiss Financial Advisers Diversify your wealth internationally UBS Swiss Financial Advisers offers US investors a safe, easy and tax-compliant way to diversify their assets abroad. Contents 3 Why

More information

2015 ONTARIO BUDGET Schedule of Debt

2015 ONTARIO BUDGET Schedule of Debt 2015 ONTARIO BUDGET Schedule of Debt Outstanding Debt - Consolidated Summary Interim 2015 ($ Millions) Province OEFC 2014-15 2013-14 Debt Non-Public Debt Issued by the Province Guaranteed by the Province

More information

Mexico: The challenges of capital inflows. Manuel Sánchez, Deputy Governor

Mexico: The challenges of capital inflows. Manuel Sánchez, Deputy Governor Manuel Sánchez, Deputy Governor Adam Smith Seminar, Schloss Spiez, Switzerland, June 26, 2013 Contents 1 Taxonomy of capital inflows 2 Risks and the prevention of problems 3 Economic outlook 2 Like other

More information

Thinking tactically: What really happens next?

Thinking tactically: What really happens next? Thinking tactically: What really happens next? Guy Monson March 2015 Since 2008, Central bank asset purchases have successfully protected markets from an array of global risks... A SHARP INCREASE IN CENTRAL

More information

Bond Markets in Emerging Asia: Progress, Challenges, and ADB Work Plan to Support Bond Market Development. Asian Development Bank

Bond Markets in Emerging Asia: Progress, Challenges, and ADB Work Plan to Support Bond Market Development. Asian Development Bank Bond Markets in Emerging Asia: Progress, Challenges, and ADB Work Plan to Support Bond Market Development Asian Development Bank November 2009 A. Noy Siackhachanh Advisor Office of Regional Economic Integration

More information

Solution to Chapter 11 E11 1,3,4,5,6,7,9,12

Solution to Chapter 11 E11 1,3,4,5,6,7,9,12 Solution to Chapter 11 E11 1,3,4,5,6,7,9,12 E11-1 Exchange Rates a. Indirect exchange rates for pounds and dollars: $1.00 =.625 British pounds (1 pound / $1.60) $1.00 = 1.3514 Canadian dollars (1 Canadian

More information

7 th OECD Forum on Africa Public Debt Management

7 th OECD Forum on Africa Public Debt Management BUILDING BLOCKS FOR LIQUID PRIMARY AND SECONDARY MARKETS CASE OF KENYAN MARKET 7 th OECD Forum on Africa Public Debt Management Cape Town, South Africa 26-28, June 2013 By Mwenda Marete, Assistant Director,

More information

Press release. Communications. P.O. Box, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 44 631 31 11 communications@snb.ch. Zurich, 23 June 2014

Press release. Communications. P.O. Box, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 44 631 31 11 communications@snb.ch. Zurich, 23 June 2014 Communications P.O. Box, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 44 631 31 11 communications@snb.ch Zurich, 23 June 2014 Balance of payments and international investment position in Q1 2014 Change to new IMF standard

More information