Productivity slowdown: Comparative perspectives Euro area and Germany
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1 Productivity slowdown: Comparative perspectives Euro area and Germany Marcel Fratzscher DIW Berlin and Humboldt University Berlin PIIE Workshop Washington DC, 16 November 2015
2 The crisis trap Financial/banking crisis Credit crunch Credit risk & losses Cost of recapital. Credit risk & losses Economic crisis Confidence crisis Fiscal consolidation Fiscal deficits Debt crisis 2
3 Secular stagnation? Growth as key challenge Real GDP in Europe (Index, Q = 100) Euro Area Germany Spain Netherlands France Italy Credit standards (Change compared to previous quarter) Consumer Credit (Next Qtr) Firm Credit (Next Qtr) Housing Credit (Next Qtr) Source: Eurostat. Last observation: Q EA7d Source: European Central Bank. Last observation: Q EA2c
4 The Germany Illusion
5 Most Europeans with little productivity growth Change ULC ( , diff. to EA avg.) Productivity (inverted sign) Compensation ULC IE ES PT GR IT NL FR BE FI AT DE Quelle: Eurostat, EU Commission. 5
6 6 Diverging productivity and investment
7 Dysfunctional credit channel Source: 7 ECB, JP Morgan.
8 8 Bank risks rising further
9 9 Deflation risk rising too
10 II. Investment gaps are large in Europe Average investment gap % GDP Germany 2,9 2,5 3,7 Netherlands 2,6 1,9 4,8 Finland 1,5 1,5 2,0 Belgium* -0,8-0,5-0,7 France 0,0 0,3-0,3 Austria -0,5-1,0 0,6 Italy -0,9-1,4 0,5 Greece -1,5-5,0 3,0 Portugal -0,8-2,7 4,1 Spain -4,3-6,2 1,1 Ireland -0,1-3,6 9,4 USA** -1,2-2,3 1,9 Japan 0,1-0,6 2,4 Sources: DIW calculations based on OECD data
11 Investment gap in most sectors Source: WIOD SEA, World Bank, calculations DIW Berlin
12 Expert committee on investment : 10-Point Plan 1. Rules Positive net investment rate (unexpected) surpluses to be used for public investment Creation of autonomous institutions with specific tasks (e.g. Asfinag AUT) 2. Public investment esp. municipalities financing: 15 bn. "Investment pact for municipalities" technical assistance: public infrastructure bodies risk sharing: "investment fund" and "citizens fund" 12
13 Expert committee on investment : 10-Point Plan 3. Private Investment Environment: skilled workers, immigration, regulation, workforce participation, family policy, financing research and development: 3.5% goal startup companies: mentality, taxation on losses, biased taxation of equity capital energy digital infrastructure 4. Europe transform Juncker plan into a permanent mechanism energy, digital infrastructure, transport, regulation 13
14 What can Germany do for Europe? 1. Stronger joint rules: fiscal policy, no bail-out Move from inter-governmental to more federal structure of decisions 2. EU insurance system (vs. transfer union): more self-reliance, ex ante fairness 3. More stability orientation E.g. on inflation, economic activity, sovereign debt 4. Louder voice E.g. ECB decision-making; is compromise possible? 5. Investment productivity - growth Germany as big beneficiary; e.g. via trade 14
15 15 Appendix
16 16 1. Growth expectations decline further
17 2. Huge decline in FDI in Europe Source: OECD, DIW calculations
18 3. Rising financial fragmentation Staatsanleihen des Heimatlandes (% der Bilanzsumme der Banken) Staatsanleihen des Heimatlandes (% des Eigenkapitals der Banken) 0,12 0,1 0,08 0,06 0,04 0,02 Deutschland Portugal Italien Irland Griechenland Spanien Eurozone 1,6 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 Deutschland Portugal Italien Irland Griechenland Spanien Eurozone Quelle: Europäische Zentralbank. Letzte Beobachtung: Oktober Quelle: Europäische Zentralbank Letzte Beobachtung: Oktober 2013.
19 4. Massive debt overhang 19
20 20 Debt overhang not adjusting (yet)
21 5. Massive private investment gap Abbildung 2: Bruttoanlageinvestitionen ohne Wohnungsbau, nominal in % des BIP ,2 15,1 14,6 12,9 11, West Deutschland Deutschland Quelle: EU-Kommission 21
22 Deflation already reality
23 Trade-off limited probability high cost Risk 1. Secular stagnation and deflation Probability (medium-term) High Cost High 2. Political crisis Medium High 3. Bank default Medium High 4. Sovereign debt crisis Low High 5. Emerging market slow-down Low Medium 6. Geopolitical conflict Low Medium 7. Slow reforms Medium Medium
24 II. Trend decline in investment
25 Investment gap, esp. for municipalities
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