Productivity slowdown: Comparative perspectives Euro area and Germany

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Productivity slowdown: Comparative perspectives Euro area and Germany"

Transcription

1 Productivity slowdown: Comparative perspectives Euro area and Germany Marcel Fratzscher DIW Berlin and Humboldt University Berlin PIIE Workshop Washington DC, 16 November 2015

2 The crisis trap Financial/banking crisis Credit crunch Credit risk & losses Cost of recapital. Credit risk & losses Economic crisis Confidence crisis Fiscal consolidation Fiscal deficits Debt crisis 2

3 Secular stagnation? Growth as key challenge Real GDP in Europe (Index, Q = 100) Euro Area Germany Spain Netherlands France Italy Credit standards (Change compared to previous quarter) Consumer Credit (Next Qtr) Firm Credit (Next Qtr) Housing Credit (Next Qtr) Source: Eurostat. Last observation: Q EA7d Source: European Central Bank. Last observation: Q EA2c

4 The Germany Illusion

5 Most Europeans with little productivity growth Change ULC ( , diff. to EA avg.) Productivity (inverted sign) Compensation ULC IE ES PT GR IT NL FR BE FI AT DE Quelle: Eurostat, EU Commission. 5

6 6 Diverging productivity and investment

7 Dysfunctional credit channel Source: 7 ECB, JP Morgan.

8 8 Bank risks rising further

9 9 Deflation risk rising too

10 II. Investment gaps are large in Europe Average investment gap % GDP Germany 2,9 2,5 3,7 Netherlands 2,6 1,9 4,8 Finland 1,5 1,5 2,0 Belgium* -0,8-0,5-0,7 France 0,0 0,3-0,3 Austria -0,5-1,0 0,6 Italy -0,9-1,4 0,5 Greece -1,5-5,0 3,0 Portugal -0,8-2,7 4,1 Spain -4,3-6,2 1,1 Ireland -0,1-3,6 9,4 USA** -1,2-2,3 1,9 Japan 0,1-0,6 2,4 Sources: DIW calculations based on OECD data

11 Investment gap in most sectors Source: WIOD SEA, World Bank, calculations DIW Berlin

12 Expert committee on investment : 10-Point Plan 1. Rules Positive net investment rate (unexpected) surpluses to be used for public investment Creation of autonomous institutions with specific tasks (e.g. Asfinag AUT) 2. Public investment esp. municipalities financing: 15 bn. "Investment pact for municipalities" technical assistance: public infrastructure bodies risk sharing: "investment fund" and "citizens fund" 12

13 Expert committee on investment : 10-Point Plan 3. Private Investment Environment: skilled workers, immigration, regulation, workforce participation, family policy, financing research and development: 3.5% goal startup companies: mentality, taxation on losses, biased taxation of equity capital energy digital infrastructure 4. Europe transform Juncker plan into a permanent mechanism energy, digital infrastructure, transport, regulation 13

14 What can Germany do for Europe? 1. Stronger joint rules: fiscal policy, no bail-out Move from inter-governmental to more federal structure of decisions 2. EU insurance system (vs. transfer union): more self-reliance, ex ante fairness 3. More stability orientation E.g. on inflation, economic activity, sovereign debt 4. Louder voice E.g. ECB decision-making; is compromise possible? 5. Investment productivity - growth Germany as big beneficiary; e.g. via trade 14

15 15 Appendix

16 16 1. Growth expectations decline further

17 2. Huge decline in FDI in Europe Source: OECD, DIW calculations

18 3. Rising financial fragmentation Staatsanleihen des Heimatlandes (% der Bilanzsumme der Banken) Staatsanleihen des Heimatlandes (% des Eigenkapitals der Banken) 0,12 0,1 0,08 0,06 0,04 0,02 Deutschland Portugal Italien Irland Griechenland Spanien Eurozone 1,6 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 Deutschland Portugal Italien Irland Griechenland Spanien Eurozone Quelle: Europäische Zentralbank. Letzte Beobachtung: Oktober Quelle: Europäische Zentralbank Letzte Beobachtung: Oktober 2013.

19 4. Massive debt overhang 19

20 20 Debt overhang not adjusting (yet)

21 5. Massive private investment gap Abbildung 2: Bruttoanlageinvestitionen ohne Wohnungsbau, nominal in % des BIP ,2 15,1 14,6 12,9 11, West Deutschland Deutschland Quelle: EU-Kommission 21

22 Deflation already reality

23 Trade-off limited probability high cost Risk 1. Secular stagnation and deflation Probability (medium-term) High Cost High 2. Political crisis Medium High 3. Bank default Medium High 4. Sovereign debt crisis Low High 5. Emerging market slow-down Low Medium 6. Geopolitical conflict Low Medium 7. Slow reforms Medium Medium

24 II. Trend decline in investment

25 Investment gap, esp. for municipalities

Klicken Sie, um das Titelformat. zu bearbeiten. The Eurocrisis: new challenges for the EU s. economic policy. Thomas Westphal. 23th of February 2015

Klicken Sie, um das Titelformat. zu bearbeiten. The Eurocrisis: new challenges for the EU s. economic policy. Thomas Westphal. 23th of February 2015 The Eurocrisis: new challenges for the EU s Klicken Sie, um das Titelformat economic policy zu bearbeiten Thomas Westphal Klicken Director Sie, General um das European Format Policy des Untertitel-Masters

More information

Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) This presentation is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license.

Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) This presentation is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) This presentation is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. Therefor you are free to share and adapt this presentation even for

More information

Two topics. Sweden and the euro Sweden and globalisation

Two topics. Sweden and the euro Sweden and globalisation Two topics Sweden and the euro Sweden and globalisation The framing of the debate A political issue - How much integration do we want? - Which contribution do we want to make? An economic issue - The economic

More information

Stability in the Eurozone: Challenges and Solutions

Stability in the Eurozone: Challenges and Solutions Stability in the Eurozone: Challenges and Solutions Ludger Schuknecht Director General Economic and Fiscal Policy Strategy; International Economy and Finance IMFS Working Lunch, Frankfurt (Main), 15 July

More information

NATIONAL BANK OF POLAND. No. 40

NATIONAL BANK OF POLAND. No. 40 NATIONAL BANK OF POLAND WORKING PAPER No. 40 Expected and actual impact of EMU on growth, public finances and structural reforms in the euro area Konrad Szeląg Warsaw, January 2007 Design: Oliwka s.c.

More information

The Debt Challenge in Europe. Alan Ahearne and Guntram Wolff October 2011

The Debt Challenge in Europe. Alan Ahearne and Guntram Wolff October 2011 The Debt Challenge in Europe Alan Ahearne and Guntram Wolff October 2011 Outline The challenge: debt overhang and price adjustment. Large increase in private debt prior to the crisis. Balance-sheet adjustments

More information

The Legal Protection Insurance Market in Europe. October 2013

The Legal Protection Insurance Market in Europe. October 2013 The Legal Protection Insurance Market in Europe October 2013 The Legal Protection Insurance Market in Europe October 2013 In its latest publication RIAD, the International Association of Legal Protection

More information

Remarks at 5th SEEK Conference on Overcoming the Crisis: How to Foster Innovation and Entrepreneurship in a Diverging European Economy?

Remarks at 5th SEEK Conference on Overcoming the Crisis: How to Foster Innovation and Entrepreneurship in a Diverging European Economy? Remarks at 5th SEEK Conference on Overcoming the Crisis: How to Foster Innovation and Entrepreneurship in a Diverging European Economy? Peter Praet Member of the Executive Board 5 years ahead growth expectations

More information

Overcoming the Crisis

Overcoming the Crisis Overcoming the Crisis Klaus Regling, Managing Director, ESM Bank of Greece Athens, 10 July 2014 Reasons for the crisis The crisis was caused by a very specific mix of circumstances: Excessive deficit/debt

More information

FROM GOVERNMENT DEFICIT TO DEBT: BRIDGING THE GAP

FROM GOVERNMENT DEFICIT TO DEBT: BRIDGING THE GAP FROM GOVERNMENT DEFICIT TO DEBT: BRIDGING THE GAP Government deficit and debt are the primary focus of fiscal surveillance in the euro area, and reliable data for these key indicators are essential for

More information

and monetary developments

and monetary developments economic developments box 8 unemployment developments in the euro area The situation in euro area s has worsened significantly since the start of the economic and financial crisis in 28. After reaching

More information

ECB Financial Stability Review

ECB Financial Stability Review Vítor Constâncio ECB Financial Stability Review May 214 28 May 214 Press conference presentation Rubric Recent developments Measures of banking system stress have eased further as banking union preparations

More information

Figure 1 Statutory corporate income tax rates

Figure 1 Statutory corporate income tax rates Figure 1 Statutory corporate income tax rates 7 6 1982 2001 5 4 3 2 1 Austria Belgium Canada Finland France UK Germany Greece Ireland Italy Japan Netherlands Notes: For countries using different tax rates,

More information

How Europe is Overcoming the Euro Crisis?

How Europe is Overcoming the Euro Crisis? How Europe is Overcoming the Euro Crisis? Klaus Regling, Managing Director, ESM University of Latvia, Riga 3 March 2014 Eight reasons for the sovereign debt crisis 1. Member States did not fully accept

More information

72/2015-21 April 2015

72/2015-21 April 2015 72/2015-21 April 2015 Provision of deficit and debt data for 2014 - first notification Euro area and EU28 government deficit at 2.4% and 2.9% of GDP respectively Government debt at 91.9% and 86.8% In 2014,

More information

Finland and Sweden in a cross country comparison. What are the lessons?

Finland and Sweden in a cross country comparison. What are the lessons? Antti Suvanto Finland and Sweden in a cross country comparison. What are the lessons? Euroframe Conference Warsaw, 24 May2013 Outline Performance longer-term trends the recession experience Policy monetary

More information

DEBT LEVELS AND FISCAL FRAMEWORKS. Christian Kastrop Director of Policy Studies Branch Economics Department

DEBT LEVELS AND FISCAL FRAMEWORKS. Christian Kastrop Director of Policy Studies Branch Economics Department DEBT LEVELS AND FISCAL FRAMEWORKS Christian Kastrop Director of Policy Studies Branch Economics Department Introduction OECD average gross government debt increased from 73% of GDP in 2007 to 111% in 2013.

More information

2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery?

2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery? 2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery? Bart Van Craeynest Hoofdeconoom Petercam Bart.vancraeynest@petercam.be 1 2012: crises looking for answers Global slowdown No 2008-0909 rerun Crises

More information

Use of the BIS international banking statistics

Use of the BIS international banking statistics Use of the BIS international banking statistics FSB Data Gaps Workshop Basel 2-3 May 2012 Patrick McGuire Monetary and Economics Department Bank for International Settlements 1 Primary uses of BIS data

More information

Conducting Monetary Policy with Large Public Debts. Gita Gopinath Harvard University

Conducting Monetary Policy with Large Public Debts. Gita Gopinath Harvard University Conducting Monetary Policy with Large Public Debts Gita Gopinath Harvard University 1 Large Public Debts Net Government debt to GDP Greece 155 Japan 134 Portugal 111 Italy 103 Ireland 102 United States

More information

Investment and Investment Finance in Croatia, how can the EIB contribute? Dario Scannapieco and Debora Revoltella European Investment Bank

Investment and Investment Finance in Croatia, how can the EIB contribute? Dario Scannapieco and Debora Revoltella European Investment Bank Investment and Investment Finance in Croatia, how can the EIB contribute? Dario Scannapieco and Debora Revoltella European Investment Bank 24 March 2014 Outline EU and Croatia key challenges The Investment

More information

Comparison of annuity markets (OECD National Annuity Markets: Features and Implications, Rusconi 2008) Mercer

Comparison of annuity markets (OECD National Annuity Markets: Features and Implications, Rusconi 2008) Mercer May 2009 Retirement Income/Annuities Around the World What US Policy Makers Might Learn Barbara Marder, Baltimore Global Defined Contribution Consulting Leader www.mercer.com 1 Comparison of annuity markets

More information

European perspective

European perspective Fiscal policy challenges from a European perspective Ludger Schuknecht Director General Economic and Fiscal Policy Strategy; International Economy and Finance Federal Ministry of Finance, Germany Banco

More information

COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION 2014 DRAFT BUDGETARY PLANS OF THE EURO AREA: OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE BUDGETARY SITUATION AND PROSPECTS

COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION 2014 DRAFT BUDGETARY PLANS OF THE EURO AREA: OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE BUDGETARY SITUATION AND PROSPECTS EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 15.11.2013 COM(2013) 900 final COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION 2014 DRAFT BUDGETARY PLANS OF THE EURO AREA: OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE BUDGETARY SITUATION AND PROSPECTS EN

More information

PUBLIC DEBT SIZE, COST AND LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY: PORTUGAL VS. EURO AREA PEERS

PUBLIC DEBT SIZE, COST AND LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY: PORTUGAL VS. EURO AREA PEERS PUBLIC DEBT SIZE, COST AND LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY: PORTUGAL VS. EURO AREA PEERS 1. Introduction This note discusses the strength of government finances in, and its relative position with respect to other

More information

NERI Quarterly Economic Facts Summer 2012. 4 Distribution of Income and Wealth

NERI Quarterly Economic Facts Summer 2012. 4 Distribution of Income and Wealth 4 Distribution of Income and Wealth 53 54 Indicator 4.1 Income per capita in the EU Indicator defined National income (GDP) in per capita (per head of population) terms expressed in Euro and adjusted for

More information

Recent U.S. Economic Growth In Charts MAY 2012

Recent U.S. Economic Growth In Charts MAY 2012 Recent U.S. Economic Growth In Charts MAY 212 GROWTH SINCE 29 The Growth Story Since 29 Despite the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and a series of shocks in its aftermath, the economy

More information

Spillover Effects of a Demand Boom in Northern Europe on Output and Employment in Southern Europe

Spillover Effects of a Demand Boom in Northern Europe on Output and Employment in Southern Europe Spillover Effects of a Demand Boom in Northern Europe on Output and Employment in Southern Europe Oliver Picek 1 Enno Schröder 2 1 The New School for Social Research 2 The New School for Social Research,

More information

Prospects for the Construction Industry. Oebele Vries

Prospects for the Construction Industry. Oebele Vries Prospects for the Construction Industry Oebele Vries Economic framework Credit crisis: deep global recession Strongly decreasing investment demand Lack of commercial credit possiblities Bottom has been

More information

Eliminating Double Taxation through Corporate Integration

Eliminating Double Taxation through Corporate Integration FISCAL FACT Feb. 2015 No. 453 Eliminating Double Taxation through Corporate Integration By Kyle Pomerleau Economist Key Findings The United States tax code places a double-tax on corporate income with

More information

Annual Economic Report 2015/16 German council of economic experts. Discussion. Lucrezia Reichlin, London Business School

Annual Economic Report 2015/16 German council of economic experts. Discussion. Lucrezia Reichlin, London Business School Annual Economic Report 2015/16 German council of economic experts Discussion Lucrezia Reichlin, London Business School Bruegel Brussels, December 4 th 2015 Four parts I. Euro area economic recovery and

More information

Economic Outlook in the Aftermath of the Debt Crisis

Economic Outlook in the Aftermath of the Debt Crisis Economic Outlook in the Aftermath of the Debt Crisis Prof. Dr. Klaus W. Wellershoff November 26th, 213 Act I 2 World: GDP Growth Rates 12 9 Change YoY in percent 6 3 3 Advanced economies BRIC 6 1995 2

More information

Spain Economic Outlook. Rafael Doménech EUI-nomics 2015 Debating the Economic Conditions in the Euro Area and Beyond Firenze, 24th of April, 2015

Spain Economic Outlook. Rafael Doménech EUI-nomics 2015 Debating the Economic Conditions in the Euro Area and Beyond Firenze, 24th of April, 2015 Spain Economic Outlook Rafael Doménech EUI-nomics 2015 Debating the Economic Conditions in the Euro Area and Beyond Firenze, 24th of April, 2015 The outlook one year ago: the risks were to the upside for

More information

Be prepared Four in-depth scenarios for the eurozone and for Switzerland

Be prepared Four in-depth scenarios for the eurozone and for Switzerland www.pwc.ch/swissfranc Be prepared Four in-depth scenarios for the eurozone and for Introduction The Swiss economy is cooling down and we are currently experiencing unprecedented levels of uncertainty in

More information

Has Austerity Worked in Spain?

Has Austerity Worked in Spain? December 215 Has Austerity Worked in Spain? By David Rosnick and Mark Weisbrot* Center for Economic and Policy Research 1611 Connecticut Ave. NW Suite 4 Washington, DC 29 tel: 22-293-538 fax: 22-588-1356

More information

Facts: Population Baldwin & Wyplosz 2006

Facts: Population Baldwin & Wyplosz 2006 Facts: Population Facts: Population 6 big nations: > 35 million (Germany, the UK, France, Italy, Spain and Poland). Netherlands: 16 million people. 8 small nations (size of a big city): 8 to 11 million:

More information

Overcoming the Debt Crisis and Securing Growth- Irreconcilable Challenges for the Euro-zone?

Overcoming the Debt Crisis and Securing Growth- Irreconcilable Challenges for the Euro-zone? Franco-German Conference Overcoming the Debt Crisis and Securing Growth- Irreconcilable Challenges for the Euro-zone? Cinzia Alcidi, CEPS May 3, 2010, Paris Outline: General post crisis background Debt

More information

European Monetary Union Chapter 20

European Monetary Union Chapter 20 European Monetary Union Chapter 20 1. Theory of Optimum Currency Areas 2. Background for European Monetary Union 1 Theory of Optimum Currency Areas 1.1 Economic benefits of a single currency Monetary effi

More information

The redistributive effect and progressivity of taxes revisited

The redistributive effect and progressivity of taxes revisited The redistributive effect and progressivity of taxes revisited An international comparison across the EU with EUROMOD Gerlinde Verbist University of Antwerp, Centre for Social Policy Francesco Figari University

More information

UPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT

UPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT 1 Oct 213 Macro & Strategy Equity Credit Commodities 13 13 #1 Global Strategy #1 Multi Asset Research #3 Global Economics #2 Equity Quant #2 Index Analysis #3 SRI Research 12 sector teams in the Top 1

More information

SMEs access to finance survey 2014

SMEs access to finance survey 2014 EUROPEAN COMMISSION MEMO Brussels, 12 November 2014 SMEs access to finance survey 2014 This memo outlines the results of a survey undertaken by the European Commission to provide policy makers with evidence

More information

Does euro area membership affect the relation between GDP growth and public debt?

Does euro area membership affect the relation between GDP growth and public debt? Does euro area membership affect the relation between GDP growth and public debt? Christian Dreger Hans-Eggert Reimers European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder) Department of Business Administration

More information

Key Highlights on Italian Economy

Key Highlights on Italian Economy Key Highlights on Italian Economy Incontro con l Ambasciatore Reinhard Schäfers e il prof. Roland Berger Franco Bassanini 25 Marzo 2014 Cassa depositi e prestiti Italian economy / Key highlights GDP is

More information

WHITE PAPER NO. III. Why a Common Eurozone Bond Isn t Such a Good Idea

WHITE PAPER NO. III. Why a Common Eurozone Bond Isn t Such a Good Idea CENTER FOR FINANCIAL STUDIES WHITE PAPER NO. III JULY 2009 Why a Common Eurozone Bond Isn t Such a Good Idea Otmar Issing Europe s World, Brussels, Belgium Center for Financial Studies Goethe-Universität

More information

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 213 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist Summary of presentation Global economy slowly exiting recession but

More information

Delia Velculescu, IMF April 1, 2011

Delia Velculescu, IMF April 1, 2011 Delia Velculescu, IMF April 1, 2011 Several CEE countries have reduced pre-funding of future liabilities since 2009: Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, and Estonia: temporary measures and fiscal consolidation

More information

General Government debt: a quick way to improve comparability

General Government debt: a quick way to improve comparability General Government debt: a quick way to improve comparability DEMBIERMONT Christian* BIS Bank for International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland Christian.Dembiermont@bis.org In simple words the General

More information

What do the recent regional GDP statistics tell us about Cohesion?

What do the recent regional GDP statistics tell us about Cohesion? Analysis from the CPMR Secretariat July 2015 What do the recent regional GDP statistics tell us about Cohesion? Headline messages - Recent regional GDP statistics reveal that regional disparities are on

More information

Organic Agriculture in Europe What does the future bring?

Organic Agriculture in Europe What does the future bring? Organic Agriculture in Europe What does the future bring? The organic market in Europe Status quo, perspectives and challenges Organic Market in Europe Contents Current situation Perspectives until 2005

More information

INFLATION DIFFERENTIALS IN THE EURO AREA: POTENTIAL CAUSES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

INFLATION DIFFERENTIALS IN THE EURO AREA: POTENTIAL CAUSES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS E C B E Z B E K T B C E E K P INFLATION DIFFERENTIALS IN THE EURO AREA: POTENTIAL CAUSES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS September 23 INFLATION DIFFERENTIALS IN THE EURO AREA: POTENTIAL CAUSES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

More information

Public Debt and Contingent Liabilities: A Cross-Country Comparison

Public Debt and Contingent Liabilities: A Cross-Country Comparison Public Debt and Contingent Liabilities: A Cross-Country Comparison Melchior Vella and Gevit Duca * 1. Contingent Liabilities 1.1 What are contingent liabilities? Contingent liabilities are obligations

More information

Insurance corporations and pension funds in OECD countries

Insurance corporations and pension funds in OECD countries Insurance corporations and pension funds in OECD countries Massimo COLETTA (Bank of Italy) Belén ZINNI (OECD) UNECE, Expert Group on National Accounts, Geneva - 3 May 2012 Outline Motivations Insurance

More information

The adjustment of the Spanish Real Estate Sector. May 2011

The adjustment of the Spanish Real Estate Sector. May 2011 The adjustment of the Spanish Real Estate Sector May 2011 Although struck by the crisis, Spain is a solid economy, showing signs of recovery Spain resumes an upward trend In the closing months of 2010,

More information

ACCESS TO FINANCE. of SMEs in the euro area, European Commission and European Central Bank (ECB), November 2013.

ACCESS TO FINANCE. of SMEs in the euro area, European Commission and European Central Bank (ECB), November 2013. ACCESS TO FINANCE Improving access to finance is essential to restoring growth and enhancing competitiveness. Investment and innovation are not possible without adequate financing. Difficulties in accessing

More information

EUROPEAN SEMESTER THEMATIC FICHE ACCESS TO FINANCE

EUROPEAN SEMESTER THEMATIC FICHE ACCESS TO FINANCE EUROPEAN SEMESTER THEMATIC FICHE ACCESS TO FINANCE Access to finance is key to business development. Investment and innovation are not possible without adequate financing. A difficulty in getting finance

More information

EU JAPAN SUMMIT A EU27 EXTERNAL TRADE DEFICIT OF 32 BILLION EURO WITH JAPAN IN 2006 *

EU JAPAN SUMMIT A EU27 EXTERNAL TRADE DEFICIT OF 32 BILLION EURO WITH JAPAN IN 2006 * EU JAPAN SUMMIT A EU27 EXTERNAL TRADE DEFICIT OF 32 BILLION EURO WITH JAPAN IN 2006 * SURPLUS OF 8 BN EURO FOR TRADE IN SERVICES Between 2000 and 2006, EU27 exports of goods to Japan fell slightly in value,

More information

4 Distribution of Income, Earnings and Wealth

4 Distribution of Income, Earnings and Wealth 4 Distribution of Income, Earnings and Wealth Indicator 4.1 Indicator 4.2a Indicator 4.2b Indicator 4.3a Indicator 4.3b Indicator 4.4 Indicator 4.5a Indicator 4.5b Indicator 4.6 Indicator 4.7 Income per

More information

ECONOMIC AND MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS

ECONOMIC AND MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS Box 6 SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREA: ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE AND FINANCING CONDITIONS This box reviews the key role played by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the euro area

More information

Managing the Fragility of the Eurozone. Paul De Grauwe University of Leuven

Managing the Fragility of the Eurozone. Paul De Grauwe University of Leuven Managing the Fragility of the Eurozone Paul De Grauwe University of Leuven Paradox Gross government debt (% of GDP) 100 90 80 70 UK Spain 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

More information

Current account core-periphery dualism in the EMU. Tatiana Cesaroni (Bank of Italy) and Roberta De Santis (Istat)

Current account core-periphery dualism in the EMU. Tatiana Cesaroni (Bank of Italy) and Roberta De Santis (Istat) Current account core-periphery dualism in the EMU Tatiana Cesaroni (Bank of Italy) and Roberta De Santis (Istat) Motivation (i) starting from the beginning of 90ies Eurozone CA as a whole has remained

More information

Social dumping and free movement: Overview of current issues from an economic point of view

Social dumping and free movement: Overview of current issues from an economic point of view Social dumping and free movement: Overview of current issues from an economic point of view Prof. dr. Jozef Pacolet & Frederic De Wispelaere Design Charles & Ray Eames - Hang it all Vitra Statistics on

More information

Economic Outlook of Finland

Economic Outlook of Finland Economic Outlook of Finland Pentti Hakkarainen Deputy Governor 9 June 2011 1 2 Heading for stable monetary conditions 1865 1999 MARKKA joins silver standard EURO taken into use 3 Two roles of the Bank

More information

Fact and figures about intra-eu labour mobility

Fact and figures about intra-eu labour mobility Fact and figures about intra-eu labour mobility Laurent Aujean Employment analysis Unit DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion Leuven, 13 October 2014 Social Europe Outline 1. Main figures on intra-eu

More information

Fiscal Consolidation During a Depression

Fiscal Consolidation During a Depression NIESR Fiscal Consolidation During a Depression Nitika Bagaria*, Dawn Holland** and John van Reenen* *London School of Economics **National Institute of Economic and Social Research October 2012 Project

More information

EUROPE 2020 TARGETS: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

EUROPE 2020 TARGETS: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT EUROPE 2020 TARGETS: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT Research, development and innovation are key policy components of the EU strategy for economic growth: Europe 2020. By fostering market take-up of new, innovative

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Finland

More information

Joint Research Centre (JRC) Economic Analysis of Electronic Identification (EID) of Small Ruminants in Member States

Joint Research Centre (JRC) Economic Analysis of Electronic Identification (EID) of Small Ruminants in Member States 1 Joint Research Centre (JRC) Economic Analysis of Electronic Identification (EID) of Small Ruminants in Member States IPSC - Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen Ispra - Italy http://ipsc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

More information

Governor Erkki Liikanen Bank of Finland. Monetary policy and its transmission to the economy

Governor Erkki Liikanen Bank of Finland. Monetary policy and its transmission to the economy Governor Erkki Liikanen Bank of Finland Monetary policy and its transmission to the economy 9.6.2015 1 1. Commitment to accommodative monetary policy benefits the economic outlook 2 Interest rate policy

More information

64/2014-23 April 2014

64/2014-23 April 2014 64/2014-23 April 2014 Provision of deficit and debt data for 2013 - first notification Euro area and EU28 government deficit at 3.0% and 3.3% of GDP respectively Government debt at 92.6% and 87.1% In 2013,

More information

A European Unemployment Insurance Scheme

A European Unemployment Insurance Scheme A European Unemployment Insurance Scheme Necessary? Desirable? Optimal? Grégory Claeys, Research Fellow, Bruegel Zsolt Darvas, Senior Fellow, Bruegel Guntram Wolff, Director, Bruegel July, 2014 Key messages

More information

Intellektuelles Kapital als Unternehmens- und Standortfaktor

Intellektuelles Kapital als Unternehmens- und Standortfaktor EFFAS - The European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies ÖVFA - Österreichische Vereinigung für Finanzanalyse und Asset Management Intellektuelles Kapital als Unternehmens- und Standortfaktor Die

More information

World Trade in 2010 and 2011. May 6, 2010 Milan. Bart De Ketelbutter

World Trade in 2010 and 2011. May 6, 2010 Milan. Bart De Ketelbutter World Trade in 2010 and 2011 AIECE General Meeting May 6, 2010 Milan Bart De Ketelbutter World trade in 2010-2011 World economy 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4

More information

Except for China (& Ukraine), OK?

Except for China (& Ukraine), OK? Except for China (& Ukraine), OK? Global economic & market outlook Riga, May 28, 2014 Harald Magnus Andreassen +47 23 23 82 60 hma@swedbank.no Usually, it has paid well off to be a sober optimist Usually,

More information

Is the Eurocrisisover? Paul De Grauwe London School of Economics

Is the Eurocrisisover? Paul De Grauwe London School of Economics Is the Eurocrisisover? Paul De Grauwe London School of Economics Outline of presentation Legacy of the sovereign debt crisis Design failures of Eurozone Redesigning the Eurozone Towards a political union?

More information

PRUDENT RISK MANAGEMENT IN TIMES OF UNCERTAINTY. Torsten Jeworrek

PRUDENT RISK MANAGEMENT IN TIMES OF UNCERTAINTY. Torsten Jeworrek PRUDENT RISK MANAGEMENT IN TIMES OF UNCERTAINTY Torsten Jeworrek Monte Carlo, 9 September 2012 Macroeconomic Outlook Global economy slowing down, outlook sees only modest improvements highly uncertain

More information

Implementing the cooperation mechanisms of the RES directive current status and open questions

Implementing the cooperation mechanisms of the RES directive current status and open questions Implementing the cooperation mechanisms of the RES directive current status and open questions Corinna Klessmann, Ecofys Germany RE-SHAPING Workshop, Vilnius, 16.05.2011 Supported by Intelligent Energy

More information

Special Eurobarometer 379 FUTURE OF EUROPE REPORT. This survey has been requested by the European Commission, Directorate-General for Communication.

Special Eurobarometer 379 FUTURE OF EUROPE REPORT. This survey has been requested by the European Commission, Directorate-General for Communication. Special Eurobarometer 379 FUTURE OF EUROPE REPORT Fieldwork: December 2011 Publication: April 2012 This survey has been requested by the European Commission, Directorate-General for Communication. http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/index_en.htm

More information

Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012. Mehmet Şimşek. Minister of Finance

Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012. Mehmet Şimşek. Minister of Finance Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012 Mehmet Şimşek Minister of Finance 1 Outline Turkey: Short Term Outlook Managing a Soft Landing Fallout from the Euro Crisis Turkey & MENA REBALANCING Growing ON

More information

Fiscal sustainability, long-term interest rates and debt management

Fiscal sustainability, long-term interest rates and debt management Fiscal sustainability, long-term interest rates and debt management Fabrizio Zampolli Bank for International Settlements Basel A presentation at the Dubrovnik Economic Conference 13-14 June 2013 The opinions

More information

Taxation trends in the European Union EU27 tax ratio fell to 39.3% of GDP in 2008 Steady decline in top corporate income tax rate since 2000

Taxation trends in the European Union EU27 tax ratio fell to 39.3% of GDP in 2008 Steady decline in top corporate income tax rate since 2000 DG TAXUD 95/2010-28 June 2010 Taxation trends in the European Union EU27 tax ratio fell to 39.3% of GDP in 2008 Steady decline in top corporate income tax rate since 2000 The overall tax-to-gdp ratio 1

More information

Update of trade weights data underlying the EERs and HCIs: extending the group of 20 trading partners to include Croatia from 1 July 2013

Update of trade weights data underlying the EERs and HCIs: extending the group of 20 trading partners to include Croatia from 1 July 2013 1 Update of trade weights data underlying the EERs and HCIs: extending the group of 20 trading partners to include Croatia from 1 July 2013 The trade weights underlying the calculation of the effective

More information

Spain and the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis. Guillermo de la Dehesa. Chairman of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Spain and the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis. Guillermo de la Dehesa. Chairman of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Spain and the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis Guillermo de la Dehesa Chairman of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Paper prepared for Resolving the European Debt Crisis, a conference hosted

More information

Labor market reforms in Europe towards more flexicure labor markets?

Labor market reforms in Europe towards more flexicure labor markets? Labor market reforms in Europe towards more flexicure labor markets? (joint work with Paul Marx and Caroline Wehner) Werner Eichhorst ILO / IZA Conference on Assessing Labor Market Reforms Geneva, 10 March

More information

Euro-zone debt crisis and Macro outlook

Euro-zone debt crisis and Macro outlook Euro-zone debt crisis and Macro outlook Carl Hammer Chefstrateg, Valuta 2011 vs 2008 Positives: Corporate profitability and balance sheets EM growth resilience (China is crucial) Readiness amongst authorities

More information

Re-Thinking Sovereign Debt Summit

Re-Thinking Sovereign Debt Summit The Only Win-Win Solution for Europe Requires a Fresh Start on Greece State-Building and a Fresh Start on Greece Correctly Calculating Debt Relief from Prior Restructurings -- Japonica Partners Internal

More information

The state of the EU crisis: possible scenarios. Johannes Jäger

The state of the EU crisis: possible scenarios. Johannes Jäger The state of the EU crisis: possible scenarios Johannes Jäger 1 The state of the EU crisis: possible scenarios 1. The crisis at the surface 2. Theoretical perspective: political economy 3. Causes and dynamics

More information

Euro area growth outlook 2012

Euro area growth outlook 2012 Euro area growth outlook 212 A rising tide lifts all boats 2 December 211 Allan von Mehren Chief Analyst Head of International Macro +45 4512 855 alvo@danskebank.dk Five reasons why euro recession will

More information

The Tax Burden of Typical Workers in the EU 27 2013 Edition

The Tax Burden of Typical Workers in the EU 27 2013 Edition (Cover page) The Tax Burden of Typical Workers in the EU 27 2013 Edition James Rogers & Cécile Philippe May 2013 Data provided by NEW DIRECTION Page 1 of 16 The Tax Burden of Typical Workers in the EU

More information

What if BAU would come true?

What if BAU would come true? What if BAU would come true? Scanning transport CO 2 emissions in the EU Petri Tapio & Jyrki Luukkanen Finland Futures Research Centre The approach Introduction of general trends on EU15 level GDP Transport

More information

Small countries in big unions the Austrian experience

Small countries in big unions the Austrian experience Small countries in big unions the Austrian experience Ewald Nowotny Governor of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank University of Oxford, 28-30 September 2015 Small is beautiful. (Leopold Kohr, Austrian

More information

COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT STATISTICAL ANNEX. Accompanying the document

COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT STATISTICAL ANNEX. Accompanying the document EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 28.11.2014 SWD(2014) 346 final COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT STATISTICAL ANNEX Accompanying the document REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL,

More information

European Sovereign Debt Crisis Policy Proposal Presented by the French Republic 9 November 2012

European Sovereign Debt Crisis Policy Proposal Presented by the French Republic 9 November 2012 European Sovereign Debt Crisis Policy Proposal Presented by the French Republic 9 November 2012 The European Redemption Pact We propose the enactment of the European Redemption Pact, with several amendments.

More information

Living in an area of Justice, Freedom and Security

Living in an area of Justice, Freedom and Security Justice, Freedom and European Migration Network Directorate General Justice, Freedom and Sandra PRATT, Immigration and Asylum unit, DG Justice, Freedom and Content Policy Background Objectives of the European

More information

The Tax Burden of Typical Workers in the EU 28 2015

The Tax Burden of Typical Workers in the EU 28 2015 The Tax Burden of Typical Workers in the EU 28 2015 James Rogers Cécile Philippe Institut Économique Molinari, Paris Bruxelles TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract 2 Background 2 Main Results 3 On average, a respite

More information

The International Financial System. Prof. Ian Giddy New York University. Global Financial Architecture

The International Financial System. Prof. Ian Giddy New York University. Global Financial Architecture Exchange Rate Systems and Policies/1 The International Financial System Prof. Ian Giddy New York University Global Financial Architecture Institutions Issues Exchange-rate system Copyright 2002 Ian H.

More information

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE SINCE THE STOCK MARKET BUBBLE

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE SINCE THE STOCK MARKET BUBBLE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE SINCE THE STOCK MARKET BUBBLE A JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE STUDY Vice Chairman Jim Saxton (R-NJ) Joint Economic Committee United States Congress March 2004 Executive Summary

More information

Where is the Euro Area heading?

Where is the Euro Area heading? Seppo Honkapohja Bank of Finland Where is the Euro Area heading? Breakfast seminar in European Chamber of Commerce, Hong Kong Friday, April 22, 2016 20.4.2016 1 Advanced main economic regions: Recovery

More information

Estonia and the European Debt Crisis Juhan Parts

Estonia and the European Debt Crisis Juhan Parts Estonia and the European Debt Crisis Juhan Parts Estonia has had a quick recovery from the recent recession and its economy is in better shape than before the crisis. It is now much leaner and significantly

More information