The Implosion of the US$: Impact for Gold and Silver. Rolf Nef Manager Tell Gold & Silver Fund LuganoFundForum Nov. 2012
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1 The Implosion of the US$: Impact for Gold and Silver. Rolf Nef Manager Tell Gold & Silver Fund LuganoFundForum Nov. 2012
2 Performance Tell Gold linear. Wertentwicklung Tell Gold & Silber Fonds in SFR 10. Jan Oktober JAN DEC NOV OCT OCT SEP AUG
3 Performance Tell Gold logarithmic. Wertentwicklung Tell Gold & Silber Fonds in SFR 10. Jan Oktober JAN DEC NOV OCT OCT SEP AUG
4 Positions of Tell Gold: Ca. 50 % physical Gold and Silver. Tot. 10,574 Mio Ounces Silver via Options. 0,674 Mio Dez. 12 strike 50$ 0,9 Mio March 13 strike 40$ 7,2 Mio March 13 strike 50$ 1,5 Mio June 13 strike 40$ 0,3 Mio Sept. 13 strike 50$
5 US Credit Leverage. USA: All Debt in % of GNP. 450% % 350% 300% 250% Total Privat 200% 150% Goverment 100% 50% 0% Quelle: Statistical History of the USA Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds
6 The US$ Bubble I. Foreign Holdings of Liquid US$ Assets (RS) and Dollar-Index (LS) Dollar-Index Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Quelle: US Treasury
7 US$ Bubble II. US$ in Foreign Hands in % of GNP 90% % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Chart: rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Source: US Reasury
8 US Trade Deficit. US-Trade Deficit in Bio $US Grafik: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Quelle: Fed St. Louis
9 US-Budget Deficit. US Federal Deficit in % of GNP % 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Grafik: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Quelle: Fed St. Louis
10 Credit Bubble China.
11 Credit Bubble Japan. Japan: Private, Government- and Total Credit in % of GDP 400% 350% Total 300% 250% private 200% 150% Government 100% 50% 0% Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Source: IMF
12 Credit Bubble Europe I.
13 Credit Bubble Europe II.
14 Credit Bubble Europe III.
15 Credit Bubble Europe: Italy. Italy: Government Debt in % GNP 140% % 100% Quota Novanta 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds
16 Italian Bond Market.
17 Italian Lira. Italian Lira in Swiss francs Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds
18 Swiss Credit Bubble. Switzerland: Mortgage Debt in % GNP 180% % 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Quelle: SNB
19 Zurich Real Estate in SFR and Silver. Zurich Real Estate in Oz Silver (LS) and Swiss Francs (RS) per m times 61!! times Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silver Fund Source: Statistical Dep. Zurich
20 US Credit Bubble and Interest Rates. USA: All Debt in % of GNP. 450% % 350% 300% 250% Total Privat 200% 150% Goverment 100% 50% 0% Quelle: Statistical History of the USA Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds
21 US Interest Rates 10Y Treasury.
22 US Leverage Interest Rate adjusted. USA: Alle Kredite/BSP * Zinssatz Total Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Quelle: Statistical History of the USA
23 US Monetary Base. US Monetary Base in Bio $US Sept Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Source: Fed St. Louis
24 Swiss Credit Bubble Interest Rate Adjusted. Switzerland: Mortgage Rate * Real Estate Debt/GNP Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silver Fund Source: SNB
25 US $ Bubble. US$ in Foreign Hands in % of GNP 90% % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Chart: rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Source: US Reasury
26 SFR US $ Bubble: Swiss Franc US$ in Schweizer Franken, jährlich Weltkrieg US-Depression II 2 Bretton-Woods US-Bürgerkrieg I III IV Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds
27 US $ Bubble: Swiss Franc Monthly. US$ Swiss Franc (October) II I 1 4 IV Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds III V
28 US$ Bubble: Euro-$ Euro-Dollar (monatlich) (September) 1' 1'' b I 1 5 2' II a c Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fund Source: CRB
29 US$ Bubble: Euro-$ Weekly.
30 US$ Index Dollar Index (September) H LS 40 RS Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fund Source: CRB
31 US$ Index Weekly.
32 Currency Crash: Thai Bath. Dollar-Thai Bath (daily) Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Quelle: CRB
33 Gold and Fibonacci. Gold in US$ and Fibonacci times 13 = 8'600 $ 1000 times Mo (235 eff.) (1980) times 5 Ausnahme Exception (1869) 144 Mo (142 eff.) Years (1999) August (1968) (1835) (1879) (1934) Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds
34 Gold Projections Since 1999.
35 This Rythm points to May 2013.
36 Silver and Lucas Figures. 10 Gold (RS) und Silber (LS) in US$, logarithmische Skala = 1870 (Fibo) Gold (RS) 34 Jahre (Fibo.) 24. Sept ,5 $ (Jan. - Nov) Dez 1834 Juli (Jan. - August) Silber (LS) = 1861 (Lucas ) 29 Jahre (Lucas) (Lucas) 10 Aug Juli/Aug Grafik: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Quelle:
37 Silver and Lucas Figures. Silber in US$, logarithmische Skala (Oktober) Jan x Jahre 11 Jahre 10 Feb Juni 2003, Start Bull 1 Dez Grafik: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Quelle:
38 Silver and Lucas Figures.
39 Silver Projections. June Months = Sept June Months = Jan August Months = March August Months = July Jan. Aug Years = J-A 2013.
40 Silver Since 1720 in US$ Silber in US$ (September) 1932 bis 1980 von 0,25 $ auf 50$ mal 200! Exzess 1979: mal 12. I III 1 II 4,42 $ Tief: 0,25 US- Cents Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fund Quelle:
41 Extreme Silver Scarcity. Value of Worldwide Gold & Silver in % of US Credit 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 26 bio $ Credit 1 bio oz of gold bio oz of gold ever mined 2 bio oz in liquid form 1 bio oz silver Gold Silver 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 12 bio oz of silver 1.6 % 0.8% 55'000 bio $ Credit 0.08% 0.0% Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silver Fund Source: Zurbuchen, Michigan, USA
42 Gold Silver Ratio: Silver Too Cheap! Gold-Silver- Ratio BC : 53 aktuell Chart: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds Quelle:Warren & Pearson, New York 1935
43 Mining Shares not Attractive Relative to Silver & Gold. HUI / Silver (Oktober) 100 Nov. 2003: 46,2 10 August 12: 14, /30/ Grafik: Rolf Nef, Tell Gold & Silber Fonds
44 What To Do? 2013 most likely a major top in gold & silver followed by a crash, but not the end. Core position: Physical gold and silver. Trade positon: ETFs on gold and silver. Speculative Position: Tell Gold & Silver.
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